They call it “pilot error.” It's just that you have all the correction of perspective, right there, that anyone could possibly require. If a jockey makes a mistake, the consequences obviously tend to be a good deal less drastic than for a guy flying a plane.
Besides, I have never liked the kind of blame culture that unites handicappers and horsemen in casting jockeys as the villains of their woulda-coulda-shoulda world. To be fair, perhaps that's rather more common in my native environment, racing on turf in Europe, where the tendency to restrain a horse for a late run can vividly magnify rider miscalculation. Carrying speed on dirt, however, calls for no less subtle judgement of pace and position–as was conspicuously apparent at Oaklawn last weekend.
But while these guys are only human, and no lives were lost, there's no denying how maddening it can be for those closest to a horse, to see so much patient toil unraveled in a matter of seconds by a jockey who can flit from mount to mount as insouciantly as a butterfly. These big races can represent the apex of a pyramid of development extending not months, but years, and sometimes the whole thing can crumble through the fleeting intervention of a guy who's supposed to be on your side.
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As such, let's hope that connections of Secret Oath (Arrogate) will be rewarded for persevering with Luis Contreras in the GI Kentucky Oaks. He owes them big time, after his panicked lunge for the red button when shuffled back by the colts in the GI Arkansas Derby. The whole industry had a stake in that adventure and not many of us would match the fidelity and compassion of D. Wayne Lukas and his patrons in apparently concluding that Contreras, hardly a regular at this level, will have all due motivation to make amends in the Oaks.
Secret Oath's response to the intemperate demands of her rider was such that she may yet remain the most theatrically talented of the whole sophomore crop. For now, admittedly, that feels a fairly limited distinction so far as the males are concerned. Many observers, indeed, suspect that Secret Oath may have a tougher task on the first Friday in May than might have been the case on the Saturday. But that only makes it doubly vexing that she should have completed her preparations with a really taxing race. Luckily we know that her promising young trainer likes to keep a horse at the plow, and it's not inconceivable that Secret Oath could renew contention with the colts in the GI Preakness S.
I have to admit I wasn't crazy about the fractions set by Contreras in the GIII Oaklawn Mile, either, but by the same token a top-class rider in Flavien Prat arguably shouldn't have exposed Cezanne (Curlin) to a pace that softened him up for Fulsome (Into Mischief) to pounce from last place. Cezanne has required so much patience of the people who gave $3.65 million for him at the Fasig-Tipton Gulfstream Sale, now three years ago, and this was another performance in defeat that actually made you think better of the horse. To my mind there's no question that Cezanne is capable of winning a Grade I race and it would be interesting to know whether his rider deflected any blame by suggesting that they had overstretched a sprinter. Personally, I'd still like to see this guy in the GI Met Mile.
Both these horses, for different reasons, exemplify how the hectic whirlwind of a single race can compress a far wider agenda: an awful lot of time and money, in the case of Cezanne; and a glimpse of happier headlines, for a troubled sport, with Secret Oath.
And it's going to be no different Saturday, when the final round of big Derby trials bring together an awful lot of horses with zero margin for error. As things stand, in fact, of the declared runners only Morello (Classic Empire) and Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) have already secured a gate at Churchill. No coincidence, perhaps, that both are such natural dashers. None of the others, mostly slower burns, can afford the kind of misadventure that last week cost Secret Oath her Derby spot, albeit Messier (Empire Maker) resembles the filly in having unusual reasons for being confined to this single shot at the necessary starting points. But a lot of trainers, as we noted last week, have wittingly painted themselves into this corner by trying to reconcile their preference for a light schedule with the imperative of booking a gate.
Smile Happy (Runhappy) and Zandon (Upstart) probably can't afford another learning experience of the kind they shared in the GII Risen Star S., where both surfaced for the only time in four months and a third time overall. Both line up for the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. needing a statement performance to vindicate their precarious preparation. Smile Happy is in tolerable shape, with 30 points already banked, but Zandon sits on 14 while Emmanuel (More Than Ready), another who needs to have learned fast from a messy third start, has just five.
I'll certainly be rooting for Zandon, bred and raised by a model farm and representing a young stallion punching way above fee. Upstart already has one of the Oaks favorites in Kathleen O. and she could yet be joined by Micro Share (a $450,000 2-year-old) if getting her starting points out of the GII Santa Anita Oaks. Meanwhile Reinvestment Risk, from his sire's debut crop, looks right back in business for the GI Carter H.
This quite amazing breakout by a $10,000 stallion is just one among countless themes latent in one of the most captivating days in the whole calendar, set up perfectly by the joyous rite of spring that is opening day at Keeneland.
But wouldn't it be just typical of this business if all those Blue Grass highwire acts were suddenly toppled by Contreras, riding Ethereal Road (Quality Road) for Lukas? This colt at least compiled plenty of experience in taking four starts to break his maiden and, guess what, maybe didn't benefit from optimal tactics in the GII Rebel S., engaging on the wide outside and only tiring late after the effort of taking charge took its toll. Lukas reckons a bulb has come on since, and don't forget that it was the next horse home in the Rebel who picked up the pieces as Secret Oath surrendered second last week.
No getting away from it, that whole day fell rather flat. But if the sport was diverted from a road to redemption, with Secret Oath, perhaps her rider could already be taking us along on one of his own.
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