Longines HKIR 2023: All Four Favourites Can Be Taken On

Some 44 horses representing England, France, Ireland, Japan, Singapore and the United Arab Emirates in addition to a typically deep group representing the home team will line up for Sunday's Longines Hong Kong International Races at Sha Tin Racecourse in the New Territories, with record prizemoney of HK$118 million (£12 million/US$15.1 million) up for grabs across the four events.

There figure to be clear favourites in each of the four races, but each come with his own set of question marks.

 

  • Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) loves the Sha Tin 2000 metres–his local C & D record is nearly unassailable–but having endured a tough race when just winning the G1 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley six weeks ago, how short a price is one willing to accept? He looks to become the first repeat winner of the Cup since California Memory in 2011/2012.

 

  • Three-time Horse of the Year Golden Sixty (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro) goes for a third Mile in four years, but takes on a serious group of Japanese milers while returning from a 224-day absence.

 

  • Lucky Sweynesse (NZ) (Sweynesse {Aus}) is the best of the local sprinters and had no luck in running last year, but he's been curiously managed this term and has been lacking a killer instinct, albeit with some excuses.

 

  • Four of the last seven runnings of the Vase have gone to Japan, and Carrot Racing's Lebensstil (Jpn) (Real Steel {Jpn}) has been the talking horse this week, but he's never faced a test as strong as this, even on the back of a victory over a ring-rusty G1 Satsuki Sho (2000 Guineas) winner Sol Oriens (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}) in the G2 St Lite Kinen last time.

 

So, let's take a contrarian approach to Sunday's meeting and build arguments for others, some well-backed in the markets and others with rougher chances:

Longines Hong Kong Cup

The progressive Japanese duo of Prognosis (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn})–a pace-disadvantaged runner-up to Romantic Warrior in the G1 FWD QE II Cup in April and a latest third to horse of the world Equinox (Jpn) (Kitasan Black {Jpn}) in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn)–and Rousham Park (Jpn) (Harbinger {GB}) will have their supporters, as will G1 Tattersalls Gold Cup hero Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}), awkward draw and all.

Gousserie Racing's Horizon Dore (Fr) (Dabirsim {Fr}) may be the one they're trying to beat in next year's Cup, but the G2 Prix Dollar Sept. 30 capped a four-race winning streak at home and he was scarcely disgraced when beaten under two lengths by King of Steel (Wootton Bassett {GB}) in the G1 QIPCO Champion S. Oct. 21, where the ground was unsuitably easy and he was perhaps asked for his effort sooner than optimal by Mickael Barzalona. It'll be quicker underfoot Sunday and, while not necessarily tipping him to win, he's an each-way chance.

Horizon Dore has a puncher's chance in the Cup | HKJC

Longines Hong Kong Mile

Golden Sixty won this race in 2020 and defended his title 12 months later, but couldn't reel in loose leader California Spangle (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) last December. The latter figures to take some pressure up front from Godolphin's Tribalist (GB) (Farhh {GB}), who must go forward from gate 13. A quicker-than-standard pace would certainly suit Golden Sixty, but the riverside draw in 14 is a serious concern. Double-digit barriers have been overcome before by the likes of Ambitious Dragon (NZ) and Maurice (Jpn) and less-accomplished horses like Beauty Only (Ire), so it's obviously not out of the question, and while few would be shocked if he pulled it off, we're inclined to look elsewhere.

The G1 Mile Championship has been used as a Hong Kong Mile lead-up for Hat Trick (Jpn) (2005) and Maurice (Jpn) (2015)–each of whom won the Kyoto feature before doubling up in Hong Kong. Four of the five Japanese raiders for this year's Mile prepped there–including the victorious Namur (Jpn) (Harbinger {GB}) and narrowly beaten Soul Rush (Jpn) (Rulership {Jpn})–but we are opting for Serifos (Jpn) (Daiwa Major {Jpn}).

Spelled following his runner-up effort to Songline (Jpn) (Kizuna {Jpn}) in June's G1 Yasuda Kinen, he was first-up in the Mile Championship, sat a three- or four-wide trip ahead of midfield without the benefit of cover, came to win the race 200 metres out and ran out of fitness in eighth. He has an inside draw and could settle further back, then make one late dash for glory as he did when winning the Mile Championship in 2022. Here's hoping the speed is on.

Japan's Serifos races second-up in the Mile | HKJC

Longines Hong Kong Sprint

The presence of Japanese speedball Jasper Krone (Frosted), the locally based Victor the Winner (Aus) (Toronado {Ire}) and Sight Success (Aus) (Magnus {Aus}) and G1 Prix de l'Abbaye heroine Highfield Princess (Fr) (Night of Thunder {Ire}) should insure that the Sprint is run at a sound tempo. Now, that fact is as likely to benefit a horse like Lucky Sweynesse as anyone else, but evens seems difficult to take on a horse that–at least to now–hasn't shown that he is materially better than last year. Wellington (Aus) (All Too Hard {Aus}) was the chief beneficiary last year and is likely to improve in his second run of the season and second start for trainer Jamie Richards and is not without a shot at a more attractive quote.

Cristian Demuro takes the ride on Japan's Mad Cool (Ire) (Dark Angel {Ire}), who exits a runner-up effort–beaten a nose–in the G1 Sprinters S. at Nakayama, the same placing earned by Danon Smash (Jpn) before causing a 21-1 boilover in the 2020 Sprint. If that effort is not an aberration, the Sunday Racing runner has an upset chance of his own in a race lacking a true standout.

Longines Hong Kong Vase

It may well eventuate that Lebensstil backs up the hype and should he do so, I'll tip my cap to him and move along. The Vase lost a bit of its lustre when Shahryar (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) was not declared Thursday, but Sunday Racing will also have the regally bred Geraldina (Jpn) (Maurice {Jpn}), who would be a threat on her very best. With the early scratching of Russian Emperor (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), a victory from any of the remaining locals is highly unlikely.

Three-year-old fillies have performed well when tried in the Vase, as the pint-sized Vallee Enchantee (Ire) (Peintre Celebre) (815 pounds) beat the boys in 2003, while Daryakana (Fr) (Selkirk)–all 941 pounds of her–followed suit in 2009. Warm Heart (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) weighed in at 978 at the time declarations were made Thursday and she will try to give both Aidan O'Brien and her majestic late sire a fourth win in the race. Impressive in winning the G2 Ribblesdale S. at Royal Ascot June 22, she was disappointing in the soft when fifth in the G1 Irish Oaks the following month.

She bounced back with determined victories in the G1 Yorkshire Oaks and G1 Prix Vermeille and she might have added the 10-furlong GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf last time but for an other-worldly finish from Inspiral (GB) (Frankel {GB}). She can sit handy to what figures a modest pace and get first run on those that choose to race farther back. She'll get a nine-pound pull in the weights from the older stayers and Ryan Moore rides at 117 for the first time in quite a while.

The Hong Kong Jockey Club proudly calls the HKIR the 'Turf World Championships' and with the quantity of quality on display Sunday, who's to argue, really?

 

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‘It’s Going To Be Difficult’: Golden Sixty Draws Widest For Hong Kong Mile

The obstacles were already considerable for three-time reigning Hong Kong Horse of the Year Golden Sixty (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro) long before connections of the 44 runners for Sunday's Longines Hong Kong International Races meeting took their seats for Thursday's morning barrier draw in the Sha Tin parade ring.

Already a nine-time Group 1 winner and victorious in 25 of his 29 career starts, the 8-year-old has not started since defeating Beauty Joy (Aus) (Sebring {Aus}) in the G1 Champions Mile in late April, a 224-day hiatus. Only twice in his career has he been dealt a double-digit gate, and his chances to register a third victory in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile took a serious blow when owner Stanley Chan selected gate 14 in a field of 14.

“Of course, it's not an ideal draw and it makes things difficult for Vincent,” said trainer Frances Lui. “Midfield with cover, of course (would be best). If you look at the field, I think California Spangle (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}) will lead and he will slow down the pace. Probably this race will be run at a slow pace. It's going to be difficult.”

California Spangle, who prevented a Golden Sixty three-peat 12 months ago, fared far better, as he will break from stall three with Christophe Soumillon taking the ride. Whether he is loose up front is another question, as the Andre Fabre-trained Tribalist (GB) (Farhh {GB}) will have to roll forward from the 13.

No horse as old as eight has won the mile, though Good Ba Ba (Lear Fan), whose record Golden Sixty is trying to equal, won the last of his three Miles aged seven. Beauty Flash (GB) (Footstepsinthesand {GB}) won the 2010 Mile from the 14, though he was an on-pace runner, while standout milers like Ambitious Dragon (NZ) (Pins {Aus}) and Maurice (Jpn) (Screen Hero {Jpn}) won from double-digit draws.

Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}) will be favoured to successfully defend his title in the richest of the afternoon's four events, the HK$36-million G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup over his pet distance of 2000 metres, and while he drew a decent middle gate in seven, he, too, has a few questions to answer. The 5-year-old makes his first local appearance this season, having finished fourth in the G1 Turnbull S. at Flemington Oct. 7 ahead of a hard-fought success in the G1 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley three weeks later. Since clearing quarantine, he's had a winning barrier trial, and connections remain bullish on his chances.

“He's been good. In the morning, that kind of horse is always good,” trainer Danny Shum said of Romantic Warrior, who cost Mick Kinane and the Hong Kong Jockey Club team 300,000gns at Tattersalls October in 2019 before selling to owner Peter Lau for HK$4,800,000 (€517,894) at the Hong Kong International Sale in 2021. “But I think he's still improving. He's been great since Australia, no problem at all.”

Aidan O'Brien is the only trainer with runners in each of Sunday's four races, selecting gate one for G1 Yorkshire Oaks and GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf runner-up Warm Heart (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) and Aesop's Fables (Ire) (No Nay Never) for the Vase and Sprint, respectively. Cairo (Ire) (Quality Road), who will be a longshot in the Mile, drew barrier nine, while Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) has a potentially tricky alley in 10 with a short run to the first corner in the Cup.

The Ballydoyle maestro has started 29 horses at the HKIR for a record of 3-2-1, each of the victories coming in the Vase (Highland Reel, 2015 & 2016, Mogul, 2020). But he feels he's got the right horses to make an impact this year.

“I think there is no doubt that it is,” O'Brien replied when asked if this was the best team he'd brought to Hong Kong. “It's very difficult to win races here and you don't come with second-raters.”

Champion sprinter Lucky Sweynesse (NZ) (Sweynesse {Aus}) will jump favoured in the Sprint from gate five, while G1 Prix de l'Abbaye heroine Highfield Princess (Fr) (Night of Thunder {Ire}) will try to become the first European-based winner of the race from gate nine, with Japanese multiple group-winning speedball Jasper Krone (Frosted) leaving just to her inside.

Shahryar (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}), a latest third in the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, was not among the declared runners for the Vase. According to a HKJC release, he has been identified to have 'a potential health issue' and will return to Japan for further assessment.

 

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Longines HKIR Draw Entries From a Dozen Countries

The 2023 Longines Hong Kong International Races meeting to be held at Sha Tin Racecourse Sunday, Dec. 10, has attracted some 189 entries–including a whopping 68 from Japan–from a total of 12 racing jurisdictions. The four Group 1 races, collectively deemed the 'World Turf Championships, will offer record prizemoney of HK$118 million (£12.4 million/€14.3 million/A$23.8 million/US$15.1 million).

The entries include no fewer than 55 Group 1 winners from around the globe, including Sunday Racing's exciting Japanese Triple Tiara winner Liberty Island (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn}), who was given the option of the G1 Longines Hong Kong Vase over the 2400 metres or the 2000 metres of the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup, the world's richest turf race at the distance at HK$36 million. Though her participation in Hong Kong hinges on her performance in the G1 Japan Cup just two weekends prior, she would in all likelihood face defending champion Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}), fourth in the Oct. 7 G1 Turnbull S. at Flemington and current ante-post favourite for Saturday's G1 Cox Plate at Moonee Valley. Sunday's high-quality renewal of the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) could also produce a runner or two for the Cup in the form of Do Deuce (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}), Jack d'Or (Jpn) (Maurice {Jpn}) and/or Tastiera (Jpn) (Satono Crown {Jpn}).

Aidan O'Brien has 13 horses under his care that are among the HKIR entries, including G1 St Leger hero Continuous (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}), who is also penciled in for a start in the Japan Cup and has entries for both the Cup and the Vase. Luxembourg (Ire) (Camelot {GB}) and Cox Plate entrant Victoria Road (Ire) (Saxon Warrior {Jpn}) are also possible for the Cup, while Paddington (GB) (Siyouni {Fr}) may try to regroup in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Mile after struggling in the bottomless ground on Champion Day at Ascot Oct. 21. The Hong Kong-owned and Ralph Beckett-trained Kinross (GB) (Kingman {GB}), a likely marquee ride at the meeting for Frankie Dettori, is entered for the Mile, where he could clash with two-time winner and multiple Horse of the Year Golden Sixty (Aus) (Medaglia d'Oro), as well as the talented California Spangle (Ire) (Starspangledbanner {Aus}), who served notice with a weight-carrying victory in the G2 Sha Tin Trophy H. when first-up for nearly six months on Oct. 15.

 

Highfield Princess (Fr) (Night of Thunder {Ire}) has eschewed a return trip to America for the GI Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint in favour of an appearance in the G1 Longines Hong Kong Sprint. The 6-year-old mare could square off there with champion local sprinter Lucky Sweynesse (NZ) (Sweynesse {Aus}), who endured a luckless passage in last year's renewal in finishing sixth to Wellington (Aus) (All Too Hard {Aus}). The latter is now conditioned by Jamie Richards, in his second season in Hong Kong, and who has assumed training duties with the retirement of Richard Gibson. Simca Mille (Ire) (Tamayuz {GB}) is a potential HKIR raider from France, having defeated fellow Vase entry Sisfahan (Fr) (Isfahan {Ger}) in the G1 Grosser Preis von Berlin in August.

Since the easing of COVID-related travel restrictions, the connections of Australian-based horses have been more willing to consider HKIR as a post-Melbourne Cup Carnival option, and such is the case this year, as 23 horses have been entered across the four races. The lot is headed up by last year's Melbourne Cup upsetter Gold Trip (Fr) (Outstrip {GB}), four-times Group 1 winner Mr Brightside (NZ) (Bullbars {Aus}) and the ultra-consistent Annabel Neasham-trained Zaaki (GB) (Leroidesanimaux {Brz}), each of whom are among the 12-strong Cox Plate field on Saturday.

A relatively bulky 10-horse entry from North America includes the Bill Mott-trained multiple Grade I winners War Like Goddess (English Channel) and Casa Creed (Jimmy Creed), while trainer Mark Casse is also represented by a pair in Fev Rover (Ire) (Gutaifan {Ire}) and Get Smokin (Get Stormy).

Three-time Group 1 winner Sharp 'n' Smart (NZ) (Redwood {GB}) is the lone entrant from New Zealand, while Singapore's best Lim's Kosciuzsko (Aus) (Kermadec {NZ}) and Famous Jonathon (NZ) (Deep Field {Aus}) from Macau have also been entered.

 

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Favourable Prognosis At Sapporo

Many of the 15 horses signed on for Sunday's G2 Sapporo Kinen were on trial for future events on foreign soil, and while the lion's share of those toiled in the tricky underfoot conditions, Shadai Race Horse's Prognosis (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) was the one standing tallest at the finish as he galloped home a decisive winner.

Winner of the G2 Kinko Sho over the 2000 metres in March, Prognosis accepted an invitation to Hong Kong for the G1 FWD QE II Cup the following month, and, with record-setting Zac Purton at the controls, ran on from the back to finish two lengths adrift of the G1 Cox Plate-bound Romantic Warrior (Ire) (Acclamation {GB}).

Void of early speed, Prognosis managed to get all the way down onto the fence after leaving from gate 13 and raced last but one around the first turn as Unicorn Lion (Ire) (No Nay Never) crossed over from the 15 hole to head them off, as expected. Sensing a moderate pace over a course that had taken plenty of rain, Yuga Kawada asked Prognosis for a middle move at the halfway stage, and the team rallied one off the inside to race just ahead of midfield and just to the outside of the 3-year-old Top Knife (Jpn) (Declaration of War) nearing the third corner. Unicorn Lion hoisted the white flag 600 metres out, and Top Knife took advantage, but Kawada had Prognosis poised four wide at the head of the straight and opened up on them late. Fellow Shadai runner So Valiant (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}) outfinished G1 Dubai Turf runner-up Danon Beluga (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) for third. The winner would be a likely runner in the G1 Tenno Sho (Autumn) Oct. 29 and a return trip to Hong Kong for the G1 Longines Hong Kong Cup is a distinct possibility.

Shahryar (Jpn) (Deep Impact {Jpn}) was using the Sapporo Kinen as a possible steppingstone to the GI Breeders' Cup Turf, but struggled home 11th and was later found to have displaced. He will undergo a corrective procedure and his Breeders' Cup status is in doubt. Win Mighty (Jpn) (Gold Ship {Jpn}) holds Cups entries in Australia, but beat just two home Sunday.

Pedigree Notes:

Shadai acquired Velda subsequent to her daughter Vorda's runner-up effort in the 2013 Prix Morny and victory in that year's G1 Cheveley Park S. Prognosis is the fourth Shadai-bred produce for Velda, and she is also represented by a 2-year-old colt by Orfevre (Jpn), her final live foal, as she sadly passed away in April 2022.

Sunday, Sapporo, Japan
SAPPORO KINEN-G2, ¥135,500,000, Sapporo, 8-20, 3yo/up, 2000mT, 2:01.50, gd.
1–PROGNOSIS (JPN), 128, h, 5, by Deep Impact (Jpn)
1st Dam: Velda (GB), by Observatory
2nd Dam: Viavigoni (GB), by Mark of Esteem (Ire)
3rd Dam: Val d'Erica (Ire), by Ashmore (Fr)
O-Shadai Race Horse; B-Shadai Farm; T-Mitsumasa Nakauchida; J-Yuga Kawada; ¥71,050,000. Lifetime Record: G1SP-HK, 10-6-2-1, $2,295,015. *1/2 to Vorda (Fr) (Orpen), Hwt. 2yo Filly-Fr, G1SW-Eng, GSW & G1SP-Fr,  Werk Nick Rating: C. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for the free Equineline.com pedigree.
2–Top Knife (Jpn), 121, c, 3, Declaration of War–Be Wind (Jpn), by Spinning World. (¥24,200,000 Ylg '21 HOKSUM). O-Koji Yasuhara; B-Kineusu Farm; ¥28,300,000.
3–So Valiant (Jpn), 128, h, 5, Orfevre (Jpn)–So Magic (Jpn), by Symboli Kris S. O-Shadai Race Horse; B-Shadai Farm; ¥18,150,000.
Margins: 4, 3, 3/4. Odds: 4.10, 48.60, 6.90.
Click for the JRA Chart.

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