kentucky oaks | Horse Racing Free Tips

Another New Wrinkle For Bubble Rock in Fantasy

Having already displayed considerable versatility in her young career, Shortleaf Stable homebred Bubble Rock (More Than Ready) faces yet another test as one of the expected market leaders in Saturday's GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn, a race with an open feel owing to the absence of Secret Oath (Arrogate) and the early scratching of morning-line favorite Eda (Munnings).

After posting a pair of visually impressive victories over turf sprint trips–including the GIII Matron S. at Belmont–Bubble Rock was asked to stretch out to two turns for the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf instead of the GII Juvenile Turf Sprint, and though she beat only two rivals home in 12th, closed off decently to finish just 4 1/2 lengths adrift of Pizza Bianca (Fastnet Rock {Aus}). Second to a race-fit and in-form Marissa's Lady (Violence) in the Feb. 12 Valdale S. sprinting over the Turfway synthetic, she most recently turned the tables on that one with a 2 1/2-length success in the one-mile Cincinnati Trophy S. Mar. 5. Marissa's Lady returned to annex the Serena's Song S. last Saturday.

The new frontier in the Fantasy is the dirt, but she is bred nicely for it, as she is out of a daughter of GII Demoiselle S. victress Dixie City (Dixie Union), the dam of Korean star and GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile third Blue Chipper (Tiznow). Former 'TDN Rising Star' and current Lane's End stallion Unified (Candy Ride {Arg}) is further down the page.

Yuugiri (Shackleford) has yet to finish outside the top three in four trips to the post. A 7 1/4-length maiden winner on Churchill debut Sept. 17, the homebred filly was runner-up in the Rags To Riches S. Oct. 31 and to Dream Lith (Medaglia d'Oro) in the GII Golden Rod S. Nov. 27. She has one run under her belt this term, a useful third to Secret Oath in the Feb. 26 GIII Honeybee S.

Dream Lith also makes her second start of the season here and will look to improve off a mostly even sixth in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. at the Fair Grounds Feb. 19. She has turned in three very strong works over the local main track since for trainer Robertino Diodoro.

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TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Apr. 1

The big story last week was the return of Eclipse Award winner Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) in the GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, which she won by a nose over Hidden Connection (Connect) to stay unbeaten in five career starts. There will be plenty going on Saturday, with Secret Oath (Arrogate) stepping outside of her division to take on males in the GI Arkansas Derby and Kathleen O. (Upstart) looking to stay hot in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. A GI Kentucky Oaks contender could also come out of the $250,000 Bourbonette Oaks at Turfway.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-1, $285,167. Last Start: 1st GIII Honeybee S. Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 60.

This could be the last week that Secret Oath is included in our Oaks rankings as there's a strong chance that after Saturday she will be off the Oaks trail and instead on her way to the GI Kentucky Derby. How she performs in the Arkansas Derby will likely decide just that. Should she beat the boys Saturday, it's hard to imagine that trainer Wayne Lukas and owners Rob and Stacy Mitchell won't take what would be the next logical step and go in the Derby.

The Secret Oath team has found the perfect spot to test their star filly against males. She's the 5-2 morning line favorite in a $1.25-million race and will likely go off lower than that versus what is not a particularly strong group of male rivals. She is the only horse in the race to run a Beyer number in the 90s, something she has done twice. They have nothing to lose by trying this. Should she win, she would likely be on track for the Derby. If she falls short, they can go back to Plan A and run in the Oaks. A fascinating story. Will be fun to see how this plays out Saturday.

2) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 130.

What should we make of her narrow win Saturday in the Fair Grounds Oaks? It's not an easy question to answer. On the one hand, it was her first start after a lengthy layoff and trainer Steve Asmussen had been saying all along that he hadn't really cranked his filly up just yet. She also showed some grit and determination to prevail over a quality rival in Hidden Connection. All signs point to her running better in the Oaks. Then again…weren't you expecting more?

She is a champion and a GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winner and some thought she might be better than the best of the boys. It wasn't unreasonable to expect that she would thrash her rivals, win by six or seven while crossing the wire with her ears pricked. It's also worth noting that she got an 88 Beyer, making this the slowest race of her career. Is the 5-2 favorite in the Oaks Future Wager. Not all great 2-year-olds turn into great 3-year-olds. The jury is out.

3) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $56,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Las Virgenes S. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Unraced since romping by 13 lengths in the GIII Las Virgenes S. on Feb. 6 at Santa Anita, she has been transferred to the barn of former Bob Baffert assistant Tim Yakteen. Owner Michael Lund Petersen was forced to make the move because it looks like Baffert will not be eligible to start any horses in the Oaks due to his problems stemming from the betamethasone positive from last year's Derby.

Because Baffert-trained horses were not eligible to earn Kentucky Oaks points, Adare Manor doesn't have any yet. But that shouldn't be a problem. She will be the heavy favorite next week in the GII Santa Anita Oaks and a win or even a second-place finish there should get her to the Kentucky Oaks. A daughter of Uncle Mo, she took a little while to get good, but started to put things together when winning a Jan. 7 maiden at Santa Anita by 12 lengths. With two straight Beyer numbers of 94, she has the top figures so far among any of the fillies eyeing the Kentucky Oaks.

4) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $226,280. Last Start: 1st GII Davona Dale S. Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Apr. 2. KY Oaks Points: 50.

She's 3-for-3 and has been visually impressive in each of her starts. She passed a big test last out when beating graded company for the first time in the GII Davona Dale S., which she won by two lengths. She takes her time to get going in her races, but when she does she launches a kick that is something to see.

Hard to imagine she originally sold for just $8,000 at the 2019 Keeneland November sale before selling for $50,000 at the OBS October Yearling Sale and then for $250,000 at the 2021 OBS April Sale.

She'll stretch out from a one-turn mile to a two-turn mile-and-sixteenth Saturday in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, but that doesn't figure to be a problem. If anything, the two turns and the longer distance should result in an improved effort. On the Beyer scale, she's improving. Went from a 67 in debut to a 78 in the Cash Run S. to an 85 in the Davona Dale. She'll need to up her numbers to win the Kentucky Oaks, but no reason why an improving filly in the hands of Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey can't do just that.

5) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $265,000. Last Start: 1st Suncoast S. Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 20.

Trained by Todd Pletcher, Nest is the winner of last year's GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct, which has emerged as a key race. Nest came back to win the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs and runner-up Venti Valentine (Firing Line) won the Busher S. at Aqueduct. Magic Circle (Kantharos) also emerged from that race to win a stakes and Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro) recently romped in an allowance race at Gulfstream. Nest won the Demoiselle by just a neck, but obviously beat some good horses. Didn't prove much when beating inferior rivals as the 3-10 favorite in the last, but did what was required of her.

Goes next in the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland, which will be a much tougher test. This is a good one. Very much a contender to win the Kentucky Oaks.

6) HAPPY SOUL (Runhappy–Cowgirl Lucky, by Stephen Got Even) O-Gayla Rankin; B-Harris Training Center, LLC (KY); T-Wesley Ward. Sales History: $50,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MSW, 4-3-1-0, $238,500. Last Start: 1st Dixie Belle S. Next Start: Next Start: GI Central Bank Ashland S., KEE, Apr. 8. KY Oaks Points: 0.

Wesley Ward certainly knows what he is doing and he is confident that this very fast daughter of Runhappy can stretch her speed around two turns.

“We're going to take it one race at a time and see how she runs in the Ashland before deciding on the Kentucky Oaks,” Ward said. “She had an awesome work over the Keeneland main track (six furlongs in 1:12) the other day. [Exercise rider] Julio Garcia was beaming after the work. He was going crazy when he got off her.”

The Ashland will be a huge test. Even though Happy Soul has won her last three starts by a combined 26 1/4 lengths, she's never gone beyond six furlongs. Has a ton of ability. The distance is the only question, and it's a big one.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 57.

She dropped off the list after finishing fourth in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in her 3-year-old debut. After losing by just a nose to champion Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks, she is back. Showed a new dimension in the Fair Grounds Oaks, closing from fourth after taking the early lead in her prior start. But…was she that good or did Echo Zulu put in a sub-par performance?

Showed a lot of promise last year when winning the GIII Pocahontas S. by 9 1/4 lengths, but didn't back that up when a distant fourth in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Probably not quite as talented as the top three or four on this list, but is a solid filly, a graded stakes winner and is in the capable hands of trainer Bret Calhoun.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & GSP, 4-3-1-0, $366,250. Last Start: 1st Busher Invitational S. Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 54.

Will look to give up-and-coming trainer Jorge Abreu his first graded stakes win. A native of the Dominican Republic, Abreu has been training only since 2016 and had his best year ever when his stable earned over $2 million in 2021. Abreu has served as the assistant to John Terranova, Nick Zito and Chad Brown.

This New York-bred filly won a pair of state-bred races last year before losing by just a neck to Nest in the Demoiselle. She followed that up with a blowout seven-length win in the Busher S., which was a tougher spot than one would ordinarily expect from a non-graded race. In most any other year would be a top three or four contender for the Kentucky Oaks, but not among this loaded group.

9) SHAHAMA (Munnings–Private Feeling, by Belong to Me) 'TDN Rising Star' O-KHK Racing; B-SF Bloodstock LLC (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $425,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW-UAE, $223,670. Last Start: 1st G3 UAE Oaks. Next Start: GI Longines Kentucky Oaks, May 6, Churchill Downs. KY Oaks Points: 50.

Arrived in the Pletcher barn after winning the GIII UAE Oaks on Feb. 18 for trainer Fawzi Nass and owner KHK Racing. Is 4-for-4 in her career, with all her races coming in Dubai. Half-sister to champion Lookin At Lucky (Smart Strike) sold for $425,000 last year as a 2-year-old at OBS April. Really hard to get a read on her. Cost a lot and obviously has some talent, but there's no telling how the competition she faced in Dubai stacks up to what she'll meet in the Kentucky Oaks. Is going to have to be very good to beat the kind of field she is set to face at Churchill Downs.

10) CLASSY EDITION (Classic Empire–Newbie, by Bernardini) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Robert E & Lawana L Low; B-Chester & Mary R. Broman (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $550,000 2yo '21 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: MSW & GSP, 4-3-1-0, $223,450. Last Start: 2nd GII Davona Dale S. Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., Aqu, Apr. 9. KY Oaks Points: 20.

The third of three Pletcher-trained fillies to make the list. Bought for $550,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old sale, the filly showed something when second to the highly regarded Kathleen O. In the Davona Dale. Another New York-bred, she has never run beyond a mile or around two turns, so the Gazelle at nine furlongs, should be a good test for her. Appears to be on the improve, but needs to show more to win the Kentucky Oaks.

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Derby Fever Starting to Take Hold in Lukas Camp

Though Secret Oath (Arrogate) will meet males Saturday in the GI Arkansas Derby, Hall of Fame trainer Wayne Lukas has been saying all along that the main goal for her remains the GI Kentucky Oaks. That's starting to change.

“First of all, we have to assume she is going to run a top race in the Arkansas Derby,” Lukas said. “(Owner-breeder) Rob Mitchell and I were talking three weeks ago and he said he wanted to go in the Oaks. Since then, he's brought up the Derby two or three times. I think it's a 50-50 proposition. That Derby Fever runs deep. I'll do whatever they want.”

Lukas understands that there is nothing like running a horse in the Kentucky Derby, especially a top contender. Even a race as prestigious as the Kentucky Oaks doesn't compare.

“I've been there and done that,” he said. “I've had all the thrills. I've sang 'My Old Kentucky Home.' I've had the experience a number of times. I want to give the Mitchells that experience. I want them to do whatever they want to do. If they say we want to run in the Derby that's what we will do. Whatever way they lean, I will endorse it 100% and try to make it work.”

Lukas and Mitchell, who owns Secret Oath along with his wife Stacy, have laid the groundwork for a possible Derby start. Had they opted instead to run against 3-year-old fillies the same day in the GIII Fantasy S., they would not have been able to accrue any points for the Derby. After Secret Oath romped in the GIII Honeybee S., winning her third straight, the decision was made to test the water in the Arkansas Derby. On paper, it looks like a smart move. The males lining up for the race are not a particularly strong group and Secret Oath has been made the 5-2 morning-line favorite. Secret Oath is the only horse in the race to have run a Beyer figure in the nineties.

“There was a lot of discussion that went into this,” Lukas said. “The Fantasy, believe it or not, is a Grade III. Rob and Stacy Mitchell thought that if we were going to go for a Grade I, maybe this was the spot to try it. They think we are competitive with the colts, which we probably are. Secondly, it's $1.25 million for the Arkansas Derby versus $600,000 for the Fantasy. I let them make the decision. I told them their filly was in top shape right now and I had led them over there against the colts before and I would do it again with great confidence. But the Grade III versus the Grade I was the main thing that pushed us in that direction.”

More so than any other trainer in the sport, Lukas knows what buttons to push when it comes to running fillies against colts. He won the Kentucky Derby in 1988 with the filly Winning Colors, one of only three fillies to win the race, and he won the 1984 Arkansas Derby with the filly Althea. She came back to run 19th in the Derby. He's won Grade I stakes races against males with Lady's Secret and Serena's Song.

“We are so tradition bound in Thoroughbred racing,” he said. “Nobody changes anything. I came along in the seventies and we made some changes and we were criticized for it. Even for the white bridles. Tradition is real strong, even with the younger guys. But, with a filly, if you have the fastest horse, you're in the right situation, the horse is doing the best they can possibly be doing and you can analyze the field and say, 'look, we are as good as they are,' I have no problem leading them over there. The Kentucky Derby is a career-making race.”

Appearing on the TDN Writers' Room podcast, jockey Gary Stevens, who rode Winning Colors, said that Secret Oath might be better than the Hall of Fame filly. Lukas isn't ready to go there yet, but he has a ton of confidence in Secret Oath.

“She breaks their heart when she runs by horses,” he said. “She'll clock them for a little while, and then when Luis Contreras let's her go, she has an acceleration that is really special. Winning Colors has done a lot more. But she could be that type. I don't know if I'd rate her as high as Winning Colors just yet. But when we get a little further down the base paths, she could turn out to be that good.”

Throughout his career, Lukas has been the eternal optimist. But even he probably never thought he might get back to the Derby at age 86. He has not won the race since 1999 with Charismatic, and his last Derby starter was Bravazo (Awesome Again) in 2018.

“My wife tells me every day, boy, with the way that filly has been running, it has really picked your head up,” Lukas said. “I have a passion for the main event. I want to compete in them. At 86, I have a few things going for me. We have a really good filly and we have a pretty good colt too in Ethereal Road (Quality Road). I have an experience edge on these guys big time. There's no how-to book when it comes to winning the race. I have already having done it and that gives you an edge. I am enjoying it immensely.”

During a prolonged period where negative racing stories have dominated the headlines, the story of an 86-year-old icon winning the Kentucky Derby with a filly could help heal a lot of wounds. Can it happen? It looks like Wayne Lukas is willing to give it every chance.

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Echo Zulu Narrowly Stays Unbeaten in Fair Grounds Oaks

With the GI Kentucky Oaks fast approaching, the racing world has been anxiously awaiting the return of 2021's leading lady, undefeated champion juvenile filly Echo Zulu (Gun Runner). Hammered down to 1-9 favoritism in what appeared to be a group of overmatched rivals, Echo Zulu left her fans holding their breath in the lane when confronted by a determined Hidden Connection (Connect). However, the Eclipse winner summoned all her class to eke out the victory, keeping her perfect record in tact and stamping her ticket to the First Friday in May.

Away well from her rail draw, Echo Zulu took up her preferred position at the head of affairs, clocking opening splits of :23.79 and :47.68 with Turnerloose (Nywuist) on her heels and host of foes just behind her. Drifting off the rail a path turning for home, the bay was confronted for the first time in her young career when Hidden Connection drew alongside, posing a serious threat in mid-stretch. As the wire rapidly approached, it looked like the Eclipse winner may lose her perfect record, but she proved to be all guts and all class, fending off that foe for a narrow victory.

Echo Zulu was the undeniable choice for last year's champion 2-year-old filly honors after a flawless season that included three Grade Is. Earning the 'TDN Rising Star' tag off a dominant score in her Saratoga unveiling July 15, the $300,000 KEESEP acquisition took them gate-to-wire in that venue's GI Spinaway S. Sept. 5, winning by four lengths. In a race of her own when taking Belmont's GI Frizette S. Oct. 3 by 7 1/4 lengths, Echo Zulu was the easiest of winners at the World Championships at Del Mar, wiring the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies by 5 1/4 lengths with Hidden Connection back in fourth. She returned to the worktab in early February and has been breezing steadily towards this return.

Pedigree Notes:

Echo Zulu was the first Grade I winner and first champion for last year's leading freshman sire Gun Runner. His second Grade I winner came just a day after her Spinaway victory when stablemate Gunite took the GI Hopeful S. Her co-owner Winchell Thoroughbreds and trainer Steve Asmussen also campaigned her sire and Gunite. Avocet purchased the winner's GSW dam Letgomyecho for $135,000 at the 2011 KEENOV sale and since then she has produced five black-type horses. The first was GSP Unbridled Outlaw (Unbridled's Song) and he was immediately followed by GSW J Boys Echo (Mineshaft). Two years later she produced SP Dragic (Broken Vow), who was followed by Coolmore stallion and GISW Echo Town (Speightstown), and two years after that came her best yet in Echo Zulu. Her final foal, a filly named Doing Justice (American Pharoah), brought $1.4 million from Northshore Bloodstock at KEESEP.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
TWINSPIRES.COM FAIR GROUNDS OAKS-GII, $388,000, Fair Grounds, 3-26, 3yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:42.69, ft.
1–ECHO ZULU, 122, f, 3, by Gun Runner
                1st Dam: Letgomyecho (GSW, $136,200), by Menifee
                2nd Dam: Echo Echo Echo, by Eastern Echo
                3rd Dam: Kashie West, by Sir Ivor
'TDN Rising Star' ($300,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP). O-L and N Racing LLC and Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/Ramsby (KY); T-Steven M. Asmussen; J-Joel Rosario. $240,000. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. *1/2 to Unbridled Outlaw (Unbridled's Song), GSP, $253,478; 1/2 to J Boys Echo (Mineshaft), GSW, $377,543; 1/2 to Echo Town (Speightstown), GISW, $410,020. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Hidden Connection, 122, f, 3, Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again. ($49,000 RNA Wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 Ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN). O-Hidden Brook Farm and Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. $80,000.
3–Favor, 122, f, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Fame and Fortune, by Unbridled's Song. 1ST BLACK TYPE, 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($500,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL). O-Stonestreet Stables LLC; B-Diamond Creek Farm (KY); T-Todd A. Pletcher. $40,000.
Margins: NO, 2 1/4, 2 1/4. Odds: 0.10, 9.50, 12.40.
Also Ran: Turnerloose, Sequist, Bernabreezy.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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