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Blinkers On Are ‘One And Done’ For Tonalist’s Shape After CCA Oaks

Saffie Joseph Jr.-trained Tonalist's Shape finished a well-beaten fourth as the 6-5 favorite in Saturday's Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) at Saratoga in Saratoga Springs, N.Y. The multiple graded-stakes winner, who wore blinkers for the first time in a race Saturday, was rank early and lacked the late punch that carried her to victory in the Forward Gal (G3) and Davona Dale (G2) during the Championship Meet and, most recently, the Hollywood Wildcat at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla.

“The blinkers, I knew, could have that effect. I thought the blinkers for her was going to be hit or miss. It was either going to make a big difference or it was going to be a big mistake. It turned out to be a big mistake,” Joseph said. “We thought we were making the right decision. We had to give it a try. I'll take the blame for that. I can't blame her. She got a little rank going into the first turn. I think it was a complete throw-out race. I'll take the blame for that.”

The Sept. 4 Kentucky Oaks is still penciled in for a 'blinkers-off” Tonalist's Shape.

“I'm not going to let that race distract us. If all is well, we're going to stay on plan. She's earned a spot in the Oaks. If she stays the course, we'll probably give her a chance there. We'll see how she does,” Joseph said. “We'll talk it over with the owners, but I don't see any reason not to continue onwards.”

Math Wizard, who gave Joseph his first Grade 1 success while winning last year's Pennsylvania Derby at Parx, improved off a pair of disappointing 2020 efforts with a second-place finish behind Global Campaign in Saturday's Monmouth Cup (G3).

“He ran very good. He's just a hard-knocking horse,” Joseph said. “On his day, when he's doing good, he gives his all. I couldn't be more proud of him.”

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Kentucky Derby Consignor Standings Presented By Keeneland: Swiss Skydiver Defied Conventional Auction Wisdom To Succeed

When Swiss Skydiver won the Grade 3 Fantasy Stakes earlier this year, Elliott Walden of breeder WinStar Farm sent out a tweet noting that the filly had lucencies in her condyles as a yearling that put a defined ceiling on her commercial value when she was sold as a yearling.

That story was all too familiar in the history of the Select Sales consignment, which famously sold a long list of high-level runners that started with minor dings on their vet reports during the company's operation from 2009 to 2020.

After Swiss Skydiver jumped into the deep end to test colts in the G2 Blue Grass Stakes, and nearly pulled it off with a gritty second to Art Collector, former Select Sales partner Carrie Brogden said it was just another example of physical presence and patience winning out.

“When we originally looked at our group, when WinStar decides which horses we're going to get the chance to sell, she was originally slated for our [Fasig-Tipton] July consignment,” Brogden said. “The first time I saw her, she was this big-bodied, strong filly, and that's when David [Hanley, WinStar general manager] said, 'We're actually not putting her in your July consignment. We're gonna have to push her back to September because of the x-rays.”

The first-crop Daredevil filly's trouble passing the vet took her from a sale for early-bloomers to Book 4 of the 2018 Keeneland September Yearling Sale, where she was offered as Hip 2997.

Swiss Skydiver drew the attention of trainer Kenny McPeek, who has staked much of his career on finding diamonds in the rough at auction by knowing what items on a vet report can be forgiven and outgrown.

“Kenny is one of the best of the best in my opinion for knowing what things he can deal with x-ray wise, and what he can't,” Brogden said. “I think that's why he gets so many bargains, because he has a very good hold – much more so than most of the trainers that I deal with – on what works and what doesn't work.

“Anytime you have stuff written on the stifles or knees, you have a lot of people who don't have a lot of experience with that,” she continued. “If people see stuff in the stifles or knees, they always get scared. When [Swiss Skydiver] was in the back ring, she stuck out as a physical filly, but even if she had 15 repository checks, it's not like a lot of them would be passing her.”

McPeek landed the winning bid on the filly for $35,000, and she'd go on to run for owner Peter Callahan.

The price obviously seems like a bargain now for a multiple Grade 2 winner and earner of $677,980, much less one that can hang with her male counterparts. The filly's transaction was just above the session's median sale price of $32,000, but both sides of the exchange knew the trainer likely got a deal.

Education efforts are starting to sink in that a clean yearling vet report isn't the only path to finding a successful runner at auction. The stories of horses that became champions with dings on their reports has become too long to deny, and Brogden adamantly drove that point home when it comes to assessing the next class of hopefuls.

“If a horse goes from a clean-vetting horse to a 'non-vetter,' the discount for risk, if they're still a great physical, is built into the price,” she said. “The discount to cover that risk is built-in, so instead of paying $100,000 for a yearling and having the same training bills, the discount's there.

“If you only want Ferraris, those are going to be different buyers. But, if you have people that are willing to buy a Ferrari with maybe a dent in the bumper at a 70 percent discount, it drives the same,” Brogden continued. “It's what we see all the time.”

McPeek said Swiss Skydiver is likely to target the Kentucky Oaks despite her solid showing against the boys, but the Kentucky Derby qualifying points she earned for her Blue Grass effort has put Select Sales in fourth place on the Derby Consignor Standings list.

Joining Swiss Skydiver among Select's graduates with Derby points are Belmont Stakes runner-up Dr Post (second choice on the morning line in Saturday's G1 Haskell), multiple Grade 1-placed Gouverneur Morris, and Remington Springboard Mile Stakes winner Shoplifted.

Success of that caliber is something to be celebrated, but it won't serve to build the consignment's reputation. The partners of Select Sales announced in February that the consignment would be disbanded, ending an 11-year run that saw the operation handle the likes of champion Tepin, Pegasus World Cup winner Mucho Gusto, and Grade/Group 1 winners Dream Tree, Mind Your Biscuits, Gift Box, Promises Fulfilled, and Twilight Eclipse.

Brogden will remain in the consignment arena at the upcoming yearling sales, selling under the Machmer Hall Sales banner. She'll be joined by fellow Select partners Amy Bunt and Tom and Michelle Mullikin. Among Select's other partners, Andrew Cary founded Cary Bloodstock to serve clients as an agent and advisor, while Jay Goodwin joined Eaton Sales as an account manager.

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Turf-Bred Altaf Going After Kentucky Oaks Points In CCA Oaks

When reading the pedigree of Shadwell Farm's Grade 1, $350,000 Coaching Club American Oaks aspirant Altaf, one would be led to believe that she would likely find a home on grass. But such has not been the case thus far.

Following a seventh-place effort on debut over the lawn at Gulfstream Park, the bay daughter of Medaglia d'Oro raced at Churchill Downs over the main track, which appeared to make a huge difference as she powered home a 5 ¼ length-victor under jockey Joel Rosario.

Trained by Chad Brown, Altaf is out of the Smart Strike broodmare Fawaarek, who was a winner on grass. Her grand dam was three-time turf Grade 1-winner and 2002 Champion Turf Mare Golden Apples, who produced graded stakes winner on turf Habaya, as well as turf graded stakes-placed Hatheer.

“Golden Apples was a very good turf mare. I guess the Medaglia d'Oro is coming out in her a bit,” said Shadwell Farms' general manager Rick Nichols. “She had worked well on the grass. Chad thought that's where she should start out at. But she didn't seem to like it all that much. The jockey [Joel Rosario] liked her the day he rode her, but he too didn't think she cared for it that much. We brought her back on the dirt and it was impressive.”

How impressive? Enough to really catch Nichols' attention.

“Once you've seen as many horses as I have over the years, it's hard for me to be too impressed, and I was impressed,” Nichols said.

The Coaching Club American Oaks, offering 100-40-20-10 points to the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, will be quite the step up in class from Altaf's maiden victory. But Nichols said that his filly is up for the task. Brown won last year's CCA Oaks with Guarana, who in her prior start won the Grade 1 Acorn off of an impressive maiden victory.

“It's a big step, but I like the fact that we have a nice small field and Chad is very, very pleased with her,” said Nichols. “He loves her. He's always thought a lot of her. After that race, we all like her a little bit more.”

A big run on Saturday could result in Altaf targeting the lilies on the First Friday in September for the Kentucky Oaks.

“If she wins on Saturday and comes out of it well, we'll speak to Sheikh Hamdan and I'm sure he would love to give her a try in the Oaks,” Nichols said.

Altaf will be ridden by Joel Rosario from post 3.

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The TDN Oaks Top 10 For July 16

It was a busy Saturday at Keeneland for the nation’s top 3-year-old fillies, as a field of five contested the GI Ashland S. and Swiss Skydiver (Daredveil) ventured outside her division as her connections boldly took on males in the GII Toyota Blue Grass S. At the end of the day, the deck was shuffled some, but not much. Speech (Mr. Speaker), already a highly regarded Oaks contender, won the Ashland and Swiss Skydiver was terrific in a second-place finish against the boys.

With the Oaks less than eight weeks away, the number of meaningful preps for the race is starting to dwindle. Most of the action will be in Saratoga, where the meet includes the GI Coaching Club American Oaks, the GI Test S. and the GI Alabama S., races that should have an impact on the Oaks picture.

1) SWISS SKYDIVER (Daredevil–Expo Gold, by Johannesburg)
O-Peter J Callahan. B-WinStar Farm (KY). T-Kenneth G McPeek. Sales History: $35,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 8-4-2-1, $677,980.
Last Start: 2nd GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 310.

We keep flip-flopping between Swiss Skydiver and Gamine for the top spot and return Swiss Skydiver to No. 1 after her second-place finish against males in the Blue Grass. Considering that she ran that well against the boys and had reeled off three straight graded stakes wins against fillies prior to that, she’s done more than enough to deserve top billing in the Oaks. She’s as solid as they come and there are no knocks against her. It’s going to take a freakishly talented filly to beat her, and Gamine may well be that good. But she’s going to have to prove it on the racetrack.

Still amazing to think that trainer Kenny McPeek found her at the sales for just $35,000. Would be fun to see her in the GI Kentucky Derby and she has enough points to get in, but McPeek and owner Peter Callahan have said she is likely to go next in Oaks.

2) GAMINE (Into Mischief—Peggy Jane, by Kafwain)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Michael L. Petersen. B-Grace Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $220,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $1,800,000 2yo ’19 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $234,600.
Last Start: 1st GI Longines Acorn S., BEL, June 20
Next Start: GI Longines Test S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Considering that she turned in one of the best races by a 3-year-old filly in decades when destroying the opposition in the GI Acorn S, Gamine very well could turn out to be a superstar. As good as Swiss Skydiver is, Gamine may just be better. No one knows what the ceiling is. But she definitely has more to prove, most importantly her ability to win around two turns or at a mile and an eighth. She did win her only two-turn race, beating Speech in an allowance race at Oaklawn, but wasn’t nearly as explosive or impressive that day as she was in the one-mile, one-turn Acorn. Trainer Bob Baffert has said the GI Longines Test S. at seven furlongs may be next for Gamine, which make for an unusual route to the Kentucky Oaks. Is it an indication that he believes her best distance is shorter than nine furlongs?

3) SPEECH (Mr Speaker—Scribbling Sarah, by Freud)
O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Michael W. McCarthy. Sales history: $65,000 ylg ’18 OBSWIN; $95,000 RNA ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $190,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-2-4-1, $353,840.
Last Start: 1st GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, Sept. 4
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 160.

If ever a horse were due for a big win.

Speech came into the Ashland having finished second in four straight races. She kept running into tough customers, whether it was Swiss Skydiver in the GII Santa Anita Oaks or Gamine in the Oaklawn allowance. The betting public thought it would happen again. Speech was the 4-1 second choice in the Ashland, while Venetian Harbor was sent off at 3-5. Venetian Harbor got the trip, getting a comfortable early lead. But Speech had no problem going by her. The losses to Swiss Skydiver and Gamine suggest that she will have a tough time beating the top two in the Oaks. She might just be a good filly who came around in the wrong year.

4) VENETIAN HARBOR (Munnings—Sounds of the City, by Street Cry {Ire})
O-Ciaglia Racing LLC, Highland Yard LLC, River Oak Farm & Dominic Savides. B-Colts Neck Stables LLC (KY). T-Richard Baltas. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $205,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-3-0, $323,400.
Last Start: 2nd GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 90.

This is a very talented filly, but probably not a Kentucky Oaks winner. The question with her all along has been how far does she want to go? After the Ashland, it’s pretty obvious that nine furlongs is a stretch for her. She made the lead easily and the pace was not fast, but she had no answer when Speech came to challenge her. The story was the same when she cleared the field in the Fantasy only to be run down by Swiss Skydiver. Her connections must now decide if they even want to try the Oaks or look for shorter races like the Test.

5) SHEDARESTHEDEVIL (Daredevil–Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats)
O-Flurry Racing Stables LLC, Qatar Racing Limited & Big Aut Farms. B-WinStar Farm, LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Sales History: $100,000 wlg ’17 KEENOV; $20,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo ’19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 9-4-2-2, $501,768.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Oaks, IND, July 8
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 90.

Rather than tackle the best of the division, trainer Brad Cox has been picking easier spots for Shedaresthedevil, a strategy that has been working. After winning an allowance at Churchill Downs by six lengths, she came back in the GIII Indiana Oaks, where she romped by five lengths. It’s gotten her back on track after she was a distant third in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn. She’ll need to step it up to be able to win the Oaks, but has at least proven she knows how to win. Her resume also includes a victory in the GIII Honeybee S.

6) TONALIST’S SHAPE (Tonalist—Hitechnoweenie, by Harlan’s Holiday)
O-Slam Dunk Racing, Doug Branham & Legacy Ranch, Inc. B-Sabana Farm (KY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $45,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $60,000 RNA 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-6-0-0, $357,425.
Last Start: 1st Hollywood Wildcat S., GP, May 15
Next Start: GI CCA Oaks S., SAR, July 18
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 60.

She was scratched out of the Ashland to go in the Coaching Club American Oaks. That’s a smart move by trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., who, no doubt, figured out that the CCA Oaks was going to come up weak this year, a lot weaker than the Ashland. At six-for-seven lifetime, she has a remarkably good record. The lone defeat came in the Gulfstream Park Oaks, where she was a distant seventh to Swiss Skydiver as the 19-10 favorite. She came back to win the Hollywood Wildcat S. at Gulfstream, but didn’t face much that day. She will need to win the CCA Oaks convincingly to be considered a serious contender for the Kentucky Oaks.

7) SPICE IS NICE (Curlin—Dame Dorothy, by Bernardini)
‘TDN Rising Star’ O-Lawana L. & Robert E. Low. B-B. Flay Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $1,050,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 4-2-1-0, $106,080.
Last Start: 1st Alw/Opt. Clm., BEL, July 3
Next Start: GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 20.

A $1.05-million yearling purchase trained by Todd Pletcher, she fell out of the top 10 after a poor showing in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She’s back after winning a July 3 allowance at Belmont, her first start in more than three months. She’ll go next in the mile-and-a-quarter Alabama. That means she’d have to come back in three weeks for the Oaks and cut back in distance. That’s not ideal, but neither is it impossible. She’s shown a lot of talent and the seven-figure price tag at the sales stands out. Should be getting better.

8) ENVOUTANTE (Uncle Mo—Enchante, by Bluegrass Cat)
O-Walking L Thoroughbreds LLC & Three Chimneys Farm; B-Jumping Jack Racing LLC (KY); T-Ken McPeek. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISP, 6-2-1-2, $125,748.
Last Start: 3rd GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11.
Next Start: GI Alabama S., SAR, Aug. 15. Equineline PPs.
KY Oaks Points: 20

Among the reasons Kenny McPeek gave for running Swiss Skydiver in the Blue Grass was that he felt he could still win the Ashland with Envoutante. Facing proven stakes horses, it was a tall order for a filly coming of an allowance win, but she didn’t embarrass herself. She finished third, beaten 6 3/4 lengths. She’s a late-developing filly who didn’t break her maiden until April, so she has every right to improve. A good showing in the Alabama could be her ticket into the Oaks.

9) BONNY SOUTH (Munnings—Touch the Star, by Tapit)
O/B-Juddmonte Farms (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $343,350.
Last Start: 4th GI Ashland S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: To Be Determined
Equineline PPs. KY Oaks Points: 110.

Unraced since winning the GII Fair Grounds Oaks on March 21, Bonny South didn’t show much in her return in the Ashland. She never seriously threatened and finished fourth in the five-horse field. With Beyer numbers in the mid-eighties, she appeared to be slower than her main rivals at Keeneland. Has more than enough points to get into the Oaks, but she would really have to improve to win a race at that level.

10) WATER WHITE (Conveyance–Uzume, by Unbridled’s Song)
O-E V Racing Stable; B-Richard Forbush (KY); T-Rudy Rodriguez. Sales history: $50,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW, 7-2-2-1, $270,275.
Last Start: 3rd GI Acorn S., BEL, June 20
Next Start: GI Coaching Club American Oaks, SAR, July 18. Equineline PPs. Kentucky Oaks Points: 64

After you get past the top three or four, the list gets pretty thin. That’s why a horse like Water White makes it into the Top 10. Yes, she was beaten 19 1/4 lengths in the Acorn, but Gamine thrashed everybody that day. She picked up most of her Oaks points when winning the Busher Invitational in her previous start. Probably not a serious contender for the Oaks.

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