Epicenter, Echo Zulu on Track for Asmussen

Trainer Steve Asmussen sent likely GI Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks favorites Epicenter (Not This Time) and Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) out to work at Churchill Downs Sunday morning. Exercise rider Wilson Fabian was aboard for both works.

“Both horses are training extremely well. It's obviously exciting going into the Oaks and the Derby to have two horses of this caliber doing so well,” Asmussen said.

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter, coming off wins in the GII Risen Star S. and GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 (7/26) in company with 6-year-old Gun It (Tapit). He clipped through opening fractions of :12.60, :24.20 and :36 and galloped out strongly around the clubhouse turn and onto the backside with a six-furlong gallop-out in 1:13.60 and completed seven furlongs in 1:27. Epicenter finished his move with a one-mile clocking of 1:44.

“With Epicenter the spacing of his races since December has been very effective for him,” Asmussen said. “We're just trying to put the building blocks and space for him to handle the 1 1/4-miles in the Derby here. I couldn't feel any better with how he's doing here and how he loves Churchill Downs.”

L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds' undefeated champion filly Echo Zulu cruised five furlongs in 1:00 flat (4/26) outside of 3-year-old maiden colt King Ottoman (Curlin). She clipped off eighth-mile fractions of :13.20, :24.60 and :36.20 and she and King Ottoman galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.20 and seven furlongs in 1:28.20.

Echo Zulu ended her 2-year-old campaign with a win in the GI NetJets Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies last November and returned to gut out a narrow victory in the Mar. 26 GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks.

“Her coming off the bench after quite a layoff and a determined victory, I was anxious to get her here,” Asmussen said. “She actually had not trained at Churchill. She went from Keeneland straight to Saratoga, then won at Belmont and went to California. She has taken to the racetrack in both of her works very impressively.”

Working in company was normal practice for the two sophomores.

“It's been standard [to work both of these horses in company] and the company they worked with is who they've been with in New Orleans. We're trying to create more of the same success they had there.”

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Saturday’s Kentucky Derby/Oaks Update

With three weeks remaining until the GI Kentucky Derby, the trio of Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) (six furlongs, 1:18.60), Cyberknife (Gun Runner) (five furlongs, 1:00) and Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) (four furlongs, :48.40) worked at Churchill Downs Saturday.

Gold Square's GI Arkansas Derby winner Cyberknife worked at 9 a.m. outside of multiple stakes-placed stablemate Tommy Bee (Medaglia d'Oro). Cyberknife started two lengths behind Tommy Bee and completed fractions of :12.20, :23.80 and :47.20. Cyberknife finished even with Tommy Bee around the seven eighths pole and easily galloped out six furlongs in 1:15.40.

“I thought he looked great,” said trainer Brad Cox. “He's done well at Churchill in the past and really likes it here.”

About 90 minutes earlier, Magdalena Lessee's GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. winner Tiz the Bomb worked with jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. in the irons. He recorded an opening quarter-mile in :24.20 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:01.20.

Moments later, exercise rider Masa Matsuda breezed Teruya Yoshida's G2 UAE Derby winner Crown Pride six furlongs from the half-mile pole. The duo easily completed opening fractions of :14.60, :28.20, :54 and 1:06.20. Crown Pride steadily picked up his work around the turn and onto the backside before completing his move through seven furlongs in 1:32.40.

Winngate Stables' unbeaten GI Kentucky Oaks contender Kathleen O. (Upstart), meanwhile, worked four furlongs in :48.60 Saturday morning at Keeneland.

According to Keeneland clockers, the GII Gulfstream Oaks heroine galloped out five furlongs in 1:01 and six furlongs in 1:15.80 after clocking splits of :12.80, :25.60 and :37.40 under exercise rider David Jego.

“I was hoping to see just what I saw,” trainer Shug McGaughey said. “She does not need a whole lot. She is coming off a race two weeks ago. [The time and the gallop out] were just what I was looking for. So far we are right on track.”

Tsunebumi and Sekie Yoshihara's Yuugiri (Shackleford), winner of the GIII Fantasy S., covered four furlongs in :50 at Keeneland with trainer Rodolphe Brisset aboard.

“You could see it a lot of times when horses would come here from Florida with the change in the air, the change in the weather that they would just blossom, and you can see it,” Brisset said. “She is doing that, and I am very pleased with her.”

Don't Tell My Wife Stables and trainer Keith Desormeaux's Bourbonette Oaks upsetter Candy Raid (Candy Ride {Arg}) worked four furlongs in :50.40 at Keeneland.

Slow Down Andy (Nyquist), winner of the GIII Sunland Derby, will miss the Kentucky Derby after recently spiking a temperature, according to a report in Horse Racing Nation.

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The TDN Kentucky Oaks Rankings for Apr. 14

With the GI Ashland S., the GII Santa Anita Oaks and the GIII Gazelle S. topping last week's action, all the preps have been run and the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks is all but set. Who will be the favorite? Who is the filly to beat? In a year where the division is overrun with quality, those aren't easy questions to answer. It should be a heck of a race.

1) SECRET OATH (Arrogate–Absinthe Minded, by Quiet American) O-Briland Farm; B-Briland Farm, Robert & Stacy Mitchell (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-4-0-2, $590,167. Last Start: 3rd GI Arkansas Derby. Kentucky Oaks Points: 60. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 6.

The big news in the Secret Oath camp is that the connections have decided to replace jockey Luis Contreras with Luis Saez. Trainer Wayne Lukas had told the TDN that Contreras would keep the mount for the Oaks, so, apparently, someone had a change of mind. The move is hardly a surprise. Contreras, a regular at Woodbine, is a capable rider but he's not in the class of Saez, who is a rare talent. The guess is that Secret Oath will be the favorite. She's coming off a very good effort against males in the GI Arkansas Derby and, because of Lukas, the 86-year-old icon trying to win another Kentucky Oaks, she will dominate the storylines coming into the race. Her sire Arrogate passed away at age seven in 2020. Win or lose in the Oaks, she figures to go down as the best horse produced by her ill-fated sire.

2) KATHLEEN O. (Upstart–Quaver, by Blame) O-Winngate Stables, LLC; B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. & Bridlewood Farm (KY); T-Shug McGaughey. Sales History: $8,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $50,000 ylg '20 OBSOCT; $275,000 2yo '21 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 4-4-0-0, $379,730. Last Start: 1st GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start:  Kentucky Oaks.

Maybe she will be the favorite. Considering what she has accomplished, that wouldn't be a surprise. She's four-for-four in her career and gives every indication that she has yet to reach her peak. She represents a perfect example of why trainer Shug McGaughey is in the Hall of Fame. He's a master when it comes to developing horses and getting them to peak on the big day. Starting with her debut, a maiden win at Aqueduct Nov. 12, she has gotten better with every start. This year, she has reeled off three straight wins at Gulfstream, a surface that doesn't fit her come-from-behind style. It's been 29 years since McGaughey last won the Oaks, which he pulled off in 1993 with Dispute. It is his only win in the race.

3) NEST (Curlin–Marion Ravenwood, by A.P. Indy) O-Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners & Michael House; B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $623,050. Last Start: 1st GI Central Bank Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Todd Pletcher won the 2021 Kentucky Oaks with a daughter of Curlin, Malathaat. He will try to do so again with another daughter of Curlin in Nest. Nest could possibly be better than Eclipse Award winner Malathaat. That's how impressive she was when winning the Ashland. After winning the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs in her 3-year-old debut, she faced much stiffer competition in the Ashland, but made it look easy. Ridden by Irad Ortiz, Jr., she drew off in the stretch to win by 8 1/4 lengths. “She looked like a star yesterday,” Pletcher said the morning after the Ashland. “You never expect to win by 8 1/4 lengths, but we felt good about the way she was coming into the race.” Mike Repole is one of her owners. He has spent millions at the sales trying to find superstar colts, but doesn't normally go after many fillies. This one was bought at Keeneland September for $350,000, which looks like a bargain. In most any other year, she'd be the solid favorite in the Oaks. This year, she could be third or fourth choice.

4) ECHO ZULU (Gun Runner–Letgomyecho, by Menifee) 'TDN Rising Star' O-L and N Racing LLC & Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Betz/J. Betz/Burns/CHNNHK/Magers/CoCo Equine/ Ramsby (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, MGISW, 5-5-0-0, $1,720,000. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. KY Oaks Points: 130. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Could Gun Runner, who got off to a sizzling start as a sire, win both the Oaks and the GI Kentucky Derby? With Echo Zulu and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby winner Taiba (Gun Runner), it's entirely possible. She's undefeated and the reigning 2-year-old filly champion, so maybe she deserves to be ranked higher than fourth. But this corner was not enamored with her 3-year-old debut, a nose victory in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks in which she earned the slowest Beyer in her career. She's going to have to run better to win the Kentucky Oaks. Then again, maybe the cagey Steve Asmussen didn't have her at 100%, knowing that the Kentucky Oaks was the real goal? It's a tough call.

5) NOSTALGIC (Medaglia d'Oro–Been Here Before, by Tapit) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-0-0, $235,400. Last Start: 1st GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 101. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's was on the list, off the list and now makes it into the Top 5 with her win Saturday at Aqueduct in the Gazelle. She's had an up-and-down career so far. After finishing fourth in last year's GII Demoiselle S., one of the biggest key races of 2021, she went to the grass, where she was ninth and last in the GIII Sweetest Chant S. at Gulfstream. Trainer Bill Mott sent her back to dirt and she bounced right back with a 6 3/4-length win in a Gulfstream allowance race. She earned her ticket to the Oaks with a 1 1/4-length win in the Gazelle over 11-10 favorite Venti Valentine (Firing Line). Owned by Godolphin, by Medaglia d'Oro out of the Been Here Before, she's certainly got the pedigree to be a star. Mott has never won the Kentucky Oaks.

6) ADARE MANOR (Uncle Mo–Brooklynsway, by Giant's Causeway) O-Michael Lund Petersen; B-Town & Country Horse Farms, LLC & Gary Broad (KY); T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $180,000 ylg '20 FTKFEB; $190,000 RNA ylg '20 FTKSEL; $375,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-0, $256,600. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Among the top names headed for the Oaks, Adare Manor became the first to stub her toe when she finished second as the 7-10 favorite in the Santa Anita Oaks for new trainer Tim Yakteen. It was her first race since winning the GIII Las Virgenes S. and perhaps Yakteen, who took over for Bob Baffert, was trying to save something for Kentucky. Nonetheless, this was a race she was not supposed to lose, even if the margin of victory was just a neck. She was dominant when winning the Las Virgenes by 13 lengths, earning a 94 Beyer figure. If she can run back to that race she'd have a chance in the Oaks. But will she? Maybe she peaked too early.

7) HIDDEN CONNECTION (Connect–C J's Gal, by Awesome Again) O-Hidden Brook Farm & Black Type Thoroughbreds; B-St. Simon Place (KY); T-W. Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $49,000 RNA wlg '19 KEENOV; $40,000 ylg '20 KEESEP; $55,000 RNA 2yo '21 OBSAPR; $85,000 2yo '21 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-0, $399,525. Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 57. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

She's had one start at Churchill Downs and the result was a 9 1/4-length win in the GIII Pocahontas S. It was the best race of her life. So you know that she will handle the track. And she's going to have to run back to that race to have any chance. She's gone 0-for-3 since and is 0-2 on the year. However, she made a forward move last out when battling Echo Zulu in the Fair Grounds Oaks to lose by just a nose. Her jockey, Reylu Gutierrez, looks like a rising star after winning 51 races at the Fair Grounds meet.

8) VENTI VALENTINE (Firing Line–Glory Gold, by Medaglia d'Oro) O-NY Final Furlong Racing Stable & Parkland Thoroughbreds; B-Final Furlong Racing Stable & Maspeth Stable (NY); T-Jorge Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & MGSP, 5-3-2-0, $416,250. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 94. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

At odds of 11-10, she was the beaten favorite in the Gazelle. It was far from a bad race. She was second, losing by just 1 1/4 lengths, and got beat by a potential star in Nostalgic. But, at the same time, she had no excuse and the race showed that she belongs in the second tier when it comes to Kentucky Oaks runners. A good horse, but she'll be 40-1 or thereabouts at Churchill. Could clean up against New York-breds, but she deserves a shot in the Kentucky Oaks.

9) YUUGIRI (Shackleford–Yuzuru, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Sekie Yoshihara & Tsunebumi Yoshihara (KY); T-Rodolphe Brisset. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-2-1, $543,610. Last Start: 1st GIII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 114. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Yuugiri is owned and was bred by Sekie Yoshihara and Tsunebumi Yoshihara, who live in Japan. She is trained by Rodolphe Brisset. She punched her ticket to the Kentucky Oaks with a win in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn, but that race, once Secret Oath opted for the Arkansas Derby, did not come up particularly strong. A better test may have been the GIII Honeybee S., where Secret Oaks trounced her by 9 1/4 lengths. The Oaks will be her fourth start at Churchill Downs. She broke her maiden there in September and then ran second in the Rags to Riches S. and second in the GII Golden Rod S. Another good horse who will be a big long shot in what is a loaded race.

10) Desert Dawn (Cupid–Ashley's Glory, by Honour and Glory) O/B-H and E Ranch, Inc. (AZ); T-Philip D'Amato. Sales history: $32,000 RNA yrl '20 OBSOCT. Lifetime Record: 7-2-0-2, $378,400. Last Start: 1st GII Santa Anita Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 108. Next Start: Kentucky Oaks.

Can an Arizona-bred win the Kentucky Oaks? She'll give it a shot. Was bred by and is owned by Elena and Hollis Crim of H & E Ranch, a 400-acre spread in Globe, Arizona. Normally, the winner of the Santa Anita Oaks would be among the top choices in the Kentucky Oaks, but that won't be the case with this one. She was the longest shot in the field of five at 14-1 and had been off the board in her three prior starts. That includes a sixth-place finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, where she was beaten by 18 3/4 lengths. Ran a career best race at Santa Anita, but that probably won't be enough.

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Taking Stock: Young Stallions Dominate Derby Points Leaders

Led by Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), young stallions with either first- or second-crop representatives account for 11 of the 20 leading point getters for the GI Kentucky Derby, and quite a few of these stallions, Gun Runner included, have the top 12 leading points earners for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks as well.

First-Crop 3-year-olds

Gun Runner, whose first crop is three, has, incredibly, sired four individual Grade I winners so far, the latest of which is Zedan Racing's remarkable Taiba, who won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday in only his second lifetime start. A $1.7-million purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Select 2-year-olds in training sale, Taiba has earned 100 Derby points, tying him for fifth place on the list with Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) and Gold Square's Cyberknife (Gun Runner), a $400,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase who won the Gl Arkansas Derby the weekend before. Gun Runner is also represented by Klaravich Stables's Early Voting, who lost Saturday for the first time in three starts when second by a neck to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in the GII Wood Memorial S. Early Voting, who has 50 points, was a $200,000 Keeneland September yearling.

Among filles, Gun Runner has the undefeated Grade I winner Echo Zulu, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, with 130 points for the Oaks (as well as Shotgun Hottie, outside the top 12 with 41 points). A $300,000 Keeneland September yearling who races for L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, Echo Zulu is second only to Kathleen O. with 150 points.

Echo Zulu won her season debut in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose from Hidden Connection (Connect), a Grade III winner at two from the first crop of Lane's Ends's Connect (Curlin)–also the sire of 2-year-old Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, sixth most recently in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. An $85,000 OBS June 2-year-old racing for Hidden Brook Farm and Black Type Thoroughbreds, Hidden Connection has 57 points for the Oaks, which puts her among the leading 12.

Juddmonte's late Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) hasn't dazzled like Gun Runner, but his first-crop daughter Secret Oath is one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. She was third last out in the Arkansas Derby to Cyberknife and prior to that had dominated fillies at Oaklawn, including a 7 1/2-length score in the GIII Honeybee S. A homebred for Briland Farm, Secret Oath has 80 points for the Oaks, but note that Yuugiri (Shackleford), who won the GIII Fantasy at Oaklawn when Secret Oath took on the boys and has 114 points for the Oaks, was a well-beaten third in the Honeybee.

Coolmore America's Cupid (Tapit) is the sire of first-crop daughter Desert Dawn, an Arizona-bred who won the GII Santa Anita Oaks Saturday by a neck from the previously undefeated Adare Manor (Uncle Mo). She has 108 points for the Oaks and is a homebred for H and E Ranch.
GIII Gotham S. winner Morello (Classic Empire) lost for the first time in four starts in the Wood Memorial after a bad start, finishing sixth, and will reportedly not head to the Derby. Nevertheless, the first-crop son of Coolmore America's Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) has 50 Derby points and races for Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T. Racing. He was a $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old.

Second-Crop 3-year-olds

Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) is the sire of GII Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, who leads all colts with 164 points for the Derby. Epicenter races for Winchell Thoroughbreds and was a $260,000 Keeneland September buy. Not This Time, who had his second top-level winner Saturday when first-crop 4-year-old filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S., is also represented by GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification, with 74 points. Simplification, who was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Saturday, races for Tami Bobo and was a $50,000 RNA at Keeneland November as a weanling. Both Epicenter and Simplification, by the way, are from Candy Ride mares–which is the reverse cross of Gun Runner, who is by Candy Ride from a Giant's Causeway mare.

Airdrie's Upstart (Flatter) has been a revelation this season. He's the sire of Jeff Drown's Zandon, a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling who won the Blue Grass Saturday and sits second on the Derby-points list with 114 behind Epicenter. Upstart is also the sire of Winngate's Kathleen O., a $275,000 OBS April 2-year-old who is undefeated in four starts and won the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this month.

Like Upstart, Darley's Nyquist (Uncle Mo) has contenders for both the Derby and Oaks with second-crop 3-year-olds. The Derby-winning stallion's son Slow Down Andy, a homebred for Reddam Racing, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby at the end of March and has 60 Derby points. Nyquist's filly Turnerloose likewise has 60 points for the Oaks. Owned by Ike and Dawn Thrash, Turnerloose won the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in February and most recently was fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind Echo Zulu and Hidden Connection. The Thrashes purchased Turnerloose for $50,000 at Keeneland September.

Claiborne's resurgent Runhappy (Super Saver) is the sire of Smile Happy, with 70 points. A $185,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy races in the colors of Lucky Seven Stable and was a Grade II winner last year. In two starts this season, Smile Happy was second in both the Blue Grass and the GII Risen Star S.

Hit It a Bomb (War Front), who stands at Spendthrift, is the sire of Magdalena Racing's Tiz the Bomb, winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. He sold for $330,000 at the same Fasig-Tipton select sale as Smile Happy and Cyberknife and has 110 points.

The late Laoban (Uncle Mo), who started his stud career at Sequel in New York and was later transferred to WinStar in Kentucky, is the sire of Cypress Creek Equine's and Whispering Oaks Farm's Un Ojo, winner of the GII Rebel S. Un Ojo, a one-eyed gelding, was most recently off the board in the Arkansas Derby but has 54 points for the Derby.

Among the filles, Crestwood's Firing Line (Line of David) is represented by Venti Valentine, owned by NY Final Furlong Racing and Parkland Thoroughbreds. Bred by NY Final Furlong and Maspeth Stable, the homebred won the GII Demoiselle S. last year and was second Saturday in the GIII Gazelle S. Venti Valentine has 94 points for the Oaks.

The 11 colts by these sires are Taiba, Cyberknife, Early Voting, Morello, Epicenter, Simplification, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and Un Ojo. If you subtract the Japanese entrant–Crown Pride–that's 11 of 19, and if you add in four third-crop 3-year-olds with points in the top 20, then 15 of 19, or an astonishing 79% of the top domestic points earners for the Kentucky Derby this year, were conceived by stallions which had no runners at the time of conception.

Who are the sires of the third-crop 3-year-olds? Exported former Spendthrift stallion Race Day (Tapit) is the sire of White Abarrio, winner of the Florida Derby with 112 points, and Barber Road, second in the Arkansas Derby, with 58 points. Coolmore America's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) is represented by Forbidden Kingdom, who, until a last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, was one of the leading hopes in California with 50 points. And Airdrie's Summer Front (War Front) is the sire of Summer Is Tomorrow, the second-place finisher in the G2 UAE Derby, with 40 points.

That's quite an endorsement for those that patronize or buy weanlings, yearlings, or 2-year-olds by unproven horses. And this isn't necessarily a fluke, either. A year ago, I wrote this piece, “First-Crop Success in Classics,” that examined the sires of U.S. Classic winners from 2001 to 2020 and noted that close to 50% of them were from either the first or second crops of their respective sires.
The four North American-breds by proven sires with Derby points are Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), with 112; Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), with 66; Messier (Empire Maker), with 40; and Zozos (Munnings), with 40.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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