Kentucky Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

Some Derby Day Fact ‘N Figs

You've all done the donkey work. Maybe you've resigned yourself to the skinny prices about Zandon (Upstart) and Epicenter (Not This Time) and there's a good chance you've debated–internally or otherwise–whether Mike Battaglia got it right from the perspective of the morning line. Or, you argue, 'It's a 20-horse field, there isn't a snowball's chance in hell I am betting one of the favorites when there is value to be found elsewhere.'

Surely, you reason, there isn't much that separates the market leaders from horses like 'TDN Rising Star' Messier (Empire Maker), whose sire couldn't quite get to Funny Cide (Distorted Humor) here some 19 years ago. You contend that, despite his obvious lack of experience, Taiba (Gun Runner)–named a 'TDN Rising Star' as recently as Mar. 5–has as much or more or even much more talent than the 19 fellow sophomores that will gather at the top of the Churchill stretch just before 7 p.m. Eastern time Saturday.

You have likely marveled at the boundless energy displayed by Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}), just the second Japanese-bred horse to make a Derby appearance, and you have struggled trying to figure out how he fits into your betting strategy. Many will deem him a must-use for exotics, while others will take a stand based on a starting price that figures to be pretty short, a whole lot less than his 20-1 morning line in any case.

There is also the Florida form to be considered, represented by GI Curlin Florida Derby hero White Abarrio (Race Day) and Simplification (Not This Time), the second of two runners in the race for his boom sire and the idea of many of a very live longshot.

T.D. Thornton has done a yeoman's job over the last six months laying out his Derby pecking order–his final assessment can be reviewed here–and we strongly encourage you to use the TDN's Kentucky Derby Special Edition, with a great Steve Sherack cover story on Steve Asmussen's Derby quest, as a resource for Saturday's big race. But to lighten things up just a bit, here is a bit of Derby Day whimsy.

Letter (Im)perfect…

Zandon is joined in Saturday's field by fellow 'Z' horse 'TDN Rising Star' Zozos (Munnings), but they'll have to 'overcome' history, as no 'Z' horse since Zev in 1923 has been draped with the roses. Believe it or not, this isn't the first time a Derby has had more than one 'Z' horse, as Z Fortune and Z Humor were 10th and 14th, respectively, behind Big Brown in 2008. And if you're backing Simplification, 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy (Runhappy) or even Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front), take heart. Horses that begin with the 20th letter of the alphabet have won the Derby on 19 occasions, most recently with double 'S' Super Saver back in 2010.

Minnesota Front and Center on Derby Day…

The popularity of racing in Minnesota has continued to grow over the past several years, owing in large part to some forward-thinking execs at Canterbury Park who have increasingly focused on the customer experience. Those tuning into Saturday's broadcast from the 'Land of 10,000 Lakes' will have plenty of rooting interest, as Zozos is owned and bred by Minnesota's own Barry and Joni Butzow, while native son Jeff Drown campaigns morning-line pick Zandon. And Minnesotan Bob Lothenbach will be watching when Bell's the One (Majesticperfection) runs for the third straight season in the GI Derby City Distaff. She defeated 2019 GI Kentucky Oaks heroine Serengeti Empress (Alternation) in a thriller in the COVID-delayed renewal in September 2020.

O Canada…

Two-time graded winner and GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby runner-up Messier would become the third Kentucky Derby winner bred north of the border were he to get home first Saturday afternoon. The $470,000 Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearling Showcase grad was bred by Sam-Son Farm in Ontario, also the birthplace of Sunny's Halo, who took down the 1983 Derby when total purse money was, wait for it, a whopping $250,000. E. P. Taylor's Northern Dancer is the third of the trio, having broken ground for Canada in 1964. Only one Canadian-bred has placed in the race since–eventual Triple Crown spoiler Victory Gallop was second in 1998.

Will It Be A Day for the Grays?…

The Derby has drawn a trio of gray colts for the third time in four years, with Florida Derby runner-up Charge It (Tapit) and Barber Road (Race Day) joining White Abarrio. Since 1930, grays in the Derby have a record of 8-3-10 from 112 starters. There were three gray winners between 1997 and 2005 (Silver Charm, Monarchos and Giacomo).

Five Thrives in Derby…

Since the use of the starting gate for the Derby began back in 1930, the post with the highest strike rate has been gate five (smile happy, Smile Happy), with 10 winners from 92 starters (10.9%). The second most prolific winning barrier is the 10 hole, with nine winners from 85 runners (10.6%). As has been widely noted, post position 17 has yet to toss up a Derby winner (apologies to any Classic Causeway fans out there) and just three horses to have started from there have run in the first three. Next worst is gate six, with two winners.

A Reason to Root for Rich Strike…

The unfortunate 11th-hour defection of the Wayne Lukas-trained Ethereal Road (Quality Road) means that Rich Strike (Keen Ice) draws into the Derby in gate 20. We don't need to point out that the handsome chestnut is hopelessly overmatched on paper, but it is not hard to be happy for trainer Eric Reed. About a week before Christmas in 2016, Reed and his wife Kay suffered an unspeakable loss when their Mercury Training Center went up in flames, with a reported 23 horses–mostly yearlings–perishing. But he has persevered–his runners won 80 races in 2021, his best result since 2014–and it does the heart good to see him on a stage such as this one.

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Ethereal Road Out, Rich Strike In

The feel-good story of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas adding another GI Kentucky Derby win to his repertoire this year is not to be, as his GII Rebel S. runner-up Ethereal Road (Quality Road) has been scratched from Saturday's race, as first reported by Daily Racing Form's Marty McGee. The defection of Ethereal Road at scratch time for the Derby permitted also-eligible Rich Strike (Keen Ice), most recently third in the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. at Turfway, into the field. Bred in Kentucky by Calumet Farm, Rich Strike is owned by Richard Dawson's RED TR-Racing, LLC and is trained by Eric Reed. Sonny Leon has been tabbed to ride.

GI Breeders' Futurity winner Rattle N Roll (Connect) was behind Rich Strike on the also-eligible list and was also scratched.

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Asmussen Front and ‘Center’ with Potential Derby Favorite

LOUISVILLE, KY – As the all-time leading trainer at Churchill Downs, no one has won more races beneath the Twin Spires than Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen. Just not on the first Saturday in May.

Heading into GI Kentucky Derby 148 with 7-2 morning-line second choice Epicenter (Not This Time), as expected, Asmussen's well-documented 23-0-2-2 record in the 'Run for the Roses' has been a major topic of discussion.

“I don't know if it's healthy to want anything that much,” Asmussen said. “I grew up in horseracing. We've been unbelievably blessed with some of the greatest horses of all time, yet the Derby has eluded us. Going into this year, right now, I don't want to trade places with anybody. I love our chances.”

This may arguably be Asmussen's best shot so far.

Ninth at 43-1 with his first Kentucky Derby starter Fifty Stars in 2001, the 56-year-old has never saddled the favorite. Believe it or not, neither future superstar Curlin or Gun Runner was the public's choice in the Derby and only three of his starters have gone off at single digits.

Taking a look back, Asmussen's confidence was at its highest approaching the 2007 renewal, he said.

“I never in my wildest dreams thought Curlin could lose,” Asmussen said. “I did not. You could not get any more confident than that horse made you feel when you ran him. The walk back after he got beat was… Whew. Long. Like going across the Sahara Desert.”

Unraced at two, making just his fourth lifetime start and backed as the narrowest of second choices at 5-1 off a trio of jaw-dropping victories, the mighty Curlin had to settle for a well-beaten third behind slightly favored Street Sense after some early trouble passing the crowd of 156,635 for the first time.

“Two weeks later, he proved it [by winning the GI Preakness S.],” Asmussen said of the two-time Horse of the Year and perennial leading sire. “Sometimes, it just isn't meant to be. He proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that he was good enough. But it didn't happen.”

Carrying the same maroon-and-white silks of Winchell Thoroughbreds as Epicenter, the brilliant Gun Runner filled the third slot at 10-1 behind Nyquist after racing on a hot pace in the 2016 Kentucky Derby. The chestnut, of course, brought his game to an elite level as an older horse, led by wins in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and GI Pegasus World Cup Invitational S. The 2017 Horse of the Year has excelled in his next career as well, setting a new record for progeny earnings as a first-crop sire last year.

“For him going into the breeding shed, and the success he's continuing, it's unbelievable to be a part of that,” Asmussen said.

Nehro and Lookin At Lee provided Asmussen with his two best placings in the Kentucky Derby so far, finishing second in 2011 and 2017, respectively.

Nehro, looking every bit a winner while looming boldly on the pacesetting Shackleford turning for home at a well-backed 8-1, couldn't withstand a devastating stretch run from Animal Kingdom. The rail-drawn Lookin At Lee enjoyed a perfect, ground-saving trip from far back and outran his 33-1 odds behind Always Dreaming.

“The visuals of those moments were goosebump exciting,” Asmussen said.

Derby also-rans like GI Belmont S. winner Creator (13th in 2016), GI Jockey Club Gold Cup S. winner Max Player (fifth in 2020) and the very popular, ill-fated GI Preakness S. and GI Runhappy Travers S. runner-up Midnight Bourbon (promoted to fifth via disqualification in 2021) enjoyed their share of top-level success afterward.

Albeit while racing for different connections, Asmussen Derby alumni also includes: GI Forego S. winner Pyro (eighth at 5-1 in 2008) and GI Santa Anita H. winner Combatant (18th in 2018), respectively.

“That's extremely important,” Asmussen said of that aforementioned group's subsequent accomplishments. “Extremely proud of that.”

A Deserving Choice…

Regardless of Mike Battaglia's much-discussed morning-line or where Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale's expected $3 to $4 million wager lands, Epicenter is every bit worthy of favoritism.

In key possession of a natural, high-cruising speed–more important than ever in the points system era as detailed in this space ahead of the 2018 Derby–Epicenter's resume is topped by a gate-to-wire success in a very live renewal of the GII Risen Star S. and a visually impressive, stalk-and-pounce victory with a career-best 102 Beyer Speed Figure in the GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby.

Slight Kentucky Derby morning-line favorite and the very talented GI Toyota Blue Grass S. winner Zandon (Upstart) was back in third while making his sophomore debut in the Risen Star following an eventful journey.

A maiden winner at Churchill Downs at two, Epicenter has gradually been stretched in distance from seven furlongs on debut last September all the way to 1 3/16 miles in his final Derby prep in late March. His speed figures have improved with each and every one of his six career starts as well.

Jockey Joel Rosario, aboard 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb, has the call.

“I love where he's at–mentally and physically–and how he's getting over the racetrack,” Asmussen said. “He's had a lovely progression with a gradual stretch out. He's got nice gate speed and plenty of pace. In the Louisiana Derby, he showed that he can be more tractable and still have that burst going 1 3/16 miles. We're very fortunate to be associated with him. We have the one we want for running in the 2022 Derby.”

Bred in Kentucky by Westwind Farms, Epicenter brought $260,000 from the Winchell family on day six of the 2020 Keeneland September Yearling sale. Hailing from the second crop of leading young sire Not This Time, Epicenter is out of the stakes-winning and graded-stakes placed Candy Ride (Arg) mare Silent Candy.

It promises to be a huge weekend for Asmussen and owner Ron Winchell at Churchill Downs. North America's all-time winningest trainer will also be shooting for his third GI Kentucky Oaks win for the Winchells with unbeaten champion Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) on Friday.

“There's a lot of focus on the 0-for-23 and my pursuit of the Derby, but I've heard Ron [Winchell] in interviews recalling conversations that he had with his father [the late Verne Winchell] about his own pursuit of winning the Derby,” Asmussen said. “It's very meaningful. The association between the Winchells and Asmussens was started long before me and Ron.”

Asmussen concluded with a laugh, “We got to listen to conversations, but make no decisions.”

At 6:57 p.m. Saturday, Asmussen and Winchell will be more than happy to let Epicenter do all the talking.

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Mike Repole Talks Derby, Oaks, Uncle Mo, Kobe Bryant On Writers’ Room

In arguably the most entertaining interview of the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland's 130-plus episode history, billionaire and high-profile owner/breeder Mike Repole sat down with Joe Bianca and Jon Green Tuesday as the Green Group Guest of the Week for a lively discussion that covered Repole's GI Kentucky Derby and GI Kentucky Oaks chances this weekend, his shared legacy with super-stallion Uncle Mo, his eight-figure donation to a nonprofit that honors his late friend Kobe Bryant and much more.

Looking for his first Derby win Saturday with Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), who he bought into last Friday, Repole's weekend could start with a bang Friday as his Nest (Curlin), owned in partnership with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Michael House, was given a 5-2 morning-line nod in one of the strongest Oaks fields in recent memory.

“For a Curlin to be so precocious, win the Demoiselle and come back and win two stakes this year in incredible fashion, especially in the Ashland; we all know Curlins want to be 4-year-olds, so when they're this talented at three, you've got to feel really, really good,” Repole said. “And every week that goes by, she gets older and looks better. I'm really, really excited by her, and we all know the distance is not going to be an issue. In fact, if they can move this race to a mile and a half, we'll sign up for that too.”

Asked if that means, with a win Friday, Nest could be pointed for a run against males in the GI Belmont S., Repole said, “If you're interviewing me at the end of the race and I have a smile on my face, there's a chance. But if you're not interviewing me at the end and I'm just walking to my car, then I might have a different answer. So let's just leave it at that.”

A Derby win for Repole with Mo Donegal would be sweet for a number of reasons, not the least of which is the colt's sire, who launched Repole into racing stardom on the racetrack and has since proven himself as one of the top sires at the world at Coolmore's Ashford Stud.

“It's everything,” Repole said about Uncle Mo's impact on his racing life. “Obviously I'm playing the game at a very, very high level now and [thanks to] Uncle Mo, I went from claimers you used to lose money on, to Grade I horses you lose money on, so the consistent part is you're losing money. But when he won, he gave me that taste of, 'This is why I'm in the game.' I've said before I'm probably never going to own a horse more talented or brilliant than Uncle Mo. I've had Grade I wins, I won a Classic, I won a Travers, but as far as pure brilliance, only Uncle Mo is Uncle Mo. I remember going into the paddock for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, seeing all these horses then panning over to Uncle Mo and you say, 'Who put the 3-year-old in to play with the 2-year-olds?' It was almost like a high school kid playing against third-graders. I was so nervous for like three weeks, then once I went in the paddock, I started to get nervous for the other horses. It was amazing. He was just ahead of his time. People ask if he could've gotten a mile and a quarter. He could've gotten a mile and a half. He would've been American Pharoah before American Pharoah. And you know what? He proved it in the stallion barn.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders' Association, XBTV, West Point Thoroughbreds and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers talked about what they're watching for on a monster Oaks/Derby weekend and what the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act's new drug enforcement partnership could mean for racing. Click here to watch the show; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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