liz crow | Horse Racing Free Tips

Who Will Be This Year’s Leading Freshman Sire? We’ve Asked the Experts

It's that time again. The first major 2-year-old sale, the March OBS sale, is in the books and the buyers, sellers and bloodstock agents have had their chance to evaluate this year's freshman sires. So who do they like? We asked the experts listed below to give us their pick for leading freshman sire and an under-the-radar stallion they expect will have a big 2024.

Liz Crow: “I really liked the Improbables at the OBS March breeze show. It's very sad that he passed away. I thought he had, overall, the most impressive breeze show. That doesn't always indicate who's going to be the leading freshman sire, but I have found in the past that it's a good model that tells you the horse is going in the right direction and that they have some 2-year-old speed. Overall, I was very impressed with his horses. Volatile is my sleeper pick. He had, overall, a good breeze show as well. And he bred a lot of mares, something around 180. I landed on quite a few of them that had nice works and he was speedy himself and, being by Violence, comes from a good line of 2 year olds. With the number of mares he had and with the solid breeze show he had I rank him high on the list.”

Phil Hager: “In terms of the quality that I've seen so far it's a toss-up between Authentic and McKinzie. A lot of the Authentics I have seen look really nice. Some look like they could be early, but a lot of them look like horses that can go on and go two turns. The McKinzies look like they might develop a little later in the year, but they seem to have a lot of quality. Both were well supported and will go to a lot of good trainers. My sleeper is Caracaro. That horse could run. I used to work at Crestwood, so I knew the horse's story. He had quite a few that worked really well at the March sale. I don't know if that was a surprise, but they were consistent.”

Mike McMahon: “McKinzie is my pick. I've owned three or four already. Not only were they in demand at the sales but they were all good looking horses. I haven't had a bad one yet. The one we bought to go racing with, if all is right, he will be pretty exceptional. I feel like I have a good group of McKinzies and have a good feel for them. His 2 year olds breezed just as well as they were supposed to. My sleeper is Vekoma. It's a tough choice because I like several stallions that stand for $10,000 or less and are real bargains. Vekoma has the speed to be a sire, the sire line and the pedigree. I've loved the ones we have been around.”

Jon Green: “I was most impressed with the Improbables. His passing is unfortunate. He had a couple of horses who were on our short list for the 2-year-old sale and last year we saw 10 to 12 of his yearlings that we liked at the yearling sales. I think he will be an outstanding freshman sire. The sleeper is Tom's d'Etat. We bought two of his yearlings and I got outbid on one at the March sale. He won't be a juvenile stallion that throws precocious 2 year olds. Just like him, as they get older. I think you'll see them hitting the winner's circle in graded stakes.They will get better with age.”

Connor Foley: Based on what I saw at the OBS sale, my pick for leading freshman sire would be Tiz the Law. They breezed well enough as a group and I thought they all had a lot of race-horse characteristics to them. Horses can breeze fast, but you still have to ask yourself the question, are they going to go on to be good race horses? They had that look to me. For my sleeper pick, I was impressed by the horses by Thousand Words.”

Zoe Cadman: “Volatile is my pick for leading freshman sire. Like last year's freshman sire Mitole, Volatile was also brilliantly fast and trained by one of the masters of the game in Steve Asmussen. How he ever paid $20 to win on debut is just beyond me. He was brilliantly fast and being out of an Unbridled's Song mare I see no reason why his babies won't go two turns . They made a great showing at the recently concluded OBS 2-year-old sales showing not only class, which is so important, but also some stretch and athleticism. Marette Farrell, who I work closely with at the sales, scooped one up out of the Lothenbach dispersal who we absolutely love. My under-the-radar pick was going to be Vekoma. But his 2-year-olds are no longer a secret. The were incredibly well received at both the yearling sales and at OBS March. The Farrell team bid on and secured several. So, I'm going with Complexity who stands for $12,500 at Airdrie stud, as my sleeper. He has it all. He was a Grade I winner at two and also the Kelso winner at four. His 2 year olds looked great skipping over the OBS surface and I am looking forward to seeing them hit the racetrack soon.”

Mark Casse: “I have to go with War of Will, who I trained. I have something like 20 of his offspring and they're training very well. They're going to be very versatile. He was a versatile horse who could run on dirt or grass. My sleeper is Win Win Win. The horses by him have been very impressive on the track.”

David Ingordo: “I have to go with Game Winner. He was 2-year-old champion and he got a good book of mares. They look the part. We got a bunch of them that we bought to race that act precocious, but also high class, not cheap. He's my No. 1 pick. My sleeper is Honor A.P. I don't think they'll win going 4 ½ furlongs by any means, but you have the A.P. Indy line that is not Tapit. He was precocious enough, but I think he'll be a source of Classic type blood. I can see him getting a horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic or, earlier on, him getting a 2-year old in races like the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Futurity.”

Terry Finley: We have a couple of Game Winners we like and I know people liked him in Ocala. The McKinzies look like they have a lot of quality to them. I was very impressed with him at the yearling sales and at Ocala, where they sold well. He's got a good shot to come up with a big one and a horse who is going to slant those stats. I like them both but I'll go with Game Winner as my top pick and McKinzie as my sleeper.

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“An Amazing Ride,” Hanley Prepares For Last Chapter with Goodnight Olive

Jay Hanley considers himself lucky to have had more than his fair share of highs in horse racing, but he has also gone through plenty of mishaps, frustrations and heartbreaks.

A co-owner of champion Lady Eli (Divine Park), he was there for the ups and downs of the extraordinary mare's career as she fought a seemingly insurmountable battle with laminitis and returned to the top of the sport.

Then there is Goodnight Olive (Ghostzapper – Salty Strike, Smart Strike), who overcame two setbacks early in her career and went on to take her ownership group on an unforgettable journey as she earned championship honors for top female sprinter last year and now looks to defend her title for 2023.

“Her career has meant the world to me,” Hanley reflected. “To get to watch her up there on stage doing her thing has been absolutely magical for my family, my partners and me. I've been very lucky and blessed in my ownership career, but there is no horse that means more to me than Goodnight Olive. She is a testament to generations of breeding, to Liz Crow who selected her, and to Chad Brown and his team that cared for her because there was nothing easy about her career.”

A graduate of the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Fall Yearling Sale, Goodnight Olive is a daughter of Ghostzapper out of MGSW Salty Strike (Smart Strike). She was an $170,000 purchase by Liz Crow for the ownership group of Team Hanley and Steve Laymon's First Row Partners.

“This filly's pedigree really stood out in the book,” Crow recalled of her purchase. “It's hard to find a Ghostzapper filly that is out of such an accomplished mare. When I saw her, she was very athletic. She was bred by Stonestreet–one of the best breeders in the country. I think she was in the October Sale because they wanted to give her a little more time to develop. She's a really big, strong filly now but when we bought her, she was a little on the small side and just hadn't quite developed into the beast she is today. Chad is generally right on about a horse's talent level and he loved her from day one. She just took some time to get going.”

Enthusiastic owners celebrate Goodnight Olive's 2022 GI Ballerina H. | Sarah Andrew

Definitively breaking her maiden by eight and a half lengths at Keeneland in her second start, Goodnight Olive won her next two races as a sophomore with an ease that was reminiscent of her sire's brilliant career.

“Right away when she came into the barn she reminded me of Ghostzapper,” Brown explained. “I was lucky enough to be around that horse quite a bit when I worked for Bobby Frankel and I've had good luck with Ghostzapper offspring. Goodnight Olive has a ton of heart like her father and she has never had a bad day of training.”

Toward the end of Goodnight Olive's 3-year-old season, ankle chip issues that had prevented her from racing as a juvenile resurfaced and she was forced to the sideline. Hanley recalls his emotions at that time.

“When I first found out she had to take another break, I was a little sad,” he admitted. “These generational talents don't come around that often. I was sad for the sport because while we knew what we had, the sport didn't yet.”

But Hanley and his partners were rewarded for their patience when Goodnight Olive returned as a 4-year-old last year. Her undefeated season culminated with an eye-catching graded stakes debut in the GI Ballerina H. followed by a 2½-length victory in the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint, besting a field that included champion Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) and three other Grade I winners.

“That was my favorite win by far,” said Hanley. “It's rare in a seven furlong race at the Breeders' Cup level when you know you have the race won at the quarter pole. I was down by the finish line and we were cheering her on from the moment she put her nose in front right around the turn. That was 15 seconds of pure elation.”

Sarah Andrew

The 2022 Champion Female Sprinter, Goodnight Olive returned at five this year to claim her third straight Grade I score in the Madison S. at Keeneland. She later added the GII Bed o'Roses S. to her resume and was most recently second to Echo Zulu in the GI Ballerina, where she earned a career high 108 Beyer Speed Figure.

Goodnight Olive has since been training at Belmont Park as she prepares to defend her title at the Breeders' Cup in what is most likely her final career start.

“She's doing great,” Brown reported. “She had a tough defeat last time to a really, really good filly. She's going to have a nice break between starts and I'm hoping she goes out a winner. She's trained with such consistency. Every day she comes out and she's the same horse. She's very dependable and has taken her track with her wherever she has raced. She's really one of the best fillies I've ever trained.”

“Anybody can lose on any given day, but I'm going into this last dance with a good deal of confidence,” added Hanley. “I'm so happy we can see her on the world stage again and I hope she can pull it off. If she does, it would be an amazing way to wrap up her career.”

Win, lose or draw, Goodnight Olive will head to Kentucky immediately after her Breeders' Cup performance to sell at Fasig-Tipton's November Sale. The decision to sell Goodnight Olive was one that Hanley and his partners arrived at together, but parting with their star mare will not be easy.

“The sadness is very real and it runs very deep, but the reality is that I'm not one of the guys in the sport who can take home a talent like this,” Hanley explained. “I think this is the final chapter in book one of her life story. Now she gets to go write book two. Chapter one of that book will start at the Night of the Stars. It's with sadness that I feel like she's leaving my immediate world, but also with great anticipation and joy that I know what she's going to do.”

Hanley has been at the racetrack for nearly all of Goodnight Olive's performances, but it's the mornings spent at the barn that he will remember more than any winner's circle.

Goodnight Olive gets a third straight Grade I score in the Madison S. | Coady

“She is a love of a mare,” he said. “You can walk up and she just nuzzles into you. You look into her deep brown eyes and you know that she knows what you're feeling. There were times I was sad, angry or anxious and she would just absorb all of it. This is a very intelligent horse. I would say her mind is light-years ahead of any other horse that I've ever had.”

Hanley told the story of how his father-in-law, who is a Vietnam combat veteran, has also fallen in love with the mare.

“He doesn't show emotion toward a lot of humans but when he met her, within 10 minutes his arms were around her and she was leaning into him,” he shared. “He's been to a lot of races with me and he doesn't ask about any other horse other than Goodnight Olive. She has brought our family together and provided an amazing journey for my family and partners. To me, the sadness of selling her comes from that.”

Goodnight Olive will sell as Hip 237 on Nov. 7 with EliTE Sales. Fasig-Tipton's Boyd Browning said he is looking forward to showcasing a champion Fasig-Tipton graduate.

“We take a great deal of pride in seeing our sales graduates run well and she has been special,” he said. “Goodnight Olive really epitomizes everything you're looking for in a racehorse. She's got brilliance, pedigree and conformation. She certainly has speed– which is an attribute that I think you particularly look for in mares, that they have the opportunity to pass that on to their offspring. Really the sky is the limit and the opportunities are endless in terms of who you can breed her to and what you might be able to produce.”

“I think Ghostzapper is becoming such a prolific broodmare sire,” added Crow. “He's the broodmare sire of Justify and 35 other stakes winners already. She's an exceptional physical and her mom was a heck of a runner. I think she's really a collector's item.”

After the Breeders' Cup, Hanley will also be making the trip to Kentucky for the sale. He is hopeful that his farewell to Goodnight Olive there is only temporary.

“It's amazing to think that her racing career is over, but she has so many great years ahead,” he said. “I hope that wherever she goes, my kids and I can go visit her and give her love and treats. I know that she will be an amazing mom and it's a safe bet that we'll be keeping a keen eye out for her babies.”

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‘It’s a Game I Adore’: Glengarry Keeps Kennedy at Home in Iowa

Aaron Kennedy has enjoyed racing success on the national stage as a partner on the likes of Storm the Court and Sugar Shock, but the CEO of the Des Moines-based advertising firm Flynn Wright might have a star in his own backyard after the effortless debut victory of Glengarry (Maximus Mischief) at Prairie Meadows Monday night.

“He's a big horse and he definitely knows it,” Kennedy said of the imposing gray colt.

Kennedy, who owns Glengarry in partnership with Toby Joseph and trainer Doug Anderson, purchased the colt for $150,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May sale–a price he admits was at the very top of his budget.

“I am sure you know the name Liz Crow,” Kennedy said. “Liz has been my agent for the last few years and every year in the spring, we talk about buying a couple of 2-year-olds. I generally give her a budget with a few partners that I have here and then she comes back with a list. He was estimated above our price range. I think Liz valued him at $200,000 or more. And our price range was $125,000, maybe $150,000 on the high end. So we actually didn't bid on Glengarry and the hammer dropped at $200,000 and he was an RNA. Liz approached the owners–because he is an Iowa-bred and I'm in Iowa–and said, 'I think these guys in Iowa might be interested. I think this is probably their ceiling–which was the $150,000.' Thankfully they said, 'Yeah, we will take that deal.'”

Kennedy said the partners weren't specifically shopping for Iowa-breds when they found Glengarry in May.

“I've owned a few and tried to breed a few in Iowa, but I wasn't shopping specifically for an Iowa-bred,” he said. “But I'm glad to have him. It's fun to have him where he's at. We had a lot of people there last night to watch him.”

Sent off at 1-5, Glengarry was certainly no surprise to the betting public.

“The first time when I was at the barn when [jockey Ken] Tohill got off after breezing him, he said, 'I think this horse is pretty special,' so we had high expectations last night,” Kennedy said. “We expected him to run the way he did. It was a great relief to see him produce the kind of performance he did. I don't think he was even asked.”

With his stylish debut, Glengarry has likely earned a trip to stakes company for his second outing.

“Pretty sure if he comes back as he looked this morning, our next event will be Iowa Classic night, the 2-year-old stakes for Iowa-breds,” Kennedy said.

The $100,000 Iowa Cradle S. is one of seven stakes on the Sept. 30 Iowa Classic card at Prairie Meadows.

Kennedy, meanwhile, is living out a childhood dream with his racing stable.

“I grew up the street from Ak-sar-ben,” Kennedy explained. “So I loved the game from an early age. The very first horse that I ever partnered on was with my trainer, Doug Anderson. He was an Iowa-bred named Callmemrgeorge (Miracle Heights) and he won his first race by a dozen lengths [in 2007]. He was a cheaper horse, but he always tried. I think he ended up winning six races.”

Just a few years into racehorse ownership and again in partnership with Anderson, Kennedy found graded-stakes success with Sugar Shock (Candy Ride {Arg}), who won the 2014 GIII Fantasy S. and took the partners to the GI Kentucky Oaks.

“That was a fun ride,” Kennedy said of his experiences with the filly. “More recently, I've owned horses with Exline-Border Racing out in California and [2019 champion 2-year-old] Storm the Court was my first Exline-Border horse. And then Doug and I owned Stilleto Boy a few years ago. We sold him after winning the Iowa Derby and he's gone on to do great things.”

Kennedy has just one broodmare at the moment, the 6-year-old Catechism (Karakontie {Ire}), who is currently in foal to Goldencents. But that number could increase in the near future.

“That's my foray back into breeding,” Kennedy said of Catechism. “I am a business guy, I don't have land or anything, but Doug and I talk about a future where we will probably have some broodmares. I think Doug may end up in Kentucky before too long. I can't imagine a scenario that I would have eight or 10 mares, but maybe three or four good ones. I think it would be a lot of fun.”

Of his current racing stable, Kennedy said, “I have probably 10-12 in California with Exline-Border and Peter Eurton trains there. I think there are seven or eight of us in that partnership. And then I have six here in the Midwest between Kentucky and Iowa with Doug Anderson and Matt Shirer.”

From his childhood racetrack at Ak-sar-ben to winner's circles around the country, Kennedy is enjoying the ride.

“It's a game I adore,” he said. “It's the best sport in the world.”

6th-Prairie Meadows, $40,326, Msw, 8-28, 2yo, 6f, 1:12.65, ft, 5 3/4 lengths.
GLENGARRY (c, 2, Maximus Mischief–L. A. Way, by Tizway), the 1-5 favorite, broke sharply and was quickly on the lead. The gray colt was pressed through an opening quarter in :22.63, took command on the turn and strode home under a motionless Ken Tohill to win by 5 3/4 lengths. He is the 16th winner for his freshman sire (by Into Mischief). Glengarry was purchased by Raul Reyes's Kings Equine for $55,000 as a FTKJUL yearling and sold for $150,000 following a :10 1/5 work at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic May sale. L.A. Way has a yearling filly by Good Samaritan and she produced a filly by Maximus Mischief this year before being bred back to Tonalist. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.
Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $27,126.
O-Aaron Kennedy, Toby Joseph & Doug Anderson; B-Highpoint Bloodstock (IA); T-Doug L. Anderson.

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The X-Ray Files: Liz Crow

The TDN sat down with bloodstock agent Liz Crow for this fourth offering in a series presented in cooperation with the Consignors and Breeders Association (CBA). Through conversations with buyers and sellers, the series looks to contribute to the discussion on radiograph findings and their impact on racetrack success.

Bloodstock agent Liz Crow, who has an ever-expanding list of accomplished sales purchases, as well as a burgeoning book of pinhook successes with partner Paul Sharp, admits there are subtle distinctions between buying to race versus buying for resale.

“There are several different findings for a horse that you can live with to race, but you can't buy to pinhook,” Crow said. “Some of those things, for example, are the moderate to severe sesamoiditis and juvenile tendonitis. Those horses will be perfectly fine and perfectly normal if you give them time, but you can't put them right into a 2-year-old sales cycle because you can't give them that time. They have to get ready and start breezing. Moderate to severe sesamoiditis requires 60 to 90 days before you break them. Obviously, you just don't have 60 to 90 days [for a pinhook prospect]. You've got to start breaking them when they get to your farm and they need to be breezing by January. And that just doesn't give you enough time. So it's all about timing.”

Whether it's searching for a racing prospect or a potential pinhook, Crow said the biggest part of her job may be determining what is consequential and what isn't on the vet report.

“I think your relationship with your vet is very important,” she said. “Not trusting just the vet report or what the vet reports say, but actually forming a relationship with the vet and having that line of communication where you can have a discussion. You as the agent, and with your client, you have to take that information and make that decision based on what you're given.”

Crow has been shopping the sales for over a decade and has learned to value just that type of relationship she has developed with Dr. Jeff Berk.

“I've been doing this for quite a while now and I've used the same vet my entire career,” Crow said. “I have listened to Dr. Berk read vet reports to me and talk to me about this for 12+ years at this point. We vet 400-500 horses in September alone. Oftentimes, Jeff will say to me in September–we are obviously all moving so fast–he will say, 'Call me on this one, let's talk about it.' And that means this is not a black-and-white thing. I honestly think it's a toss-up for what's more important for my job, whether it's picking out and finding a horse that has talent or is it really deciphering these vet reports.”

She continued, “Vet reports to me are very subjective. They are not black and white. If you get three different vets that give you three different opinions–and that happens more often than not–they are giving you their opinion. They cannot tell you if this horse can or cannot make the races. They are using their experience to tell you what they think based on what they found in the X-rays. But these are not facts. So the most important thing for me, as an agent, is to decipher what that means and if it fits for what my client is trying to do with that horse.”

Crow has built a career on finding horses on a budget who go on to do great things on the racetrack. She purchased future champion Monomoy Girl for $100,000 at the 2016 Keeneland September sale and was able to acquire subsequent Grade I winner Jack Christopher for $135,000 at the 2020 Fasig-Tipton October sale.

“Sometimes the best thing you can do for your client is find that horse that doesn't vet perfectly, but may be very athletic,” Crow said. “I've had a lot of success doing that and I think it's a great way to approach it, as long as your client is clear and understands the risk.”

After purchasing Monomoy Girl in 2016, the filly went on to win the 2018 GI Kentucky Oaks and twice won the GI Breeders' Cup Distaff. The two-time Eclipse champion provided Crow a case-in-point.

“Monomoy Girl had moderate sesamoiditis behind in both hind ankles and she had an OCD removed behind as well,” Crow said. “Dr. Berk and I had a discussion about it and I was completely comfortable with bidding on her based on what he had told me. And I think it did bother a few people, from my understanding. But that's the thing, when you get three or four different vets, they all have different opinions. I think that's part of the problem, all of the opinions.”

Over the years, Crow has developed an understanding of what are significant issues and what issues she can deal with.

“If your vet says the horse has this, this, this and this, I sort of go through it and immediately think, a P1 plantar fragment behind, a lucency in the upper joint, mild sharpening in the upper joint of the right knee, those things are all fine. I know those three findings. Like a sharpening in the knee, any finding in the upper joint of the knee, mild to moderate sesamoiditis that scans well, a fragment in the back of the ankle, these things don't mean anything really. They are just comments, a differentiation of normal. I think that there are a lot of findings that are just that, a differentiation of normal. And deciphering what is acceptable and what isn't is not as easy as just looking at the vet sheet. Monomoy Girl is a great example of a horse that, if you read her vet sheet without any sort of context or discussion, you could think she could have problem, but she didn't and none of those things bothered her throughout her entire race career.”

Advancements in veterinary scans provide potential buyers with a treasure trove of information to work through. That's not a bad thing, according to Crow.

“You can never go wrong with more information,” she said. “I am not going to say it's a bad thing that we have better information. I am just going to say that every horse has something and it's very rare that you vet a horse that is perfectly clean. You have to learn what you can live with. Most good horses have something. It would be great to continue to inform these buyers that horses don't have to be NSA [no significant abnormalities] to be able to be purchased.”

Click to read previous The X-Ray Files: with Tom McCrocklin, David Ingordo or Ciaran Dunne.

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