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This Side Up: Veterans’ Day at Oaklawn

When it comes to ageing, as the wiseguys remind us, it's when you're over the hill that you begin to pick up speed. And it's true: the magnolia trees where I live are coming into blossom, and I swear that each passing year compresses both the duration of those brief candles and, above all, the intervals in between. The inference is a dismal one: time flies when you've had your fun.

So on a weekend when we temporarily suspend our search for the adolescent Thoroughbred maturing sufficiently to beat his peers on the first Saturday in May, let's celebrate the fulfilments that remain available later in life–whether on two legs or four.

The GIII Essex H. is the kind of race that warms the cockles of my heart. Last year it retrieved graded status, and deservedly so after increasing its purse fivefold between 2016 and 2021–a telling snapshot of the thriving Oaklawn program. And this time round it throws together a couple of evergreen veterans who show that whether age turns us into vinegar or vintage wine is largely up to us.

Listen to this edition of This Side Up.

In the case of D. Wayne Lukas, it actually stands to reason that he should still maintain the standards of his heyday even with a much smaller barn. True, he does seem as blessed in indefatigability as in the genius he always brought to his vocation, and harnessing one to the other has simply given a fresh dimension to his unique status in our community. A wider application, however, surely applies to the principle that any decline in the physical powers even of lesser mortals is compensated, and amply so, by experience.

It's not as though anyone sends an expensive Thoroughbred to a given trainer because he might otherwise have made a cage-fighter or lumberjack. I've never understood why “ageing” trainers (an alarmingly elastic concept) should have become unfashionable as they certainly are in my homeland. Some of the biggest yards in Newmarket these days seem to be supervised as a perk accompanying appointment as head boy at various prep schools. As I have frequently remarked, if I owned the Derby favourite, and he had a foot in a bucket of ice the evening before the race, I would rather my trainer was dealing with the problem for an umpteenth time, and not the first.

It would be nice to think that a few people pondered this after the longest-serving trainer in Newmarket won the Arc last autumn, and I was delighted to learn that Sir Mark Prescott will be training for the new monarch this year. On the other side of the water, meanwhile, Lukas himself offered a similar prompt to reflection with Secret Oath (Arrogate) in the GI Kentucky Oaks last year. Though he was now closer to 90 than 80, perhaps one or two people recognized that the guy might finally be getting the hang of the game.

Admittedly it was hard, after Rich Strike (Keen Ice) emerged from nowhere (both figuratively and literally) the next day, to resist a wistful sense that Secret Oath in that form might well have cut down the boys in the Derby after all. While her form then tapered off, last weekend she looked as rejuvenated as her trainer when resurfacing at the track where she first made her name.

That was a gratifying sight, after her breeders had resisted all blandishments to keep her in the Briland family. And Last Samurai, who represents Lukas in the Essex, similarly looked better than ever when taking his earnings past $1.6 million in the GIII Razorback H. Even in his fourth campaign, however, he remains a relative greenhorn compared to the horse who closed for fourth that day.

Rated R Superstar (Kodiak Kowboy) won this race last year, as he had back in 2019 when a callow 6-year-old, and now bids to retain the trophy on his 68th career start. Here's a horse, then, to renew the perennial question: who do we blame for the fact that the modern Thoroughbred is treated like porcelain? Is it the trainers themselves? Or do they only treat horses this way because of the raw materials they're nowadays given by breeders?

One trainer who sets himself apart in that respect is Kenny McPeek, who actually trained Rated R Superstar through his first 30 starts, including when third in the GI Breeders' Futurity. And on Saturday McPeek takes on his old buddy with another who exactly matched that effort as a juvenile, in Classic Causeway.

This time last year, this horse had just won the GII Tampa Bay Derby and was sketching out an apt memorial as one of just three colts in the final crop of Giant's Causeway. True to that legacy of toughness and versatility, in the summer Classic Causeway reinvented himself in startling fashion, winning a Grade I on turf just two weeks after finishing third in the GIII Ohio Derby. Few American trainers today would dare attempt anything like that, so who can presume to anticipate what he might yet achieve back on dirt?

This week McPeek has already dusted off another of last year's sophomores to make a really heartening return. It certainly seems a long time since Smile Happy (Runhappy) beat Classic Causeway (then in another barn) in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., not having been seen since his midfield finish in the Derby. But his rehearsals last spring had confirmed him among the best of the crop, and it's very wholesome to be reminded that there is life after the Triple Crown trail. Three years ago, after all, Last Samurai himself trailed in a distant fifth of six in the GI Arkansas Derby; while his rivals Saturday also include Silver Prospector (Declaration Of War), who had bombed out in the previous running of that race.

So let's hope that Litigate (Blame) can likewise return to build a career commensurate with his talent and potential after the hugely disappointing news that he's out of the Derby. All of us have some kind of stake in this horse doing enough to earn a place at stud, given that he has Numbered Account (Buckpasser) facing Thong (Nantallah) on either side of his pedigree. As that indicates, he has been in the best of hands throughout and hopefully his time will still come.

Even without him, the GII Louisiana Derby next week looks deep enough for horses to show that they could have a legitimate shot at Churchill but without banking enough points to prise open a gate. If that happens, however, nobody should despair. You might yet end up with a millionaire contesting the Essex H. in 2025. There are worse fates. Because what they say of people is probably just as true of many a horse: youth is wasted on the young.

The post This Side Up: Veterans’ Day at Oaklawn appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Litigate For Pletcher Off The Derby Trail

Litigate (Blame), winner of last month's GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa Bay Downs, is off the GI Kentucky Derby trail, according to Daily Racing Form.

Owned by Centennial Farms, he most recently worked four furlongs in :50.52 at Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher's Palm Beach Downs base Feb. 24.

The $370,000 KEESEP graduate was being aimed at the GII Louisiana Derby.

The post Litigate For Pletcher Off The Derby Trail appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin

A trio of graded stakes preps in Florida, California and New York yielded a reshuffled deck this past weekend as we edge within the two-month mark for the May 6 GI Kentucky Derby.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable & St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: Won GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Park Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 90.

'TDN Rising Star' and juvenile champ Forte muscles into the top spot for the first time based on his overall, six-race body of work as much as the powerhouse performance he delivered when romping in his first sophomore start, the GII Fountain of Youth S.

If you liked his athletic, win-from-any-spot tactics and head-of-the-stretch blast-offs at age two, you had to love the way this son of Violence prowled around the short-stretch 1 1/16-mile configuration on Saturday, giving the impression he had the field at his mercy the entire trip while never being over-ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr.

From a numbers perspective, Forte's 98 Beyer Speed Figure does represent a two-point regression from the 100 he earned when winning the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile four months ago. But the visual image of this colt soaring home while geared down and never fully extended should trump any by-the-numbers concerns about whether he's moved forward since November.

Trainer Todd Pletcher had stated before the start of 2023 that Forte would likely take a two-prep path to Louisville, with the second race being either the GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream or the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland. Forte is now undefeated over both of those surfaces, lending an additional edge, although trainer Todd Pletcher told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that he is leaning toward the Florida Derby as his preference.

2) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544,275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is one of three horses ranked within the Top 12 to have only two starts by the first week in March. But unlike the other two colts ranked deeper down the list, his whopping auction price ($2.3 million OBSAPR sales topper after initially selling for $250,000 at KEESEP), two scintillating wins and outsized public expectations will put quite a bit more pressure on him to win the Derby off a schedule that trainer Tim Yakteen said will only include one more prep.

The race spacing will be additionally unconventional, because if Arabian Knight starts next in either the GI Santa Anita Derby or the GI Arkansas Derby as expected, that will leave him with a base of just three lifetime races spread relatively far apart (November, January, April) before attempting 10 furlongs on the first Saturday in May.

The question will come down to whether his raw talent can overcome what looks like a very narrow foundation. But right now, if you lined up the dozen horses on this list in the gate, you wouldn't get much argument against Arabian Knight being the “speed of the speed.” And considering that speed-centric horses who raced either on the front end or just off it have won eight of the last nine Derbies, that trend tilts the tactical advantage in this colt's favor.

After unseasonably wet weather delayed Arabian Knight's training for more than 2 1/2 weeks, he was back on the Santa Anita work tab Saturday for the first time since Feb. 13, with a five-eighths move clocked in :59.20 (3/71).

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GP Allowance/Optional Claiming, Feb, 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice looms as the legit favorite when entries get drawn on Wednesday for Saturday's GIII Tampa Bay Derby.

This $1.3 million KEESEP son of Tapit brings an upward- trending 73-87-92 Beyer progression into his first two-turn try after eye-catching wins in two of three one-turn-miles at Aqueduct and Gulfstream. But he'll have to come off Lasix (used once, in his most recent Feb 4. Start) as he ventures into stakes company for the first time.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the Tampa Derby five times, and it's also of note that despite having two horses ranked on this list who have already won over the Tampa surface this meet (Nos. 10 and 11), he is instead aiming them both for the GII Louisiana Derby in deference to sending Tapit Trice to Tampa.

Luis Saez, who has ridden Tapit Trice only once–in the colt's most recent start–will be aboard. To keep the mount, Saez had to make the difficult decision to vacate the same-day call this coming Saturday aboard the returning GI Kentucky Oaks winner Secret Oath (Arrogate) in Oaklawn's GII Azeri S., a filly he has ridden in her last six races.

4) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Pierre Amestoy Jr, Leslie Amestoy & Roger K Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last start: Won GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 60

Practical Move ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) executed the biggest leapfrog of the season by emphatically winning Saturday's GII San Felipe S., going from unranked to No. 4 on this list.

Have to admit I wasn't initially wowed by his 10-1 win in the Dec. 17 GII Los Alamitos Futurity (88 Beyer) because that race gave off an aberrational vibe–the 2-5 favorite abruptly dropped back and finished last after an ideal stalking trip, and this son of Practical Joke scooted up the inside to pass a drifting, tiring pacemaker. But three months later, we saw a sturdier, more confident colt who looked dialed in the entire trip.

After minor brushing and bumping leaving the gate, jockey Ramon Vazquez carved out a sweet stalking spot, and Practical Move was unbothered by a rank horse to his outside on the first turn before responding to a rating hold, biding his time behind legit splits. He edged up incrementally to jointly attain second, but on the far bend, Practical Move was briefly hemmed in with nowhere to go at the fence and he lost momentum for several strides, regressing to fourth.

Vazquez remained patient and committed to his spot, and when the tired pacemaker drifted out to the four path at the quarter pole, Practical Move quickened on cue to win by 2 1/2 lengths with another inside stretch run (100 Beyer). This one, though, looked stronger and better composed than his previous winning move.

There have been 15 Derby qualifying stakes at 1 1/16 miles on dirt so far in 2022-23. Practical Move now owns the two fastest clockings–1:41.65 in the Los Al Futurity and 1:42.10 in the San Felipe.

5) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: Second in the GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20

Geaux Rocket Ride broke running and hounded the pacemaker through brisk fractions nearly every step of the trip in the San Felipe S. on Saturday. Despite having to shift inward and off the heels of tiring leaders at the head of the homestretch, this $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) still finished resolutely at the rail to end up 2 1/2 lengths behind winner Practical Move and 1 1/4 lengths ahead of the third-place horse.

He was credited with a 96 Beyer for his stakes and two-turn debut, four points higher than his blitzing MSW win over six furlongs back on Jan. 29.

Trainer Richard Mandella told Daily Racing Form on Sunday that the Santa Anita Derby is likely next. “On the path we're talking [about], everything would have to be perfect, but he's a pretty good horse,” the understated Hall-of-Fame conditioner said.

6) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 6-2-2-0, $326,538. Last Start: Second GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40

This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) broke fluidly from post seven in the Fountain of Youth S., conceded the lead, then was a close-up fourth while three wide into the clubhouse turn. He methodically kept advancing his position while tucked between rivals on the backstretch, then was second out from the rail when the field fanned out four across the track at the top of the stretch.

Rocket Can got a touch tired but never stopped grinding away, and although no one in that stakes was in the same league as the winner, Forte, this colt landed second while upping his GIII Holy Bull S. winning Beyer by nine points, from 82 to 91.

“It was a good trip. I ended up where I wanted to be,” said jockey Junior Alvarado. “The only thing was on the backside we were putting a little bit of pressure. From [:24.05] the first part we had to speed it up to [:23.60] the second quarter. Normally we do that the other way around, but he was there.

“Every time I ride him, he's a different horse in the post parade, a different dimension. We're trying to figure it out. I just think he hasn't matured yet. He comes here and he's very playful. I don't think he's put it all together. I take that as a good thing. Hopefully when he puts it together we can gain a few more lengths,” Alvarado said.

7) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One still has to work on his lead-changing skills and he drops frighteningly far back off the pace. He's also never won on dirt. But you can see flashes that this still-learning chestnut “gets it” based on his last two races, which were runner-up efforts behind the Nos. 1 and 9 horses on this list in January and February stakes on the Oaklawn prep path.

With seven starts, experience over varied types of wet and dry footing, and a fairly obvious “longer-the-better” development arc, trainer Steve Asmussen said after the GII Rebel S. that Red Route One might try the 1 3/16-mile GII Louisiana Derby in his next race.

A Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred by Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Untapable, he's already racked up enough points to be seventh on the qualifying list. So long as he keeps coming close in major stakes, Red Route One wouldn't even have to win a sophomore prep to emerge as a plausible long shot in Louisville.

Like any deep closer, he'd be at the mercy of the pace and the luck of the trip. But it's not too hard to envision this colt getting completely ignored in the Derby betting, building momentum from far back, and storming down the Churchill Downs stretch with abandon at something like 40-1.

8) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Sagamore Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-3-0-0, $442,815. Last Start: Won Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Instant Coffee has put together a commendable four-race progression that includes a win sprinting seven furlongs at Saratoga first time out at 14-1 odds, plus two scores over 1 1/16 miles in which he's taken the overland route from far back to win as the favorite in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. and the GIII Lecomte S.

Nestled in between his maiden victory and those stakes tallies is a fourth-place try in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. that shouldn't be overlooked, because that Keeneland stakes was the deepest, most productive 2-year-old race from last autumn (five next-out winners, including four in stakes).

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) will next target the Louisiana Derby, and you'd think the long Fair Grounds stretch would benefit his off-the-tailgate style.

But just two preps at age three? From 2017 through 2022, horses with only two sophomore starts prior to the Kentucky Derby are a collective 0-for-34. However, that two-at-three template worked much better over the previous decade, producing eight Derby winners between 2007 and 2016.

9) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

What a great story line it'll be if an unheralded colt with a royal pedigree makes it into the gate for the Derby. Confidence Game, the 18-1 upsetter of the Rebel S., cost just $25,000 as a late-sale KEESEP bargain despite his dam, Eblouissante (Bernardini), being 'TDN Rising Star' half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}).

Beyond the underdog appeal, let's not forget that blue-collar steals been very real Derby threats in recent years. Three of the last four horses to cross the finish wire first in the Derby were sold (or offered for sale) comparatively cheap: the DQ'd Maximum Security in 2019 (ran for a $16,000 maiden-claiming tag); the DQ'd-but-under-appeal Medina Spirit in 2021 (sold for $1,000 and then $35,000 at auction), and Rich Strike in 2022 (claimed for $30,000 at age two).

This efficient-striding son of Candy Ride (Arg) capitalized off an ideal speed setup for his 94-Beyer Oaklawn victory, and you can expect handicappers will hold that against him next time out. They will argue that Confidence Game had everything his own way, pace-wise, then benefitted from taking a wide path to victory while the inside contenders were mired in a muddy traffic jam.

Those skeptics just might be right. But this is what overachievers do–they exceed expectations when odds are stacked against them. I wouldn't be surprised if Confidence Game has another big race in him yet.

10) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm LLC; B-Parks Investment Group LLC (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG; $800,000 2yo '22 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $57,300. Last start: Won allowance/optional claimer at Tampa Feb. 12. KY Derby points: 0

Kingsbarns ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) energetically tracked a hot pace in his one-turn-mile debut at Gulfstream Jan. 14 as the 3-1 favorite. This son of Uncle Mo was “on hold” but not bothered by being covered up at the rail in tight quarters on the turn, then got boxed and blocked even worse at the top of the stretch before punching through with a professional late run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Next time out on Feb. 12, trainer Todd Pletcher spotted him in a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, and Kingsbarns conceded a long lead to an intemperate 37-1 shot who quickly backpedaled through the pack. Kingsbarns dispatched him with ease and fended off all comers to draw away by 7 3/4 easy lengths (85 Beyer).

This colt doesn't have a flashy way of going and his speed numbers aren't eye-popping. But he has a level-headed, adaptable approach and a measure of confidence that should aid his chances as the competition toughens and the distances increase. The Louisiana Derby is next.

11) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate's 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa looks slow based on his 77 Beyer and :7.05 final sixteenth, but those numbers don't reflect that the race was run under sudden downpour conditions even though the track remained rated “fast” for the Equibase chart.

This $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame broke well but Luis Saez opted not to engage the leaders through a :46.94 half-mile. Litigate had good far-turn punch, but did require aggressive handling through the lane to sustain his bid ahead of two longshot closers.

Next up is the Louisiana Derby.

12) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings Inc & Philip J Steinberg (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: Second in the GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby points: 20

Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate in the one-turn-mile GIII Gotham S., had to be ridden cautiously to steer clear of a loose horse, dropped far behind through a quick :45.53 half-mile, then unwound with a prolonged far-turn bid.

But this $150,000 KEESEP gray still had only one horse beaten at the top of the stretch in a field of 14. Fanned way out wide in the 11 path, he dug in under Trevor McCarthy, uncorking a furious late rally that earned second under the wire behind a 7 1/2-length, 23-1 upsetter Raise Cain (Violence).

Trainer Brad Cox said he “never expected him to be that far back” and that “hopefully he gets a little better trip and a little better position” when he goes next in the GII Wood Memorial Apr. 8.

The added furlong should suit this colt, with stout A.P. Indy and Seattle Slew influences anchoring the bottom of his pedigree. His dam, Got Lucky, was a six-time victress with all of her wins at a mile or longer, the most prominent being a nine-furlong score in the 2015 GI Juddmonte Spinster S. at Keeneland.

Owner Al Gold's stable, Gold Square Racing, now has two contenders with the Top 12, as New York-stabled Slip Mahoney joins the New Orleans-based Instant Coffee.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12: Forte Crowns Himself The New Kingpin appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs

The first Saturday in May is the ultimate goal on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. But the first Saturday in March is often a make-or-break day on the national calendar, with key stakes in Florida, California and New York providing an uptick in intensity.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $544.275 Last start: 1st GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park, Jan. 28. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight is the kingpin colt among the sophomores who switched out of trainer Bob Baffert's barn over the past week and into the care of Baffert's former assistant from two decades ago, Tim Yakteen. The transition was necessitated by a Churchill Downs ban on Baffert trainees that prohibits them from accruing qualifying points or racing in the Derby while under Baffert's control.

Top-ranked on this list since the outset of the season, this intimidatingly speedy, sales-topping son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP, $2.3 million OBSAPR) is being aimed for either the GI Arkansas Derby Apr. 1 or the GI Santa Anita Derby one week later.

Staying home at Santa Anita means being able to race out of his own stall there. But shipping hasn't adversely affected either of his on-the-road wins, and Arabian Knight showed he can absolutely devour a wet Oaklawn racetrack if that condition arises again.

That last victory was a thorough shellacking of an overmatched field in the GIII Southwest S. in Hot Springs Jan. 28, in which Arabian Knight earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure while dominating the tempo and not being throttled for maximum output.

Arabian Knight has only had one published workout since that win, a three-furlong move at Santa Anita back on Feb. 13, though there have been no recorded breezes of any variety since Feb. 23 owing to a rare winter storm.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

Divisional champ Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) will have a figurative target on his back in Saturday's GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream. It's his 2023 debut off a four-month layoff, and he drew post four as the 7-5 morning line favorite.

Somewhat surprisingly, this 'TDN Rising Star' by Violence didn't go off favored in any of the three Grade I victories that closed out his juvenile campaign, although he was the chalk in both his May 27 debut win at Belmont (7 3/4 lengths) and in start number two, a fourth-place try in the GII Sanford S. at Saratoga.

Yet this colt's trio of Grade I wins in the Hopeful S., Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S., and Breeders' Cup Juvenile each revealed new tactical dimensions, and Forte's knack of being able to essentially pick his own positioning before reliably firing a big shot off the far turn is a skill that a number of his competitors still haven't mastered. Watching the leggy, athletic Forte target and reel in horses without flinching from stretch fights whets the appetite for what he might be able to deliver on a two-prep path to Louisville.

But longer-term statistical trends could be stumbling blocks: as for this Saturday, be aware that favorites have lost 12 of the last 16 editions of the Fountain of Youth. Widening the lens to take in 38 years of Breeders' Cup history, only two colts (Nyquist and Street Sense) have parlayed wins in the Juvenile into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is headed for the Mar. 11 GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby for start number four.

His Nov. 6 debut at Aqueduct was a better-than-it-looks learning experience based on his fast-closing third. This colt's Dec. 17 MSW win, also at Aqueduct, rated as an eye-opener because of his unfazed attitude after brushing, bumping and running down a rival in a deep-stretch mud fight. But it was the over-the-top nature of Tapit Trice's gaudy, eight-length allowance pummeling at Gulfstream on Feb. 4 (92 Beyer) that stamped his Kentucky Derby aspirations as realistic and achievable.

This $1.3-million KEESEP son of Tapit still needs to hone his early-race skills by overcoming lackadaisical breaks from the gate. But as the distances increase and he gains experience against larger fields, those are the types of developmental concerns that seasoning can melt away like the spring thaw.

This year, the Tampa Bay Derby has been downgraded from Grade II to III. Part of that demotion had to do with the race's recent trend of well-meant favorites being no-shows while the long-shot winners went on to be low-impact factors in subsequent stakes.

Although the 4-5 choice Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway) won Tampa's big race last year, the previous four Tampa Derbies were won by harder-to-figure horses at odds of 15-1, 49-1, 8-1 and 19-1.

4) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S., Feb. 4. KY Derby Points: 20

As the co-fourth choice on the morning line for Saturday's Fountain of Youth S., Rocket Can isn't facing the same scrutiny or pressure as race favorite and divisional champ Forte. But this Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) will still be under the gun to prove his GIII Holy Bull S. score was no fluke, and he needs to shrug off the stigma of having relatively low speed figures compared to other top Derby hopefuls.

Rocket Can has plateaued with 82 Beyers in his last two starts on Nov. 26 and Feb. 4. But as discussed in previous editions of this list, his efforts rate considerably higher from a “how he did it” visual perspective. He gave up ground on both turns of the Holy Bull while always within three lengths of the leaders, and when he commandeered the lead off the final turn of that short-stretch configuration, Rocket Can finished focused through the lane while chased home by a tenacious stablemate.

Over the same 1 1/16-mile setup that starts close to the first turn and ends at the sixteenth pole, look for jockey Junior Alvarado to try and execute a follow-the-favorite strategy on Saturday, a tactic that should be a smooth fit for this colt's capable stalking style.

5) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style that evokes his sire still merits a strong foothold within the Top 12 despite the certainty that he'll be the last colt on this list to make his first sophomore start.

Powerful and promising at age two, this physically imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) detonated a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never being fully extended.

But in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he got hot and bothered pre-race, then had trouble settling when trying to clear an irrationally exuberant 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter. Cave Rock seized the lead a half-mile from home, but Forte had far more in the tank while Cave Rock languished too long on his left lead in the stretch.

Still, the second-place effort was commendable given those less-than-optimal circumstances, and Cave Rock looms as a front-end force when he finally hits the entries.

6) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael L Petersen; B-DATTT Farm (Ky); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $80,200. Last start: 2nd GIII San Vicente S., Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) was christened a 'TDN Rising Star' upon debut back on opening day at Santa Anita, overcoming multiple examples of trip adversity (some of it self-inflicted) to win first time out.

In start number two, he ran a credible second despite being tactically disadvantaged behind a one-turn-specialist stablemate Havnameltdown (Uncaptured) in the GII San Vicente S. going seven furlongs. The latter returned to just miss in last weekend's G3 Saudi Derby Cup over a stamina-stretching mile.

Additional ground along the Derby trail (next start not yet disclosed) should aid Faustin's development arc, because 10 furlongs is well within the scope of his pedigree. His damsire and sire, Hard Spun and Curlin, finished second and third, respectively, in the 2007 Kentucky Derby. Half a year later, Curlin and Hard Spun ran one-two in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic.

7) HEJAZI (c, Bernardini–G Note, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc.; B-Mary & Chester Broman (Ky); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $3,550,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 4-1-2-1, $108,200. Last Start: 1st SA Maiden Special Weight, Jan. 15. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Hejazi, a New York-bred, $3.55-million EASMAY sale topper, is among the headliners in Saturday's 11-horse GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He has four races of experience, but only one try around two turns, which came last October while still a maiden and attempting winners (third in the GI American Pharoah S.).

He drew post seven for the San Felipe, and coming off a 6 1/2-furlong MSW score in which he led the field through early fractions of :21.97 and :44.28, Hejazi projects to be a forward factor on the stretch-out.

This will be his second start off a freshening (and his first for trainer Tim Yakteen on a transfer from Bob Baffert), and Hejazi merits respect based on the 97 Beyer he earned and the authoritative way he swatted back two deep-stretch challengers inside the final 100 yards.

A concern, though, is that four of the horses he beat on Jan. 15 have already raced again, and the best finish among them was a third-place try.

Instant Coffee's company lines got a boost when the third- and fourth-place finishers out of his Jan. 21 GIII Lecomte S. tally came back to win their next starts. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) scored in last Saturday's GII Rebel S. at 18-1 odds and Denington (Gun Runner) popped at 8-1 in a Feb. 18 first-level allowance route at Fair Grounds.

This son of Bolt d'Oro ($200,000 KEESEP) is three-for-four lifetime, with his only loss coming when fourth in a key renewal of the Breeders' Futurity at Keeneland last October.

He is, however, the type of colt you'd like to see more of before deciding if he's a true 10-furlong horse.

That's not going to happen under trainer Brad Cox's current two-prep sophomore plan. With the Mar. 25 GII Louisiana Derby projected as his next race, Instant Coffee is going to have nine weeks between starts trying to make the jump from 1 1/16 miles to 1 3/16 miles, then another six weeks until the 10-furlong Kentucky Derby.

He's currently two breezes into training since his last race.

9) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One is a longer-the-better type who isn't going to head to Louisville as a Derby standout. Yet he has the staying power and pedigree to be a dangerous threat; the type of double-digit longshot who will sit far back, make one sustained run, and if the trip and pace scenarios shake out in his favor–look out.

This son of Gun Runner out of a full-sister to Eclipse Award and GI Longines Kentucky Oaks winner Untapable (Tapit) is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred who rallied from far off the tailgate and splashed into the homestretch of the GII Rebel S. with abandon, avoiding the crowding that was going on closer to the rail but not still shying from outer-path roughhousing in upper stretch before accelerating with a separate, deep-race burst in the run to the wire (92 Beyer for second).

True, he's never won on dirt. But Red Route One's past-performance block consists of seven route races on turf and dirt, and a wet racetrack hasn't been a problem on the three occasions he's encountered slop (twice second, once fifth).

“Obviously, we're anxious for the races to go farther,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “Not positive we won't wheel him back in the Louisiana Derby, a mile and three-sixteenths. Quit messing around and get him on out there.”

10) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last Start: Won Maiden Special Weight at Santa Anita Jan. 29. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

This colt's 92-Beyer, 5 3/4-length, smash-and-grab score in a six-furlong Santa Anita MSW sprint was encouraging enough for the generally conservative trainer Richard Mandella to declare him a “geaux” for two-turn stakes company, and he'll start from post eight in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe S. on Saturday.

Geaux Rocket Ride's form was flattered when the runner-up from that Jan. 29 win, Sonoran (Ride on Curlin), returned Feb. 20 to break his maiden by 7 1/4 lengths as a 3-5 favorite.

This $350,000 FTKJUL son of Candy Ride (Arg) retains the services of jockey Flavien Prat for this weekend's engagement.

But, like six other entrants in the San Felipe, he'll have to come off the medication Lasix as he advances into stakes territory. That many horses making the off-Lasix switch lends an accentuated a wild-card flavor to what already looms as a tough 11-horse race to handicap.

11) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game is a plucky, adaptable overachiever ($25,000 KEESEP) with some racing royalty in his bloodlines: his dam, former 'TDN Rising Star' Eblouissante, is a Bernardini half-sister to the mighty Zenyatta.

Trainer Keith Desormeaux said this son of Candy Ride (Arg) “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his 94-Beyer winning effort in the sloppy Rebel S. last Saturday. But jockey James Graham was able to settle down Confidence Game during his warm-up, and the colt got a sweet mid-pack trip while fifth behind two longshot speedsters and two stalking favorites who never truly fired despite no-excuse trips.

Responding to far-turn rousing, Confidence Game got third run at the wilting leaders while widest off the turn, then largely avoided inside traffic with a work-in-progress kind of stretch run that included some outward wandering late (94 Beyer).

“He's really come into his own,” Desormeaux said. “He started off pretty immature. But as the races went on [seven total, five of them routes], he has improved things mentally and physically.”

12) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms; B-Nursery Place, Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $182,590. Last Start: Won Feb. 11 GIII Sam F. Davis S. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP colt by Blame, will be on trainer Todd Pletcher's traveling team with an expected next start in the Louisiana Derby. He most recently scored a 1 1/4-length win in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. at Tampa.

Note that even though the track is listed as 'fast' on the Equibase chart, that Feb. 11 race was run in a downpour, which might be a contributing factor to Litigate's tepid 77 Beyer and the race's lethargic closing fractions.

Sent to clear the field from post 10 by Luis Saez, Litigate ably rated back to fifth on the backstretch. He uncorked a decent move between the five-sixteenths pole and the quarter pole, then had to be ridden hard through the lane to put away a 21-1 shot and a 12-1 shot, finishing through driving rain in a sluggish final sixteenth clocked in :7.05.

His two previous tries showed promise, and they could prove to be useful building blocks as this colt attempts longer races more suited to his distance-centric pedigree: sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19, Litigate stalked with purpose behind a three-way battle for the lead, patiently took the overland route through the turn, then drew away respectably. Tasked with a one-turn mile allowance at Gulfstream Jan. 8, he nailed second by a nose behind a daylight winner.

He's worth consideration in New Orleans if you think the long Fair Grounds stretch will be his friend.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 For Mar. 2: Will March Separate Lions From Lambs appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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