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Prat Chooses Angel of Empire as His Derby Mount

It was likely a difficult decision, but Flavien Prat has chosen to ride GI Arkansas Derby winner Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) over GII Louisiana Derby winner Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) in this year's GI Kentucky Derby.

The news was confirmed by trainer Brad Cox, who said he has received assurances from Prat and his agent Brad Pegram that the French-born riding star will be aboard Angel of Empire in the Derby.

“Yes, Prat will ride Angel of Empire in the Derby,” Cox said via text. “We're excited that Flavien is sticking with Angel of Empire. If we can duplicate his run in the Arkansas Derby, we believe that it would be an effort that would make him very competitive in the Kentucky Derby. We're looking forward to May 6.”

After Cox used four different jockeys in Angel of Empire's first five races, he landed on Prat for the Apr. 1 Arkansas Derby and the result was a 4 1/4-length win. The Pennsylvania-bred could be the second choice in the Derby behind Forte (Violence).

Prat will also ride likely GI Kentucky Oaks favorite Wet Paint (Blame) for Cox.

Kingsbarns, who is trained by Todd Pletcher, is undefeated in three starts. After using Luis Saez and Antonio Gallardo, Pletcher went to Prat for the Louisiana Derby and the result was a 3 1/2-length front-running win.

Reached by text, Pletcher said he has yet to secure a rider for Kingsbarns, but several top jockeys should be available.

The post Prat Chooses Angel of Empire as His Derby Mount appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 20: Upheaval in the Ranks

A new kingpin graces the No. 1 slot after a wild, final weekend of 100-point preps. The rankings below are independent from the “Road to the Derby” leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths, with several horses included here who are currently below the cut.

1) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-4-1-2, $884,200. Last Start: 1st Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 160.

Practical Move leapfrogs into the No. 1 spot because his well-executed GI Santa Anita Derby score (100 Beyer Speed Figure) asserts him as the no-nonsense “momentum” horse heading to Louisville. In winning the strongest of the three nine-furlong preps run Saturday, this son of Practical Joke ($90,000 RNA KEESEP; $230,000 OBSAPR) pressured the field into submission, and he has not yet indicated he is close to bottoming out, stamina-wise. His stay-in-touch stalking style and obvious comfort level at being covered up on the inside are highly desirable traits for a Derby contender.

Practical Move won the two fastest 1 1/16-miles Derby qualifying stakes in 2022-23 (1:41.65 in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity and 1:42.01 GII San Felipe S.). His winning time of 1:48.69 in the Santa Anita Derby is also quickest of all the nine-furlong preps.

Unhurried at the break, jockey Ramon Vazquez secured an inside run behind a blazing :22.30 opening quarter in the Santa Anita Derby. He chipped away at the margin down the backstretch, and for the third graded stakes in a row, Practical Move rode the rail to menace the pacemaker. Seizing the lead while still in hand before the quarter pole, the even-money Practical Move then fended off a determined Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby) to win by a nose while keeping a wide-and-driving Skinner comfortably at bay a half-length back in third.

Practical Move has yet to display an overdriven “Wow!” gear late in the lane. But being able to crank up the torque without being flashy about it can certainly earn a blanket of roses on Derby day.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising Star' . O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 7-6-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 190.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) goes into the Derby as the East Coast kingpin and reigning divisional champ. But while Practical Move ended his prep season with an exclamation point, Forte's final prep resonated more like a question mark, because at 1-5 odds he was expected to deliver a shellacking to s soft-on-paper GI Florida Derby field.

Yes, this son of Violence did win with his ears pricked after giving himself too much work to do. And his loping, 4 ½-furlong move did not come at the expense of jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., having to drill this colt in order to power past the pesky Mage (Good Magic). Five-sixteenths out, Forte looked beaten. But once he got rolling, Forte uncoiled on cue, giving off a “Don't worry, I've got this!” vibe to win by a measured length.

The 20-horse Derby will be different. It was a tactical revelation to hear Ortiz say post-race that “We went to the first turn and those horses cleared me and I said, 'Oh my God.' I thought he could clear them and he didn't do it.”

Forte just might have the most devastating late-race kick in the Derby. But if he can't attain good early positioning, he won't have a stable launching pad to set up his proven far-turn run.

3) HIT SHOW (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Actress, by Tapit) O/B-Gary & Mary West (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $404,375. Last Start: 2nd in GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

Three horses were bobbing heads at the wire of the GII Wood Memorial. Although this homebred for Gary and Mary West ended up second, he ran the best race in terms of boosting his chances in the Derby.

This Candy Ride (Arg) colt went off as the 17-10 favorite, and although he didn't challenge for the lead from post 12, he was in the hunt five wide on the clubhouse bend before taking up a stalking spot while fifth, about five lengths off a moderate first two quarters in :24.88 and :24.12.

The cadence quickened through a :23.88 third quarter, and Hit Show was on the prowl three deep through the turn. He was bottled up off the bend, had to be switched off the heels in upper stretch, then both gave and took some light slam-dancing while sparring in the middle of a three-way go through the final furlong.

The hedge here is that this May 9 foal can build off that effort, especially when you consider Hit Show has already won at nine furlongs (in the GIII Withers. S.). In addition, his Beyers show a nice, ascending arc of 60-71-82-91-93 through five career tries.

4) VERIFYING (c, Justify–Diva Delite, by Repent) O-Westerberg, Mrs John Magnier, Jonathan Poulin, Derrick Smith & Michael Tabor; B-Hunter Valley & Mountmellick Farm (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISP, 6-2-2-0, $489,900. Last start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 54.

Verifying ($775,000 KEESEP), a Justify colt who will not hit his third birthdate until five days after the Derby, picked a stellar time to run his breakthrough “coming out” race when second, beaten a nose, in the GI Blue Grass S.

A half-brother to 2019 champion older dirt distaffer Midnight Bisou, Verifying broke forwardly but conceded the lead to an 86-1 sacrificial pacemaker. Tyler Gaffalione let that long shot roll onto the back straight while sitting second with his 2.3-1 mount, then tightened that open-length gap 5 ½ furlongs out.

Cognizant of 'TDN Rising Star' and 1.2-1 favorite Tapit Trice (Tapit) making a bold move to his outside, Verifying took control at the five-sixteenths pole. Gaffalione braced for the quarter-pole challenge of Tapit Trice by deftly floating that favorite out to the five path.

The two then threw down in a length-of-stretch slugfest that included some inconsequential bumping and brushing, with Verifying twice clawing back the lead before Tapit Trice snatched it away by a neck at the wire. The two co-earned 99 Beyers.

Verifying has won twice, but never at the stakes level. He had enough speed to break his maiden over six furlongs at the Spa last summer, and also took down a key-race allowance going a mile at Oaklawn in January, out of which the second- and third-place horses came back to win their next starts as favorites.

5) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star'. O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland Apr. 8. Kentucky Derby Points: 150.

Tapit Trice would not be denied in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. | Coady Photography

There's a good chance 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice is evolving into a powerhouse with a knack for extricating himself from tight predicaments and finding a way to win at all costs.

But his slow-to-go nature marks this son of Tapit as a “heart attack” type of horse who scares the daylights out of his backers by constantly having to be pumped on for run by rider Luis Saez before he accomplishes his task by only as much as it takes to win narrowly.

That was the way Tapit Trice scored in the GIII Tampa Bay Derby (a crew that will not yield any other Kentucky Derby qualifiers), and it was a similar story in Saturday's tougher Blue Grass S.

After hustling this burly gray from the one post, Saez had to throttle back before the field passed the mile marker. The colt settled to seventh entering the backstretch, got guided outside, and was already on the march six furlongs from the wire.

Tapit Trice was jointly third by the half-mile pole, and as the lead changed in front of him, he went relentlessly after Verifying off the turn. They raced in lockstep while exchanging love taps and the lead, but Tapit Trice had more at the finish.

Despite the victory, the overall takeaway is that Tapit Trice's loop-the-group tactics simply don't align with the profiles of recent Derby winners. Eight of the last nine Derbies have been won by horses racing either right up front or just off the lead. Thus, despite winning his last two stakes in respectable, off-the-tailgate fashion, Tapit Trice takes a haircut in the rankings, dropping from third to fifth.

6) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (KY); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

This 3-for-3 son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 FTSAUG; $800,000 FTFMAR) led at every call through moderate fractions to win the GII Louisiana Derby (95 Beyer) by 3 ½ lengths.

Although light on experience race-wise, Kingsbarns is developing a businesslike, no-drama demeanor. Ranked by foaling date (Jan. 17), he's also the oldest of the Top 20 competitors.

This colt doesn't necessarily need the lead. But this Todd Pletcher trainee is in his comfort zone either setting the pace or forcing the issue from just behind the leaders.

He's also already checked the “overcomes adversity” box. As the 3-1 favorite in his one-turn-mile Gulfstream debut, Kingsbarns was unbothered by being smothered at the rail in tight quarters on the turn. He later got blocked badly at the head of the lane before coming up with a decisive, punch-through run that resulted in a 1 3/4-length victory (74 Beyer).

Race number two didn't require as much effort, but it was useful. In a mile and 40 yards first-level allowance at Tampa, Kingsbarns let a 37-1 shot open up a long lead, then reeled him in with ease to finish 7 ¾ lengths ahead of the pack (85 Beyer).

7) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (KY); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 45.

Reincarnate hasn't been to the winner's circle since his Jan. 8 GIII Sham S. score, and his Beyers are drifting in the wrong direction at age three (95-90-86). But I wouldn't discount him as a rebounding, front-end factor in the Derby.

This large-framed, long-striding $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic has never been off the board from seven starts, all at a mile or longer.

Reincarnate has twice flown to Oaklawn since Feb. 25 rom his Santa Anita training base, running third in both the GII Rebel S. (with a troubled trip) and the GI Arkansas Derby (ideal stalking setup but failed to fire).

At somewhere in the 25-1 range, I'd have a hard time excluding Reincarnate from Derby exotics, although his lack of a positive-momentum final prep precludes keying on him to win.

8) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'. O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm is the highest-ranked Top 20 contender who is outside looking in, points-wise. He's currently parked at No. 26 on the qualifying list with 40 points and needs help from defectors.

This Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred rates so highly because it's unlikely we've seen his best effort at age three. Whether his prime-time bust-out comes 3 ½ weeks from now in the Derby or 3 ½ months from now as a later developer is the question.

Remember, his sire, Gun Runner, ran third as the 2016 Derby, finished on the board in a series of graded stakes into the summer and fall, but didn't burst onto the scene until after the Breeders' Cup, when he won the GI Clark H. (and seven of his eight final races against top-class competition).

Disarm has been at a tactical disadvantage trying to pull back lone-speed pacemakers twice in 2023, first in an allowance at Oaklawn Feb. 19, and again, with inside trip trouble, in the Louisiana Derby.

9) ANGEL OF EMPIRE (c, Classic Empire–Armony's Angel, by To Honor And Serve) O-Albaugh Family Stables LLC; B-Forgotten Land Investment Inc & Black Diamond Equine Corp (PA); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $32,000 RNA wlg '20 KEENOV, $70,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-4-1-0, $1,069,375. Last Start: 1st in the GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 154.

Angel of Empire dominated the GI Arkansas Derby | Coady Photography

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) sails into the Derby off back-to-back, come-from-behind wins at nine furlongs in the GII Risen Star S. (89 Beyer) and Arkansas Derby (94 Beyer). This two-time sales entrant ($32,000 RNA KEENOV; $70,000 KEESEP) will seek to become the third Pennsylvania-bred to win the Derby, after Lil E. Tee (1992) and Smarty Jones (2004).

“I think he's capable of winning [the Derby],” trainer Brad Cox said on the Apr. 6 TDN Writers' Room podcast. “We have to get better and we may have to have Forte stub his toe in order to beat him. But 20-horse field, it's a demanding, challenging race, bottom line. If you make the field that's why you go, so many things can happen.”

10) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun–Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

If you discount his rough-trip fifth debuting at five furlongs way back on June 23 and his seventh behind Forte in the key-race GI Breeders' Futurity S.(when Two Phil's got bounced around at the break), this is a colt with four wins (two at Grade III) and a second and third in two other graded stakes.

His 101-Beyer score in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks was a sizable 15-point jump off his previous effort in the Risen Star S. at Fair Grounds. That's a stout number, but it's so far removed from his normal range that it leads to speculation about whether triple digits on the Beyer scale are sustainable for Two Phil's.

Versatility and a “do your job” attitude are the twin strengths of Two Phil's. He's won sprinting and routing over fast dirt, slop and now Tapeta, and you have to admire how he's been in it to win it at least until the upper stretch every time he's raced.

11) MANDARIN HERO (JPN) (c, Shanghai Bobby–Namura Nadeshiko {Jpn}, by Fuji Kiseki {Jpn}) O-Hiroaki Arai; B-Hirano Bokujo (Jpn); T-Terunobu Fujita. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-4-2-0, $386,854. Last start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

Mandarin Hero (Jpn) (Shanghai Bobby), victorious in four of five starts in Japan (only loss by a neck), popped with an impressive 8-1 runner-up try in the Santa Anita Derby. But the 40 qualifying points he garnered (24th) are still shy of a certain Derby berth.

His sharp United States debut would have been good enough to win the Santa Anita Derby in most years. Mandarin Hero broke fifth, tucked into the two path around the first turn, then had to wait for room into the far turn. Committed to inside passage by jockey Kazushi Kimura, he patiently waited some more, then dove through at the fence off the turn.

In upper stretch Mandarin Hero had his momentum briefly stalled as Kimura repositioned him off the favorite's heels. But Mandarin Hero still maintained his focus on Practical Move even while a fresh rival, Skinner (Curlin), was bearing down outside. This colt was getting to the winner; they were separated by a nose and co-earned 100 Beyers.

12) MAGE (c, Good Magic–Puca, by Big Brown) O-OGMA Investments, LLC, Ramiro Restrepo, Sterling Racing LLC and CMNWLTH; B-Grandview Equine (KY); T-Gustavo Delgado. Sales history: $235,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $290,000 2yo '22 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $247,200. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby at Gulfstream Apr. 1. Kentucky Derby Points: 50.

The eye-catching, far-turn move by Mage ($235,000 KEESEP; $290,000 EASMAY) was slightly premature in the Florida Derby. But it catapulted him to the lead, and he showed he knew what to do to defend his position once he hit the front, sharply repulsing a bid from the more experienced Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

All the while Forte was taking dead aim. Even though this son of Good Magic had little left to stave off the 1-5 fave, Mage's effort still rates as impressive considering his lack of seasoning (just three races) and the fact that that no horse has finished that close to the champ in three other races over the last six months.

If a Forte-vs.-Mage rivalry continues to percolate, you can trace it back to a grudge match their dams started. Mage is out of the Bill Mott-trained Puca, who won her only stakes race in a $75,000 turfer at Suffolk Downs in 2017. She scored by 1 ¾ lengths over the Michael Matz-trained Queen Caroline, who would go on to foal Forte.

Potentially Rounding Out the Starting Gate..

13) Skinner (Curlin)
Skinner ($40,000 KEESEP; $510,000 OBSAPR) stamped himself as an outside Louisville threat who figures to be flying under the radar, odds-wise. In the Santa Anita Derby, this noticeably maturing son of Curlin broke well but was asked to settle second from last by Victor Espinoza. Skinner started to pick off midpack targets with a purposeful move three-eighths out, then swung four wide for the drive. He briefly brushed with a tiring 54-1 shot, dug in, and stayed on decently. Skinner ended up beaten half a length by Practical Move and Mandarin Hero, earning a 99 Beyer that leaves room for improvement. Trainer John Shirreffs orchestrated Giacomo's 50-1 Kentucky Derby win in 2005 off a fourth-place try in the Santa Anita Derby. At No. 21 on the qualifying list, Skinner needs one defection to make the cut.

14) Lord Miles (Curlin)
Lord Miles outran his 59-1 odds in a shocker of a score in the Wood Memorial. Is he a one-race wonder, or just starting to blossom? He broke forwardly, pressed the pacemaker, then backed off to fourth on the back straight. It looked for a few strides like he was starting to lose touch into the far bend, but Paco Lopez got him going again, and by the head of the lane this Vesgo Racing Stable homebred was hunkered down and not at all deterred by the rambunctious jostling of a furious three-way stretch battle. He won the bob at the finish by a nose, and the win represented a 14-point Beyer jump from 79 to 93. Realistically, this year's Derby projects to require a triple-digit Beyer to win, meaning Lord Miles must deliver another lifetime best against the toughest competition and over the longest distance of his career.

15) Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits)
Derma Sotogake wired the G2 UAE Derby. But that doesn't necessarily mean this ¥18,000,000 JRHJUL yearling will be committed to seeking the lead in the Derby. “We didn't exactly plan to go straight to the lead but he broke well,” said trainer Hidetaka Otonashi. Added jockey Christophe Lemaire, “He can break a little slowly [but he] travelled nicely on the lead and he relaxed for me down the backstretch. He was still moving smoothly for me as we came into the home stretch and once I pressed the button he was very impressive and I could enjoy the finish on him.” The first four horses across the finish barely changed positions for the bulk of that race, although Derma Sotogake cracked them all while still in hand before widening his margin under light encouragement.

16) Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg})
This $25,000 KEESEP colt whose dam, Eblouissante, is a half-sister to Hall-of-Famer Zenyatta is listed as “possible” by Keeneland for the GIII Lexington S. on Saturday. Confidence Game does not need qualifying points to attain a Derby berth, so the 1 1/16-miles prep would serve as a true tune-up effort. Otherwise he'd be heading to Louisville off a 10-week gap since his 94-Beyer win in the Rebel S., a wide-and-driving score that was aided by a pace meltdown.

17) Rocket Can (Into Mischief)
This Into Mischief gray ($245,000 FTSAUG RNA) safely qualifies with 60 points and is already stabled at Churchill, but his Derby status hasn't been solidified. He was a punchless fourth as the beaten fave in the Arkansas Derby, after which trainer Bill Mott said Rocket Can “gives you the feeling there's a little more there, but he's just not quite giving it all to you yet.” This colt proved late at age two and early into his sophomore season that he can capably stalk to stay within striking distance of leaders, and he doesn't shy from stretch fights. After winning the GIII Holy Bull S. back on Feb. 4, Rocket Can was a best-of-the-rest second behind divisional champ Forte. But he still hasn't made the convincing leap in Beyers, regressing from a 91 in the GII Fountain of Youth S. to an 86 at Oaklawn.

18) Sun Thunder (Into Mischief)
This late-running Into Mischief colt ($400,000 KEENOV; $495,000 RNA FTSAUG) has a second, two fourths, and a fifth in graded stakes this year, and his 54 qualifying points are enough for a Derby berth. But trainer Ken McPeek was undecided on his starting status as of Sunday, the day after Sun Thunder ran 6 ½ lengths off the winner in the Blue Grass S. Sun Thunder still hasn't won beyond the maiden ranks, but his Dec. 31 Oaklawn score was a capable effort despite minor trip trouble. His company lines aren't soft either; he caught some peaking horses earlier in the winter and was up against the grain of a speed-rewarding track on Louisiana Derby day.

19) Jace's Road (Quality Road)
'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road barely makes the cut as one of three horses currently tied with 45 qualifying points. He enjoys a $25,850 advantage in non-restricted stakes earnings, which is the tiebreaker. A $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, he faded to third in the late stages of the Louisiana Derby after pressing (but never truly threatening) all-the-way winner Kingsbarns. He took moderate pressure without any quit when wiring the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, but has been winless in two starts since.

20) Continuar (Jpn) (Drefong)
The 2-for-5 Continuar (Jpn) accepted an invitation to Churchill for earning 40 points in the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series when he won the Cattleya S. at Tokyo last Nov. 26. At age three, this ¥70,000,000 JRHJUL yearling was fifth in the G3 Saudi Derby. He then improved to third in the UAE Derby, but he was still beaten 10 lengths by winner Derma Sotogake after stalking that pacemaker until the home straight. Trainer Yoshito Yahagi is best known stateside for his two winners in the 2021 Breeders' Cup at Del Mar: Marche Lorraine (Jpn) at 49-1 in the GI Distaff and Loves Only You (Jpn) at 4-1 in the GI Filly and Mare Turf.

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The Week In Review: April Fool In The Derby Future Wager Pool?

Approaching the four-week mark to the GI Kentucky Derby, trainer Todd Pletcher has three highly ranked contenders, and the most impressive thing about that collective is that the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has guided them through undefeated 2023 campaigns to date, meticulously mapping out their schedules to avoid overlap.

Divisional champ Forte (Violence), now 6-for-7, won Saturday's GI Florida Derby with a mad-dash flourish. 'TDN Rising Star' Tapit Trice (Tapit), the winner of the GIII Tampa Bay Derby, will be heavily favored to improve his 3-for-4 record with another score in Saturday's GI Blue Grass S. The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns (Uncle Mo) heads to Kentucky after wiring the GII Louisiana Derby.

Latching on to a proven trainer and the prospect of getting behind the “headline horses,” bettors accordingly pounded those three Pletcher trainees in Pool 6 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW).

Unlike pools 2 through 5 earlier this season that closed on Sunday evenings after each weekend's prep stakes had been run, this final version of the KDFW added speculative intrigue by closing at 6 p.m. Saturday, prior to the runnings of the Florida Derby and GI Arkansas Derby.

Forte closed as the 5-2 favorite, while Tapit Trice and Kingsbarns attracted 11-1 action as the co-second choices.

Forte being favored is no shock. But that prohibitively low price bettors jumped at Apr. 1 makes you wonder if some April fools got pranked in the futures pool by locking in a return that could be lower than Forte's actual mutuel on Derby day.

For perspective, only three times in the past 14 years has the Derby favorite been sent postward at 5-2 or lower odds on race day. Even the two recent, highly popular Triple Crown winners–American Pharoah and Justify–didn't get that heavily backed in their respective Derbies. Both went off at 2.9-1.

And the kicker is that bettors were willing to accept that apparently underlaid 5-2 price on Forte before knowing the results of the Florida Derby. Nor did they know how the colt came out of the race (reportedly fine).

But considering the historical starting prices in the Derby itself, do those ticket-holders still think they got good value on their KDFW investments? Presumably, they'll spend the next four weeks anxiously awaiting the Derby post draw, which presents an entirely unavoidable random wrinkle that will one way or the other affect Forte's Derby-day mutuel odds and his chances in the race itself.

As for the other two Pletcher-trained KDFW second choices, Tapit Trice at 11-1 has decent upside if he runs a monster race at Keeneland.

Tapit Trice | SV Photography

Kingsbarns, however, is likely to go off higher than his 11-1 KDFW price in the actual Derby mutuels.

Dropping down to 13-1 in Pool 6 of the KDFW, we find another seemingly underlaid surprise: Derma Sotogake (Jpn) (Mind Your Biscuits).

This 4-for-8 winner of the G2 UAE Derby could be part of the advancing wave of Japan-based horses rapidly making their marks in elite global races. But I doubt this colt will be going off lower than that ambitious KDFW price when he starts in Louisville. Since 2000, 12 winners of the UAE Derby have gone on to compete in the Kentucky Derby. The best finish among them was sixth (along with two DNF's and a 20th-place try).

Practical Move at 14-1 represents the first sniff of KDFW Pool 6 value.

For the past month, this son of Practical Joke has been ranked as the No. 2 contender on the TDN Derby Top 12 list, and he's either going to be the favorite or the second favorite in Saturday's GI Santa Anita Derby. A win or a smart second sets up this colt to peak in Louisville, and if that's the result, Practical Move will start as the second or third favorite in the Derby mutuels, somewhere in the 5-1 to 10-1 range.

But it's the other major contender in the Santa Anita Derby–Geaux Rocket Ride (Candy Ride {Arg})–whose overlaid 33-1 KDFW Pool 6 closing odds stand out like a beacon of opportunity.

For that juicy price, you get a 2-for-2, sped-centric prospect who has shown promise enough to be ranked at No. 4 within the TDN Top 12.

Geaux Rocket Ride will vie for favoritism with Practical Move on Saturday, and his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, is known for not embarking upon the Derby path unless he is confident he has a colt with a realistic shot of winning on the first Saturday in May.

Kingsbarns | Ryan Thompson

Mandella hasn't started a horse in the Kentucky Derby since 2004. But in 2019 he was set to start the deserving favorite, Omaha Beach, before having to scratch days before the Derby when the colt was discovered to have an entrapped epiglottis.

Parked much, much deeper down the list among the 39 individual horses and the 17-1 “all others” field option for KDFW Pool 6 is one final, tantalizing long shot worth mentioning: The Brad Cox-trained Slip Mahoney at an astounding 130-1.

He's an Arrogate colt out of an A.P. Indy mare who will be among the favorites in Saturday's GII Wood Memorial S. at Aqueduct. Slip Mahoney was slow from the gate and second best with a big late move from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

His distance-oriented pedigree should appreciate the stretch out to nine furlongs from three one-turn miles. And if he runs well enough to accrue the points (he's currently No. 31 with 20 on the qualifying list), bettors will likely send him off exponentially lower in the Louisville mutuels.

The post The Week In Review: April Fool In The Derby Future Wager Pool? appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now

We've taken the plunge into the deeper end of the prep pool for the GI Kentucky Derby. Five nine-furlong stakes each awarding 100 qualifying points are scheduled over the next two Saturdays, after which this list will expand to the Top 20.

1) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame) 'TDN Rising
Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt, MGISW, 6-5-0-0, $1,833,230. Last start: 1st GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 90.

The further 'TDN Rising Star' and 2-year-old champ Forte goes in his sophomore campaign, the more favorably he compares to Nyquist, who was the last winner of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile (and only the second Juvenile winner ever) to score in the Kentucky Derby. Each was put on a two-prep path at age three, consisting of an early March stakes victory followed by a try in the GI Florida Derby.

Where they differ, though, is in the level of difficulty of their respective Florida Derbies. In 2016, the connections of Nyquist took a gamble by shipping their colt cross-country from his California base to chase a $1-million Florida sales-grad bonus offered by Fasig-Tipton. Despite being the undefeated 2-year-old champ, the 6-5 Nyquist wasn't even favored in the Florida Derby (Mohaymen was at 4-5). But Nyquist wired the field commandingly, cementing favoritism in Louisville.

Forte, by contrast, will race over a Gulfstream surface over which he's already won emphatically, and he will be getting a considerable break in terms of competition. The draw for Saturday's Florida Derby landed him in post 11, but none of the 11 horses entered against him have ever been ranked in TDN's Top 12, and only one has ever won a stakes.

Beyond the obstacle of an outer post in a large field, the race, on paper at least, gives off a “damned if he does, damned if he doesn't” vibe that the champ will be up against.

If Forte trounces the field, it'll be reasoned he was supposed to beat up on such an overmatched crew based on his established gravitas as the divisional kingpin. The tall, lanky stalker has pasted nearly all comers over a six-race career that dates to last May 27 and includes only one forgivable loss in a Saratoga sprint stakes. None of the visual takeaways of his stretch runs offer evidence that he won't be able to handle pressure while negotiating longer distances.

If Forte runs well but narrowly loses, the result will likely elicit a positive-leaning connotation, along the lines that he wasn't fully cranked for the effort with his main goal being four weeks out.

But if Forte finishes off the board with no excuse? Yikes. He'll suddenly be perceived as vulnerable for the first time and the proverbial barn door will be knocked off its hinges by the crush of contenders rushing in to fill the Derby void.

2) PRACTICAL MOVE (c, Practical Joke–Ack Naughty, by Afleet Alex) O-Leslie & Pierre Jean Amestoy & Roger Beasley; B-Chad Brown & Head of Plains Partners (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $90,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $434,200. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 60.

They don't drape a blanket of roses atop your shoulders on the first Saturday in May for looking like the most improved colt on the Derby contenders list at the end of March. But if they did, Practical Move would be this year's ideal fit.

This son of Practical Joke's progression toward the Apr. 8 GI Santa Anita Derby gives the impression of an ocean wave that did not at first appear menacing when in the distance, but now that it's nearing a crest, look out.

This Tim Yakteen trainee started five times in a four-month span at age two and his form in those races might have been shaded by running into some fairly accomplished foes while encountering repeated trip trouble.

A 10-1 upset in the GII Los Alamitos Futurity closed out this robust-framed colt's juvenile campaign. But Practical Move opened eyes with a 12-point Beyer jump when winning the GII San Felipe S. Mar. 4, uncorking a professional inside run despite enduring early bumping, a rank horse on the clubhouse turn, and a momentum stall on the far bend while jockey Ramon Vazquez patiently waited for an opening.

If you want a Derby horse who rates as “flashy,” look elsewhere. But if you lean toward a level-headed prospect who is quick enough to prowl behind strong fractions while having enough stamina to stick around late, Practical Move just might be your type.

3) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW,4-3-0-1, $100,150. Last start: 1st GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby at Tampa Bay Downs Mar. 11. KY Derby Points: 50.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Friday, breezing a half-mile in :49.82 (11/31) nearly two weeks after closing with a desperate rush to win the GIII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby (88 Beyer).

From several perspectives–his dawdling break, the questionable quality of the competition, the four-point Beyer regression off his previous win–the Tampa excursion was not an artistic triumph for Tapit Trice.

Yet considering that this colt overcame self-inflicted trip adversity and closed capably through a final sixteenth clocked in an impressive :6.14, Tapit Trice remains poised to put forth a more polished version of the athletic prowess he displayed in his first three career races. That chance will come in his final Derby tune-up, the Apr. 8 GI Toyota Blue Grass S. at Keeneland.

Only one horse has ever parlayed wins in both the Tampa and Kentucky Derbies–Street Sense in 2007. Street Sense, like Tapit Trice is being pointed to do, also attempted the Blue Grass S. in the interim. He was second, losing by a nose in a four-horse photo.

With Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) never firing when sixth as the beaten 3-2 favorite in this past Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby, it appears that Tapit Trice is now the best Kentucky Derby shot for jockey Luis Saez.

4) GEAUX ROCKET RIDE (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Beyond Grace, by Uncle Mo) O-Pin Oak Stud LLC; B-OXO Equine LLC (KY); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $350,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL. Lifetime Record: GSP, 2-1-1-0, $120,200. Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita Mar. 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

The GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby is shaping up as a showdown between the Nos. 2 and 4 headliners on this list. While Practical Move brings experience, this son of Candy Ride looms as a speed-centric threat who could have a decided advantage in a short field if the race comes up light on entries.

Geaux Rocket Ride was narrowly favored in the betting for the GII San Felipe S. and he gamely forced the issue on the front end of a high-tempo pace yet still managed to stay on determinedly in the final furlong to hold second even when it was clear that Practical Move had him beat.

In just two lifetime starts, Geaux Rocket Ride has paired 92 and 96 Beyers, and his transition out of a MSW sprint wiring to an off-Lasix stakes route was about as smooth as his connections could have hoped for. Note that the second- and fourth-place runners out of his Jan. 29 victory both came back to win their next starts, lending credibility to that sizzling debut.

Geaux Rocket Ride worked six furlongs in 1:13 flat Sunday at Santa Anita (2/6), after which his Hall-of-Fame trainer, Richard Mandella, quipped, “The rockets are ready to fire.”

5) DISARM (c, Gun Runner–Easy Tap, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-1, $290,350. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Disarm returns to the Top 12 off his runner-up try in the Louisiana Derby and I'm taking an ambitious gamble by leapfrogging him all the way up to No. 5 considering this colt hasn't won a race in nearly nine months.

Last summer, trainer Steve Asmussen said he had “high expectations” for Disarm, adding that in a June 19 third-place debut at Churchill, the colt “didn't do much correctly first time out, just because he's a big boy.”

But Asmussen expressed faith that this son of Gun Runner (out of a Tapit mare) would “stretch out beautifully” over time. Unfortunately, that didn't happen during his juvenile season, because after a blowout MSW win at the Spa over seven furlongs, Disarm was shelved in September for undisclosed reasons. After a second-place effort going a mile in an Oaklawn allowance Feb. 19 for his 2023 debut, he resurfaced at Fair Grounds Saturday.

Trying to chase a lone-speed pacemaker getting away with soft splits, Disarm was at a tactical disadvantage. His trip was further compromised by being caught behind the heels of a stablemate for most of his inside journey, and his stride stalled at several points during the race. Yet he still closed with purpose and earned a 90 Beyer for the effort.

Being up against the grain of a speed-favoring track also hurt his chances in the Louisiana Derby. There were 11 dirt races on the Mar. 25 card at Fair Grounds. Four were won in wire-to-wire fashion, six were won by pace-pressers who raced just off the lead, and one was won by a mid-pack stalker. Closers like Disarm got completely shut out. He'll be a live sleeper at well over 20-1 in Louisville.

6) REINCARNATE (c, Good Magic–Allanah, by Scat Daddy) O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert Masterson, Stonestreet Stables LLC, Jay Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC & Catherine Donovan; B-Woods Edge Farm (Ky); Tim Yakteen. Sales history: $775,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-3-1, $231,900. Last Start: 3rd in the
GII Rebel S. at Oaklawn Feb. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 15.

Reincarnate, a $775,000 KEESEP colt by Good Magic, will bear the burden of favoritism in Saturday's GI Arkansas Derby, and deservedly so.

He's the controlling speed on paper and is exiting a difficult trip in the Feb. 25 GII Rebel S., in which he got bounced around at the break, advanced into contention, then had to check late. Still, he managed third (90 Beyer). Jockey John Velazquez rides back.

A big horse with a long stride, Reincarnate started his career with two turf tries (both seconds). He was then second in his dirt debut, and finally broke through in try number four at Del Mar Nov. 25, after which he took the Jan. 8 GIII Sham S., dueling all the way on the inside and earning a 95 Beyer at somewhat surprising 16-1 odds.

Reincarnate has never been off the board from six starts, all at a mile or longer, so the stamina base is there. The Arkansas Derby will offer a sharper picture of where this colt stands in terms of honing his chief tactical weapon, which is front-end force.

7) TWO PHIL'S (c, Hard Spun-Mia Torri, by General Quarters) O-Patricia's Hope LLC and Phillip Sagan; B-Phillip Sagan; T-Larry Rivelli. Sales History: $150,000 RNA Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-1-1, $683,450. Last start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 123.

Figuring out whether or not nine-furlong Tapeta form will translate to 10-furlong dirt success is a bit like trying to understand voodoo. But the 101-Beyer win by Two Phil's in Saturday's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks stamps him as an intriguing mid-tier threat on the Derby totem pole, and he has growing appeal as a 4-for-8 closer/stalker whose strengths are versatility and adaptability.

This son of Hard Spun has taken a somewhat unconventional path to Derby relevancy, having started as a 2-year-old at Colonial and Canterbury before breaking through with a 5 1/4-length win at 7-1 odds in the GIII Street Sense S. at Churchill, which came over a sealed and sloppy track.

After running second in the GII Lecomte S. and third in the GII Risen Star S., trainer Larry Rivelli took a risk by opting for a start over Tapeta at Turfway, over which Two Phil's had never raced.

Off as the 2.8-1 second choice in the Jeff Ruby, jockey Jareth Loveberry rated this colt three wide into the first turn, patiently kept him parked outside while sixth down the backstretch, then let Two Phil's unwind four deep through the far bend, always shadowing the move of the 1.7-1 fave Major Dude (Bolt d'Oro) before reeling in that rival without much of a fight in upper stretch.

True, no one else was firing down the lane to offer a fresh challenge. But Two Phil's finished up respectably under his own power, leaving the impression that he wasn't entirely sapped by the effort.

Two Phil's will train at Rivelli's Hawthorne-based stable, where he will remain under the radar until Derby day gets closer.

8) KINGSBARNS (c, Uncle Mo–Lady Tapit, by Tapit) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Parks Investment Group (Ky); Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $250,000 yrl '21 FTSAR; $800,000 2yo '22 FTMAR. Lifetime Record: 3-3-0-0, $657,300. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Derby Points: 100.

With the calendar on the cusp of flipping into April, Todd Pletcher has emerged as the deepest-stocked Derby trainer, with three colts ranked within the top eight on this list.

The 3-for-3 Kingsbarns is evolving into a no-nonsense frontrunner who knows his job and gets into gear without drama, having now handled the footing of three very different dirt surfaces (Gulfstream, Tampa, Fair Grounds) and shipping to each track from Pletcher's winter training base at Palm Beach Downs without apparent difficulty.

This Uncle Mo colt was assigned a 95 Beyer for his Louisiana Derby wiring. The win represents a nice progression through only 10 weeks of racing experience. But peering more closely at his 1:57.33 clocking for 1 3/16 miles does raise legitimate questions.

That final time is the slowest in four years since the Louisiana Derby got elongated from nine furlongs, and it's nearly a full second off the previous slowest clocking of 1:56.47. Granted, that's only a small sample. But also consider that Kingsbarns was virtually unchallenged through a tepid pace, and the speed-favoring track at Fair Grounds Mar. 25 definitely played to his running style. Both the pace pressure and the tempo will be ratcheted up considerably in the Kentucky Derby.

The Apr. 8 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby will have an indirect impact on Kingsbarns. Flavien Part, who rode this colt for the first time in New Orleans, has a competing call aboard Geaux Rocket Ride in that Santa Anita stakes, meaning he might have to choose between mounts at some point.

9) ROCKET CAN (c, Into Mischief–Tension, by Tapit) O-Frank Fletcher Racing Operations Inc.; B-Woodford Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales history: $245,000 RNA Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $249,738. Last Start: 2nd GII Fountain of Youth S. at Gulfstream Mar. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

The presence of No. 1-ranked Forte isn't what re-routed Rocket Can from the Florida prep path to Saturday's Arkansas Derby. This Into Mischief gray is owned by North Little Rock's Frank Fletcher, who is seeking his first victory in Oaklawn's premier stakes, a win he covets dearly because of the local connection to his home-state track.

Trainer Bill Mott has no problem accommodating an Oaklawn try by shipping Rocket Can to Hot Springs, and in the grand scheme of things, evading the formidable Forte in the same-day Florida Derby does look like a wise move.

Since stretching out to two turns back on Oct. 30, Rocket Can has finished 1-2-1-2 in four consecutive 1 1/16-miles races, the latter two being Gulfstream stakes.

His route-race Beyers look a little light (78, 82, 82, 91) compared to other Derby aspirants, but this gray has resonated as a “better than what you see on paper” type of prospect, earning style points for reliably pouncing off the far turn and throwing himself headlong into deep-stretch showdowns with an underdog flair.

Mott acknowledged after Rocket Can's second-place try behind Forte in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S. that this colt got a little too wound up pre-race and was overly keen in the early stages of that race. Seeing how he acts in the post parade and during warmups will be crucial in assessing his chances Saturday.

10) RED ROUTE ONE (c, Gun Runner–Red House, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds, LLC (Ky); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: GISP, 7-1-2-1, $492,575. Last Start: 2nd in
Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. Kentucky Derby Points: 33.

Red Route One has never won on dirt, hasn't hit the winner's circle in more than six months, and has never been fancied as the favorite in any of his seven lifetime races.

Yet here he is, one prep race from the Derby and pegged at a comparatively lofty No. 10 within the Top 12 while commanding a qualifying spot at No. 16 in the points standings for Derby eligibility. He closed at a respectable 24-1 in the latest version of the Derby Future Wager back on Mar. 12, which might end up representing lower odds than he'll be in the Derby itself on May 6.

The chief reason this Winchell Thoroughbreds homebred is so well-regarded this deep into the season has everything to do with his potential upside at longer distances. By Gun Runner out of a Tapit mare and with a come-from-behind running style, Red Route One has twice splashed home second at Oaklawn this winter in graded stakes, and in all five of his 1 1/16-miles dirt races since October he's given the appearance that he's just starting to get uncoiled when the finish line is looming.

Red Route One has drawn post 10 for Saturday's Arkansas Derby.

11) SLIP MAHONEY (c, Arrogate–Got Lucky, by A.P. Indy) O-Gold Square LLC; B-Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings & Philip Steinberg (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $150,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-1-2-0, $126,100. Last Start: 2nd in GIII Gotham S. at Aqueduct Mar 4. Kentucky Derby Points: 20.

Slip Mahoney's stout Arrogate-over-A.P. Indy pedigree is likely to serve him well when this Brad Cox trainee stretches out to nine furlongs in the Apr. 8 GII Wood Memorial.

This $150,000 KEESEP colt was slow from the gate and second best with a big late rush from 13th behind a 7 1/2-length runaway winner in the muddy GIII Gotham S. back on Mar. 4.

That one-turn mile was Slip Mahoney's first go outside of the maiden ranks and he likely got more out of the experience than it looks on paper.

He breezed a half mile in :48.40 (2/89) Saturday over the Belmont training track with assistant trainer Dustin Dugas up, working in company with a stakes-placed filly.

“The work was great,” said Dugas. “Slip Mahoney was on the inside and it was a really good move from the both of them. They broke off well and galloped out in 1:01, so it was a good gallop out. I was happy with it and both came back really well. He didn't really require much encouraging.”

12) CONFIDENCE GAME (c, Candy Ride {Arg}–Eblouissante, by Bernardini) O-Don't Tell My Wife Stables; B-Summer Wind Equine, LLC (Ky); T-J K Desormeaux. Sales history: $25,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-1-2, $785,525. Last Start: Won Feb. 25 GII Rebel S. at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 57.

Confidence Game's next start remains up in the air as trainer Keith Desormeaux mulls options that include the Apr. 8 Blue Grass S. at nine furlongs, the GIII Lexington S. at 1 1/16 miles one week later, or simply training up to the Kentucky Derby.

This $25,000 KEESEP Candy Ride colt earned a 94 Beyer when winning the Rebel S. back on Feb. 25, benefitting from a comfortable, mid-pack trip behind two long-shot speedsters and two favorites who never fired.

Confidence Game, an efficient strider who responds to rousing from his rider, got third run at the tiring leaders off the final turn in the Rebel, then largely avoided a crush of inside traffic with a wide stretch bid that included some outward wandering late.

Although he has seven races of experience (five of them routes), this is a colt I'd like to see in action at nine furlongs before more emphatically getting behind his chances in the Derby.

If he goes straight to Louisville after having been idle for 10 weeks and having never raced beyond 1 1/16 miles, it would be a huge ask, especially considering that Desormeaux acknowledged Confidence Game “sort of lost his mind in the paddock” prior to his Rebel score.

The post TDN Derby Top 12: The Real Running Starts Now appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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