last judgment | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Grade 1, $3-million Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes is the biggest jewel on the crown of fantastic stakes races at Gulfstream Park this weekend in Hallandale Beach, Fla., bringing together a stellar field of 12. Leading the field in recent accomplishments is Knicks Go, last seen winning the G1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in the eye-opening time of 1:33.85.

Knicks Go has a running style in which he goes to the front and dares anyone to take him on in the early stages, so we know where he will be as soon as the gate opens in the Pegasus.

Code of Honor is an accomplished runner best known for winning the G1 Travers Stakes as a 3-year-old in 2019. Entering the race off a runner-up finish in the G1 Clark Stakes at the end of November, Code of Honor must be respected. Math Wizard earned his biggest win at the distance when taking the G1 Pennsylvania Derby as a 3-year-old in 2019 but is winless in seven races since.

Then there are a number of horses not yet proven capable of winning at the G1 level but who are in exceptional form. Sleepy Eyes Todd is one of those, having won the G2 Charles Town Classic at the distance in August of last year and most recently victorious over the track in the G3 Mr. Prospector Stakes.

Similarly, Last Judgment won the Sunshine Classic Stakes just one week ago at the distance and at Gulfstream Park. Harpers First Ride has won four of his last five including the G3 Pimlico Special in October and the Native Dancer Stakes at the end of 2020.

Mr Freeze finished second in the 2019 Pegasus and last fall won the G2 Fayette Stakes at the distance. Another strong contender is Jesus' Team, who closed from seventh to second behind Knicks Go in the Dirt Mile and who recently won the Claiming Crown Jewel Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

Tax enters the Pegasus World Cup off a win in the G3 Harlan's Holiday Stakes over the track last month. Similar to Code of Honor and Math Wizard he was a top 3-year-old in 2019, including a win in the G2 Jim Dandy Stakes. Kiss Today Goodbye earned the biggest win of his career last month in the G2 San Antonio Stakes and is yet another potentially on the brink of breaking through to this top level.

Independence Hall was a strong 2-year-old in the fall of 2019 and as a 3-year-old in the winter of 2020, winning the Jerome Stakes and finishing second in the G3 Sam F. Davis Stakes before taking time off. He most recently finished fifth in the G1 Malibu Stakes. Coastal Defense rounds out the field, coming into the race off a pair of non-threatening fourth place finishes in stakes.

Win contenders:
Knicks Go changed trainers to start his 2020 campaign, moving to the barn of Brad Cox, and went three-for-three last year, culminating with a career best 120 Equibase Speed Figure when winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in wire-to-wire fashion. He had lost 10 races in a row before the first of his 2020 wins, but the turnaround was not out of the clouds as Knicks Go had been a top 2-year-old in 2018, winning the G1 Breeders' Futurity with the same running style as all three wins last year. Improving from a 104 figure effort in February of last year, to 116 then to the 120 in the Breeders' Cup, and coming back off a 2 1/2-month rest it is highly likely Knicks Go will be fresh and able to easily establish the early lead he likes.

Horses which try to take on a front runner of his nature will likely find their chances compromised, and that makes Knicks Go the one to beat in this year's Pegasus World Cup Invitational. Furthermore, he's been working out steadily (every six to seven days) for his comeback and although he has never run the mile and one-eighth distance of the Pegasus, Knicks Go has the breeding to succeed at the trip as a son of Paynter, who finished second in the 2012 Belmont Stakes at the distance of 1 1/2 miles.

Last Judgment, Harpers First Ride and Sleepy Eyes Todd all must be considered contenders to win the Pegasus World Cup, although they have less probability to win than Knicks Go based on the likely pace scenario in this race in which Knicks Go controls the tempo from the start. Nevertheless, with all three likely to go to post at high odds, I would not hesitate to bet them.

I'll start with Last Judgment, who has won six of 14 races including his only try at the distance of this race. That win came in his most recent start just seven days ago when dominating in the Sunshine Classic Stakes by six lengths. That effort tied his career best 107 figure and he has won while racing on the lead or from off the pace so he could be finishing very well in this race.

Harpers First Ride is another horse who knows where the finish line is, having won 10 of 17 career starts. First or second in his last six races, including the Pimlico Special last fall at the distance of 1 3/16 miles, Harpers First Ride earned a career best 109 figure in winning the Native Dancer Stakes in his most recent race.

Sleepy Eyes Todd earned the biggest win of his career in the Charles Town Classic Stakes last August at the distance of the Pegasus. He ran poorly when shipped to California for the Awesome Again Stakes the next month but has won both starts since then, including the Mr. Prospector Stakes at Gulfstream. The 119 figure earned in the Charles Town Classic was a career best and the highest figure of any horse other than Knicks Go (120 in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile) has ever earned, so if he can repeat that effort Sleepy Eyes Todd could give Knicks Go a run for the winner's share of this $3 million purse.

The rest of the field, all who have the ability to compete effectively in this race, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Coastal Defense (108), Code of Honor (109), Jesus' Team (114), Kiss Today Goodbye (105), Independence Hall (108), Kiss Today Goodbye (107), Mr Freeze (106) and Math Wizard (107).

Win Contenders, in preference order:
Knicks Go
Last Judgment
Harpers First Ride
Sleepy Eyes Todd

Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes – Grade 1
Race 12 at Gulfstream Park
Saturday, January 23 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
1 1/8 Miles
Four Years Olds and Upward
Purse: $3 Million

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Michael Dubb, Steven Hornstock and Bethlehem Stables LLC and Nice Guys Stable's Last Judgment registered his first career stakes victory Saturday at Gulfstream Park, scoring a front-running 6 ½-length victory in the $75,000 Sunshine Classic at the Hallandale Beach, Fla., track.

The Sunshine Classic, a 1 1/8-mile stakes for 4-year-olds and up, was featured among three other stakes for Florida-bred horses, including the Sunshine Sprint, the Sunshine Turf and the Sunshine Filly & Mare Turf. All four stakes offered a $25,000 win-only bonus for starters that are nominated to the Florida Sire Stakes program.

Michael Maker-trained Last Judgment, in his prior start Dec. 19, finished eighth in the seven-furlong Mr. Prospector (G3) – the 5-year-old gelded son of Congrats' first start after being claimed $62,500 at Belmont Park.

“We knew he was a class horse. I followed this horse from the beginning of his career. When he was in for a tag in New York, I had two races in mind. I had this race and the Ocala races, which unfortunately were cancelled due to COVID, so at least we got this,” Dubb said. “He had previous form at Gulfstream, seemed like he liked the track, seemed versatile enough where anywhere from seven furlongs to a mile and an eighth would be in his wheelhouse. Mike Maker is excellent at stretching horses out, so it's nice when it all goes according to plan.”

Last Judgment ($7.80) was hustled to the lead by jockey Jose Ortiz after an alert break from the gate and assumed pacesetting duties around the first turn and along the backstretch, closely stalked by Red Crescent and Kaufy Bean past fractions of 23.84 and 47.57 seconds for the first half mile. While defending champion and 8-5 favorite Noble Drama trailed the field, Last Judgment continued to show the way entering the turn into the homestretch. Noble Drama launched an outside move on the far turn under Emisael Jaramillo to enter contention at the top of the stretch, but Last Judgment kicked away to a comfortable victory.

“He was coming off sprints when he's not able to be on the lead or near it. If he jumped well, I thought he could be near the lead because he's been sprinting,” Ortiz said. “After that he got the lead, he relaxed well. Mike had him prepared.”

Noble Drama held off Roman Empire by a neck to finish second.

Last Judgment ran 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.76.

“The horse was doing fabulous. We were expecting a better run than he had in the Mr. Prospector. He was stepping up in class, ran into trouble and had a strong gallop-out,” Maker said. “I was under the impression that he would appreciate more distance.”

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