Fresh Off Derby/Oaks Double, John Velazquez Joins Writers’ Room

There's been a lot of attention, rightfully so, on Bob Baffert in the wake of his record-breaking seventh GI Kentucky Derby conquest Saturday. But John Velazquez made a little history of his own under the Twin Spires this weekend, becoming just the eighth jockey ever to win both the GI Kentucky Oaks and Derby in the same year. Wednesday, the Hall of Fame rider joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by J.P. Morgan Private Banking and Keeneland to talk Malathaat (Curlin), Medina Spirit (Protonico), his approach to race-riding, potential plans for when he retires and much more.

Calling in via Zoom as the Green Group Guest of the Week, Velazquez spoke about the winning Derby strategy to put Medina Spirit on the lead, saying, “He's pretty quick from the gate, so we had talked about it, but I got a text from Bob like five days before the race. He said, 'Man, the horse is doing well. He worked really good. I think you should come out of there running and go all or nothing.' I said, wait a minute Bob, I haven't studied the race yet. I had it in the back of my head [Rock Your World] would be on the lead. We talked that night and went through every horse and all their races … I'm inside of Rock Your World, he's far out [in the 14-post]. I'm going to come out running and if he wants to go to the lead, he's going to have to run much faster than me and use his horse going into the first turn. Obviously, he didn't break well, we got to the lead and the rest was history.”

As successful as Velazquez's Derby strategy was, he may have had even more to do with Malathaat's Oaks triumph. Not away all that well, he hustled his filly early to get into striking position in anticipation of a slow pace. Then, in a stretch battle with Search Results (Flatter), Velazquez moved his mount in just enough to intimidate her foe without knocking her off stride, locking up a narrow decision in the closing strides.

“Right out of the gate, it was not what I was expecting,” he said. “She didn't really jump out of there and kind of got squeezed from the first jump. I changed my mind right away. The horses that I don't want to be behind are in front of me, so I had to make a decision and try to get a position that I'm going to be comfortable with. My mind works so quickly and you have less than a second to think. I went all the way back to when I rode her mom [Dreaming of Julia, fourth as the favorite in the 2013 Oaks] and I got squeezed out of the gate and never recuperated. But she responded right away and got me to the position I wanted. Then coming down the lane, it was funny, because I thought it was going to be much tougher to get to Irad [Ortiz, on Search Results], but she got to him so quickly that when she put her head in front, she started waiting and wanting to lean on top of them. So now it's my job to control her and keep it as tight as I can, keep it competitive, but without bothering the other horse. She did everything I asked her to do. It's incredible when you ride these kinds of horses and on top of [their talent], they're giving you everything you ask for and being competitive.”

Elsewhere in the show, the writers broke down all the action from a loaded Derby weekend and asked cohost Jon Green about DJ Stable's experience with their first Derby starter. Then, in the West Point Thoroughbreds news segment, they reacted to federal attorneys' response to anti-HISA lawsuits and, in the Minnesota Racehorse Engagement Project Story of the Week, discussed the impact of Mattress Mack's $2.4-million Derby bet. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version.

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Economic Indicators: April Oaks Card Provides Major Wagering Boost

Equibase, LLC released its fourth monthly report of 2021 on Economic Indicators in Thoroughbred Racing on Wednesday, May 5. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Equibase has been providing monthly economic indicators advisories. The Advisory is typically disseminated on a quarterly basis to provide key metrics used to measure racing's performance throughout the year.

The April 30 Kentucky Oaks card provided a big boost to total wagering in the month of April, especially when compared to the same period in 2020, when the pandemic first took hold and tracks across the country were shutting down. Compared to 2019, however, when the Oaks was held in May, total wagering showed an increase of over 30 percent, while average daily wagering was up over 45 percent.

The more representative year-to-date numbers, from the first four months of 2019 to the first four months of 2021, still show total wagering up 14.44 percent while average daily wagering is up over 25 percent. With the return of the Kentucky Derby to the first Saturday in May, rather than Sept. 5, next month's wagering numbers should also show significant increases over the same dates in 2020.

April 2021 vs. April 2020
Indicator April 2021 April 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $1,103,109,455 $639,331,643 +72.54%
U.S. Purses $89,560,290 $17,500,400 +411.76%
U.S. Race Days 279 85 +228.24%
U.S. Races 2,425 746 +225.07%
U.S. Starts 18,039 6,810 +164.89%
Average Field Size 7.44 9.13 -18.51%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,953,797 $7,521,549 -47.43%
Average Purses Per Race Day $321,005 $205,887 +55.91%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2020
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2020 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $3,869,205,732 $3,147,861,049 +22.92%
U.S. Purses $304,560,597 $222,728,051 +36.74%
U.S. Race Days 1,045 878 +19.02%
U.S. Races 9,127 7,362 +23.97%
U.S. Starts 70,250 58,783 +19.51%
Average Field Size 7.70 7.98 -3.60%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,702,589 $3,585,263 +3.27%
Average Purses Per Race Day $291,446 $253,677 +14.89%

2019 Comparisons:

April 2021 vs. April 2019
Indicator April 2021 April 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races $1,103,109,455 $845,958,246 +30.40%
U.S. Purses $89,560,290 $85,910,830 +4.25%
U.S. Race Days 279 311 -10.29%
U.S. Races 2,425 2,612 -7.16%
U.S. Starts 18,039 19,728 -8.56%
Average Field Size 7.44 7.55 -1.51%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,953,797 $2,720,123 +45.35%
Average Purses Per Race Day $321,005 $276,241 +16.20%

YTD 2021 vs. YTD 2019
Indicator YTD 2021 YTD 2019 % Change
Wagering on U.S. Races* $3,869,205,732 $3,380,927,018 +14.44%
U.S. Purses $304,560,597 $313,030,470 -2.71%
U.S. Race Days 1,045 1,155 -9.52%
U.S. Races 9,127 9,902 -7.83%
U.S. Starts 70,250 76,558 -8.24%
Average Field Size 7.70 7.73 -0.45%
Average Wagering Per Race Day $3,702,589 $2,927,210 +26.49%
Average Purses Per Race Day $291,446 $271,022 +7.54%

* Includes worldwide commingled wagering on U.S. races.

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Bloodlines: Kentucky Derby Winner Medina Spirit’s Pedigree Not As Obscure As It Might Seem

The lyrics of Dan Fogleberg's song Run for the Roses, “the chance of a lifetime in a lifetime of chance,” are well understood in assessing Medina Spirit, the winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby. By measures of pedigree fashion, economic success, or marquee appeal, the dark brown son of Protonico and Mongolian Changa (by Brilliant Speed) was not a star.

But in the Grade 1 classic at Churchill Downs, the colt who cost $1,000 as a short yearling, by an under-appreciated sire and out of a mare who was given away, bucked the odds, flattened the probabilities, and looked like several million dollars as he led from early 'till late and won the Kentucky Derby by a half-length from Mandaloun (Into Mischief).

On pedigree, Medina Spirit is not poorly or even quite obscurely bred. Neither could it be said that his parents are trend setters in bloodstock, at least not until the first Saturday in May.

The colt's sire is the beautifully pedigreed Protonico, a dark bay son of leading sire Giant's Causeway out of the A.P. Indy mare Alpha Spirit, a daughter of Chilean champion and U.S. G1 winner Wild Spirit (Hussonet). The latter won a trio of G1s in her homeland for owner-breeder Haras Sumaya, which also bred Alpha Spirit and Protonico, and in the U.S., Wild Spirit won the G1 Ruffian, was second in the G1 Apple Blossom and Personal Ensign.

Protonico's race record likewise was nothing to sneer at. A three-time winner at the Grade 3 level, the son of Giant's Causeway stepped to win the G2 Alysheba at Churchill Downs in 2015 as a 4-year-old. In addition, he also ran second in the G1 Clark Handicap at Churchill at three and was third in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont at five.

Perhaps the prejudice against “turf horses” put Protonico in the wrong category, even though he could make a good claim as one of his sire's best dirt performers.

The colt represents the Storm Cat branch of Northern Dancer through the former's best stallion son Giant's Causeway, and this is the second year in a row that a descendant of Storm Cat won the Kentucky Derby after Authentic last year, who comes from Storm Cat through Harlan, Harlan's Holiday, and Into Mischief.

Whereas agent Gary Young was charged with finding his client a Protonico, and Medina Spirit was the result, the dam's side of the Derby winner's pedigree wasn't a commercial model either until her son began racing.

From the first crop of the Dynaformer stallion Brilliant Speed, Mongolian Changa was a big, scopey yearling who appealed to trainer Wayne Rice, and he purchased the filly for $9,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October yearling sale in 2015. Racing only at two, Mongolian Changa won a maiden special at Presque Isle in August of her juvenile season and earned $25,970 in six starts.

A reported bowed tendon having ended the filly's career at that point, Mongolian Changa was sent to Protonico at Taylor Made Farm in 2017, and Gail Rice bred the Kentucky Derby winner from the mare in 2018. Then as part of a divorce, Rice sold the colt as a short yearling for $1,000 to Christy Whitman, who brought the colt back as a 2-year-old in the June sale of horses in training last year that was postponed to July due to the pandemic.

At that sale, Medina Spirit rocked his three-furlong breeze in :33 flat and earned the highest BreezeFig at the distance last year for his performance at the sale. Neither the time nor the fig brought a rush of buyers to Whitman's barn, but the dark brown colt is a study in how a horse should look when breezing. The breeze video can be seen here.

Gary Young, as agent, acquired the colt for Amr Zedan's Zedan Racing Stables. Zedan had wanted to buy a juvenile by Protonico because he's good friend to the owner-breeder of Protonico, Oussama Aboughazale.

Aboughazale owns Haras Sumaya near Santiago, Chile, and is a primary player in the drama that brought Medina Spirit into being and to prominence. In addition to urging his friend to purchase a Protonico 2-year-old, Aboughazale bred and raced the sire, as well as the dam and second dam.

Although at least one Grade 1 victory is nearly a requirement for a term at stud in Kentucky, the owner of Sumaya Stud wanted his horse to stand in Kentucky and backed him each year with mares. That is a difficult push commercially, however, and the horse stood his first season at Taylor Made Farm, where Medina Spirit was conceived, then stood his second season in 2018 at Darby Dan, and has since been resident at Castleton Lyons on Iron Works Pike north of Lexington.

Castleton's farm manager, Pat Hayes, said that the farm had received more than two dozen requests for seasons in the two days after the Kentucky Derby, and breeders are clearly not having trouble identifying Protonico now that Medina Spirit is a household name.

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Derby Winner Medina Spirit ‘Moving Very Well’ On First Day Back To The Track

Zedan Racing Stables' Medina Spirit returned to the track pre-dawn Wednesday morning for the first time since winning Saturday's Kentucky Derby (G1), jogging a mile around Churchill Downs under exercise rider Humberto Gomez. Jimmy Barnes, Bob Baffert's assistant who is overseeing the training of the horses at Churchill Downs while the Hall of Fame trainer tends to business at his California base, was on the pony accompanying Medina Spirit around the track.

“Very pleased with what we saw,” Barnes said. “He was moving very well and very happy. That's the main thing. It's kind of a cool morning, so that's a good training day for a horse.”

Barnes also expressed pleasure with Baffert-trained Concert Tour's morning gallop around the Churchill track under Gomez.

“He was strong,” Barnes said. “I like what I'm seeing. I've always liked Concert Tour. By not running in the Derby, he's real fresh now. He's had plenty of time between races.”

Gary and Mary West's homebred son of Street Sense, who impressively captured the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn, was kept out of the Derby after sustaining his first loss while finishing third in the Arkansas Derby (G1).

Barnes said both horses will train Thursday following the 7-7:30 a.m. track renovation break at Churchill Downs.

Trainer Robertino Diodoro said a final decision will be made by Saturday but that Cypress Creek Equine, Arnold Bennewith and Spendthrift Farm LLC's Keepmeinmind is likely to run in the May 15 Preakness at Pimlico as long as he continues to do well in the aftermath of his Kentucky Derby (G1) seventh-place finish.

Keepmeinmind closed from last of 19 horses, rallying from about 20 lengths back and being forced eight-wide, to lose by a total of 8 1/2 lengths behind triumphant Medina Spirit.

Keepmeinmind resumed training at Churchill Downs Wednesday morning, jogging two miles.

“We'll give him a couple of days of going back to the track to make sure everything is OK and we'll discuss it with the owner group and make a decision by Saturday,” Diodoro said by phone from Hot Springs, Ark. “A guy never wants to be happy with seventh. But if you really watch the replay close, he was one of the few horses, maybe the only one, running at the end. He did get fanned out into the middle of the racetrack at the top of the lane. I think the track was starting to get very dry, and I think that's why he was one of the few horses running at the end. And he had a strong gallop-out.

“We were happy to get him back to his old running style, where we got the blinkers off and got him to relax the first part of it,” he added. “We just want to make sure we do right by the horse. So far, he's ate up and he's doing good, so we'll just give him a few more days to make sure he's 100 percent. If he's not 100 percent, we'll just take a step back. But right now, we're moving forward. But again, we want to make sure we do what's right by him, and not what we want to do. We want to let him tell us what he wants to do.”

Diodoro said David Cohen will be back aboard if Keepmeinmind runs in the Preakness.

Keepmeinmind showed last year that he can be competitive with the best of his generation. The son of Laoban started his career with a pair of seconds, the latter at 52-1 odds in Keeneland's Claiborne Breeders' Futurity (G1), won by beaten Derby favorite Essential Quality.

Diodoro added blinkers for Keepmeinmind's next start, a third-place finish at 30-1 odds behind Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie in the $2 million Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1). In the Kentucky Derby, Essential Quality was fourth, losing by a total of a length, while Hot Rod Charlie was third.

Keepmeinmind's Derby prep schedule was hampered by inclement weather and postponed races in Arkansas. He finished sixth in his 3-year-old debut in Oaklawn's Rebel Stakes (G2), won by Preakness contender Concert Tour, and then was fifth in Keeneland's Blue Grass (G2). The blinkers subsequently came off for the Derby.

“His running style is another thing I like about coming back in two weeks,” Diodoro said. “He really only runs the last three-eighths of a mile. That's the comment Cohen made, too. He just gallops. The other day he got back to his old running style where he just gallops along the first part of it, was nice and relaxed and takes one run at them the last three-eighths. I think his running style is more suitable when you have to come back in two weeks.”

Asmussen 'Happy' with Midnight Bourbon's Return to Track

Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon, sixth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) after taking second in the Louisiana Derby (G2), resumed training early Wednesday morning. The son of Tiznow jogged around the Churchill Downs track under exercise rider Wilson Fabian for a possible start in the May 15 Preakness Stakes (G1) at Pimlico.

Trainer Steve Asmussen said it was premature to make a final decision on the Preakness but that he's pleased with what he's seen so far from Midnight Bourbon since the Derby.

“I'm happy with how he went back to the track,” said the Hall of Fame trainer, who won the 2007 Preakness with two-time Horse of the Curlin and in 2009 with the filly Rachel Alexandra, also voted Horse of the Year. “The racetrack is a little bit wet this morning, but he handled it nicely. There's no reason to make the decision today. There's no upside.”

If Midnight Bourbon runs in the Preakness, he'll need a new rider with Mike Smith riding Concert Tour for trainer Bob Baffert. That is not among Asmussen's worries.

“There are six less riders in the Preakness than there is the Derby,” he said. “Somehow you figure it sorts itself out.”

Rombauer, Unbridled Honor and France Go de Ina are also expected to run in the Middle Jewel of the Triple Crown. Mandaloun, Caddo River and Ram are on the list of possibles.

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