Kentucky Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

Terry Finley Talks OBS March, Next Start for Flightline On Writers’ Room

Shortly before purchasing eight horses on the first day of the OBS March Sale, West Point Thoroughbreds CEO Terry Finley joined the TDN Writers' Room presented by Keeneland Tuesday morning as the Green Group Guest of the Week to talk about the strength of the sales market, trying to find the perfect formula in analyzing and purchasing horses at auction, the latest with superstar Flightline (Tapit) and much more.

“There is no secret sauce, and we bring that up to prospective partners all the time, to acknowledge something that's obvious to all of us who have been in the game.” Finley said about buying sale horses. “There's a small segment of the group of horses that are going to be sold [this week] that, on the surface, are obvious. They put everything together–they pass the vet, they work really, really well. Those, you don't really have to think a whole lot about. But the vast majority of them are in the middle … Some consignors, if you see a :10 1/5 [furlong breeze] and know their history and the way they bring these horses to market, you know that might be very, very good. Then you see somebody else with a bevy of :9 4/5s and they have a horse breeze :10 2/5, that's a factor. You talk about the way they come away from the pole. There are some of them that don't come away from the eighth pole as quickly as they probably could have, so :10 2/5 on top of a good gallop-out is going to pick our heads up. You look at the way they've come out of the breezes and the way they're acting because they've got a lot of stress on them. There are so many things that come into play. It's a beautiful game, and you've always got to continue to improve your process.”

Finley was later asked for an update on undefeated supernova Flightline, who is three-for-three, with each performance more devastating than the next, but missed a planned start in Saturday's GII San Carlos S. Mar. 5 due to a strain in a hock.

“As much as everybody else, we'd love to run him more,” Finley said. “It's just the circumstances. He's not an unsound horse by any stretch. He just strained a hock and that took him out of training for three-and-a-half, four weeks, but he's back at the racetrack and he's just about ready to turn around and start galloping. We'll be there in New York on Belmont Stakes day for the Met Mile, and we can't wait. We'd love for it to be as solid a field as possible, because I think when he runs against those better horses and is successful, the aura around him continues to grow. It'll be a long, long wait between now and late in the day on Belmont day, but we just hope the wait is worth it. It's an honor to be associated with a horse like this. Anybody that buys horses and plays the game, they see the Justifys, the American Pharoahs and you dream about, 'What does that feel like?' I asked myself on a continuous basis, 'When is it going to be our time?' Horses do so much for us, and when you get one like this, it's a very, very special feeling. He could be one of the ones they talk about 100 years from now. And that just puts a smile on your face.”

Elsewhere on the show, which is also sponsored by Coolmore, West Point Thoroughbreds, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Owners and Breeders, Lane's End, Canterbury Park, XBTV and Legacy Bloodstock, the writers discussed the state of the GI Kentucky Derby trail, D. Wayne Lukas's decision to try filly Secret Oath (Arrogate) against males in the GI Arkansas Derby, Churchill running the GI Arlington Million card in Louisville this summer and more. Click here to watch the podcast; click here for the audio-only version or find it on Apple Podcasts or Spotify.

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Arlington Million Among 53 Stakes at Churchill Spring/Summer Meet

The Churchill Downs spring/summer, which will include an Arlington Million Day card transplanted from the shuttered Chicago racetrack, will offer a record 53 stakes races worth $20.37 million. The 44-day Spring Meet is highlighted by the $3-million GI Kentucky Derby May 7 and will run from Apr. 30-July 4.

With the coordination of Ellis Park and the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, Churchill will host a special Arlington Million Day Aug. 13. The card will feature four stakes cumulatively worth $2 million: the $1-million GI Arlington Million; $500,000 GI Beverly D. S.; $300,000 GII Secretariat S.; and $200,000 GIII Pucker Up S.

Other Arlington stakes to be run this year at Churchill are the $250,000 GIII Modesty S., $200,000 GIII ArlingtonS., $200,000 GIII Chicago S. and the listed $200,000 American Derby and $175,000 Hanshin S.

Eight of the 14 races on Kentucky Derby Day are stakes with purses totalling $7.16 million. In addition to the Derby, the first Saturday in May will showcase the $1-million GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic; $750,000 GI Churchill Downs S.; $750,000 GI Derby City Distaff; $500,000 GII Pat Day Mile; $500,000 GII American Turf; and the $160,000 Knicks Go Overnight S.

Churchill Downs will host the $1.25-million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks May 6. The seven stakes that day total $4.25 million: the Oaks; $750,000 GI La Troienne; $500,000 GII Alysheba S.; $500,000 GII Eight Belles S.; $500,000 GII Edgewood S.; $500,000 GII Twin Spires Turf Sprint S.; and the Modesty.

Churchill's closing weekend features the $750,000 GII Stephen Foster S. The 1 1/8-mile race anchors an eight-race stakes card July 2 that totals $2.33 million and includes the $350,000 GII Fleur de Lis S.; $350,000 GII Wise Dan S.; and American Derby.

Churchill's first condition book of scheduled races features $120,000 maiden races throughout the Spring Meet. Additionally, there will be a $250 bonus awarded to trainers whose starters finish fourth through last in all non-stakes races.

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The Week in Review: Classic Causeway Visually Impressive, but Still Light on Key Metrics

Sometimes when a film gets released, the reviews are great but box-office numbers are subpar. A rough parallel on the GI Kentucky Derby trail is when a prep race looks visually appealing, but the underlying metrics–final time, internal splits, speed figures, perceived quality of the field–give cause for pause when trying to assess just how good the performance actually was and what it will mean moving forward.

A case in point is Classic Causeway's GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby win Saturday. For the second straight stakes, this final-crop son of Giant's Causeway broke like a rocket and unleashed a grace-under-pressure wire job, kicking clear through the final furlong while wrapped up late by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr., before galloping out with gusto. The victory was emphatic and gave the impression this Brian Lynch-trained homebred for Kentucky West Racing (Patrick O'Keefe) and Clarke Cooper has yet to scrape the bottom of his stamina reserves.

Classic Causeway has been No. 1 on TDN's Derby Top 12 since Feb. 23, and barring unforeseen circumstances, that's where I plan to rank him next week, too. But he's hardly a universal consensus as the kingpin of the crop, and being so highly rated also means Classic Causeway is fair game to be subjected to scrutiny that lesser-ranked, work-in-progress Derby contenders don't have to endure in mid-March.

Purely from a “how he did it” perspective, there's plenty to like about Classic Causeway's Tampa Derby score. Just like in the Feb. 12 GIII Sam F. Davis S., this energetic chestnut speed-popped the gate like a Quarter Horse, and Ortiz let him range out to the six path before swooping down into the clubhouse bend to tighten the lateral gap by claiming lane two through the first turn.

Classic Causeway was then allowed to drift back out to the four path on the backstretch after an opening quarter of :23.67, but none of his tightly packed pursuers took Ortiz up on his gambit by edging up the wide-open rail (it was a drying-out track over which the innermost paths might have been boggier).

Although Classic Causeway led under pressure, the mid-race tempo wasn't hot. After a second quarter in :24.50 and a third in :25.01, the field approached the top of the lane with a three-wide Classic Causeway motoring along comfortably with every rival in his wake being scrubbed on to keep pace.

Wandering to the five path in upper stretch, Ortiz hand-urged Classic Causeway for another gear and the colt kicked on willingly, his white-blazed face and attentive ears in metronomic rhythm with his efficient stride.

Some judicious stick work at the eighth pole elicited yet another level of torque, and once it became clear no one else was in it to win it, Ortiz let his colt coast home (:25.22 fourth quarter and :6.50 final sixteenth) without further asking, winning by a 2 1/2-length margin that could have been bigger had Classic Causeway been roused for more.

But as impressive as the effort seemed while watching it unfold, the numbers-driven post-race perspective paints a less powerful picture of the victory.

Classic Causeway's final time for 1 1/16 miles was 1:44.90. Three races earlier, in that afternoon's only other race at that distance, older males in a Grade III stakes ran 1.37 seconds faster.

That comparatively slow clocking earned Classic Causeway a Beyer Speed Figure of 84, which represents a four-point regression off his 88 in the Sam F. Davis last month. That number is on par with the GII Rebel S. two weeks back at Oaklawn, which has been resoundingly panned as one of the weaker preps on this season's slate of Derby qualifiers.

In addition, being loose on the lead was a small plus on Saturday at Tampa. After a substantial rain soaking, the “good” track started out sealed before being opened up, and that afternoon's eight dirt races were won by three wire-to-wire leaders, three who vied for the lead, and two from farther off the tailgate.

Considering that speed is the universal bias in North American racing, such a pace profile is not really unusual. But it also brings up the legitimate question of whether Classic Causeway has been excelling over a surface that he absolutely relishes, and whether his undefeated sophomore season will continue when he races at another venue.

The “quality of competition” question is also germane. While Classic Causeway does, in fact, come out of one of the strongest Derby preps we've seen in a while (the Nov. 27 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.), that key race is now 3 1/2 months in his rear-view mirror, and the company he's been keeping at age three is a cut below the heavy hitters he faced at Churchill. In his two Tampa tries this winter, Classic Causeway has roughed up no other horses currently ranked within the TDN Top 12.

A glance at social media in the aftermath of the Tampa Derby yields no shortage of prognosticators pointing out that Classic Causeway's ability to wrest control from a bunch of double-digit longshots is not the same thing as going head-to-head against the likes of A-level blazer Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) or the battle-proven frontrunner Epicenter (Not This Time).

Again, these criticisms are all lobbed at Classic Causeway in the spirit of acknowledging that when you're ranked No. 1 in any endeavor, you go about life with a figurative target on your back.

A positive performance over nine furlongs (and it doesn't necessarily have to be a win) against tougher competition would make Classic Causeway a formidable foe heading to Louisville.

In that respect, it was refreshing to hear Sunday afternoon that Lynch hasn't been sipping from the less-is-more Kool-Aid punch bowl that some trainers indulge in every spring. There will be no two months of down time between the Tampa and Kentucky Derbies for Classic Causeway.

“It's eight weeks between now and the Derby,” Lynch told TVG's Andie Biancone. “I'd seriously consider the [GI Toyota] Blue Grass [S. at Keeneland Apr. 9]. I don't know if I can sit on him that long without getting a race in him. I think a mile-and-an-eighth race a month out from a mile-and-a-quarter race would be a pretty good way to take one in.”

Asked what impressed him the most about his colt, Lynch said, “Just the want-to that he has in his running style. He just looks so comfortable. He seems to be loving his job at the moment. He just seems to be a really happy horse who's bred to run and he loves to do it.”

And that stout gallop-out after the wire?

“That was something that we were looking at, too,” Lynch said. “Irad sort of geared him down, and when he geared him down he jumped up into the bridle and it was a powerful gallop-out. It always gives you hope that he can run on.”

There's not much arguing that Classic Causeway is strong on visuals but light on numbers. That combination can only carry a colt so far along the Derby trail. We'll just have to sit back and watch the movie a bit longer to see how the plot thickens as the cadence quickens.

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Secret Oath Confirmed for Arkansas Derby

Briland Farm's Secret Oath (Arrogate), who soundly defeated fillies to win the Feb. 26 GIII Honeybee S., will take on the boys in the Apr. 2 $1.25-million GI Arkansas Derby, trainer D. Wayne Lukas confirmed Sunday.

“We don't make these decisions, meaning the owners and myself, we don't make these decisions easily,” Lukas said. “We consider all the things. First of all, you want to absolutely think that you are as good as any of the other 3-year-olds that might show up and you don't really know who is going to show up. And then second, you consider that she's here at home. If you're going to step out of the box, that's probably a good spot to do it. She's been successful on this racetrack. The third thing is a $1.25 million is probably the most attractive purse she'll ever run for. I was thinking the other day that it will be hard to imagine she's going to run for a bigger one, expect in the Breeders' Cup. So, we factored that in.”

Owner Robert Mitchell added, “Wayne and I talked about it before the Honeybee. We wanted to see what her performance looked like in the Honeybee and we wanted to see what the Rebel looked like and then we wanted to see kind of how she did in her first workout after the Honeybee. We feel like we ought to give her a chance to run against the boys and see how that goes. That's kind of how we thought about it.”

Secret Oath worked four furlongs in :48.40 (2/22) Mar. 8 at Oaklawn.

Following the Arkansas Derby, the plan for Secret Oath would still likely be a start back against her own sex in the GI Kentucky Oaks May 6 at Churchill Downs.

“I've got the Oaks, anyhow,” Lukas said. “That's where I'm going. We have no plan to run in the Derby now. That's not chiseled in stone, either, but that's the way the Mitchells feel. They don't want to run in a 20-horse field. They feel like the Oaks is every bit as prestigious.”

With Secret Oath heading for the Arkansas Derby, stablemate Ethereal Road (Quality Road), second in the Feb. 26 GII Rebel S., will be rerouted to the Apr. 9 GI Toyota Blue Grass S.

In other news from the sophomore division at Oaklawn Park, We The People (Constitution), tabbed a 'TDN Rising Star' following his allowance win in Arkansas Saturday, will now be aimed at a Kentucky Derby prep race, according to trainer Rodolphe Brisset.

“That was the whole plan, be able to gain some seasoning, some experience,” Brisset said. “He broke maybe a step slower than last time and then he didn't make the lead. But Flo [Geroux] got him into the race pretty good and let him do his thing. He didn't use the whip, got him to work through the wire and even an extra sixteenth. Now, we're going to see how he came out of it this morning and the next couple of days we'll have to make some plans, I guess.”

Among the possible targets for We The People are the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass, but Brisset didn't rule out the Apr. 9 GI Santa Anita Derby or GII Wood Memorial.

All four 1 1/8-mile races will offer 170 points (100-40-20-10) to their top four finishers toward starting eligibility for the May 7 Kentucky Derby. We the People likely would need a top two finish to secure a spot in the Kentucky Derby, which is limited to 20 starters.

“Oaklawn's right in the middle, so we can go left or we can go right,” Brisset said. “But I think we're going to let the horse tell us. Three weeks to the Arkansas Derby can be a little tricky, but after that we've got five weeks for the big one if he does run 1-2. The four weeks, four weeks is not a bad thing, either, for the Blue Grass. Now, we have to ship him back home. He knows the track there.”

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