Kentucky Derby | Horse Racing Free Tips

Churchill Unveils New Derby Day Multi-Race Wagers

As part of its wagering menu for Kentucky Derby day May 7, Churchill Downs will offer an 'All 3-Year-Old' Pick 3 and an all-dirt Pick 5 wager, both of which close with the Run for the Roses.

The 3-year-old Pick 3 will have a minimum $3 stake and includes the $500,000 GII American Turf and the GII Pat Day Mile before concluding with the Derby. Like all rolling 50-cent Pick 3s, the wager will have a 22% takeout.

An all-dirt, all-stakes Pick 5 will have a 50-cent minimum and 15% takeout while including the $160,000 Knicks Go S., the $750,000 GI Derby City Distaff, the $750,000 GI Churchill Downs S., the Pat Day Mile and the Derby.

Along with the track's jackpot bet, the Derby City 6, Churchill will once again offer the two-day Oaks/Derby Pick 6 with a $2 minimum (2019 handle $479,561). The wager begins on Friday, May 6 with the $750,000 GI La Troienne S. and the $1.25-million GI Longines Kentucky Oaks before concluding on Saturday with the Derby City Distaff, Churchill Downs S., the $1-million GI Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic and the Derby.

There will be four traditional Pick 5 and Pick 4 wagers on Kentucky Derby Day. The third Pick 5 (2019 handle: $3,980,809) and third Pick 4 (2019 handle: $4,091,771) will feature an all-stakes sequence and culminate in the Derby.

Superfecta wagers will be a $1 minimum on Kentucky Derby and Oaks days but will be a 10-cent minimum on all other days.

For the full wagering menu and post times, click here.

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Taking Stock: Mo Donegal Has Character of Crawford

Affable Iowan Jerry Crawford, a longtime client of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, runs the successful racing partnership Donegal Racing, which was established in 2008 with the specific goal of winning the Gl Kentucky Derby. That may have sounded like wishful thinking at the time, but Crawford's stable has made it to Louisville on average every three years or so, with live runners, and with horses that haven't been purchased for exorbitant sums: Paddy O'Prado (El Prado {Ire}), a $105,000 Keeneland September purchase and among the first yearlings bought by the fledgling stable, was third in 2010; Dullahan (Even the Score), a $250,000 Keeneland September buy, was third in 2012; and Keen Ice (Curlin), who was purchased for $120,000 at Keeneland September, was seventh in 2015.

Despite Derby losses, all three nevertheless became Grade l winners at 10 furlongs, which is what the meticulous Crawford seeks in prospective yearling purchases; simply put, he's not interested in yearlings that could potentially become stakes winners at sprint and mile distances, and he's passed on several that have gone on to do so in order to find ones that can get the Derby trip.

That's the ethos that defines Crawford, and he's back to the Derby this year with another serious contender in Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), the Gll Wood Memorial winner who was purchased for $250,000 at Keeneland September. Like the others noted above, Mo Donegal is bred for the distance and appears to be peaking at the right time for trainer Todd Pletcher.

It just so happens that come-from-behind types, or at least horses that come mid-pack from off the pace, happen to characterize the Donegal runners. You won't find Donegal silks on the front end or attending the pace from the get-go. Mo Donegal runs from off the pace. It's how Paddy O'Prado, Dullahan and Keen Ice ran. It's how Grade l winner Finnegan's Wake (Powerscourt {GB}), a rare Crawford homebred, ran. The same is true for Donegal Grade l winners Arklow (Arch) and Carrick (Giant's Causeway). Donegal's Gll Remsen S. winner O'Prado Again came from off the pace in 2011 to win the same race in the same style that Mo Donegal did last year.

The Remsen at nine furlongs late in the year is as far as 2-year-olds are asked to race in this country, and it's a race suited for horses with stamina. Unfortunately, the winners of this race are asked to come back as early 3-year-olds on the Classics trail in shorter races against faster horses, and this doesn't suit all of them. Frequently some go wrong after cutting back in distance, while others get injured. O'Prado Again, for example, was on the shelf for 10 months after his Remsen.

Coolmore America's young stallion Mo Town (Uncle Mo), who is bred similarly to Mo Donegal (both are out of A.P. Indy-line mares), won the Remsen in 2016 but never got back on track until late at three, when he won the Gl Hollywood Derby at Del Mar in November.

Darby Dan's Modernist, who like Mo Town is from a Bernardini mare, won his first stakes race at three, the Gll Risen Star S. at nine furlongs, and his second, the Glll Excelsior, at four. Current Derby contender Un Ojo, who is by the late Uncle Mo horse Laoban from an A.P. Indy mare, won his first and only stakes race at three this year, the Gll Rebel S.

Recently, Jerry and I had a discussion about Mo Donegal's pedigree and its aptitude for stamina and later development, after he'd read an article that suggested Mo Donegal had more speed in his makeup than what he's shown on the track. With Jerry's permission, I'm reproducing here my unedited email response to him, which came after Mo Donegal's rallying third-place finish in the Glll Holy Bull S. at Gulfstream over 1 1/16 miles.

I wrote: “It's a very positive piece, obviously. Your horse is training well, and if there were ever a year to get the Derby, this is it. However, when Uncle Mo and AP Indy are crossed in pedigrees, what usually results is more of a stamina horse than a speed horse; that means a horse that could win at 2, but late in the year, and this is what Mo Donegal showed. Moreover, winning the Remsen at 2 demonstrated his stamina, because 9F at 2 is as far as horses that age run in the US.

“In my opinion, he actually shows more stamina at this stage of his career than what's optimum for him, and when you cut back to 1 1/6 miles at 3, it was too sharp for him. However, White Abarrio and Simplification have proven to be good horses, and likewise, the two that beat Zandon are the same, which points to a lot of class. The danger, as I pointed out years ago to you after winning the Remsen with O'Prado Again, is keeping these types sound enough to make the Derby.

“Country Grammer is a good example. He, too, won at 9F at 2, but he came back at 3 at 1 1/6 and finished off the board. It took too much from him, and he didn't win his first stakes race until the summer, and at 4 he won his first GI at 10F.

“Mo Town, bred on same cross as Mo Donegal, also was a late 2yo winner at 8F, then won the Remsen at 9F. He was 5th in the Risen Star at 3 in his debut at 3. He didn't win his first GI race until the Hollywood Derby late at 3.

“I think Mo Donegal fits the profile of these types, but if he can get into the Derby, he will have a great chance this year. However, his best should come in the second half of the year and at 4.”

Pedigree

Coolmore America's Uncle Mo is one of the best stallions in the country. Trained by Todd Pletcher, he was a man among boys at two, both physically and by racing performance, winning all three starts impressively. Injury and illness abbreviated his 3-year-old campaign, but he certainly has enough stamina markers in his pedigree–his dam was sired by Arch–to stay 10 furlongs on paper.

Of course, it's not a theoretical exercise anymore; he sired a Derby winner in his first crop in Nyquist, whose dam was by the fast Forestry and came from a family that produced a lot of speedy types, even by sires with stamina, and this underscores the stamina that Uncle Mo frequently imparts.

Mo Donegal's dam is Callingmissbrown, a Pulpit mare who won two of her four starts, both from off the pace at sprint distances.

Combining Uncle Mo and A.P. Indy, in this case through Pulpit, adds a fair bit of stamina to this pedigree, as noted earlier, but the female family itself contains more stamina within it as the pedigree unfolds. Callingmissbrown's dam is Gl Acorn S. winner Island Sand, a daughter of Gl Preakness and Belmont S. winner Tabasco Cat. Island Sand also won the Gll Delaware H. at 10 furlongs and was second in the Gl Kentucky Oaks. The next dam is by Travers winner Forty Niner, and the fourth dam, by Nureyev, produced Niigon, a colt who won the Queen's Plate at 10 furlongs.

This is the type of pedigree that Crawford mines, and it looks like he's hit another mother lode with Mo Donegal, who, true to the Crawford form, will be running late in the Derby. Hopefully for him, it will be in time to win the race he's been seeking.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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TDN Kentucky Derby Top 20 for Apr. 26

These rankings are in “likeliest winner” order, and they are different from the points leaderboard Churchill Downs uses to determine starting berths. Access that list here. The GI Kentucky Derby can have a field of 20 with four also-eligibles.

1) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 4-2-1-1, $713,000. Last Start: 1st GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 114.

Right after the final nine-furlong preps were complete, I felt certain bettors would gravitate toward Zandon (Upstart) rather than Epicenter (Not This Time) as the Derby favorite. Now I'm not so sure. My rationale was that the wagering public tends to be all over visually impressive horses who win in dramatic fashion, especially if the effort is fresh in the public's mind (recency bias). Although that scenario describes this athletic $170,000 KEESEP colt's narrative, the price on the more seasoned Epicenter is likely to be skewed downward by the annual betting/hedging endeavor by furniture magnate Jim “Mattress Mack” McIngvale, who has pledged to plunk down between $3 and 4 million on this year's Derby favorite.

Last year in a similar promotion, McIngvale was responsible for 25% of the win pool on the (losing) Derby favorite, and it is plausible that his own series of bets are what will make the difference in establishing which of the even-matched colts goes off as the chalk. Writing for Horse Racing Nation, Travis Stone, the Churchill Downs announcer (who has experience as a respected morning-line oddsmaker), summed it up like this: “It's hard to imagine someone being a market mover in the biggest pools of the year, but [McIngvale] is. So given the Mack factor, I believe Epicenter must be lowered to 3-1 [favoritism]. I was tempted to go 5-2, the same odds that Essential Quality closed at last year, but the competitiveness of Epicenter's main rivals caused hesitation.” That's good news if you like Zandon–it presents the rare opportunity to back the most likely Derby winner at odds a touch above his true chances of winning.

2) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-4-1-0, $1,010,639. Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby. KY Derby Points: 164.

Epicenter has only lost once within the past six months, and that January defeat in the GIII Lecomte S. foretold quite a bit about his even-keeled character and understatedly powerful makeup. He forced the issue on the front end, swatted back a wall of horses at the top of the lane, repulsed a prolonged bid from the favorite through the length of the Fair Grounds stretch, then got nailed the wire by a fresh 28-1 shot before quickly surging back in front several jumps after the finish.

In two subsequent Grade II starts over increasing distances, this $260,000 KEESEP colt by Not This Time has fine-tuned the flow of his races, showing he is confident controlling the tempo without necessarily needing the lead. His ability to be a focused, committed presence through fast splits while still having plenty left to fight off challengers late is something no other horse on this list has mastered over such a broad body of work.

But at what price are you willing to find out if Epicenter's consistency holds true in the 20-horse Derby? As discussed in Zandon's write-up above, the potential exists for the favorite's odds to be pari-mutuelly depressed. So the question of bettability could come down to whether you will accept 3-1 odds on a horse who more realistically figures to be a 5-1 proposition.

3) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-0-2, $621,800. Last Start: 1st GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 112.

Your opinion on Mo Donegal ($250,000 KEESEP) in the Derby might come down to whether you think he's the type of horse who routinely “finds” trouble or if he's just consistently unlucky and always seems to be needing to extricate himself from disadvantageous positioning. The truth is probably a little bit of both. And to his credit, this Uncle Mo colt does have a knack for snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Irad Ortiz, Jr. will be back in the irons for the Derby (after Joel Rosario opted to stick with Epicenter). Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told Jennie Rees in a Kentucky HBPA video interview that that partnership will be a big plus in a crowded field.

“Obviously, you've got to be worried about traffic. I'm thrilled that we have Irad,” he said. “If anybody can find a couple of seams, which we'll need to be successful, I think Irad's the person. We've had a lot of 'freight-train' horses–Arklow for example–where you couldn't afford to let the horse get stopped. This horse is a little more athletic; a little more agile. We saw that in the [GII] Wood [Memorial S.], where he went in and he came out pretty effortlessly without losing any momentum. That's an important asset, too, I think, in the Derby.”

4) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-2-0, $549,810. Last Start: 2nd GI Toyota Blue Grass S. KY Derby Points: 70.

Smile Happy's stock has tailed off a bit, but I sense he's going emerge as a “wiseguy” horse as we get closer to Derby day. As a juvenile he was 2-for-2 with a pair of eye-catching far-turn moves to mow down the competition, and this 'TDN Rising Star' was rated No. 1 on this list back in early February. But when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) waited too long when trying to rate off the pace behind Epicenter in the GII Risen Star S., and then got tired on the lead when Zandon ran him down in the deep stretch GI Blue Grass S., it took a little shine off his status.

The fact that Smile Happy hasn't won in five months doesn't seem to ruffle trainer Kenny McPeek, who has consistently underscored that he wants a Derby contender who will also be fresh for the GI Preakness S., too. Smile Happy closed at 8-1 odds in each of the first three Kentucky Derby Future Wager pools, then at 6-1 in Pool 4 and 9-1 in Pool 5. His overall chances haven't been too badly blemished. But now it's likely he'll go off at 12-1 or better in the Derby itself, significantly higher than how bettors projected his chances through the winter and spring.

5) TIZ THE BOMB (c, Hit It a Bomb–Tiz the Key, by Tiznow) O-Magdalena Racing, Lessee. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales History: $330,000 Ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 8-5-1-0, $1,044,401. Last Start: 1st GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks, TP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 110.

This $330,000 FTKSEL colt by Hit It a Bomb could be the juiciest overlay in this year's Derby. While the handicapping world grapples with whether or not he'll adapt to dirt based on one poor showing off a three-month layoff at Gulfstream, I'll take my chances that Tiz the Bomb will, at the very least, outrun inflated odds based on his portfolio of eight races, proven ability to negotiate large fields, and versatility in running style. He's won stakes in fields numbering 10, 12 (twice) and 14 horses, and he's scored on the lead, stalking, and rating from well back. Trainer Kenny McPeek has said he wants Tiz the Bomb closer to the pace in the Derby in an effort to avoid traffic. I won't try to make the case that he's as dominant as some of the proven dirt contenders–that's not the case. But the price on this Grade II grass and Grade III Tapeta winner is likely to drift upward relatively unchecked by the betting public.

6) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-3-1-2, $515,350. Last Start: 3rd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 74.

If you had the foresight to bet Not This Time in the Derby Sire Future Wager that closed way back on Thanksgiving weekend, you're now holding a 23-1 ticket that gets you both the likely starting fave, Epicenter, and the well-regarded Simplification. Both were just MSW winners at the time of that bet. Although he finished third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby, this colt ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) ran a losing race that resonates better than the efforts of the two rivals who beat him, chiefly because Simplification got embroiled in two separate speed skirmishes that he won at the expense of losing the overall battle. He has five 90+ Beyer performances, and the only two races that Simplification didn't attain that number were in his career debut and in a Nov. 13 sprint in which he bashed his head on the starting gate and required surgical staples to close the wound. Jose Ortiz will retain the mount on Simplification in the Derby, having made the commitment last week even though he starting status of Ortiz's other possible Derby mount, Early Voting, is still in limbo.

7) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 6-3-3-0, $435,600. Last Start: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

Although Messier has been trained by Tim Yakteen for the past month, the Derby foundation for this 'TDN Rising Star' was laid down by now-suspended trainer Bob Baffert. And there was something different about how Messier was aimed for the Apr. 9 GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby that is worth considering in light of his slightly disappointing second-place effort.

Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies. But every one of those winning horses made his last start in March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert-prepared sophomore. Through the prism of that out-of-the-ordinary angle, you can make the case that this $470,000 FTKSEL colt actually ran pretty well considering he was likely not wound too tightly for that Apr. 9 prep. Yes, he still lost to a just-graduated maiden stablemate. But Messier vied with the favored pacemaker and hung in for most of the stretch run when challenged anew. As preps go, that effort is now becoming more likeable the farther away it gets in the rear-view mirror.

8) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $321,500. Last Start: 2nd GII Wood Memorial S. KY Derby Points: 50.

Early Voting remains the highest-ranked contender whose connections have yet to fully commit to a start in the Derby. This $200,000 KEESEP colt projects to be a part of the Derby pace, and his Wood Memorial near-miss was notable for holding well against the more experienced Mo Donegal after setting a spirited tempo. He's 2-for-3 with only a neck loss to the No. 3 horse on this list, and his ascending Beyer pattern (76, 87, 96) allows for room to improve based on a pedigree that suggests 10 furlongs is within his grasp.

9) BARBER ROAD (c, Race Day–Encounter, by Southern Image) O-WSS Racing, LLC. B-Susan Forrester & Judy Curry (KY). T-John Alexander Ortiz. Sales History: $15,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GISP, 8-2-3-1, $650,720. Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby. KY Derby Points: 58.

A number of Derby-aspiring horse owners have unrealistic expectations. Bill Simon, who bought this Race Day gray for a bargain $15,000 as a KEENOV weanling, isn't among them. “I know a lot of people say that it's been their dream,” to win the Derby, Simon told TDN's Katie Petrunyak last week. “It honestly wasn't a dream for us because we never imagined that we could do it.”

Barber Road nearly always outruns his odds despite routinely encountering trip trouble, or losing a shoe like he did when second in the GI Arkansas Derby.

“He could have won any one of those,” Simon said. “More importantly, he thinks he won every time because he gallops out ahead in every single race so he comes back all happy. Through all his works and races, he's never been tired… I don't know what's going to happen, but I can promise that at the end of the race he's going to be running as hard as he can and he'll be moving forward.”

10) CHARGE IT (c, Tapit–I'll Take Charge, by Indian Charlie) 'TDN Rising Star' O/B-Whisper Hill Farm (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Lifetime Record: GISP, 3-1-1-0, $230,400. Last Start: 2nd GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 40.

This Whisper Hill Farm homebred by Tapit earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors in his mile MSW win, then ran a very credible second despite some greenness through the lane in the Florida Derby. But it's still a big ask for this colt to step up against far more seasoned competition over 10 furlongs in the Kentucky Derby, and a bet on Charge It pulling off the upset rides strictly on what you guess he might be capable of delivering, as opposed to anything concrete in his three-race past-performance block. Trainer Todd Pletcher has cited Charge It's good disposition, the fact that he's training well, and his impeccable breeding to cover a distance of ground as positives heading toward May 7.

11) TAIBA (c, Gun Runner–Needmore Flattery, by Flatter) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Zedan Racing Stables Inc. B-Bruce C Ryan (KY). T-Tim Yakteen. Sales History: $140,000 Ylg '20 FTKOCT; $1,700,000 2yo '21 FTFMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 2-2-0-0, $490,200. Last Start: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 100.

Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman broke the news over the weekend that Taiba will have only one published workout between his Runhappy Santa Anita Derby win and the Kentucky Derby, with “strong gallops” instead comprising the bulk of his training. It's yet another against-the-grain angle as this 'TDN Rising Star' attempts to defy convention by winning the first leg of the Triple Crown off of two blistering triple-digit Beyer wins in a career arc that dates only to Mar. 5.

Taiba benefitted from his stablemate Messier doing the dirty work to crack the pacemaker in the Santa Anita Derby, but this son of Gun Runner ($140,000 FTKOCT; $1.7 million FTFMAR) was very much into the bridle and relentless in his pursuit of that more seasoned rival the entire length of the stretch. Too much hype and not enough experience? Probably. But the wild-card nature of Taiba's meteoric rise will be one of the most compelling story lines in this year's Derby.

12) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC & La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-0-1, $823,650. Last Start: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby. KY Derby Points: 112.

This Race Day gray ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has only lost once from four starts. He enjoyed clear sailing in his two graded stakes scores over his home court at Gulfstream, racking up 97 (GIII Holy Bull S.) and 96 Beyers (Florida Derby). He was also third in the most meaningful juvenile prep race from last autumn (GII Kentucky Jockey Club S.). A legit concern is the tepid final furlong from the Florida Derby. The :14.09 clocking was the second-slowest final eighth among all nine-furlong preps in 2021-22, and White Abarrio won't be afforded a similarly lethargic late-race stretch run in the Kentucky Derby.

13) Zozos (Munnings): Zozos hasn't gotten out much in the afternoons (just three races). But he keeps good company. The runner-up and third-place horse from his Jan. 23 MSW score both won their next starts. His Feb. 11 allowance victory yielded a next-out winner among the also-rans. And the stakes debut of this 'TDN Rising Star' in the GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby equated to a decent second-place showing behind Epicenter. But his relative inexperience, six weeks between starts, and sprint-slanted pedigree might be too much for Zozos to overcome at 10 furlongs.

Zozos | Coady Photo

14) Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway): Three weeks after an inexplicably poor last-place showing in the Florida Derby in which this former No. 1-ranked colt faltered badly on the front end, trainer Brian Lynch on Monday declared Classic Causeway back in the Derby, citing a desire to “put a line through that race” and “roll the dice.” This homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper had previously wired both the GIII Davis S. and the GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, but earned soft Beyers in each (88 for the Davis, and his original 84 for the Tampa Derby has since been readjusted to an 86). “I looked for every excuse not to run him in there after he threw craps at the Gulfstream race,” Lynch told Horse Racing Nation. “I've got two old boys between them with 160 years of living. Their dream has been to run in the Kentucky Derby. I argued and tried to make a case for not running. After watching him work the other day and seeing how he had come out of it, I guess the horse deserves a chance to run.”

15) Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}): Christophe Lemaire has been dominant riding in Japan since switching his tack there full-time five years ago, and he'll partner with the Japan-based GII UAE Derby victor in Louisville for the first time. He figures to seek a stalking trip, and Crown Pride has more experience than most Stateside horses in negotiating sizable fields. Japan-based horses have gone 0-for-3 in the Derby; winners of the UAE Derby are 0-for-11.

16) Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile): Can you name the only horse ever to parlay wins in the GIII Lexington S. and Kentucky Derby? That would be Charismatic. He was 31-1 when he won the 1999 Derby, and this $430,000 KEESEP colt will likely go off higher than that when he attempts the same feat this year. But long Derby odds are nothing new for owner Peachtree Stable, whose colors were carried by Invisible Ink to a 55-1 second in the 2001 Derby. Tawny Port is a little light speed figures-wise, having earned a 90 Beyer only once from three Tapeta tries and a pair of dirt races that clocked in at 86 and 89.

17) Cyberknife (Gun Runner): This high-energy $400,000 FTKSEL colt won his qualifying points against a subpar group in the Arkansas Derby by barreling through the pack and swerving through the lane. Cyberknife's overall body of work and career-best 92 Beyer don't leap off the past-performance page screaming, “Bet me!” But he's improving at the right time, and maturity might add some swagger and polish to his reputation as a hard-to-handle horse.

18) Un Ojo (Laoban): This gelding is parked pretty far down the likely to win list. But the reality is Un Ojo should be able to drop back, save ground, and start picking off stragglers who are spent by the far turn. Exactly how many horses this one-eyed New York-bred ends up passing is what's up for debate. Un Ojo would need to run the race of his life while a slew of better credentialed contenders all fail to fire in order to end up draped in a blanket of roses. That's not very plausible based on his past performances–but it's exactly how perceived no-hopers Mine That Bird and Giacomo orchestrated 50-1 upsets in 2009 and 2005.

19) Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front): He's fast, but can he last? Late Triple Crown supplement and three-time auction entrant ($25,000 KEENOV; $14,000 RNA at KEESEP; $169,743 ARQDEA) led for as long as he could in the G2 UAE Derby. But this six-time sprinter will have to deal with markedly ramped-up early pressure at Churchill with multiple waves of closers coming from behind. Mickael Barzalona will again be aboard in Louisville.

20) Happy Jack (Oxbow): Pie-in-the-sky longshots have always been a part of Derby lore. In this qualifying-points era, a colt like Happy Jack gets in on the basis of a distant third in a short-field Grade I stakes. An RNA at KEENOV, this colt won sprinting at first asking at 24-1 odds while racing on Lasix and has been beaten an aggregate 49 1/2 lengths in three subsequent non-Lasix stakes routes.

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The Week in Review: Derby Dynamics Reflect Changing Times

It's long been an appealing part of American lore how the GI Kentucky Derby is unique compared to every other race run during the year. The emphasis has traditionally been on young horses getting exactly one chance to run a distance they've never before attempted, against the largest field they'll likely ever encounter; in front of the biggest on-track crowd they'll ever experience.

But the 21st Century has gradually added dynamics to the Derby's legacy that have shaped the race in ways that could not have been fathomed even one generation ago.

A qualifying points system now determines starting berths, essentially rewriting the game plan for training Derby aspirants. Starting spots are reserved for foreign horses in an effort to globally grow Derby betting. Two of the past three Derbies have involved interference or drug disqualifications of the first horses across the finish wire, ensnarling “the most exciting two minutes in sports” in months of litigation. This year the gaming corporation that controls the Derby has barred the winningest trainer in the history of the race, although swift action related to a series of related appeals in the courts has kept that issue from dominating the Derby's news cycle.

We also have an unprecedented lull in the action, with this year being the first to feature four weeks between the final important weekend of nine-furlong preps and the Derby itself.

That spacing got changed when Oaklawn Park readjusted its 2022 prep schedule by moving back the date of its premier stakes, the GI Arkansas Derby, so it sat five weeks out from the first Saturday in May instead of the more familiar three.

You can't use one single year as a measuring stick. But the entire sophomore series at Oaklawn this season shook out as the weakest prep path to Louisville, with only three longshot contenders likely for the Kentucky Derby. The bigger question moving forward will be whether or not some enterprising track will juggle its own prep race spacing for '23 to claim the mid-April spot vacated by Oaklawn.

It's true that the “less is more” approach to training dovetails better with the four-week placement of the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes. Yet the Saturday exactly three weeks out from the Derby still has untapped potential as prime real estate on the calendar in the context of being the last chance to earn serious qualifying points.

Right now Aqueduct, Keeneland and Santa Anita all stack up against each other on the same four-weeks-out date. They all offer the same-distance race for the same amount of Derby points, with the only difference being that the Wood Memorial S. is a Grade II instead of the Grade I offered by the Santa Anita Derby and Blue Grass S.

At some level, wouldn't it behoove one of those tracks to break with convention and lay claim to being the theoretical “only game in town” on a standalone Saturday without having to compete against the other two for entrants and the attention of the betting public?

This year the Wood, Blue Grass and Santa Anita Derby all went off within roughly the same hour on Apr. 9. The very next Saturday was fairly light on the national landscape, yet the GIII Stonestreet Lexington S. at Keeneland attracted 11 sophomores who were chasing coveted Derby qualifying points.

No matter that the Lexington was a relatively short race at 1 1/16 miles featuring only 20 points to the victor. Those were still crucial points for horses on the cusp of being in or out, and the Lexington was compelling this year because of it being a last-gasp chance to make it to Louisville.

The qualifying points system isn't perfect. But one of its most intriguing, baked-in advantages is that the closer you get to the date of the Derby itself, the more riveting the quest for points becomes. In that respect, it seems almost wasteful not to be leveraging that drama right up until the three-week mark before the race.

Another small step for Oregon

On Thursday, TDN reported on the glimmer of hope that exists to revitalize racing at Grants Pass Downs in southern Oregon.

Later that same evening, the plans took another small but important step forward when the Southern Oregon Horse Racing Association (SOHRA) was resurrected after two years of dormancy.

The idea is for the Oregon Horsemen's Benevolent and Protective Association (OHBPA) to fund the eventual return of an extended meet at Grants Pass, while SOHRA steps in as an experienced recent license-holder to help keep the state's most suitable track for training open this spring and summer while possibly hosting the formerly traditional fairs meet at Grants Pass in June/July.

Four other mixed-meet fairs tracks run in Oregon. But they were all put in jeopardy earlier this month when the linchpin of the circuit–35 days of commercial-meet racing at Grants Pass–got severed in the wake of the Oregon Racing Commission (ORC)'s vote to deny a gaming license to the track.

That ORC decision was based on a Department of Justice opinion that called the project unconstitutional because of the way the state's gambling laws are set up and it came after investor Travis Boersma spent $35 million over the last two years overhauling Grants Pass Downs and building a facility to house historical horse racing machines there.

Without Grants Pass up and functional, the horses have nowhere to train for the fairs.

According to the Grants Pass Daily Courier, about 50 trainers and owners crowded into a backstretch meeting Apr. 21, and the first order of SOHRA business was bringing back Rod Lowe, who previously oversaw SOHRA when the organization hosted the Josephine County Fair dates at Grants Pass Downs between 2013-19.

Asked why he was coming back to head the longshot revival of Oregon racing, Lowe drew applause when he said, “Because I love the sport, I love the industry. And I love Grants Pass Downs.”

The Daily Courier said the next important deadline will be Tuesday, which is when the OHBPA will find out if it's able to buy the heavy equipment (starting gate, tractors, horse ambulance, etc…) that Boersma wants liquidated.

Win machine on the move

Greeley and Ben (Greeley's Conquest), who tied for second-winningest horse in North America in 2021 with 11 trips to the winner's circle, won his fourth race of '22 on Sunday at Oaklawn Park. The strapping 8-year-old has now won 15 of his last 20 starts and 20 of 32 lifetime.

That's an impressive run for a gelding who was claimed for $10,000 a little over a year ago.

Since being owned and trained by Karl Broberg (End Zone Athletics), Greeley and Ben has blossomed into a three-time stakes winner who has bankrolled roughly 45 times his claim price in purses.

Dropping from Grade III sprint company into a $62,500 optional-claimer/NW3L allowance Sunday, Greeley and Ben was bet down to 2-5 favoritism. He pressed the pace and edged clear to win by 1 1/4 lengths, but was claimed by trainer Melton Wilson on behalf of owner Thaddeus Wier, Jr.

Somewhat surprisingly, Greeley and Ben isn't the continent's victory leader so far in '22: Exit Right (Effinex) is 5-for-5 at Parx and Aqueduct. Beverly Park (Munnings) is 5-for-12 (yes, a dozen starts through mid-April) with wins at Charles Town, Laurel and Mahoning Valley.

The post The Week in Review: Derby Dynamics Reflect Changing Times appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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