kentucky oaks | Horse Racing Free Tips

Wide Draw and All, Forte an Overwhelming Presence in Florida Derby

Big Brown (Boundary) took no prisoners from post 12 with a powerful, wire-to-wire performance in the GI Curlin Florida Derby before capturing the first two legs of the Triple Crown in 2008.

It's champion Forte (Violence)'s turn now.

Last term's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner, an eye-catching winner while kicking off his sophomore campaign in the GII Fountain of Youth S. Mar. 4, towers over his 11 rivals on paper in Saturday's Florida Derby. But with a well-documented short run to the first turn going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park, Forte must overcome a disadvantageous wide draw in post 11. He is the 4-5 morning-line favorite.

Regular rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. remains as confident as ever no matter the post.

“He does everything I ask him,” Ortiz said of the Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable colorbearer. “He's always there for me. He can stay all day on his stride. He has a turn of foot but he stays. He stays with that speed–that's good on dirt. I know what he wants to do and how he likes to run. I have a lot of confidence in him.”

Trainer Todd Pletcher added, “The Fountain of Youth couldn't have gone any better for us. As impressively as he's won a couple of these races, he's kind of come to the wire with his ears up taking everything in. Obviously, as these races get a little more difficult, he'll need to stay focused.”

The Florida Derby field also includes: last term's GII Remsen S. winner and disappointing GIII Sam F. Davis S. eighth-place finisher Dubyuhnell (Good Magic); last out GII San Felipe S. fifth-place finisher Fort Bragg (Tapit); and Fountain of Youth third Cyclone Mischief (Into Mischief).

Gulfstream's absolutely stacked 14-race program features 10 stakes races, including the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks; GII Pan American S.; GIII Orchid S.; and GIII Ghostzapper S.

Wide-Open Arkansas Derby…

While the 11-deep GI Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn may lack a standout or star power like its Gulfstream counterpart, it should nonetheless present some fantastic wagering opportunities.

Red Route One (Gun Runner) and Reincarnate (Good Magic), a rallying second and third in a sloppy renewal of the local prep in the GII Rebel S. Feb. 25, could vie for favoritism. The former adds blinkers for Steve Asmussen. Reincarnate, a game winner of the GIII Sham S. Jan. 8 for previous trainer Bob Baffert, looks like the one to beat after an eventful trip in his first try for Tim Yakteen in the Rebel. He is the 5-2 morning-line favorite.

“We didn't have the best of luck last time,” Yakteen said. “Hopefully, we'll get a clean break away from there and Johnny [Velazquez] will play the break and put himself where he feels the horse is going to be most comfortable. Obviously, we'd like to be closer to the pace than necessarily be completely out of it like we were the last time.”

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire) will be out for respect after upsetting the GII Risen Star S. at 13-1 for Brad Cox while GIII Holy Bull S. winner Rocket Can (Into Mischief) won't have to worry about facing Forte again just yet after finishing a solid second behind the current GI Kentucky Derby favorite in the Fountain of Youth.

The Arkansas Derby program also includes GI Kentucky Oaks prep GIII Fantasy S., featuring the highly regarded Godolphin homebred Wet Paint (Blame), and the GIII Oaklawn Mile S.

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Nyquist Filly Goes Gate to Wire in Sunland Park Oaks

Locally based Flying Connection turned in a powerful front-running performance Sunday to stamp her ticket to the GI Kentucky Oaks. The bay closed out last season with a convincing tally in the Zia Princess S., and resurfaced in the local Borderplex S. to be third at 30 cents on the dollar. She bounced back while stretching out to best Love Tank by more than nine lengths in the Island Fashion S. Feb. 28, but had to contend with Bob Baffert-trained invader Doinitthehardway this time.

Able to seize a narrow advantage into the first turn from the hard-ridden odds-on Doinitthehardway, Flying Connection posted splits of :22.89, :46.09 and 1:11.14. She was all by herself at that point, and kept on kicking to pick up 50 Kentucky Oaks points.

Nyquist also sired last year's GIII Sunland Derby winner Slow Down Andy, and the runner-up in this year's renewal. The winner's dam raced almost exclusively in sprints on synthetic, including when third in the 2009 GI Breeders' Cup F/M Sprint. The daughter of MGSW Ruby Surprise (Farma Way) has a 2-year-old colt named Laugh for Sul (Practical Joke, $40K KEESEP), and a yearling colt by McKinzie. She most recently visited Constitution.

SUNLAND PARK OAKS, $300,000, Sunland, 3-26, 3yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:43.90, ft.
1–FLYING CONNECTION, 121, f, 3, by Nyquist
1st Dam: Free Flying Soul (MSW & MGISP, $423,177), by Quiet American
2nd Dam: Ruby Surprise, by Farma Way
3rd Dam: Santa Rosalia, by Bold Bidder
($250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-King, Brad, Andrews, Randy,
Coleman, G. Chris, Cone, Jim, Kirby, Suzanne and Lewis, Lee;
B-Liberty Road Stables (KY); T-Todd W. Fincher; J-Alfredo J.
Juarez, Jr. $176,400. Lifetime Record: 7-4-0-1, $294,700.
2–Love Tank, 121, f, 3, Kitten's Joy–Perichole (Brz), by Fahim
(GB). ($30,000 Ylg '21 FTKOCT; $55,000 2yo '22 KEENOV).
O-Judge Lanier Racing and Drought, James L.; B-Bonne Chance
Farm LLC (KY); T-Nancy Summers. $64,680.
3–Don't Get Pickled, 121, f, 3, Misremembered–C C's Pride, by
Successful Appeal. ($9,500 Ylg '21 ARZNOV). 1ST BLACK TYPE.
O-Stable H. M. A.; B-Harry K Keshian & Cheryl Keshian (CA);
T-Miguel L. Hernandez. $29,400.
Margins: 2 1/4, 6HF, 3/4. Odds: 1.30, 19.90, 37.60.
Also Ran: Una Palabra, Doinitthehardway, Cairo Moon, Foolish Delight.
Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Southlawn Upsets Fair Grounds Oaks

Southlawn (f, 3, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo), a runaway, eight-length optional claiming winner at Fair Grounds with first-time Lasix in her sophomore debut Feb. 17, ran back to that effort in a big way to upset Saturday's GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

Drawn on the fence, the 7-1 chance trailed the field of five heading into the clubhouse turn. Southlawn traveled nicely in an inside fourth down the backstretch and set her sights on the top two as they straightened.

Last out GII Rachel Alexandra S. heroine and 'TDN Rising Star' Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) took over from favored Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) and looked well on her way as they straightened, but Southlawn was just winding up. Tipped out into the clear, Southlawn came rolling over the top to win going away by 3 1/4 lengths. Pretty Mischievous was second; The Alys Look (Connect) was third.

Southlawn, fifth as the favorite behind champion Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief) going 5 1/2 furlongs on debut at Churchill June 3, was a five-length maiden winner going a mile at second asking with blinkers added in an Ellis off-the-turfer July 31. Thrown right into the deep end, she was a well-beaten seventh in the GIII Pocahontas S. at Churchill Sept. 17. Switched to grass facing allowance company in her next two, she was off the board on both occasions, finishing ninth at Keeneland Oct. 28 and fifth in her juvenile finale at Churchill Nov. 20.

Pedigree Notes:

Southlawn, a $290,000 KEESEP yearling, becomes the 25th graded/48th stakes winner for the late Pioneerof the Nile. Broodmare sire Uncle Mo is now responsible for four graded winners and 11 stakes winners. SW & MGSP Mo d'Amour, a half-sister to MGSP Colonial Creed (Jimmy Creed), is also represented by a Quality Road colt of 2021 ($300,000 KEESEP yearling) and a Constitution colt of this year. Mo d'Amour, a $22,000 KEESEP yearling and $75,000 OBSMAR juvenile, outran her 37-1 odds to finish fifth in the 2016 GI Kentucky Oaks. She carried the colors of WinStar for her 4-year-old campaign after being purchased privately from King of Prussia Stable.

Saturday, Fair Grounds
FAIR GROUNDS OAKS PRESENTED BY FASIG-TIPTON-GII, $376,000, Fair Grounds, 3-25, 3yo, f, 1 1/16m, 1:44.38, ft.
1–SOUTHLAWN, 122, f, 3, by Pioneerof the Nile
1st Dam: Mo d'Amour (SW & MGSP, $311,360), by Uncle Mo
2nd Dam: Neverthesame, by Scat Daddy
3rd Dam: Salut d'Amour (Ire), by Danehill Dancer (Ire)
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($290,000
Ylg '21 KEESEP). O-Robert E. Masterson; B-WinStar Farm, LLC
(KY); T-Norm W. Casse; J-Reylu Gutierrez. $240,000. Lifetime
Record: 7-3-0-0, $318,369. Werk Nick Rating: A+++.
*Triple Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
Click for the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Pretty Mischievous, 122, f, 3, Into Mischief–Pretty City
Dancer, by Tapit. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan P. Walsh.
$80,000. 'TDN Rising Star'.
3–The Alys Look, 122, f, 3, Connect–Foul Play,
by Harlan's Holiday. 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($60,000 Ylg
'21 KEESEP). O-Ike and Dawn Thrash; B-G. Watts Humphrey
(KY); T-Brad H. Cox. $40,000.
Margins: 3 1/4, 3 3/4, 8 1/4. Odds: 7.70, 1.30, 4.40.
Also Ran: Hoosier Philly, Christian d'Oro.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.

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Amoss Remains High on Hoosier Philly

At odds of 2-5 and so highly regarded that she was the only filly included in Round 4 of the Derby Future Wager, Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) was a well-beaten third in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. at the Fair Grounds Feb. 18. It was the last thing trainer Tom Amoss expected from a filly he had called the best horse he ever trained and who was 3-for-3 going in.

But as Hoosier Philly prepares for a start in the Mar. 25 GII Fair Grounds Oaks, Amoss said everything he has seen tells him that his filly is about to show everyone what all the hype was about.

Has he lost any confidence in the horse? “Zero,” he replied. “I still think she's the best horse I have ever had in my barn.”

Amoss spoke shortly after Hoosier Philly worked five furlongs at the Fair Grounds Thursday morning in 1:00. It was her third work since the Rachel Alexandra.

“I've had her since June of her 2-year-old year,” said Amoss, who confirmed that Edgar Morales has retained the mount. “I know her personality. The way she has trained and the way she has worked out since her last race gives me a lot of confidence going into this next race.”

Yet, he was saying pretty much the same thing before the Rachel Alexandra and he knows that Hoosier Philly did not back up his high expectations. So what happened? Amoss believes that she was compromised by a less than perfect trip.

“You have to be honest with yourself. It was not a good race,” Amoss said. “Then you have to figure out why it was not a good race. What was behind it? Nine times out of 10 when a horse has a bad trip in a race it starts right out of the gate. That's exactly what happened. She left the gate fine. She almost broke a little too hard. Then she stumbled and lost her balance a bit and found herself in a bad spot. The way to race ride, especially when there is a big favorite in the race, is to take advantage of something like that. The riders riding against her very alertly made her trip a very difficult one. The next thing you know she's last. She's eager and wanting to go. The pace wasn't very fast and there's no place for her to go. The pace was not only slow but look at chart of the race. Nobody changed positions except for her. Those things hurt in a race. She found herself in a position she wasn't used to being in.”

At the top of the stretch and very much within striking position, Morales wheeled Hoosier Philly to the outside and she had a clear run. She didn't respond, losing even more ground on the leaders in the stretch, losing by 8 1/2 lengths.

“I thought even after tough trip, turning for home she would show some punch and she did not,” Amoss admitted. “That was a concern.”

It was a major blow not just for those who bet Hoosier Philly in the Rachel Alexandra but for anyone who wagered on her in the Derby Future Wager. She went off at 11-1, third choice behind the “all others” option and Forte (Violence). A total of $16,956 was bet on her. Amoss has ruled out a start in the Derby and wishes she had not been included in the wager in the first place. Along with Julia Shining (Curlin), Hoosier Philly was one of only two fillies nominated to the Triple Crown.

“I'm not the guy who decided to put her in the future pool,” he said. “Nobody ever came to me and said we want to put her in the Derby Future pool, are you good with that? I don't know what determines what goes into that. I can't worry about that. I'm just trying to do right by my horse. I never wanted the public to be led in the wrong direction. Had they asked me, I wouldn't have been comfortable putting her in the Derby Future Pool. I don't think it was fair to have people betting on something that may not occur.”

Hoosier Philly went off at 7-1 in the one round of the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager, which closed last Sunday. Should she win the Fair Grounds Oaks impressively that will look like a bargain. But will she? There are too many unknowns this time for her to be a heavy favorite. Amoss knows that and knows that this is the most important race thus far in her career. Was the Rachel Alexandra for, whatever reason, a race that you can throw out? Or did Hoosier Philly not make the all important transition from two to three? Or maybe she just isn't as good as everyone thought. Every one of those questions should be answered in her next start.

“I'll be nervous when she goes to the gate,” Amoss said. “Leading into the race I'm just trying to concentrate on the things I can control and I think we've done a good job taking care of those things. I would love to think that last race was a one off. There is enough evidence to suggest it will be. This race coming up will determine whether that's true or not. I know that.”

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