Kentucky Oaks Top 10 | Horse Racing Free Tips

The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 For Feb. 22

We have a new No. 1. Tarifa (Bernardini) beat a stellar field in the GII Rachel Alexandra S. at the Fair Grounds to soar up the list to the top spot. We've dropped Candied (Candy Ride {Arg}), who has only had two three furlongs works so far this year, raising the possibility that she won't be ready for the GI Kentucky Oaks. We've also dropped Alpine Princess (Classic Empire) after a disappointing fourth-place finish in the Rachel Alexandra and Life Talk (Gun Runner), who was a disappointing sixth in the Suncoast S. for Repole/Pletcher. The spotlight this weekend will be on the GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Park, which includes two members of our top 10.

Here's a look at the third installment of our Kentucky Oaks Top 10:

1) TARIFA (f, Bernardini–Kite Beach, by Awesome Again) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-0, $278,925. Last start: WON Feb. 17 GII Rachel Alexandra S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next start: GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 23 or GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 5

We didn't even have this filly on prior Top 10 lists, but she did enough in her win in the Rachel Alexandra to move all the way up to the top spot. Making her first start in a stakes and going up against some tough, more experienced horses, this was no easy spot for the daughter of Bernardini as she was facing, among others, GII Golden Rod S. winner Intricate (Gun Runner). But she made it look easy, drawing off to win by 2 3/4 lengths under Flavien Prat, picking up a Beyer figure of 90, the same number given to GII Risen Star S. winner Sierra Leone (Gun Runner). As usual, trainer Brad Cox is loaded with talent in the 3-year-old filly division and will be searching for his third win in the race since 2018. With the sire's death in 2021, Tarifa is a member of Bernardini's penultimate crop to hit the track.

2) JUST F Y I (f, Justify–Star Act, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-George Krikorian (Ky); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo filly, GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,317,750. Last start: WON Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 2.

Just F Y I | Benoit Photography

Hard to knock the champ down a spot in this poll when she hasn't done anything wrong. But it's becoming apparent with each prep that she's going to have to step up her game when it comes to how fast she is. While a horse like Tarifa picked up a 90 Beyer in her last start, Just FYI has never run faster than a 79. That's not to say she can't do it. Horses can improve dramatically from two to three and in Bill Mott she is being trained by one of the very best in the business. She's had five workouts so far this winter at Payson Park, the latest being a five-furlong breeze on Feb. 17 in 1:03.60, so look for Mott to tighten the screws in the coming weeks.

3) JODY'S PRIDE (f, American Pharoah–Jody's Song, by Scat Daddy) O-Parkland Thoroughbreds & Sportsmen Stable; B-Mr. Steve Weston (Ky); T-Jorge R Abreu. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 3-2-1-0, $480,250. Last start: 2nd Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Kentucky Oaks Points: 15. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 2.

The runner-up in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, Jody's Pride is also being pointed for the GII Davona Dale S. at Gulfstream, which will mark her 3-year-old debut. The Davona Dale looks like it's going to come up very strong. The knock on Jody's Pride is the same as it is on Just F Y I. She's not particularly fast and the 79 she got in the Juvenile Fillies is her all-time best number. If this doesn't work out she can always try the turf as she is by American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile). In the Juvenile Fillies, she was ridden by Flavien Prat, who also has the mount on Tarifa.

4) KOPION (f, Omaha Beach—Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Tall Oaks Farm (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $270,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $116,600. Last start: 2nd Feb. 10 GIII Las Virgenes S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 6

Kopion | Benoit

Kopion is not the best 3-year-old filly based in Southern California. Kinza (Carpe Diem) is, and she beat her handily in the GIII Las Virgenes S. on Feb. 10. But Kinza is trained by Bob Baffert, which means she is effectively banned from running in the Oaks. Kopion might be second on the Southern California depth chart, but she's a good filly in her own right. In just three lifetime starts, she's won a Grade III and placed in another. Is trained by Richard Mandella, who likes to take his time with his horses, so it may be that we haven't seen her best yet. Still another filly ridden by Flavien Prat, who is the regular rider of three of the top four horses in this poll.

5) LESLIE'S ROSE (f, Into Mischief–Wildwood Rose {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm; B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock Services (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,150,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $89,950. Last start: WON Jan. 11 AOC at Gulfstream Park. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 2.

Has an interesting pedigree. Is by Into Mischief (Harlan's Holiday) out of an unraced Galileo (Ire) mare and she wasn't cheap. Owner Mandy Pope paid $1,150,000 for her at Keeneland September. She's only raced twice, has yet to run in a stakes race and has never gone beyond seven furlongs, so she has some catching up to do. In her last race, she won a Gulfstream allowance by a length and had to fight off a challenge from Gun Song (Gun Runner). That filly came back and won her next start by 5 3/4 lengths. Leslie's Rose will have to do more to solidify her status as a top Kentucky Oaks threat, but it's clear that she has a world of potential.

6) POWER SQUEEZE (f, Union Rags–Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again) O-Lea Farms, LLC; B-Forging Oaks Farm (KY); T-Jorge Delgado. Sales history: $50,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $90,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: MSW, 5-3-1-0, $188,650. Last start: WON Feb. 10 Suncoast S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, GP, Mar. 30.

Trained by up-and-coming trainer Jorge Delgado, she's been carefully managed so far this year. After she broke her maiden at Delaware Park in October, she came back to win two non-graded races this year, the Cash Run S. and the Suncoast S. Will have a much stiffer test in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, but very well could be up to the task. Life Talk was supposed to dominate in the Suncoast, but threw in a clunker, so there's no telling how good the competition behind Power Squeeze was. Was ridden by Daniel Centeno in the Suncoast. Will be interesting to see if Delgado goes for a more high profile jockey for the next start.

7) WEST OMAHA (f, West Coast–Birthday Bash, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $203,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Sillverbulletday S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 25. Next Start: GIII Honeybee S., OP, Feb. 24.

She was last seen winning the Jan. 20 Silverbulletday S. at the Fair Grounds and is now slated to run in Saturday's GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn Park. The Silverbulletday was a fairly soft spot so she may need to improve to win the Honeybee. Is a Brad Cox trainee and a homebred from the Gary and Mary West operation. The Wests have yet to win a Kentucky Oaks. She was entered in the Rachel Alexandra and was one of three trained by Cox entered. But he scratched West Omaha and put her on a van to Oaklawn, no doubt trying to find a way to keep some of his horses apart.

8) INTRICATE (f, Gun Runner–Complex Analysis, by Distorted Humor) O-Bradley Thoroughbreds, Laura Leigh Stable, Scot Estes & Cambron Equine, LLC; B-LBD Stable, LLC (Ky); T-Brendan Walsh. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $362,180. Last start: 2nd GII Rachel Alexandra S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 35. Next Start: GII Fair Grounds Oaks, FG, Mar. 23

Didn't run a bad race at all when second in the Rachel Alexandra when beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Tarifa. But she was the 17-10 favorite, so the race should go down as a mild disappointment. Has drawn comparisons to last year's Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) because both are trained by Brendan Walsh. Pretty Mischievous also had one off day on her way to Oaks glory, finishing second in the Fair Grounds Oaks. No reason why Intricate can't rebound.

9) BAND OF GOLD (f, Preservationist–Play for Gold by Cairo Prince) O-Dixiana Farms LLC; B-Brereton C. Jones (Ky); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales history: $70,000 wnlg '21 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-0-0, $206,000. Last start: WON Feb. 3 Martha Washington S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GIII Honeybee S., OP, Feb. 24.

Band of Gold | Coady

The Honeybee will be a big test for this Kenny McPeek trainee. She's coming off a 2 3/4-length win in the Martha Washington, but some may want to downgrade the effort since she was 24-1 that day and she was not good in her previous start, the Untapable S. Was it a fluke? With her having gone from a 63 Beyer to a 86 in the Martha Washington, may also be a bounce candidate.

10) RECHARGE (f, Gun Runner–Remit, by Tapit) O/B-Winchell Thoroughbreds (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $189,498. Last start: WON Feb. 18 Sunland Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GIII Fantasy S., OP, Mar. 30.

It looks Steve Asmussen has his horse for the Oaks. Recharge is undefeated in three starts and was last seen winning the Sunland Park Oaks. Prior to that, she broke her maiden at Remington and then won an allowance at Sam Houston, so, apparently, was not part of Asmussen's first string. There are definitely questions regarding who she has beaten, but there's also plenty of time for Asmussen to improve her and have her ready for tougher spots.

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 For Feb. 22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Feb. 8

Churchill Downs' ban of Bob Baffert and the decision by his owners to keep their horses with the trainer, even though that means they cannot run at Churchill, will affect not just the Derby. Though Baffert's group of 3-year-old fillies is not as deep or as impressive as his collection of 3-year-old colts, he does have some fillies that, in a normal year, would be Oaks candidates. He has GII Starlet S. winner Nothing Like You (Malibu Moon). But his best filly may be Kinza (Carpe Diem), who rocketed to a 7 1/2-length win in her debut, earning a 96 Beyer figure. Both Baffert fillies were entered in the GIII Las Virgenes S., which has been rescheduled due to the rains in California. It is now set to be run this Saturday.

Here's a look at the second installment of our Kentucky Oaks Top 10:

1) JUST F Y I (f, Justify–Star Act, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-George Krikorian (Ky); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,317,750. Last start: WON Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 2.

It's well known that winners of the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile have had a difficult time winning the Kentucky Derby. It's happened only twice in the 40 years that the Breeders' Cup has been around. The record of GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies winners in the GI Kentucky Oaks is just as bad. Only two have turned the trick–1999 Oaks winner Silverbulletday and 1989 Oaks winner Open Mind. Can Just F Y I become the third? That remains to be seen, but she still deserves to be No. 1 in this poll or any similar polls. It looks like she will get an early test as trainer Bill Mott reports that she will make her 3-year-old debut in the GII Davona Dale S. Mar. 2 at Gulfstream. She didn't exactly blow away the competition last year, but her win in the Juvenile Fillies showed that she was the best of her division.

2) CANDIED (f, Candy Ride {Arg}–Toni Tools, by Roaring Fever) O-Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners; B-Buck Pond Farm, Inc. (Ky); T-Todd A Pletcher. Sales history: $165,000 yrl '22 FTJUL. Lifetime Record: GISW, 3-2-0-1, $595,800. Last start: 3rd Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Filles. Kentucky Oaks Points: 19. Next Start: TBD.

Sold for the bargain price of $165,000 at Fasig-Tipton July, GI Alcibiades winner Candied just missed in the Juvenile Fillies, finishing third, beaten just three quarters of a length. It looks like trainer Todd Pletcher may have to play a game of catch-up with her as, through Wednesday, her only published workout was a three-furlong breeze on Feb. 2 in which she went in :39.73 at Palm Beach Downs. Owner Aron Wellman explained the strategy, which will likely include just one prep for the Oaks. “We wanted to freshen her up after the Breeders' Cup,” Wellman said. “It was a huge performance and she was unlucky not to win it. In her work, she went an easy three-eighths by herself and that should move her forward. She doesn't necessarily need two preps to get ready. She tends to get herself fit pretty quickly.”

Trainer Jorge Abreu has confirmed to the Daily Racing Form that his Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies runner-up will make her 2024 debut in the Davona Dale, which would produce a rematch of the first two across the wire in the Juvenile Fillies. He told the DRF that one of the reasons he chose the Davona Dale is that he has lined up Irad Ortiz, Jr. for the mount. So far as Jody's Pride's run in the Juvenile Fillies, here is what Abreu had to tell the DRF: “Great effort, especially going from six furlongs to two turns. It didn't faze her at all, needed one more jump.” Interesting that the connections originally wanted to turn her into a turf horse, which makes sense since she is by American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile). Her first two races, a Saratoga maiden and the Matron S., were washed off the turf. She won both before her solid effort in the Breeders' Cup.

4) INTRICATE (f, Gun Runner–Complex Analysis, by Distorted Humor) O-Bradley Thoroughbreds, Laura Leigh Stable, Scot Estes & Cambron Equine, LLC; B-LBD Stable, LLC (Ky); T-Brendan Walsh. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $280,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $302,180. Last start: WON Nov. 25 GII Golden Rod S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 10. Next Start: GII Rachel Alexandra S., FG, Feb. 17.

If you believe in the Beyer figures, this may be the horse for you. She earned an 85 when winning the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill. That's better than Just F Y I, whose career best was the 79 she ran winning the Juvenile Fillies. It looks like trainer Brendan Walsh is starting to turn the screws on her as her Feb. 3 workout, five furlongs in 1:00.20 at the Fair Grounds, was her best so far this year. Walsh has her on the same path that he had 2023 Oaks winner Pretty Mischievous (Into Mischief) on, the GII Rachel Alexandra S. followed by the GII Fair Grounds Oaks. The last trainer to win back-to-back runnings of the Kentucky Oaks is Wayne Lukas, who won in 1989 with Open Mind and in 1990 with Seaside Attraction.

5) KOPION (f, Omaha Beach—Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Tall Oaks Farm (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $270,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $96,600. Last Start: WON Jan. 7 GIII Santa Ynez S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 10. Next Start: GIII Las Virgenes S., SA, Feb. 10.

She has had to wait a week, but Kopion will get the biggest test of her career when she goes in Saturday's rescheduled Las Virgenes S. She's coming off a win in the GIII Santa Ynez S., in which she scored a 5 3/4-length wire-to-wire win. She still has to prove she can win when stretching out and around two turns. But if she can carry speed for nine furlongs she will be very dangerous. She is a half-sister to Ami's Flatter (Flatter), the Canadian champion 3-year-old male in 2016. Has been so highly regarded by the bettors that she went off at 3-10 when winning her debut and at 1-5 in the Santa Ynez.

6) LIFE TALK (f, Gun Runner–Touchy Feely, by Bernardini) O-Repole Stable; B-Gun Runner Syndicate, Mulholland Springs, LLC & Tom Grether Farms, Inc. (Ky); T-Todd A Pletcher. Sales history: $160,000 wnlg '21 KEENOV; $335,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $364,250. Last start: WON Dec. 2 GII Demoiselle S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 19. Next Start: Suncoast S., Tam, Feb. 10.

Will owner Mike Repole win a Kentucky Oaks before he wins a Kentucky Derby? Life Talk could make that possible. We'll know more after this weekend's Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs, a race that Pletcher often points for with 3-year-old fillies making their first start of the year. It doesn't appear that the competition will be that stiff, so expect this filly to kick off her 3-year-old season with a win. She didn't show a lot when third in the Frizette and fourth in the Juvenile Fillies, but a different horse showed up for the GII Demoiselle at Aqueduct. Sent off at even-money, she led every step of the way on her way to a 3 3/4-length win.

7) LESLIE'S ROSE (f, Into Mischief–Wildwood Rose {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Whisper Hill Farm; B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock Services (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,150,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $89,950. Last start: WON Jan. 11 AOC at Gulfstream Park. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0. Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Mar. 2.

Say this much about Mandy Pope, she's not afraid to spend her money in search of a good horse. Leslie's Rose was a $1,150,000 purchase at Keeneland September. She's earned just $89,950, but there's little doubt that the best has yet to come. She's 2-for-2 with her last win coming in a seven-furlong allowance at Gulfstream. Slated to go next in the Davona Dale, that race will give her the chance to prove that she is an upper echelon filly. She's had five half-mile works since mid-December.

8) ALPINE PRINCESS (f, Classic Empire–Le Moine, by Curlin) O-Full of Run Racing, LLC & Madaket Stable LLC; B-Betz/DJ Stable/Peter Lamantia/Classic Empire Syndicate (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $190,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-3-0-1, $210,810. Last Start: WON Dec. 23 Untapable S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 10. Next Start: TBD.

The Brad Cox-trained filly is coming off a win in the Untapable S., which has turned into a key race. Runner-up West Omaha (West Coast) went on to win the Silverbulletday S. and fifth-place finisher Band of Gold (Preservationist) won last Saturday's Martha Washington S. at Oaklawn Park. She was beaten 28 1/4 lengths in the Alcibiades after acting up at the gate. Since then, she's been perfect, winning an allowance and the Untapable. Florent Geroux is the rider. He and Cox have teamed up to win the 2020 Oaks with Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil) and the 2018 Oaks with Monomoy Girl (Tapizar).

9) WEST OMAHA (f, West Coast–Birthday Bash, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 4-2-2-0, $203,000. Last start: WON Jan. 20 Sillverbulletday S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 25. Next Start: GII Rachel Alexandra S, FG, Feb. 17 or GIII Honeybee S., OP, Feb. 24.

She won the Silverbulletday, but will still have to answer some questions as the field for that race came up light. She was the 9-10 favorite. Cox will surely try to keep her and Alpine Princess apart, choosing between the Oaklawn and Fair Grounds routes to the Oaks. Cox also has Busanda S, winner Gin Gin (Hightail), who will take the New York-route to the Oaks. West Omaha will try to give owner-breeder Gary and Mary West their first Oaks win.

10) BAND OF GOLD (f, Preservationist–Play for Gold by Cairo Prince) O-Dixiana Farms LLC; B-Brereton C. Jones (Ky); T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales history: $70,000 wnlg '21 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-2-2-0, $206,000. Last start: WON Feb. 3 Martha Washington S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GIII Honeybee S., OP, Feb. 24.

The only newcomer to the list this week, she scored an upset win in the Martha Washington at odds of 24-1. Just a $70,000 purchase at Keeneland September, she rebounded off a poor effort in the Untapable where she was fifth. “In the Untapable, she never really figured out what she was supposed to do out there,” trainer Ken McPeek said. She got an 86 Beyer in the Martha Washingon. Will need to improve to take the next step, but trainer McPeek is never afraid of a challenge.

The post TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for Feb. 8 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Lack of Points Have Big Names on Outside Looking In

The last of the prep races for the GI Kentucky Oaks have been run, which means we have a pretty good idea who will be in the starting gate come May 5 in a race that is limited to 14 starters. As of now, you need 50 points to make the field, which is not good news for a handful of fillies who once looked like locks to make the race. Last year's 2-year-old filly champion, Wonder Wheel (Into Mischief), who held the top spot in this poll for several weeks, has 48 points and is 15th on the list. She needs just one defection to get in. Other notable fillies not among the top 14 are Julia Shining (Curlin), Hoosier Philly (Into Mischief) and Punchbowl (Uncle Mo). They are 17th, 18th and 19th, respectively, in the points standings. Since none of these horses are guaranteed to race in the Oaks they have been left off of our Top 10, the last for this year.

1) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire})

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $689,000. Last Start: Won GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 170.

Wet Paint didn't run last weekend, but her status as the Oaks favorite was nonetheless solidified. Defining Purpose (Cross Traffic) won the GI Ashland over Punchbowl, Julia Shining and Wonder Wheel. That's the same Defining Purpose who was sixth, beaten five lengths, by Wet Paint in the GIII Honeybee S. at Oaklawn and was third behind Wet Paint in the Martha Washington S. With Faiza (Girvin), an easy winner of the GII Santa Anita Oaks, passing on the Kentucky Oaks, Wet Paint is your obvious favorite for trainer Brad Cox. She swept Oaklawn's series of Kentucky Oaks preps and was a handy winner each time. She has been beaten on the turf and on a synthetic surface, but never on the dirt. As good as Cox is overall, his biggest strength seems to be with developing fillies. If she runs her race, it may be a battle for second.

2) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame)

O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $374,410. Last Start: Won the Bourbonette S. at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

Another filly from the Brad Cox barn, she's been a terror on the Tapeta track at Turfway Park, where she romped in four straight races. Can she transfer that form to the dirt? Cox has said he will know more after she has had a couple of works at Churchill Downs. She had her first Churchill work on Apr. 7 and breezed four furlongs in :49.20. She has tactical speed and has won two of her last three in gate-to-wire fashion. But she can also sit off the pace, which she did in the Cincinnati Trophy S., where she was third early. If she runs as well on the dirt as she did on the synthetic surface at Turfway she should be right there.

3) SOUTHLAWN (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo)

O-Robert Masterson. B-WinStar Farm (Ky). T-Norm Casse. Sales history: $290,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-0-0, $318,369. Last Start: Won the GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

At one point it appeared that one of the storylines for the Oaks could be a father-versus-son showdown between Hall of Famer Mark Casse and his son, Norm. But with Mark Casse's Wonder Wheel having struggled this year, it may be left up to the younger Casse to carry the banner for the family. Not that Norm isn't a very good trainer in his own right. With 29 percent winners this year, he's never been hotter. After serving as his father's assistant, he went out on his own in 2018. Southlawn has won two straight, including the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, and can give Casse the biggest win of his young career.

4) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star'

O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-1, $501,310. Last Start: 2nd GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 103.

She was no match for Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks, where she finished second, 3 1/4 lengths behind her rival. Not that it was a bad race. This filly has never run worse than third and is as consistent as any horse in the division. She'll show up on May 5. She's also a two-time winner at Churchill. Trainer Brendan Walsh has never had a Kentucky Oaks or GI Kentucky Derby winner and is also winless in the Breeders' Cup, but his stable is getting better and bigger every year and it seems like only a matter of time until he has the breakthrough win.

5) DEFINING PURPOSE (f, Cross Traffic–Defining Hope, by Strong Hope)

O-Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek), Colette VanMatre & Hames Ball. B-Colette VanMatre (Ky). T-Kenny McPeek. Lifetime Record: 7-3-0-1, $543,688. Last Start: Won the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland Apr. 7. Kentucky Oaks Points: 107.

Never count out trainer Kenny McPeek. He's never afraid to throw a longshot into a big race and has won dozens of stakes when few gave him a chance. That was the case with Defining Purpose in the Ashland, where she was 20-1 for a reason. She was coming off a blah performance in the GIII Honeybee S. and, before that, finished third as the even-money favorite in the Martha Washington. She's 0-for-2 against Wet Paint, so it's hard to make a case that she can beat her. But stranger things have happened, especially when it comes to a horse who appears to be on the improve. Note that Brian Hernandez, Jr. rode both Defining Purpose and Pretty Mischievous in their last races.

6) AFFIRMATIVE LADY (f, Arrogate–Stiffed, by Stephen Got Even)

O-AMO Racing USA. B-Alastar Thoroughbred Co., LLC (Ky). T-H. G. Motion. Sales history: $210,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-2, $270,568. Last Start: Won GII Gulfstream Park Oaks Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 110.

From day one, Graham Motion has campaigned this horse like she was something special. After losses in back-to-back maiden races at the start of her career, Motion had her in the GII Demoiselle S., where she lost by just a neck to Julia Shining. It was back in another stakes, the Busanda S., where she finished third. Finally, in her fifth career start, she landed in a maiden at Gulfstream, which she won. The GII Gulfstream Park Oaks was next and, with a two-length win, she earned her way into the Kentucky Oaks field. The Gulfstream race didn't come up particularly strong, so she'll have to prove herself against tougher company at Churchill.

7) GAMBLING GIRL (f, Dialed In–Tulipmania, by Empire Maker)

O-Repole Stable. B-Gallagher's Stud (NY). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales History: $200,000 yrl '21 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 9-2-2-2, $257,410. Last Start: 2nd GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 61.

While Mike Repole's main focus Derby week will come with Forte (Violence), the likely favorite in the first leg of the Triple Crown, it looks like he's got an outside shot of pulling off the Oaks-Derby double with Forte and Gambling Girl. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has a chance to become only the fourth trainer to pull off the Oaks-Derby double and the first since Ben Jones, who won the 1952 Oaks with Real Delight and Derby with Hill Gail. Jones also did it in 1949. To do so, Gambling Girl will need to run the race of her life. She flourished much of last year against New York-breds, but has been facing open company since appearing in the Dec. 3 Demoiselle. After two more losses in open company stakes, she was second last weekend in the GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct. That gave her enough points to make the Oaks, but she still needs to prove she can win an open company stakes, where she's 0-for-4 so far.

8) PROMISEHER AMERICA (f, American Pharoah–Promisedyouheaven, by Unbridled's Song)

O-Hoffman Thoroughbreds & Tom F. McCrocklin. B-Robert & Lawana Low (Ky). T-Raymond Handal. Sales History: $75,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-1-0, $198,138. Last Start: Won GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.

She cost just $75,000 at the Ocala Breeders' Sale Spring sale and was beaten 20 1/2 lengths in her debut in December at Aqueduct. Yet, somehow here she is, an Oaks starter after scoring a massive upset in the Gazelle at 26-1. Underrated trainer Ray Handal must have figured something out because she has improved in every race after her poor showing in her debut and became a stakes winner last Saturday at Aqueduct. She's also gotten better as the races have gotten longer. That said, she beat a weak field in the Gazelle and if she is going to win the Oaks she's going to have to do it as a 30-1 shot.

9) AND TELL ME NO LIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate)

O-Peter Redekop B. C. Ltd. B-Lara Run LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales History: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 7-3-2-0, $472,800. Last Start: 2nd GII Santa Anita Oaks at Santa Anita Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

No better than the second best 3-year-old filly racing on the West Coast as she has finished second behind Faiza in both of her 3-year-old starts. In the Santa Anita Oaks, it wasn't even close as Faiza whipped her by 6 1/2 lengths. These 3-year-old fillies are not a particularly fast bunch and this one, despite her accomplishments, might be the slowest of the group. Her 78 in the Santa Anita Oaks was a career-best Beyer figure and she's only slightly faster than she was last year when she was running in the low to mid-seventies.

10) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg})

O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky). T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-3-0-1, $219,600. Last Start: 3rd in GIII Gazelle S. at Aqueduct Apr. 8. Kentucky Oaks Points: 80.

Had a chance to force her way up the list when taking on five others in the Gazelle. She came in undefeated for trainer Chad Brown, but had been racing in largely soft spots. Her Gazelle showing was ok, but just ok. She was third, beaten two lengths. Will have to do much better in the Oaks to be a contender. Wouldn't be the first time Brown got the very most out of a horse he trains, but he really has his work cut out for him with this filly.

The post The Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Lack of Points Have Big Names on Outside Looking In appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Wet Paint Steps Up

Throughout prep season for the GI Kentucky Oaks no filly seemed capable of putting in the type of performance that stamped them as the clear leader of the division. It has been a rather uninspiring three months. As for the Oaks itself, it kept looking like the race would be a crap shoot that just about anybody could win. But, thankfully, that changed last week. The win by Wet Paint (Blame) in the GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn was decisive and stamped her as the clear leader of the division. That could change this week, which will offer the last round of Oaks preps. But, at the very least, Wet Paint is a classy and consistent filly and will go into the Oaks riding a wave of momentum. She is a deserving No. 1.

We have a busy few days coming up. The GI Ashland S., the only Grade I race among the Kentucky Oaks preps, tops Friday's card at Keeneland. On Saturday, the GIII Gazelle S. will be run at Aqueduct and later that same day Santa Anita will serve up the GII Santa Anita Oaks. The Bob Baffert-trained Faiza (Girvin) will be favored at Santa Anita, but she was not nominated to the Kentucky Oaks.

1) WET PAINT (f, Blame–Sky Painter, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $689,000. Last Start: Won GIII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 170.
When Wet Paint finished second in an allowance race at Turfway Park on Dec. 14, her connections had little reason to believe that she might be the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks. She earned a 69 Beyer figure that day and her only win had come in a maiden race at Horseshoe Indianapolis. But she's been nothing short of fabulous since. She went on to sweep Oaklawn's preps for the Oaks, winning the Martha Washington, the GIII Honeybee S. and the Fantasy. She's flourishing at the right time and, if anything, is improving. In the Fantasy, she was last early, rushed past the leaders on the far turn and won with what appeared to be plenty left. She's owned by Godolphin, trained by Brad Cox and her pedigree says she'll run all day. What's not to like?
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

2) WONDER WHEEL (f, Into Mischief–Wonder Gal, by Tiz Wonderful) O-D. J. Stable. B-Three Chimneys Farm & Clearsky Farm (Ky). T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $275,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly & MGISW, 6-4-2-0, $1,570,725. Last Start: 2nd Suncoast S. Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 48.
It seems like forever since she last raced, which happened on Feb. 11 when she was second as the 1-2 favorite in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs. That has given Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse nearly two months to fine tune last year's 2-year-old filly champion and have her ready for her best effort. That wasn't the case in the Suncoast when she had the length of the stretch to get past longshot Dreaming of Snow (Jess's Dream) but could not do so. So what to expect in the Ashland? That's the big question surrounding her. If she delivers and shows the form she displayed last year she could still be the favorite in the Oaks. Anything less will mean she will really have her work cut out for her on May 5.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

3) BOTANICAL (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Daisy, by Blame)
O-LNJ Foxwoods & Clearsky Farms. B-Clearsky Farms & Godolphin (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $220,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 6-4-1-0, $374,410. Last Start: Won the Bourbonette S. at Turfway Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 70.

Botanical | Coady

An interesting horse who has won four straight, including a pair of dominant performances in stakes at Turfway on the synthetic track. The problem is that she's never run on dirt. Trainer Brad Cox understands that's an unknown, but is hoping that her upcoming works on the dirt at Churchill Downs will answer those questions. “She worked pretty well on the dirt last summer leading up to her debut,” Cox said. “I'll know more in a couple weeks. I think we'll get a pretty good line on if she's going to transfer over to the dirt based off her works here at Churchill.” Type of filly who could be first, could be last in the Oaks. If she doesn't handle the dirt she could have a bright career on the grass. Chris Landeros is her rider.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

4) SOUTHLAWN (f, Pioneerof the Nile–Mo d'Amour, by Uncle Mo) O-Robert Masterson. B-WinStar Farm (Ky). T-Norm Casse. Sales history: $290,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-3-0-0, $318,369. Last Start: Won the Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 100.
Has come out of nowhere to be a Kentucky Oaks threat. After finishing off the board last year in a pair of grass races, one at Keeneland, one at Churchill Downs, she turned into the best 3-year-old filly at the Fair Grounds. She won an allowance race there in February by eight lengths and then cruised to a 3 1/4-length win in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks. The wins came after Southlawn underwent a procedure to clear up a breathing issue. Is trained by Norm Casse, who might have to take on his father, Mark, in a battle of the Casse family in the Kentucky Oaks. “I've worked for dad for a long time, been around a lot of nice horses, we know what to do,” Casse said after the win in the Fair Grounds Oaks.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

5) PRETTY MISCHIEVOUS (f, Into Mischief–Pretty City Dancer, by Tapit) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Godolphin (Ky). T-Brendan P. Walsh. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-1, $501,310. Last Start: 2nd GII Fair Grounds Oaks at Fair Grounds Mar. 25. Kentucky Oaks Points: 103.
Along with Wet Paint, should give Godolphin a potent pair in the Oaks. After winning the Untapable S. and the Rachel Alexandra S., she looked like she could be as good as anyone in the division. Took a step back when beaten by Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks, but still ran well enough for her to be considered a threat in the Kentucky Oaks. That said, she may need to improve a bit. Has run three times at Churchill, winning a maiden race and an allowance before finishing third in the GII Golden Rod S.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

6) JULIA SHINING (f, Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Stonestreet Stables LLC. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-1, $204,075. Last Start: 3rd Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay Downs Feb. 11. Kentucky Oaks Points: 16.
It's not that she ran badly when third in the Suncoast, her only start this year. The Beyer of 81 was a career best and she was only beaten 1 ½ lengths. But she had no excuse and, like Wonder Wheel, couldn't get past Dreaming of Snow in the stretch. Now it all comes down to the Ashland, where she's the third choice in the morning line at 3-1. Does trainer Todd Pletcher have her ready for an improved effort, which is what it's going to take to win the Grade I stakes. There's a lot of upside with this filly, who is a full-sister to Eclipse Award winner Malathaat (Curlin), but she clearly needs to move forward off of her 3-year-old debut.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

7) AND TELL ME NOLIES (f, Arrogate–Be Fair, by Exchange Rate) O-Peter Redekop B.C., Ltd. B-Lara Run, LLC (Ky). T-Peter Miller. Sales history: $70,000 yrl '21 KEEJAN; $230,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-3-1-0, $392,800. Last Start: Second in GIII Santa Ysabel S. at Santa Anita Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 30.
After training at the San Luis Rey training center the Peter Miller-trained filly showed up on the work tab last Saturday at Santa Anita. She went five furlongs in 1:01.80. The winner last year of the GI Del Mar Debutante and the GII Chandelier S., she stubbed her toe when eighth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, finishing seven lengths behind Wonder Wheel. Dismissed at 7-1, she finished second behind Faiza in her 3-year-old debut in the GIII Santa Ysabel S. Is not fast. The 78 she got in the Santa Ysabel is her best career Beyer number. Will try to give sire Arrogate his second straight Oaks winner. He is the sire of 2022 winner Secret Oath.
Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, Apr. 8

8) PUNCHBOWL (f, Uncle Mo-Devilish Lady, by Sweetsouthernsaint) O-Gary and Mary West. B-Gary and Mary West Stables Inc. (Ky). T-Brad H. Cox. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $150,528. Last Start: Won an allowance optional claimer at Oaklawn Mar. 5. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0.
An Ashland starter, she's obviously very talented as she was an impressive winner of a March 5 allowance race at Oaklawn Park in her second career start. That came just three weeks after she broke her maiden in her career debut on Feb. 11. Now, trainer Brad Cox is throwing her into the deep end in a Grade I race that features last year's champion 2-year-old filly. “Punchbowl is a very talented filly but we are throwing a lot at her,” Cox admitted. “We ran her back quick off of her breaking her maiden. Hopefully, she'll be a Grade I winner after Friday.” The Ashland is a huge test for her. If she were to win it that would make her one of the favorites in the Oaks, maybe even the favorite. But is she ready for such a tough challenge? Is the 2-1 second choice in the Ashland morning line.
Next Start: GI Ashland S., Kee, Apr. 7

9) AFFIRMATIVE LADY (f, Arrogate–Stiffed, by Stephen Got Even) O-AMO Racing USA. B-Alastar Thoroughbred Co., LLC (Ky). T-H. G. Motion. Sales history: $210,000 yrl '21 KEESEP; $400,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-2-1-2, $270,568. Last Start: Won GII Gulfstream Park Oaks Apr. 1. Kentucky Oaks Points: 110.

Affirmative Lady | Ryan Thompson

Also by Arrogate, she's the lone horse to jump into the Top 10 this week, which she did off of her win in the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. It was the first graded stakes win in the U.S. for AMO Racing, which has won a number of group races in Europe. She didn't break her maiden until her start prior to the Oaks, but did run second last year in the GII Demoiselle S., where she finished just a neck behind Julia Shining. It looks like she's headed in the right direction, but she didn't face all that much in the way of competition in the Gulfstream race.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 5

10) SHIDABHUTI (f, Practical Joke–A. P. Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Peter Brant. B-Gabriel Duignan & Gerry Dilger (Ky).
T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $77,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $310,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $189,600. Last Start: Won Busher S. at Aqueduct Mar. 4. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50.
She goes next in Saturday's Gazelle S. at Aqueduct, where the main competition is expected to include her stablemate Occult (Into Mischief). The good news is that she is undefeated in three career starts. The bad news is that she has raced at Monmouth and then made two starts during the winter run at Aqueduct. Even if she wins Saturday, the story won't change much. Everyone will be asking, who did she beat? Chad Brown does have a history of running some of his better horses in New York during the winter, which he did with his two GI Preakness winners, Early Voting (Gun Runner) and Cloud Computing (Maclean's Music).
Next Start: GIII Gazelle S., Aqu, Apr. 8

The post Kentucky Oaks Top 10: Wet Paint Steps Up appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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