Lane's End | Horse Racing Free Tips

Value Sires For 2024 Part 6: Reaching The Snowline

Now we're really entering nosebleed altitudes for most breeders, between $30,000 and $50,000: a zone where you should feel that you're improving the odds of coming up with an elite horse.

It tells you a lot about our business that the majority of the two dozen stallions operating at this level can only do so because they have yet to send a single runner into the starting gate. A quarter of these we immediately set to one side, as absolute beginners, because those received separate consideration in the opening instalment of this series. Of the remaining 18, another eight belong to those preceding intakes that remain untested by runners.

Some of these have been taking the precautionary clips often necessary to keep young sires in the game, as commercial breeders maintain as safe a distance as possible from the dangers that accompany racetrack exposure.

You can see that template magnified in one of the two sires who are closest to the moment of truth. AUTHENTIC started out in 2021 as the most expensive in his intake, at $75,000. This year he takes his third consecutive cut, down to $50,000 (from $60,000 and previously $70,000). Yet has he become any less likely to sire racehorses, if you send him a mare this spring, relative to when he retired as Horse of the Year? Far from it, if the market reception is any guide: he duly looked after investors by processing 91 yearlings (120 offered) at a median $235,000 (average $286,076), clear at the top of the class.

Authentic | Sarah Andrew

We all know how the system works. But if you genuinely thought Authentic good value at $75,000, well, you'd better get right back to him now that his fee is down by one-third. After all, a true commercial opportunist should be anticipating a rising tide from all the juvenile winners that will surely be emerging from a debut book of 229 mares, just a couple short of making him the busiest stallion in North America that year!

Of course, Spendthrift operates the model so dexterously that Authentic has meanwhile maintained demand, at his more lenient fees, with books of 202 and 198 mares. With 165 live foals to go to war, he surely gives the farm every chance of a third consecutive champion freshman.

MCKINZIE has bucked the trend by retaining his initial fee of $30,000 for a fourth year. He starred at the sales, sending no fewer than 144 into the ring-a staggering percentage of his 174 live foals. That's expressive of the commercial package he had offered in combining knockout looks with 11 triple-digit Beyers, plus Grade Is at two, three and four. He duly sold 110 at a median $90,000, reaching an average of $149,157 after blowing the doors off with a $1.2 million colt at the September Sale. (Both indices beaten only by Authentic in the class.) We've all seen market discoveries sink without trace, over the years, but McKinzie has certainly raised expectations and duly maintained numbers in the meantime, with books of 171 and 168.

The next intake is also represented by two sires, now preparing their first yearlings for auction. One of their peers, Essential Quality, actually remains beyond even this level and duly topped the weanling averages, but CHARLATAN filled second place in selling 19 of 22 at a median $175,000 and average $206,052. That was what he had to do, having similarly starting out behind only Essential Quality in terms of fee, and he's another whose original investors have been spared a depreciation: he remains $50,000 for 2024.

Charlatan emerged from the same crop and barn as Authentic to emulate the GI Arkansas Derby-GI Malibu S. double of Omaha Beach the previous year, and was only narrowly outstayed when stretching his speed again in the G1 Saudi Cup. Unfortunately he then suffered another setback, but nobody forgot his talent and he started with books of 222 and 223. Breeders evidently recalled that he had himself been a $700,000 yearling out of a genuine Grade I mare.

Maxfield | Sarah Andrew

MAXFIELD takes a mild trim, to $35,000 from $40,000, despite selling 11 of a dozen weanlings at a median $110,000/average $165,181. His farm tends to be more conservative with its books, so 165 mares for his first year looked like a full subscription, with another 134 in his second. Maxfield was beaten by just four horses across 11 starts, won a Grade I as a juvenile by five and a half lengths, and above all is out of a Bernardini half-sister to the admirable stallion Sky Mesa (very fine family overall).

Four youngsters who covered their first mares last spring assembled books that appeared, after the mare cap debacle, to be making a point of some kind-albeit one that may be lost on anyone who ends up with only an average specimen to bring to saturated catalogues.

With 262 partners, EPICENTER was behind only his frenzied studmate Golden Pal among American sires, his championship campaign having featured a standout GI Travers (112 Beyer). His sire has gone beyond reach, for most, and I love the sturdy European influences sowing his deeper family-though I can't imagine that those names were front and central for many others!

His neighbor JACK CHRISTOPHER was nearly as hectic with 247 mares. He must have been an easy sell, even his solitary defeat in the GI Haskell counting in his favor as confirming him to be all speed. He'd have had plenty of support had he retired on the spot after a daylight debut success at Saratoga, and beat a good one when returning for what proved his final start a year later. Both he and Epicenter take the customary trim, from $45,000 to $40,000, to help keep the door revolving.

Jack Christopher | Sara Gordon

Jack Christopher represents Munnings, of course, and it's good to see some of Speightstown's later sons contesting the legacy.

Just like Charlatan, OLYMPIAD was a $700,000 yearling. His debut book of 228, making him the busiest stallion outside Ashford, shows that plenty of other farms are prepared to go all out for numbers, given the chance. He matured through the grades with eight triple-figure Beyers, but the clincher is Chic Shirine as third dam. By this stage of the series, you probably won't be surprised that proven stallions populate the Value Podium, but this guy looks a profoundly wholesome prospect in retaining a fee of $35,0000.

Though JACKIE'S WARRIOR had to settle for “just” 182 mares, he could comfort himself that they included Beholder! He's another to take a clip, to $45,000 from $50,000, but still finds himself standing for more than his own sire. Even so, he will remain in demand as a Grade I winner at Saratoga three years running, an unprecedented achievement gilded by a 28-year-old stakes record in the Hopeful.

Right, now let's get onto some sires that have actually demonstrated some competence to replicate the genetic prowess we should be looking for at this kind of fee.

Of these, the one who has barely started is OMAHA BEACH. He's just completed his freshman season with fourth place in a table dominated by Spendthrift sires, on the face of it hardly measuring up to his status as the most expensive of the quartet. But I'm not alone in retaining high hopes, judged from the fact that his fee has moved back up to $40,000 for 2024, having been allowed to slide from an opening $45,000 to $30,000.

Because while he has only had a couple of stakes winners, he has a class-high 11 black-type performers from 64 starters–a much smaller footprint than his three studmates (Vino Rosso, late bloomer though he was, has fielded 92!)–and these include four at graded stakes level. Omaha Beach presumably received rather more Classic/two-turn mares than his peers, and it's reasonable to expect consolidation from here. It's a rare horse nowadays that can win Grade Is at both six and nine furlongs, and his family overflows with quality.

Obviously, he has volume behind him, standing where he does, but that was partly a function of what seemed pretty lenient pricing throughout. His second crop of yearlings held up very well, at a median $105,000/average $156,508 for 95 sold (116 offered). That keeps Omaha Beach miles clear of his intake, some of whom have been quickly embarrassed by their opening fees. Those who kept the faith in the meantime (185 mares in his fourth book last spring) are entitled remain optimistic, the only caveat being the overall underperformance of this particular class of freshmen, judged by graded stakes winners. It's now over to Omaha Beach to convert his promise into a headliner or two.

City of Light | Lane's End

A similar remark might have been made, this time last year, about CITY OF LIGHT–and, heading into the Breeders' Cup, he had still not justified an against-the-tide hike from $40,000 to $60,000 in 2022. That was the reward for a sensational debut (average $337,698/median $260,000) at the yearling sales. With his book down to 85 last spring, from 132, he was slashed to $35,000 for 2024. But then along came Fierceness, and suddenly everything is looking much more cheerful.

City Of Light may have a few later developers, but 18 black-type performers from no more than 127 to have made the starting gate is a very fair ratio. His fee cut was among several such gestures by his farm after polarisation at the sales (where his third crop were down to a median $75,000/average $126,269 for 63 sold of 75) made it feel as though fees generally remain too high.

In his (very competitive) intake, one who has only elevated his reputation is GIRVIN, who started in Florida at $7,500 and is up to $30,000 (from $20,000) after consolidating the breakout that earned him a ticket to Kentucky. From limited materials, he is so far operating at 6 percent stakes winners (including Grade I scorer Faiza) to named foals, narrowly bettered only by Good Magic and Army Mule in his class.

Girvin's tragic sibling Midnight Bourbon showed what their unraced dam Catch the Moon must be contributing to the equation, and this year Catch the Moon's sister produced Brightwork to lend further Grade I luster to the page. Everyone should duly be fully reconciled by now to Girvin's unfashionable (but superbly-bred) sire. Those who bred to Girvin in his second year in Ocala, at $6,000, certainly can't complain about a yearling average of $92,411 (stretched by a $475,000 colt, but a $41,000 median itself very respectable) for 17 sold from 21 offered. Girvin is firmly on his way, through the roof by the restrained standards of his farm with 181 mares (up from 86) last spring, and only an even more upwardly mobile studmate has kept him off the Value Podium.

Violence | Sarah Andrew

Before we get to that, we have three horses that have by now had ample opportunity to show where they fit in the marketplace: Liam's Map, Maclean's Music and VIOLENCE.

Not that the latter has remotely settled, in terms of pricing! Initially elevated to $60,000 for 2024, he has meanwhile slipped back into this bracket at $40,000. The reasons have been cogently explained, and leave him looking big value as the sire of two new stallions in Kentucky this year, not to mention one with an obvious shot at the freshman title in Volatile. Violence is actually cheaper than his champion son Forte, a rookie whose supporters would surely be delighted if he can produce as many fast horses by the time he reaches the equivalent point of his career. Violence's book will be managed appropriately to his circumstances, but purely in terms of value he looks of imperative interest to eligible mares. For this is a proven achiever at this level–both on the track and in the ring, where he moved his yearling yield up to a median of $80,000 (from $60,000) and average $121,642 (from $97,614). That's impressive for a stallion with seven crops in play. Violence was No. 13 on the general sires' list and the caveats sound very manageable.

His studmate MACLEAN'S MUSIC also looks a fair price at $40,000, after a couple of years at $50,000, considering that he has four sons at stud in the Bluegrass. We've already noted one of them, Jackie's Warrior, getting plenty of trade at a higher fee, while Drain The Clock served no fewer than 199 mares in his debut season. Maclean's Music himself had to settle for 144 last spring, but covered 421 over the previous two seasons after dwindling to 57 in 2020, so the good old “pipeline” is well and truly loaded. In fact, no fewer than 183 live foals in 2022 give him the single biggest battalion of juveniles for the forthcoming campaign. So this looks a pretty shrewd time to stay aboard with a horse who processed as many as 104 of 131 yearlings at an average $118,739 ($70,000 median sound enough, against a $25,000 conception fee).

LIAM'S MAP also maintained his sales performance, selling 80 of 102 offered at a $100,000 median/$124,024 average–conceived at $30,000–albeit down somewhat on the previous crop, who had knocked it out of the park ($130,000/$166,724). Standing at $40,000 for a third year running, he once again proved a reliable source of stakes action this year, chiefly with maturing stock. His next task is to emulate the Hill 'n' Dale pair, who have been in the game rather longer, as a sire of sires.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: HARD SPUN
Danzig–Turkish Tryst (Turkoman)
Darley $35,000

So I guess he's not going to change the world, at this stage–but I really don't see much better value to prove your mare, or just to get yourself a racehorse. I know that's not everyone's priority, but the fact is that the last big son of Danzig has now turned 20 and that leaves us diminishing access to the great patriarch.

Hard Spun | Darley

Hard Spun missed a return to the top 10 sires only by cents, relatively speaking, and it was a measure of what he can do for a mare that a horse with as plain a page as Two Phil's could break into the elite of his crop, and now become Hard Spun's fourth son at stud in Kentucky.

It's incredible that a horse with a dozen domestic Grade I winners has never gone higher than $45,000 in the decade since he made the sojourn in Japan that (in hindsight) cost him vital momentum. In that time, he has finished as high as fourth in the general sires' list, but he doesn't get precocious horses and has settled at a median $67,500 (strong six-figure average) with his last couple of yearling crops.

Hard Spun nonetheless produced another 26 black-type performers in 2023, and cumulatively stands at No. 7 among active sires with several ratios (for instance, graded stakes winners/performers at 2.7/5.7 percent of named foals) uncannily in step with his old buddy Street Sense, who maintains a fee of $60,000.

It's gratifying to see that he remains fully subscribed, 151 mares last year showing that there are still plenty of breeders out there who recognise the importance not just of getting a winner under their mare, but a high-class winner. Hard Spun's stock goes on all surfaces, at all distances, and with those storied Darby Dan bloodlines behind him, it's no surprise that he should meanwhile be emerging as a broodmare influence. His daughters have lately produced a top-class miler in Europe in Alcohol Free (Ire) (No Nay Never), and no less an animal than Good Magic.

Somehow the world has spun against this horse, but it's very hard to see why.

Silver: AMERICAN PHAROAH
Pioneerof The Nile–Littleprincessemma (Yankee Gentleman)
Ashford Stud $50,000

Well, you can't win them all–even if you're Coolmore. Who could have said, for certain, which of their two Triple Crown winners would best replicate the talent that had confirmed the series to remain within the competence of a modern Thoroughbred? It was actually this one, having ended a generation of doubt, that started at the higher fee: he opened at $200,000 in 2016, and Justify at $150,000 three years later. The latter had been trimmed to $100,000 by the time he launched his first runners, in 2022; and American Pharoah had taken a proportionately deeper cut at the equivalent stage, to $110,000 for 2019. Their paths since, however, have forked radically. Justify is now out of sight, listed as private; and Pharoah enters 2024 suffering the indignity of yet another cut, this time down to $50,000 from $60,000.

American Pharoah | Sarah Andrew

Now there's no way that you can say he's any kind of dud, en route to oblivion. He finished 2023 at No. 6 in the general sires' list, with a seventh Grade I winner supplemented by no fewer than six others placed at the elite level–and that's taking no account of his success in Australia, including a G1 Victoria Derby winner. Yes, like most stallions on this farm, the volume behind him proves a double-edged sword when it comes to his ratios.

His 11 stakes winners arrived at 3.7 percent, pretty unexciting given the quality he must have been working with. But he continues to get his superior/graded action at a superior rate to ever-fashionable studmate Munnings, for instance, who commands a 50 percent higher fee.

The exotic seeding of American Pharoah's family was always liable to make the owners of top-class mares a little nervous, but his dam has proved a consistent producer so something has come together in dynamic fashion. Further action was plainly required after he assembled no more than 129 mares with last year's reduction, but if able to maintain his current sales performance–yearling median $150,000 with both his last two crops, averaging $210,164 in 2023–then you'll be looking at a very fair yield at his current price.

Both American Pharoah and Justify have proved effective sires on turf. If this fee proves a last roll of the dice, then I might impudently suggest once again that American Pharoah could be worth a spin in Co. Tipperary. But he's now within reach of a different type of American breeder, and that may well grant him a new lease of life.

Gold: UPSTART
Flatter–Party Silks (Touch Gold)
Airdrie Stud $30,000

So what is it, really, that we can hope to find at this level? I mean, we're obviously excluding “fantasy” breeding to untested stallions. But is there perhaps a horse out there hinting that he's pressing against the ceiling, and might soon be inaccessible? The other pair on the podium, admirable as they are, hardly fit that category. To me, however, Upstart is the dude in this tier who has the chance of elevating himself to a higher level yet.

Upstart | EquiSport

Maybe you were disappointed that he didn't follow through the 2022 deeds of Zandon and Kathleen O (among 63 named foals conceived at $10,000) with his next crop of sophomores? Well, that's because his third crop comprised just 27 live foals. Even so they included Prerequisite, a $47,000-to-$350,000 pinhook who won the GII Wonder Again S. on her first start outside maiden company, and then missed a Grade I by three parts of a length next time. Meanwhile, as we knew to expect from his own template (multiple Grade I-placed in three consecutive seasons), his mature stock kept him in the game with wins in races as resonant as the GII Clark and GII Woodward S.

He has punched conspicuously above weight at the sales, averaging $90,900 in 2022, but traded at just $39,434 from a modest book last year. But he's now ready to open a new cycle. His incoming yearlings emerge from a book of 151, saturation point for a farm that resists the opportunity of exposing their clients by inundating catalogues. Hiked to $30,000 last spring, he entertained another 153. When you consider what he has been doing with mediocre materials, this is a stallion on the point of a big move.

Despite a dual Grade I runner-up among his first juveniles, Upstart somehow remained bumping along at $10,000. Even so, his 13 stakes winners at 5.2 percent of named foals and 26 black-type performers at 10.4 percent compares with 5/12.2 percent for the lavishly supported Nyquist (standing at $85,000) in his own class; 4/9 percent for Practical Joke ($45,000) and 5.2/8.5 percent for Arrogate in the following intake; 5.9/9.4 percent for Justify and 4/11.1 percent for Bolt d'Oro ($60,000) in the one after that.

This is a horse that gets stock onto the track, and into the winner's circle: 53 percent winners to lifetime starters, compared with 46 percent for the soaraway hero of his intake, Not This Time; 41 percent for Nyquist; 43 percent even for the stellar Gun Runner, the same for Practical Joke, just 39 percent for Arrogate.

Upstart was cleverly named and, it now seems, aptly too. There are some curiosities sowing his family, but it's demonstrably all working. Perhaps the farm that gave us the sires of Uncle Mo and Into Mischief has again tapped into an unexpected seam of gold. With an incoming spike in quality and quantity, catch him while you can.

The post Value Sires For 2024 Part 6: Reaching The Snowline appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires for 2024, Part 5: The 20-Somethings

Today we reach quite a crossroads in the market, between $20,000 and $29,999. It takes a degree of affluence to roll the dice at this level, but you'd do so hoping to reach blood of genuine elite potential.

As usual, we've sieved out the new sires, having given them a separate treatment at the outset. Instructively, however, it's a tier dominated by stallions still in the early stages of their careers. And there is an auspicious flux here. One or two, if building on a promising start on the track, could conceivably prove to be on their way to stardom.

Inevitably, there are also plenty of sires only trading at this kind of fee because they have not yet been exposed on the track. The reality is that few of these will ultimately hold out. And while we've cheerfully highlighted value about a couple of sires at a similarly untested stage, earlier in this series, that's harder to do at this money.

But what these horses do generally have behind them, having started with the sort of profile that merits a strong opening fee, is numbers.

Handsome as he is, for instance, and fast as he ran, it seemed staggering that YAUPON should have covered as many as 242 mares for his debut in 2022, behind only Gun Runner. But next time round, we saw another farm go to a dizzier level yet, allowing rookie turf sprinter GOLDEN PAL to entertain no fewer than 293.

Yauppon | Sarah Andrew

Now we all understand how this model works and breeders embrace it with open eyes. Some will hit a home run, but they're going to have to stand out from a crowd. You all know what the stakes are, and whether it can work in your program, and you don't need me preaching one way or the other. For the record, Yaupon duly processed 36 of 40 weanlings at an average $130,888/median $100,000.

He had to settle for 202 mares last time, some of his 2022 supporters having doubtless flitted straight to Golden Pal; but others yet will have switched to his new studmate CYBERKNIFE, who mustered 223. Gun Runner has risen so fast that more affordable sons are finding themselves quickly in the game, and this was one of his breakout stars who beat a 37-year track record in the GI Haskell S.

The sophomore frustrations of CORNICHE cannot have helped his cause, so a book of 180 pays tribute to the brilliance of his championship campaign. As much as the way he dominated the crop as a juvenile, the pinhookers will be dwelling on his $1.5-million breeze as a 2-year-old (and 98 Beyer on debut). Some arcane names seed his family, but the genes were all functioning in his dam, six-time graded stakes scorer Wasted Tears (Najran).

Standing on a couple of farms that know how to keep a young stallion in the game, Golden Pal, Yaupon, Cyberknife and Corniche all take a trim in 2024 from $30,000 to $25,000.

The industrial approach is long familiar at Spendthrift and Ashford, but Juddmonte also played a candidly commercial game with MANDALOUN, who opened with as many as 211 partners. So he has certainly been given every chance of riding the luck he enjoyed when promoted from second for both his Grade Is. He actually paid somewhat for that rather freakish fortune, in that it distracted people from his inherent merit. Meanwhile he's another taking a clip, in his case from $25,000 to $20,000.

These horses are slipstreaming a handful on the brink of launching their first runners. One who excelled at the sales was WAR OF WILL, whose $117,202 average (for 61 of 77 sold) placed him third in the debutants' table (sales up to $650,000, $85,000 median). He duly retains his opening fee at $25,000. War of Will appeals as a stallion for our times, as a Grade I scorer on both dirt and turf, but the clincher is a Niarchos family saturated with quality. A full subscription of 143 mares in his debut book has predictably tapered a little since (112 and 84), but the enthusiasm of the market is a huge plus for a horse who must contend with its crass reservations about anything–even a Preakness winner!–bearing a taint of turf.

Two others from his intake not only started out with very similar books (157 and 159), but achieved an identical median of $53,500 with their first yearlings. That was better news for GAME WINNER than TIZ THE LAW, in that they opened at $30,000 and $40,000, respectively. Their averages were very similar too: the former sold 66 of 84 at $95,772, just behind the latter with 64 sold of 70 at $99,835. They remain in step now, both down to $20,000 for 2024.

It was Tiz the Law who rallied in his second book, to 218 mares against 131 for Game Winner, and maintained an advantage of 131 against 96 last spring. He collected a series of stallion-making Grade Is–Champagne/Florida Derby/Belmont/ Travers–and might well have added the Derby if only it had been run at the normal date in 2020. That makes him look a lot of horse at this money.

As for Game Winner, he obviously offers commercial precocity as an unbeaten champion juvenile, and very few of the crop managed to close the gap on him at three.

Maximus Mischief | Louise Reinagel

How those behind this trio would love to see them emulate MAXIMUS MISCHIEF, VINO ROSSO and FLAMEAWAY, who have all just completed their freshman season in a way that has earned an elevation in fee for 2024.

Spendthrift buddies Maximus Mischief and Vino Rosso contested second in the first-season sires' table all the way to the wire. The former–repeatedly advised as a commercial no-brainer at $7,500–is hiked to $25,000 and Vino Rosso, having been kept in the game in familiar fashion by halving to $15,000 from an opening $30,000, now inches back up to $20,000.

Inevitably their farm has succeeded in maintaining volume behind both horses. In their fourth books, Vino Rosso covered 171 mares and Maximus Mischief 159. Pretty impressive, given how many of their original supporters must have been the type that annually jumps from one new sire to the next.

Vino Rosso, having himself thrived with maturity, has surprised people with the precocity of some stock, but then you're going to get many different flavors with no fewer than 155 named foals in your debut crop! His 23 winners actually represent an unremarkable percentage, then, but where Vino Rosso does deserve credit is in mustering four to make the frame at Grade I level. Overall this has been an unproductive class, in graded stakes terms, but at least Vino Rosso has been coming up with the right caliber.

Maximus Mischief has mustered a solitary graded stakes placing, though of course he was dealing with relatively modest materials when starting at a quarter of Vino Rosso's opening fee. This is a big moment for him, in that he needs to capitalize on his platform of 31 winners with an upgrade in mares at his new fee. (Predictably enough, he has already launched the highest percentage of named foals among all the freshman sires, at just about two-in-three). His yearling average held up well, with 57 of 67 sold at a $38,000 median (average $47,312) compared with $40,000 (average $57,019, as much as anyone could have asked off a $7,500 conception) for 77 sold last year.

Vino Rosso's 75 sales from 98 yearlings offered from his second crop achieved a $45,000 median ($55,558 average), down from $61,000 ($94,287 average) for 112 sold on debut. But his own template (and that of his own sire Curlin) is encouraging for his stock to keep progressing now, and interestingly both Vino Rosso and Maximus Mischief moved their weanling prices back up compared with 2022.

Hats off to Flameaway, meanwhile, for getting closest to breaking up the Spendthrift freshman monopoly. None of the quartet above him can match his four stakes winners, while he joins only champion Mitole and Solomini in relieving the overall embarrassment of the class in at least managing one graded stakes scorer.

It must be said that he had decent numbers behind him, with 109 named foals, but by the same token the pipeline will be maintained by three-figure books annually since. Like Maximus Mischief, he needs to seize the moment after making precisely the same leap in fee, to $25,000 from $7,500. His second crop of yearlings didn't really reflect the fine start made by their predecessors, 41 of 54 changing hands at an unchanged median of $30,000 (average $44,950, down from $49,340). But there should be plenty of action to come from such a versatile horse, who won at various trips on three different surfaces. Auspiciously, his flagship Dreamfyre divided her two graded stakes wins between six furlongs of dirt and a mile of turf. Flameaway's third dam is a true matriarch in Europe and he offers all the flexibility we should be seeking in a changing landscape.

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze: BLAME
(Arch–Liable, by Seeking the Gold)
Claiborne, $25,000

How many of the aspiring youngsters who dominate this tier will end up achieving anything like as much as Blame? Entering his 13th season at stud, he has settled into the middle of this bracket as by far its most established operator. In fact, he's become a rather unique horse at this level. Everyone else is passing through, in one direction or the other. Blame is the only one trading at this kind of money where you know definitively where you stand. Others could yet turn out to have flattered to deceive, whereas he has found a fairly uncontested place among proven sires, between the blue-collar strivers and the unaffordable elite.

He's actually had a modest year by his standards, with only three stakes winners, albeit these did include a sixth Grade I scorer in Wet Paint. But his lifetime rations are extremely solid: 6.5% stakes winners from named foals, 3% at graded stakes level. His ratios are a match for the likes of Munnings, Street Sense and Twirling Candy, to name just three sires too good to be embarrassed by the comparison. And the big news with him over the past couple of years is his precocious emergence as a broodmare sire.

His breakout moment in this role was the GI Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland in 2022, aptly sponsored by Claiborne, when the pair that dueled clear of a strong field–champion Forte (Violence) and the luckless Loggins (Ghostzapper)–were both out of Blame mares. This is hardly a surprising development in a stallion whose third dam is none other than Special (Forli {Arg}). So for many programs–one that would like to keep a filly, for instance, or just to prove a young mare–Blame will offer better value than most horses in higher tiers. For the record, the niche he has carved out for himself could be measured in 2023 by a book of 129 mares, plus a yearling average of $94,442 (up from $82,075)–both really solid for a horse at this level of the market, at this stage of his career.

Oscar Performance | Sarah Andrew

Silver: OSCAR PERFORMANCE
(Kitten's Joy–Devine Actress, by Theatrical {Ire})
Mill Ridge, $25,000

Cometh the hour, cometh the man.

Here's a horse that faced only one problem when retiring to stud, but one as significant as it was tiresome: the notorious myopia of the domestic market regarding even high-class grass stallions. We all know how brutally difficult it is to stand a turf horse in the Bluegrass. Even English Channel and Kitten's Joy never quite cracked ringside prejudice sufficiently to obtain adequate reward for their outstanding records. But the consecutive loss of both those horses, even as he started out, nonetheless represented a big opportunity for Oscar Performance. And while it's still early days, he's making a strong case to step up as heir to his sire.

Oscar Performance covered 160 mares last spring, much his biggest book in his fifth season at stud. He had covered just 63 the previous year, but started out with a couple of three-figure books, so there will be plenty of talent coming through–especially when you recall how he kept thriving as a runner–to keep his name in lights, pending the arrival of the better stock he should be producing now.

And here's something else he did this year, that would be no less exceptional in a commercial dirt stallion. Offering his third crop of yearlings, he achieved an average of $79,959 (23 sold from 30; admittedly a $35,000 median was more in line with the $15,000 conception fee) up from $57,474 ($32,500) for his second; and $43,149 ($26,000) for his first. In other words, he's reversing the usual trend: his stock is gaining in value by the year.

Why is this happening? Well, as we said, it's still early in the piece. None of his stock is yet at the same age as Oscar Performance when he won his fourth Grade I in the Woodbine Mile. But he's now had two crops to borrow the precocity he also required to win the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, and they have together produced eight graded stakes horses at a ratio (5% of named foals) exceeded, in what looks a very strong intake, only by Justify; and matched only by Bolt d'Oro.

Interestingly his principal earner to date is Red Carpet Ready, whose two graded stakes wins actually came on the main track–on which surface he's also had Tumbarumba win the Ellis Park Derby and Deer District win a Churchill allowance by 10 lengths before placing in the GII Amsterdam S. So second and third dams by Mr. Prospector and Slew o' Gold are obviously having a say while, purely in terms of quality, his own mother has also produced two additional graded stakes-winning siblings.

His second crop has produced dual graded stakes scorer Endlessly, who looks aptly named for how far his sire may advance from here. After returning to his opening fee of $20,000 last year, back up from $12,500, Oscar Performance has now edged up to $25,000. If he can keep building from here, he may reach a much higher level as breeders belatedly service an expanding turf program.

Gold: ARMY MULE
(Friesan Fire–Crafty Toast, by Crafty Prospector)
Hill 'n' Dale, $25,000

This was a racetrack meteor–brief but bright–and now we're immediately seeing persuasive evidence that he may be replicating the freakish talent that we only glimpsed. It's not the most conventional profile, nor pedigree, but the functionality cannot be in question. If Army Mule carries on the way he has started, enough people are going to accept that reality for him to break into the elite. If so, doubling his fee from $12,500 last year is only going to be a start.

Remember he had to muscle his way into an exceptionally strong class of freshmen. Justify is soaring to stardom, either side of the water, and Good Magic came up with a Derby winner at the first attempt. In his first two crops, sired at $10,000 and $7,500, Army Mule produced only 138 named foals. Of the five above him in the cumulative earnings table, Mendelssohn has 323; Justify 309; Bolt d'Oro 238; Good Magic 226; City of Light 191. So guess what, some (but only some) of those have more stakes winners. But in what ratios?

Start with his individual winners: 68 from 108 starters, 49% of named foals. Justify is getting his at 28%; Good Magic 38%; Bolt d'Oro 39%; Mendelssohn 36%; City of Light 30%.

Of these, 10 have won at black-type level: 7.3% of named foals. Justify is operating at 6.5%; Good Magic matches Army Mule at 7.5%; Bolt d'Oro is on 4.2%; and Mendelssohn 1.9%; City of Light 3.7%. In terms of stakes performers overall, Army Mule's 11.6% is only matched in the class by Bolt d'Oro.

Understandably, given the relative caliber of mares they will have received, Army Mule can't quite see that performance through at graded stakes level. He only has two such winners, among five placed. Moreover his farm was not even able to promote his Grade I breakout with One In Vermillion, the Allen Jerkens S. having fallen into his lap in ghastly circumstances. But someone needs to say that One In Vermillion has proved a legitimate graded stakes performer as a $26,000 yearling from the Arizona TBA Fall Mixed Sale. Army Mule also has Danse Macabre, an $11,000 short yearling, close to millionaire status after winning five of her first 10. (Incidentally, another nod to our bronze medalist here: she's out of a Blame mare.)

His debut crop had already done enough by last spring for Army Mule to entertain 199 mares in his fifth season at stud, up from 115 in 2022 and 83 the previous year. His 2024 sophomores emerge from a crop of just 37 live foals, so he may have to tread water briefly. But surely Army Mule is one of those rare stallions who do enough, early enough, to lock in the medium-term momentum required. Sure enough, he sold 28 (from 38) of his latest crop of yearlings for a median $67,500 and average $96,650, up from $51,000 and $69,272: stellar returns for those who kept the faith for a $7,500 conception.

As a rule, I prefer a horse that has left no doubt as to his resilience and Army Mule's entire career comprised barely four minutes. But the talent that made him a six-length Grade I winner (114 Beyer) in that time was already luminous when he turned himself from $35,000 yearling to $825,000 2-year-old. This farm has a great record with these flashbulb talents, and there's a rapidly rising tide to catch with Army Mule.

The breeders have their say…

We asked breeders to weigh in on who their top picks were.

Carrie Brogden of Machmer Hall

GOLD: Army Mule
Gold would have to be Army Mule. He has had so much success from such modest mares that you have to pay attention. If he can simply maintain what he has done so far until the big gun crops come down the pipeline, he has the potential to be a breakout stallion. For example, we sold the dam of Grade I winner One In a Vermillion carrying him in utero for a paltry $4,500, bred on our share that I am probably going to completely regret selling earlier this year. He seems to offer speed, soundness, heart and his good looks.

Vino Rosso | Sarah Andrew

SILVER: Vino Rosso
(Curlin–Mythical Bride, by Street Cry {Ire})
Spendthrift Farm, $20,000
Silver for me would have to be Vino Rosso. We have booked three mares to him based on what he did with his first crop of 2-year-olds. Considering his own race record and breeding, I would expect that they will excel with added distance. He seems to throw a particular type and I know that he is booked full for 2024, so clearly I am not the only one who sees his future potential. When I was at the Keeneland September sale this year, we had a nice colt out of Queenie's Pride (Special Rate) and the positive feedback I got from trainers and 2-year-old consignors was surprising to me since it was so early in the year for a son of Curlin that won the GI Breeders' Cup Classic as a 4-year-old. Speaking of Curlin, what an emerging superstar sire of sires he is! That coupled with Spendthrift's eye-popping accomplishment of a stallion farm leading home all top four freshman sires for 2023 in North America, the future looks very bright!

BRONZE:
TIZ THE LAW
(Constitution–Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
Coolmore, $20,000

GAME WINNER
(Candy Ride {Arg}–Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy)
Lane's End Farm, $20,000

Bronze would be a tie between Tiz the Law and Game Winner. Talk about racehorses! Tiz the Law won FOUR Grade Is as a 2-year-old and 3-year-old! He is by a rising top-tier stallion in Constitution and the reception and physical attributes of his babies reminded me of the early crops of Constitution.

Game Winner, a 2-year-old champion, won THREE Grade Is as a 2-year-old and is by the incredible sire of sires Candy Ride. With the ones we had at Machmer Hall and that I saw at the sales, I personally felt that there was a lot of Candy Ride in them. I was the underbidder on two really nice weanlings by him and am still having non-buyer's remorse there. No crystal balls of course, as I am constantly reminded of playing Geoffery Russell's freshman sire contest every year, but both of these young stallions have the race record and stock to step into the very big shoes of both of their fathers.

John Greathouse of Glencrest Farm

GOLD: Blame
Blame was a gutsy racehorse and I think that's what he gets you. He's sired six Grade I winners and has been consistent year after year at the sales and at the races. He produces solid individuals that are sound and can go two turns. Blame is also starting to prove to be an excellent broodmare sire. Forte and Wet Paint are prime examples of that. If you are looking to start a young mare, there aren't many horses you can pick from that stand for less than 30k and are as proven as Blame.

Blame | Claiborne Farm

SILVER: Vino Rosso
Vino Rosso is great value at 20k. He's third on the first-crop sire list, but I think he's far ahead of where most people expected him to be at this point. He was a horse that was better going two turns and I expected his progeny would be the same. His offspring are smooth and athletic. He comes from a serious family of runners. If his progeny improve going longer, we could be talking about him like we were talking about Good Magic in 2023. There is real upside at 20k.

BRONZE: Maximus Mischief
(Into Mischief–Reina Maria, by Songandaprayer)
Spendthrift Farm, $25,000
Maximus Mischief was one of the fastest 2-year-old sons of Into Mischief, which is no easy feat. That precocity is showing up with his 2-year-olds. He's off to a terrific start with 30 winners and sits second on the first-crop sire rankings. He has bred a big book of mares every year, so I don't expect him to slow down anytime soon. I like that he gets a big, strong horse with plenty of bone which suits smaller mares. We have bred to him in the past and will continue to support him this year.

The post Value Sires for 2024, Part 5: The 20-Somethings appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires For 2024, Part 4: Into The Teens

Today we'll consider some of the sires standing between $10,001 and $19,999. For a long time, I called this the Lookin At Lucky zone. But don't worry, we won't be deploring his neglect yet again: he's staying in Chile, where they evidently appreciate him rather more.

Plenty of horses in this bracket have recently relinquished their brief window of commercial opportunity, and are now hanging around to discover whether they might join the very small group whose first runners generate a fresh vogue. Even with the newcomers out of the equation–we gave them a separate assessment, to open the series–we're left with three groups still untested on the track: those expecting their first foals; those who have just sold their first weanlings; and those actually about to dip a toe in the water with their first runners.

Pending that crossroads, many find themselves somewhat adrift against a bunch of older sires who have survived that test. These fit this tier either because they are losing stature or, more cheerfully, because they have carved out a viable niche as an affordable source of winners.

First the young guns. Of those who sent their first yearlings to auction this year, the ones who really nailed it, unsurprisingly, vaunted the kind of speed that pinhookers crave.

VOLATILE burned brightly in a light career, not seen again after confirming his Grade I caliber against a small but select field in the Vanderbilt. His 112 Beyer in the Aristides S. (1:07.57) was the highest of 2020 and duly secured 181 mares the following spring. Himself an $850,000 yearling, with a GI Test/GI Ballerina winner as granddam, his $125,431 average was boosted by a spectacular $1.15 million docket for a Book 1 filly at Keeneland in September. Nudged back up to $15,000 (from $12,500), Volatile has three hefty books behind him and will be the horse to beat for the freshman title next year.

But not even his median yield of 4.3 on his opening fee ($75,000/ $17,500) could match that of COMPLEXITY, whose $65,000 median (never mind his average $90,400!) multiplied his $12,500 fee by 5.2. Complexity started with some serious volume by the restrained standards of his farm, and then followed through with another three-figure book in his second season. He was clearly in the same vicinity as Volatile as a mature horse (110 Beyer in the GII Kelso) but was the more accomplished juvenile, wiring a Saratoga maiden (90 Beyer) before a decisive success in the GI Champagne S. on his second start. His half-sister ran second in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, so their unraced dam is obviously channelling the good stuff.

VEKOMA is meanwhile working the Spendthrift system with remarkable efficiency, having started out (at $20,000) with staggering volume, entertaining at least 200 mares in each of his first three seasons. This year he processed 102 of his first yearlings at $98,432, albeit was unsurprisingly stretched somewhat thinner by a median of $60,000. Though confined to eight starts across three seasons, he was class from beginning to end, posting big numbers for his Grade I double in the Carter and Met Mile. From a stallion-producing family, he's a horse I've liked all the way through and everything is in place for him to look after many (albeit probably not all!) of his (very many!) clients at $15,000.

Knicks Go | Sarah Andrew

Among those in this intake offering rather more stretch, one or two suffered horrible yearling medians relative to conception fee. But one who made a solid start off $12,500 was Bolt d'Oro's half-brother GLOBAL CAMPAIGN: 74 yearlings sold at $63,195 (median $43,500). This was a more talented animal than generally appreciated and I can see him proving himself a bargain gateway to Curlin. A closer look at his family shows that it tends to produce faster types than are associated with the seeding sires, and Global Campaign's first crop of 126 live foals may surprise a few people with their dash.

Of those who sold their first weanlings this fall, meanwhile, the one that will sort out the sheep and the goats is KNICKS GO. No questioning his talent, it was just never quite obvious where it all came from–albeit his dam maintained stakes speed through four seasons. Those who didn't require a more familiar pedigree were delighted to see a Horse of the Year introduced at just $30,000. Well, now they can get him for half that, even though he's still nearly 18 months away from the opportunity to demonstrate whether or not he can replicate his brilliance! At this money, some people will surely want to roll the dice.

Even as it is, his weanlings sold a little better than those of SILVER STATE. But it's very early days for the latter, whose pedigree in contrast elucidates all the class he manifested as a runner. A friendly clip to $15,000 should hopefully keep him in the game because this horse equipped to prove a really wholesome influence.

The subsequent intake features some truly frightening books, but I will resist dwelling on that here. Suffice to say that those playing a longer game might quite like a filly by either SPEAKER'S CORNER or MYSTIC GUIDE. Both have taken an early trim at Darley, respectively to $17,500 and $12,500, and their pedigrees shout distaff influence.

We'll have to see how many of the youngsters will endure even in this relatively modest tier, a few years from now. Nor does a flying start bring any guarantees, as UNION RAGS could caution them. The halving of his fee to $15,000 acknowledges the way he has faltered, having stood at $60,000 between 2018 and 2020. Trade for his latest yearlings made this further cut imperative, but he's still the same horse that so quickly came up with five Grade I winners. Hopefully he will find a little oxygen now that he has descended to more accessible altitudes.

Studmate DAREDEVIL has taken his second cut since returning to the U.S., now down to $15,000, but of course it's only in 2024 that we'll get to assess the first juveniles conceived after Swiss Skydiver prompted his urgent repatriation. Their sales performance demanded a mild trim in fee, but he could easily be poised for fresh momentum.

MENDELSSOHN has also taken consecutive cuts, similarly now available at $15,000. He has so far been more about quantity than quality but his supporters will hope that he can still emulate four others, standing at the same fee, who have all done admirably to create a lasting foothold in this most slippery of markets.

The first of these, DIALED IN, is something of a blue-collar hero. He maintains such high volume–corralled 175 mares last spring, his 10th at stud–that it will always be hard, with the raw materials available at this level, to make his ratios “sing”. But Defunded has once again shown the caliber within his competence as his third elite scorer. Dialed In gets his work done at a fair tariff, and will keep plugging away to leave behind many of those now starting at multiples of his fee.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

CAIRO PRINCE has also created a sustainable brand for himself through six crops, as attested by a solid book of 129 mares last spring. A set-your-clock black-type producer throughout, he's now entering the territory where he can legitimately prove a mare–and of course he gets such a nice type, the average ($54,194) and median ($40,000) of his latest yearlings duly best among this proven quartet.

MIDSHIPMAN is a true yeoman and it's typical of this business that he should have had a quieter year (by his very special standards) both on the track and in the sales ring after finally doubling his fee to $20,000 last year–due recognition for having punched above weight for so long. His lifetime stats remain ridiculous for a stallion who has largely been a four-figure cover: 47 stakes winners at 6.4 percent of named foals, nine at graded stakes level; and 101 black-type performers overall, at 13.7 percent. The trim back to $15,000 brings him back towards the reach of breeders who most appreciate just what he can do for their mares.

KANTHAROS, who has really pulled himself up by his bootstraps, had another very solid year on the track. He has made the same slip in fee, reflecting a tepid book of mares last spring and a challenging yield on yearlings conceived at $30,000. But that was an experience shared by many sires exposed to a porous middle market, and the fact is that Kantharos lurks only just outside the top 10 in the 2023 general sires' list with a dozen stakes winners, including a couple at graded level. His lifetime ratio of stakes runners–11 percent of named foals–remains outstanding for a horse whose first five books were compiled in Florida at just $5,000.

He sired two Grade I winners at that fee, and now has another millionaire in Grade II winner Bay Storm. The first of his two $30,000 books were juveniles this year, and we know how they will keep thriving. That guarantees Kantharos imminently entry into the top 20 active sires on lifetime earnings. All he needs to do is supplant… Lookin At Lucky!

VALUE PODIUM

Bronze Medal: CONNECT
Curlin–Bullville Belle (Holy Bull)
Lane's End $15,000

Connect | Sarah Andrew

Amid all this talk about stud fees being too high, credit is overdue to Lane's End for anticipating the mood in the room. From Flightline down, the farm made 11 cuts across their 2024 roster. All were meaningful, and some nearly brutal, effectively conceding that one or two stallions were drifting into trouble and needed some decisive help. Bravo! The very opposite of burying your head in the sand, and in the present environment I hope it works out both for the farm and its clients.

One stallion who can certainly benefit is Connect, restored from $25,000 to his 2021 fee of $15,000 after the crop conceived that year returned a tepid median (albeit a perfectly acceptable $45,774 average) at the yearling sales. He'd also suffered a real slump in his book last spring, down to 45 from 172 in 2022! But we're accustomed to seeing horses treated like this, once they have served their commercial purpose, and should sooner marvel at the impression he must have made with his first crop to get such a big book (up from 93 in 2021) in his fifth year at stud.

Sure enough, only Gun Runner and Practical Joke banked more prizemoney as freshmen in 2021, and only Gun Runner had more winners. Unfortunately Connect did not then consolidate especially well, but he has made a timely return to form this year with eight stakes winners, three at graded level, plus a GI Kentucky Oaks third in The Alys Look. Moreover, his first-crop flagship, the juvenile Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, failed by just half a length to add another elite score in the GI Stephen Foster S. That horse was a $55,000 weanling but has now banked $1.7 million across three seasons.

Connect's pedigree is not without its challenges but he's another to bring Curlin within range and had real prowess as a racehorse, a blip in the Travers his only defeat in seven starts (four triple-digit Beyers) up the grades after debut. He outkicked none other than Gun Runner in the GII Pennsylvania Derby and, while he won't be doing that again any time soon, he's actually siring winners at a higher percentage of named foals.

With that bumper crop of weanlings in the pipeline, and now a lenient fee, this looks a good time to re-Connect.

Silver Medal: KARAKONTIE (Jpn)
Bernstein–Sun Is Up (Jpn) (Sunday Silence)
Gainesway $15,000

Karakontie | Sarah Andrew

How pleasing to see this undervalued stallion moving his book back up last year, up to 86 from 48. Perhaps his hour has come at last, now that the minority prepared to breed to a quality turf sire in the Bluegrass have been deprived of English Channel and Kitten's Joy.

If you're enlightened enough to see the growing need for turf quality in the U.S., then you might also recognize that you don't always have to fly first class to Tattersalls. With a fifth crop on the track, Karakontie has still only had 174 starters, but seven have won graded stakes. For the second year running, moreover, he had an elite scorer in She Feels Pretty, winner of the GI Natalma S. before failing by barely half a length to overcome a wide trip in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Karakontie's premier earner Princess Grace meanwhile continued to thrive in Australia, missing Group 1 scores by a neck and half a length.

Even after a hike from $10,000, Karakontie is an awful lot of horse for this fee. He converted some of the most regal blood in the book–his third dam is Miesque herself–into a turn of foot that won him a Group 1 at two and then a mile Classic, before doing all he could to endear the American market in the GI Breeders' Cup Mile. Don't forget that he restores Sunday Silence to the Bluegrass through his dam, herself out of a half-sister to Kingmambo. His international pedigree and participation alike are a measure of our debt to the program that produced him.

The American market has not really grasped its privilege, with this horse, but the elevation in his fee tells you everything you need to know: he's being used by people who want to breed a runner, whether in their own silks or to boost a mare. Actually, Karakontie is perfectly capable of a home run at the sales, including the $525,000 filly at Keeneland in September whose buyers will have been delighted to see her full-sister (who herself made $280,000 the previous year) win the Tepin S. last month. His lesser specimens may struggle commercially, until the environment improves, but that won't trouble those eccentrics who calculate value according to the odds of ending up with a runner.

Gold Medal: MITOLE
Eskendereya–Indian Miss (Indian Charlie)
Spendthrift $15,000

How naïve of me to imagine that all those commercial breeders who flocked to the new sires in 2020 wanted nothing more than to land on the champion freshman of 2023. Because Mitole, as he closes in on those laurels, finds himself the only one of the four Spendthrift sires dominating this table to remain on the same fee in 2024.

Mitole | Louise Reinagel

Now, clearly this farm needs no help in how to make their remarkable machine run smoothly. The Spendthrift team know that Mitole was the one who took the biggest slide of the quartet, in the inevitable slackening of demand for their second crop of yearlings. But they had already ensured that these were conceived more affordably, trimming him from $25,000 in his debut season to $15,000. That was partly a concession to the Covid market, but it also offered such obvious value about a champion sprinter that he maintained the enthusiastic support of 184 mares even last spring, after topping 200 in each of his three previous seasons.

In other words, the system is functioning smoothly and Mitole has played his part so well that he approaches the winning post with a narrow advantage over Maximus Mischief (my serial “gold” pick, I might add, after starting at $7,500!) by prizemoney and also a wafer-thin one by individual winners (32 from 79 starters).

Whether or not he holds out, Mitole is the only one of the four to have a graded stakes scorer–and so joins Flameaway and Solomini in what has been a weirdly unproductive group, by that measure-in GIII Pocahontas S. winner/GI Alcibiades runner-up V V's Dream.

The precocious Maximus Mischief has shown a lot more of his hand (77 starters from 122 named foals) and remember that Mitole (79 from 145) himself only squeezed in a single start at two, in late November. It was as a 4-year-old that he racked up his four Grade Is–including that resonant Met Mile/Breeders' Cup Sprint double, and a stakes record at the intermediate distance in the Forego. So it seems fair to suggest that he has only just got started.

By now Mitole has surely stifled misgivings about his sire, himself after all a brilliant performer and a conduit of corresponding genes. Eskendereya's fifth dam is Cosmah, and doubles up her half-sister's son Northern Dancer top and bottom. It was presumably his unfashionable sire that confined Mitole to $20,000 as a yearling–but then along came kid brother Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), himself a $17,000 short yearling, to reiterate the merit of a family cultivated by the late Edward A. Cox Jr.

Hot Rod Charlie has now followed Eskendereya to Japan, where they have made a habit of exposing crass commercial trends in Kentucky. But here's a horse making the family assets work even in this less imaginative environment, and his debut at the 2-year-old sales–behind only Omaha Beach in the key freshman medians–suggest that Mitole will be taking out a long lease on the attention of pinhookers.

Sires In The Teens: Breeder Selections

Aidan O'Meara, Stonehaven Steadings

Aidan O'Meara | Keeneland

Gold Medal: Volatile
One of the best angles for success in the commercial breeding field is identifying a future leading stallion in the early stages and this sometimes requires taking a leap of faith breeding when their first runners are about to run. Volatile has been the breakout star at the yearling sales this year, mirroring his sire's first crop results a few years back. He's a beautifully built horse himself and passed his physique on with remarkable consistency. He's been very well supported by breeders and will have plenty of ammo in his first few crops to give him every opportunity. If his offspring have legitimate ability, he will skyrocket up the stallion ranks and $15,000 will look like the deal of the decade.

Silver Medal: Connect
The crop of 2021 has all been overshadowed by Gun Runner's incredible achievements, but Connect has been quietly developing a very solid career for himself. He has shown consistency with three graded stakes winners again this year and a strong supporting cast of stakes horses. He has also shown the ability to get the all-important high-class horse with Rattle N Roll. He measures well in all statistical categories and looks to be a stallion that can establish himself long term in the mold of a Midshipman/First Samurai/Blame type.

Bronze Medal: Audible
The Spendthrift quartet has garnered most of the attention from this year's freshmen and rightly so but one horse is simmering just below these and that horse is Audible. His 14% stakes horses with his first 2-year-olds cannot be ignored and his own racing career suggests there is more improvement to be had as they mature. He's a beautiful horse that can throw the right kind as witnessed by his first crop of yearlings. $15,000 is very intriguing for a horse with some potential future upswing and worst-case scenario has shown plenty of ability for longer term success at this price point.

Peter O'Callaghan, Woods Edge Farm

Peter O'Callaghan | Fasig-Tipton

Gold Medal: Midshipman
This stallion has been very good to us both on the track and in the sales ring. We recently bred first-time-out 2-year-old winner Midshipman's Dance; pinhooked Grade II winner Special Reserve; bred Leucothea and co-bred Amidst Waves, both of whom are multiple stakes winning 2-year-olds. He is a very consistent and well-respected sire, standing for an affordable $15,000. You can sell one well at the sales and he produces winners every weekend at the track.

Silver Medal: Mitole
Obviously a brilliant racehorse and looks to be turning out some good 2-year-old winners this second half of the year. Must be a horse worth a punt at $15,000. We are breeding to him again this year.

Bronze Medal: Vekoma
A brilliant racehorse, a high class 2-year-old who trained on, winning some high-profile races in the GII Bluegrass S. going two turns at three. Then winning the GI Carter H. and GI Met Mile at four in impressive fashion. Furthermore, he is a very well-bred son of Candy Ride (Arg), out of the GISW Speightstown mare Mona De Momma from the family of Mr. Greeley.

He is a good-looking horse who seems to sire plenty of good-looking stock. We have bred to him each year and have bought foals by him in each crop, he has not let us down so far.

I think he is a horse with a legitimate shot to be a sire standing at an affordable fee of $15,000.

The post Value Sires For 2024, Part 4: Into The Teens appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Sunday Insights: $1.8 Million Daughter Of Quality Road Looks To Shine At Seaside Oval

3rd-DMR, $61K, Msw, 2yo, f, 1m, 4:30 p.m.
At last year's Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Select Yearling Sale, trainer Bob Baffert with agent Donato Lanni bid to $1.8 million to secure NAFISA (Quality Road) on behalf of an undisclosed client who turned out to be Zedan Racing.

Consigned by Lane's End (hip 213), the auction's overall third topper was bred by Greg Goodman's Mt. Brilliant Farm & Ranch and Lane's End's W. S. Farish. It was Goodman who purchased her SP dam Ithinkisawapudycat (Bluegrass Cat) for $2.2 million in-foal to Constitution at the 2016 Keeneland November Sale.

A half-sister to Canadian champion Spring In The Air (Spring At Last), Ithinkisawapudycat's first offspring was 2016 GI Spinaway S. heroine Sweet Loretta (Tapit). She also produced SP Bridlewood Cat (Street Sense), a 2017 Keeneland September purchase for $750,000 by Bridlewood Farm, who herself foaled a yearling by Authentic, a weanling by Essential Quality and visited Tapit for next year.

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