The reconfigured racing and auction calendar has allowed freshman sires to emerge simultaneously as leaders on the racetrack and in the auction ring, and the two stallions who have best grasped the opportunity in the early stages of 2020 are Not This Time and Speightster.
Both sires are already off the mark with their first winners, and they each stepped out on the commercial stage to have seven-figure juveniles from their respective first crops at the Ocala Breeders' Sales Co. Spring 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
Not This Time, a Grade 3-winning son of Giant's Causeway, had the sale-topper when Gary Young signed on a filly for $1.35 million. Speightster, a Grade 3 winner by Speightstown, jumped in during the auction's final offerings when Christina Jelm, bidding on behalf of Larry Best's OXO Equine, bought a colt for $1.1 million.
Not This Time and Speightster became the 19th and 20th North American stallions to knock down a seven-figure offering in their first crops of 2-year-olds since 2000, joining a group that also includes Hennessy, Stormy Atlantic, Sea of Secrets, Stephen Got Even, Fusaichi Pegasus, Dixie Union, Tiznow, Songandaprayer, Exchange Rate, Red Bullet, Johannesburg, Vindication, Mineshaft, Speightstown, Big Brown, Orb, Liam's Map, and American Pharoah.
However, getting over the million-dollar mark in that initial crop is no guarantee of short-term or long-term success at stud, with each member of the club's lot in life varying wildly from their common flashpoint.
For this analysis, we'll take a look at how the first 18 sires in the club – the “Group of 18,” for simplicity's sake – progressed at three different key points in their careers.
First, we'll see how their seven-figure auction horse fared to gauge immediate success. Then, we'll see how each stallion ranked among their respective freshman sire classes. Finally, we'll take a look at the big picture, and see how the group has performed throughout the course of their stallion careers.
In The Short Term – The Seven-Figure Sale Grads
The pressure on a seven-figure juvenile to perform on the racetrack is intense enough without adding the magnifying glass of having to help prove his or her freshman sire's credentials, to boot. No single runner can define a stallion's resume, but a seven-figure auction grad naturally becomes a billboard for what the market deems as the best that stallion has to offer.
None of the first-crop seven-figure juveniles by the “Group of 18” successfully paid for themselves on the racetrack, and their average earnings are just over $200,000. However, several of them carved out solid resumes in competition, which led to successful careers in the breeding shed.
The two gold standards in this regard are Munnings, the first seven-figure juvenile for Speightstown; and Harmony Lodge, who carried the banner for Hennessy.
After breezing an eighth in :10 flat at the 2008 Fasig-Tipton Calder Selected 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale, Munnings sold to the Coolmore partnership for $1.7 million, the second-highest price of the sale. He'd go on to make $742,640 at the races, highlighted by victories in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens Stakes, Tom Fool Handicap, and Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes. He now resides at Ashford Stud in Versailles, Ky., where he nears a decade of service as one of the farm's most reliable stallions.
Harmony Lodge sold to Eugene Melnyk for $1.65 million at the 2000 Fasig-Tipton Calder Sale, and she'd go on to earn more than any other horse in the seven-figure freshman juveniles club, at $851,120. Her five graded stakes wins over five seasons of racing include the Grade 1 Ballerina Handicap, making her the group's only Grade 1 winner. She then went on to become a highly productive broodmare, with her progeny to date including Grade 3 winner Stratford Hill and Grade 3-placed stakes winner Armistice Day.
The most active horse of the group was Maltese Tiger, from the first crop of WinStar Farm's Tiznow, who raced 34 times, primarily in the claiming ranks at Turf Paradise and Emerald Downs. He won 10 times and finished second in another 13 races to earn $95,017.
His is one of the more curious paths among the group. After bringing $1 million at the 2005 Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, Maltese Tiger debuted as a 5-year-old at Turf Paradise for a $30,000 claiming tag, and finished an unclaimed second. He'd run to age nine, and after finishing his career at Les Bois Park, he became a sport horse.
In total, seven of the millionaires by the incumbent “Group of 18” were graded stakes winners. Two are unraced, though Manilenyo, an American Pharoah colt secured by Coolmore for $1.65 million at last year's Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, is still in the midst of his 3-year-old season and has time to build his resume.
In The Mid-Term: The Freshman Sire Race
The performance of a sire's first crop in their 2-year-old season can define the trajectory of an entire stud career. A quick start can set a horse up for life, while a slow starter can lose the attention of mare owners, and potentially be moved to a secondary market by impatient farms.
With that in mind, the “Group of 18” finished all over the board in the freshman sire standings during their respective seasons, and where they finished in their rookie years was no guarantee of their long-term prospects.
For Not This Time and Speightster, the ideal roadmap for the remainder of the year probably looks like the one Johannesburg took in 2006.
Johannesburg saw La Traviata go to the Coolmore partnership for $1.1 million at that year's Fasig-Tipton Calder sale, and the filly was on the frontlines for her sire's near-sweep of the freshman standings. The stallion ended the year first among rookie sires by runners, winners, stakes winners, and graded stakes winners, and second by earnings, helped greatly by Scat Daddy's wins in the G1 Champagne Stakes and G2 Sanford Stakes. La Traviata contributed to the equation with a score in the G3 Victory Ride Stakes.
Johannesburg had seven total stakes winners in his freshman season, which was the most among the “Group of 18,” and one better than Fusaichi Pegasus. His three graded winners tied with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah for the most in the group, as well.
Among the “Group of 18,” if Johannesburg did not claim the top spot in a significant freshman category, he finished second to Ashford Stud's American Pharoah.
The son of Pioneerof the Nile became the second sire in the group to have a Breeders' Cup winner among his freshman-sired runners, when Four Wheel Drive took last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint. He joined Tiznow, who had Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies.
American Pharoah was part of a deep and diverse freshman class last year, but the fervor surrounding his historic Triple Crown win brought in a high volume of mares to his first book, and in turn put a high volume of runners on the track. He led the freshman class of 2019 by runners, winners, and earnings, and he was second by stakes winners (four) and graded winners (three).
Among the “Group of 18,” his 72 runners and 27 winners were the most in the club during their respective freshman seasons, and his progeny earnings of $2,703,916 was nearly $1 million ahead of second-place Johannesburg.
Also of note, Tiznow was the only group member with an Eclipse Award winner in his freshman season, with Breeders' Cup winner Folklore also taking home champion 2-year-old filly honors.
What's especially interesting about this snapshot of the group is who performed poorly.
Mineshaft entered stud at Lane's End in 2004 off a Horse of the Year campaign a season earlier, and the commercial interest made itself clear when B. Wayne Hughes went to $1.75 million for Patricia's Gem at 2007 Keeneland April 2-Year-Olds In Training Sale.
However, Mineshaft mustered just nine winners from his freshman crop, ranking him 25th in his class. His runners made $311,830, good for 17th. He had one overall stakes winner, and no graded winners. Patricia's Gem went on to become a Grade 1-placed runner in later seasons, but she was winless at two.
Stephen Got Even, who also stood at Lane's End, also failed to get off the mark early after Dubai Dreamer sold to Godolphin for $3.1 million at the 2004 Calder sale. He finished his first year with seven winners (32nd in his freshman class), no stakes winners, and $317,857 in progeny earnings (26th among freshmen and second-least among the “Group of 18”).
As will be seen in the next section, Lane's End was rewarded for its patience with both stallions after their first youngsters didn't keep pace with the lofty juvenile sale prices. Stephen Got Even stood 15 seasons at Lane's End until his pensioning at the end of 2015, and he is buried on the farm. Mineshaft is wrapping up his 17th season at stud, and has become a prolific source for classic runners.
In The Long-Term: The Full Career
The most important question for any sire that starts fast in the commercial arena is whether they can sustain that early momentum over the course of their stud career. Like the first two touchstones, there is no clear-cut trail among the “Group of 18,” but the outcomes are generally more positive than negative.
The stallion with arguably the most complete resume after getting a seven-figure juvenile at auction from his first crop is Tiznow.
Not only is the son of Cee's Tizzy the only member of the “Group of 18” to chalk up both an Eclipse Award winner (Folklore) and a classic winner (Da'Tara in the 2008 Belmont Stakes), he leads all sires in the group by progeny starts in Triple Crown races (14) and his two Breeders' Cup victories (Folklore in the 2005 Juvenile Fillies and Tourist in the 2016 Mile) ties him for first with Speightstown and Stormy Atlantic.
Speightstown, a fellow WinStar Farm resident, has also fared well in his stud career, leading this group by Breeders' Cup starts by a wide margin, with 32, including 2016 Dirt Mile winner Tamarkuz and 2019 Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing. He also leads the group by earnings with $111,713,652, which is especially impressive considering the stallion has never had a starter in a Triple Crown race.
After a quiet start in his freshman season, Mineshaft has compiled one of the more impressive resumes in the group, especially in regards to classic starts. The 12 appearances by Mineshaft offspring ranks him a close second behind Tiznow, and he is one of just seven in the group with a Breeders' Cup winner.
Vindication, Dixie Union, and Hennessy saw their careers cut short by early deaths. Dixie Union in particular made the most of his abbreviated time at stud, with 2012 Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags making his sire one of just two in the group with a U.S. classic winner.
Four sires have gotten Eclipse Award winners, and fittingly, three of them were for 2-year-olds. In addition to Folklore bringing home the hardware for Tiznow, Johannesburg snagged champion juvenile male honors for Hennessy in 2001, and Stevie Wonderboy earned the same title for Stephen Got Even in 2005. Stormy Atlantic is the outlier in the group, with Stormy Liberal winning the champion turf male title in 2018.
Two sires in the “Group of 18” sired future group members themselves. Hennessy is the sire of champion juvenile Johannesburg, while Speightstown brought in the 20th member, Speightster.
The Kentucky stallion market can be quick to relocate a stallion if they underperform, but this group has done an admirable job sticking around. As the 2020 breeding season draws to a close, 11 of the 18 veteran members have spent their entire Northern Hemisphere stallion careers in Kentucky. Meanwhile, Stormy Atlantic and Exchange Rate moved to Kentucky early in their stud careers, after their first crops started fast when they were Florida residents.
On the other side of the coin, the title for the least successful member of the “Group of 18” by lifetime achievement likely falls to Sea of Secrets.
The stallion gained plenty of buzz when his colt Diamond Fury sold for a then-world record $2.7 million at the 2003 Barretts March Sale, but Sea of Secrets never found his footing at the highest level of competition. After standing his first five seasons at Walmac Farm in Lexington, Ky., he was moved to California, where he remained for the rest of his career.
Though he became a respectable sire in his new home state, Sea of Secrets' three graded stakes winners was the least among the group members with 10 or more crops of racing age, and American Pharoah matched the feat in his freshman season alone.
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