Kentucky Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

According to Trakus, Honor A.P. ‘Fastest’ Horse in Derby

Using information from the Trakus chart of the GI Kentucky Derby, horse owner, college professor and horseplayer, Marshall Gramm has found that fourth-place finisher Honor A.P. (Honor Code) may have actually run faster than any of his rivals.

According to Trakus, Honor A.P. traveled 6,712 feet or 49 feet further than race winner Authentic (Into Mischief). Tiz the Law (Constitution) also lost some ground and traveled 23 feet further then Authentic. For all three horses, their average speed was 37.8 miles per hour.

Gramm took an even deeper look into the numbers. He divided the distance each horse traveled by their final time, giving him a calculation of how many feet they traveled per second. Honor A.P. covered 55.40 feet per second. He then used that figure to come up with a final adjusted time for a mile-and-a-quarter, which is 6,600 feet. His recalculated time for Honor A.P. was 1:59.14.

His adjusted time for Authentic was 1:59.40. The actual time for the race was 2:00.61.

Gramm’s calculations confirm that Honor A.P. may have had the worst trip of any of the main contenders in the Derby. This is the Equibase chart caller’s summary of his trip: “Honor A.P. hesitated at the start, was unhurried while four wide into the first turn, looped into the backstretch six deep, made a steady sweeping move through the second turn, fanned into the nine path into the stretch, continued on and was making progress.

Honor A.P was beaten five lengths.

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The Week in Review: Authentic Represents Baffert’s Finest Work

The Authentic (Into Mischief) who won the GI Haskell S. at Monmouth by a nose didn’t look like a horse that could win the GI Kentucky Derby. Against a field decidedly weaker than what he would face seven weeks later at Churchill Downs, he nearly squandered a 2 1/2-length lead in the stretch and seemed to be running on fumes in the last few yards of the mile-and-an-eighth race. The mile-and-a-quarter loomed as a major obstacle.

Even trainer Bob Baffert acknowledged that Authentic needed to take things to another level.

“I’m happy with him. But he still has a lot of improving to do,” he said after the Haskell. “We’re going to work on him a little until then (the Derby).”

Complicating matters in the Derby, Authentic didn’t break sharply, compromising his chances. By the time he made the lead, the field had completed the opening quarter-mile in 22.92.

So when Tiz the Law (Constitution) ranged alongside Authentic at the quarter pole in the Derby, the race appeared to be over. But it was a different Authentic that showed up Saturday. He didn’t lose his focus and he had something left in the tank for the final furlong. He actually spurted clear of Tiz the Law to win by 1 1/4 lengths.

“Yeah, I heard all of that. People saying after the Haskell he definitely can’t go that far,” said John Velazquez, who picked up the mount when Mike Smith chose to ride Honor A.P. (Honor Code). “The mile-and-a-quarter will be very far for him. I was very confident. I’ve got a good trainer.”

That much is obvious. Somehow, Baffert orchestrated a complete makeover of Authentic. Much of the work seems to have been accomplished in the mornings. Baffert is known for working his horses fast but took a different approach with Authentic. His works included a one-mile breeze in 1:38.60, part of a pattern that included longer and slower works than what you normally see from the Hall of Fame trainer. The end result was a more composed horse who thrived at a mile-and-a-quarter.

Back in May, Authentic was being overshadowed by Nadal (Blame) and Charlatan (Speightstown), horses who were typical of what the Baffert operation has been producing over the last many years. Like American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) and Justify (Scat Daddy), they didn’t necessarily need any help from their trainer. They accomplished what they accomplished because they were super talented. Authentic is a very good horse, but also an example of the type of horse who might not have won the Derby with any other trainer.

With Baffert starting out every year with 50 or 60 superbly bred, expensive 2-year-olds, he has a chance every year to come into the Derby with a hand that is stronger than any of his rivals. That is among the reasons he has six Kentucky Derby wins, tying him with Ben Jones for first place among all trainers. Baffert will surely get to No. 7 before he’s done and could easily win 10 or so. If that happens he will unquestionably be the greatest Derby trainer in history.

In the meantime, the Ben Jones-versus-Baffert debate is an interesting one.

Jones needed only 11 starts in the Derby to record his six wins, which were accomplished over a 14-year span from 1938 to 1952. Baffert has started 33 horses in the Derby over 24 years. But he has been operating in an era where there are far more foals and the number of starters in the Derby is often 20. Jones won three Derbies where there were 11 or fewer starters, including in 1948 when Citation topped a field of six.

The other factor that must be considered is that many believe that Ben Jones was not the trainer of Citation and it was, instead, his son Jimmy Jones. The younger Jones was listed as Citation’s trainer for the first 15 starts of his career before being entered under the name of Ben for the Derby Trial and the Derby. After the Derby, Citation continued to run in Jimmy’s name. The move was made to give Ben a chance to draw closer to Herbert “Derby Dick” Thompson for most Derby wins by a trainer. Thompson had four at the time.

Baffert said Sunday morning that both Authentic and Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) will likely go next in the GI Preakness S. Baffert has seven Preakness wins, tying him for first with R. Wyndham Walden, who dominated the race in the late 1800s. With Baffert heading to Baltimore with a new and improved Authentic, win No. 8 may only be four weeks away.

Preakness Could Decide 3-Year-Old Championship

Entering Saturday, Tiz the Law looked like a cinch to win the 3-year-old championship, but not anymore as Authentic is in the mix. A Preakness win could vault Authentic into the top spot in the division, where he would remain if neither he nor Tiz the Law wins the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Jack Knowlton, who heads the group that owns Tiz the Law, is well aware of the possible scenarios.

“I think we are still in the lead for the Eclipse, but if Authentic goes there and wins he’ll be in the lead,” Knowlton said. “I’d like to go there and win that race. If we do that and beat Authentic that would put an exclamation point on the end of the sentence. If neither of us win, I think we’d be in a better position with three Grade I wins. That’s where I am.

“In all likelihood, he has a better chance of winning the Preakness than the Breeders’ Cup Classic, where you’d be facing horses like Tom’s d’Etat [Smart Strike], Maximum Security [Maximum Security] and some other really good older horses. I’d like one more go against the 3-year-olds.”

Knowlton said no decision has been reached yet concerning the Preakness and admitted that trainer Barclay Tagg is reluctant to run him there.

Kudos to Churchill Stewards

The Churchill Downs stewards could not have handled the disqualification of Maximum Security in last year’s Derby any worse. First, they failed to post an inquiry into what was clearly a very roughly run race and then they refused to take any questions from the media after issuing a brief statement that left a lot of questions unanswered.

Apparently, they have learned from their mistakes. After Friday’s sixth race, which involved the disqualification of Lasting Legacy (Tapizar), the chief steward Barbara Borden come on the track’s television feed to explain the decision. Stewards’ reports involving DQ’s are also posted on the Churchill Downs website.

Let’s hope other tracks follow Churchill’s lead. Transparency is never a bad thing.

Another Horse Wins After Drastic Late Odds Drop

By now, horseplayers are used to seeing dramatic drops in the odds after the field leaves the gate, but what happened in Saturday’s second race at Saratoga was hard to fathom. When the horses loaded into the gate, Vineyard Sound (Stormy Atlantic) was 24-1. While the race was being run Vineyard Sound dropped to 11-1. A winner, of course, Vineyard Sound paid off at 8-1.

Saying it again: horse racing is the only gambling game where you can win a bet and feel like you’ve lost.

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Kentucky Derby Delivers Most Watched 2020 Sporting Event Since Super Bowl LIV

NBC Sports' presentation of the rescheduled 146th Kentucky Derby on Saturday averaged a preliminary* Total Audience Delivery of 8.4 million viewers across NBC and NBC Sports Digital – ranking as the most-watched sporting event since Super Bowl LIV in February and the most-watched sporting event on Labor Day Weekend since 2017, based on fast national data from Nielsen and digital data from Adobe Analytics (*does not include Out of Home viewership, which is included in official national viewership as of Aug. 31, 2020, and will be available later this week).

In addition, 9.8 million viewers watched on NBC as Authentic crossed the finish line 1 1/4 lengths ahead of favorite Tiz the Law.

Immediately following the Kentucky Derby on NBC, Saturday night's Game 7 of the New York Islanders-Philadelphia Flyers Second Round series (a 4-0 Islanders' victory), averaged a preliminary TAD of 2.57 million viewers – marking the most-watched game of the 2020 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs.

Additional Viewership Highlights:

The 2020 Kentucky Derby, with 8.3 million viewers on NBC (TV only), topped by 20% the most-watched sporting event on last year's Labor Day Weekend (6.9 million, Oregon-Auburn college football on ABC, Sat. 8/31/19).
The 2020 Kentucky Derby (6:37-7:23 p.m. ET) delivered a 4.8/14 fast national rating. Local market ratings for all 56 metered markets will be available Monday afternoon. (By comparison, the 2019 Kentucky Derby telecast registered a 10.9 overnight rating with a 25 audience share.)
NBC Sports Digital delivered an Average Minute Audience of 132,800 viewers for the 2020 Kentucky Derby to rank as NBC Sports' most-streamed horse racing event ever.

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Derby Wrap: Authentic ‘Not Even Tired’, On to Preakness

A day after picking up his record-tying sixth GI Kentucky Derby win in a renewal as unorthodox as they come, trainer Bob Baffert said victor Authentic (Into Mischief) “wasn’t even tired” Sunday morning after going wire to wire and turning back odds-on Tiz the Law (Constitution) in Saturday’s Run for the Roses.

“I couldn’t believe it, I thought he might be a little tired today,” Baffert said. “He came out of it well.”

The triumph for Baffert was plenty unorthodox as well. After appearing to have a strangehold on the Derby in the spring, Baffert lost top contenders Charlatan (Speightstown) and Nadal (Blame) to injury. Late bloomer Uncle Chuck (Uncle Mo) then finished up the track in the GI Runhappy Travers S., eliminating him from Derby contention. Finally, in the Churchill Downs paddock Saturday, his Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) flipped and had to be scratched, leaving Authentic as his lone starter. The incident sent longtime Baffert assistant Jimmy Barnes to the hospital with a broken wrist, adding one final touch of emotion to Authentic’s win.

“Jimmy is going to need surgery, I think he’ll need eight screws in his wrist but he actually was here this morning. He’s a trooper,” Baffert said. “I was so emotional yesterday because I wanted him to be there. To me, that was most emotional Derby I’ve ever been involved in because of what happened during that little time frame. It was the most crazy 30 minutes I’ve had in racing.”

“Before May, I was looking so strong and then everything just went wrong,” Baffert continued. “And to pull it off like that was really exciting. Winning the Kentucky Derby is the biggest moment in a trainer’s life. When you win it, it erases everything that has gone bad.”

Roller Coaster Half-Hour for Spendthrift

The late scratch of Thousand Words also affected Spendthrift Farm, which co-owns the colt with Albaugh Family Stables and co-owns Authentic with My Racehorse, Madaket Stables and Starlight Racing.

“It was all so unbelievable. I walked over with the Albaughs and we’re all enjoying the moment and then, the next thing you know [Thousand Words] exploded and went over,” said Mark Toothaker, stallion sales manager of Spendthrift Farm. “The state vet walked over and said he was a scratch. So you had all the emotion of, you are within 20 minutes of having a horse getting ready to run in the Kentucky Derby that we picked out and we’re so excited and as we were walking through the tunnel, I said to our general manger Ned Toffey, ‘If there is a Derby God out there, maybe we can win.’ For Authentic to just keep giving it in the stretch, it was like he had an extra push.”

A trip to Baltimore for the GI Preakness S. Oct. 3 is slated as the next objective for both Authentic and Thousand Words, as the latter escaped his paddock fall without injury. Baffert said both colts will head to the shedrow of Hall of Famer D. Wayne Lukas to stay for the next few weeks so Baffert doesn’t have to ship them back to California in the interim.

“Being that the Preakness is a few weeks away, I thought it might be too hard on them to go back. So I have an assistant trainer, this D. Wayne Lukas guy here,” Baffert joked. “So they’re going to be in Wayne’s barn. We’re going to run them out of here. If they’re working well and all going well, they’ll go to the Preakness. I didn’t want to take them all the way to California and back. I want to give them every opportunity. We’re planning on [running] both if they’re doing well. Thousand Words, we’ll give him another chance at it. He didn’t have a scratch on him.”

Barnes Back in Action Sunday Morning

Barnes was back to work dark and early Sunday morning, albeit in a compromised capacity. He said he wasn’t going to say anything about his broken right wrist Saturday until he rolled up his sleeve and saw it at the wrong angle.

“When it happened, I wasn’t going to say anything. I was going to say I was OK. I knew it kind of hurt,” he said. “Then I pulled my sleeve up and saw it was pointing a different direction. So I pulled it back down and said, ‘I better say something.'”

Barnes watched the Derby on a phone in the ambulance on his way to Norton Audubon Hospital. He said the ER personnel knew he was connected to the Derby winner, and that the ER doctor actually was a co-breeder of Baffert’s two-time Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute (Real Quiet).

“He didn’t surprise me, the way he trains and the way you watch him move,” Barnes said of Authentic. “He’s just this big leaper. He’s got a huge stride on him. He just got out there motoring along. Johnny V rode him superbly. He committed early and if you’re going to go with him you’re going to be running fast. So they kind of backed off a bit, from what I saw. For him to straighten out and switch leads, because you look at his earlier races and he was very erratic in the stretch in numerous races. But Johnny V, when he pulled his stick through to the left hand and got after him, boy, he just leveled out and said, ‘They’re not going by me today.'”

Asked about the roller coaster of breaking his wrist in a scary paddock accident and then winning a Derby less than a half-hour later, Barnes said of horse racing, “You can be on the floor and then be up in the sky soaring.”

Tiz the Law in Good Shape, Next Start Undetermined

Sackatoga Stable’s beaten favorite Tiz the Law is scheduled to return to New York Tuesday with plans for a next start to be determined.

“I just looked him over,” trainer Barclay Tagg said. “His legs are good. He ate good. Everything’s good.”

The four-time Grade I winner, who went off as the 7-10 chalk Saturday, sustained only the second loss in his eight-race career, with both setbacks coming at Churchill Downs. He was third in last November’s GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on a sealed sloppy track.

“The jock [Manny Franco] said that when he really had to get down and run, he was kind of swimming on that track. He didn’t like the track,” Tagg said. “You could see it in the stretch. He looked like he was going to go on by and win easy. His last [Beyer] number was a 109 [in the GI Runhappy Travers S.]. He bounced down to a 103 this time … I don’t want to say too much about the Preakness. I just want to see how he is. He’ll go back to New York and we’ll evaluate him.”

“He ran good and came out of it great. I was over at the barn this morning and all is well,” principal owner Jack Knowlton added. “I’ll have [the Preakness] discussion with Barclay and we’ll take a little time to see. My thinking is that we will [go], but we’ll have the horse dictate what’s going to happen. Certainly that would be my preference but we’ve just go to see how he comes out and see how he works when we have the next work in a couple weeks. We’ll have time for a couple works.”

Other Preakness Hopefuls

According to the Pimlico notes team, longshot third finisher in the Derby Mr. Big News (Giant’s Causeway) is likely headed to Baltimore. The three horses who had to scratch the week of the Derby–Art Collector (Bernardini), King Guillermo (Uncle Mo) and Finnick the Fierce (Dialed In)–are also Preakness-bound.

Among other potential Preakness horses are Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper) and Dr Post (Quality Road), respectively first and fourth in Saturday’s GII Jim Dandy S. at Saratoga; Manitoba Derby winner Mongolian Wind (Mucho Macho Man), entered in Monday’s Gold Cup S. at Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg; Lebda (Raison d’Etat), winner of the Miracle Wood S.and Private Terms S. at Laurel over the winter and most recently third in the Robert Hilton Memorial S. Aug. 28 at Charles Town; Pneumatic (Uncle Mo), last-out winner of the Pegasus S. Aug. 15 at Monmouth Park and fourth in the Belmont for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen; and the Baffert-trained Azul Coast (Super Saver), winner of the El Camino Real Derby Feb. 15 at Golden Gate and second to Authentic in the GIII Sham S.

The Federico Tesio S. Monday at Laurel is a ‘Win and In’ qualifier for Triple Crown-nominated horses to the Preakness. Happy Saver (Super Saver), undefeated in two career starts for trainer Todd Pletcher, is the 1-2 program favorite for the 1 1/8-mile Preakness prep.

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