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Equibase Analysis: Endorsed, Chess Chief Candidates To Fill Out Pegasus Exacta Behind Knicks Go

Saturday's Grade 1, $3 Million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes has been touted for nearly three months as a matchup between Breeders' Cup Classic winner Knicks Go and Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner Life Is Good. Combined, these two powerful horses won nine of 12 races in 2021, with Knicks Go having kicked off his campaign with a victory in this race one year ago.

Seven others entered and none are slouches, though few are as accomplished as the top pair. Sir Winston has won six of 19 career starts including the G1 Belmont Stakes in 2019 and he most recently won the G3 Valedictory Stakes last month. Chess Chief won the G2 New Orleans Classic Stakes last March at the distance of the Pegasus World Cup and also enters the race off a win, in the Tenacious Stakes near the end of the year. Title Ready won the G3 Louisiana Stakes a little over a year ago and has only raced three times since then, most recently when sixth in the Tinsel Stakes in mid-December. Endorsed was a fast closing second in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes last month at Gulfstream and is approaching the half-million mark in career earnings, but his last victory was in May of 2020. Empty Tomb finished second in the Queens County Stakes in his most recent race but has never won a stakes race. Similarly, Commandeer won his final two races of 2021 but this will be his first try in a stakes race in his 11th career start. Stilleto Boy rounds out the field, with a two-for-12 record including a win in the Iowa Derby last July.

Analysis:

Considering both Knicks Go and Life Is Good have earned each and every one of their 15 career wins (combined) when leading from the start, the first question to ask ourselves is whether this is a case of the irresistible force versus the immovable object. One potential scenario is that both horses hook up from the start and go so fast in the first portions of the race they are out of gas by the time the field hits the home stretch, with the race won in an upset by one of the other seven. Certainly after about an eighth of a mile has been run we will know if that is the case.

I believe that will not be the case, because Knicks Go is faster than Life Is Good when push comes to shove, and the fact Knicks Go gets the rail whereas Life Is Good will break from the four post. Those factors should give Knicks Go the edge. Whether Life Is Good can relax in second position in the early stages then pass Knicks Go late is a question to be answered as the race is being run. My belief is that will not happen.

Additionally, since Empty Tomb comes into the race off the two best races of his career, having led through the opening half-mile in both, that leads to more early pressure on Life Is Good. Since not leading in the early stages is foreign to Life Is Good, he can be passed late by one of a couple of horses who will be far back in the early stages.

Contenders to win:

In terms of total speed, as measured by  Equibase Speed Figures, Knicks Go has an advantage in that department as well, with a 117 figure in last year's Pegasus World Cup following a rest after winning the 2020 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile (won by Life Is Good last year). Following the Pegasus, Knicks Go earned a 119 figure winning the Cornhusker Handicap (at the distance of the Pegasus), a 118 figure winning the Whitney Stakes (at the distance of the Pegasus), and a 119 figure winning the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Although Life Is Good equaled that 119 figure in his Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile win, he has never run this mile and one-eighth trip whereas Knicks Go has won four of five starts at the distance. Life is Good's other wins last year consisted of 115 figures in the San Felipe Stakes and when beaten a nose in the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial Stakes last summer. Additionally, the second and third place finishers (Ginobili and Restrainedvengence) beaten by Life Is Good in the Mile aren't up to the same standards as the next two behind Knicks Go (Medina Spirit and Essential Quality) in the Classic. Therefore Knicks Go appears to be the one to beat by far in this years' Pegasus World Cup Invitational, and as stated earlier I am taking the stand Life Is Good can be beaten for second as well.

The horse with the best “counter-energy” profile appears to be Endorsed, and it is not totally improbable he could post the upset if Knicks Go does not win. Although his 10 starts last year were all in one-turn races, and although he did not win one of them, Endorsed ran very well in his two most recent starts, earning 104 and 99 figures respectively, especially his last race when he missed winning the Mr. Prospector Stakes by a half-length when rallying from last of seven in the early stages. Earlier in his career, Endorsed was successful in two-turn races, such as when winning at Gulfstream Park in January 2020 then finishing second in the Alydar Stakes at Belmont that spring at the distance of the Pegasus. With very strong morning workouts at Gulfstream Park leading to this race and with a late running style benefited by a likely exceedingly fast early pace, Endorsed could get into the top two for the 11th time in his 23rd career start on dirt.

Another horse with potential to lag back early and get into second, with a very slight chance to win, is Chess Chief. This hard-knocking 6-year-old has earned over $800,000 in his career and enters the race off a win last month in the Tenacious Stakes at Fair Grounds with a 106 figure. That equaled the 106 figure earned when rallying from last of seven to win the New Orleans Classic Stakes last March, which was the biggest win of his career. Now that he's back in winning form, another “A” effort is certainly not out of the question.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best  Equibase Speed Figures, is Commandeer (97), Empty Tomb (113), Sir Winston (107), Stilleto Boy (108) and Title Ready (102).

Win Contender:
Knicks Go

Contenders for the exacta:
Endorsed
Chess Chief

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, January 29 – Post Time 5:34 PM E.T.
One and One Eighth Miles
Four Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $3 Million

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Quality on TAP on Pegasus Day

One can always count on Todd Pletcher to make a show of force on the big days. This Saturday's Pegasus World Cup Invitational card is no different, with the Hall of Fame trainer offering strong representation in all three of Gulfstream's Pegasus events.

“It's a really marquee day for the Championship Meet at Gulfstream,” Pletcher said. “The Pegasus has attracted some of the best horses in training since it's been in existence. It's early enough in the season for horses that want to go to stud like Gun Runner did and Knicks Go is doing, and its useful in kicking off the upcoming season. It's a significant event that has etched out its spot on the calendar.”

Looking for his first GI Pegasus World Cup victory, Pletcher offers the uber-talented 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief), who has done very little wrong in his career, winning five of six career starts, with his only loss coming at the hands of Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music) in the GI H. Allen Jerkens Memorial at Saratoga last summer.

Following his narrow defeat, the WinStar Farm and CHC LLC runner has proven unstoppable, rolling over older rivals in both the GII Kelso H. followed by the GI Big Ass Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile at Del Mar last November.

“The Breeders' Cup was kind of a relief for me because I was expecting him to win,” conceded Pletcher. “Any time you are in that type of situation, you can be a little anxious. But, we knew he'd go fast. There were a few other fast horses in there, so he had to go pretty quickly into the first turn to clear, so when they're throwing up those kinds of fractions, you're just hoping he hasn't gone too fast. But, he's such a gifted horse that he's capable of doing that. Like everyone else, we were very impressed, and we were happy it went according to plan.”

When asked if he thought the strapping 4-year-old could handle the extra yardage while trying nine furlongs for the first time in his career, Pletcher didn't mince words.

“I don't know that we have seen his best distance,” he stated. “He is like a lot of really good horses that do a lot of things very well. He's shown how fast he is. And in the [BC Dirt Mile] he has shown that he has that high-cruising speed and the ability to carry it over a distance. So, in his training, I have not seen any limitations to what he may be able to do. He still has to prove that at [Gulfstream], but when you watch him train, he never stops. It gives us optimism that he'll handle the extra ground.”

According to Pletcher, a win on Saturday could pave the way to an international sojourn.

“If this goes well, the plan is to take a look at the [10-furlong G1] Dubai World Cup [Mar. 26].”

Arguably known best for his powerful arsenal of dirt horses, Pletcher shows he is equally adept at handling a top turf runner, and gets to prove it yet again with the GI Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational's defending champion and morning-line favorite Colonel Liam (Liam's Map). Campaigned by Robert and Lawana Low, the grey won four stakes in 2021, including the GI Turf Classic–albeit in a dead heat–at Churchill Downs last spring. He went to the sidelines after an eighth-place finish in the 10-furlong GI Manhattan S. June 5.

“Last year, we had just a little bit more time and we were able to run him in the Tropical Park Derby,” said Pletcher, explaining the lead up to last year's race. “He won that and it set him up nicely for this race. This year, the way the calendar came up, we just didn't have time for a prep. But, he's a willing work horse and we've done plenty with him.”

In this year's Turf, Pletcher is also represented by Repole Stable's Never Surprised (Constitution), who has never finished worse than second in seven career starts. The 7-2 second choice on the morning line, the bay enters this year's Turf off a pair of impressive victories–in the Nov. 26 Gio Ponti S. at the Big A and most recently in the Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream one month later. He drew post 12 in the nine-furlong event.

“He's a free-running horse with natural speed,” said Pletcher. “It's not an ideal post for him, given his style. But, if he'll settle like he did the last time, I think he's a horse that could be dangerous.”

Also likely to garner healthy respect at the windows for the inaugural running of the PWC Filly and Mare Turf, the Low's Sweet Melania (American Pharoah) has already proven she was more than capable of handling several of these rivals when winning Gulfstream's GIII Suwanee River S. Dec. 18. Left in her wake that day were Shifty She (Gone Astray, 2nd), In a Hurry (Blame, 3rd) and Alms (City Zip, 7th).

“I was really pleased with her last race, I thought that was one of her better races,” he said. “She's been very consistent throughout her career, but I thought that was an especially good performance from her. I actually think she's coming into this a little better than she was for that race.”

On the Pegasus undercard, Pletcher also offers a one-two punch in the GIII Fred W. Hooper S. with Fearless (Ghostzapper) and Liam (Liam's Map). Fearless, who has won four of five starts at Gulfstream, is coming off a four-length score in the GIII Harlan's Holiday S. after finishing second in a Nov. 21 overnight handicap at Gulfstream while coming off a six-month layoff. Liam returned off over a year on the bench to win in a Gulfstream optional claimer at a mile Dec. 15.

“He's a horse that I think kind of benefitted from the race off the layoff and then made a move forward in the Harlan's Holiday,” Pletcher said of Fearless, who was initially being considered for the PWC. “He seems to really like Gulfstream. He always runs well over that track. He's held form since then and has been training sharply.”

In other stakes action, Pletcher is also represented by Always Shopping (Awesome Again) in the GIII La Prevoyante S.; Abaan (Will Take Charge) in the GIII W. L. McKnight S. and A G Indy (Take Charge Indy) in the GII Inside Information S.

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Pegasus World Cup News Minute Presented By DRF Bets: Knicks Go, Life Is Good Ready To Roll

The sixth running of the $3-million, Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational on Saturday, Jan. 29, from Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla., features the first meeting of defending champion Knicks Go, the presumptive 2021 Horse of the Year, and the once-beaten Life Is Good, a spectacular winner of the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in his last start.

The Pegasus World Cup is the last of seven graded stakes on a 12-race program that begins at 11:30 a.m. ET.

Also featured are the inaugural Pegasus World Cup Filly & Mare Turf and the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational, where Colonel Liam will try to defend his title.

Get all the details from Ray Paulick on this year's Pegasus World Cup day that will see large, competitive fields throughout the program (average field size of just under 11 horses per race).

View the Pegasus News Minute Presented by DRF Bets below.

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Pegasus Draw: ‘Knicks’ Gets Rail, ‘Good’ in Post 4

HALLANDALE, FL–During Tuesday's Pegasus World Cup Invitational post-position draw in the Sport of Kings Theatre at Gulfstream Park Tuesday, the stage was set for what is shaping up to be another intriguing renewal of Pegasus World Cup Invitational, including the PWC Turf and the newest addition to the World Cup series, the Filly and Mare Turf Invitational, which replaces the GIII Marshua's River S. Heading Saturday's Pegasus card is the nine-furlong main-track test for older horses, led by defending champion Korea Racing Authority's Knicks Go (Paynter) and WinStar Farm and CHC LLC's Life Is Good (Into Mischief).

The winner of last fall's GI Breeders' Cup Classic drew the rail, while GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile scorer drew the more palatable position in the gate and will exit post 4.

“We're not really going to deviate from what we've done in the past,” said trainer Brad Cox of Knicks Go. “[Life Is Good] is a very fast, brilliant horse. We're not going to let him have his own way, and I think he's probably not going to let us have our own way. We're going to break running, hopefully, get to the lead. We're going to be very aggressive to get him there.”

Regular rider Joel Rosario is set to ride the 6-5 morning line favorite in his final race before retiring to Taylor Made Stallions.

He added, “It's the same approach we took in the Breeders' Cup. We'll see how it goes. He's proven at a mile and an eighth and he does like the surface there. He likes the configuration of the racetrack there at Gulfstream–he proved that last year. We're just going to come out of there running and see what happens.”

Pletcher confirmed soon after the draw that he was pleased with Life Is Good's position in the gate. Reunited with Irad Ortiz Jr., the bay was installed the second choice on the morning line at 7-5.

“You've got two super talented horses with similar running styles, so it makes for a very exciting race,” said Pletcher. “It's going to be very exciting to see how the pace unfolds. Speed is our horse's weapon and we're not looking to take it away from him, and I'm sure the Knicks Go team knows what works for their horse. We'll just see how it plays out.”

Also in the field is 2019 GI Belmont S. winner Sir Winston (Awesome Again), victorious in the GIII Valedictory S. at Woodbine Dec. 3. The Tracy Farmer-owned 6-year-old drew post 6 and will be accompanied by Edwin Gonzalez. He is 12-1 on the morning line.

“He needs a lot of things to go his way,” said trainer Mark Casse. “He's feeling really well, and we believe he deserves a chance.”

It's All About the Turf..

As is the case in the day's big race, the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational also features a returning Pegasus champion. Hoping to defend his Turf title is Robert and Lawana Low's Colonel Liam (Liam's Map), who will be breaking from post 6 after being installed the 3-1 early choice. The dual Grade I winner hasn't been seen since finishing eighth in the GI Manhattan S. last June. Prior to that effort, the grey won the GI Turf Classic at Churchill Downs in May.

“I think over the years we've done pretty well in layoff situations, so I think it was important that we got the works into him that we did and we were fortunate enough that everything went according to the way we mapped it out,” explained Pletcher. “So, I feel good about that. You never know if they're going to be quite as sharp off a layoff, but he's certainly trained well enough and has run well fresh before. Hopefully, we can get the same type of effort. He's given us every indication that he's come up to it as good as ever.”

The 5-year-old will be ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr.

Pletcher is also represented by Repole Stable's Never Surprised (Constitution), who drew less favorably than his barn mate in post 12. Scheduled to be ridden by Luis Saez, he is the 7-2 second choice on the morning line.

“That's not really an ideal post for him,” Pletcher admitted.

The 4-year-old won his last two stakes starts over a mile and a sixteenth, including the most recent in the Tropical Park Derby Dec. 26.

Aiming for another PWC Turf title, trainer Mike Maker returns heavily armed this year with a quartet of Turf contenders: Atone (Into Mischief) (post 2), Flavius (War Front) (post 3), Field Pass (Lemon Drop Kid) (post 9) and Cross Border (English Channel) (post 11). Maker won the 2020 Pegasus Turf with Zulu Alpha before finishing third last year with Cross Border.

New to the series this year, the GI Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf Invitational offers up a competitive group, including a pair of top-shelf winners–GI Natalma S. heroine Lady Speightspeare (Speightstown), who exits post 3 (8-1) and early 2-1 favorite Regal Glory (Animal Kingdom), who will break from the 4 hole. Trained by Chad Brown on behalf of Peter Brant, the latter broke through at the highest level in her latest start in the GI Matriarch S. at Del Mar Nov. 28.

Also in the fray is Sweet Melania (American Pharoah), victorious in Gulfstream's GIII Suwanee River S. in her latest start. From the same connections as Pegasus World Cup contender Life Is Good, the chestnut, who is 5-1 on the morning line, drew the rail and will be accompanied by Luis Saez.

Representing long-time Fort Lauderdale resident Chris Pallas is Shifty She (Gone Astray), who was second most recently in the Suwanee River. The Florida-bred won three of four starts as a 3-year-old in 2019 before going to the sidelines with a tendon injury. Since her return in April with new trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., she won three of seven starts, including Belmont's GIII Noble Damsel S. Oct. 23. Listed at 6-1 on the morning line, she breaks from post 9.

“I was numb for three days after [the Noble Damsel],” said Pallas. “It was amazing. She had two really sharp works [at Gulfstream] and when you're an owner and you can come and watch the workouts, you learn a lot more about your horse than at a race. I knew she was ready to run..She ran them off their feet. She just did her thing.”

Trainer Michael McCarthy will saddle Nicest (Ire) (American Pharoah), who exits post 7 under Tyler Gaffalione. Listed as 6-1 on the morning line, she was third behind the ill-fated Snowfall in the G1 Juddmonte Irish Oaks and G2 Ribblesdale S. at Royal Ascot before arriving stateside. In her most recent start, she was second in the off-the-turf GI American Oaks at Santa Anita Dec. 26.

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