Lecomte Stakes | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Regular Guy With Fancy Pedigree Ready To Excel

A field of 11 is entered to run in the Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes, the stepping stone to the Risen Star Stakes and to the Louisiana Derby, all run at Fair Grounds on the “Road to the Kentucky Derby.” As is usually the case for newly turned 3-year-olds in early Kentucky Derby prep races, few have run in stakes at this point in their careers. Of those with stakes credentials, Midnight Bourbon might be most notable as he finished second in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes last September then third in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes in October. Game Day Play won the Clever Trevor Stakes in October and is trying two turns for the first time. Red N Wild missed by a head in the Clever Trevor then two races later was third, beaten nine lengths, in the Remington Springboard Mile Stakes.

Arabian Prince is another who has made a mark in stakes races, albeit a small one, when finishing third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at the end of November. Lastly among those with stakes experience, Dyn O Mite finished fifth in the Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes and Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity last summer as a maiden. He has won two races in a row since then.

Among the horses which are stepping into the stakes ranks for the first time are Beep Beep, Manor House, Regular Guy and Santa Cruiser, who exit maiden races all won in visually impressive fashion. Mandaloun and Proxy earned wins in their most recent starts in first level allowance races.

I'm going to start my list of horses I think can win the Lecomte Stakes with Regular Guy. This colt didn't run well at all in his first two starts, both sprints and both last summer, finishing ninth then sixth. Given two months off to mature and stretching out to a mile, Regular Guy finished second behind Santa Cruiser (who is also entered here) and earned a stellar 96 Equibase Speed Figure, which is the second best figure earned by any horse in this field. Making his first start at Fair Grounds and first start around two-turns four weeks ago, Regular Guy didn't run as fast but he won fairly easily in a field of nine.

Besides logical improvement in his second two-turn race and second at the meeting, Regular Guy also put in a very strong five furlong workout in 100.4 which was the third best of 37 on the day and that total likely included a number of older and more seasoned horses. Even better, Regular Guy has the breeding to be something special as a STATS Race Lens pedigree query yields his dam (the Unbridled's Song mare Rebridled Dreams) has produced two exceptional 3-year-olds in her short breeding career. One was Farrell, who earned over $1 million and won the 2017 Fair Grounds Oaks, and the other was Carpe Diem, winner of $1.5 million including the Tampa Bay Derby and Blue Grass Stakes in 2014. As such, I expect Regular Guy to take a big step forward just as his siblings did during their 3-year-old campaigns and post the upset win in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

Santa Cruiser hasn't been seen since winning at a mile in November and beating Regular Guy by a length and one-half. That effort earned a 98 Equibase figure, which is the best earned by any horse in the field. I don't think the time off is of any concern particularly as Santa Cruiser has put in three straight workouts at Fair Grounds in preparation for this race. Trainer Keith Desormeaux (who also saddles Dyn O Mite) has had his share of success on the “Road to the Derby,” sometimes at high odds (Sonneteer at 99/1 in the 2017 Rebel Stakes). Therefore if Desormeaux thinks Santa Cruiser is ready for this level of competition, as well as if I think Regular Guy is a contender – as he was beaten by Santa Cruiser the only time they met, then improved to win – I must give Santa Cruiser a strong look as a contender in this race.

Mandaloun is two-for-two in his career to date, winning with a nice rally from ninth in his debut in October then improving to win a first level allowance race at seven furlongs in late November. Improving to a 94 figure with that win, the third best figure in the field, Mandaloun is on a pattern for even better in the Lecomte, provided he runs as well in his first route. That shouldn't be an issue as a son of Into Mischief, who has produced some top 3-year-olds in recent years including Authentic, Audible and Owendale. Trainer Brad Cox is already off to a sparkling start at the Fair Grounds meeting, winning 24% (13 of 55) races through last weekend, and jockey Florent Geroux rides Mandaloun again after being aboard for his first two wins.

Midnight Bourbon, like Santa Cruiser, has “Road to the Derby” breeding to go along with stakes quality form. His dam, the Malibu Moon mare Catch the Moon, produced 2015 Iroquois Stakes winner Cocked and Loaded as well as one of the top 3-year-olds in 2017, Girvin, who won the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby leading to $1.6 million in career earnings. Midnight Bourbon finished second in last year's Iroquois Stakes after making the lead and opening up with an eighth of a mile to go, earning a 91 figure which, if improved upon, is definitely competitive with the main contenders. Getting the ground saving rail and moving to trainer Asmussen's number one jockey in Ricardo Santana Jr. for the first time, Midnight Bourbon absolutely rounds out a strong quartet of win contenders in the Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the Lecomte Stakes field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures: Arabian Prince (87), Beep Beep (91), Dyn O Mite (84), Game Day Play (80), Manor House (87), Proxy (85) and Red N Wild (91).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Regular Guy
Santa Cruiser
Mandaloun
Midnight Bourbon

$200,000 Lecomte Stakes – Grade 3
Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 16, 2021 – 13th Race. Post Time 6:49 PM E.T.
Three Year Olds

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America’s Day at the Race Returns Saturday

America’s Day at the Races returns Saturday in what will be the first of 22 days of the telecast to air throughout January, February and March on FOX Sports. It will air on FS1 from 6 p.m. to 7 p.m. and will feature live racing from Fair Grounds, including the GIII Lecomte S. and Silverbulletday S.

Presented in 2021 by America’s Best Racing and Claiborne Farm, the telecasts will feature live racing from the Aqueduct winter meet as well as partner tracks, including Fair Grounds Race Course, Oaklawn Park, Tampa Bay Downs and others. NYRA will announce the complete spring schedule for America’s Day at the Races later in 2021.

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‘Always Felt He Was Cut Out To Be A Two-Turn Horse’: Mandaloun To Stretch Out In Grade 3 Lecomte

The calendar has turned. The distances have increased. An extra turn has been added. The acid test beckons. Eleven 3-year-olds—including the undefeated Mandaloun—will assemble for Saturday's Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots in the hopes of proving their mettle not only locally, but on the national scene as well, as thoughts turn to the first Saturday in May and the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve.

The sorting out process begins in the 1 1/16-mile Lecomte, which will offer 17 qualifying points for the Derby (10-4-2-1), and should prove a key stepping-stone to the local March 20 TwinSpires Louisiana Derby (G2) as well.

The Lecomte will be run as the final event on a 13-race “Road to Derby Kickoff Day” card. Five other stakes, including the Silverbulletday for 3-year-old filles, will be contested on a program jam-packed with quality. First post will be at noon CT, one hour earlier than usual.

Juddmonte Farms' homebred Mandaloun has done little wrong in two successful starts for trainer Brad Cox, as he won on debut going six furlongs at Keeneland in October and in an optional-claimer going 7 furlongs Nov. 28 at Churchill Downs. Sent off as the even-money favorite in both races, the son of Into Mischief has displayed versatility, closing from eighth early on debut at Keeneland, then stalking the pace and pouncing from fourth before drawing off at Churchill. Cox has long been looking forward to stretching Mandaloun our around two turns, where he thinks he'll shine even more brightly.

“He's trained very well at Fair Grounds since we got here,” Cox said. “We've always felt he was cut out to be a two-turn horse based on his physical make-up and how he trains. It shows how much talent he's got to be able to win his first two races at sprint distances and now we're going to do what we've thought he's wanted to do all along, and that's go long.”

West Point Thoroughbreds and William Sandbrook's Arabian Prince (post 2 at 6-1 with Brian Hernandez Jr.) ended his freshman season with a strong third carded a race after Mandaloun's allowance win in Churchill's Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The son of Mshawish won on debut there in September for trainer Dallas Stewart and was fourth in their Street Sense before earning some black type in his third career start. Stewart and West Point teamed up with Commanding Curve, who ran third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) here in 2014, and they are looking to embark down that path with Arabian Prince.

“He's a beautiful horse and this is the next step, so we'll see how he fits,” Stewart said. “He's improved every time out, it's the progression of it, and we're hoping for another progression Saturday. We'd like to save some ground and use the long stretch to our advantage. He'll come running late.”

Godolphin's homebred Proxy (post 4 at 6-1 with Mitchell Murrill) starts with a home court edge, as he's already won twice at the meet for trainer Mike Stidham. A beautifully bred son of Tapit is out of two-time G1 winner Panty Raid, Proxy has shown plenty of raw talent in winning two of three, but he faces by far the toughest test of his career in the Lecomte. In both wins, Proxy set a slow pace while being pressured on the lead before drawing off late, though Stidham very much admits he's still a work in progress.

“He's like a big, immature kid who is still learning with racing,” Stidham said. “Last time when he won, he was a little green about switching leads coming down the lane, but once he leveled off, he drew away at the end, so we were pleased with that. We were deciding whether to run him back in this race or wait for a race like the Risen Star. We felt like he's a big, healthy, strong colt and we thought the experience of running would do him more good than working three of four more times waiting for the Risen Star.”

Stidham could also run Newtown Anner Stud's Manor House, who is cross-entered in an optional-claimer (Race 8), but would bring plenty of intrigue if he runs in the Lecomte. The son of Upstart wired the field by 12 ¼ lengths on debut Dec. 12 at Laurel Park going a one-turn mile and he would be a major pace player, and quite possibly more, should he tackle stakes company on Saturday. Still, Stidham knows the best is yet to come, regardless where Manor House shows up next.

“This is just the beginning for him,” Stidham said. “He did everything right breaking his maiden, but he needs to take the next step and run well against winners for us to be confident moving forward with him.”

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon (post 1 at 7-2 with Ricardo Santana, Jr.) was twice stakes-placed at 2 for trainer Steve Asmussen and he should like getting back to two turns. The son of Tiznow aired in his second start going two turns at Ellis Park in August then was ran in a pair of one-turn miles stakes, when second in Churchill's Iroquois (G3) in September and third in Belmont Park's Champagne (G1) on October 10. Midnight Bourbon drew the rail and he has an enviable blend of tactical speed and stamina that should serve him well in his local bow.

Completing the Lecomte field from the rail out: Marylou Whitney Stables' homebred Beep Beep (post 3 at 12-1 with Joe Talamo), a debut winner Nov. 29 at Churchill for trainer Norm Casse who is also entered in Race 8; Coffeepot Stables' homebred Regular Guy (post 5 at 10-1 with Miguel Mena), a Dec. 19 track and distance MSW winner for trainer Wayne Catalano; Tom Durant's homebred Game Day Play (post 6 at 20-1 with Gabriel Saez), who won the Oct. 30 Clever Trevor at Remington Park for trainer Brett Calhoun; Calumet Farm's homebred Santa Cruiser (post 7 at 6-1 with James Graham), who broke his maiden on Nov. 15 at Churchill for trainer Keith Desormeaux; owner/trainer Terry Eoff's Red N Wild (post 8 at 20-1 with Declan Carroll), a distant third in the December 18 Springboard Mile at Remington; and Brad Allshouse's Dyn O Mite (post 11 at 30-1 with Colby Hernandez), who won an off-the-turf optional-claimer here on Dec. 4 for Desormeaux.

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Cox Pointing Mandaloun, Divine Comedy To Fair Grounds’ Road To The Derby Kickoff Day

Catch him if you can. From New Orleans to Hot Springs to Boynton Beach, trainer Brad Cox is logging plenty of frequent flier miles this winter while overseeing a stable that has him in contention to not only win him his first career Eclipse Award as Outstanding Trainer, but raise the bar even higher in 2021.

Front and center at Fair Grounds where he is the four-time defending training champion, Cox has Mandaloun and Divine Comedy pointing to a pair of stakes on the Jan. 16 “Road to the Derby Kickoff Day,” for what he hopes will be the start of the path to the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks (G1) and May 1 Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve (G1) later this spring at Churchill Downs.

Both Juddmonte Farms Inc.'s homebred Mandaloun and Godolphin LLC's homebred Divine Comedy figure to be among the favorites in their respective races on the 16th, with the former headlining the $200,000 Lecomte (G3) and the latter starring in the $150,000 Silverbulletday. Both races are important 10-4-2-1 points races for the Derby and Oaks, respectively, and will help shape the local landscape for the March 20 Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2).

Mandaloun, a 3-year-old son of Into Mischief, was visually impressive winning both starts in Kentucky at 2, though he's yet to go two turns or run past 7 furlongs. Cox is eagerly looking forward to giving him the chance, and expects even better when it comes.

“He's pretty good and I'm excited about him getting around two turns,” Cox said. “He's been very good in his first two but I think he's a two-turn horse and we're going to see what he's cut out to do. Knock on wood he'll have one more work this weekend and I'm excited about running him on the 16th.”

Divine Comedy, a 3-year-old daughter of Into Mischief, impressed breaking her maiden here going long Dec. 18 after running sixth sprinting on debut at Churchill. While she may not be as accomplished or as heralded at Mandaloun, she's another in a long line of potential Cox stars.

“Divine Comedy is doing well and came out of her race in good shape,” Cox said. “She had an easy maintenance half, her first work back, and we're excited to run her.”

Cox also left the door open to run Juddmonte's homebred Sun Path, a full sister to last year's Fair Grounds Oaks winner Bonnie South, in the Silverbulletday. The daughter of Munnings is 2-for-3, including a local allowance win the same day Divine Comedy broke her maiden.

Along with his Fair Grounds string, Cox has runners stabled in Hot Springs, Arkansas for his Oaklawn Park division and Palm Meadows in Boynton Beach, Florida for his Gulfstream Park contingent. Fair Grounds Media caught up with him Wednesday morning to look back on a 2020 season that sees him on the short list of Eclipse Award candidates, as well as look towards 2021, where he's beginning to plot out the paths of his top horses.

“When I started this, I had dreams of winning an Eclipse,” Cox said. “There are three things that I said I would like to do in this industry, and that's win an Eclipse Award, do enough to earn a trip to the Hall of Fame, and win the Kentucky Derby. And I've yet to do any of them. So, I've continued to work hard, try to find good horses, place them properly, and manage them right. I'm very fortunate to have great owners, a great staff, and great horses and we've had a very good 2020.”

Updates on other big-name runners from Brad Cox's barn are below:

Godolphin LLC's homebred Essential Quality, who won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, is odds-on to win the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old, and is atop many Derby Future Book lists):

“He's a good colt and his work this weekend (4 furlongs in 48.80 Jan. 3 at Fair Grounds), just 'wow,' just phenomenal,” Cox said. “We didn't give him time off but we backed off on him and he seems to have responded well. He was really good this past weekend and we just need to keep him that way until the middle of February. The Risen Star (G2, Feb. 13 at Fair Grounds) is on the table, as is the Southwest (G3, Feb. 15 at Oaklawn). The one thing about the Fair Grounds race is it's a lot more points (50-20-10-5), so that makes it a little more attractive. But the distance is the question; do we want to go a mile and an eighth off not having a race in three months? We'll talk it over with the Godolphin team and make a decision probably about the 1st of February. If he goes to the Southwest, I'm 99% sure that he would go back to Fair Grounds, and the Louisiana Derby would be in play after that.”

Michael Dubb, Monomoy Stables LLC, The Elkstone Group LLC, and Bethlehem Stables LLC's Monomoy Girl, who won her second Breeders' Cup Distaff in November and will earn her second Eclipse Award later this month:

“The Bayakoa (G3) on (February) the 15th (at Oaklawn) is the plan right now for her,” Cox said. “She seems to have picked up where she left off last year. Her work this weekend (4 furlongs in 48.80 Jan. 3 at Fair Grounds) was really, really good and I feel like we're ahead of schedule as far as where we need to be with her. We never took her out of training, so it's not like she lost a bunch of fitness, but her work was really, really good.”

Clint Gasaway, Lance Gasaway, Madaket Stables LLC, and Wonder Stables' Wells Bayou, who won the Louisiana Derby in March but hasn't raced since running fifth in the Arkansas Derby (G1) in May:

“(He's had 10 workouts since the middle of October) and we have a couple of options, including the Louisiana (G3 at Fair Grounds Jan. 16) and the Fifth Season (Jan. 23) at Oaklawn as well.”

OXO Equine LLC's Travel Column, who ended her 2-year-old campaign with an eye-catching win in Churchill's Golden Rod (G2):

“She's really good and she's doing really well right now,” Cox said. “Her work the other day (4 furlongs in :50 Jan. 3 at Fair Grounds) was a little slow but it was more because her workmate broke off a little slow but the rider on her did exactly what he was instructed to do and she'll pick it up and start going a little quicker and further in the future and right now we are pointing for (Fair Grounds' Feb. 13) Rachel Alexandra (G2).”

Korea Racing Authority's Knicks Go, who won the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in November:

“We're thinking about the Louisiana but we're pretty sure we'll end up going in the Pegasus (G1 at Gulfstream Jan. 23),” Cox said. “I told the owners I could go either way, and they thought maybe we'll wait one more week and give it a shot there and see how it goes. Then we could maybe look at the Saudi ($20 million G1 Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse Feb. 20) race as well. We'll get the first one out of the way and then go from there. I don't think further distances will be an issue for him at all. He's doing well, he's a grade 1 race horse, and that work (at Fair Grounds Jan. 2), three quarters in 1:13.00, that's fantastic and is moving on that race track.”

Michael Dubb, Madaket Stables LLC, Peter Deutsch, Michael Kisber, The Elkstone Group LLC, and Bethlehem Stables LLC's Aunt Pearl (IRE), who completed a 3-for-3 juvenile campaign with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf:

“She was given some time and there aren't a lot of options with the 3-year-old fillies on the grass early in the year,” Cox said. “One of our goals is possibly (Royal) Ascot (G1 Coronation in June) and maybe the Churchill race (Tepin Stakes) this summer to start her back.”

Shortleaf Stable LLC's homebred Caddo River, a 9 ½-length MSW winner at Churchill in November:

“He's doing really well and we're going to shoot for the Smarty Jones (Jan. 22 at Oaklawn),” Cox said.

Juddmonte Farms Inc.'s Prate, a 4 ¼-lengh debut winner here Dec. 19:

“I think his next start will be around one-turn,” Cox said. “I'm not saying we wouldn't eventually try two turns, but for the time being we'll keep him around one-turn. I don't have anything picked out for him right now and I want to give him plenty of time to recover from his first race. Since he's been at Fair Grounds he's settled in really well and is moving forward mentally.”

Shortleaf Stable Inc.'s The Sound, who's won two in a row in New York:

“We'll try a second-level allowance race with him around two turns at Oaklawn and hopefully he'll gradually make the progression to stakes company before the winter is over,” Cox said.

Kueber Racing LLC's Coach, who won Churchill's Rags to Riches at 2:

“She had a fantastic work (4 furlongs in a bullet 48.00 Jan. 4 at Oaklawn) and we really weren't expecting her to do as much as she did,” Cox said. “We're pointing her to the Marth Washington (Jan. 30 at Oaklawn).”

Rupp Racing's Gagetown, second sprinting in the local Dec. 19 Sugar Bowl:

“We're pointing him to an allowance race (at Fair Grounds) on the 16th (of January) going long,” Cox said. “It will be his introduction to two turns. We think he should handle it but you don't now until you try.”

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