The Haiku Handicapper Presented By BC2A Equine Sports Performance: 2020 Kentucky Derby

Time to analyze the 2020 Kentucky Derby field, in post position order, in the form of Haiku; a Japanese poem of 17 syllables, in three lines of five, seven, and five.

To read previous editions of The Haiku Handicapper, click here.

#2 – Max Player
Can't knock his hustle
Don't love the late-game barn change
Should gain some ground late

#3 – Enforceable
Looked good at Fair Grounds
But fell off the map quickly
Blue-blood would surprise

#4 – Storm the Court
How many horses
Finish third at Thistledown
Then win the Derby?

#5 – Major Fed
A fine Grade 3-type
Punching against heavyweights
Tricky assignment

#7 – Money Moves
One start in six months
An optional claimer loss
This guy's pocket change

#8 – South Bend
Which will be longer:
Touchdown Jesus's wingspan
Or lengths off winner?

#9 – Mr. Big News
First-class pedigree
Exit-row coach race record
Minor check at best

#10 – Thousand Words
His ship's been righted
Knocking around four-horse fields
What's his true level?

#11 – Necker Island
A wonderful claim
Who's lost to a lot of these
He'd be an upset

#12 – Sole Volante
Churchill plays turfy
Which might be his best surface
A player, if he's right

#13 – Attachment Rate
Has some wins in him
Don't reckon this'll be one
He'll grow up nicely

#14 – Winning Impression
A pair of sevenths
Never held back Dallas Stewart
From trying longshots

#15 – Ny Traffic
Loves to run second
Pack animal tendencies
Wait for a mile race

#16 – Honor A. P.
Mike Smith had options
This one got the final rose
Serious win threat

#17 – Tiz the Law
All that's left to do
Is avenge his Churchill loss
And he's a man now

#18 – Authentic
Nail-biting Haskell
Begs the question if he peaked
For the May Derby

Prediction
Long-awaited bout
“Law” staves off Honor A. P.
Twelve and two follow

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Hoping for a Horse to Lighten Our Darkness

Main street? It’s a two-way street. And for the one horse race that truly engages the American nation, that is literally a mixed blessing. A blessing that mixes our own enchanted way of life, culpably introspective as it can be, with the passing traffic of the wider world.

Right now, between pandemic and protests, there is a lot of turmoil out there. Nobody should be surprised, then, if society’s discords have been filtering through the backstretch gate in Derby week: whether through the annual migration of mainstream media, or protestors seeking their attention outside the track, or indeed the reaction of horsemen to these intrusions.

Barclay Tagg is an octogenarian horseman coping with the stress of handling the final preparations of one of the hottest favourites in Derby history. And his instincts, as a rule, would sooner tend to taciturnity even on his own territory-where his exceptional expertise is eloquently measured, given his limited resources through a long career, by the mere possibility of a second Derby.

Many horsemen were doubtless vexed that one of their number, while expressing anxieties he might legitimately feel over security, should have meandered into the apparent conflation of peaceful protests and riots, and rightly so. But when did anyone, least of all the man himself, nominate Tagg as unusually eligible to judge or solve the grievous divisions of a nation?

When a good horse walks into your barn, he doesn’t tend to be carrying a public relations manual. To amplify Tagg’s views is unfair, because it treats him, politically, as something other than a random demographic snapshot; and, in implying that he represents a whole sport, it’s unfair on horseracing, too.

Wherever you happen to find yourself on the political spectrum, I hope you have a warmly affectionate relationship with someone-an obdurately conservative grandparent, say, or an aggressively radical niece or nephew-that you would nonetheless prefer not to be chosen as spokesman for your friends and family.

Certainly Churchill’s statement on Thursday could hardly have engaged more persuasively with the strife of its surrounding precincts, promising self-examination and self-improvement. As an Englishman, albeit one who feels so at home among them, I would not presume to lecture Americans on what may or may not be wrong with their country. I feel distressed by their divisions; and I do feel eligible to judge failures of leadership against rational and humane standards of universal application. But there are nuances of all this chaos that will necessarily be lost on me.

Even Kentuckians, after all, seem to have tangled the original threads of “My Old Kentucky Home”. There seem to be as many misapprehensions as misgivings about an anthem composed as a rebuke to slavery and a lament over its sorrows, according to this week’s Smithsonian Magazine Article, “The Complicated Legacy of My Old Kentucky Home.”

Anyhow, people in houses as lavishly glazed as England today should not throw stones. What I do know is that the 2020 Kentucky Derby visits onto our industry’s doorstep an unhappily authentic sample of the discontent of these times. Never mind the politics: those echoing stands will serve as a baleful reminder of our desperate need, collectively, for some redemptive exhibition of the nobility and inspiration we discover in the Thoroughbred.

Actually, for all the credit we owe those who have worked so hard even to get a show like this safely on the road, some words of reproof must also be heard in the eerie silence that will, unavoidably, complicate the emotions of those who achieve a career pinnacle with the 146th Derby winner.

Because the September Derby was a transparent and calculated gamble, and it has backfired. Back in the spring, Churchill plainly hoped to have those turnstiles rotating by now. Their statements at the time had little of the honesty and dignity of the one released on Thursday. Instead oily verbiage seemed to ooze off the page to coalesce on the floor in giant bald letters, spelling two words that had not appeared anywhere in the text: GATE MONEY.

Their unilateral decision forced other tracks into terribly awkward contortions. As a result, whatever he does in his “Classics”, Tiz The Law (Constitution) can never match all those who, as less-mature 3-year-olds, completed a five-week Triple Crown over 12 furlongs. As a first test of our ability to see out the crisis by working together, in the long-term interests of the whole sport, it was a pretty dispiriting start. For the integrity of the record, the venue should have been changed before the date. In the war, remember, the Epsom Derby was staged at Newmarket.

In the meantime, of course, horses like Charlatan (Speightstown) and Nadal (Blame) have been denied the opportunity that would have beckoned in May. But that’s sheer dice: whatever the date, some top sophomores are going to run out of luck at the wrong moment. Art Collector (Bernardini) jumped onto the September trail only to derail, heartbreakingly, at the 11th hour.

To that extent, Tiz The Law would deserve all possible exoneration if bearing the weight of an asterisk in the Derby annals. He has been the one constant of the crop. He was ready, willing and able in May; and here he is in September, still setting the standard. Tagg has done a masterly job already, the horse’s flame burning ever brighter even though ignited as early as February 1 in the GIII Holy Bull S.

Even so, I haven’t by any means given up on Honor A.P. (Honor Code). We don’t have quite the coast-to-coast match-up that he promised in the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, but this stampede should bring that prodigious stride into play rather more efficiently than did that messy little rehearsal. His works since have been spectacular, and to see it all come together now would not only carve an apt memorial to his grandsire; it would also shine a light on the self-effacing man of honor who trains him. It’s been an unconventional preparation, for sure, but then the rulebook doesn’t really apply to this unprecedented Derby.

Divided and distanced, then, we turn to the horse to bring us together. Perhaps if enough people can admire the beauty and spirit of the Thoroughbred, and aspire to its courage and endurance, then a Derby that has absorbed so much bitterness could yet process it into some kind of healing balm.

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Derby Notes: Enforceable May Be ‘More Forwardly Placed,’ ‘Break Is Everything’ For Storm The Court

Arnaldo Monge and trainer Rey Hernandez's Finnick the Fierce was declared out of Saturday's 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI) by his co-owners.

With the scratch of Finnick the Fierce, the inside stall and outside three stalls in the 20-horse starting gate will remain open for the field of 16 starters. Program numbers remain unchanged.

With the first good weather morning since Tuesday, all 16 entrants for the Run for the Roses trained over Churchill Downs' fast track Friday morning on the eve of the 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI).

Among the horses galloping during the 5:15-5:30 (all times Eastern) training window reserved for Derby and Oaks entrants were morning line Derby favorite Tiz the Law and second choice Honor A. P. who were two of the first horses on the track.

ATTACHMENT RATE – Jim Bakke and Gerald Isbister's Attachment Rate had his final morning of training before Saturday's Kentucky Derby.

Trainer Dale Romans reported everything is ready to go for the Ellis Park Derby runner-up.

AUTHENTIC/THOUSAND WORDS – With trainer Bob Baffert looking on, stablemates Authentic and Thousand Words each put in maintenance gallops Friday morning under perfect weather conditions at Churchill Downs.

Friday's clear skies were welcome after rain had soaked the Louisville area the previous two mornings. Derby and Oaks contenders were given a special training slot from 5:15-5:30 Friday and, after Oaks favorite Gamine stretched her legs with a race-day gallop, Authentic came on the scene under Humberto Gomez for a couple of laps around beneath the Twin Spires.

Thousand Words then emerged just after the special training period concluded and also galloped under Gomez.

Both colts are aiming to give Baffert what would be a record-tying sixth Kentucky Derby victory Saturday. Authentic has won four of five starts and bested Ny Traffic last time out in the Haskell Stakes (GI) on July 18.

“In the Haskell it looked like it he was going to be coming up short but a lot of it was he just shut it down early,” Baffert said. “But he's training really well, he's coming up to the race in great shape. He's the kind of horse where he looks around like in the stretch, I told (jockey) Johnny (Velazquez) if we're lucky and we turn for home and he's right there you have to keep him busy because he does check things out.”

Thousand Words, who is owned by Albaugh Family Stables and Spendthrift Farm, has been training forwardly since defeating Honor A. P. in the Shared Belief Stakes on Aug. 1.

“He's a horse who can be a little bit tough mentally. But all of the sudden he started doing really well,” Baffert said of the son of Pioneerof the Nile. “He's a horse where he's getting closer, his numbers are getting tougher and tougher. But everything has to go right for him. He's that kind of horse.”

ENFORCEABLE – Having arrived from Florida Thursday afternoon, Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse was on hand at Churchill Downs Friday morning to see for himself the form John Oxley's Enforceable is bringing into his Kentucky Derby run.

With assistant trainer David Carroll in the irons, Enforceable again looked like a horse wanting to do more as he galloped during the 5:15-5:30 a.m. exclusive training period for Oaks and Derby contenders. The son of Tapit — who is a full brother to graded stakes winner Mohaymen — has been eager in his morning outings all week and could end up closer to the pace Saturday than is typical for his late-running self.

“I was saying to David that I think he may be a little more forwardly placed than usual,” Casse said. “He's really on his game. In the Blue Grass Stakes (in which he finished fourth) he broke much better than he had been breaking and going 1 ¼ miles, I don't know that the pace is going to be crazy. So we're not going to take him back. We're going to let (jockey) Adam (Beschizza) place him wherever he feels comfortable but I'm going to think he'll be more forwardly placed.”

FINNICK THE FIERCE — Arnaldo Monge and trainer Rey Hernandez's Finnick the Fierce was declared out of Saturday's 146th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve (GI).

“Because he's blind on the right eye, he carries himself a little funny,” Monge said. “And we always knew that. But ever since he arrived, the vets have been keeping an eye on the horse and I'm telling Rey 'well, they're concerned about this' and there might be a legitimate reason but a regular vet doesn't seem to think so. So we're always trying to do the best for the horse so we made the decision (to scratch) because we don't want to go tomorrow and we're all excited and then he gets scratched at the post. So we always said this is a horse for the long term. It was an honor to be selected (for the Derby) but at the end of the day the most important thing is the horse. Maybe we are missing something I don't know, but I think the plan is to do more diagnostics on him and if everything is OK we'll run another day. What can we do, that's life.

“I didn't notice anything but it was always the right front. That's the same side as his eye and it's always been that way. Rey rides the horse and said 'this horse is fine' and that he didn't feel anything. I don't know. I know horse racing is under scrutiny all the time so I understand not trying to risk that publicity.

“We'll have to see what comes out of this next diagnostic test. Just to be on the up and up, we'll probably send him to Rood and Riddle and get an independent opinion on the horse. If all is good, (the Preakness) could be a consideration. Maybe the Breeders' Cup. Rey wanted to turn him out after the Derby anyway but it will depend on how this comes out. It's a bummer but we'll be back.”

The Dialed In gelding, who was seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes (GII) in his most recent start, had jogged, then galloped Friday morning with Hernandez aboard.

HONOR A. P. – C R K Stable's Honor A. P. was the first Kentucky Derby contender to set foot on the track Friday morning at 5:15 and galloped 1 5/8 miles with Javier Hernandez aboard and trainer John Shirreffs keeping close watch.

After watching the gallop Shirreffs was all smiles, but modest when complimented about how good his Santa Anita Derby winner looked.

“When you get to this level, they all look good,” said Shirreffs, who is seeking his second Kentucky Derby victory after pulling the upset with Giacomo in 2005.

MAJOR FED – Lloyd Madison Farm's Major Fed had his final morning of Derby training Friday with an easy one-mile jog and 1 5/8-mile gallop.

With exercise rider Margarito Fierro in the saddle alongside of Brian Theall aboard stable pony Alejandro, Major Fed will attempt to put his starting gate woes behind him in the Derby.

“We've gotten pretty unlucky at the start,” trainer Greg Foley said. “We schooled him a couple of times this week at the new gate and in the morning in the paddock. We just need things to go our way for once at the start.”

MAX PLAYER – George Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbred Corp.'s Max Player, had a strong 1 ½-mile gallop over a fast track at 5:15 a.m. under regular exercise rider Juan Vargas.

MONEY MOVES – Outfitted with his Kentucky Derby saddle towel, Money Moves galloped during the special 5:15 a.m. training period for Oaks and Derby contenders as trainer D. Wayne Lukas — who is overseeing the colt's conditioning on behalf of his protégé Todd Pletcher — kept watch astride his saddle horse.

MR. BIG NEWS – Allied Racing's Mr. Big News galloped 1 ½ miles Friday morning at 5:30 for trainer Bret Calhoun.

NECKER ISLAND – One of the last Derby horses to train Friday morning, Necker Island jogged once around under Hillary Hartman and then stood in the Kentucky Derby starting gate located in the mile chute.

Among those looking on with trainer Chris Hartman was Wayne Scheer from South Dakota, who owns Necker Island in partnership with Raymond Daniels and Will Harbut Racing.

NY TRAFFIC – John Fanelli, Cash is King, Paul Braverman and Team Hanley's Ny Traffic made the good impression as he came out at 5:15 a.m. and galloped 1 ½ miles around the Churchill track.

Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. participated in some the top 3-year-old races last year with Math Wizard, who hit the board in both the Ohio Derby (GIII) and Indiana Derby (GIII) before a breakout win in the Pennsylvania Derby (GI), but Ny Traffic is the first Classic starter for the 33-year-old trainer, a native of Barbados who has been training in the U.S. since 2011.

“The Derby means everything to me,” Joseph said. “That's why we came here. We hoped to one day win the Kentucky Derby and now to be in the position where we have a chance, we are very fortunate and blessed. We are just trying to take it all in.”

SOLE VOLANTE — After jogging Monday through Thursday, Reeves Thoroughbreds and Andie Biancone's Sole Volante was reunited with jockey Luca Panici for a strong 1 ½-mile gallop during the special 5:15 a.m. training time restricted to Oaks and Derby horses.

SOUTH BEND – It was another smooth morning for Bill Mott trainee South Bend as he galloped during the special 5:15 a.m. training session. Assistant trainer Kenny McCarthy continues to be pleased with what he is seeing from the son of Algorithms, who is attempting to make Mott the first trainer since Bob Baffert in 1997-98 to win the Kentucky Derby in consecutive years.

STORM THE COURT – Breeders' Cup Juvenile (GI) winner Storm the Court jogged a quarter-mile and then galloped a mile under Thomas Dubaele at 7:30 Friday morning.

Trainer Peter Eurton said Storm the Court would not go to the track Saturday morning in advance of his Derby run.

Owned by the partnership of Exline-Border Racing, David Bernsen, Susanna Wilson and Dan Hudock, Storm the Court will be ridden for the first time Saturday by Julien Leparoux.

Eurton, who is saddling his second Derby starter, was asked about the ideal scenario for Storm the Court to notch his first victory of 2020 Saturday.

“The others break a step slow and we break fast and they have to catch us,” Eurton said with a laugh. “The break is everything. If the pace is fast, we will be four to six lengths off it but if it is not a fast pace, we will be up on it.”

TIZ THE LAW –Sackatoga Stable's prohibitive 3-5 morning line favorite Tiz the Law had a strong 1 ½- mile gallop at 5:15 a.m. with regular rider Heather Smullen aboard in his final day of serious training before Saturday's Kentucky Derby. Trainer Barclay Tagg said the Belmont (G1) and Travers (G1) Stakes winner would go out for a one-mile jog Saturday morning.

“He had a very nice gallop,” Tagg said. “Right speed. Everything was comfortable. He pulled up nicely and came back nicely. We're all good. He'll jog once around tomorrow.”

The Constitution colt has won six of seven starts laying close to the pace and making one run at the top of the stretch. His trainer is hoping for a similar trip in the Derby.

“I'd like for us to be laying third all the way around until we get down for business,” Tagg said. “I'm very confident in our horse. He's a very nice colt. I hope he wins it. He's a good horse, good horses do good things.”

Next to Tagg and his partner/assistant Robin Smullen, the person who knows Tiz the Law the best is Heather Smullen, niece of Robin.

“He's good,” Heather Smullen said. “He does everything you ask him to do. He's very happy with himself and moved well over the track this morning (Friday).”

WINNING IMPRESSION – West Point Thoroughbreds and Pearl Racing's Winning Impression jogged a mile with exercise rider Emerson Chavez up for trainer Dallas Stewart.

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Kentucky Derby Pedigree Corner: Winning Impression, Necker Island, And Money Moves

Each day of Kentucky Derby week, we'll take a look at the pedigrees of some Derby contenders and how those pedigrees might factor into their ability to succeed at 1 1/4 miles.

Pedigree analysis for the rest of the Kentucky Derby field can be found below.

Winning Impression
Paynter x Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled's Song
Paynter is best known for his dramatic comeback from a life-threatening illness, but he was also a decorated two-turn runner. His biggest win came in the G1 Haskell Invitational Stakes at 1 1/8 miles, and he finished second in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. At age four, he turned in runner-up efforts in the G1 Awesome Again Stakes (1 1/8 miles) and G2 San Diego Handicap (1 1/16 miles).

He has an average progeny winning distance of 6.95 furlongs, putting him in the lower-mid pack among this year's Derby sires. His star runner is Knicks Go, who won the G1 Breeders' Futurity and finished second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, both at 1 1/16 miles. Lazy Daisy took the G2 Pocahontas Stakes at the same distance. Ms Peintour has arguably done the most to boost her sire's distance credentials, notching a win in the G3 Astra Stakes going 1 1/2 miles over the turf.

Winning Impression would be Paynter's first Derby starter.

Unbridled Sonya went one-for-nine during her racing career, graduating in her second start, a Belmont Park maiden special weight going 7 furlongs on the turf.

She is also the dam of Queen Arella, a 2-year-old of 2020 who became the first winner for sire Speightster when she took a 5 furlong maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park. Unbridled Sonya was sold to continue her broodmare career in Korea at the 2018 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale.

Necker Island
Hard Spun x Jenny's Rocket, by Mr. Greeley
Hard Spun finished second in his own Kentucky Derby try in 2007, but he proved himself to be a versatile runner, taking the G1 King's Bishop Stakes at 7 furlongs and the G2 Lane's End Stakes and Kentucky Cup Classic Stakes at 1 1/8 miles. He also finished second in the Breeders' Cup Classic at 1 1/4 miles.

His own foals post an average winning distance of 7.64 furlongs, which is near the top of the list for this year's Derby sires. His most notable runner on the classic stage is Wicked Strong, who won the G1 Wood Memorial Stakes at 1 1/8 miles en route to finishing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes.

Stonestreet Farm homebred Jenny's Rocket went winless in four career starts in South Florida, but she was never worse than third in any of those efforts, all of them around one turn.

The two foals to race out of Jenny's Rocket are both winners. Joining Necker Island is the Super Saver colt In the Loop, who won on debut in a six-furlong Gulfstream Park maiden special weight, and later won a waiver claiming race at Belmont Park at the same distance.

Money Moves
Candy Ride x Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen
Candy Ride was a turf star in his native Argentina, taking a pair of Group 1 races at a mile. He then moved to Southern California where he proved his mettle on both surfaces, winning the G1 Pacific Classic at 1 1/4 miles on the dirt, and the G2 American Handicap at 1 1/8 miles on the grass.

Those looking for Candy Ride's classic credentials as a sire need look no further than 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, who finished third in the Kentucky Derby, and went on to win six G1 races, including the Breeders' Cup Classic and the Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes. Champion Shared Belief was also a Pacific Classic winner at the same distance as his sire. Game Winner ran a solid fifth in last year's Derby.

Citizen Advocate rolled off a diverse four-race winning streak as a 2-year-old, breaking her maiden at six furlongs on the dirt, then taking the Catcharisingstar Stakes over five furlongs on the turf at Calder Race Course. She then won at 6 furlongs over the all-weather Tapeta at Presque Isle Downs before shipping to Delta Downs to win the My Trusty Cat Stakes over 7 furlongs.

She never won again, but she finished second or third in five additional stakes races in Florida and Louisiana, highlighted by a runner-up effort in the G3 Azalea Stakes at 6 furlongs. Her longest black-type earning effort came at 7 1/2 furlongs over the turf.

Money Moves is the second starter out of Citizen Advocate, joining Remarqued, a daughter of Arch who was a maiden special weight winner at Saratoga, going 1 mile on the turf.

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