kentucky stallions | Horse Racing Free Tips

Taking Stock: Mr. Prospector is the Most Influential

A few weeks ago, I was a guest on the weekly Going In Circles podcast, which is hosted by Chuck Simon, the former trainer who's also a top-notch writer at his blog, and Barry “The Sniper” Spears, an excellent handicapper and well-known figure on Twitter. Simon asked for my opinion on which stallion I'd consider to be the most influential of the past 50 years. You can listen to a nine-minute clip of the conversation here. My answer? Claiborne's iconic Mr. Prospector, of course.

The clip generated quite a bit of interest and debate on social media. Simon kept Northern Dancer out of the equation, and I made my selection on North American-based stallions whose careers had begun within the 50-year window. Mr. Prospector, a son of Raise a Native from Gold Digger, by Nashua, was born in 1970–the same year as Secretariat and Forego–and entered stud in 1975 in Florida. This timeframe eliminated not only Northern Dancer but also Raise a Native, another icon.

Mr. Prospector's stud career and substantial influence has been thoroughly documented through the years from the time he went to stud until his death in 1999 at the age of 29. All told, he sired 1,195 foals and 182 black-type winners, a ratio of 15% from foals– not starters. These days top stallions are lucky to hit 10%.

Fifty-odd years since his birth, Mr. Prospector's influence is still palpable. Five of the top 10 sires on the general sire list of 2022– Quality Road, Curlin, Gun Runner, Speightstown, and Munnings–trace in tail-male descent to him, as do four of the top 10 broodmare sires–Street Cry (Ire), Smart Strike, Distorted Humor, and Unbridled's Song.

In 2015, John Sparkman wrote a piece in Daily Racing Form titled “Mr. Prospector line has no American equal” that said in part, “…Mr. Prospector now stands at the head of the most successful classic sire line in the United States. His fifth-generation male-line descendant American Pharoah, who broke a 37-year Triple Crown drought with his Belmont Stakes victory on June 6, is the 32nd American classic winner descending in male line from Mr. Prospector dating back to when his son Conquistador Cielo won the Belmont in 1982.”

According to Sparkman, the Northern Dancer line was second to Mr. Prospector in this timeframe, with 17 Classic winners.

Since then, the Mr. Prospector line is responsible for an additional seven Classic winners in the U.S., the most recent of which was last year's Gl Preakness winner Early Voting (Gun Runner). The Northern Dancer line also has had another seven.

If the Classics are the gauge, Mr. Prospector's impact on them certainly makes him the most influential stallion of the last 50 years.

Florida to Claiborne

Mr. Prospector, who was bred by Leslie Combs ll, topped the 1971 Keeneland July sale at $220,000. He was purchased by A.I. “Butch” Savin's AISCO Stable and trained by Jimmy Croll, but he wasn't a Classic horse himself; he was sprinter, and a brilliantly fast one when he was sound. On the same day that Savin's Regal and Royal won the Gl Florida Derby, defeating Forego by three lengths, Mr. Prospector set the track record for six furlongs at Gulfstream in 1:07 4/5, winning by nine lengths in his third start.

Mr. Prospector, who was unraced at two, would go on to win seven of 14 starts, including the Gravesend and Whirlaway while contemporaries Secretariat won the Triple Crown and Forego three Horse of the Year titles.

Mr. Prospector attained his legendary status in the breeding shed, and improbably at that. Savin retired him to stud inexpensively at his AISCO Stable in Florida, far away from the best broodmares in Kentucky, but Mr. Prospector simply had what it took to overcome lesser mares. From his first crop, he got 1978 Eclipse champion 2-year-old filly It's in the Air, among others. Fappiano, a Grade l winner and top racehorse who became an influential stallion himself, was a member of Mr. Prospector's second crop. Another future successful stallion, Grade l-placed Crafty Prospector, was from Mr. Prospector's fourth crop.

Peter Brant | Sid Fernando

Peter Brant, who picked up an Eclipse award for Regal Glory (Animal Kingdom) as top turf filly or mare last week, was among the first owner-breeders to notice Mr. Prospector's prepotency and was instrumental in acquiring Mr. Prospector and moving him to Kentucky for the 1981 breeding season. I spoke last week to Brant, whose White Birch Farm is in Connecticut, of how he was able to move the stallion from AISCO to Claiborne.

“Butch Savin was in the concrete mix business in Connecticut. When he had Mr. Prospector, he lived in Connecticut and also in Boca Raton in Florida. I started to notice this horse was getting some nice horses from some cheap mares, as I was looking up stallion stats to see who to breed to, and this horse was looking very, very good, so I made it my business to meet Butch Savin. I would go down to Boca Raton, because at the time I was playing polo in Wellington. I kind of lived in Florida three months of the year while I was playing polo. So, I would go down to Boca–he had a condominium overlooking the ocean–and I would pick him up; he had a favorite Chinese restaurant and we would go there and sit and talk of the future plans of Mr. Prospector.

“I'd called Seth Hancock up and told him this horse was the real deal, and Seth was interested but the horse was in Florida and the horse was good with cheap mares but would he do well on the Kentucky circuit against those other stallions, especially the ones Seth was carrying at the time,” Brant said.

“Anyway, I'm talking to Butch and I tell him why don't we move the horse to Kentucky, and he says, 'Well, I'm not going to move. I have a farm in Florida.' And I said, 'Why don't you stay in on the horse, and we'll move him to Kentucky?' So, I'm talking to Seth and Butch Savin–it was really like arbitraging Seth and Butch Savin–and it wasn't the easiest job in the world. Finally, Butch agreed to move the horse to Kentucky and said he would stay in on the horse. I was going to keep like a third of the horse, and Seth was going to syndicate the rest of him. You know, Seth did a great job syndicating him–he had the best owners in there. And then Savin says, 'I don't want to stay in on the horse. I'm not, realistically, going to send any mares up to Kentucky.' So, he didn't stay in. And we paid real money for the horse. It was probably between $175,000 to $200,000 per share, and there were 40 shares.

“I ended up keeping a third, and as the prices went up I'd spin off some shares. You know, at one point he was standing for $300,000 no guarantee. He was a very valuable horse, and what made him a great investment for everybody involved was that the shares went to over a million dollars. And what made him even more valuable was he was one of the few stallions who was breeding to more mares back then, and so you basically got an extra season every other year. Back then, horses were breeding 40 to 48 mares, and he was breeding 64, 65 mares, up to 70. And so it was a very good deal, and he also lived a very long life and was fertile for a long time.”

And he sired some of the best colts and fillies of his era, and they in turn became sires and dams of other high-quality stock, and the cycle kept continuing.

And it keeps continuing, which is why Mr. Prospector is the most influential sire of the last 50 years in North America.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

The post Taking Stock: Mr. Prospector is the Most Influential appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Value Sires, Part II: First Foals in ’22

Even last year, when doing so much to fortify breeders through the uncertainties of the pandemic, stallion farms appeared to price their rookies to squeeze the usual juice from the commercial market's greatest addiction.

That was fair enough. Nowadays farm accountants can bank only on the most fleeting of vogues in drawing up a business plan for stallion acquisitions. And nor can we sensibly expect any slack now, pending the arrival of first foals and then a debut at the weanling sales next fall. A stallion has to be in pretty obvious trouble to have his fee significantly trimmed for his second season, as a candid devaluation will be received as a blatant kick by those who were prepared to assist in getting him going.

In principle, then, not a great deal can have changed since we first sieved this group last winter. Certainly I can't imagine anyone pays the remotest attention to “covering sire” averages, which are so transparently incidental to the inherent value of such mares as randomly happen to be offered. The one new ingredient in play, then, tends to be the size of debut books.

For the vast majority, in numerical terms, the only way from here is down. As such, the covering stats do not augur terribly well for some of those we thought best value. And maddeningly, because these cycles are so self-fulfilling, it's hard to turn things round if you do struggle for early traction. A disappointing first book places a tough burden on its graduates to get you over the hump of the intervening couple of crops, which will tend to be smaller yet. So our faith in one or two, while undiminished, may not obviously yield “value” in the shorter term. If fairly priced now, at least measured by your odds of getting a runner, they are probably going to become better value yet during the next year or two.

At the other end of the spectrum, though the most expensive of the intake, Horse of the Year Authentic covered as many as 229 mares–only one fewer than the busiest stallion in the land, Goldencents. (Both, of course, are sons of Into Mischief standing alongside their champion sire at Spendthrift.) A number of other start-ups also welcomed enormous books: Vekoma 222, McKinzie 214, Instagrand 190, Thousand Words 184, Volatile 181, and Global Campaign and Improbable 177 apiece. One way or another, then, some highly eligible prospects are going to have their work cut out to match the kind of freshman headlines some of these rivals are bound to seize through sheer weight of numbers.

So between these high-water marks, and those struggling near the storm drain, where can we still seek a rising tide? Here are one or two thoughts–as subjective as ever, and with due apology to the many promising types overlooked in our more concise new format.

Bubbling under: Hard to know whether a commercial market so childishly nervous of grass influences will do adequate justice to a great opportunity in War of Will (War Front). But it's hugely encouraging that this Grade I winner on both dirt and turf, by a son of one breed-shaper out of the daughter of another, was overrun with 143 partners at $25,000: by the laudably conservative standards of his farm, an outright stampede. War of Will merits close consideration by European breeders, too, with every right to become a valuable international influence.

Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) has been given a trademark Spendthrift launch with a monster book at $20,000. All farms that operate this kind of system obviously offer yearling sellers a double-edged sword, but Vekoma, from the family of Street Sense and Danehill Dancer (Ire) among others, represents a promising sire of sires and can certainly recycle a ton of speed and class. Of those who corralled such big numbers, this guy looks value to make them count–even before a friendly trim to $17,500.

One of the most controversial races in Derby history, in contrast, is struggling for commercial credibility. But you can't have it both ways: if some people have decided to punish the hapless Maximum Security (who gets a fee cut) for allegations against his trainer, then at least they should give Country House (Lookin At Lucky) due respect. As it is, he was unlucky to be denied the opportunity of authenticating his breakthrough; and nor did he then get quite the numbers he deserved when sent to Darby Dan at just $7,500. Someday, perhaps, he will finally get some overdue credit by proxy, and sire a colt to pass the Derby post first. Inbred to the Sam-Son matriarch No Class, that's something he is absolutely entitled to do and, like his sire, he remains excellent value for those of sufficiently independent outlook.

Global Campaign | Sarah Andrew

Bronze: GLOBAL CAMPAIGN (Curlin–Globe Trot, by A.P. Indy)
$12,500 WinStar

I suspect that this guy is going to prove a brisker influence in his new career than might be anticipated. Yes, he was unraced at two (albeit only by a matter of days, scoring on debut Jan. 5); and nor did he try Grade I company until his last two starts at four, when winning the Woodward and outrunning his odds for third in the Breeders' Cup Classic. But if people won't be expecting too much, too soon, from a son of Curlin whose first two dams are by A.P. Indy and Lord At War (Arg)–both, incidentally, stellar distaff influences–this is a family that can inject surprising doses of speed.

That second dam, herself a three-time graded stakes winner, is a half-sister to the dam of Zensational (Unbridled's Song), whose three Grade I sprints qualify him as the fastest son of his sire. The next dam was a half-sister to the dams of one sprinter that broke the five-furlong track record at Churchill, and of another that did the same over six furlongs (turf) at Woodbine. And of course Global Campaign's half-brother Bolt d'Oro was hardly a standard issue Medaglia d'Oro (not that there's any such thing, really) in featuring a 103 Beyer in his champion juvenile campaign. Sure enough, Global Campaign outpaced a smart sprinter in Yorkton (Speightstown) over seven furlongs at Gulfstream on his 4-year-old comeback, and I have a hunch that he didn't quite last home at the Breeders' Cup. Having controlled the tempo when winning over nine furlongs, I wonder how he might have fared given more of a chance at a mile.

Regardless, a debut book of 177 is a major leg-up, and due reward for realistic pricing. I'm not saying that Global Campaign will necessarily have loads of precocious juveniles, but expect him to achieve a viable base and then to consolidate. Factor in his fee, and he rather sets himself apart from those with even bigger books: most are more expensive, and others don't obviously match his eligibility to sire the type of horses we should all be looking for.

Honor A. P. | Amy Lanigan

Silver: HONOR A. P. (Honor Code–Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
$15,000 Lane's End

Still fantastic value, still a whole lot of racehorse for this money. And I cling stubbornly to the belief that he was as talented as any of his generation, beating the Horse of the Year on merit the only time they met properly toe-to-toe (undercooked for their first encounter; undone by a shocking trip in their third).

The only reason he doesn't retain the top step is that a book of 110, which should be ample in a sane world, may contain some that emulate their sire in only really announcing themselves round a second turn, and maybe with a little maturity too (bearing in mind that imposing physique). The book of 190 assembled by the precocious Instagrand, for instance, is presumably more likely to produce maiden winners at Keeneland's spring meet. It's possible, then, that the notoriously myopic commercial market might not grant Honor A. P. due attention until the playing field starts to level out.

Once through that crossroads, however, those who do hang in there will definitely have the last laugh. And remember that a horse this beautiful, in the meantime, almost guarantees a home run or two at the sales. Honor A. P. must have been close to the most prodigious physical of the crop, as measured by his $850,000 yearling tag; while his dam won Grade Is at two and five, a comfort in view of the way his own light career restricted wider appreciation of his talent. She has also contributed three other black-type operators to a branch of the Myrtlewood dynasty (Global Campaign, incidentally, represents another) that has been seeded pretty seamlessly by venerable Classic influences.

Honor A. P. absolutely merits fidelity, and will someday make this fee look like a gift.

Complexity | Sarah Andrew

Gold: COMPLEXITY (Maclean's Music–Goldfield, by Yes It's True)
$12,500 Airdrie

How does Complexity elbow his way right through to the top of the podium? Not too complex, really. For one thing, his farewell performance in the GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile has obtained a fresh luster: trying to lie up with Knicks Go (Paynter) from a wide draw, through opening splits of 22.15 and 22.39 (producing a faster six furlongs than in the Sprint on the same card), has turned out to be a still tougher ask than it seemed at the time–especially round a second turn, which was probably not Complexity's true metier. This time last year, moreover, Maclean's Music was still available at $25,000. A breakout Grade I exacta this summer has doubled his fee, requiring smaller breeders to ponder his potential as a sire of sires instead. Above all, however, Complexity received no fewer than 158 mares in his debut book: as close to oversubscription as this model farm will allow.

That puts him right in the center of the conversation for the freshmen's championship. Remember he made all for his emphatic GI Champagne S. success, as indeed he had when thrashing future Grade II and stakes winners on debut in Saratoga. Complexity regrouped after a troubled sophomore campaign to be just nailed in the GI Forego S., after again sharing a wild tempo out wide, and all you need to know about his build is that Mike Ryan gave $375,000 to make him the most expensive yearling in his sire's third crop.

You can anticipate voracious pinhooking interest in his yearlings and, while the left-field sires of his first three dams get credit primarily for variegation, they do represent august lines (Bold Ruler, Bold Ruler, Never Bend). As with American Pharoah, for instance, the important thing is that the genetic cocktail is plainly functioning potently. And don't forget that Complexity's dam has also produced a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up, and she's out of an 11-time winner who ran second at Grade II level.

This horse couldn't be in better hands and, having gained a good deal while others have more or less had to stand and wait, everything is in place to elevate the value of any investments made in him now.

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Value Sires for 2022, Part 1: New Stallions

Welcome to our annual winter survey of Kentucky stallion options–with the difference, this time round, that the emphasis will be far more strictly and succinctly on value.

Over the past couple of years, acknowledging of the brevity of commercial momentum for so many sires once losing their freshman luster, we've got into the habit of granting some attention (more or less courteous!) to just about every stallion in the Bluegrass. But such an exhaustive approach has doubtless proved still more exhausting for the reader than for the compiler.

So, we've resolved to cut to the chase: the most horse for your buck. We'll still be taking each intake in turn, starting here with the new recruits; and we'll briefly assess their overall state of play before making and attempting to justify our selections for the Value Podium. We'll also acknowledge one or two who got close–while omitting more than enough names for no damning inferences to be made…

Of course, it's a wholly subjective exercise. Different stallions fit different mares. Okay, so maybe I would be more inclined than some to try and breed a horse that can actually run, when for many people selling must be the pragmatic priority. But I do persist in the naïve belief that there should be nothing more commercial, in the medium term, than putting a few winners under your mare.

No apologies either, then, for reiterating the usual caveat that almost every new stallion will turn out to be standing at a career-high fee. For every rookie that eventually hits a home run, a dozen will end up packing their bags either for a regional program or overseas.

This observation tends to annoy some people, who complain that proven sires are beyond reach and that you have to try and get ahead of the curve with an untested commodity. But I just don't buy that, when so many affordable stallions are shunned despite showing a consistent ability to get runners. As it is, stallion farms have an ever-narrowing window to retrieve their investment before everyone moves onto the next turn of the carousel. It's not the way they'd choose; and nor are the breeders really to blame. We in the media are certainly complicit, but the real fault rests with those directing investment at ringside.

Regardless, the object of this exercise isn't to identify the prospect “most likely”. If you were doing that, you would plainly start with the blatantly credentialed Essential Quality (Tapit), the sensationally talented Charlatan (Speightstown) or the knockout physical Maxfield (Street Sense). But these are priced accordingly (at $75,000, $50,000 and $40,000) and we're trying to find fees that improve your odds.

True, value can be found at all levels of the market: sometimes the most expensive stallion may actually be more competitively priced than cheaper peers. And this does feel like a fairly ordinary intake, in terms of depth. But it's going to be hard for any rookie to advance his fee, when this is the one opportunity for stud accountants to bank on some demand. Still, we can but try.

Bubbling under: It's rare for an animal as accomplished as Knicks Go to go to stud at so restrained a fee. Whether access to the Horse of the Year elect for just $30,000 at TaylorMade will produce commercial dividends simply depends on how far the market acknowledges that.

Paynter puts him in a tricky place. On the one hand, Knicks Go can't pretend to be a son of Tapit, like Essential Quality. On the other, if he confirms his sire to be terrific value, then you can access the proven fount of his excellence even more inexpensively.

His first three dams, moreover, are by left-field names in Outflanker, Allens Prospect and Medaille d'Or. But these are respectively sons of Danzig (out of a half-sister to Weekend Surprise), Mr. Prospector and Secretariat. Given that Paynter's own mother represents a dynasty that unexpectedly evolved into royalty, it's not as though we are short of viable genetic explanations for Knicks Go.

Remember that his dam deployed stakes speed through four seasons–so anticipating her son's remarkable 2-1-1 Breeders' Cup record at ages two, four and five. The bottom line is that he's standing at a much lower fee than a couple that couldn't lay a glove on him, and nobody should be at all surprised to see him prove his elite caliber all over again.

A quick word for Modernist, a sufficiently respectable racehorse to deserve an opportunity to recycle some illustrious genes from Darby Dan at $10,000. Uncle Mo appears to be a precocious sire of sires, and the same adjective applies to the late Bernardini as a broodmare sire: Modernist is out of a Bernardini half-sister to Breeders' Cup winners Sweet Catomine and Life Is Sweet (both by Storm Cat). And I like an influence as robust as Kris S. behind both the second dam and Uncle Mo's mother, who is by his son Arch.

BRONZE: TACITUS (Tapit–Close Hatches by First Defence)

TaylorMade Stallions $10,000

No doubt Tacitus lost quite a lot of friends in winning just one of his last 12 races. But that record definitely didn't do justice to the ability he had shown in winning his maiden, the GII Tampa Bay Derby (stakes record) and GII Wood Memorial on his way to making the Derby frame via a wide trip. Arguably he was again undone by race position when contriving to lose the GI Belmont S. to Sir Winston (Awesome Again), but he soon ran out of excuses in thereafter mustering only a romp against overmatched rivals in the GII Suburban S.

He did subsequently manage a creditable fourth in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, but the hope that he might piece everything back together this time round backfired horribly when he surfaced only in October, to no great effect, after trying his luck in the desert in February.

But while there were clearly issues ultimately thwarting his fulfilment, Tacitus had shown authentic glimpses of class–sufficient, certainly, to be worth a second chance in his new career. Because none of the stallions in this intake can surpass his genetic package, and he has been priced to tempt even the wariest.

Obviously, he is by a champion stallion out of a champion mare. But the real excitement comes from the sheer depth of a family tree tracing, via a branch cultivated through three generations by Juddmonte, to one of the great modern matriarchs in fifth dam Best In Show (Traffic Judge). The dynasty has repeatedly flashed its continued vitality this year, while this particular branch has another young stallion starting out in Japan in Siskin. That Irish Classic winner shares his sire First Defence with the dam of Tacitus, five-time Grade I winner Close Hatches, along with her unhappily-named sister Lockdown (made the frame in the GI Kentucky Oaks). First Defence, incidentally, is by a son of Unbridled out of Seattle Slew mare–none other than Honest Lady, from Toussaud's brood of Grade I winners–while Tapit is by a grandson of Seattle Slew out of an Unbridled mare.

All in all, then, Tacitus has the kind of seamless pedigree that would have warranted a roll of the dice in, say, a top regional program even if he had never made it onto the track. As it is, he showed enough ability to bank $3.7 million. Conceivably, then, you're looking at a sire who could emulate Tapit himself by redeeming at stud a degree of underachievement on the racetrack.

SILVER: SILVER STATE (Hard Spun–Supreme by Empire Maker)

Claiborne $20,000

Who else could get the silver medal than a horse bearing this name? There's an instant, old-school resonance to a GI Met Mile winner standing at a farm like this, and Claiborne tend to give clients a very fair chance in pricing their new stallions.

It would clearly be edifying for Hard Spun, as our youngest connection to Danzig, to come up with one or two worthy heirs and Silver State developed a pretty eligible profile with maturity. Having only been pushing the margins of the Derby trail as a Fair Grounds sophomore, Hard Spun became an exemplary project for his barn, regrouping after a lay-off to run up a six-timer as he progressed through the grades. He tapered off thereafter, but he had established himself as a tough and classy miler who had put some Danzig pep into a page with plenty of stretch.

Arguably, in fact, he might have flourished from better opportunity to explore his stamina. Certainly, the seeding of his family entitles Silver State to sire Classic types: his graded stakes-placed dam is by Empire Maker; his granddam is a sister to Monarchos, their mother being by Dixieland Band; and the fourth dam is by the doughty influence Roberto out of a half-sister to the mother of Dynaformer.

Roberto recurs in Silver State's pedigree as sire of Hard Spun's granddam, and so flags up the key to why this horse can be a still better stallion than he was a racehorse. For he combines Darby Dan royalty top and bottom. That Roberto granddam was a half-sister to Little Current, which means she was in turn out of a half-sister to two other farm legends in Chateaugay and Primonetta.

I can only imagine that Darby Dan would have loved to welcome Silver State “home” to the farm that cultivated the families of both sire and dam. As it is, it feels apt enough that he retires to the farm that stood his grandsire Danzig. You can measure Silver State's physique by his $450,000 yearling tag, while he won a race that has historically announced many a stallion by making them run that sweeping Belmont mile round a single turn, on a single, speed-carrying gasp.

Pedigree, check. Physique, check. Performance, check. If that's not enough for you, good luck.

GOLD: KNOWN AGENDA (Curlin–Byrama (GB) by Byron {GB})

Spendthrift $10,000

There's been a lot of water under the bridge since, but it's definitely worth rowing back to the spring and remembering how unequivocally blinkers had confirmed Known Agenda's place among the sophomore elite. He would hardly be the first good horse to derail in the Triple Crown series–and the Derby definitely didn't set up for his strengths anyway–and fortunately he had shown the commercial sense to win what is nowadays treated as an almost automatic signpost to stallion stardom, the GI Florida Derby.

A trend like that should not be embraced too literally, of course, but in this case his success corroborated a breakout 11-length romp in blinkers on his previous start. His raw talent had never been in doubt, after the Aqueduct maiden in which he dragged Greatest Honour–to me, still the most flamboyant talent in the crop–21 lengths clear of a colt that subsequently proved his own graded-stakes caliber.

Known Agenda (Curlin) has a most attractive shape to his pedigree, combining a two-turn big hitter on the main track with first and second dams of mutually contrasting profile: respectively a Grade I winner by a sprinting grandson of Danzig, and a daughter of a Classic distaff influence in Europe, Darshaan (GB), himself a son of the copper-bottomed stamina tap Shirley Heights (GB). If the damsire is unfamiliar, Europeans will recall the speed he inherited from both parents; and his bloodlines are regal. There are seams of gold along Known Agenda's bottom line, too: it gave us the redoubtable European influence Pharly (Fr), for instance; the third dam beat an aggregate 59 rivals in winning three consecutive sprints as a juvenile; and among the strands of the indispensable Princequillo are both Round Table and his full sister.

Known Agenda did enough on the track to suggest that he was blending the best of both worlds: speed and stamina, dirt and turf. That, to me, is the foremost commodity we should be seeking in new blood.

He has reliably been priced to have every chance at Spendthrift. That clearly means you are unlikely to be offering the only Known Agenda, at any given sale, but if our priority is value, this is the guy in this intake best equipped to multiply his yield. While you might not always agree with the principles that drive the market, we know how it functions and a breeder can only put bread on the table by anticipating demand. Call it… knowing the agenda! He graduates from an exemplary program and, while there are more accomplished rookies available, they will have to work a lot harder to move up their fees from where they are starting.

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Taking Stock: New Kentucky Stallions at $10,000

Back in March of 2009, in the Werk Thoroughbred Consultants blog, the late Jack Werk recounted a wager we'd made years earlier. This is what he wrote:

“The year that Elusive Quality went to stud, pedigree expert Sid Fernando and I had a small side bet: Who was the best sleeper or long shot from that crop? Sid picked Distorted Humor, standing for $12,500, a pretty astute choice at the time. I, of course, picked Elusive Quality, who also went to stud very cheap–$10,000.

“As it turns out, we both picked wisely! The top two sires by progeny earnings through the first two months of 2009 are Distorted Humor and Elusive Quality, and both have sired a Kentucky Derby winner. For a while it looked like Sid's pick was going to blow my choice away–Distorted Humor is one of the best stallions in the country and stands for $150,000–but Elusive Quality has made a strong 'stretch run' to narrow the gap, much like his son Raven's Pass's amazing move in the Breeders' Cup Classic last fall.”

Distorted Humor and Elusive Quality aren't the only stallions to enter stud for fees of between $10,000 and $15,000 that later ballooned into six-figures. More recent examples include three of the best stallions now at stud: Into Mischief, who began for $12,500 in 2009 at Spendthrift; Tapit, who started for $15,000 at Gainesway in 2005; and War Front, whose initial fee at Claiborne was $12,500 in 2007.

It's never easy predicting sire success, but what these examples illustrate is that some top-tier stallions are not necessarily the best-raced champions, and it could well pay to scrutinize those horses that enter stud for between $10,000 and $15,000.

So far, in 2022 there will be at least eight new stallions in Kentucky in that price range (they are all entering stud for $10,000), and perhaps one or two of them will turn into a top-class stallion like those mentioned above. Below are some brief notes on each, listed alphabetically.

Code of Honor (Noble Mission {GB}–Reunited, by Dixie Union) at Lane's End: Bred and raced by Lane's End's W.S. Farish, Code of Honor was sired by an exported ex-Lane's End son of Galileo (Ire) who is a full brother to Frankel (GB). Code of Honor is an anomaly as a Grade l winner on dirt for a sire line known for high performance on turf. The great Galileo, for instance, has yet to sire a top-level winner on dirt, and neither has Frankel, his heir apparent. Perhaps Code of Honor will be the conduit for dirt success for the Galileo branch of Sadler's Wells, just as El Prado (Ire) was for Sadler's Wells himself? A $70,000 RNA at Keeneland September, Code of Honor is trained by Shug McGaughey and has won seven of 19 starts, earning almost $3 million, and he may yet make another start before he starts stud duty. He won his debut at two and was forward enough to finish second next out to Complexity in the Gl Champagne S. At three, he was second in the Gl Kentucky Derby and won both the Gl Travers and Gl Jockey Club Gold Cup at 10 furlongs–his metier. His dam was a Grade lll winner by the deceased Lane's End sire Dixie Union, and she produced the Grade ll-placed Big League (Speightstown) in addition to Code of Honor. The extended family includes Grade or Group 1 winners Juno, Fiesta Lady, Thorn Song, and Ali Bey, as well as the current Grade lll winner Dr. Post (Quality Road).

The skinny: A Grade l winner with lots of classic-distance form for the fee, plus the Galileo-sire line.

Independence Hall (Constitution–Kalahari Cat, by Cape Town) at WinStar: Bred by Woodford Thoroughbreds, Independence Hall was a $100,000 Keeneland September yearling. Racing for a partnership including Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners, Twin Creeks, and WinStar among others, Independence Hall most recently won the Gll Hagyard Fayette S. at Keeneland Oct. 30 for trainer Michael McCarthy, and altogether he's a winner of five of 13 starts and has earnings of $874,000. He'd won both his starts at two, including the Glll Nashua, and was once considered a highly promising Classics prospect for trainer Michael Trombetta but never lived up to that initial hype, and after a fifth-place finish in the Gl Florida Derby, the colt was transferred to McCarthy on the west coast with the year-end Gl Malibu S. as a target–a race in which he also finished fifth. At four this year, the colt did run third to Knicks Go in the Gl Pegasus World Cup Invitational, but he was subsequently unplaced in both the Gl Santa Anita H. and the Gl TVG Pacific Classic before his most recent win. He's from a dam who has two other black-type winners to her credit, including a Grade lll winner. His extended family has had plenty of top-level success, including White Moonstone, Desert Stormer, Better Lucky, Speedy Dollar, Tidal Light, Camp David, Media Sensation, Dorabella, and Insouciant.

The skinny: A Grade ll winner by a top son of Tapit, which makes him ideal for American dirt racing. Has plenty of pedigree, too.

Known Agenda (Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) at Spendthrift: Bred and raced by St. Elias Stable and trained by Todd Pletcher–who has trained a boatload of successful stallions–Known Agenda was put through the ring at Fasig-Tipton Saratoga but was a $135,000 RNA. He won three of eight starts, earning $640,000, most of that from winning the Gl Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill 'n' Dale Farms at Xalapa–the farm where Curlin, one of the best stallions in the country, stands. Known Agenda's dam is a Grade l winner, and the extended family includes a number of Group 1 or Grade l winners, including Commander Collins, Lit de Justice, North America, Gourmet Girl, Trebrook, Paradisus, Soviet Star, The Very One, Right Con, Fly Till Dawn and Melyno.

The skinny: He's by a top-Classic sire who has already had two sons sire Grade l winners in their first crops, his dam is a Grade l winner, his trainer has a knack for making stallions, and he won the Grade l race that's become the best indicator for future sire success.

Lexitonian (Speightstown–Riviera Romper, by Tapit) at Lane's End: Bred and raced by Calumet and trained by Jack Sisterson, Lexitonian was a late developer like many top-level sons and daughters of his sire. A winner of five of 21 starts and almost $720,000, Lexitonian won the Gl Alfred G. Vanderbilt this year at five, though he gave notice last year that he was a legit high-level sprinter when he wanted to run, with narrow seconds in the Gl Bing Crosby (by a nose) and Gl Churchill Downs S. (by a head). His winning dam was produced from Grade l winner Swap Fliparoo. The pedigree isn't particularly strong, though fourth dam Flip's Pleasure was a Grade l winner, and the extended family also includes top-level winner Big Macher.

The skinny: A Grade l winner by Speightstown, whose son Munnings, a Grade ll winner of four of 14 starts, began for $12,500 and will stand for $85,000 in 2022.

Modernist (Uncle Mo–Symbolic Gesture, by Bernardini) at Darby Dan: Bred and raced by Pam and Marty Wygod and trained by Bill Mott, Modernist was on the Triple Crown trail after winning the Gll Risen Star S., but after a third-place finish in his next start, in the Gll Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, the colt was held out of the Kentucky Derby and Gl Preakness for the Gl Belmont S., a race in which he finished seventh of 10. He won the Glll Excelsior S. earlier this year at four and enters stud with a record of three wins from 11 starts and earnings of almost $600,000. What he lacks in top-class race form, he makes up in pedigree. His sire is one of the best young stallions in the country, and his dam is by the best young broodmare sire in N. America. The immediate family includes Grade l winner and champion Sweet Catomine as well as Grade l winner Life Is Sweet–both by Storm Cat–and the extended family includes such as Grade l winners Pirate's Revenge, Cherokee Run, and champion Midnight Bisou.

The skinny: A Grade ll winner, he's by a stallion whose first sons at stud–Nyquist, Laoban, and Outwork–are making an impact, and he's got a family and broodmare sire that add to his resume appeal. He will also appeal to Storm Cat-line mares, with whom both his sire and family have succeeded.

Raging Bull (Fr) (Dark Angel {Ire}–Rosa Bonheur, by Mr. Greeley) at Gainesway: Bred by the Wildenstein family's Dayton Investments and raced by Peter Brant with trainer Chad Brown, Raging Bull sold for the equivalent of $101,000 as a yearling at Goffs Orby. He's been part of a trend of European-sourced yearling purchases to make good for Brown in N. America, winning Grade l turf races at three, five, and six (this year), and all told, he has a record of seven wins from 22 starts and earnings of $1.7 million. Brant is introducing vibrant European sire lines to N. America with him and Demarchelier (GB) at Claiborne, but Demarchelier is by Dubawi (Ire), whose Seeking the Gold sire line is more familiar to American breeders. Raging Bull is from the European-based Northern Dancer line that's known for its specialist sprinter attributes through the sequence Royal Applause (GB)/Acclamation (GB)/Dark Angel, and this could be an important reintroduction of a branch of Northern Dancer to N. America that's been specific to Europe for decades. Raging Bull stayed farther here than typical members of this line do in Europe, but at the end of the day, the line is all about speed. The immediate pedigree isn't particularly strong, but the extended family includes such as top-level winners Shahtoush, Declan's Moon, Montmartre, Kalaglow, Thundering Star, Flying Duel, Dancing Duel, Ramonti, Zabrasive, and Kings Island.

Watch Raging Bull at Gainesway:

The skinny: Grade l winner and a member of an excellent sire line based on a foundation of speed that will introduce some diversity to the breed.

Rock Your World (Candy Ride {Arg}–Charm the Maker, by Empire Maker) at Spendthrift: Bred by Ron and Deborah McAnally and raced by Hronis Racing and Talla Racing with trainer John Sadler, Rock Your World was by far the most expensive yearling of this group, selling for $650,000 at Keeneland September. A winner of three of seven starts and $600,000, he thrust himself into the Triple Crown picture earlier this spring with an impressive front-running score in the Gl Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, defeating eventual Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit by four-plus lengths. I discussed his pedigree in depth in April in this space, and you can read it here.

The skinny: A spring 3-year-old Grade l winner, he's by Candy Ride, whose son Gun Runner is carving up all freshman sires this year. That alone adds heft to his profile, but he's got speed, racing class, and pedigree, too.

Tacitus (Tapit–Close Hatches, by First Defence) at Taylor Made: A Juddmonte homebred trained by Bill Mott, Tacitus has the best pedigree of this group by a mile. His sire is one of the best in the country and has a top-class son in Constitution, and his dam is champion and Grade l winner Close Hatches, who descends from blue hen Best in Show–one of the most influential mares in the Stud Book and the ancestress of too many high-class winners to name here. A winner of four of 17 starts and $3.7 million, Tacitus began his career as if he'd become one of the most expensive young horses to enter stud, winning three of his first four starts, including the Gll Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby and the Gll Wood Memorial S. Presented by NYRA Bets. In fact, he was the favorite in the 2019 Kentucky Derby, but he ran third, and soon thereafter the pattern emerged that he was never quite good or lucky enough to get that Grade l race on his resume, though he tried mightily, hitting the board in such Grade l races as the Belmont S., Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup (twice), and Woodward.

The skinny: Grade ll winner by the sire of Constitution with so much family that his good-enough race record takes a back seat.

Watch Tacitus at Taylor Made:

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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