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Kentucky Sires for 2021: Fourth-Crop Stallions

What a tough game this is. You only get to show the first card in your hand before virtually the whole pile of chips is distributed. One or two players gather up their winnings, whooping triumphantly, and suddenly your own hopes of staying in the game–your hopes of a viable stud career in Kentucky–depend exorbitantly on the next card. Generally speaking, it doesn't matter if you turn out to have had a whole sheaf of aces farther into your hand. By the time you can turn those over, there will be nothing left on the table but empty glasses and a full ashtray.

We noted in the previous instalment that a third crop of juveniles, alongside a first crop of 4-year-olds, typically represents a final chance. Sure enough, compared with 18 Bluegrass stallions approaching that crossroads, we find just six left to review today from the preceding intake.

But whatever sympathy we feel for those meanwhile driven into regional or overseas programs, the nature of the business today means that they have actually delivered as legible and legitimate a sample of their work as we are ever going to get. So many stallions nowadays cover 500 mares across their first three seasons, only to find themselves reduced to a dozen or two within a couple of years. If anything, then, their embarrassment now should prompt us to revisit the vogue they enjoyed when first going to market–and perhaps the contrast might even make us hesitate before rushing to the next lot of rookies off the carousel.

In this group, however, there are a couple who have done something beyond almost all young stallions and created a sustainable niche in the market. Having made a brisk start with his first juveniles in 2018, in fact, GOLDENCENTS (Into Mischief–Golden Works, by Banker's Gold) entertained no fewer than 239 mares at Spendthrift the following spring and another 204 last year–taking him to an aggregate 1,133 through his first six years.

And he will presumably maintain the traffic, his farm having taken such a purposeful lead on fee cuts in the pandemic marketplace: for 2021 he's back down to his original fee of $15,000, from $25,000 last year.

Goldencents topped the third-crop championship in 2020 by nearly all indices, having previously been champion freshman by winners (second to studmate Cross Traffic by prize money) and then headed the second-crop table. Given his fairly industrial output, however, he is nothing like so dominant in percentage terms. It would be pushing things, certainly, to describe nine black-type winners and three graded stakes winners from 255 starters as a wildly exciting yield.

By My Standards has been a standard-bearer for Goldencents | Coady

But then Goldencents, having been one of the first to demonstrate his sire's capacity to upgrade mares, has also been in the vanguard in terms of testing whether that prowess will be recycled by his sons. He was just a $5,500 yearling, remember, out of a $7,000 mare by a stallion who ended up in Cyprus. The family did bring hardiness (next two dams respectively 18-for-45 and 13-for-46), but somehow Into Mischief ignited a spark of quality in Goldencents that burned up consecutive editions of the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. And while his sire was still available at $35,000 when Goldencents joined him at Spendthrift, his relative affordability has obviously been at a growing premium ever since.

Goldencents was blessed that his own first crop produced a couple who did much the same service, in promoting their sire, as he had himself performed for Into Mischief. In fact, By My Standards and Mr. Money remain far and away his biggest earners to date. And while neither has quite broken the Grade I ice, By My Standards certainly neared the top of the handicap division in his third season and has helped to keep his sire's names in lights all the way through.

Arguably it's about time Goldencents produced a new star, but that's precisely what he can hope to do after getting that reboot from his prolific first crop. In the meantime, admittedly, he has been treading water somewhat at the sales: while one daughter did bring $300,000, he averaged a steady $29,069 with his 2020 yearlings, for 52 sold of 68 offered.

That yield, and all the rest cited here, must of course be placed in the context of an exceptionally challenging market. Be that as it may, we will pretty soon have to cease doing what we're doing today–comparing these survivors against other stallions at the same stage of their career–and instead start measuring them against all those established operators who, having shed the commercial allure of novelty, have already chiselled a lasting foothold in the market.

Cairo Prince | Sarah Andrew

Sticking to this group, however, you couldn't ask for a more instructive foil to Goldencents than CAIRO PRINCE (Pioneerof the Nile–Holy Bubbette, by Holy Bull). They have reached this point absolutely in tandem: Goldencents has 384 named foals, Cairo Prince 380; Goldencents has had 256 starters, Cairo Prince 249; Goldencents has 158 winners, Cairo Prince 156; they both, moreover, have 26 black-type horses. Sure enough, they stand for the same fee. But it's the Airdrie stallion who has a slight but consistent edge at the top end: by stakes winners (13 plays nine), graded stakes winners (five plays three) and graded stakes horses (ten plays seven).

Moreover Cairo Prince is one of those rare stallions whose initial market reception was way out of line with the ranking implied by his opening fee. We've seen, throughout this series, how that seldom guarantees anything–whether for better or worse. In this case, however, it has turned out that Cairo Prince was quite rightly “found” as a $10,000 start-up.

His stock was received with such enthusiasm that he actually earned two fee hikes before he had a single runner, an extremely rare accolade. And if he, too, has now required a trim from $25,000, then the buzz he generated with his sales debut in 2017–when he achieved a staggering average yield of 15 times his fee–will only now start to tell in the improved quality of his mares.

True, commercial opportunism tends to be finite wherever it occurs in the cycle, and Cairo Prince dropped to 87 mares last spring after being basically fully subscribed to that point. But it's a confident bet that the juveniles heading to the track this year, conceived after that remarkable sales debut, will give fresh commercial kudos to the foals he breeds this time round.

In the meantime, Cairo Prince continues to impress with his sales stock, averaging $47,601 for 57 sold of 78 offered in 2020, confirming him far and away the most resilient and productive sales sire in this group. He just needs his big horse, now, but he's having an excellent winter on the track (three new stakes winners over the past month) and, nationally, only Into Mischief, Tapiture, Not This Time and American Pharoah had more juvenile winners last year. And it certainly does no harm that he now has another productive young stallion so close up, his Grade I-placed half-sister having gained new celebrity as dam of WinStar's thriving rookie Outwork (Uncle Mo).

Mucho Macho Man | EquiSport Photos

In 2020, however, the star turn in this group was MUCHO MACHO MAN (Macho Uno–Ponche de Leona, by Ponche), who inserted himself between Goldencents and Cairo Prince in the third-crop prize money table with two Grade I winners. In previous years, of course, Mucho Gusto's success in the Pegasus World Cup would have been still more lucrative. Moreover that horse was unfortunate to be sidelined after his trip to the desert and only resurfaced when fourth behind Cairo Prince's latest graded stakes winner, Kiss Today Goodbye, in the GII San Antonio S. at Christmas.

Anyhow his sire followed through with an elite success on turf, as well, Rodeo Drive S. winner Mucho Unusual having meanwhile added another two graded stakes even since Christmas. In fact, with a total 51 winners from just 77 starters in 2020, Mucho Macho Man topped the national field last year in earnings-per-foal–and, importantly, we know that his stock is just going to keep thriving. Though precocious enough to contest all three legs of the Triple Crown before his third birthday, he kept filling that great rangy frame of his to win the GI Breeders' Cup Classic at five.

These results are barely filtering through to the commercial market, as he averaged $24,883 for 21 yearling sales of 28 offered, but then he only stands for $7,500. And he goes well at the juvenile sales (Mucho Gusto made no less than $625,000!) just as we should expect of a stallion who relies on deeds not hype. He's a mad outcross but is quietly earning his stripes and hopefully people are beginning to pay attention. His third book had dwindled to just 35, but he has since welcomed 96, 86 and 77 guests to Hill 'n' Dale at Xalapa. Lot of horse for the money, in every way.

Will Take Charge | Louise Reinagel

The rival Mucho Macho Man nosed out for his greatest success was a barely less imposing creature, but now finds himself on a rather less encouraging tangent. It seems a long time, certainly, since WILL TAKE CHARGE (Unbridled's Song–Take Charge Lady, by Dehere) set out at $30,000 and duly dominated this lot in their sales debut with a $169,190 average. This time round he cashed out 37 of 41 for just $13,712, and he's down to a bargain $5,000 at Three Chimneys after being reduced to a very small book last spring.

Will Take Charge has mustered a handful of stakes winners, notably Grade I-placed sprinter Manny Wah, and maybe he will just prove a slow burner, as will sometimes happen with such a scopey horse. His was an especially fine constitution by the standards of his sire, highlighted by an 11-start sophomore campaign that started in January and ended, 26 days after his huge run at the Breeders' Cup, with success in the GI Clark H. His maternal family, meanwhile, has only become more aristocratic with the rise of Omaha Beach (War Front). Everything seemed to be in place so it would be a mystery, as well as a pity, if he can't turn things round.

Cross Traffic | Sarah Andrew

CROSS TRAFFIC (Unbridled's Song–Stop Traffic, by Cure the Blues) is by the same sire and made a stronger start in contesting the succession, helped to the freshman's title by Breeders' Cup champion Jaywalk but also topping the class by overall stakes winners/ performers.

He has not quite maintained that flying start and Spendthrift, who briefly rewarded his freshman title with a hike to $25,000, will be hoping for a reset after halving him from $15,000 to $7,500 this time round. But there are solid grounds for optimism.

For a start, Cross Traffic is no longer dining out simply on Jaywalk. Among his second crop, Ny Traffic carried his standard very valiantly–never more conspicuously than when running Authentic (Into Mischief) himself to a head in the GI Haskell, while he was previously only beaten a length by Maxfield in the GIII Matt Winn S.

And Cross Traffic can soon expect a healthy spike in the graph, with his post-freshman, 2019 book having soared to 188 mares from 60. True, he promptly sank to 59 last year, but that's how fecklessly the commercial market works nowadays. The thing to remember now is that he will have that big crop of juveniles next year, so he's another who can hope that foals conceived this spring may ride fresh headlines on the track.

True, Cross Traffic stands in need of that revival after averaging just $11,630 for the 16 yearlings of 17 sent into the pandemic market, but at least he has exactly that chance brewing. Let's not forget how naturally talented he was, nailed only on the line in the stallion-making GI Met Mile just four months after his debut (got his Grade I next time).

As noted, many stallions in this group have been sold to regional programs or exported, and we're particularly sorry that Fed Biz (great work, Highfield Farm of Alberta!) and Noble Mission (GB) weren't able to get adequate traction. One or two others, however, appear to have slipped off Kentucky rosters with zero announcements on their relocation. I know the farms in question will have applied impeccable standards in deciding their future but it would be a concern if due candour about their “failure,” after so brief an opportunity, is being viewed as too instructive of the flimsiness of the commercial model.

Real Solution | ThoroStride

The only other member of this intake apparently still operating in the Bluegrass on a commercial basis is REAL SOLUTION (Kitten's Joy–Reachforthe-heavens, by Pulpit). Actually he has reversed the standard procedure, having returned to Calumet after a couple of years in Louisiana early on. But he certainly fits the bill for this farm as a dual Grade I winner on turf, with venerable Classic influences seeding his family: his third dam is a Northern Dancer half-sister to champion Slew o' Gold (Seattle Slew) and Classic winner Coastal (Majestic Prince), as well as to the dam of Aptitude (A.P. Indy).

Real Solution covered just 27 mares last spring and his handful of yearlings couldn't work even a $5,000 fee, but he's had a $675,000 2-year-old and, bottom line, he's there to breed runners. That's just what he produced (thanks to the breeders who made his sire) in Ramsey Solution, who is five-for-nine including a $300,000 stakes at Kentucky Downs last September.

In fact, Real Solution has had 33 winners from just 44 starters overall, including three at black-type level; while $10,000 yearling and six-time winner Queens Embrace earned a Grade II placing at Saratoga last summer. That shows what can be done if your priorities are right, and Real Solution could appeal to enlightened breeders as being well named.

In the long term, after all, the breed will suffer badly if people can only afford to use fast-buck commercial sires who are expelled from the Bluegrass the moment their first yearlings leave the sales ring. With so few stallions surviving in this intake, however, we'll combine them with the preceding class for a composite “value podium” next time.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: Fourth-Crop Stallions appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: Third-Crop Sires, Part I

It's now or never, guys!

The deeper we go into our survey of Kentucky covering options for 2021, the fewer stallions remain standing. And those we reach today, about to launch a third crop of juveniles, have entered a decisive stage of their climb. Two or three are ascending confidently toward the next ridge; a handful are clinging tenaciously to a ledge; but many are now slithering unhappily down through the scree.

Several have already disappeared into regional or overseas programs. For now, the leading Bluegrass farms are persevering with 18 stallions from this group. It's a safe bet, however, that by this time next year, half of them will have been moved on. In each of the three preceding intakes, the same farms now retain no more than seven or eight.

In the course of this series, we've repeatedly remarked how unproven stallions are first supported and then abandoned with equal haste. But the foals conceived by these stallions this spring will have a far more legible value at the yearling sales of 2023. With a fifth crop on the track, their sires will by then have given us a legitimate sense of how their stock develop with maturity. There will be no more excuses.

The stakes, then, are now extremely steep. The rewards are potentially high, with fees generally tumbling, but the risk for the majority is clear. As such, it's no surprise that many commercial stallions should find their books virtually evaporating. He who lives by the sword dies by the sword. If you launch your stallion to appeal to short-term opportunists, you can't complain when they quit the scene in the same tearing rush as they first arrived.

Unless you're talking about a two-turn horse under restrained management–with the scope to become another Blame, say–these stallions tend to require immediate momentum from their first couple of crops. There can be no stalling as the lights go green. It's extremely rare, certainly, that the more commercial types get a reprieve after the remarkable fashion, in this group, of Daredevil.

Among those drinking in the last-chance saloon, then, who deserves the funding to go back up to the bar and order one more round? Who deserves one final opportunity to secure a viable stud career in Kentucky? At a time when generous fee cuts are being made across the roster, there will surely be a bargain or two for those bold enough to take a gamble.

Harvey's Lil Goil is one of two scorers at the top level for American Pharoah Coady

Naturally we start with AMERICAN PHAROAH (Pioneerof the Nile–Littleprincess-emma, by Yankee Gentlemen), who continues to do everything required by his stellar status and six-figure fee: champion freshman, now champion second-crop sire and once again well clear with his yearling averages too. But bold gambles need not be confined to the strugglers, and I do hope that someday his owners might think about giving this horse at least a year on their farm in Ireland.

The fact is that only one of American Pharoah's six graded stakes winners in 2020 came on dirt (and that was in Japan). Partly this reflects the fact that he already has quite good representation in Europe–not least through the homebred Van Gogh, among the favorites for Epsom after rounding off his first season at Ballydoyle with a four-length Group 1 success in France. American Pharoah's other elite scorer, however, is Harvey's Lil Goil, who left the main track to win the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup and then got within half a length in the Filly & Mare Turf at the Breeders' Cup. The slightly startling bottom line is that American Pharoah, by North American dirt earnings, finished behind nine other second-crop stallions with two black-type winners from 82 starters in 2020.

Ashford is offering him at $100,000 for 2020, having soon listed him as “private” after launching him at $200,000, and he's not going to lack either quality or quantity any time soon. After a Breeders' Cup winner from his first crop of juveniles, he welcomed another 153 mares last spring, following nearly 800 across his first four years. And he had two outstanding sophomores on dirt in Japan, so we're plainly talking about a versatile sire rather than any kind of strict specialist.

In this day and age, after all, it should only be an increasing asset–including in the domestic market–for a Triple Crown winner to parlay his class into different environments. (His own sire, remember, broke his maiden on turf and took a synthetic route to the Kentucky Derby where he finished second in the slop.)

A sojourn in Europe would give breeders there a thrilling opportunity. But American breeders will doubtless remain so jealous of this historic achiever that the Europeans will just have to keep shipping mares if they want competition for Galileo (Ire) and his sons. Certainly it's none of my business to tell the best in the business how to run their business. They will know the English expression, “If it ain't broke, don't fix it.” And American Pharoah's third crop of yearlings averaged $227,820 for 49 sold of 68 into the ring, including a couple of seven-figure sales.

That was admittedly well down on his first couple of crops, which both exceeded $400,000. But it's a very solid yield compared with most of these stallions. The market for third-crop yearlings, remember, is notoriously porous at the best of times; and this cycle, collectively, was under freakish additional pressure in the pandemic economy. To be broadsided in this fashion, precisely when most commercially vulnerable, demands an invisible asterisk for every yearling they sold in 2020.

Constitution | Sarah Andrew

The one who has bucked that trend most comprehensively is CONSTITUTION (Tapit–Baffled, by Distorted Humor). With his flagship Tiz the Law continuing to thrive as a sophomore, WinStar's comet advanced his third crop of yearlings to $137,351, up again from $95,314 after a big debut crop had been rather coolly received at $71,424. His fee has taken parallel steps, having been cut to $15,000 from an opening $25,000 before earning hikes to $40,000 and now $85,000. Last year, similarly, having slipped to 85 mares in his fourth season, he broke into the top five books in the nation with no fewer than 231 covers.

Besides the stellar Tiz the Law, in 2020 Constitution admittedly mustered just one other graded stakes winner in Laura's Light (scored at both Grade II and III level). But no fewer than 19 black-type performers represented nearly 14% of starters, building on the unarguable breadth of impact (eight graded stakes horses) made by his first juveniles the previous year. For what it may be worth, his sojourn in Chile has been no less productive with three youngsters winning Group 1s.

Constitution has put himself in the vanguard of those sons of Tapit contesting the eventual succession, and his own profile–unraced at two, clocked a 111 Beyer in the GI Donn at four–suggests that his stock should continue to consolidate from here. Like American Pharoah, his family has been seeded by one or two quirky names, but there are good horses close up on his page and, one way or another, everything is falling into place. He is becoming a model of what farms hope to achieve with a young commercial stallion.

Daredevil | Louise Reinagel

This time last year, the game already appeared to be up for Constitution's former studmate DAREDEVIL (More Than Ready–Chasethewildwind, by Forty Niner). We should congratulate The Jockey Club of Turkey, in fact, for profiting from the panicky temperament of the American commercial market. Having imported a modest but presentable freshman sire, with 13 winners from 41 starters, they saw two of his first sophomores improve into Grade I winners and were immediately able to repatriate Daredevil to Lane's End to stand at $25,000.

Of course, it may yet prove that everyone has now overreacted to his triumph no less than they did in dismissing him as a $7,500 dud. In percentage terms, none of these stallions owes so much to their principal earner as does Daredevil to his extraordinary GI Preakness winner Swiss Skydiver–and we know that any sire can come up with one freaky good horse. Hence the vital importance of Shedaresthedevil beating Swiss Skydiver in their stunning GI Kentucky Oaks one-two; moreover, Daredevil's only other black-type winner of 2020 graduated from Ohio-bred company to chase home Vequist (Nyquist), albeit at a respectful distance, in the GI Spinaway S.

So Daredevil had 'only' three black-type horses. And he had 'as many as' three Grade I horses. You decide. He has been priced strictly for believers, but let's remember that he did all this from not quite half as many starters as American Pharoah. Naturally, Daredevil was another of the few to drive up his third crop of yearlings, who rallied to $42,403 for 28 sales (of 42 offered) from $14,260 for his second.

After such a wild ride to date, it'll be fascinating to see how he stabilizes from here. If Daredevil himself couldn't go on from a juvenile Grade I success, it's encouraging that he's half-brother to an older campaigner as hard-knocking as Albertus Maximus (Albert the Great). His big problem will be the looming bump in the road resulting from just 21 covers in 2019.

Tapiture | EquiSport Photos

There will be no break in the traffic for TAPITURE (Tapit–Free Spin, by Olympio) at Darby Dan, where he significantly secured marginally his biggest book to date in his fifth year, up to 186 from 114 the previous year (after 525 covers across his first three seasons). He made the most of that footprint in 2020, with 16 black-type horses, albeit only one–Hopeful Growth in the GIII Monmouth Oaks–actually achieved graded stakes success. His principal earner was instead the $30,000 yearling Jesus' Team, who achieved a Classic podium in the GI Preakness S. and also emulated his sire as runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

His prolific output secured Tapiture third place in the second-crop prize money table, albeit his percentages can duly be matched by a number of sires apparently struggling in his wake; and even he endured a declining yield at the yearling sales, down to $20,605 for 44 sold (from 67 into the ring) from $39,101 the previous year. (But that, as already noted, is pretty standard at the best of times–never mind in a pandemic market.)

In the round, he has done enough actually to advance his fee to $10,000 from $7,500, a rare distinction for a stallion at this stage of his career. His damsire introduces a backwater of the Nasrullah line but, judging from serial graded stakes performance or production by siblings, something is functioning consistently well. And, relative to many commercial sires, his key advantage is that his precocious returns could yet be consolidated by maturing stock: he won graded stakes at two, three and four.

Liam's Map | Asuncion Pineyrua

That should also prove true of LIAM'S MAP (Unbridled's Song–Miss Macy Sue, by Trippi), who was a late starter on the track but clocked 114 Beyers for both his Grade Is at four, and arguably surpassed even those performances when run down by Honor Code in a Whitney for the ages.

The first three home in that epic all ended up at Lane's End and, while I retain no less faith in the other two, it is Liam's Map who seems to have caught a following wind to this point. He first prospered from a very useful opportunism: the two stakes winners in his first crop of juveniles did the job properly, both scoring at Grade I level. Now Liam's Map has followed through with a solid fifth in the second-crop table, with seven stakes winners at essentially the same clip as American Pharoah and Constitution. If eking a second Grade I win out of Basin was candidly a bonus, the easy winner being later disqualified, then the GII Pat Day Mile success of Rushie was a validly fresh string to their sire's bow.

By the prudent standards of his farm, 156 mares in his fifth book–despite a hike from $20,000 to $35,000–represented a return to full subscription after Liam's Map had eased slightly, in familiar fashion, to 114 the previous year. A trim back to $30,000 will doubtless help to maintain momentum, and overall he appears to be in good shape. His third crop of yearlings averaged $80,435 for 39 sold of 54, holding up their value very well (second crop $118,801) relative to most in this intake.

That can be no surprise in one who himself cost $800,000 as a yearling, and whose pedigree has only grown more aristocratic with the flying start made at stud by half-brother Not This Time (Giant's Causeway). A family like theirs, combined with six triple-digit Beyers in eight starts, meant that Liam's Map always seemed destined to make the grade. And he could not be in better hands to stay on course now.

Honor Code | Lane's End

Somehow things don't seem to have fallen quite so obligingly for HONOR CODE (A.P. Indy–Serena's Cat, by Storm Cat) on the same roster, but I believe he remains well qualified to succeed in the long term. He was unlucky that fate restricted his flagship Honor A. P. to a single performance that did justice of his true merit, in the GI Santa Anita Derby. Moreover, the odds against Honor Code are potentially now compounded by the arrival of his physically stunning son as a rival in the same stallion shed–and a rival, moreover, priced as the outstanding value of Kentucky's entire new intake.

Honor Code's quiet start with his first juveniles left him chasing the pace somewhat, and he was cut to $30,000 from an opening $40,000 to receive 85 mares last spring, following four basically full books of around 150. Half a dozen stakes horses in 2020 represented a steady gain, Honor A. P. finding his best support from the GIII Withers success/GI Travers podium of Max Player, and another cut (to $20,000) should help to maintain his appeal to more patient breeders. He certainly throws a seductive foal and $50,068 for 51 (of 73) yearlings sold from his third crop was a familiar kind of slip–for this vulnerable group, in this market–from $75,494.

He should certainly retain his appeal to anyone who might be disposed to retain a filly. The maternal line is obviously regal, while the cross between sire and damsire combines twin bulwarks of Secretariat's broodmare prowess. With plenty of maturing talent on stream, Honor Code could yet replicate his Whitney performance, when taking off from the rear and running down the trail-blazing Liam's Map. But there's no denying this looks an important year for him.

The second half of this instalment in our ongoing series will appear [in tomorrow's edition], among others featuring the likes of Tonalist, Karakontie (Jpn), Summer Front and Palace Malice, as well as our latest value podium.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: Third-Crop Sires, Part I appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part II

This is the second half of the latest instalment in our ongoing survey of covering options for the new breeding season. The first part can be read here.

UPSTART (Flatter–Party Silks, by Touch Gold) was cleverly named and I think him a very plausible type, likely to rise pretty quickly through the ranks. Certainly there were more than enough “nouveaux riches” among his first juveniles–only Not This Time exceeded his 19 winners (from 54 starters)–for him to be pegged at $10,000 by Airdrie. His principal earner was Reinvestment Risk, who twice chased home speedball Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music) in Grade Is after romping on debut at Saratoga, but a measure of what may be coming down the tracks was the 12-length debut success of Manor House at Laurel just before Christmas.

Remember Upstart himself was multiple Grade I-placed at two, three and four, so expect him to keep consolidating from an opening book of 146 and in the process to ride out a dip in numbers since to 86 and then just 38. Very auspiciously, his first yearlings (whose $63,608 average exceeded six times his fee) prompted renewed traffic last spring to 90 mares. And actually his second crop maintained value and demand far better than most, 41 of 47 selling for another very fertile yield, relatively speaking, at $45,159. In the meantime he had also excelled in a challenging 2-year-old market, his $104,400 average giving him virtual parity with a far more expensive pair in Nyquist and Frosted.

There’s no mistaking professional enthusiasm for Upstart’s stock, physically. But the key is that the speed shown by his earlier types is just a foundation; they’re bred and built to stretch, too. I can’t imagine that Flatter has had another juvenile clock a triple-digit Beyer, and there’s a really wholesome depth and balance to his pedigree.

His dam, a half-sister to a Grade II winner, is by Touch Gold–who combines distaff legends Deputy Minister and Buckpasser. This just looks so good opposite the Secretariat-Buckpasser combination behind Weekend Surprise, mother of Flatter’s sire A.P. Indy.

Speightster | PM Photos

One at the same fee who did even better in terms of holding the value of his second crop was SPEIGHTSTER (Speightstown–Dance Swiftly, by Danzig), no mean achievement given the sheer volume he had generated at WinStar.

Having opened up with a $63,680 dividend, virtually identical with Upstart, for 71 yearlings sold from no fewer than 97 offered in his first crop, Speightster managed $59,153 for 43 of 58 offered this time round. That was sufficient to secure fifth in the averages, and represents a quite remarkable vote of confidence after a solid 15 winners from 63 starters. A couple of those scored at black-type level, though perhaps nothing Speightster has done so far quite equalled the splash of his $1.1 million son at OBS in the summer.

His profile contrasts sharply with that of Upstart, having blitzed his first three (sophomore maiden/allowance/GIII Dwyer) before derailing on only his fourth start. That may or may not have been the tip of an iceberg, but the pedigree could hardly have been more auspicious. What a frisson, nowadays, just to see a dam by Danzig–never mind one who is sister to Dance Smartly and half-sister to Smart Strike. This is obviously one of the great Canadian dynasties, while a physical resemblance to his farm’s venerable patriarch can only aid Speightster’s cause in contesting the succession. He has relentless numbers behind him, too, having opened with books of 174, 150, 124 and 152, so one way or another there’s a lot of belief out there.

Air Force Blue | Coolmore

His buoyancy offers a curious contrast with another who prizes Danzig in the second generation. The first juveniles of AIR FORCE BLUE (War Front–Chatham, by Maria’s Mon) performed to a very similar level–in fact more winners from fewer runners (17 from 46), albeit just couldn’t crack a stakes win–but who suffered quite a slide in the value of his second crop of yearlings: his 34 sales (of 50) this time round realizing $46,145, down from the $98,230 (albeit for only 44 sold of 73 into the ring) on his sales debut.

One obvious difference is that Ashford started him at $25,000, but he has taken repeated trims and is now down to $10,000. Another is that Air Force Blue failed to go on after a sensational juvenile career, so we’ll now be looking for him to draw on his pedigree to keep his stock progressing with maturity. That’s certainly possible: his second dam is full-sister to Flanders (Seeking the Gold), a champion herself and dam of another in Surfside (Seattle Slew), while copper-bottomed influences seed his entire family tree. But you suspect the biggest hesitation has been a reputation made on turf, such a culpable prejudice in the commercial market.

In fact nine of his 17 winners scored on dirt, and this horse deserves a fresh chance at such a friendly fee. He was a genuinely top-class juvenile for Ballydoyle and it looks a really positive sign that the conveyor belt picked up again last spring when opening books of 153, 106 and 90 were followed by one of 135.

Exaggerator | Sarah Andrew

Nobody threw numbers at the track in the same volume as EXAGGERATOR (Curlin–Dawn Raid, by Vindication), so 14 winners from as many as 69 starters has to go down as pretty tepid. As many as five, however, managed a stakes podium. Having launched at WinStar off $30,000, he housed 63 of 103 yearlings in his first crop for $85,746 but it proved tough going for his 76 into the ring this time, 56 processed at just $25,982. He has taken a third consecutive cut, to $15,000, but will maintain the numbers after a fourth book of 104, having opened with 162, 163 and 129.

If this is the kind of industrial process that makes some of us uncomfortable, then Exaggerator did at least demonstrate some old-school wares in banking $3.6 million through 15 starts in 16 months, actually bookending his career in the same races as Nyquist. The pair also exchanged verdicts in the Derby and Preakness, one of three Grade I prizes won by an admirable racehorse of good Canadian family. You’d expect Exaggerator’s stock to keep thriving, then, as and when finding their stride.

The same farm launched TOURIST (Tiznow–Unbridled Melody, by Unbridled’s Song) at $12,500 but has had to make repeated cuts, now to $5,000, after failing to find any commercial traction with his first two crops: the first realized $27,996 for 41 sales (of 58 offered) and this time round he was down to $14,533 for 16 of 23. With his books dwindling–134, 102, 70 and 60–he needs his stock to stick to the program, having himself improved relentlessly through four campaigns until ultimately shocking Tepin (Bernstein) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile in a race-record 1:31.71. He laid a feasible base with 13 winners from 43 starters, and the market’s distaste for turf meant that he would always be a longer-term project.

Flintshire | Louise Reinagel

Speaking of grass, you can only despair that a horse as accomplished as FLINTSHIRE (GB) (Dansili {GB}–Dance Routine {GB}, by Sadler’s Wells) should struggle for patronage in Kentucky. Hill ‘n’ Dale at Xalapa now offers him at $10,000, half his opening fee, after his fourth book sank to just 38. Nobody could be surprised, given his own template, that he mustered only half a dozen winners from his first 36 juveniles. But the fact is that anyone far-sighted enough to support him now will be able to ride the wave as his strong early support from an ownership group including Juddmonte plays out (opened with 121, 89 and 69) in his maturing stock.

It’s tiresome to hear people talk so reverently about expanding turf opportunities, or the importance of soundness, when they don’t seem to respect even this nugget from the Juddmonte program: by one of the best-bred stallions in Europe out of a Classic-placed mare, he became its richest-ever graduate as a five-time Grade/Group I winner of $9.5 million (also dual Arc runner-up) whose turn of foot was measured at :44.56 for his closing half-mile in the GI Manhattan. His first crop of yearlings had fared reasonably well, clearing as many as 45 of 52 at $46,686, but 14 of 25 this time round scraped together a yield of $19,552. But you reap what you sow and if this industry can only make fast, precocious dirt horses pay, it will someday learn to regret it.

Mshawish | Taylor Made

Turf is only one of the strings to the bow of MSHAWISH (Medaglia d’Oro–Thunder Bayou, by Thunder Gulch), fourth of 19 in the G1 Prix du Jockey Club before being imported to win Grade Is, on both surfaces, at five and six. He has taken another cut at Taylor Made, now down to $7,500 from an opening $20,000, despite mustering a solid 13 winners from 42 starters.

That reflects the usual dwindling books (just 40 mares last spring, down from 117, 73 and 68) and a dip by his second crop of yearlings to an average $16,515, for 14 of 19 sold, down from $39,338 for 42 sales from 56 first time round. But he remains a very wholesome option with his seven consecutive triple-digit Beyers and average earnings of $100,000 per start through 24 races. His versatility is not just down to his sire, with a dam inbred 3×3 to Storm Bird; while his granddam is a half-sister to the mother of champion Halfbridled (Unbridled). As a longer play, still every chance.

The Albaugh Family team, which brought us Not This Time, offers a value alternative by the same sire in BRODY’S CAUSE (Giant’s Causeway–Sweet Breanna, by Sahm) at Spendthrift. He made quite an impression with his first juveniles: only half a dozen winners (from 29 starters) but they were good ones: two won at stakes level and four made the podium in graded stakes, notably GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin On Go and GI Starlet S. runner-up Kalypso, who has since won the GII Santa Ynez S. on the third day of her sophomore career.

Like Not This Time, he extends a regal bottom line: his fourth dam, indeed, is by Dr. Fager out of a Bold Ruler half-sister to Secretariat’s dam Somethingroyal. His second dam was Grade I-placed and Brody’s Cause himself won Grade I races at two and three and, while he didn’t last the course, had established himself among the best of his generation and looks a bet to nothing now that he is down to $5,000 from an opening $12,500. He does have some weight of numbers, too, with initial books of 101 and 110 before dipping to 63 and 49. After a promising debut at the sales (33 sold of 51 yearlings at $50,166), he was another to struggle with his second crop (27 sold of 34 at $25,596) but he is definitely, definitely still in the game–and a viable sanctuary for those priced out of Not This Time.

Hit It a Bomb | Spendthrift

On the same farm, HIT IT A BOMB (War Front–Liscanna {Ire}, by Sadler’s Wells) has given himself a squeak at the same fee–not just with GII Best Pal winner Weston among his handful of winners, but also with a startling $330,000 colt at Fasig-Tipton in September. That boosted his second-crop average to $47,916 for a dozen sold of 15, but even a $23,500 median was solid after 15 in his first crop averaged $30,153 (median $13,000).

These are hardly the industrial numbers familiar on this farm but actually he rallied to 47 mares last spring from a third book of just 20, after opening with 48 and 49. It’s all chlorophyll, obviously, but the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner is brother to another juvenile Group 1 scorer from a classy family.

Another down to the bottom tier at Spendthrift is CINCO CHARLIE (Indian Charlie–Ten Halos, by Marquetry), though he managed no fewer than 14 winners from just 31 starters, including one at stakes level. He also made quite a stir with a $200,000 filly at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-Year-Old Sale, albeit seven second-crop yearlings (from 10 into the ring) realized just $6,600 down from $20,944 (for 19 of 26) first time round. Cinco Charlie did match his precocity (GIII Bashford Manor S. second time out) with hardiness, racking up seven black-type wins in 18 starts, so don’t rule out farther progress; while his second dam is by none other than Halo.

We know to expect interesting stallions at Crestwood and TEXAS RED (Afleet Alex–Ramatuelle {Chi}, by Jeune Homme), rather wonderfully, has earned a hike in fee to $10,000 from $7,500 after pulling GII Sorrento S. winner My Girl Red out of his hat. She was among eight scorers from just 19 starters.

Texas Red will have to ride out a couple of quieter years but opening books of 81 and 67 give scope for consolidation and he was, after all, a brilliant runner. His 104 Beyer romping at the Breeders’ Cup was backed up in an interrupted sophomore campaign, beating Frosted in the GII Jim Dandy besides running a top-class sprinter in Lord Nelson (Pulpit) to a neck over seven furlongs. A classy South American family also makes him a very accommodating outcross.

Firing Line | Crestwood

Studmate FIRING LINE (Line of David–Sister Girl Blues, by Hold for Gold) works from a narrow base but had four winners from his 13 starters. He had sold 20 of 21 yearlings in his first crop, including a colt and filly that each made six figures, while one of his daughters soared to $210,000 at OBS in June. If things were quieter for his yearlings this time round, Firing Line retains plenty of interest on performance, denied a Grade I at two only by a nose and the Derby itself only by a Triple Crown winner; and also on pedigree, his dam a Grade I-placed sibling to the mothers of two Grade I-winning milers, their line extending to matriarchs Kamar (Key to the Mint) and Square Angel (Quadrangle).

Another to give striking encouragement from a small base is TAMARKUZ (Speightstown–Without You Babe, by Lemon Drop Kid) at Shadwell. From just 14 runners, he had five winners including GIII Bob Hope S. winner Red Flag and, though lacking numbers (third book was highest at 57), might merit a roll of the dice at $7,500 from an opening $12,500.

Having bowed out beating the next two winners of the Breeders’ Cup Classic in the GI Dirt Mile, Tamarkuz is out of a half-sister to two GI Belmont S. runners-up who has also produced a Group 1 miler in Without Parole (GB) (Frankel {GB}). You have to love a second dam by Storm Bird opposite his son Storm Cat as Speightstown’s damsire, and the maternal line tapers to some resonant names.

Wins from two to six suggest that his stock will keep flying the flag with maturity; and he also showed versatility in terms of surface. Though his first yearlings excelled, moving on 18 of 20 yearlings at $68,222, a handful of his second crop made no money to speak of. But one of only four hips at the 2-year-old sales made $160,000, and Tamarkuz should definitely interest anyone out there who might want to breed an actual racehorse for a small fee.

Beating Tamarkuz for the GII Kelso H. in 1:32.9 is the poster achievement for ANCHOR DOWN (Tapit–Successful Outlook, by Orientate), now $5,000 from an opening $10,000 at Gainesway. Eight winners from 18 runners was a very good start, given his small books, and he’s a half-brother to GI Test S. winner Sweet Lulu (Mr. Greeley). His sale yields are pretty standard for this level, but it should be noted that his clearance rate for both crops of yearlings were extremely high and he also went down well at the 2-year-old sales, with a $270,000 colt and $200,000 filly. Competition is obviously tough among heirs to the farm’s champion but less so at this level.

There are a handful of others in this intake whose numbers are too precarious to repay much dredging. But the likes of BIG BLUE KITTEN (Kitten’s Joy–Spent Gold, by Unaccounted For) and PRODUCER (GB) (Dutch Art {GB}–River Saint, by Irish River {Fr}) at Calumet, or V. E. DAY (English Channel–California Sunset, by Deputy Minister) at Buck Pond Farm, were always going to be longer-term projects and so remain entitled to repay perseverance.

And we should highlight a conspicuous achievement apiece by three who share the same, great damsire: $2,500 cover OPTIMIZER (English Channel–Indy Pick, by A.P. Indy) at Calumet, for pulling a $190,000 filly out of his hat at Keeneland in September; IRONICUS (Distorted Humor–Meghan’s Joy, by A.P. Indy) for coming up with an unbeaten stakes winner from his small footprint from Claiborne at $5,000; and PROTONICO (Giant’s Causeway–Alpha Spirit, by A.P. Indy), at the same fee, for a potentially game-changing start to 2021.

A rootless start to his stud career can hardly have helped his cause. Yet his three winners from eight starters include Medina Spirit, a $1,000 yearling who closed to within a length of the Derby favorite in the GIII Sham S. Protonico’s second dam is Chilean Horse of the Year and Grade I winner Wild Spirit (Chi) (Hussonet), and a half-length miss in the GI Clark H. left him cents short of millionaire status. Medina Spirit is the kind of flagship that would be trumpeted from the rooftops by farms who throw 200 mares at rookie stallions, so to come up with this dude from an opening book of 34 entitles Castleton Lyons to hope that he could yet claw his way from the back lanes to the highway.

That’s the kind of frayed highwire all these horses are walking now. And while many will lose their footing, the great thing is that some of them are suddenly going to break into a run.

CHRIS McGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM
Gold: Frosted ($25,000, Darley)
A champion at the right distance, out of a Deputy Minister mare, and no less likely to succeed now than when he was $50,000.
Silver: Upstart ($10,000, Airdrie)
His record and pedigree guarantee that a fine start by his juveniles is only the beginning.
Bronze: Speightster ($10,000, WinStar)
A lot of people seem adamant that he’s about to take off.

The post Kentucky Sires for 2021: First Sophomores–Part II appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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KY Value Sires for 2021: First Foals: Part II

Thursday, Chris McGrath covered the first half of the Kentucky stallions with first weanlings. Click here to read about Omaha Beach, Vino Rosso, Mitole, Audible, Catholic Boy and Yoshida. Part II appears below.

Unusually enough, this intake includes a third Grade I winner on both dirt and grass in WORLD OF TROUBLE (Kantharos–Meets Expectations by Valid Expectations), held at $15,000 by Hill ‘n’ Dale. This was an unusually efficient machine for the chaotic environment of the sprint division. His only defeat in his final eight starts measured by the neck of champion Stormy Liberal (Stormy Atlantic) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint–when clocking the highest sophomore Beyer of the year. Though the GI Jaipur S. unfortunately proved to be his final bow, the scorch-marks have probably still to grow out of the turf after fractions of :21.99, :43.85 and 1:06.37.

He has an unsurprisingly brisk pedigree, out of a half-sister to one of his sire’s earlier stars in Bucchero, a fast and hardy stakes performer five seasons running and himself adaptable in terms of racing surface. World Of Trouble started with 107 mares and you’d expect somebody, somewhere, to hit a home run at the 2-year-old sales.

In contrast with all these switch-hitters, CATALINA CRUISER (Union Rags–Sea Gull by Mineshaft) offers an unadulterated dirt profile at Lane’s End, where he is given a tempting trim from $20,000 to $15,000 after covering 148 mares–the kind of number seldom exceeded at another farm that tends to resist market inundation.

There were times when this horse looked a genuine monster and, if needing maturity before drawing out the full capacity loaded into his brawn, nor did he mess around once getting going. He won over six furlongs on debut before clocking a 107 Beyer next time and then stretched out to take his first couple of Grade IIs by an aggregate 14 lengths. If his overall body of work was compressed (nine lifetime starts), its execution was remarkably purposeful (seven wins, six triple-digit Beyers, five Grade IIs). When he resumed at five, accordingly, he set a stakes record of 1:14.85 over 6.5 furlongs in the GII True North S.

Catalina Cruiser is a beast of a horse, a $370,000 KEESEP yearling, and I love that his half-brother Eagle (Candy Ride {Arg}) was also such a set-your-clock talent in graded stakes across four seasons. Their fourth dam is the Grade I-placed mother of Mt. Livermore (Blushing Groom {Fr}) and the pedigree is saturated with speed-carrying influences: Northern Dancer, Mr. Prospector, Seattle Slew and Secretariat all recur top and bottom, yet all back far enough to accommodate farther inbreeding. There’s something appealingly old-school about this big, bad, dirt bruiser, brimming with tractable energy, and he looks among the most attractive value of the intake at his new fee.

Our pick, when they were launched, was a pretty similar type in PRESERVATIONIST (Arch–Flying Dixie by Dixieland Band), who maintains a fee of $10,000 at Airdrie after managing a three-figure debut book. He may not be champion freshman, any more than was Blame (now doing so well in the cause of their sire). But anyone persisting in the quaint scheme of actually trying to breed a runner will be salivating: sire and dam both trace to King Ranch royalty, in Courtly Dee and Too Chic respectively, and the “stairwell” through his fourth generation doesn’t have a single creaking step.

If a slow burn, in terms of maturity, Preservationist was always fleet on the track and set a 3 1/2 Ragozin breaking his maiden at six furlongs. And he finished up as one of the best in the land, routing Catholic Boy (More Than Ready) by 4 1/2 lengths in the GII Suburban S. before sealing his Grade I in the Woodward S., beating the likes of Yoshida (Heart’s Cry {Jpn}) and Tom’s d’Etat (Smart Strike), whose good run signalled an admirable late bloom of his own.

Regardless, this is one of those cases where a horse only has to establish a basic competence for elite company to justify breeders in enthusiastically drilling such aristocratic seams. He is the 18th graded stakes winner under his first three dams, and looks the part too: he was a $475,000 KEESEP yearling, and we know his sire didn’t always get the commercial traction he merited.

We also know that the legacy of Arch is well worth preserving-making his last heir pretty aptly named. In fact, he sets a pretty fundamental challenge to all breeders. If you want to conserve the breed’s genetic family silver, while hopefully putting winners on your mare’s page at a sensible price, then Preservationist is a sire you have to consider. It’s a free country, of course, and you’re welcome to turn your back. If you do, however, you must at least admit to yourself what you’re prepared to throw away in the hope of making a faster buck. But look again at that pedigree and ask yourself whether any other $10,000 stallion could surprise you less, if siring a Classic winner?

His Airdrie buddy DIVISIDERO (Kitten’s Joy–Madame Du Lac by Lemon Drop Kid) is also backed up by a royal family, tracing to Cosmah/Almahmoud. This is obviously as potent as blood gets, uniting breed-shapers Halo and Northern Dancer and Danehill, albeit with a strong flavor of chlorophyll, not just through Kitten’s Joy, but also Nashwan and Sadler’s Wells–European titans responsible for Divisidero’s second and third dams.

Divisidero parlayed this inheritance into five consecutive seasons of graded stakes success, accumulating $1.6 million and 13 triple-digit Beyers. While his longevity attests to his durability and consistency, he also landed running: he won three of his first four, within 16 weeks of starting, his finishing kick earning a track record at Belmont as well as a Grade II on Derby day; that set him up to return and win the GI Woodford Reserve Turf Classic on the same card each of the next two years, meanwhile beaten barely a length in the GI Breeders’ Cup Mile.

People talk a good game about responding to the expansion of the turf/synthetics program in North America, but not many had the wit to see how much horse they were being offered here for $7,500. Maybe a trim to $5,000 will help to concentrate minds, because Divisidero has every right to sire an elite turf runner. Just run your eye down the four mares behind his dam’s grandparents: Miesque, Lassie Dear, Height Of Fashion and an unraced daughter of Cosmah and Round Table. That’s just one duchess after another. Needless to say, in an era when only deserving mares could get to top-class stallions, all were suitably paired as well. In other words, whatever filters through can only be the good stuff.

ENTICED (Medaglia d’Oro–It’s Tricky by Mineshaft) represents an El Prado line that has achieved a lot more commercial traction, being adaptable to dirt–on which surface, indeed, his dam won three Grade Is. Having disappeared after an anonymous run in the 2018 GI Kentucky Derby, and unfortunately failed to reward perseverance at four, he was something of a forgotten horse by the time he returned to his native farm, Jonabell, last spring. Nonetheless 148 mares kept the faith at $10,000, driven by his juvenile accomplishments (third in the GI Champagne S. before winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.) and a physique that quite strongly echoes his glamorous sire. A clip to $7,500 should keep him in the game.

FLAMEAWAY (Scat Daddy–Vulcan Rose by Fusaichi Pegasus) finished just in front of Enticed when likewise a longshot in the Derby and never really lived up to his earlier defeat of Catholic Boy and Vino Rosso in the 2018 GIII Sam F. Davis S. But precocity will cover a multitude of sins, and it’s amazing how far you can get if you win sprinting in May and proceed to stakes success at the Spa. Like, this far: 183 mares at $7,500 in his first season at Darby Dan (a fee he duly retains).

In fairness, Flameaway demonstrated the versatility associated with his sire as a winner on three surfaces; won stakes at two, three and four; and, a $400,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga yearling, can point to European queen Flame Of Tara (Ire) (Artaius) as his third dam.

It was always obvious that MAXIMUS MISCHIEF (Into Mischief–Reina Maria by Songandaprayer) would have them lining down the street at Spendthrift at the same fee. For here, alongside the farm’s elite recruits, was a luminous commercial prospect priced to serve the kind of clientele who had helped to launch his sire, himself now far beyond the reach of most. Sure enough, he received 196 into the harem.

Never having resurfaced after his first defeat, in the GII Holy Bull, Maximus Mischief left breeders to concentrate on a trailblazing, three-for-three campaign at two, by an aggregate 17 lengths, crowned in the GII Remsen S. Consecutive Beyers of 94, 98 and 97 qualified him as the fastest of the crop, and also as the fastest juvenile by his sire–whose early mares we know, as a rule, to have brought limited pages. As such, it’s a rare bonus to for Maximus Mischief’s dam to be a half-sister to Secret Compass (Discreet Cat), a Grade I winner at two. And he has physical presence, too, with rather more length and size than tends to be associated with a sire who certainly imparted his copyright brilliance.

Whatever happens with the top guns of the intake, you can be sure the guys at Spendthrift won’t lose their flair for this type. A fee like this, for a horse like this, was always going to generate a stampede. If he gets the odd bullet at the 2-year-old sales, people will soon be talking about the freshman’s championship, and, if they turn out to be right, Maximus Mischief will be passing a lot of these going the other way on the stairs. It feels a little cynical to buy into such a self-fulfilling cycle, but with that monster book behind him there’s an air of inevitability about this horse.

The fifth newcomer at Spendthrift last winter was COAL FRONT (Stay Thirsty–Miner’s Secret by Mineshaft), who covered 89 mares at $5,000. He’s an arresting physical, as a $575,000 OBSAPR 2-year-old, and a miler who clocked his briskest numbers sprinting. Nonetheless the right mares should draw out that speed through a second turn: both his parents share A.P. Indy as a grandsire, while his third dam is by A.P. Indy’s sire Seattle Slew. He’s a looker, too.

The others comprising this bottom tier of the Kentucky market share a grass orientation. Claiborne lives up to its best traditions in importing a precious European sire-line through DEMARCHELIER (GB) (Dubawi (Ire)–Loveisallyouneed (Ire) by Sadler’s Wells), who sailed through his maiden, allowance and graded stakes debut before breaking down in the GI Belmont Derby. Actually he represents a pretty rare blend even in Europe, his family having served Ballydoyle so well–three full sisters of the unraced dam were at least placed in Classics–while Dubawi has been vital to the Maktoums’ cause, increasingly now as a sire of sires as well. Demarchelier mustered 102 mares for his first season, which looks pretty purposeful in this corner of the market, so he’s a very interesting experiment.

HEART TO HEART (English Channel–Ask The Question by Silver Deputy) is yet another to keep us interested in the always imaginative Crestwood roster. What a template for any end-user: over $2 million banked through 15 wins in 41 starts across seven (!) campaigns, embracing 11 graded stakes wins and 18 triple-digit Beyers. And to think this winner of consecutive Grade Is at the age of seven had started out as a summer juvenile winning by eight lengths at 5.5 furlongs!

We know his sire to be under-rated, but his first two dams bring in glorious influences (respectively by Deputy Minister’s son Silver Deputy and Caro’s son Cozzene), while the second is also a sibling to a Grade I winner. If only bigger farms thought like this one, the breed would be heading in a much healthier direction.

LOST TREASURE (War Front-Wading {Ire} by Montjeu {Ire}) represents a succulent blend of Northern Dancer’s most potent blood in Europe, apparently drawing more on his sire’s speed than the Classic stamina of the family that gave us Galileo (Ire) and Sea The Stars (Ire). He got within a length of stunning Europe’s fastest sprinters at 100-1 in the G1 Prix de l’Abbaye, but never really followed through on that run. It’s now up to the reliable enterprise of Hill ‘n’ Dale to prevent him also slipping through the net in his second career.

Another confined to a small debut book was QURBAAN (Speightstown–Flip Flop {Fr} by Zieten). After starting his career in Europe, he found the American theater rather more to his liking with a couple of Grade II wins and multiple Grade I placings. Whatever he lacks in quantity will doubtless be redressed in quality at Shadwell.

CHRIS MCGRATH’S VALUE PODIUM:

Gold: Maximus Mischief ($7,500, Spendthrift)

Big first book spells potential freshman honors and all the momentum that entails.

Silver: Preservationist ($10,000, Airdrie)

May need longer than Maximus Mischief, but given the chance he has the bloodlines to breed champions.

Bronze: Omaha Beach ($35,000, Spendthrift)

Really, the gold standard: fairly priced fairly starting out, and even easier to stick with him now.

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