kentucky oaks | Horse Racing Free Tips

Upstart Share Sale Approved by Syndicate

The share in Upstart which sold to Mike Freeny for $450,000 at the Keeneland April Horses of Racing Age Sale last Friday, has been approved by the syndicate, Keeneland confirmed Wednesday.

“Everyone involved with the Upstart share was delighted with the result of the sale on Friday,” Keeneland Vice President of Sales Tony Lacy said. “We are happy to confirm that the contracts were fully executed promptly last Saturday and all parties are very satisfied. The successful sale of this share was made possible by the efforts of many, most notably Bret Jones at Airdrie and Mike Freeny, and Keeneland was pleased to have the opportunity to present this unique offering at the April Sale.”

Upstart, who stands at Brereton Jones's Airdrie Stud, is the sire of Zandon, the morning-line favorite for Saturday's GI Kentucky Derby, as well as leading GI Kentucky Oaks contender Kathleen O.

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Bettor Things: Handicapping the Derby With Joe Bianca & Bill Finley

Generally the hardest race to handicap every year, the 2022 renewal of the GI Kentucky Derby appears even more complicated than most, with a handful of major contenders but no standout favorite, and a seemingly small gap back to the rest of the field. Monday, shortly after the 20-horse field was drawn for Saturday's Run for the Roses, TDN writers and podcast hosts Joe Bianca and Bill Finley broke down the race from a variety of angles to try to provide clarity and insight for Derby bettors. Bianca, who hosts handicapping conversation podcast Bettor Things with Joe Bianca, and Finley, who co-hosts the TDN Writers' Room with Bianca and Jon Green, discussed how the pill pull affected their opinions, the race's major players that they like, as well as short prices they think are vulnerable, sneaky longshots that can spice up exotic bets, how they expect the pace scenario to play out and recent historical trends that can help narrow down win candidates. Then, shortly before wrapping, they touched on what looks like a GI Kentucky Oaks for the ages and whether or not any longshots can threaten the race's 'big four'. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Nest Favored at 5-2 in Kentucky Oaks for the Ages

LOUISVILLE, KY – Just how deep is the 14-horse field assembled for Friday's GI Kentucky Oaks?

Unbeaten champion 2-year-old filly and 'TDN Rising Star' Echo Zulu (Gun Runner), a game front-running winner by a nose while making her sophomore debut in the GII Twinspires.com Fair Grounds Oaks, was installed as the third choice on Mike Battaglia's Kentucky Oaks morning-line at 4-1. Last term's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies heroine, a $300,000 Keeneland September Yearling graduate, was assigned post seven at Monday afternoon's draw held at Churchill Downs.

“She trains like a horse that expects to win and that's a wonderful thing,” Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen said of the L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds colorbearer. “She got tired in her first race off the bench, but the fast fillies are inside of her and we are pleased to draw on the outside of them.”

Repole Stable, Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House's Nest (Curlin), a head-turning heroine of the GI Central Bank Ashland S. at Keeneland, was given the nod as the 5-2 morning-line favorite for the Oaks. The $350,000 Keeneland September Yearling purchase will break from post four. Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, also represented by longshots Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) (post five) and Shahama (Munnings) (post 13), looks to capture his second straight Oaks after saddling Malathaat (Curlin) to a popular score last year.

“I'm happy with the draws for Nest and Goddess of Fire,” four-time Oaks winner Pletcher said. “We were hoping to be somewhere in the middle. With Shahama, it's OK. She isn't real sharp away from the gate, so she may have a better chance out there than if she was stuck down inside.”

The ultra-impressive unbeaten GII Gulfstream Park Oaks winner Kathleen O. (Upstart), assigned post 10, is the second choice at 7-2. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey won the Oaks in 1993 with Dispute.

Secret Oath (Arrogate), a runaway winner of the GIII Honeybee S. and third as the favorite while facing males in the GI Arkansas Derby, drew the rail for the legendary D. Wayne Lukas, who is seeking his fifth Oaks victory. She is 6-1 on the morning-line.

From the rail out, the complete Kentucky Oaks field with morning-line odds:

1-Secret Oath (Arrogate) (6-1)

2-Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro) (15-1)

3-Hidden Connection (Connect) (20-1)

4-Nest (Curlin) (*5-2)

5-Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft) (15-1)

6-Yuugiri (Shackleford) (30-1)

7-Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) (4-1)

8-Venti Valentine (Firing Line) (20-1)

9-Desert Dawn (Cupid) (20-1)

10-Kathleen O. (Upstart) (7-2)

11-Cocktail Moments (Uncle Mo) (30-1)

12-Candy Raid (Candy Ride {Arg}) (30-1)

13-Shahama (Munnings) (15-1)

14-Turnerloose (Nyquist) (20-1)

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Epicenter Puts in Final Derby Work

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Epicenter (Not This Time) put in his final work ahead of next week's GI Kentucky Derby with a five-furlong drill in 1:01.00 (3/6) at Churchill Downs Sunday. Over a muddy track, exercise rider Roberto Howell piloted the GII Louisiana Derby winner through splits of :12.60, :24.40, :36.20, :48.40 and he galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.80.

“Honestly I have so much confidence in Epicenter right now I don't think you could overdo it [with a horse like him],” trainer Steve Asmussen Sunday. “He has taken a lot of training extremely easy. And I thought he took the Louisiana Derby extremely easy, how he came back from the test barn and walked into the barn, and that's why his training and his works ever since have been faster, or stronger, than is the norm for me.”

Epicenter has been working in company with Gun It (Tapit), but his workmate Sunday was 4-year-old maiden winner Alejandro (Curlin).

“It felt perfect, knowing [Alejandro] and how he goes about what he is doing,” Asmussen said. “His previous workmate, Gun It, is a very strong, very physical horse…somewhat hard to manage, and that brings out a little extra in [Epicenter], especially getting to the pole, getting off, getting away from the pole and what you are getting out of it. And as you saw today, they were away from it a lot smoother, just a lot easier to the pole. Still strong, still very smooth. I think [Epicenter] is in a beautiful rhythm, and we are trying to create the circumstances and prepare for what we are expecting to happen in the races this week.”

Asmussen also sent out GI Kentucky Oaks contender Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) to work Sunday at Churchill. Last year's champion 2-year-old filly champion went four furlongs in :50.80 (33/42).

Echo Zulu ended 2021 with a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies and gritted out a win while making her 2022 debut in the Mar. 26 GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

“I thought she won the Fair Grounds Oaks with natural ability and class,” Asmussen said. “She has put in solid training for the Oaks, and then put in a huge move last Sunday. Galloped from there. [Today's work] went typical for her, an easy half mile. I want her razor sharp and fleet as she can be for next Friday.”

Asmussen will be hoping to win his first Kentucky Derby Saturday, but would not admit to feeling any nerves ahead of the race.

“I'm not running. I'm good,” he said. “I am unbelievably excited to be doing this well with this much on the line. I had a pretty anxious drive last night with rain and thunderstorms for most of it, and if it's meant to be, then it's meant to be, but everything seems to be working out perfectly. This year's Oaks and Derby are extremely exciting with how strong the races look and how well all the horses are doing going into it. It is going to be an extremely exciting five or six days.”

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