Market Opens Strong at OBS

by Brian DiDonato and Steve Sherack

With the end of the coronavirus pandemic seemingly in sight, and both buyers and sellers eager to return to some semblance of normalcy, the opener of the Ocala Breeders' Sales Company's March Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training featured borderline euphoric trade from start to finish.

A total of 160 head changed hands Tuesday for gross receipts of $18,482,500 at an average of $115,516 and a median of $62,500. The RNA rate as of Tuesday evening stood at 20%. While exact year-to-year comparisons are somewhat difficult due to OBS policy of adding subsequent post-sale transactions to its official statistics, it's clear that participants found a far different market than they did 12 months ago, when the industry and world at large was right on the precipice of COVID-19 shutting down everything and the sport was still trying to weigh the impact of a high-profile doping scandal.

During last year's corresponding session and afterwards, 145 sales were completed for a combined $12,994,500. The average was $89,617 and the median $50,000. The RNA rate was more than 44% at the immediate conclusion of the session.

“It was a very good day,” OBS Director of Sales Tod Wojciechowski said at the conclusion of Tuesday's session. “It seemed like it held through the entire sale–a lot of horses got moved, with a very low RNA rate. What was great is that we saw horses trade at a lot of different levels. What we saw pre-sale, from people on the grounds, and that pent-up energy, it bore itself out today, for sure… Kudos to the consignors for the quality of horses that they brought. Without them, it's hard to have a sale, and they did a great job of presenting some horses that people really wanted.”

Nine horses sold for between $500,000 and $550,000 Tuesday, with two sharing top billing–a Violence colt (hip 48, :9 4/5) purchased by Spendthrift Farm from Kirkwood Stables, Agent I; and a Munnings filly (hip 216, :10) bought by agent Donato Lanni from Eddie Woods, Agent VIII.

Woods led all consignors during the first day of trade at OBS March, selling six juveniles for $2.127 million. He sold three head for $500,000 or more Tuesday.

“I think the market has been very good all day,” Woods said. “Even for the handy horses. You've got to remember, we didn't have the Koreans [due to the Korean Racing Authority's temporary restriction on foreign-bred racing imports] who took all those horses in the past. The traffic in the barns has been nothing short of amazing–all the way through until this evening. When you went up there this morning at five to 11 a.m. to walk around the corner, you haven't seen that many people up there in years. It's been very vibrant and positive all week.”

OBS President Tom Ventura noted that pinhookers fared significantly better buying in the 2020 yearling market and selling at March than they did in the corresponding cycle in 2019 and 2020.

“The fall was good in that there was activity, and it was steady,” Ventura said. “I think the pinhookers paid less on average–we know what's in our sale, and it's less on average than it was last year. So at least they're playing in a market that was similar and maybe even a little better right now than it was in the fall, versus last year when they were buying [yearlings] in a normal market [in 2019] and selling in the middle of a pandemic. For the market to do well today–even if the prices are not quite what they were two years ago–the money that's invested in these pinhooks is less. We're very happy with the strength and depth of the market, and hopefully we have a similar day tomorrow.”

Japan's Yuji Hasegawa was the session's top buyer, spending $1.5 million total and $500,000 apiece on three juveniles.

“We do have some Japanese buyers on the grounds, but some of the higher-priced ones were bought online,” noted Ventura. “So, not only is the online bidding part of it, but also the veterinarians in Japan are actually able to access the repository information. They need to have someone on the ground scoping the horse and looking at the horse physically, but technology is helping us from that end too.”

Wojciechowski added, “Our representative in Japan has been telling us that for a number of the horses who have come out of our sales, and out of March in particular, the buyers who purchased those horses are really happy with them, and that's driven them back to the sale.”

Among March grads to succeed in Japan is Cafe Pharoah (American Pharoah), a $475,000 purchase by Emmanuel de Seroux's Narvick International on behalf of Koichi Nishikawa two years ago.

Selling continues Wednesday at 11 a.m. Watch live on www.thetdn.com.

Woods Consignment 'Riding' High After Day One at OBS March

With three offerings bringing a half-million dollars or more during the first session of OBS March–a co-topping $550,000 Munnings filly (purchased by Donato Lanni, agent); a $525,000 War Front colt (purchased by Ron Ellis); and a $500,000 Candy Ride colt (purchased by Yuji Hasegawa)–Eddie Woods led all consignors during the first day of trade, selling six juveniles for $2.127 million.

“It was a spectacular day–a fabulous day,” Woods said. “We haven't had one like this in a while.”

He continued, “I'm just grateful to have good clients that give me nice horses to sell.”

The co-topping Munnings filly (hip 216) is out of the winning Lemon Drop Kid mare Show Me, a half-sister to GSW Aegean (Northern Afleet) and SW Light Bringer (Northern Afleet). The $240,000 KEESEP yearling pinhooking prospect glided through an eighth in :10 at the breeze show. She was bred in Kentucky by Nathan McCauley.

“A spectacular filly,” Woods said. “We paid good money for her when we bought her and she grew up and got stronger and prettier. Her work was amazing and her gallop out was great. Everyone just seemed to love her because she was real easy to like.”

The War Front colt (Hip 202), a grandson of power couple's Robert B. and Beverly J. Lewis brilliant Serena's Song, is out of the stakes-winning Street Cry (Ire) mare Serene Melody. The powerful :10 breezer was bred in Kentucky by Lewis Thoroughbred Breeding. War Front's War Decree, winner of the G2 Qatar Vintage S. and G3 Koffy Diamond S., is also out of a Street Cry mare.

“The War Front colt was very backward as a yearling,” Woods said. “They didn't feel like he was going to bring what he should, so we were very lucky to get him from Mr. Lewis. He's trained beautifully all year. He's gotten better and better as we've gone along. We've always thought he was a serious horse.”

The Candy Ride colt (hip 259), a half-brother to last Saturday's game Essex S. winner and last term's GIII Lecomte S. second and GII Risen Star S. third Silver State (Hard Spun), worked in :10. His SW & GSP dam Supreme (Empire Maker) is from the female family of GI Kentucky Derby winner Monarchos. Bred in Kentucky by Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings, hip 259 RNA'd for $95,000 as a KEESEP yearling. The Candy Ride/Empire Maker cross is also responsible for MGISW Separationofpowers and GSW Crewman.

“The Candy Ride colt belonged to Stonestreet,” Woods said. “He's another sad story from a yearling sale where he was very small. He's still not overly big, but his video was amazing, and he did grow and round out. He just hit all the spots.” –@SteveSherackTDN

Kirkwood Comes Out Firing at OBS March

Before heading down to Hallandale with his seven-strong 'Gulfstream Gallop' consignment, Kip Elser's Kirkwood Stables had a bullet to fire in Ocala Tuesday.

Hip 48, a well-related son of Violence consigned by Kirkwood Stables, Agent I, brought a co-session-topping $550,000 from Spendthrift Farm following a bullet :9 4/5 breeze.

“Push-button from the beginning,” said Elser, currently on the mend recovering from back surgery. “The horse told us this is what he wanted to do and said, 'This is how I want you to get me there.'”

Hip 48 was previously a $125,000 KEESEP yearling purchase by Steve Schwartz. He is out of the winning mare Lemon Belle, a half-sister to GI Breeders' Cup Ladies' Classic heroine Unrivaled Belle (Unbridled's Song), who also produced two-time champion Unique Bella (Tapit). Hip 48 was bred in Kentucky by Rock Ridge Thoroughbreds.

Elser and Schwartz, a California-based lawyer, also teamed up to pinhook the recently retired 2020 GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. winner Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man). The $95,000 KEESEP yearling buy brought $625,000 as a Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old after RNA'ing for $55,000 at OBS March in 2018. Mucho Gusto was previously a $14,000 KEEJAN short yearling.

Through the Kirkwood consignment, Schwartz was also represented by hip 114, an Empire Maker colt ($50,000 KEESEP; :10 4/5), who brought $50,000 from Rob Bailes, agent for Marshall Dowell, during the first day of trade. Hip 308, a colt by Blame (:10 4/5) ($100,000 KEESEP yearling), sells Wednesday for the duo.

“Very pleased with the outcome, all credit to Steve Schwartz, who bought the horse and the crew who got him ready and presented him,” Elser said. “Congratulations to Spendthrift.”

Elser added, “I am just very lucky that Steve chooses me to be the passenger on the train.”

Kirkwood's upcoming Gulfstream consignment of non-breezing juveniles includes colts by Gun Runner, More Than Ready, Street Sense and Violence. Elser's outside-of-the-box idea was launched at the 2018 sale.

Graduates of his Gulfstream Gallop program so far include: GII Jim Dandy S. runner-up Liveyourbeastlife (Ghostzapper) ($200,000 '19 FTFMAR); GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity third Defense Wins (Flatter) ($175,000 '19 FTFMAR); and MGSP Splashy Kisses (Blame) ($100,000 '18 FTFMAR).

“Obviously, two very different programs,” Elser said of his OBS March and Gulfstream consignments. “The gallop program was dreamed up by another very brave client. I absolutely believe in the program, but it's not for everyone and it's not for every place. We're looking forward to going to Gulfstream with a very nice group of horses that goes through the gallop program at Gulfstream.” –@SteveSherackTDN

De Seroux Stays Busy

A Cairo Prince colt consigned by Robbie Harris's Harris Training Center LLC, Agent VI as hip 188 garnered a winning bid of $525,000 Tuesday from agent Emmanuel de Seroux of Narvick International, who was active throughout the session.

The :9 4/5 breezer will stay in the U.S. for his racing career, de Seroux said.

“We thought he was a lovely horse; a good mover on the track and very athletic with a nice racing future. We loved the horse,” de Seroux said.

Bred by Cairo Prince's co-owner Namcook Stables and signed for on behalf of another member of that ownership group, Paul Braverman, as a $70,000 KEENOV weanling, the dark bay RNA'd for $110,000 at last year's Fasig-Tipton Select Yearling Showcase. He is the first foal out of MSP Sadie Be Good (Big Drama), a $125,000 OBS March grad herself.

“It's very hard to value that kind of horse because, unfortunately, there are other people who like them as well,” de Seroux said when asked about the price. “We were obviously hoping to get him a little cheaper, but there was some competition.”

In total, de Seroux signed for five head for $1,440,000. He also purchased a $525,000 Liam's Map colt (hip 243) from Pick View LLC, Agent V. Out of SP Starlet O'Hara (Discreetly Mine) and a half to MSP Delia O'Hara (Khozan), the grey worked in :20 3/5.

The agent was not surprised to see such strong competition Tuesday.

“I thought there were a lot of people on the grounds looking at the horses,” he said. “It seems like there's a strong interest in racing at the moment. It was very active on the grounds. There are a lot of buyers here.” —@BDiDonatoTDN

Into Mischief Filly Heading to Japan

Hip 10 was the first horse to breeze during last week's breeze shows when she covered a furlong in a co-quickest :9 4/5, and it was no surprise Tuesday to see the daughter of scorching-hot Into Mischief cause a stir in the ring as well.

Consigned by de Meric Sales, Agent XVII, the Feb. 15 foal was purchased by Japan's Yuji Hasegawa for $500,000.

Out of 19-year-old MSW Island Escape (Petionville), hip 10 is a half to MGSW Tricky Escape (Hat Trick {Jpn}) and GSP Felifran (Discreet Cat). Bred by Machmer Hall, she was bought back for $250,000 at last year's Keeneland September sale.

“We had her in Book 1,” recalled Machmer Hall's Carrie Brogden. “Kyle Wilson, who works for Keeneland, loved two of our Into Mischief fillies. We had six at the time. He picked two for Book 1, our Special Me filly who we ended up selling to Liz Crow for $1.025 million, and this filly. At the time, they were both kind of going against each other, and I think the million-dollar filly just overshadowed this one a little bit. But she had never, ever stepped wrong a day in her life.”

Brogden continued, “Nick de Meric called me after she RNA'd and asked if we'd mind selling a small piece of her and sending her to them to train. Valerie de Meric is my best friend, and I've worked very closely with that family forever, so we said, 'Sure; great.' She went to Valerie and Tristan's to train, and Nick and his partnership owned a minority piece of her. They said from the get-go that she trained like an Into Mischief. They may not be perfect, they may not be 10-feet tall, they may not be this, they may not be that, but they are racehorses through and through. And I think when they come up here, that's what they show.”

Machmer Hall was an early supporter of Into Mischief, having bred one of his first of now countless stakes runners in MGSW $1.4-million earner Vyjack.

The price paid for hip 10 was about what Brogden expected.

“The day after the breeze, once we found out she vetted fine, I texted Valerie and said, 'I have a number in my head. What do you think she can bring?'… I said my number was $500,000–the reserve was significantly lower… I also thought the Japanese might be most interested in her. When she's ready to be a broodmare, it's an outcross pedigree, and the whole family works with Sunday Silence and the Halo line. Her half-sister is by Hat Trick (Jpn) (Sunday Silence). Ultimately, I think she fits well as a racehorse and a broodmare for the Japanese market. I'm thrilled and delighted.”

Hasegawa later landed another :9 4/5 breezing, $500,000 Into Mischief filly in the form of hip 224 from Gene Recio, Agent XI; and a Candy Ride (Arg) colt (hip 259) for the same price out of MSW/GSP Supreme (Empire Maker) from Eddie Woods, Agent XXV.

Hasegawa's three purchases for $1.5 million made him the leading buyer for the session. His prior Stateside purchases include a $1.5-million full-brother to champion Unique Bella (Tapit) at KEESEP '19.

Machmer Hall was also involved in another productive sale early in the session–the Brogdens had a piece of hip 50, a daughter of freshman Mohaymen consigned by Paul Sharp, Agent II.

The $40,000 OBS October buy also breezed in :9 4/5. She's a half to MSW Mother of Dragons (First Dude) out of an Indian Charlie half-sister to MGSP Join in the Dance (Sky Mesa).

“I had Join in the Dance as a 2-year-old with Paul and Sarah Sharp,” Brogden said. “He did not vet even a little bit. He went to the [Fasig-Tipton] Miami sale, he worked lights out, he had eight scopes [but RNA'd for $90,000]. So, we ended up racing him because I couldn't get him sold. He ran second at Churchill Downs and then Arlington, then we sold him to Jake Ballis's group through Kim Valerio.”

Join in the Dance ran second in the 2009 GIII Tampa Bay Derby and ran in that year's GI Kentucky Derby.

“He was our first Kentucky Derby horse, and the closest we've ever gotten to winning it–he ran seventh,” Brogden said. “He was one of the first horses who put Machmer Hall and Paul Sharp Stables in the spotlight when he ran in the Derby.”

Machmer Hall bred hip 50's dam Lets Dance Charlie and sold her for $150,000 as a KEENOV weanling.

“Sarah texted me and said, 'Look, I bought this Mohaymen out of Dance Darling (the dam of Join in the Dance)'s family!' Then we all talked about Join in the Dance and how much he meant to us,” Brogden said. “I asked if I could have a leg of the filly, and she said she thought she was already partnered out and they couldn't do it. So I wished her good luck. She called me back about an hour later and said, 'We think it'll be good luck if you have a leg, so you can come in.' We were thrilled. The first day I saw her was yesterday. She's beautiful; looks like her mother. Sarah and Paul did a great job training her, and I'm really appreciative of Sarah letting me have a piece. We've been friends for a long, long, long time.” —@BDiDonatoTDN

Success 'Stori' For Unified Colt

Stori Atchison's Dark Star Thoroughbreds sold its highest-priced juvenile to date Tuesday when Spendthrift Farm went to $400,000 to take home hip 110. From the first crop of fleet-footed MGSW and 'TDN Rising Star' Unified, the handsome dark bay was clocked in a co-quickest :9 4/5 with a particularly fast gallop-out.

The Jan. 22 foal was just a $10,000 KEENOV weanling and a $19,000 Fasig-Tipton October yearling buy by Atchison.

“He was very balanced and strong and there was a lot of potential to work with,” Atchison said when asked what she liked about the colt as a yearling. “He's been very easy and forward from day one–a monster on the racetrack, but very passive and cool in the barn.”

Atchison said the price tag far exceeded her expectations. Having gotten her start working for Ricky Leppala right out of college, she has been operating Dark Star for nine years now. Her previous top seller was a $340,000 Honor Code colt at last year's OBS June sale.

Atchison is looking forward to bringing the rest of her juvenile crop to market: “I have a really good group coming this year–really good April horses, and even really good June horses that we targeted for a later sale.” —@BDiDonatoTDN

Fast Break for Cruzin' Thoroughbreds

Brayhan Cruz, consigning for the first time under the Cruzin' Thoroughbreds banner, got the new operation off to a blazing start when he sold a filly by Tonalist (hip 40) for $300,000 to Three Amigos in Ocala Tuesday. Cruz purchased the youngster last year for $10,000 at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale.

“It's a big number, but I really think she deserved that and more than that,” Cruz said. “She is really special. She trains really good and she's really smart, which says a lot. She is a really young filly. That's why I was really impressed with how she's performed because she's a really young filly, but with a really mature brain.”

Hip 40 is out of graded-placed La Grange (Curlin) and is a half-sister to stakes-placed Whiskey Bound (Afleet Alex). She worked a furlong in :10 flat during last week's under-tack preview.

“She's a flashy  horse and she looked really great with a good body and a good attitude,” Cruz said of the filly's appeal as a yearling. “She really grabbed my attention.”

The filly only got better at Cruz's Ocala base over the winter.

“She grew up a lot,” he said. “She got better. At the beginning, she was a smart filly, but now with the time, she's gotten smarter. It was very easy for her to understand what we were asking her to do.”

While the March sale marked the debut of Cruzin' Thoroughbreds, Cruz has been consigning under a partner's banner in recent years.

He purchased a filly by Not This Time for $8,000 at the 2019 Keeneland September sale and reoffered her through J R Racing Stables at last year's OBS March sale where she sold to John Sacco for $25,000. Named Dirty Dangle, she won the Woodbine Cares S. and was ninth in the GII Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint.

“I am an exercise rider and that's how everything started,” Cruz said of his involvement in racing. “I rode horses and kept thinking about it and then I got involved in the pinhooking and I liked it. I started to learn about how to buy horses and how to break and train them. And I really liked that. It's a lot of fun and you learn a lot every single day.”

While hip 40 is Cruz's only offering at the March sale, he will offer two more juveniles at the OBS April sale and another two at the OBS June sale.

“We hope to get bigger and bigger in the business and continue making smart decisions,” Cruz said. “And at the same time, making sure people are happy with our horses. The horses don't just end here, I think the career of that filly just started right now.” —@JessMartiniTDN

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Analysis: Declines At Keeneland September Came From The Top Down

Given the amount of uncertainty surrounding the world's economy, and the microcosm of it that is the Thoroughbred marketplace, the 2020 renewal of the Keeneland September Yearling Sale had the widest range of plausible outcomes of any major North American sale in recent memory.

In a best-case scenario, the market hunkers down and keeps up the momentum that has repeatedly set records over the past decade, looking ahead to a future when the horses in the ring are running or breeding, and COVID-19 is hopefully in the books.

In a worst-case scenario, a marketplace already showing signs of being wobbly at the wheels before the pandemic gets abandoned by everyone but the most financially secure, and the bottom drops out before the sale even reaches its second week, bringing back that sinking feeling from the crash of the late 2000s.

What actually transpired was a little bit of both.

The numbers were down across the board, as expected, and someone seeking reasons for long-term concern would have no trouble finding them. The market was polarized to an even greater degree than the already fickle previous years, as evidenced by this year's higher buyback rate, and the overall number of horses sold versus the number cataloged.

However, that polarization also meant the pockets of the market where buyers retreated remained solid-to-strong. The number of seven-figure horses (15) was still the fourth-highest since the bottoming-out of 2010, and comments from both buyers and sellers noted that bidding remained competitive into the later books for the horses that were coveted by that section of the market. This wasn't a callback to the desperate times of the recession when nobody was spending money, but the people that have the money were spending it differently and more carefully.

If your horse had the right pedigree and physical for its spot in the catalog, chances were good it was met with a fair price. Anything less had some hard truths to face, and this dictated the narrative for the sale from the first session.

“I didn't really want to be right, but we expected the market to be down about 30 percent overall, and I think that's about what happened,” said Meg Levy of Bluewater Sales. “It seemed to be all or nothing. I saw more polarization than there has been. I saw big, special, physical colts tend to sell better than fillies overall. Even people with smaller budgets, the target has gotten a lot smaller as far as what everyone's looking for. Whether they have a million dollars or $100,000, they're looking for the same individual.”

This year's 12-day Keeneland September sale finished with 2,346 horses sold for revenues of $238,454,300, down 36 percent from last year's gross of $372,348,400 from 2,974 horses sold.The average and median sale prices were each down 19 percent to $101,643 and $37,000, respectively.

This year's gross marked the lowest return since 2012, when 1,362 yearlings sold for $226,667,500.

It was also the sharpest single-year decline in gross since the drop from 2008 to 2009, when revenues fell 39.6 percent, from $327,199,100 in 2008 to $198,055,200 the following year. The stock market crash of 2008 happened in the middle of that year's sale, and the full effect of the economic recession was felt the following year.

The bulk figures also took a hit in terms of the horses that sold and didn't sell. The RNA rate finished at 29 percent compared with 24 percent last year. Combining outs and RNAs, 42 percent of the horses cataloged in this year's sale did not change hands either in the ring or privately afterward. In 2019, that figure was 36 percent.

The attrition rate is often rather high in the later books, when sellers look at their non-commercial horses and decide to leave them on the farm. One thing that stood out about this year's sale was the “not sold” rate in the select Book 1. Of the 448 horses cataloged over the two-day portion, 49 percent of them were either scratched or didn't meet their reserve, with no private sale recorded thus far on the Keeneland website. Last year's first book, spanning three sessions, only saw 35 percent of its 569 cataloged offerings fail to change hands.

There are plenty of reasons for this shift in the upper marketplace, beyond the obvious ones surrounding the economy and the pandemic.

Sheikh Mohammed Al-Maktoum of Godolphin, a driver of commerce at the top of the market, was absent in person and on the buyer line at this year's sale. Shadwell Estate Co., owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al-Maktoum, was present, and it secured one seven-figure horse, but the operation did not buy with its usual high-end vigor seen in previous years.

Among the big-time buyers that remained, many elected to team up on big horses, instead of fighting amongst themselves. The $2-million sale-topper by Tapit was purchased by Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Robert LaPenta, Gainesway, and Winchell Thoroughbreds, while breeder Stonestreet Farm remained in for a piece after the sale. Earlier, the team of Mike Repole, St. Elias Stable, Gainesway, John Oxley, and Grandview went in together on a $1.2-million Curlin colt.

When a quintet of buyers who are typically reliable competitors from the $250,000-to-$1 million range pool their resources on one horse to the tune of $400,000 each for the $2-million topper – assuming the horse is divided evenly five ways – this leaves potential gaps a rung or two down the ladder on the buyer line. The aforementioned purchases alone turned 10 potential upper-level transactions into two.

This ripple effect was felt all the way into the middle books, when it came to how many hands were going up for horses, and whose hands they were.

“In years past, I might have been on six, seven, eight [horses] before I got one,” said bloodstock agent Marc Wampler, who started shopping in Book 3 for Pocket Aces Racing. “I was going up there and I knew I might not even get my hand up, but I'd eventually get something done. It was probably two or three horses this year.”

Wampler landed two first-crop yearlings for Pocket Aces at this year's Keeneland September sale for a total of $45,000. In previous years, he said either of his purchases could have commanded that amount on their own. With that being said, he felt he'd benefitted from a market that turned cold on a rapidly-expanding group of “have nots.” If there's competition, it will be fierce and deep-pocketed. If there's not, bargains are there to be had.

“On the nice ones, you've just got no hope on them,” he said. “We go up there with a budget, thinking we'll spend X-amount of dollars on certain horses, and we feel like the competition, they just don't even have a budget. They're just going to go get the horse. We all land on the same horses, and that's what we're up against. I've got a cap where other people have the mentality of, 'Whatever it costs, we're bringing it home.'”

Book 1 took some of the sale's steepest dives in terms of average and median sale prices, and that's significant given how much of the sale's overall returns are dictated by those opening sessions. However, the rank-and-file of the catalog held surprisingly steady.

Of the six sessions that comprise Books 4 through 6, four of them posted gains in average sale price and three showed increases in median sale price.

“The second week has been a lot stronger than I'd anticipated,” said Geoffrey Russell, Keeneland's director of sales operations. “I think Books 3, 4, and 5, even into 6, the market has held up well.”

Russell speculated the reason for the relatively solid mid-to-low-end market had to do with the intention of the purchase. A horse bought in the opening sessions is done with residual value in mind, eyeing big returns as a stallion or broodmare prospect that would be almost impossible to recoup strictly on the racetrack. With a lower entry point comes a lower threshold to make money.

On the other side of the transaction, blue-collar breeders and sellers might not have the means to hang on to a horse and race them if the price isn't right in the ring, forcing their hand to move the product and set a lower reserve, even if it's not at the margin they'd like.

“At a certain price, a horse has great value in its return on investment,” Russell said. “Racing is doing well, purse structures are doing well, so there is potential to get a good return. In the middle markets, they're really buying the product to race and get a return on the investment. I think at the moment, we can still do that on the racetrack.”

Even in that level of the market, though, the margin for error in the eyes of the buyer was slim, especially for the pinhook contingent. The group had to reload for whatever 2021 might bring after a 2020 juvenile sale calendar that saw myriad cancellations, postponements, and gnashed teeth due to COVID-19, while also getting into the mind of what a buyer in next year's murky climate might want.

“There's less money in circulation,” said Kip Elser of Kirkwood Stables. “The perceived top on any given day held up very well. It was a real struggle for some farmers to sell their crop, and it was as picky as the market has gotten. It was very difficult for pinhookers to buy horses that a couple years ago, you might have been able to take a little bit of a fault here and a fault there, but pinhookers have to buy looking at the next buyer's criteria, and that has narrowed the field again. There are plenty of good horses with a minor fault here or that that did not reach full value that will be successful racehorses.”

For many at the sale, it seemed as though success came on a case-by-case basis. The numbers were down, but there were victories in some unexpected places that carried at least a few of the defeats.

When the yearling market was watching the juvenile market try to navigate this summer's uncharted waters, anything on the spectrum of expectations for the fall seemed both far-flung and realistic. Even in a market as volatile as it's been in a decade, there was still a mild sense of relief that horses were being traded at all.

“I think if we knew now what we didn't know three weeks ago, that it's going to be off that amount, I think we would have signed up for it all day long,” said Zach Madden of Buckland Sales Agency. “Especially in June and July, when COVID was going nuts, and everything else going on just rolled into one. I don't know how everyone else feels, but I just feel fortunate to be over here, and not just pounding my head against the pavement.”

History has proven that the market is cyclical, and with such a sudden and unexpected shot across the bow like COVID-19 and its complications, it's hard to determine just what the ramifications of the past two weeks will be. A quick and effective vaccine and a steady economy might make this a brief hiccup, or it might be the tipping point for a full-blown market downturn regardless of the world's situation. Or, like this year's sale, it might be a little bit of it all.

Until there's a solid answer, most will remain in a holding pattern.

“I don't think pinhookers have as much money to spend or as much confidence in what next year's market is going to be,” Elser said. “I think if there was real confidence in next year's market, they would have found the money in some fashion, but I don't see brimming confidence in next year. I don't think anybody's predicting disaster, but I don't think people are predicting a big, huge rebound. I think we'll probably hit bottom and start incrementally growing again.”

The post Analysis: Declines At Keeneland September Came From The Top Down appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Delayed Midlantic Sale Starts Monday

TIMONIUM, MD – The Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Olds in Training Sale, postponed from its traditional May date due to the coronavirus pandemic, kicks off its two-day run at the Maryland State Fairgrounds in Timonium Monday morning with bidding scheduled to begin at 11 a.m. A total of 563 juveniles were catalogued for the auction, with 154 listed outs as of Sunday afternoon.

Buyers were out in force on a steamy morning at the sales barns Sunday, with trainers like Barclay Tagg, John Servis, Ron Moquette, Mike Trombetta and Mark Hennig all making the rounds along with bloodstock agents David Ingordo, Dennis O’Neill, Joe Miller, Josh Stevens, Phil Hager, Patrick Lawley Wakelin, Alistair Roden and Patti Miller.

Donato Lanni and owner Michael Lund Petersen who bought the $1.8-million future GI Acorn S. winner Gamine (Into Mischief) at last year’s sale, were out shopping Sunday morning and stopped by the consignment of Bobby Dodd, who sold the record-setting filly in 2019.

Dodd, who returns with a five-horse consignment this year, is hoping for solid sales results despite uncertain conditions around the globe.

“Yesterday traffic [at the barn] was pretty good and today is better,” Dodd said. “I am seeing people today that I didn’t see yesterday, so that’s encouraging. I am hoping and praying it’s going to be good for everybody, but down at OBS [Spring Sale], it was tough. It was either you are all in or not at all. We sold our horses at OBS and just basically got out of the trap, but we didn’t get any cheese. Under the circumstances and the way the world is right now, I think that’s what a person needs to do, unless you are planning on going racing.”

Gamine’s seven-figure price tag was the most ever paid for a horse out of the Midlantic sales ring and highlighted an auction which set records for both gross and average.

“We sold a really nice horse a year ago and everyone is coming back and congratulating us,” Dodd said. “Last year, I really thought that filly was special. Obviously, I didn’t know she was going to bring $1.8 million and I didn’t really know how special she was, but I thought she was a really nice filly. I have some nice horses this year, I don’t honestly think I have one like her. But you never know what’s going to happen-how one is going to bloom.”

Action was constant at Danzel Brendemuehl’s Classic Bloodstock consignment Sunday morning.

“Obviously we are in very difficult times, so it’s very encouraging to see this many people here. We’ve been run off our feet,” Brendemuehl said.

Classic Bloodstock’s main pre-sale attraction is a colt from the first crop of red-hot freshman sire Not This Time (hip 213) who worked in :10 1/5 during last week’s under-tack preview.

“Yesterday we had 60 shows on 213 and probably more–I didn’t record them all because I can’t keep up,” Brendemuehl said.

Asked what she liked about the handsome chestnut, she said simply, “Everything,” before adding, “If you don’t like him, you don’t like horses.”

Brendemuehl purchased the colt for Robert Lambe for $40,000 from Sally Thomas’s consignment at last year’s Fasig-Tipton Midlantic October Yearling Sale.

“I keep my mares with Sally in Kentucky, so when Sally tells me she likes a horse, I listen,” Brendemuehl said. “My client and I went to get lunch at Ryleigh’s Oyster Bar and all of a sudden there were a bunch of outs and he was coming up, so I called Peter Penny at the Fasig office and told him he had to bid on the horse for me. So we bought him and we named him Mr. Penny. He’s been my favorite horse all year long.”

While declining to speculate on what the strength of the market will be in Timonium, Kip Elser said there were plenty of shoppers around his Kirkwood Stables consignment this weekend.

“Traffic is right about normal-certainly no less,” Elser said. “What that translates to for tomorrow and the next day, I couldn’t begin to say, but so far we are right on par with the last couple of years as far as traffic.”

Elser had planned to offer a group of horses who would gallop at the under-tack show ahead of the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale in March, but with that boutique auction cancelled, the group all turned in quarter-mile works last week in Timonium.

“The [Gulfstream] sale was cancelled and the normal progression is that those horses would be breezing by this time of year,” Elser said. “So that’s what we did. We put more bottom in them. We were actually considering going three-eighths here with all of them and just showing the logical progression to get to the races. But the way the track is laid out here, I didn’t think coming right out of the paddock where it is gave them enough of a warm-up to go three-eighths. So we went quarters and galloped out. They were very consistent and did what they were supposed to do. And I hope that people see it as one more step on the way to getting to the races. This would have been our third year doing it. I still like the idea and the program just as much.”

While the recent OBS Spring Sale suffered declines, consignor David Scanlon is looking for increased action in Maryland as buyers adapt to market conditions and take advantage of the geography of an auction held within a few hours drive of several racetracks.

“I am highly optimistic [about the sale],” Scanlon said. “We brought more up here, I thought maybe with the little bit later start, it would give everyone time to get going. After seeing one sale already happen, I think people are going to see it’s a buyers market. Plus, I think because of the location of the sale, people have been able to drive here. So I think it’s going to be ok-as good as it can be everything considered.”

During last year’s Midlantic sale, 326 horses sold for $29,374,000 for an average of $90,104 and a median of $43,000.

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