Flavien Prat is in the right place at the right time in Southern California. Young and gifted, he dominates the circuit in a way no jockey has in years. He picked up his 60th win of the meet Saturday, 25 more than runner-up Juan Hernandez. He won three stakes on the card, giving him 15 for the meet. And he rides for just about all the top barns on the circuit, most notably Bob Baffert.
It's far, far from broke, but Prat is intent on fixing it. On Saturday, he told Jay Privman of the Daily Racing Form that he plans to ride the Keeneland meeting in April and then will move to Belmont Park. Belmont opens Apr. 28.
Prat told Privman that he thought riding in New York would give him as better shot of a winning an Eclipse Award. He was an Eclipse finalist in 2021, but lost out to Joel Rosario.
“It feels like if you want to give yourself a chance to get an Eclipse Award that you need to go to New York,” he said. “That's just the way it is. I never thought I'd leave here, to be honest.”
It's not that Prat isn't good enough to ride in New York. Far from it. The problem for him will be that he will have to find a way to stand out in what is the most crowded jockey colony in the country. There's Jose Ortiz, Irad Ortiz Jr., Luis Saez and Rosario. John Velazquez, who has been riding in California, will be back. Umberto Rispoli has also announced that he, too, will be making the shift from California to New York.
The competition Prat will face in New York will be fierce, hardly the case in California, where the jockey colony has never been weaker. That's a big part of the reason Prat has been so successful in California…he's just a lot better than everyone else. The question is, how much has that played into his dominance there?
Prat will no doubt enjoy some success in New York. The key will be breaking into the top barns. He's won 13 races and 10 stakes for Chad Brown. He's had four winners over the years for Todd Pletcher. He won the 2019 GI Kentucky Derby via disqualification on Country House (Lookin at Lucky) for Bill Mott. That suggests that those trainers may give him a chance, but there's no way he can move into any of the top stables, push aside the regular New York riders and take over.
He will be in the top five in the standings in New York and maybe better. But there is no chance that he will dominate that circuit like he does in California. So is it better to be the fourth leading rider in New York or the No. 1 rider in California? One would think that the answer is the latter. Prat obviously disagrees.
Richard Mandella is Derby Bound
Hall of Fame trainer Richard Mandella has not started a horse in the Kentucky Derby since 2004. He's had five runners in the Derby over all and none have finished better than fifth. Neither of which is that surprising. Mandella is one of only a few top trainers that does not put a big emphasis on winning the Derby or other 3-year-old stakes. He likes to bring horses along slowly and many of his best runners have been four or older.
But that may be about to change.
Having never raced beyond seven furlongs, Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) had some questions to answer in Saturday's 1 1/16-miles GII San Felipe S. at Santa Anita. He answered them all and did so with authority, winning by 5 3/4 lengths. He may not be as talented as Life Is Good (Into Mischief), but he wins his races the same way. Forbidden Kingdom rockets out of the gate, runs away from the competition and has more than enough stamina to complete the job.
That may not be so easy to do at 1 1/4 miles, but Mandella is the perfect trainer to get the horse to relax and stretch his speed out another furlong and a half.
A win in the GI Santa Anita Derby and/or the Kentucky Derby would be huge for the sire, American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile). While he's gotten off to a good start as a sire, he still hasn't had that Grade I star dirt horse to put on his resume. With Forbidden Kingdom, that may about to change.
It's Ladies Day at the Hall of Fame
The nominations for the next class of the National Museum of Racing Hall of Fame came out last week and five of the six horses nominated were fillies. The sixth was a gelding.
That's something we might all have to get used to. Unless they are a gelding, you can't expect to get more than eight or nine career starts anymore out of a male horse who has the talent to be a Hall of Famer. They'll likely end their careers after their 3-year-old year and go stand at stud, not enough time to put together a career that includes enough starts and wins to be considered Hall of Fame worthy.
But most top fillies race, at least, until they are four. The two no-brainers on the Hall of Fame ballot are Beholder (Henny Hughes) and Tepin (Bernstein). Beholder ran 26 times and raced at six. Tepin raced 23 times and raced at five.
Since Curlin was inducted in 2014, Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is the only modern era, non-gelding male to get into the Hall of Fame. Whether or not a horse with a short campaign can make it into the Hall of Fame will be put to the test when Justify (Scat Daddy) becomes eligible. He raced only six times, but is, of course, a Triple Crown winner. All other Triple Crown winners are in the Hall of Fame. Justify will be eligible in 2024.
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