likeable | Horse Racing Free Tips

Who Do You ‘Like’ in the Swale?

A last out runaway stakes winner will meet a pair of promising maiden winners in Saturday's GIII Claiborne Farm Swale S. going seven furlongs at Gulfstream.

Save a forgettable trip to the post losing his rider at the start in the Jean Lafitte S. at Delta last November, Drain the Clock (Maclean's Music) has done no wrong in three other attempts, headed by a runaway, front-running tally in Gulfstream's six-furlong Limehouse S. Jan. 2.

“The Swale is a good opportunity to stretch him out an eighth of a mile more. We feel like it's a race that's his for the taking,” trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. said. “His last race was a breakthrough race. We always thought a lot of him.”

The rail-drawn Likeable (Frosted) earned a trip to the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile following an 8 1/4-length maiden breaker at Belmont going a mile second out Sept. 19. The bay, however, could do no better than 13th after pressing a hot pace while making his two turn debut at the Championships in Lexington most recently Nov. 6.

“We kind of threw him to the wolves in the Breeders' Cup. He went too fast early on,” trainer Todd Pletcher said. “We've regrouped since then and he's been training well. We feel like backing up to seven furlongs will be a good distance for him.”

By George (Into Mischief) impressively handled his business on debut for Christophe Clement over sharp next out winner Too Boss (El Padrino) at Aqueduct Dec. 19. Irad Ortiz, Jr. has the call on the 2-1 morning-line favorite.

The post Who Do You ‘Like’ in the Swale? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Drain The Clock Will Stick To One Turn In Saturday’s Swale Stakes

Slam Dunk Racing's Drain the Clock will make his graded-stakes debut in Saturday's $100,000 Claiborne Farm Swale (G3) at Gulfstream Park for connections who are hoping to keep things short and sweet.

Although also nominated to the $200,000 Holy Bull (G3), the 1 1/16-mile Curlin Florida Derby prep that will headline a 12-race program with five graded stakes, Drain the Clock will seek to remain undefeated in South Florida in the seven-furlong undercard feature for 3-year-olds.

“The Swale is a good opportunity to stretch him out an eighth of a mile more. We feel like it's a race that's his for the taking,” trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said.

Drain the Clock captured his Sept. 12 debut in a five-furlong off-the-turn maiden special weight race at Gulfstream before winning a first-level optional claiming allowance at six furlongs at Gulfstream Park West Oct. 28. The son of Maclean's Music was favored to win the Nov. 28 Jean Lafitte Stakes at Delta Downs but unseated his rider when a rein broke during the race.

The Joseph trainee rebounded in a big way at Gulfstream Park Jan. 2 while winning the six-furlong Limehouse Stakes by 7 ½ lengths.

“His last race was a breakthrough race. We always thought a lot of him. First time out he showed that he could relax. Second time out was more workmanlike. Third time out everything went wrong,” Joseph said. “To see him come back like that was more impressive than we could have imagined. It was satisfying to see him win like that.”

Joseph said he isn't ruling out a future stretch-out for Drain the Clock.

“It's definitely in the backs of our minds. We just want to take it step by step,” Joseph said. “The owners are very realistic. They're not going to get Derby Fever. They want to do what's right by the horse.”

Edgard Zayas, who has been aboard Drain the Clock for all three victories, has the return mount.

Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable and Stonestreet Stables LLC's Likeable will cut back in distance for the Swale after finishing far back in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) at Keeneland after pressing a solid early pace.

The son of Frosted finished second in a photo finish in his Saratoga debut Aug. 22 before graduating in a one-turn mile race at Belmont by 8 ¼ lengths.

Luis Saez has the call aboard Likeable.

Jump Sucker Stable, Claiborne Farm and Adele Dilschneider's By George will make only his second career start in the Swale, following his 5 ¼-length maiden romp at Aqueduct Dec. 19.

Irad Ortiz Jr. has the call aboard the Christophe Clement-trained son of Into Mischief.

Stonehedge LLC's Poppy's Pride will seek his fourth straight stakes victory Saturday. The son of Khozan, who is eligible for a $25,000 win-only bonus offered to Florida Sire Stakes-eligible runners, came off a maiden victory to capture the off-the-turf Armed Forces at Gulfstream, the Juvenile Sprint for Florida-breds at Gulfstream Park and the Inaugural at Tampa Bay Downs Dec. 5.

Jesus Rios, who was aboard for the Armed Forces and Juvenile Sprint wins, has the call.

Jim Bakke and Gerry Isbister's Ultimate Badger and West Point Thoroughbreds and Peacock Stable's King's Ovation will represent trainer Dale Romans in the Holy Bull. Ultimate Badger finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Jan. 2 at Gulfstream, while King's Ovation was no factor in an optional claiming allowance at Churchill Downs after breaking his maiden in his second career start.

Jose Ortiz has the call on Ultimate Badger, while Corey Lanerie is named on King's Ovation.

The post Drain The Clock Will Stick To One Turn In Saturday’s Swale Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26

Two new shooters debut on the Top 12 this week and there was a large leap forward from the previously ranked No. 10 contender all the way up to the No. 2 spot. Four qualifying races on the Road to the GI Kentucky Derby points series are on the docket for the next two weekends.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality) O/B-Godolphin (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144. Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13 or GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality will likely add an Eclipse Award to his résumé on Thursday as this undefeated colt preps for either the GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds or the GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. Remaining where he is stabled at Fair Grounds means this Godolphin homebred by Tapit doesn't have to ship while competing for five times more Derby qualifying points (50-20-10-5) than what are up for grabs at Oaklawn (10-4-2-1). But the Risen Star is a more arduous nine furlongs as opposed to the Southwest's 1 1/16 miles. Beyond the choice for Essential Quality's 2021 debut, trainer Brad Cox said earlier this month that the GII Louisiana Derby at 1 3/16 miles would be “in play” Mar. 20. At age two, this colt looked comfortable settling into authoritative stalk mode for all three of his victories. But in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, he did benefit immensely from a speed setup–the Juvenile's fastest opening quarter mile since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003. Essential Quality must overcome the historical burden of only two Juvenile winners in 36 years (Nyquist and Street Sense) parlaying a Breeders' Cup win into a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May.

2) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $166,092. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 23.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

I normally wouldn't get too excited about a recent maiden-breaker who looked dominant on paper wiring an ungraded stakes field. In fact, well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the previous three editions of the Smarty Jones S., but none made an impact as Derby contenders. Caddo River resonates differently, though. This 'TDN Rising Star's 10 1/4-length crushing of the competition on opening day at Oaklawn (92 Beyer Speed Figure) represents the third race in a row this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable set or forced the issue while looking relaxed, torqueing out effectively and leaving the impression there was untapped power in reserve. Caddo River broke fluidly, then was subtly cued to quicken from the outermost seven post to make sure he cleared the field and put a length or two of cushion between him and a hard-to-handle 57-1 shot. He loped down the backstretch, then was nudged for more entering the far turn (even though his lead was not in danger). He cruised into a higher gear under light coaxing and was hand-ridden for a solo drive to the wire. Caddo River's emphatic double-digit winning margin came over a short-stretch configuration, meaning he didn't have an extra sixteenth of straightaway late in the race to pad that margin. Owned, bred (and named after) Arkansas connections, Caddo River almost certainly will remain on the Oaklawn prep path to Louisville.

3) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d'Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: Mdn win, Belmont, Sept. 19
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Likeable celebrates his foaling-date birthday Jan. 26 and appears ready to hit the entries now more than a month into his winter training at Palm Beach Downs. This $350,000 KEESEP Frosted colt's race progression so far includes a very useful debut at Saratoga when second despite trip woes; a freewheeling one-turn mile MSW at Belmont that he wired by 8 1/2 lengths, and what amounts to a thrown-to-the-wolves 13th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, in which Likeable pulled, got hooked four wide into the first turn, then contributed to an unsustainably torrid pace that cooked him by the time the field hit the far turn. He's the type of horse who projects to run well at Gulfstream, either in a one-turn mile or at 1 1/16 miles around two, because both configurations favor outright speed.

4) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $900,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Last Start: Mdn win, Gulfstream, Dec. 12
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prime Factor closed at 21-1 odds in last weekend's Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager. It's likely that his prep path toward the Derby will look similar to that of his sire, Quality Road, who used victories in both the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. and the GI Florida Derby to propel him toward Kentucky Derby favoritism before quarter cracks derailed Quality Road's chances of starting in the Triple Crown. I wrote in the last installment of the Top 12 how this $900,000 KEESEP colt's MSW romp Dec. 12 at Gulfstream was the most authoritative maiden win among the Derby candidates, but Saturday's wowza performance by Prevalence (Medaglia d'Oro) has given Prime Factor a run for the money for that distinction (read more below at No. 7). Still, let's not allow any form of recency bias to erase how convincingly this Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to blast home by 8 3/4 lengths in an 85 Beyer effort that clocked 0.08 seconds faster than the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for established older distaffers on the same card.

5) JACKIE'S WARRIOR (c, Maclean's Music–Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (Ky). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $95,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 12.

Although I'm sure the connections of Jackie's Warrior would have much rather finished first in the Juvenile to cap what would have been a five-for-five season, the fact that this $95,000 KEESEP Maclean's Music colt was only 3 1/4 lengths behind Essential Quality in the most important race of the year for 2-year-olds now means “Jackie” doesn't have to prep for his 2021 debut under a figurative microscope. The pressure of being an undefeated champ comes with the difficult task of being a target for the rest of the division, and for some developing colts, that's too much. Right now, Jackie is projected to start in the Southwest S., raising the tantalizing possibility of an early-season rematch with Essential Quality (who has not committed either way). Speculating which colt might have the upper hand is a fun mental exercise three weeks out from that race. Right now, I'd give the head-to-head edge to Jackie, based on his dominant ability to control the pace. But that assessment might not hold for longer races deeper into the spring, when stamina questions are likely to swirl.

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief–Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $525,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 2
Next Start: Possible for GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 10.

This $525,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay is on a similar prep-race trajectory as trainer Bob Baffert's 2020 Derby winner Authentic, who used the GIII Sham S. and GII San Felipe S. as his early-season springboard until the Derby got rescheduled for September. Baffert has noted similarities between the two colts, who, beyond sharing a sire, are hallmarked by a speed-centric, headstrong, aggressive way of going. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 Sham in wire-to-wire fashion, racking up an eye-catching 101 Beyer in the process (Authentic earned a 90 Beyer for his Sham). But, like Authentic in January last year, Life Is Good still comes across as more of a raw-talent work in progress, and it's difficult to gauge just how sharp a crew Life Is Good roughed up in that strung-out five-horse stakes. Baffert has now won seven editions of the Sham, but Authentic was the only one of his six Derby champs to have won that prep race. In fact, Baffert's only other Sham winner to even run in the Derby was Bob and John (17th in 2006).

7) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'Oro—Enrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $25,800.
Last Start: 1st GP maiden, Jan. 23
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 0.

The seven-furlong MSW on the Pegasus undercard at Gulfstream Saturday had the look of a “loaded” race as soon as the overnight was drawn, and the only real surprise was that one of the talented colts would manage to win it by 8 1/2 geared-down lengths. Prevalence broke inward and brushed with a rival, then righted himself to prowl through the pack and secure the rail in a spirited five-way fight for the lead. One by one his rivals peeled away, and at the entrance to the turn Prevalence had wrested a half-length lead under pressure. He opened up incrementally while still hand-ridden, and by the head of the lane was as good as gone while some pretty nice colts behind him were under full-out drives. Left in his wake were the runner-up Stage Raider (Pioneerof the Nile), a half-brother to 2018 Triple Crown champ Justify, and third-place Ghazaaly (Curlin), a $1.05-million KEESEP buy. The 89-Beyer performance earned Prevalence 'TDN Rising Star' status while also giving Godolphin no fewer than three homebreds (for three different trainers) in the current Top 12.

8) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales history: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-2, $221,420.
Last Start: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Aiming for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 3rd GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby points: 16.

Midnight Bourbon, who hit his third birthdate Jan. 25, made a positive impression with a wire-to-wire win in the GIII Lecomte S. The question he'll need to answer is how much he relied on an ideal pace scenario to propel him to that victory. The Lecomte drew flush with early speed, but after three scratches and a stutter-step start by the remaining main pace threat in the race, this $525,000 KEESEP colt was handed the lead from post one, and was allowed to dictate a moderate enough tempo (:24.68 and :48.99) that left him with plenty of energy to flick away two far-turn bids from the Nos. 9 and 11 contenders on this list. But Midnight Bourbon did finish up professionally while being kept to task, and his 91 Beyer for the effort is respectable for a 3-year-old who hadn't raced since Oct. 10. Seeing two-time GI Breeders' Cup Classic champ Tiznow anchor the top line in this colt's pedigree is heartening from a stamina standpoint, and trainer Steve Asmussen confirmed he would be pointed toward the GII Risen Star S. and GII Louisiana Derby.

9) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 4-2-2-0, $107,700.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 4.

Proxy got first run at Midnight Bourbon in the Lecomte S., and although this Tapit homebred for Godolphin couldn't seal the deal to reel in that solo pacemaker, he did glean a useful lesson in how to claw back his position when headed in the stretch by 4-5 favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun as they battled for second. Although the soft internal splits worked to the advantage of Midnight Bourbon, Proxy was only a length behind at the wire, and the 1:44.41 final time for 1 1/16 miles was only 0.14 seconds shy of the same-distance clocking set by older horses in the GIII Louisiana S. earlier on the card. The Lecomte also marked Proxy's return to Lasix-free racing (he's now won twice on it and finished second twice without it), which is a must this year for sophomores competing on the Lasix-free Triple Crown trail. “The way he dug in and held off the favorite in the end, and was getting to the winner, I couldn't have been happier,” said trainer Michael Stidham. “I think the farther the better.”

10) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior's Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wnlg '18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., Kee, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Highly Motivated is now two half-mile breezes into his Palm Meadows training for a 2021 debut, meaning the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) could be in play. Thus far he's a 2-for-3 sprint specialist, but this $240,000 KEENOV Into Mischief colt's stalking 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. score was a track-record-setting key race that kicked off the Breeders' Cup undercard, having produced three next-out winners (in the Sugar Bowl S. at Fair Grounds, a Churchill open allowance, and a Louisiana-bred stakes at Fair Grounds). Jockey Javier Castellano, who has been out since after the Breeders' Cup to heal from scheduled hip surgery, made it a point earlier this winter to say he'd like to be back in time for the FOY, which is key for this colt, because he was Highly Motivated's rider every time out last season.

11) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 3rd GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Next Start: Possible for GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 2.

'TDN Rising Star' Mandaloun was tactically disadvantaged by being three wide on both turns behind a tepid pace in the Lecomte S., and this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief also lost the race within the race by letting Proxy come back to beat him for second after Mandaloun looked him in the eye but couldn't clear him. Still, in the larger picture, one subpar effort in January shouldn't derail this colt from Derby aspirations. He bulled through heavy traffic to break his maiden and then convincingly won an allowance, both at Churchill, and his 89 Beyer in the Lecomte still represents an upward arc in Mandaloun's numbers progression. “I think we are going to add blinkers,” Cox said the day after the Lecomte. “I talked it over with the Juddmonte team and Florent [jockey Geroux]. We kind of thought that ever since his first race.”

12) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban–Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (Ky). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity,
3rd GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Aiming for the GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15.
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 18.

Although Keepmeinmind didn't break his maiden until he won the Nov. 29 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., jockey David Cohen said it was the deep closer's first career start Sept. 2 that stamped him as a Classic-caliber colt. “When we made that first start at a mile, which is very hard the first time out, we came out of the [second-outermost post], and he made it down to the rail, squeezed through a tight spot, had a tough time for a first start. But he showed a lot of heart,” Cohen told the Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette last week. As an off-the-pace specialist, the Laoban colt might be against the grain of both the 1 1/16 miles distance and the speed-rewarding nature of the Oaklawn surface in the Southwest S. But so long as Keepmeinmind continues to accumulate qualifying points, the more sneaky-good his Derby chances look. This probably isn't the type of colt who will get to the first Saturday in May by racking up multiple wins in prep races. But as a maternal grandson of Victory Gallop, he'd be tough to leave out of Derby exotics with a running style that suggests he's capable of passing multiple horses in the stretch of a 20-horse race over 10 furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Bezos (Empire Maker): Baffert trainee closed at 26-1 in Pool 2 of the Derby Future Wager on Sunday-a remarkable price because this $190,000 KEENOV and $400,000 KEESEP colt has yet to start in a race.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole makes 2021 debut in Saturday's GIII Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita. This two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) was a 94-1 second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

King Fury (Curlin): This $950,000 FTSAUG colt was previously ranked at No. 12 on this list, but workout inactivity so far this year has caused him to be leapfrogged by others who are a bit farther along the Derby trail.

Nova Rags (Union Rags): Favored Bill Mott-trained colt looped group five-sixteenths out and was kept to task despite no challengers late in 75-Beyer Pasco S. tally at Tampa Jan. 16.

Santa Cruiser (Dialed In): Figured as main pace threat in Lecomte off tenacious MSW mile win but got shuffled to last at break and really never ran his race. Closed well enough from far back to manage a better-than-looks fourth.

Speaker's Corner (Street Sense): Formerly rated at No. 7, this Godolphin homebred trained by Mott owns a key-race MSW win at Belmont back on Oct. 11, but workout inactivity this year has triggered relegation out of the Top 12.

The Great One (Nyquist): Runner-up as a maiden in the Dec. 19 GII Los Alamitos Futurity returned on Saturday to win a Santa Anita MSW by 14 1/2 lengths in a four-horse field. Trainer Doug O'Neill said the San Felipe S. is the next logical spot.

The post The TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 For Jan. 26 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12

Next-race plans are starting to solidify for some of the contenders among the Top 12, including a possible No. 1 vs. No. 4 matchup at Oaklawn in February. Farther down the list, Nos. 5 and 9 will clash this Saturday in the GIII Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds.

1) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit—Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,335,144.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

The connections of 3-for-3 ‘TDN Rising Star’ Essential Quality are mapping out a campaign for the presumptive divisional champ that could end up with the high-energy gray prepping in the GII Louisiana Derby prior to taking aim at the GI Kentucky Derby. But the first race of this Tapit colt’s sophomore season is still a moving target. After winning the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, “we didn’t give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well,” trainer Brad Cox said. “He was really good [in his early January training] and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February.” Cox said the nine-furlong GII Risen Star S. Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds is “on the table,” as is the 1 1/16 miles GIII Southwest S. Feb. 15 at Oaklawn. “The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it’s a lot more [Derby qualifying] points, so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months?” Cox added that even if the Godolphin homebred does ship from New Orleans to race at Hot Springs, “I’m 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

2) LIKEABLE (c, Frosted–Dashing Debby, by Medaglia d’Oro)
O-Repole Stable, St. Elias Stable & Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-1-0, $49,050.
Last Start: 13th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Likeable, a $350,000 KEESEP colt, owns a dazzling 8 1/2-length MSW score at Belmont last September sandwiched by a much-better-than-it-looks runner-up debut at Saratoga and a “too fast to last” effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. If trainer Todd Pletcher can hone this colt’s sharp, natural gate speed into a more efficient version of what we saw from Likeable at age two, look out. Dam Dashing Debby (Medaglia d’Oro) won her debut sprinting by 10 1/4 lengths in a Calder stake back in 2009 and was acquired shortly thereafter by Stonestreet Stables, right on the heels of another Medaglia d’Oro filly acquired by Stonestreet–eventual champ Rachel Alexandra. Since then, Dashing Debby has produced two black-type winners–one sprinting on dirt and the other around two turns on grass–plus a yearling colt by Speightstown who hammered for $800,000 at the 2020 KEESEP sale. Likeable’s MGISW sire Frosted figures to add depth and bottom to the pedigree equation, and this colt is now breezing up to five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs in prep for his sophomore unveiling.

3) PRIME FACTOR (c, Quality Road–Haylie Brae, by Bernardini)
O-CHC Inc. & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Two Hearts Farm LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $900,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $24,000.
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Last Start: 1st Msw, GP, Dec. 12
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

The most authoritative maiden win among the Top 12? That would belong to Prime Factor, a $900,000 KEESEP Quality Road colt who ran roughshod over what looked like a pretty decent crew Dec. 12 at Gulfstream, earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ distinction. This Todd Pletcher trainee widened under wraps to bowl home by 8 3/4 lengths in a 1:10.38 clocking (85 Beyer) that went .08 seconds faster than the only other six-furlong race on the card, the GIII Sugar Swirl S. for older female sprinters. The fourth-place finisher from that race, Broadway (Quality Road), a $500,000 FTSAUG buy, won a Tampa MSW route race this past Friday at 4-5 odds, while the second- and third-place runners both came back to run third in their respective races Saturday at Gulfstream. Longer distances appear to be Prime Factor’s sweet spot based on his pedigree. He’s out of a Bernardini mare, and second dam Dance Swiftly is a full-sister to Canadian Horse of the Year and U.S. Eclipse Award winner Dance Smartly, winner of the 1991 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff.

4) JACKIE’S WARRIOR (c, Maclean’s Music—Unicorn Girl, by A. P. Five Hundred)
O-J Kirk & Judy Robison. B-J & J Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $95,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-4-0-0, $502,564.
Last Start: 4th GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6
Accomplishments: 1st GII Saratoga Special, 1st GI Runhappy Hopeful S., 1st GI Champagne S.
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 12.

With blowout speed and an aura of being in a different league than his overmatched foes, Jackie’s Warrior dominated the division last summer through early autumn. This $95,000 KEESEP Maclean’s Music colt appeared primed to pounce in the Breeders’ Cup, yet even though he carved out a no-excuse stalking trip behind the Juvenile’s fastest opening quarter since 2014 and its fastest half-mile split since 2003 and got first run at the wilting leaders a quarter mile from the short-stretch finish, “Jackie” couldn’t sustain his bid in deep stretch. He’s now two breezes into his return, but even though he’s based at Fair Grounds, trainer Steve Asmussen told the Blood-Horse last week that the Oaklawn preps might be this colt’s path to Louisville, based on the lucrative purses, qualifying points, and “pace being as effective as it is at Oaklawn.” The connections of No. 1-ranked Essential Quality are also considering the Feb. 15 Southwest S. for that colt’s 2021 debut, potentially setting up an early season showdown of two of the division’s heaviest hitters.

5) PROXY (c, Tapit–Panty Raid, by Include)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Michael Stidham. Lifetime Record: 3-2-1-0, $67,700.
Last Start: 1st Alw, FG, Dec. 19
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Proxy should be a pace component in Saturday’s GIII Lecomte S., and this Tapit homebred for Godolphin has the unique advantage of already having won twice around two turns at this Fair Grounds meet. Even though his Dec. 19 N2L allowance win came only against three other rivals and earned a so-so 76 Beyer, Proxy was tag-team pressured by every horse in the race at some point and appeared emboldened when mixing it up in close quarters in his stretch fight. Jockey Angel Suarez recently suffered a broken femur, so he’s off Proxy in favor of Mitchell Murrill, whose only lifetime graded stakes victory was at this distance over this track. Proxy will also be going back off Lasix (he raced on Lasix for both of his Fair Grounds wins, but not in his runner-up Monmouth debut in October, in which he was beaten only by a neck). “He’s like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” trainer Michael Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that.”

6) LIFE IS GOOD (c, Into Mischief– Beach Walk, by Distorted Humor)
O-CHC Inc & WinStar Farm LLC. B-Gary & Mary West Stable (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $525,000 yrl ’19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $94,200.
Last Start: 1st GIII Sham S., Jan. 2, Santa Anita
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Life Is Good won the Jan. 2 GII Sham S. in wire-to-wire fashion, ticking the two-turn box on his progression checklist. This $525,000 KEESEP colt by Into Mischief earned a 101 Beyer for clocking a mile in 1:36.63, pulsing around the track largely unopposed though quarter-mile splits of :23.56, :23.11, :23.99 and :25.97. The 1-5 fave broke inward at the start and bumped mildly with a rival, then cleared the field from the outermost five hole while giving up four paths of real estate on the turn, bounding along by his lonesome onto the backstretch. Life Is Good remained hand-ridden until deep stretch when 9-1 stablemate Medina Spirit (Protonico) closed the gap while under a vigorous drive, and Life Is Good drifted out while asked for a more by Mike Smith, who showed (but did not utilize) the whip. “I always tell Mike to try and save something,” Baffert said post-race. “Life Is Good wasn’t as tired as I thought he could have been. He needs to learn to relax a little bit better, but he will.” Look for him in about two months, most likely in the Mar. 6 GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita.

7) SPEAKER’S CORNER (c, Street Sense–Tyburn Brook, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-William Mott. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $43,290.
Last Start: 1st Mdn, Belmont, Oct. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Speaker’s Corner, a Godolphin homebred by Street Sense out of a Bernardini mare (same cross as Godolphin’s highly-rated Maxfield) competed in two of the stronger MSWs at Saratoga and Belmont last season. This colt’s debut on closing day at the Spa was a green third, but both Speaker’s Corner and the runner-up came back to win. And this colt’s maiden-breaking tally despite minor trip trouble over seven furlongs at Belmont also has the makings of a key race, featuring sharp splits and a reeling in of a next-out winner–Caddo River (Hard Spun)–who earned ‘TDN Rising Star’ status upon his own graduation (the eighth-place finisher from that MSW also came back to win). With a sire who won the 2007 Derby and a second dam who scored in the 2006 GI Breeders’ Cup Distaff, the colt’s pedigree has a longer-the-better-slant.

8) HIGHLY MOTIVATED (c, Into Mischief–Strong Incentive, by Warrior’s Reward)
O/B-Klaravich Stables, Inc (KY). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 wlg ’18 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-1-0, $124,050.
Last Start: 1st Nyquist S., KEE, Nov. 6
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. Ky Derby Points: 0.

Every year there’s an undercard 2-year-old winner from Breeders’ Cup weekend whose buzz carries over, and this season Highly Motivated qualifies as that colt. This Into Mischief bay won the Nyquist S. to run his record to 2-for-3 (all sprints), and three rivals who finished behind him have since come back to win. Klaravich Stable bred Highly Motivated after racing his Chad Brown-trained dam, the seven-furlong black-type stakes winner Strong Incentive. But this colt went through the auction ring for $240,000 at KEENOV because Klaravich was buying out a partner who co-owned the weanling. Authentic’s decisive wins in the Derby and GI Breeders’ Cup Classic last season certainly helped to answer questions about the ability for Into Mischief’s progeny to carry speed up to 10 furlongs. But this colt’s dam-sire, Warrior’s Reward, made his mark as a sprinter, registering his lone stakes win at seven furlongs in the 2010 GI Carter H.

9) MANDALOUN (c, Into Mischief–Brooch, by Empire Maker)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms Inc. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $91,252.
Last Start: 1st Alw, CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

‘TDN Rising Star’ Mandaloun will start favored in Saturday’s Lecomte S. at Fair Grounds. That will be the route debut for this Juddmonte homebred by Into Mischief out of an Empire Maker mare. “We’ve always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical makeup and how he trains,” trainer Brad Cox said. “It shows how much talent he’s got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances, and now we’re going to do what we’ve thought he’s wanted to do all along, and that’s go long.” Mandaloun drew post 10 with no shortage of speed to his inside, which could end up being a tactical advantage if he seeks a stalking trip like in his previous two wins. Mandaloun needed (and responded to) a rousing ride from the five-sixteenths pole home in his 82-Beyer Churchill allowance score.

10) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $76,092.
Last Start: 1st Msw, CD, Nov. 15
Accomplishments: ‘TDN Rising Star’
Next Start: Smarty Jones S., OP, Jan. 22
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

Cox confirmed Thursday that ‘TDN Rising Star’ Caddo River will make his debut at two turns in Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones S., the track’s Jan. 22 opening-day feature. This Hard Spun colt demonstrated ability to withstand serious pace pressure while forcing the issue on or near the lead against top-notch maiden fields at Saratoga and Belmont prior to punching through in a Churchill MSW that he commandeered by 9 1/2 lengths. Even though Caddo River has already won at the eight-furlong distance of the Smarty Jones, he’ll have to adapt from the one-turn mile configuration that he relished at Churchill to a short-stretch finish around two bends at Oaklawn, where mile races start and end at the sixteenth pole. Well-bet, wire-to-wire horses have won each of the last three editions of the Smarty Jones–but none of them went on to make an impact on the Derby trail. Caddo River’s speed should stand him in good stead at Oaklawn. But he’s a rangy, leggy colt, and short-stretch route races are often won by horses built more like compact cruisers (taller, lankier striders don’t have that extra sixteenth in the straight to fully uncoil).

11) KEEPMEINMIND (c, Laoban—Inclination, by Victory Gallop)
O-Cypress Creek LLC & Arnold Bennewith. B-Southern Equine Stables, LLC (KY). T-Robertino Diodoro. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 4-1-2-1, $394,320.
Last Start: 1st GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, 3rd GI TVG Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
Next Start: Possible for GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 18.

Keepmeinmind worked a half-mile in :50.20 Wednesday at Oaklawn (39/94) under regular rider David Cohen, his first breeze since rallying from last to win the GII Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes as a maiden Nov. 28. “Very easy half, with a nice long gallop out,” Cohen said post-work. “He seemed to have matured since his last race.” Breaking a maiden in a stakes must run in the family: His sire, Laoban, wired the 2016 GII Jim Dandy S. at 27-1 odds for his only career win. Prior to his first career victory, Keepmeinmind ran second then third behind No. 1-ranked Essential Quality in the GI Breeders’ Futurity S. and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, beaten only 5 1/4 combined lengths. You’ve heard that stat about the 36 winners of the Juvenile scoring in only two Kentucky Derbies? Second- and third-place Juvenile horses don’t fare any better. Those 72 placings have accounted for only one Derby win, with Spend A Buck (third in the inaugural Juvenile back in 1984) the lone exception.

12) KING FURY (c, Curlin–Taris, by Flatter)
O-Fern Circle Stables & Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. B-Heider Family Stables LLC (Ky). T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $950,000 yrl ’19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-0-0, $142,739.
Last Start: 5th GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 28
Accomplishments: 1st Street Sense S.
Next Start: Uncommitted
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

With a foaling date of Jan. 12, King Fury is the only member of the Top 12 to reach his actual third birthdate. This $950,000 FTSAUG yearling by Curlin is a smooth mover with an ample (five races at 1 1/16 miles) foundation of two-turn experience. His form, on paper at least, lost a bit of shine with off-the-board finishes in the Juvenile and Kentucky Jockey Club S. But he had minor trip trouble when wheeling back into the Breeders’ Cup on just 12 days between starts and his blinkers-on experiment as a frontrunner under the lights Nov. 28 might have been a tactical aberration. Still plenty of upside here, and a 2-for-3 record at Churchill won’t hurt as the first Saturday in May comes more clearly into focus.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Brooklyn Strong (Wicked Strong): This 5,000 OBSAPR gelding upset the GII Remsen S. over nine furlongs and will aim for repeat at same distance in the Feb 6 GIII Withers S.

Capo Kane (Street Sense): Speed in hand to top of stretch then responded when roused (although a touch green) in his 84-Beyer Jerome S. score. Now aims for Withers S.

Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow): Half to 2019 sprint champ Mitole ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) pointed toward GIII Lewis S. Jan. 30 off 94-1 second behind Essential Quality in the Juvenile.

Manor House (Upstart): Saturday’s Lecomte is glutted with speed, but this colt’s debut wiring of a Laurel MSW by 12 ¼ lengths still stands out in the past performances (76 Beyer; fourth-place horse from that race came back to win). This colt is cross-entered in a 1x/optional claimer earlier on Saturday’s Fair Grounds card and could opt for that spot instead.

Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief): Rallied from long way last to win GII Bourbon S. on turf, then no-impact 10th in GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Change of surface and tactics when winning the Jan. 2 Mucho Macho Man S. earns this colt another likely stakes date on dirt.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for Jan. 12 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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