Kentucky Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

Locked Individual Favorite in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool

Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager is set for its three-day run Tuesday-Thursday and features 40 betting interests, including recent Grade I winners Locked (Gun Runner) and Timberlake (Into Mischief). Wagering will begin Tuesday at noon and close Thursday at 6 p.m. ET in advance of the Breeders' Cup World Championships' Future Starts Friday.

The 15-1 individual favorite is Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners and Walmac Farm's GI Breeders' Futurity winner Locked. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby winner Todd Pletcher, Locked is among the top interests in Friday's GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita.

Here is the complete field with morning line odds: #1 Agate Road (Quality Road) (99-1); #2 Agoo (Munnings) (99-1); #3 Air of Defiance (Quality Road) (60-1); #4 Balta (Munnings) (99-1); #5 Be You (Curlin) (99-1); #6 Bentornato (Valiant Minister) (99-1); #7 Bergen (Liam's Map) (99-1); #8 Billal (Street Sense) (99-1); #9 Booth (Mitole) (60-1); #10 Catching Freedom (Constitution) (99-1); #11 Dancing Groom (Vino Rosso) (99-1); #12 Domestic Product (Practical Joke) (99-1); #13 Dornoch (Good Magic) (60-1); #14 Drum Roll Please (Hard Spun) (99-1); #15 Fierceness (City of Light) ( (99-1); #16 General Partner (Speightstown) (80-1); #17 Generous Tipper (Street Sense) (80-1); #18 Glengarry (Maximus Mischief) (99-1); #19 Informed Patriot (Hard Spun) (99-1); #20 Liberal Arts (Arrogate) (60-1); #21 Lightline (City of Light) (99-1); #22 Locked (15-1); #23 Moonlight (Audible) (80-1); #24 Nash (Medaglia d'Oro) (99-1); #25 Normandy Hero (Omaha Beach) (99-1); #26 Otto The Conqueror (Street Sense) (99-1); #27 Noted (Cairo Prince) (99-1); #28 Nutella Fella (Runhappy) (80-1); #29 Private Desire (Constitution) (50-1); #30 Raging Torrent (Maximus Mischief) (99-1); #31 Risk It (Gun Runner) (99-1); #32 Rocketeer (Curlin) (99-1); #33 Seize the Grey (Arrogate) (99-1); #34 Stretch Ride (Street Sense) (50-1); #35 Stronghold (Ghostzapper) (99-1); #36 The Wine Steward (Vino Rosso) (30-1); #37 Timberlake (20-1); #38 West Saratoga (Exaggerator) (80-1); #39 “All Fillies from the 2021 Foal Crop” (80-1); “All Other Colts and Geldings from the 2021 Foal Crop” (3-5).

There are six Future Wager pools scheduled in advance of the 2024 Kentucky Derby: Oct. 31-Nov. 2 (Pool 1); Nov. 23-26 (Pool 2); Jan. 19-21 (Pool 3); Feb. 16-18 (Pool 4); March 15-17 (Pool 5); April 4-6 (Pool 6).

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Is The Derby Purse Fair? More Opinion from Readers

In the Sept. 30 edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News, we ran an interview with John Sikura (Sikura: No Simple Solutions for a Fractured Sport, TDN, Sept. 27) in which he raised questions about the funding mechanism and purse of the Kentucky Derby. In Tuesday's TDN, industry insiders weighed in with their own commentary. Today, we publish additional opinions on the subject.

Scott Heider, owner

It made me smile recently when I saw my friend John Sikura shared his opinions in the TDN. Similar to the ongoing discussions we have on the equine industry (and also plenty of non-industry topics), John has gained some real wisdom over the last few decades. But but he's always open to new ideas and he's far from stuck in his ways, which is why he's succeeded and will continue to do so. John's opinions the other day contained some great nuggets including his view on Churchill Downs and The Derby. I will submit that money does not by itself fix problems and I know John very much agrees with this, too. It doesn't work this way in business (perhaps short term occasionally), and it certainly doesn't work this way in philanthropic endeavors. We'd have largely eradicated poverty and poor school systems in this country by now if it did. What it does take in the public and private sectors is leadership. Leadership that has vision and is willing to do whatever it takes to provide its clients with an experience and/or product that they want more of, not less. Leadership that inspires others, both within a company and within an industry, to raise their games and be better. It's largely what this country is built on. I think most of us either live this or at least fully understand and appreciate it.

Churchill Downs is a publicly traded company, and that, in and of itself, is not an issue. Churchill Downs is a very important player in the industry. They are stewards of two of the most important race days our sport offers each year. Two incredibly visible worldwide race days that can and absolutely should represent everything that makes this amazing sport what it is today. In some ways, they do shine a proper light on our sport for these 48 hours and should be commended for the constant reinvestment that takes place. In other ways, they fail pretty spectacularly for all the reasons we know all too well.

Churchill Downs, a storied brand in our industry and a high visibility player that should be setting the proper tone for the sport itself, is not playing long ball. Far from it, in my opinion. That is the real issue. Everything else, from purses to engagement with industry participants to fan experiences, follows. Can it change and what would it take to embrace a larger role as a high-profile industry leader? That's unclear, but I do know we must have Churchill Downs in this role. Can you imagine for a moment if Augusta National adopted a similar mentality to Churchill for its presentation of The Masters? I can't, either.

Rick Dawson, Owner, Rich Strike

In the weeks leading up to Kentucky Derby #148 in 2022, and even after Rich Strike was fortunate enough to make it into the race at the last minute, the value of the purse never entered my mind. Not once.

Winning the most prestigious horse race in the world, in my opinion, was more gratifying than any purse amount.

As for Rich Strike, he's returning to full training with Bill Mott in the next couple of weeks. GO RICHIE!

Larry Kerr, Fan and Gambler, Miami, Florida

Why would anyone be surprised that Churchill Downs Inc.(CDI) has not raised the Kentucky Derby purse in years, that said purse is woefully inadequate and that CDI does not seem to really care, as they know they will get a full starting gate year after year?

After all, this is the same corporate entity that does not even allow the Daily Racing Form to be sold under the Twin Spires.

CDI could care less about what is good for the game. They only care about themselves and their shareholders.

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Steve Cauthen, BC Winner Pebbles To Be Inducted Into British Hall of Fame

American jockey Steve Cauthen and the outstanding turf mare Pebbles (GB) (Sharpen Up {GB}) will be inducted into the QIPCO British Champions Series Hall of Fame, the official Hall of Fame for Flat racing in Britain. The newest inductees will be recognized on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot on Oct. 21, with Cauthen making a rare trip over from the US.

Cauthen becomes just the fifth rider to be inducted into the Hall of Fame, while Pebbles becomes the first of her gender to be inducted alongside the likes of Frankel (GB) and his legendary late sire Galileo (Ire). Cauthen and Pebbles teamed to win the 1985 Eclipse S. at Sandown.

Now 63, Cauthen is the only jockey in history to have ridden the winners of both the Derby and Kentucky Derby and is the youngest to have ever won the US Triple Crown aboard Affirmed in 1978. He is the only jockey to appear on the cover of TIME magazine, which he did alongside the late boxer Muhammad Ali. Cauthen was Britain's champion jockey on three occasions and rode the winners of 10 English Classics, all but one for trainer Sir Henry Cecil, including Derby winners Slip Anchor and Reference Point.

“I'm grateful to have had so many brilliant opportunities on both sides of the pond and to still be recognised for my achievements is really quite special to me.

“Having been inducted into America's Hall of Fame some years back, it's an honour to now celebrate my induction into Great Britain's Hall of Fame, and I'm looking forward to marking this moment with family and friends on QIPCO British Champions Day at Ascot later this month.”

Trained by Clive Brittain, Pebbles overcame quirkiness and a variety of setbacks and became the first British-conditioned winner of a Breeders' Cup race when successful in the 1985 Turf at Aqueduct. She had previous won the G1 1000 Guineas and the G1 Champion S. at Newmarket prior to her American conquest.

Said Brittain, “I still think about her today and can see her fresh in my mind, particularly with her boyfriend, Come On The Blues. Theirs was a great love story and he accompanied her wherever she went–even travelling out to America with her for the Breeders' Cup Turf. That day was the only time that I've been racing and felt nervous, but I just did the same as we'd have done at home and it all worked out.”

Speaking on behalf of Godolphin, the racing operation owned by His Highness Sheikh Mohammed, Pebbles's owner, managing director Hugh Anderson added, “Pebbles was a uniquely talented and very tough racehorse with an outstanding race record. She truly was one of the best racehorses of the 1980s and a flagbearer for His Highness Sheikh Mohammed's racing operation at the time. She is a very deserving inductee to the Hall of Fame and His Highness is delighted to see her achievements recognised in this way.”

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Is The Derby Purse Fair? Opinion From The Industry

In the Sept. 30 edition of the Thoroughbred Daily News, we ran an interview with John Sikura in which he raised questions about the funding mechanism and purse of the Kentucky Derby.

In the article, Sikura says:

“(The Kentucky Derby is) “The single event that drives the commerce of the industry. The point of entry to virtually everybody that owns a horse: 'I want to win the Kentucky Derby.' If you're fortunate enough to do so, there should be a financial reward that recognizes that–not just pride in achievement. A purse of $3 million, with $1 million dollars in fees and nominations, is an embarrassment to the sport. A huge windfall is given to a corporate entity, which they're entitled to. Corporately, they've been brilliant stewards of their brand and stock value. But they have to recognize that they're in a sport that has many participants–and that those should be rewarded.”

We asked several leading industry figures how they felt about what Sikura said, and also asked Churchill Downs, who had not responded by the time of publication of this article.

(To submit a reply of your own for consideration for publication, email suefinley@thetdn.com.)

Mike Repole, owner

“I disagree with John Sikura that it's embarrassing that the Kentucky Derby purse is $3 million. It's not embarrassing-it's beyond embarrassing. But not only do we put up a third of the purse with fees, but the way the owners get treated is an embarrassment. We buy our own tickets, and if you want more than 10-15 people, you have to buy your own seats. I have to run second in the Kentucky Derby just to break even. I'm 0-for-8 without a first or second, so every time I'm in it, I end up losing money. I doubt when a team makes the Super Bowl they have to worry so much about accommodations for their friends and family. So it's beyond embarrassing between the purse, and what owners pay to try to share the experience with friends and family. What happens when a syndicate makes it into the race with 30 owners? I think if it's going to be as prestigious as it is, the purse should be $10 million. The Saudi Cup is $20 million, the Dubai World Cup is $10 million, and the Breeders' Cup Classic is $6 million. I also disagree that they should allow 20 horses in the race. It should be 14. We're all concerned about horse safety. Is 20 horses in one gate safe? I don't think it is. This year, I have been blessed by having so much success, and it should be the most fun I've had in racing, but the frustration is starting to overcome the enjoyment. And the more I reflect, the more I'm starting to really realize that the blame of this lies with the owners and the trainers. As long as we keep letting tracks make the rules, and HISA with no real horse racing experience make the rules, and be ruled by the ineffective associations that represent owners, trainers, and jockeys in the sport without really having done them justice, the more we have to look ourselves in the mirror. If they lowered the purse to $500,000, they'd still get 20 horses, and that's on us. There's so much great that can happen in this game, but we're at a crossroads. This is self-inflicted. And we have let this go on for too long.”

Elliott Walden, President & CEO, WinStar Farm

“I think the Kentucky Derby purse should be $10,000,000 and the Oaks should be $5,000,000. The Derby has been raised twice in the last 20 years (300%). The Churchill Downs stock price is up over 1900% in the same time frame. I think our real problem is we are too busy fighting amongst ourselves with two horsemen's groups (the HPBA and the KTA), and not negotiating effectively with Churchill Downs as horsemen. It is the way the system has been set up. If I were CEO of Churchill, I would like it that way. Churchill Downs reported they had increased revenues of over $20.0M on last year's Kentucky Derby weekend alone. I am sure their argument would be that we can split up the purses any way we see fit. I think this is more about having an equitable split on all revenues for the weekend and not just handle.”

Eric Gustavson, Owner, Spendthrift Farm

I read John's article. Of course he's right. I remember many years ago when I found out how much it cost to nominate your horse to the Kentucky Derby, should you be among the few to make to the starting gate of that illustrious race. You might think that the nomination would be covered for the lucky 20. But no. I was shocked as I did the math and realized the disproportionate percentage the nominations made up for the purse of arguably the world's most famous horse race, let alone our country's. A Derby purse increase is decades overdue.

Anyone who has ever tried to take a group to Churchill on Derby Day knows the king's ransom it takes just to get seats. Add on the seat licenses, the handle and just that one day alone is quite a haul for Churchill. And good on them! They deserve to enjoy the fruits of their labor, and the blessings that come with owning the premier day in our sport. But, as John stated, they could bump the Derby purse to $5 million tomorrow without batting an eye. That would put it on par with the Breeders' Cup Classic, which should be a minimum. But if you're Churchill, don't you want to be the class of the sport that offers American racing's most stout purse?

The powers that be at Churchill Downs should step up and reward the Derby runners commensurately with their achievement.

Kenny McPeek, trainer

There's no question that a race of that caliber, the purse should be larger. Worldwide, it don't think it ranks in the top 25 purses in the world. It's not in the top 25. For me, it's always been a bit of a head scratcher.

Tom Ryan, SF Bloodstock

The business behind the Kentucky Derby:

$3 million purse
15 million viewers
150,000 attendees
93% hotel occupancy
$189 million in wagers in 2023
$400 million economic impact

The glaring issue here is the winning owner of the 2023 KY Derby takes home $1.5m after jockey and trainer take 10%.

Based on the current $3m purse, CDI doesn't care to preserve the sanctity of The Kentucky Derby by bringing it into line with the rest of the world. We should have a $10m purse structure with plans to increase incrementally as we evolve.

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