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2022 California Handle and Purses by the Numbers

The main takeaway from last year's California purse and handle numbers is one of stasis, with no significant movement in any one direction compared to 2021.

A roughly 2.5% increase in the number of California races run in 2022 over 2021 is framed against a half-percentage point decrease in purses and an even smaller fraction of a percentage decrease in all-source handle.

“It was like holding serve in 2022,” said Bill Nader, newly minted president and chief executive officer of the Thoroughbred Owners of California (TOC), which once again put the figures together for the TDN. The report can be accessed here.

“During the pandemic, we were able to soldier through and then we showed some impressive increases,” Nader added, referencing a 17% uptick in all-source handle and a 19% increase in purse generation in 2021 over the year prior. “This points now to 2023 as being a critical year for us to push forward again.”

It also means that betting trends that have shaped the industry in the Golden State since 2018–a useful baseline year for the sport's health coming before a well-publicized welfare crisis and a global pandemic–are largely still in effect.

The amount California bettors wager on races in their own state appears to remain closely tied to the number of races staged. At the same time, Californian bettors continue to wager more and more on out-of-state races.

“It's not simply the number of races. We've got to look at it through the lens of the bettor,” said Nader, when asked about how better to keep the Californian betting dollar in-house.

“It's trying to make sure we put all pieces of the puzzle together which is to have those races attractive from a customer perspective, where we can show improvement in field size and quality of competition,” he added.

As a bright spot, Nader highlighted how horseplayers appear to be returning to brick and mortar facilities to place their bets after a pandemic-led wholesale swing to ADW platforms.

“It shows a shift–people are coming back to the races with greater frequency,” he said, before pointing to what he sees as tentative sign of encouragement for 2023, like improved field sizes during the current Santa Anita season as compared to 2022, and the advent this winter of some heavy-hitters in the saddle via the likes of Frankie Dettori, Juan Hernandez, Kazushi Kimura and Flavien Prat.

“I think all of that stuff when you put it together,” he added, “we have a pretty attractive proposition.”

Handle: Notable Themes

1–The amount Californians are wagering on Californian races has improved very marginally compared to 2021, with a 2.5% increase in races during that time corresponding to a little more than 4.5% increase in wagering within the state.

Furthermore, comparing 2018 to 2022, as the number of races has shrunk, the amount Californians wager on races in their own state has shrunk accordingly.

Over that time, there has been a nearly 20% decrease in the amount of races run in California, corresponding to a like-for-like 20% decrease in the amount Californians wagered on these races.

2–Californians in 2022 bet a little more on races staged outside of their own state compared to 2021, wagering 2.5% more on these contests.

This is consistent with what has been a massive upward trend over the past five years in this arena, with a nearly 24% increase in the amount Californians are wagering on out-of-state races when comparing 2022 to 2018.

During that same period, all-source handle dropped by 1%.

3–A 2.5% increase in races from 2021 to 2022 saw a small drop of nearly 4% from out-of-state wagering on California races.

However, comparing last year's numbers to 2018, we see that a 20% drop in races staged in California has seen only a 9% drop in wagering from out-of-state bettors.

4–Last year, California bettors made a shift away from ADW wagering back towards brick and mortar facilities as compared to 2021 numbers, but the overall swing towards ADW wagering compared to pre-pandemic days is still marked.

When looking at the total wagering in 2018 from within California (both on in-state and out-of-state races), approximately 58% was brick and mortar and 42% was ADW.

In 2021, the dynamic was approximately 33% brick and mortar and 67% ADW. Last year it was approximately 40% brick and mortar and 60% ADW.

Purses: Notable Points

1–A 2.5% increase in races from 2021 to 2022 corresponded to a half a percentage point loss to the total purse account.

Comparing 2022 to 2018, a 20% decrease in races saw an overall decline in purses of a little more than 6%.

2–Comparing 2022 to 2021, purses generated from out-of-state wagering on California races dropped nearly 4%.

3–When comparing 2022 to 2021, purses generated from wagering by California betters increased by 1.5%.

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At Los Alamitos, Kumin the Breeder Beats Kumin the Owner

As the field crossed the wire in Saturday's GII Los Alamitos Futurity, Sol Kumin experienced the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat all at once. Kumin is the co-owner of second-place finisher Carmel Road (Quality Road) and third-place finisher Fort Bragg (Tapit). They ran well but couldn't outrun Practical Move (Practical Joke). Along with Chad Brown, Kumin bred, but does not own, the race winner.

“It was cool because I always loved the winner's dam, Ack Naughty (Afleet Alex),” he said. “Would I have loved to see one of the two horses we had in there with Baffert win and run off the screen? I probably would have been happier had that happened. But to look up and be able to say you bred the winner and owned the horses that ran second and third is fun. But I still enjoy the racing part of it more. I sometimes wish I still owned the horse than won.”

Kumin, one of the most prominent owners in the sport, is known for being a partner on dozens of top horses every year. He says he has no intention of becoming a breeder on a large scale, but will keep the occasional mare for breeding purposes.

“I don't think I'll ever have a commercial breeding business,” he said. “I'm too emotional and I know myself well enough to know what my limitations are.”

He did, however, keep Ack Naughty. Trained by Brown and a New York-bred, she debuted in 2014 and won four times from 15 starts. She finished second in the Chelsea Flower S. and the Mount Vernon S. and was third in the John Hettinger S.

“We raced the horse and loved her,” Kumin said. “She was among one of the first crops of horses that we owned. When it came time to sell her, I didn't want to. We put a value on her and bought out our partners. Chad loved her, too. She ran a bunch and always tried really hard. We had a little crooked yearling who turned into this big, pretty horse.”

When Brown was told of Kumin's plans he asked if he could stay involved and the two went in as partners on the mare. In her first year, she was bred to Violence and produced a colt who has yet to race. Her second foal is Practical Move. She was bred to Practical Joke because Brown trained the sire and owns a share in him.

Normally, with Kumin, the plan is to race the horses he bred. But he explained that Brown prefers that the foals are sold at auction. Practical Move RNA'd for $90,000 at the 2021 Keeneland September sale and then sold for $230,000 as a 2-year-old at the OBS April sale. His owners are Pierre Jean Amestoy Jr., Leslie A. Amestoy and Rogers Beasley. He is trained by Baffert's former assistant, Tim Yakteen.

Coming into the Los Alamitos Futurity, Practical Move had yet to cross the wire first but was placed first through disqualification in an Oct. 10 maiden at Santa Anita in which Kumin's Fort Bragg was taken down. After that, he ran third in the GIII Bob Hope S.

“I knew this horse really well,” Kumin said. “Not only did I breed him but every time he ran we had horses in there against him. I had watched all of his races.”

Kumin started out with five to seven mares which he boards with Des Ryan at Dell Ridge Farm. But from such small numbers he has enjoyed considerable success. He bred and owns Fluffy Socks (Slumber {GB}), the winner of the GII Sands Point S., the GIII Jimmy Durante S. and the Selima S. He also bred and owns Grade III winner Sy Dog (Slumber {GB}).

“We have had three graded stakes winners out of something like ten horses that we bred,” he said. “It's been pretty outrageous so far.”

His collection of home breds is about to grow. Brown was the co-owner of Slumber (Cacique {Ire}), who won the GI Manhattan S. in 2015. Slumber began his stallion career at Calumet Farm but, Kumin said, the farm considered retiring him and sending him to Old Friends because he was breeding to only a small number of mares. When told of that, Kumin said he bought the stallion for $1 and sent him to Rockridge Stud in New York, where he stands for $7,500. Kumin is optimistic that Slumber can be a success and is supporting him at stud.

“We bred 20 mares to Slumber last year and 16 or so the year before so we're really starting to pump things up,” he said. “We have him in New York and will keep breeding 15 to 20 mares to him every year. Let's see if they will be as good as we think they can be. This has been my first real effort as a breeder. We're not going to sell many. We are breeding them to race. They will go to top trainers and, hopefully, we'll get some good horses out of this.”

Whether it's with Carmel Road, Fort Bragg or National Treasure (Quality Road), who was third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Kumin has an excellent shot of having a horse in next year's Kentucky Derby, where they might meet Practical Move. He'll root first for the horses he owns. But if he has to lose, it might as well be to the horse he bred.

“I look at it like this, we have a mom that I loved the whole time we had her and now she's turned out to be a producer,” he said. “There's nothing wrong with that.”

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Practical Joke Colt Upsets Los Al Futurity

In each of his four previous trips to the post, Practical Move (Practical Joke) had finished behind Bob Baffert-trained runners, but the bay colt–conditioned by former Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen–exacted his revenge in a big spot Saturday afternoon, outfinishing pacesetting Carmel Road (Quality Road) to upset the GII Los Alamitos Futurity as the 10-1 second-longest price on the board. Fort Bragg (Tapit), who was demoted from an apparent victory over Practical Move two starts back, completed the trifecta, while hot favorite 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Lion (Justify) was a spent force three furlongs from home and trailed in.

Carmel Road hit the ground running and led them along early as Arabian Lion was no better than three wide rounding the first turn before rolling forward to prompt from second. Ramon Vasquez had Practical Move in the early vanguard, but was only too happy to see Arabian Lion go on and took the sit from third. Positions were unchanged through the middle fractions, but when Practical Move went for a run underneath the odds-on pick at the three-eighths, there was no response from Arabian Lion, and Carmel Road became the target. Sent inside of that one in upper stretch, Practical Move struck to the lead about a furlong and a half from the wire and was pushed out to a comfortable score.

A debut second to the Baffert-conditioned 'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock (Arrogate) on Del Mar debut Aug. 13, Practical Move was third at the seaside oval the following month to National Treasure (Quality Road), who would go on to be second to Cave Rock in the GI American Pharoah S. and third in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Put up to the victory after Fort Bragg hampered him badly in the final stages of a one-mile Santa Anita maiden Oct. 10, Practical Move was a latest third to Baffert stablemates Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) and 'Rising Star' Newgate (Into Mischief) in the GIII Bob Hope S. down in San Diego County Nov. 20.

Baffert had won the Futurity 13 times going back to the Hollywood Park days and had unsaddled the winners in seven of the eight renewals at this Orange County facility.

“I'm surprised because we were going up against the king, but I'm not surprised because my horse was doing really well,” Yakteen admitted. “That it all worked out is just fantastic. We had a great trip and I'm just thrilled to death with the horse and his effort today. This one's really special because Bob is a good friend and we have a great relationship. I hate to take him down, but it ended up that I got the better of him today and he usually gets the better of me.”

Pedigree Notes:

Practical Move is the 18th worldwide black-type winner (11th in the U.S.) and 10th graded/group winner worldwide (fourth in the U.S.) for his young sire and was bred by Practical Joke's trainer in partnership with Head of Plains Partners.

Produced by a three-times stakes-placed half-sister to the multiple black-type winners So Lonesome (Awesome Again) and No Spin (Johannesburg) and from the family of Commissioner and Laugh Track, Practical Move has a weanling half-brother by Complexity and his dam most recently visited Upstart.

Saturday, Los Alamitos
LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY-GII, $200,000, Los Alamitos, 12-17, 2yo, 1 1/16m, 1:41.65, ft.
1–PRACTICAL MOVE, 120, c, 2, by Practical Joke
                1st Dam: Ack Naughty (MSP, $310,450), by Afleet Alex
                2nd Dam: Dash for Money, by General Meeting
                3rd Dam: Hot Lear, by Lear Fan
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($90,000
RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR). O-Pierre Jean
Amestoy, Jr., Leslie A. Amestoy & Roger K. Beasley; B-Chad
Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen; J-Ramon
Vazquez. $120,000. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-2, $194,200.
Werk Nick Rating: B. Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Carmel Road, 120, c, 2, Quality Road–Inspired, by Unbridled's
Song. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($650,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket
Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay
Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine
Donovan; B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds, LLC (KY); T-Bob
Baffert. $40,000.
3–Fort Bragg, 120, c, 2, Tapit–March X Press, by Shanghai
Bobby. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($700,000
Ylg '21 FTKOCT). O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket
Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay
Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine
Donovan; B-SF Bloodstock LLC & Henry Field Bloodstock (KY);
T-Bob Baffert. $24,000.
Margins: 3 1/4, 4 1/4, 2. Odds: 10.60, 4.60, 4.20.
Also Ran: Tall Boy, Arabian Lion. Click for the Equibase.com chart or the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Big Ticket Colts Dot Los Al Futurity on Saturday

The Kentucky Derby points are back on the table in December. Well, for trainers Leandro Mora and Tim Yakteen that is, as it is once again time for the GII Los Alamitos Futurity. In prior contests, it would have been 10-4-2 or 1 to the top four finishers, but since we only have a five-horse field, and with Bob Baffert currently forced to abrogate his Derby egg hunt despite yet another re-christening of his legal stab at Churchill Downs, it is just Mora and Yakteen that are eligible.

Out of the handful that will go on Saturday afternoon at the cozy palm-laden oval that continues to breathe–we hope it does, because we need it to survive–you will see some major sale purchases strut their 2-year-old stuff. Historically, this race is Baffert's foregone conclusion, as he has netted 13 of them, starting with Real Quiet back in 1997. But last year, Reddam Racing's homebred, Slow Down Andy (Nyquist), ran contrary to his moniker by getting the best of Messier (Empire Maker) to end the Hall of Fame conditioner's streak at seven.

Baffert comes prepared this time and Messier's ownership group of SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, Robert E. Masterson, Stonestreet Stables, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital, and Catherine Donovan is well represented with a pair of promising super colts in Carmel Road (Quality Road) and Fort Bragg (Tapit). The former went for $650,000 at the KEESEP sale last year, while the latter did him one better by $50,000 at FTKOTC. Tom Ryan, the Managing Partner of SF Racing, said when reached by phone, “We've got 10 nice 2-year-old winners on the board this year, and Bob and his team are very focused on 2023.”

Carmel Road, who has a half-brother named Ambition (Street Sense) out of Inspire who RNAd at FTNAUG this year, lost steam and ended up second-to-last at Keeneland as would-be 2-year-old champion Forte (Violence) nosed ahead for his score in the GI Claiborne Farm Breeders' Futurity Oct. 8. That poor showing was nothing like his maiden victory in the race prior when he won in a geared-down fashion by 8 3/4 at Del Mar Aug. 26. Ryan said about the letdown, “We ended up drawing the outside with Carmel Road in the 14 hole, and the 14 hole at Keeneland with a two-year-old, it's not ideal. So that race is a complete throw out. His last piece of work was a sparkling piece of work. Hopefully, he's ready for this.” Sporting some sharp recent breezes at Santa Anita (Dec. 9, 5f; .59, 1/30), we can expect him to be below his 2-1 morning-line by race time.

As for his stablemate, the 4-1-priced Fort Bragg comes calling after he was disqualified at Santa Anita Oct. 10 and placed second, and then officially broke his maiden Nov. 4 by 3/4 lengths over next out winner, Reincarnate. “He is a beautiful horse that just continues to develop,” Ryan said. “Flavian Prat breezed him last week, was impressed enough to want to ride him. He is coming back from a vacation in France to ride him here. It's a tough, demanding race, but we hope he's up to the challenge.”

Opposing this pair is the last of Baffert's trio, Zedan Racing Stables's $600,000 OBSAPR bay colt by Justify, Arabian Lion. Stretching out around two turns, this 4-5 morning-line favorite has posted a pair of Beyer Speed Figures that sparkled; 92 at Santa Anita with a first-out win Oct. 9, and then a second-place finish with a 93 at Keeneland against optional claimers Nov. 4. All three of these runners could be looking to grab the lead early, and hold off any would-be challengers.

As for Yakteen's Practical Move (Practical Joke), he is not without recent form, nor should he be underestimated. The $230,000 OBSAPR buy ran second to Fort Bragg in that race Oct. 10, despite a poor stumble at the start and getting bumped by his rival in the final furlong. The colt ran third to Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GIII Bob Hope S. Nov. 20. Recall, he is a horse that won at first-asking at Del Mar July 24, was the seized the GIII Best Pal S. Aug. 14, and was second in the GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity Sept. 11. If he can solve his gate issues, then he might be a player if a pace reactor failure occurs.

The big tickets will try to fly early at Los Alamitos. Baffert may not have access to those Derby points yet, but what is assured is this is going to be an intriguing renewal of the Futurity.

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