Lecomte Stakes | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Epicenter The One To Beat In Lecomte

Saturday's Grade 3, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes showcases nine recently turned 3-year-olds and is the first of a local three-race prep series at the Fair Grounds on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. Depending on how some of these horses progress, they could be seen in the Risen Star Stakes four weeks from now on Feb. 19, and then hopefully in the Louisiana Derby on March 26.

Leading the Lecomte field is Epicenter, winner of the Gun Runner Stakes on Dec. 26, a newly anointed Road to the Derby race in which he earned 10 points, which could be significant later in the season. Pappacap is notable not because of his two runner-up efforts last fall but because those efforts came against unbeaten and untested Corniche in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Unified Report is unbeaten in three races but gets a test on two levels here as his wins in the Louisiana Legacy Stakes and Louisiana Juvenile Stakes were against Louisiana-breds and were sprint races; he will be tackling two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte. Trafalgar is an up-and-coming horse who has won two in a row including a race at the distance of the Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Cyberknife also won his most recent start at this distance and over the track, but it was a maiden race so he is stepping way up in class.

Presidential was impressive when winning by seven and three-quarter lengths in his second career start, but it was nearly five months ago so he could be a bit short of ready for this caliber of field. Blue Kentucky finished third in the Sugar Bowl Stakes near the end of December and he too is trying two turns for the first time. Surfer Dude finished third behind Epicenter in the Gun Runner Stakes after leading for the first six furlongs so will be trying to improve, while Call Me Midnight was last seen finishing seventh of 11 in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes near the end of November.

Analysis:

Epicenter improved markedly last November in his second career start when stretching out to a mile (around one turn) for the first time and controlling the tempo from start to finish to beat nine other horses rather easily by 3 1/2 lengths. Moving way up in class from the maiden ranks to run in the inaugural Gun Runner Stakes, and in his first try around two-turns, Epicenter improved again to a career-best 98 ™ Equibase Speed Figure while cruising to a 6 1/2-length win in “ridden out” fashion. Those two figures offer this colt a “double advantage” over the other eight entrants, as the lower of the two is higher than the higher of the last two figures of any of the other horses. Historically these types of horses have a high probability to win. Considering the win was at Fair Grounds and at the distance of the Lecomte and Epicenter is making only his fourth career start and second around two-turns, this colt is the one to beat in the Lecomte.

Trafalgar shows a similar pattern to Epicenter, except he hasn't run in a stakes race yet. Trafalgar finished second in his debut last summer at the same seven furlong distance that Epicenter finished sixth in his debut. In his second career start, also in a one-turn mile last fall, Trafalgar improved markedly, rallying from ninth of 10 to draw off late and earn a career-best figure, in this case an 88. Now this is where the two colts' paths diverge. Trafalgar took two months off and ran in an allowance race at Fair Grounds on Dec. 2, instead of a stakes race as Epicenter did. Although only winning by a head, and although the figure was lower at 82 then in his previous race, Trafalgar showed a lot of mental toughness in victory which may benefit him in the Lecomte. This is because after stalking in second and taking the lead to draw away in the stretch by 1 1/2 lengths, Trafalgar was challenged in the final yards but held his ground to emerge victorious by a head. Making his second start off the layoff, second over the Fair Grounds surface and second at this distance, Trafalgar draws one position inside Epicenter in the gate, and if in the final yards these two colts are neck-and-neck, Trafalgar may have the mental talent to post the mild upset and win.

Pappacap began his career last spring and summer in sensational fashion, breaking his maiden easily by almost three lengths then winning the Best Pal Stake by nearly five lengths. After a mediocre fourth place finish in the Del Mar Futurity last summer, trainer Mark Casse did not give up on Pappacap and entered him in a two-turn race for the first time in the American Pharoah Stakes. In that race he ran into Corniche, who had just galloped in his maiden win and was the prohibitive favorite. Even with Corniche rolling all alone on the front end, Pappacap stayed as close as he could and held second at 13 to 1 odds. Five weeks later in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, once again Pappacap faced Corniche and while that one rolled wire-to-wire on top as the heavy favorite, Pappacap finished second of 11 in a fine effort, earning a career-best 95 figure in the process. It might be a tougher task to run as well off nearly three months away from the races as compared to Epicenter and Trafalgar, but if Pappacap is fit to run as well as he did in his last race off workouts alone he should be a strong factor in this year's Lecomte Stakes.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Blue Kentucky (94 in sprints), Call Me Midnight (89), Cyberknife (91), Presidential (79), Surfer Dude (92 sprinting) and Unified Report (90 sprinting).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Epicenter
Trafalgar
Pappacap

Lecomte Stakes
Race 14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, January 22, 2022 – Post Time 7:20 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Sixteenth
Three Year Olds
Purse: $200,000

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Lecomte Runners Rematch in Risen Star

The top four finishers from the GIII Lecomte S. Jan. 16 take their next steps down the GI Kentucky Derby trail Saturday in the GII Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. A $525,000 KEESEP buy, Lecomte winner Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) was second in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill in September and was third in Belmont's GI Champagne S. in October. The bay took the field wire-to-wire in the Lecomte, besting Proxy (Tapit) by a length.

“I think the distance is right in his wheelhouse and we're excited about running him in this series because of the distance of these preps,” said trainer Steve Asmussen. “He's an efficient mover with a high cruising speed and horses like that can be very effective at Fair Grounds. We were very pleased with how he started off the year and this is the next step.”

A second-out graduate here in November, Proxy captured a 1 1/16-mile allowance in NOLA Dec. 19 prior to the Lecomte. Juddmonte homebred Mandaloun (Into Mischief) opened his account with a pair of wins, debuting at Keeneland in October and then at Churchill Nov. 28. Prepping for this with a best-of-35 five panels here Feb. 6, the bay adds blinkers for this event. Lecomte fourth-place finisher Santa Cruiser (Dialed In) broke his maiden at third asking at Churchill Nov. 15 before taking the leap to graded company.

'TDN Rising Star' Carillo (Union Rags) looks to make yet another headline if he pulls off the upset here. The bay was quite impressive when capturing his career bow at Aqueduct Jan. 8 for the estate of his late breeder Paul Pompa and trainer Chad Brown. The bay topped the Keeneland January sale days later, selling to bloodstock agent Lauren Carlisle for $875,000, and was sent to Tom Amoss. He makes his first start for Amoss and new owners Greg Tramontin, Joel Politi, Brittlyn Stable and Asaro Enterprises in the Risen Star.

“He trains like he ran and shows a great deal of stamina in the mornings and in his workouts,” Amoss said. “He shows a very good turn of foot at the end. The horse is pretty straightforward since I've gotten him. He needs to show he can make the transition from one to two turns but he's not the only horse like that at this time of year. All things point to that being something he's going to successfully do but he hasn't done it at this point.”

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Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card: Midnight Bourbon Aging Well

One Kentucky Derby qualifying points race was held over the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend, but there were a couple of other races worth looking at.

The points race was the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La., a 1 1/16-mile contest offering 17 Derby points to the top four finishers (10-4-2-1). While no winners of the Lecomte have gone on to capture the G1 Kentucky Derby, there are some notable successes in the not-too-distant past, including G1 Preakness winners War of Will (2019) and Oxbow (2013). Going back a few more years to 2007, you'll find Derby runner-up Hard Spun on the Lecomte winner's roster.

Tampa Bay Downs ran the Pasco Stakes, a starting point for the Oldsmar, Fla., track's Derby qualifying points races: the Feb. 6 Sam F. Davis (17 points) and March 6 Tampa Bay Derby (85 points). The Pasco, run at seven furlongs, offered a $125,000 purse but no Derby points and has never produced a winner that had an impact on the Triple Crown.

Finally, California-breds were in the spotlight at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif., including 3-year-olds in the Cal Cup Derby. While this might not be a points race, let's remember that a Lucky Pulpit colt named California Chrome launched his 3-year-old championship campaign (including Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins) with a victory in the Cal Cup Derby.

As I wrote in my first 2021 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card, the following grades are entirely subjective and based on my personal “eyeball test,” Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form, historical significance of the race and perceived quality of fields. I don't employ an “easy” curve in my grading.

Jan. 16: Lecomte Stakes, 1 1/16 miles, Fair Grounds

Midnight Bourbon was second-choice in the wagering behind the Brad Cox-trained Into Mischief colt Mandaloun, the 4-5 favorite who came into the Lecomte undefeated in two starts: a six-furlong maiden win at Keeneland Oct. 24 and an allowance victory at Churchill Downs Nov. 28. Midnight Bourbon, trained by Steve Asmussen, chased the front-running (and likely distance challenged) Jackie's Warrior last time out when third in the G1 Champagne Stakes at a one-turn mile at Belmont Park Oct. 10. Michael Stidham-trained Proxy (by Tapit) won back-to-back maiden and allowance races around two turns in November and December at Fair Grounds after narrowly losing his debut at Monmouth Oct. 24. He was the 8-1 fifth choice in the betting.

Midnight Bourbon and Joe Talamo hold off Proxy and Mandaloun to win the Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds

All three come from serious racing and breeding operations: Midnight Bourbon is a Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred Tiznow colt; Mandaloun is a Juddmonte Farms homebred; and Proxy is a Godolphin homebred produced from the outstanding racemare Panty Raid, winner of the G1 Spinster at Keeneland.

Midnight Bourbon has the goods pedigree-wise, being a half brother to G3 Salvatore Mile winner Pirate's Punch (by Shanghai Bobby); G1 Haskell winner Girvin (by Tale of Ekati); and G3 Iroquois winner Cocked and Loaded (by Colonel John). Now pensioned Tiznow, the two-time G1 Breeders' Cup Classic winner, has been an outstanding sire. He was a late developer, not debuting until late April of his 3-year-old campaign and winding up the year as the champion 3-year-old male and 2000 Horse of the Year. It wouldn't be a stretch to think Midnight Bourbon will age well.

Joe Talamo, subbing for jockey Ricardo Santana Jr. aboard Midnight Bourbon, took it to his rivals early, outhustling Proxy and Mandaloun for the early lead and laying down 24 and change fractions all the way around the Fair Grounds oval and repelling bids from Proxy and a three-wide Mandaloun from the three-eighths pole to the wire, holding them at bay by one length. Trainer Cox said he might put blinkers on Mandaloun for his next start in the Risen Star, where he'll get a rematch with Midnight Bourbon.

The winner earned a 91 Beyer Speed Figure in the Lecomte, a significant improvement from his previous best Beyer, 80, when second to late-running Sittin On Go at Churchill Downs in the G3 Iroquois Sept. 5 after making a bold move to the lead on the turn for home.

Midnight Bourbon ran his final sixteenth in 6.32 seconds and the final five-sixteenths in 30.85 in his first true two-turn test (he broke his maiden going a mile on the peculiar Ellis Park layout where they start coming out of a chute on the clubhouse turn).

Grade: B

Jan. 16: Pasco Stakes, seven furlongs, Tampa Bay Downs

The Bill Mott-trained Union Rags colt Nova Rags jumped off the Daily Racing Form past performances page as the only 3-year-old in the eight-horse lineup to contest a graded stakes, finishing fourth in the G3 Nashua at Aqueduct on Nov. 8.

Nova Rags was made the 13-10 favorite and ran to his odds, winning by 2 ¾ lengths under Samy Camacho despite going very wide throughout (five wide going into the final turn). Nova Rags covered seven furlongs in 1:24.55 and earned a 75 Beyer Speed Figure, three ticks lower than a 78 Beyer in his debut maiden victory at Belmont Park Oct. 10.

Nova Rags draws off late under Samy Camacho to win the Pasco Stakes by 2 3/4 lengths

Out of a Smart Strike mare, the Michael Shanley homebred should improve with distance and Hall of Famer Mott is known for his patience with all of his horses. It's hard to take much from this race, especially when you go back and look at how soundly he was defeated in the Nashua, where he lost by 14 ¼ lengths without apparent excuse.

Grade: D

Jan. 16: California Cup Derby 1 1/16 miles, Santa Anita

Trainer David Hofmans added blinkers to Big Fish's equipment for this race restricted to California-bred or -sired horses after removing the hood two starts back. This a long-striding colt by the Dynaformer stallion Mr. Big who probably wasn't best suited when sent out for a 4 ½-furlong maiden test last June 19 in his debut, finishing second. After another sprint try on dirt where he finished third to Cal Cup Derby favorite Good With People, Hofmans moved Big Fish to turf, where he graduated against state-breds going one mile, then won the Del Mar Juvenile Turf Stakes against open company at the same distance.

Big Fish put in a big stretch run to win the California Cup Derby under Juan Hernandez

In the Cal Cup Derby, jockey Juan Hernandez allowed Big Fish to settle well behind the early leaders, commenced a drive around the three-eighths pole, saved ground into the stretch and ran down Good With People and Peter Miller stablemate None Above the Law. Big Fish won going away by 1 ½ lengths in a fairly pedestrian 1:46.37 for 1 1/16 miles, earning a 71 Beyer Speed Figure.

Hofmans now has options for the Legacy Ranch homebred, who comes from the same female family as Pasco winner Nova Rags. The fourth dam of Big Fish is Kaylem Ho, and Kaylem Ho is the second dam of Nova Rags. Kaylem Ho was a member of Mrs. Henry D. Paxson's excellent broodmare ban in the late 1970s in Pennsylvania.

Grade: C-

Coming up on Friday's opening-day card at Oaklawn is the Smarty Jones Stakes at a mile, with 17 Derby points offered. The following weekend, the Road to the Kentucky Derby gets more serious with the Jan. 30 Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream Park and Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita.

Previously: Jan. 3 Triple Crown Weekend Prep Report Card

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Fair Grounds: Midnight Bourbon, Mandaloun Expected To Point For Risen Star

Steve Asmussen's assistant trainer Scott Blasi reports that Saturday's Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner Midnight Bourbon came out of the race in fine order. Asmussen indicated following the win that the Winchell Thoroughbreds' 3-year-old son of Tiznow would be pointed to the $400,000 Risen Star (G2) at 1 1/8 miles on February 13 at Fair Grounds In New Orleans, La. Midnight Bourbon earned 10 Kentucky Derby points for his Lecomte win and is currently third in the standings with 16 points.

According to trainer Chris Block, Lothenbach's Stables' Silverbulletday Stakes winner Charlie's Penny also exited her Kentucky Oaks points race is excellent shape.

“So far everything looks good,” Block said. “She ate up last night and this morning, walked real well and she seems bright and not too knocked out. The next logical plan would be to point towards the Rachel Alexandra (G2, $300,000 at 1 1/16 miles on February 13 at Fair Grounds). What has pushed her forward is her mind and her determination. She's not a very big filly, king of average in size and a little bit on the narrow side, but all that is relative to what she can do herself. Yesterday she was helped by the (slow) pace, but so was everybody else, or so I would have thought. She rose to the occasion, now it's time to see if she can take the next step forward. It was really nice to win this race at Fair Grounds. My family used to send horses here for the winter with (the late) Richie Scherer, and management has been very kind to us.”

For her win, the Minnesota-bred daughter of Race Day earned ten points on the Road to the Kentucky Oaks.

Trainer Brad Cox reports that his pair of beaten favorites – Sun Path (fourth in the Silverbulletday) and Mandaloun (third in the Lecomte) – exited their respective races in good order. Sun Path will be given some time to regroup, while Mandaloun will likely get an equipment change next time out.

“I was super disappointed with the outcome of the Silverbulletday,” Cox admitted. “We don't see any physical issue with Sun Path. She appears to have come out of it well as of now. Obviously, we will back up a little bit. We won't run back in four weeks. We'll just try to train up to either the Honeybee (G3, March 6 at Oaklawn Park) or the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2, March 20). They would really be our only options moving forward. We need a little more time between races. She's going to be a little bit of a question mark until we run her again. She was doing so well leading up to this race (Silverbulletday).

“We still think he (Mandaloun) is a very good horse,” Cox said. “He raced wide around both turns. I thought it was a good experience. He showed up. He ran his race. I think we are going to add blinkers. I talked it over with the Juddmonte team and Florent (jockey Geroux). We kind of thought that ever since his first race. He came out it (Lecomte) so far so good. We will definitely look at coming back in the Risen Star.

“Gagetown raced well for his first time around two turns (second in a first level allowance earlier in the card),” Cox said. “Thought it was a good effort. Run was a little spotty. He was a little unsure of what was going on. It looked like he was going to be third, maybe even fourth, but he re-rallied and was actually running at the winner. He's still trying to figure it out. I wanted to get two sprints into him since he broke his maiden first time. I don't really think he's a 6-furlong horse, but I'm not so certain he's like a mile-and-an-eighth horse either. He's somewhere there in the middle.”

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