Kentucky Derby Top 12 | Horse Racing Free Tips

TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22

We now enter the demanding segment of the GI Kentucky Derby prep schedule when most of the important stakes stretch to nine furlongs and are worth 100 qualifying points to the winners. This Saturday's GII Louisiana Derby is the focal point of the weekend, and it's also the lone 1 3/16-mile prep in North America.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: MGSW & GISP, 5-3-1-1, $511,100. Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 66.

In the aftermath of Classic Causeway's grace-under-pressure wiring of the GII Tampa Bay Derby, there was general consensus that his victory was visually impressive even though it yielded a subpar Beyer Speed Figure of 84 (a four-point regression off his previous stakes win). That juxtaposition makes it difficult to peg whether this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper is the real deal, Derby-wise, and it also splits his supporters and detractors along the “numbers don't lie” and “figures can't quantify everything” fault line.

I'll argue for the latter point. Factor in a drying-out track, a backstretch headwind, and Classic Causeway's geared-down run to the finish, and you can make a cogent case that quirky conditions contributed to that low number. Take a look at No. 10-ranked Early Voting's write-up below, and you'll see how the Beyer figurators (as they should when offbeat numbers merit a second look) significantly upgraded that colt's preliminary Beyer after taking into account how other horses ran back in their next-out races. Making speed figures is more of an art than a science, and Classic Causeway isn't going to be regarded as a non-threat in the GI Blue Grass S. on the basis of one on-paper blip in his past-performance block. You want a stat that confuses the overall equation even more? Consider that Classic Causeway's final sixteenth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. in :5.98 still rates as the only sub-six-seconds clocking among the 2021-22 Derby preps at 1 1/16 miles, indicating this frontrunner is capable of finishing as well as he rockets out of the gate.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY).
T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW,
3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

As of this past weekend, trainer Kenny McPeek was still on the fence between the GI Curlin Florida Derby Apr. 2 and the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. one week later for 'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy. Remaining at Gulfstream (where Smile Happy has been training) throws this colt into a fight against three other Top 12 contenders, while opting for Keeneland sets up a highly anticipated showdown against No. 1-rated Classic Causeway. That pairing would be a rematch of their one-two finish in the Nov. 27 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., when this son of Runhappy ($175,000 KEENOV; $185,000 FTKSEL) unleashed a devastating demonstration of deep-stretch torque to win at will over what has proven to be a deep field of late-season juveniles.

Regardless of where he goes, every handicapper on the planet is going to be factoring in that Smile Happy wasn't fully cranked for his sophomore debut at Fair Grounds, when he rallied belatedly for second in the GII Risen Star S. after suffering momentum losses on the far turn and in upper stretch. Although Smile Happy is light on actual experience (just three races), McPeek for months has been waxing positively about his above-average maturity level, which is backed by a discernible gravitas in the way this colt carries himself and goes about his business.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

Beyond 'TDN Rising Star' Messier and the No. 9-ranked Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), all is quiet on the western front of the Derby trial, with no other California-based horses looming as A-list contenders. The GI Santa Anita Derby could shake out as a short-field match-up headlined by those two, and this $470,000 FTKSEL bay by Empire Maker will have his work cut out for him in trying to assert that his 103-Beyer, 15-length trouncing of the weak GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field Feb. 5 was no fluke. Did Messier really improve his fig 20 points off his previous effort, or was that highest Beyer of the year by any 3-year-old male an illusion of his dominance over just four other horses (three fresh out of the maiden ranks)?

The layoff angle presents another conundrum: Baffert has won a record nine Santa Anita Derbies, but every single one of those winners last started in the month of March, making Messier's attempt off an eight-week break an anomaly for a Baffert trainee. Additionally, Messier currently remains ineligible to earn Kentucky Derby qualifying points because of Baffert's banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., (although the Hall-of-Fame conditioner has initiated litigation to challenge his Derby starting status).

4) MO DONEGAL (c, Uncle Mo–Callingmissbrown, by Pulpit) O-Donegal Racing. B-Ashview Farm & Colts Neck Stables (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher. Sales History: $250,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-0-2, $221,800. Last Start: 3rd GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 12.

After a brief lapse in training because of a virus, this Uncle Mo bay was back on the Palm Beach Downs work tab Saturday, breezing a half mile in :49.41 (11/25) on even terms with stablemate and 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready). When this $250,000 KEESEP colt goes next in the GII Wood Memorial, he'll partner with Joel Rosario for the first time, as Irad Ortiz, Jr., who was aboard for Mo Donegal's last three starts, has committed to ride No. 1-ranked Classic Causeway at Keeneland the same afternoon.

Already a nine-furlong winner after annexing the GII Remsen S. in December at Aqueduct, Mo Donegal was the beaten favorite when third and suffering the most brutal trip among top Derby contenders so far this season in the GIII Holy Bull S. in February. Ortiz wasted a lot of lateral movement with his deep closer in that race by going from the rail to the five path on the first turn, then getting blocked when attempting to dive back down to the fence again on the far turn. When redirected back into the clear while widest of all, Mo Donegal spurted to life in deep stretch, digging in with renewed interest and just barely getting pipped for the place photo while finishing fast under a full head of steam. The more speed in front of Mo Donegal in the Wood, the better.

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

Zandon, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 21, occupies a lofty spot within the Top 12 considering he's the only contender yet to win beyond the maiden ranks. But he's probably packed more “street smarts” into his three lifetime races than most colts in this less-is-more era of training Derby contenders. At least that's the working theory. The bandwagon for this $170,000 KEESEP colt was already straining at the axles based on positive impressions from his willingness to fight in the rough-and-tumble stretch run of the GII Remsen S. (second) and again in the GII Risen Star S. after missing the break (third). Last week's naming of Flavien Prat to ride Zandon in his next start at Keeneland could also be viewed as a plus. If the stars align and the racing gods deliver us a Blue Grass that features Classic Causeway, Smile Happy and Zandon, the clash of the Nos. 1, 2 and 5 horses on this list would make that Apr. 9 stakes the meatiest Derby prep the sport has witnessed in years.

6) EPICENTER (c, Not This Time–Silent Candy, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC. B-Westwind Farms (KY). T-Steven M. Asmussen. Sales History: $260,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-3-1-0, $410,639. Last Start: 1st GII Risen Star S. Next Start: GII Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 64.

Only two horses have won the GII Louisiana Derby and then the Kentucky Derby–Grindstone in 1996 and Black Gold in 1924. One Louisiana Derby runner-up (Funny Cide in 2003) also wore a blanket of roses in Louisville. But strangely enough, the Louisiana Derby is now on the verge of having two of its also-rans in the past three years recognized as Kentucky Derby winners via disqualification–Country House in '19 (because of an in-race foul by Maximum Security) and Mandaloun in '21 (pending an under-appeal drug DQ of Medina Spirit).

Epicenter, this year's expected favorite, caught a break when only seven could be lured to run against him, with only one of those rivals ranked within the current Top 12. This $260,000 KEESEP son of Not This Time already checks quite a few boxes on the Derby desirability list: Five lifetime races, all with ascending Beyer Speed Figures. Three wins around two turns, and one already at nine furlongs. He breaks adeptly, uses speed as an effective weapon, but does not seem to be a needs-the-lead colt.

Epicenter fights gamely when put to pressure in the stretch, and his only loss in the past six months came after he repulsed multiple attacks before getting nailed at the wire by a pick-up-the-pieces long shot. A win on Saturday isn't crucial. But a gritty showing is imperative in a spot so seemingly favorable for Epicenter that it could loom as a “trap” race masquerading as an obvious win opportunity.

7) SIMPLIFICATION (c, Not This Time–Simply Confection, by Candy Ride {Arg}) O-Tami Bobo. B-France & Irwin Weiner (FL). T-Antonio Sano. Sales History: $50,000 wlg '19 KEENOV. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-3-1-1, $411,350. Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 54.

Simplification ($50,000 RNA at KEENOV) wasn't on the radar of most Derby prognosticators when the year started. But this athletic son of Not This Time has earned a spot near the top of the crop with a nice progression arc under the patient handling of trainer Antonio Sano. He flashed blitzing speed to win his maiden by 16 3/4 lengths in 1:09.81 for six furlongs back in October, and has rounded into an adaptable stalker or closer while stretching out in distance, looking comfortable and confident despite having to change his tactics. In the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Simplification was hooked widest of all off the far turn and finished with purpose over a short-stretch 1 1/16-miles configuration. He now has six races on his résumé and a block of four 90 or better Beyers against increasingly more difficult company. The Florida Derby is next.

8) EMMANUEL (c, More Than Ready–Hard Cloth, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-WinStar Farm LLC & Siena Farm LLC. B-Helen K. Groves Revocable Trust (KY). T-Todd A. Pletcher.
Sales History: $350,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-2-0-0, $69,600. Last Start: 4th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 5.

This physically robust 'TDN Rising Star' is logical but not definite for the Florida Derby. Regardless of where he starts next, bettors will be factoring in his Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. tour of the track that Trakus clocked as being 229 feet wider than a winner who journeyed six off the fence turning for home. The unknown in Emmanuel's equation has to do with whether or not he will revert to flashing the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start. Emmanuel ran stunningly in his Gulfstream MSW debut in a one-turn mile, then capably peeled off a two-turn allowance win at Tampa while never being fully extended. But in terms of the caliber of competition he dismantled on those afternoons, it is a little concerning to see that the collective next-out records of the horses he beat is only 1-for-12, with the lone victor among that group having to drop into the maiden-claiming ranks to graduate.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: Possible for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom isn't the first (and likely won't be the last) Derby contender this season to miss scheduled training because of a mild fever. But when the same thing happened to Emmanuel in early January and Mo Donegal at the start of March, their connections simply opted for other qualifying-points prep races. That's not a luxury available to trainer Richard Mandella with this speed-centric son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL). He'd been aiming his colt for the Apr. 9 Santa Anita Derby, but had to hold him out of a workout last Friday after Forbidden Kingdom spiked a temperature. In recent years, Forbidden Kingdom could have been rerouted to the GI Arkansas Derby, which, with its traditional mid-April spot on the calendar three weeks before the Kentucky Derby, annually attracted late entrants as the lone-remaining nine-furlong, points-awarding prep. But because this year Oaklawn moved its premier stakes back to Apr. 2, an unprecedented four-week gulf now exists between the final 100-points-to-the-winner stakes and the Kentucky Derby itself.

“He has not had another temperature,” Mandella said Saturday morning. “I'm hoping we can still make the Santa Anita Derby…. So far, it looks good. I don't think it's a problem to miss the first work [since a 98-Beyer wiring of the GII San Felipe S.] because we've got time for a couple more. Everything will have to go right, and so far, it is.”

10) EARLY VOTING (c, Gun Runner–Amour d'Ete, by Tiznow) O-Klaravich Stables, Inc. B-Three Chimneys Farm, LLC. T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $200,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $181,500. Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S. Next Start: GII Wood Memorial, AQU, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 10.

Because Early Voting has only had two well-spaced starts and is still more than two weeks away from his final Derby prep, we have to do a fair amount of dissecting his company lines to size up how good he might be. It's been well publicized that the horses who ran second and fourth behind him in the Feb. 5 GII Withers S. came back to win the GII Rebel S. at 75-1 and finish second in the Tampa Derby at 37-1. In the wake of those results, Early Voting's winning 78 Beyer figure got retooled to a significantly higher 87. But two other also-rans out of the Withers could only manage second and third as the favorites in a three-horse stakes at Parx, and another was up the track in the GIII Gotham S., so it's probably prudent to hold off on hanging the “key race” label on Early Voting's easy Withers win.

The most interesting bit of info out of his two Aqueduct victories is that both occurred on dull winter surfaces that yielded tepid final times. This begs the question of what this colt might be capable of over a tighter track. Early Voting is a speed-oriented threat capable of sustained intensity, and his stock as a Derby contender is high right now as a coveted first-crop son of Gun Runner out of an unraced Tiznow mare who is a half-sister to 2004 sprint champ Speightstown. The Wood Memorial should tell us how much of that valuation is based on reality rather than perception.

11) WHITE ABARRIO (c, Race Day–Catching Diamonds, by Into Mischief) O-C2 Racing Stable LLC and La Milagrosa Stable, LLC. B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY). T-Saffie A. Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $7,500 ylg '20 OBSWIN; $40,000 2yo '21 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-0-1, $240,850. Last Start: 1st GIII Holy Bull S. Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Apr. 2. KY Derby Points: 12.

This Race Day gray owns three open-length wins at Gulfstream, and his only loss was a pugnacious third at Churchill behind the Nos. 1 and 2 colts on this list. The Florida Derby is next.

“Two weeks out, so far, so good,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr., on Sunday after White Abarrio breezed five furlongs in company in 1:00.42 (4/17) under jockey Tyler Gaffalione. The move was the colt's fourth workout since seizing the Holy Bull S. in February. Joseph said the workout “was more of an easier breeze with a good finish and a good gallop-out. Everything went to plan. He sat off a workmate. He relaxed well. I had his last quarter in :23, so it was a good finish.”

White Abarrio's last-win Beyer of 97 rates fourth-best this year among all 3-year-old males. But that big fig (earned under ideal trip circumstances) also represented a sizable jump off his first three Beyers (81, 81 and 80), and it will be a big ask for him to replicate or even improve upon that pattern while stepping up into Grade I company and trying nine furlongs for the first time.

12) RATTLE N ROLL (c, Connect–Jazz Tune, by Johannesburg) O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-St. Simon Place (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $55,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $210,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-2-0-1, $383,460. Last Start: 6th GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. Next Start: GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 26. KY Derby Points: 10.

Timing and circumstances haven't been on the side of this huge-striding grinder. At Saratoga last summer, he got caught in a quarantine barn after other horses came down with a herpes virus. Then this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) bolted on the turn when making a potentially winning move. After winning back-to-back Kentucky races in the fall (a MSW and a Grade I stakes), a foot abscess caused Rattle N Roll to miss the Breeders' Cup, where he would have been among the favorites for the GI Juvenile. Coming off a five-month layoff, he ran like a not-ready-for-prime-time colt (sixth in the Tampa Derby), and trainer Kenny McPeek had signaled before that race that we might get a glimpse of the true Rattle N Roll three weeks later when he stretched him out to 1 3/16 miles in the Louisiana Derby. That opportunity now presents itself, and there are only two other stakes winners lurking in the field of eight. Saturday's race in New Orleans doesn't rate as a “big easy.” But it's lacking enough sophomore star power to make it a now-or-never proposition for Rattle N Roll to stamp himself as a legit contender in Louisville.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Blackadder (Quality Road): This $620,000 KEESEP Baffert trainee could be on the traveling team to Oaklawn, where he's nominated to the Arkansas Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred and 'TDN Rising Star' for trainer Todd Pletcher appears on target for Florida Derby.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Rebel S. runner-up will be rerouted to Blue Grass S. in an effort to keep this D. Wayne Lukas trainee separated from filly stablemate Secret Oath (Arrogate), who will take on the boys in the Arkansas Derby.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) bankrolled 20 qualifying points with second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., his first two-turn try for trainer Kelly Breen.

Morello (Classic Empire): Undefeated, 96-Beyer GIII Gotham S. victor ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) should contribute to lively pace in Wood Memorial.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Bullet breeze at Keeneland last Friday for this $330,000 FTKSEL colt in first work back since Battaglia S. win over Tapeta at Turfway.

Un Ojo (Laoban): Every Derby season needs an outlandish overachiever to keep things interesting. This one-eyed New York-bred gelding, with his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the Rebel S., is that horse for 2022. He might not have universal respect, but Un Ojo owns 54 qualifying points, with only two contenders ahead of him on the leaderboard. Next up, the Arkansas Derby.

The post TDN Kentucky Derby Top 12 for Mar. 22 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 8

Sometimes a big weekend of prep races brings answers to key development questions on the GI Kentucky Derby trail. Other times–like this past Saturday–those major stakes only produce more questions. Part of the fun about the emerging puzzle this year is that at this point, no one contender within the Top 12 stands very far above his peers.

1) CLASSIC CAUSEWAY (c, Giant's Causeway–Private World, by Thunder Gulch) O/B-Kentucky West Racing LLC & Clarke M. Cooper Family Living Trust (KY). T-Brian A. Lynch. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $301,100. Last Start: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S. Next Start: GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM, Mar. 12. KY Derby Points: 16.

Trainer Brian Lynch has termed both of Classic Causeway's works since his Feb. 12 victory as “strong” and he is confident this colt's apparent fondness for racing over the sandy Tampa strip will make him a worthy favorite in Saturday's GII Tampa Bay Derby. A glance at the latest “probables” list shouldn't inspire much fear in the favorite's camp, because unless there's an unexpected entrant before draw time Wednesday, there are no other Top 12 contenders making the trip to Tampa.

But–as annually warned in this space–Tampa sometimes produces quirky results, and the last four editions of its Derby have been won by longshots at odds higher than 8-1. Between 1987 and 1996, before Tampa's sophomore stakes became attractive, points-awarding Kentucky Derby preps, four sophomores swept both the Davis and the Tampa Derby. But in the 25 years since then, only two horses have managed that increasingly difficult double (Burning Roma in '01 and Destin in '16). Yet this Giant's Causeway homebred for Kentucky West Racing and Clarke Cooper brings impressive credentials: His Davis romp featured an impressive burst of late-race acceleration that produced the fastest final sixteenth of any prep at 1 1/16 miles so far this season, and he ran tenaciously as a juvenile against heavy hitters in two of the more difficult graded stakes last autumn.

2) SMILE HAPPY (c, Runhappy–Pleasant Smile, by Pleasant Tap) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Lucky Seven Stable. B-Moreau Bloodstock Int'l Inc. & White Bloodstock LLC (KY). T-Kenneth G. McPeek. Sales History: $175,000 wlg '19 KEENOV; $185,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $364,810. Last Start: 2nd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Uncommitted. KY Derby Points: 30.

'TDN Rising Star' Smile Happy beat three next-out stakes winners in his visually arresting GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. victory last November, and his February comeback in the GII Risen Star S. was punctuated by a too-late closing kick after enduring mild trip trouble. As the highest-priced of 45 Runhappy yearlings to sell at auction in 2020 ($185,000 FTKSEL after a $175,000 KEENOV buy), Smile Happy stands out as a colt with a maturity edge who responds to being rated off the pace and is capable of uncorking highly torqued far-turn moves that aren't in the toolboxes of most rivals. On Saturday at Gulfstream, he was back on the work tab for the first time since his last race, breezing a half mile in :49.03 (33/76). Two Grade I's, the Curlin Florida Derby or the Toyota Blue Grass S., have been mentioned as a possible next start, and Kenny McPeek said a factor in the decision will be a desire by owner Lucky Seven Stable to keep Smile Happy separated from stablemate Rattle N Roll (Connect), who is ranked at No. 12.

3) MESSIER (c, Empire Maker–Checkered Past, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Robert E. Masterson, Jay A. Schoenfarber, Waves Edge Capital LLC, Catherine M. Donovan, Golconda Stable & Siena Farm LLC. B-Sam-Son Farm (ON). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $470,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: 5-3-2-0, $285,600. Last Start: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S. Next Start: Probable for GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: N/A.

'TDN Rising Star' Messier now has two published workouts since his blowout 15-length, 103-Beyer thumping of the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. field on Feb. 6. This $470,000 FTKSEL colt by Empire Maker is parked atop the depth chart within trainer Bob Baffert's perennially deep stable of Derby contenders, but his starting status for the first leg of the Triple Crown is in limbo while Baffert litigates both a banishment by Churchill Downs, Inc., and an equine medication suspension by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission. Although the subpar Lewis field is not a proper measuring stick to judge how good Messier might really be, note that two starts back this colt beat Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah) in the GIII Bob Hope S., and that rival has since won two Santa Anita graded stakes in succession, including last Saturday's GII San Felipe S.

Mo Donegal was the 3-1 morning-line favorite for last Saturday's GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. until he scratched three days before the race. The scratch itself wasn't a shocker, because trainer Todd Pletcher had said at entry time that Mo Donegal's starting status would be post-draw dependent. So when this $250,000 KEESEP colt drew the 12 hole–hardly ideal for a closer on Gulfstream's short-stretch 1 1/16 miles configuration–Pletcher withdrew. Jerry Crawford of Donegal Racing told TDN that Mo Donegal had also developed a “minor virus,” which now means the GII Wood Memorial S. Apr. 9 at Aqueduct will serve as the colt's lone Derby prep stakes between February and May. Pletcher “didn't seem particularly concerned about this,” Crawford said. “Before the virus popped up, one of the options we were seriously considering was training up to the Wood. So this isn't that big a change of plans for us.”

5) ZANDON (c, Upstart–Memories Prevail, by Creative Cause) O-Jeff Drown. B-Brereton C. Jones (KY). T-Chad C. Brown. Sales History: $170,000 ylg '20 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 3-1-1-0, $139,500. Last Start: 3rd GII Risen Star S. Next Start: Possible for GI Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 9. KY Derby Points: 14.

It's too early in the season for there to be a “wise guy” horse among the Derby aspirants. That informal designation annually gets applied to a better-than-he-looks contender sometime around Derby week itself, and it's a figurative way of saying the supposed sharpies will be pounding that horse in the betting because they see value where the public doesn't. But Zandon's adversity-overcoming narrative has been so well publicized this winter that you have to start to wonder if he'll be able to live up to it. This $170,000 KEESEP colt by Upstart is still only a MSW sprint winner. But his widespread appeal stems from the way Zandon handled himself under duress in two nine-furlong stakes. His loss by a head when getting roughed up in the stretch of the GII Remsen S. made national headlines because of the controversial non-DQ of Mo Donegal. And every trip handicapper in the nation noted Zandon blowing the break of the Risen Star S., only to catch the eye with a stout three-furlong run that culminated with Zandon digging in to win a tight photo for third. We've all seen his potential, but pretty soon he's going to have to actually deliver. Trainer Chad Brown has mentioned the GI Blue Grass S. as this colt's next start. That's a race that Brown knows how to target effectively: The last four times Brown has had a starter in the Blue Grass, the results have been one win and three close seconds.

The way it stands now, Epicenter will be the only Top 12 contender to complete the month of March with at least six lifetime starts under his belt. That's still not very many based on historical benchmarks. But under the current less-is-more Derby training mindset, it could give this $260,000 KEESEP colt an advantage over more lightly raced peers. Nyquist in 2016 was the last Derby winner to amass at least seven starts prior to Louisville, and it seems like ages ago when California Chrome started 10 times prior to his 2014 Derby victory. (The last Derby winner with double-digit starts before him? Charismatic with 14 in 1999.) Epicenter's seasoning is already evident in the unruffled, no-nonsense way he goes about his business, and while not a flashy sort of frontrunner, he cranks out honest fractions and fights off whoever comes after him without looking intimidated or in over his head. If he runs away with the 1 3/16-miles GII Louisiana Derby in his next start, he'll additionally be the only A-list sophomore to have won both at and beyond nine furlongs.

Simplification had been pegged as a needs-the-lead type of horse as recently as last month. But when he tossed his head at the break and then showed he could come from behind to get second in the Feb. 5 GIII Holy Bull S., trainer Antonio Sano sensed he might have a colt capable of firing well regardless of where he was positioned. In Saturday's Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth , Simplification ($50,000 RNA KEENOV) saved ground near the fence while midpack through the first turn, then was angled out to avoid getting pocketed on the back straight. Jockey Jose Ortiz did some lateral weaving and minor brake tapping to keep from getting stalled, but once Simplification was guided outside and into the clear approaching the far bend, it became obvious that Ortiz's strategy was not to let 'TDN Rising Star' Emmanuel (More Than Ready) out of his striking sights. Simplification followed that rival and was asked to rev it up three-eighths out, and although Emmanuel got the first jump, the widest-of-all Simplification had built the better momentum. The two faves left trouble behind off the turn (neither affected by the two-horse spill right behind them), and Simplification swooped down to the inside to finish with purpose. He earned a 96 Beyer Speed Figure, and will be aimed at the GI Florida Derby.

Even though Simplification was six wide into the stretch of the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., Emmanuel ran 38 feet (about four lengths) more that the winner, according to Trakus, while checking in fourth. The read here is that this brawny 'TDN Rising Star' and $350,000 KEESEP son of More Than Ready will be a more dangerous commodity in the Florida Derby. Although Emmanuel lacked the characteristic early speed that propelled him to a 2-for-2 career start, he still put in a solid far-turn move after a four-wide journey through the clubhouse turn, a nine-wide placement on the backstretch, then a five-wide run through the far bend. He also suffered some momentum loss in upper stretch when Simplification veered down and claimed an inner path, but when Luis Saez switched Emmanuel off Simplification's heels it was clear this colt was already spent and had no true spark for the final furlong. With only five Kentucky Derby qualifying points to his credit, Emmanuel either delivers big in the Florida Derby or will have to make other plans for the first Saturday in May.

9) FORBIDDEN KINGDOM (c, American Pharoah–Just Louise, by Five Star Day) O-MyRacehorse & Spendthrift Farm LLC. B-Springhouse Farm (KY). T-Richard E. Mandella. Sales History: $300,000 ylg '20 FTKSEL. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 5-3-1-1, $434,000. Last Start: 1st GII San Felipe S. Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby. KY Derby Points: 50.

Forbidden Kingdom's 5 3/4-length wiring of the GII San Felipe S. on Saturday launched him into the Top 12, yet he still rates as a wild card when it comes to what the 98-Beyer victory means in the overall Derby picture. This son of American Pharoah ($300,000 FTKSEL) owns rocketing early speed and an assertive way of weaponizing that chief attribute. But this year's renewal of the San Felipe came up weak on paper, and early speed had a decided advantage at Santa Anita on Saturday, with four of five dirt races being won by horses who either led all the way or dueled for the lead. And even though Forbidden Kingdom wasn't being ridden all-out once it became evident he had the race wrapped up in deep stretch, his final sixteenth of 7.09 seconds rates as the slowest among all Derby qualifying points races at 1 1/16 miles from the Breeders' Cup onward in 2021-22. But Forbidden Kingdom does have that patient Richard Mandella mojo in his favor (a master at training horses to peak when he wants them to). And as jockey Juan Hernandez put it, “He's really fast. A couple of jumps after we broke, he was in front already. I let him run because if you fight with him he tries to go faster. I let him have fun. I turned him loose and he never stopped.”

Forbidden Kingdom | Benoit Photo

Is the Derby winner wintering in New York? Belmont Park-based Early Voting is being aimed for the Wood Memorial, and a win there would run his lifetime record to 3-for-3, with all of those victories at Aqueduct. That would be quite a remarkable past performance block for a Derby starter, both in terms of brevity and geography. But because trainer Chad Brown is known for taking his time with developing horses, even a Wood victory might not guarantee that he tosses this $200,000 KEESEP into the Derby fray.

In some ways, Early Voting and stablemate Zandon are yins to each other's yangs. Early Voting owns two wins, including a nine-furlong stakes, but still comes across as light on experience. Zandon is a winner of just a MSW sprint, but he's a more proven commodity when it comes to handling in-race adversity, and he's already dealt with shipping for a big stakes. There's lots to like about each, but Early Voting does seem like the one whose potential for peaking might come later in the season.

The stock of athletic, nimble White Abarrio got boosted a bit over the weekend even though he only breezed at Gulfstream in anticipation for the Florida Derby. That's because two of the horses he beat in the Holy Bull S. last month came back to win stakes in their next starts. Simplification, second in the Holy Bull, returned victorious in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., while Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb) rebounded off a seventh-place try to score in the Battaglia S. at Turfway. “[Saturday's results] really franked the form and [it] gives you some confidence when you know the form is legit,” said trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. “We just need him to stay healthy and sound. We know he has the class and the ability.”

This son of Race Day ($7,500 OBSWIN; $40,000 OBSMAR) has a distinct home track advantage at Gulfstream (3-for-3), and his rematch with Simplification looms as one of the more anticipated rivalries of the prep season.

You could have almost put the proverbial cross-out line through Rattle N Roll's performance in the Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth before he even ran the race. Trainer Kenny McPeek didn't say it straight out, but he signaled pre-race that this son of Connect ($55,000 KEENOV; $210,000 KEESEP) wouldn't likely be fully cranked to fire his best shot off a five-month layoff. As we saw in his GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. win back on Oct. 9, this is a large-framed colt who needs the opportunity to uncoil for one prolonged bid. So being hemmed in traffic while racing over a short-stretch configuration on a surface that tilts in favor of early speed was probably not the ideal way to showcase Rattle N Roll's tactical attributes. He broke last, was guided to the rail, then incrementally advanced down the backstretch. A half mile out, he was eighth, yet only 2 1/2 lengths off the leaders in a tightly bunched field. But Rattle N Roll never truly dug in and fired at any point. I'm inclined to think his Fountain of Youth effort was too blah to be true, and that he'll be a tighter fighter at nine furlongs.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Belgrade (Hard Spun): This 2-for-2 Graham Motion trainee ($45,000 FTKSEL; $700,000 KEEJAN) listed as “likely” for Saturday's Tampa Bay Derby, which will be this colt's route debut.

Blackadder (Quality Road): Bullet move Monday morning for this $620,000 KEESEP Baffert colt who exits an off-pace win in the El Camino Real Derby.

Charge It (Tapit): Whisper Hill Farm homebred named 'TDN Rising Star' for Pletcher when daylight winner in a one-turn MSW mile at Gulfstream. He's nominated to the Blue Grass, so that could be a possible April prep.

Ethereal Road (Quality Road): Led from quarter pole until 50 yards from wire after wide journey in slowly run Rebel S.; GI Arkansas Derby next for this D. Wayne Lukas-trained $90,000 KEEEP colt.

In Due Time (Not This Time): Three-time sales grad ($9,500 KEENOV; $35,000 KEESEP; $95,000 OBSAPR) ran second in Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. in first two-turn try. Trainer Kelly Breen: “The Florida Derby is in our backyard, but I won't say anything until I talk to the owners and come up with a game plan.”

Major General (Constitution): The 2-for-2 winner of the Sept. 18 Iroquois S. ($265,000 KEEJAN; $420,000 KEESEP) slated for Saturday's Tampa Derby off nearly six-month hiatus.

Morello (Classic Empire): Speed-centric colt ($140,000 KEENOV; $200,000 FTKSEL; $250,000 EASMAY) is now 3-for-3 in one-turn races after sharp 96-Beyer score in GIII Gotham S.

Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb): Runner-up in GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf (FTKSEL $330,000) regrouped off dirt-eating Holy Bull S. seventh with points-earning score in Turfway's Battaglia S. over Tapeta.

Un Ojo (Laoban): New York-bred gelding has already locked up 54 qualifying points for Louisville, but must prove in Arkansas Derby that his 75-1 rain-soaked shocker in the GII Rebel S. was no fluke.

The post TDN Derby Top 12 for Mar. 8 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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TDN Top-to-Bottom Derby Rundown

This week’s TDN Triple Crown feature examines the GI Kentucky Derby runners in detail from first to last.

1) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, MyRaceHorse Stable, Madaket Stables LLC & Starlight Racing. B-Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 6-5-1-0, $2,871,200.

Front-running Authentic bested 14 Derby foes in admirable, take-the-heat fashion. But it was the way this $350,000 KEESEP Into Mischief bay overcame a long season’s worth of focusing issues to finally put forth a polished, seasoned effort that truly stands out. Although Authentic might have given his connections an anxious moment or two when he came away flat-footed at the break from the outermost 15 stall, jockey John Velazquez didn’t rush the colt at all. In fact, the bent-necked Authentic had his head cocked out to the near-empty grandstand while ranging up widest to attain a prominent early placement. Ridden with restraint, Authentic hit the top just past the finish wire the first time, but he still had to safely clear three inside rivals through the first turn, costing him some ground. Onto the backstretch Velazquez maintained a margin of about a length while remaining several paths off the rail. Authentic really only had to put away one serious “first run” bid off the far turn, but that one challenger loomed menacingly in the form of legit Derby fave Tiz the Law (Constitution). Tiz got his nose in front at the quarter pole, but that affront only emboldened Authentic, who dug in determinedly and responded to left-handed stick work (this per trainer Bob Baffert’s instructions, Velazquez later said) despite shifting out for several strides before finishing with purpose inside the sixteenth pole. The Preakness now awaits the 5-for-6 Derby champ.

2) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime Record: MGISW, 8-6-1-1, $2,615,300.

If you had your crystal ball fired up and had been able to correctly predict that Tiz the Law would enjoy a primo, trouble-free Derby stalking trip in third for most of the race while zeroing in with metronomic precision on a lone leader who had worked hard to attain that top spot, most backers would have jumped at the proposition that Tiz was more likely than not to have blown right by Authentic at the quarter pole. Yet despite having everything his own way, that’s not how it worked out for this $110,000 SARAUG Constitution colt. Although Tiz briefly seized the lead, he came figuratively unglued when Authentic punched back with authority, and that battle represented the first time in his career that Tiz encountered any serious resistance inside the eighth pole. You can parse this performance all you want, but trainer Barclay Tagg summed it up best in just a few words: “He ran a good race today. He got beat.” Jockey Manny Franco even admitted that “the trip was perfect–no excuse.” Tiz’s only two lifetime losses have now come at Churchill Downs nearly 10 months apart, but the track surface isn’t the likely culprit. Rather, having only four weeks between races (his shortest layoff yet) and the extreme difficulty of maintaining elite-level form for over a year now both look like the more legitimate toll-taking factors. Here’s hoping Tiz rebounds in his training and that a Preakness rematch is in the cards.

3) MR. BIG NEWS (c, Giant’s Causeway—Unappeased {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Allied Racing Stable LLC; B-Don Alberto Corporation (KY); T-Bret Calhoun. Sales History: $95,000 Ylg ’18 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: SW & GISP, 8-2-1-1, $468,553.

At 46-1, Mr. Big News outran his odds while running true to his distance-centric pedigree (by Giant’s Causeway out of a Galileo mare). He broke alertly and settled willingly, and when the main body of eight runners peeled off from the pack into the first turn, jockey Gabriel Saez was content to track the action behind that bunch well in the clear and without being covered up. He edged closer into the far turn, and in several rapid strides just prior to the five-sixteenths pole blew by five fading horses all at once (although this move was legit on its own, it did appear more explosive than it actually was because of the backpedaling of the spent horses). In the stretch Mr. Big News couldn’t close the gap on the top two, who were unquestionably in a different league. His projected Beyer Speed Figure of 101 means that Mr. Big News has now topped his previous Beyer every single time out over eight career starts, which is something you don’t often see.

4) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: GISW, 6-2-3-0, $532,200.

Honor A.P. was never in it to win it last Saturday. Yet considering how tactically adrift he was for the first mile of the race, his fourth-place effort is better than it might seem. “He spun out from the word go. Really did,” said jockey Mike Smith, who cited this $850,000 FTSAUG Honor Code ridgling’s inability to grab hold of the “deeper, cuppier” track as the chief obstacle to a better placing. He broke hesitantly and was allowed to lag near last for most of the trip before unwinding with a long-striding move through the far turn that left him parked way out in the 10 path for the home straight. But he didn’t pass a single horse in mid-stretch who was not already backing up. Honor A.P.’s Derby has a “too bad to be true” aura to it, and as the only horse to ever finish in front of Authentic (in the GI Santa Anita Derby), it’s reasonable to think he’s capable of a more spirited showing if and when they meet again.

5) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G Stables (KY). T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 6-2-1-2, $463,500.

Max Player inherited the dreaded one hole after a scratch, and this first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) got a decent schooling out of the experience while rallying nicely through traffic to snag fifth with a late spurt. Even before the field completed the first furlong, you could see Max was getting pelted with kickback while down inside, and jockey Ricardo Santana, Jr. guided him to the back of the pack to save ground through the first turn and onto the backstretch. As the field tightened up entering the far turn, Santana opted to move out rather than try to weave through traffic at the fence. But even being eight paths wide into the lane Max could still not avoid shifting off heels and having to maneuver for better positioning. When a clear hole did finally materialize, Max dove through with interest. That could be the “Ah-ha!” moment that signals advancement into the upper echelon of the sophomore ranks might not be as far off as it seems for this colt.

6) STORM THE COURT (c, Court Vision–My Tejana Storm, by Tejano Run) O-Exline-Border Racing LLC & David A Bernsen LLC; B-Stepping Stone Farm (KY); T-Peter Eurton. Sales History: $5,000 Ylg ’18 FTKFEB; $60,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo, GISW, 10-2-1-3, $1,310,451.

If there’s a such thing as a sneaky-good sixth, Storm the Court ran it in the Derby. He was actually the between-calls leader first time through the homestretch, and although jockey Julien Leparoux opted not to slug it out on the front end with Authentic, he didn’t concede an inch at the fence positionally while transitioning to stalk mode. On the far turn, this $60,000 OBSAPR Court Vision bay (previously a $5,000 FTKFEB yearling) had four horses parked directly to his outside and one just behind him ratcheting up the mid-pack pressure, but Storm the Court still didn’t crack. By virtue of saving so much ground, the juvenile champ was able to re-bid and briefly fight for a share of third as the field swung for home, but he could not sustain that momentum and ran on respectably despite being spent. Ten furlongs on dirt is probably not his thing, but this was still a better-than-it-looks performance.

7) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History: $775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 11-2-2-2, $397,150.

Stout-pedigreed Enforceable made his early-career mark as a deep closer who didn’t mind taking the overland route, and he was bet down to 22-1 in the Derby primarily on the angle that he’d be motoring late when many others would be struggling with the final furlong. Thus it was a surprise to see him involved in the early jostling for the lead, mixing it up in the front vanguard. He essentially followed Storm the Court’s rail trip while looking comfortable covered up, and he vacated the fence turning for home only to be dropped back down inside after finding neither the running room nor the spark to sustain a serious deep-stretch bid.

8) NY TRAFFIC (c, Cross Traffic–Mamie Reilly, by Graeme Hall)
O-John Fanelli, Cash is King LLC, LC Racing & Paul Braverman. B-Brian Culnan (NY). T-Saffie Joseph, Jr. Sales History: $27,000 RNA 2yo ’19 EASMAY. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-2-3-2, $565,470.

Ny Traffic veered out at the break and then was sent for speed, cutting back inward in front of five other rivals in jockey Paco Lopez’s all-costs zeal to have this gray near the head of affairs. This $27,000 EASMAY RNA by Cross Traffic attended the pace outside of Authentic, but at no time did he ratchet up the pressure to the point where it made the frontrunner uncomfortable. Ny Traffic briefly sparred with Tiz the Law when the favorite engaged him three-eighths out, but Tiz swatted Ny Traffic away handily, and this colt backpedaled out of contention while shifting outward and contributing to the logjam of fading horses in the wider paths of the upper stretch. In the aftermath of the race, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr. reported Ny Traffic lost a front shoe and had some cuts on his legs.

9) NECKER ISLAND (c, Hard Spun—Jenny’s Rocket, by Mr. Greeley) O-Raymond Daniels, Wayne Scherr & Will Harbut Racing LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Chris Hartman. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 11-2-0-3, $199,730.

The game plan for blinkers-off Necker Island was to be close to the pace along the inside. Instead he was next to last for most of his Derby trip and made a belated far-turn run while 10 wide into the stretch. “Outclassed” was trainer Chris Hartman’s post-race summation.

10) MAJOR FED (c, Ghostzapper—Bobby’s Babe, by Smart Strike) O-Lloyd Madison Farms IV LLC; B-Lloyd Madison IV (KY); T-Greg Foley. Lifetime Record: MGSP, 7-1-2-1, $215,600.

This Ghostzapper homebred out of a Smart Strike mare was boxed and blocked the first time through the stretch and into the first turn, and thereafter held a mid-pack stalking position well enough to be fourth between calls at the five-sixteenths pole. He’d had enough by the final furlong, though. “He had no business being up there where he was,” trainer Greg Foley said Sunday. “Bumper cars going into that first turn. I mean, he was a length off the lead. I don’t know if he was too fresh and broke like that and was down in there. That was the end of our chances. Everything had to go good for us. It didn’t. He came back good. He looks fine. He ate up. We’ll regroup in a little bit. He’s eligible for a [NW1X] allowance. That’s about where he’ll show up next. Go from there. He’ll look pretty good in that.”

11) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo) O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-4-1-1, $323,310.

Sole Volante was guided down to the inside shortly after the break but he ate quite a bit of kickback when he should have been settling. He rode the rail in last for most of the trip and was picking off stragglers late with 13 Derby horses all parked to his outside in the stretch. “He obviously took a lot of dirt in his face, but he scoped clean,” said co-owner Andie Biancone, who is also the assistant to her father, trainer Patrick Biancone, and the regular exercise rider for the gelding. “He’ll probably get a break now and maybe go back to the turf.”

12) WINNING IMPRESSION (g, Paynter—Unbridled Sonya, by Unbridled’s Song) O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Pearl Racing; B-WinStar Farm LLC (KY); T-Dallas Stewart. Sales History: $17,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $77,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GISP, 10-1-1-2, $98,552.

Winning Impression got hustled straight from the gate but quickly had Ny Traffic and Tiz the Law blow by him with better bursts of speed. This Paynter gray opted out of the early crush into the far turn, settling willingly at the rail to lead the second flight as the Derby broke into eight tightly packed horses in the first group and seven others scattered behind with a bit more breathing room between them. But Winning Impression was having trouble holding his spot into the far turn, and he dropped back to last before passing three laggards late in the lane.

13) MONEY MOVES (c, Candy Ride {Arg}—Citizen Advocate, by Proud Citizen) O-Robert V LaPenta & Bortolazzo Stable; B-Whitehall Lane Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $975,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 4-2-1-0, $67,400.

This $975,000 OBSAPR Candy Ride (Arg) colt was the surprise bet-down in the Derby, going off at 13-1 while light on experience (just three career races) but long on potential. He kicked out of the gate well from post five, but fought an early rating hold as jockey Javier Castellano scrambled to get good position within the top tier. Money Moves raced well despite being hemmed in between rivals for most of his backstraight journey, and was never more than four or five lengths out of the hunt. But he was punchless on the far turn and had called it a day before the quarter pole. Given the ambitious placement at this early juncture of his career, you can expect Money Moves got quite a bit of valuable experience out of his Derby journey.

14) ATTACHMENT RATE (c, Hard Spun—Aristra, by Afleet Alex) O-Jim Bakke & Gerald Isbister; B-Mr & Mrs C Oliver Iselin (VA); T-Dale Romans. Sales History: $100,000 Wlg ’17 KEENOV; $200,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 9-1-3-1, $143,732.

This Virginia-bred ($100,000 KEENOV, $200,000 KEESEP) broke with the pace but immediately had to adjust outward to stay off the heels of the inward-swerving Ny Traffic and (to a lesser extent) Tiz the Law. Shifting outside, he was four wide through the first bend and onto the backstretch. Although he didn’t lose touch, Attachment Rate never truly fired either, and when it was obvious he would wind up well beaten jockey Joe Talamo did not hammer on him for more run late in the lane.

15) SOUTH BEND (c, Algorithms—Sandra’s Rose, by Old Trieste) O-Gary Barber, Wachtel Stable, Peter Deutsch & Pantofel Stable LLC; B-Highclere Inc (KY); T-Bill Mott. Sales History: $47,000 RNA Ylg ’18 FTKJUL; $70,000 2yo ’19 OBSMAR. Lifetime Record: SW & MGSP, 13-3-2-2, $390,114.

South Bend couldn’t find a tactical spot to settle the first time through the stretch. This $70,000 OBSMAR Algorithms bay (RNA’d for $47,000 at FKTJUL) backed off a bit, and then had the most uncovered trip of anyone in the Derby through the first turn and onto the backstretch, with no one directly in front, behind, or to his sides. He rallied a bit three-eighths out, but jockey Tyler Gaffalione had to go five wide to try and gain any ground with this brief burst of momentum. South Bend was actually making mild headway toward a minor placing in deep stretch when the hit a figurative wall at the eighth pole, capitulating to last.

The post TDN Top-to-Bottom Derby Rundown appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for August 4

There are now three remaining “Road to the GI Kentucky Derby” qualifying points races on the schedule, and six horses within this week’s TDN Derby Top 12 are slated to compete in two of those races this weekend.

1) TIZ THE LAW (c, Constitution—Tizfiz, by Tiznow)
O-Sackatoga Stable. B-Twin Creeks Farm (NY). T-Barclay
Tagg. Sales History: $110,000 yrl ’18 FTNAUG. Lifetime
Record: MGISW, 6-5-0-1, $1,480,300.
Last Start: 1st GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar.
28; 1st GI Champagne S.; 1st GIII Holy Bull S. GP, Feb. 1; 3rd GII
Kentucky Jockey Club S., CD, Nov. 30
Next Start: GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 272

Tiz the Law is decisively parked at the crop of the crop, with Nos. 2, 3, and 4 on this list more or less on even footing and everyone from No. 5 on back scrambling for a firm spot in the pecking order. Will 10 furlongs at Saratoga be the stumbling block for this $110,000 Fasig-Tipton New York-Bred Sale graduate (cue the “graveyard of favorites” cliches)? Or will Saturday’s GI Runhappy Travers S. serve as yet another launch point for Tiz to widen the gap between him and his peers? Right now there are no soft spots evident on Tiz’s resume. He breaks adeptly from the gate and dictates the tempo even when he’s just stalking, and when this colt fully uncorks deeper into his races, it is with enough gusto to win by open lengths and with no one even close to him in the final furlong. Early in his career, Tiz had a knack for finding trouble and (mostly) overcoming it. As he’s matured, he and regular rider Manny Franco have instead learned to channel that keenness into a confident assertiveness that forces others to conform to Tiz’s menacing presence. Tiz the Law will be solidly favored on Saturday, but he’s no mortal lock. Yet if he does win, it will set up the highly unusual circumstance of the Derby fave already having won at 1 1/4 miles. Then, of course, with that all-important distance question answered, the focus will shift to how Tiz’s only loss to date was at Churchill Downs, the site of the Derby.

2) ART COLLECTOR (c, Bernardini—Distorted Legacy, by Distorted Humor)
O/B-Bruce Lunsford (KY). T-Thomas Drury Jr. Lifetime Record:
GSW, 8-4-1-0, $548,475.
Last Start: 1st GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Next Start: Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 100

Art Collector goes in Sunday’s Ellis Park Derby as the horse to beat. But he’s not on the hunt for qualifying points (currently fifth with 100), so he needn’t be fully cranked when the true target is really four weeks later in Louisville. His 103 Beyer Speed Figure, 3 1/2-length breakout win in the GII Blue Grass S. was admirable for the sustained pressure Art Collector applied over nine furlongs before out-torqueing a very game Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) in the stretch. Yet until we see more stakes-quality horses run back from Keeneland’s July mini-meet, it will be hard to quantify how many performances over those five days were affected by a perceived bias that at times seemed to favor pace-pressers. Even if Art Collector did win under ideal circumstances, the overall body of work for this athletic-framed Bruce Lunsford homebred does not stamp him as a one-race wonder. He’s crossed the finish wire first sprinting on the turf, in in the slop, and on a dry track, and then scored by open lengths in both his route attempts. If you’re a firm believer in the “what have you done for me lately?” angle, it’s also worth noting that Art Collector and Tiz the Law are the only Top 12 contenders with perfect three-for-three records in 2020.

3) HONOR A.P. (r, Honor Code—Hollywood Story, by Wild Rush)
O-C R K Stable LLC. B-George Krikorian (KY). T-John
Shirreffs. Sales History: $850,000 yrl ’18 FTSAUG. Lifetime
Record: GISW, 5-2-3-0, $382,200.
Last Start: 2nd Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments include: 1st GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, June 6; 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 140.

Honor A.P. ran second and earned a 102 Beyer Speed Figure for his effort in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar. But he never looked comfortable at 1-5 odds, and even before the race went off it had an aura of being one of those preps where the circumstances weren’t going to be ideal for this $850,000 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga acquisition. Honor A.P. has demonstrated he wants more ground, not less, and he was cutting back half a furlong to 1 1/16 miles from his nine-furlong GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby score. The dynamics of the four-horse Shared Belief meant he would have be closer to the pace than he preferred, but Honor A.P. had little choice but to work from the back of the pack after getting solidly bumped at the start by one Bob Baffert trainee while another darted to an uncontested lead. Jockey Mike Smith opted for the three path on both turns with Honor A.P. while race winner Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile) rode the rail all the way around. Honor A.P.’s so-so late surge to get second was visually amplified by Cezanne (Curlin) backpedaling out of contention. “I haven’t been able to get on him in the mornings [because of pandemic protocols] and I think that’s made a difference,” Smith said. “He’s just been going along there not doing much in the mornings. I need to be on him and get more out of him…. This distance is too short for him, too.” Except a tighter and mightier Honor A.P. in Louisville.

4) KING GUILLERMO (c, Uncle Mo—Slow Sand, by Dixieland Band)
O-Victoria’s Ranch. B-Carhue Investments, Grouseridge Ltd. &
Marengo Investments (KY). T-Juan Avila. Sales History: $90,000
RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP; $150,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record:
GSW & GISP, 5-2-1-1, $340,350.
Last Start: 2nd GI Arkansas Derby, OP, May 2
Accomplishments Include: 3rd Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30; 1st
GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 90.

King Guillermo shipped from his Florida base to Churchill Downs last week, settling into the next phase of his purposely planned (yet still unconventional) quest to win the Derby off a 127-day gap between starts. Regret won the 1915 Derby off a 259-day break, and Sir Barton won the 1919 Derby off a 238-day rest. Since 1929 (when more complete records began being kept), the longest winning layoff has been 42 days, equaled by Needles in 1956 and Animal Kingdom in 2011. This bay colt won the GII Tampa Bay Derby off a 97-day respite back in March, registering a 49-1 shocker that was both visually impressive and the third-fastest clocking of that stakes in 40 runnings (99 Beyer). Trainer Juan Carlos Avila then shipped him to Oaklawn, where King Guillermo ran a gutsy second in the faster division of the split GI Arkansas Derby, responding to a very aggressive ride from the far turn home. If heavy favorites in the remaining prep races start to wilt in the August heat, Avila’s “less is more” Derby training plan could end up looking pretty shrewd come the first Saturday in September and not as strange as when he first publicly announced it in May.

5) COUNTRY GRAMMER (c, Tonalist—Arabian Song, by Forestry)
O-Paul P Pompa Jr. B-Scott & Debbie Pierce (KY). T-Chad Brown. Lifetime Record: GSW, 5-2-0-1, $117,320.
Sales History: $60,000 Ylg ’18 KEESEP; $450,000 2yo ’19 OBSAPR. Last Start: 1st, GIII Peter Pan S., SAR, July 16
Next Start: GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. Derby Points: 50

Country Grammer has the most realistic chance of upsetting Tiz the Law in Saturday’s Travers. This colt’s stalking/grinding win in the GIII Peter Pan S. on opening day at Saratoga (95 Beyer) caught the eye because of the deft, corner-cutting move turning for home executed by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. And when a fresh threat emerged in deep stretch, Country Grammer was emboldened by the challenge, digging in and ripping back the lead before edging away to a neck victory under confident handling. Trainer Chad Brown said post-race that his colt seems suited to longer distances, and he also noted that Country Grammer just didn’t seem to care for the Belmont Park surface, over which he trained only okay and finished third in a contentious June 4 allowance. This is a fresh face within the Top 12 who is two-for-two over nine furlongs by a sire who won the 1 1/2-mile GI Belmont S. Now he’s stretching out again over a racing strip he seems to relish for a trainer who generally doesn’t wheel horses back this quickly–look out.

6) THOUSAND WORDS (c, Pioneerof the Nile–Pomeroys Pistol, by Pomeroy)
O-Albaugh Family Stables & Spendthrift Farm. B-Hardacre Farm (Fl). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 7-4-1-0, $327,000.
Last Start: 1st Shared Belief S., DMR, Aug. 1
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Feb. 1; 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 83.

Which is the real Thousand Words? The million-dollar Keeneland September purchase who reigned as the No. 1 kingpin on this list for most of the winter and wired the Shared Belief S. with a 104 Beyer on Saturday? Or the well-backed Pioneerof the Nile bay who lost two important preps in March and April by a combined 41 lengths? In the Shared Belief, Thousand Words broke professionally and assumed command at the head of the four-horse field, dictating a moderate tempo while not seriously pressured until the top of the lane. Stablemate Cezanne briefly seized the lead, but Thousand Words clawed it back in workmanlike fashion, responding to repeated urging while the top two threats, Cezanne and Honor A.P., both seemed sapped in deep stretch. The victory wasn’t exactly a display of dominance, but Thousand Words didn’t need to tower over his foes to be considered a legitimate threat for the Derby. He’ll be heading to Churchill on the upswing with a bit of last-race momentum on his side.

7) UNCLE CHUCK (c, Uncle Mo—Forest Music, by Unbridled’s Song)
O-Karl Watson, Michael E. Pegram & Paul Weitman. B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert.
Sales History: $250,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 2-2-0-0, $120,000.
Last Start: 1st GIII Los Alamitos Derby, LRC, July 4
Next Start: GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Uncle Chuck, undefeated in a pair of West Coast two-turn efforts, will get an immersion in the deeper end of the Derby prep pool when he travels cross-country for Saturday’s 10-furlong Runhappy Travers S. at Saratoga. This colt’s form got a boost this past weekend when stablemate Thousand Words, who had finished second to Uncle Chuck in the July 4 GIII Los Alamitos Derby, came back to wire the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar at 9-1 odds. This Bob Baffert trainee has fired three straight training bullets at Del Mar, but don’t overlook the in-race stamina seasoning Uncle Chuck got when he raced over the Los Al strip. At 1,380 feet, it’s the longest in North America.

8) SHARED SENSE (c, Street Sense—Collective, by Bernardini)
O/B-Godolphin LLC (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-3-2-0, $322,112.
Last Start: 1st GIII Indiana Derby, IND, July 8
Next Start: Possible for Runhappy Ellis Park Derby, ELP, Aug. 9
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 20.

Shared Sense broke through the Kentucky Derby relevance barrier with a track-record win in the nine-furlong GIII Indiana Derby July 8, but the race in his past performance block that might end up being the truer benchmark for where he belongs in the Kentucky Derby picture is his second-place effort two starts back behind Art Collector. Shared Sense was 6 1/2 lengths behind that fast-rising foe back on June 13 in an allowance/optional claimer. Has he improved enough in the last two months to be on even terms with the No. 2-ranked contender? This Street Sense homebred for Godolphin could get a shot at a rematch if he’s entered in Sunday’s Runhappy Ellis Park Derby. Shared Sense breezed a half mile in :50.40 (54/75) on Sunday at Churchill Downs.

9) AUTHENTIC (c, Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Fred
Hertrich III, John D. Fielding & Golconda Stables. B-Peter E. Blum
Thoroughbreds LLC (KY). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $350,000
yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GISW, 5-4-1-0,
$1,011,200.
Last Start: 1st GI TVG.com Haskell Invitational S., MTH, July 18
Accomplishments include: 2nd GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, June 5; 1st GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 7; 1st
GIII Sham S., SA, Jan. 4.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 200.

It’s not often that a Derby contender wins a million-dollar race yet gets downgraded within the Top 12 pecking order. But that’s the case with Authentic’s GI Haskell S. victory. Even though he got the job done and earned a 100 Beyer, he left the overall impression of needing to step up his game if he’s to withstand intensified pace pressure in a 20-horse field going 10 furlongs. Authentic was 3-5 against a field of six and secured an easy lead through tepid fractions. He was home free by three lengths at the eighth pole, but caved in the final furlong before being reawakened by a desperate flurry of right-handed stick work from jockey Mike Smith to salvage a nose victory. In the aftermath of the Haskell, both Smith and trainer Bob Baffert referenced focus issues that included Authentic gawking around, shying from shadows, and “playing” when he should have been working. Authentic has considerable pace-pressing talent, but also a history of tardy breaks and losing concentration in the stretch. Smith said he intentionally rode Authentic assertively for about a pole past the finish as a schooling measure that might pay off next time. Baffert suggested blinkers could be next.

10) ENFORCEABLE (c, Tapit—Justwhistledixie, by Dixie Union)
O-John Oxley. B-Clearsky Farm (KY). T-Mark Casse. Sales History:
$775,000 RNA yrl ’18 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP,
10-2-2-2, $367,150.
Last Start: 4th GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, July 11
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 18; 3rd GI
Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, KEE, Oct. 5, 2nd GII Risen Star S.
Div. 1, FG, Feb. 15.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 43.

If the Derby were run today, Enforceable would be about 30-1. But he would still be tough to exclude from exotics because both his stamina-centric pedigree and running style suggest that when pace and trip circumstances align, the tools are there for this colt to run right by everybody in the stretch over 10 furlongs. Even though the race record of this expensive KEESEP buyback isn’t stellar (2-for-10 with only a MSW and the GIII Lecomte S. to his credit), do you really want to toss out a Mark Casse-conditioned horse who will have had six weeks of training over the Churchill surface by race day? Especially if the race ends up being front-loaded with sacrificial speed? Enforceable seemed to be fighting a significant first-flight bias at Keeneland while adrift on both turns when fourth in the Blue Grass S. behind duelers who finished 8 1/2 lengths clear of the pack. He breezed five-eighths on Saturday in 1:02.60 (14/19), starting two lengths behind a fellow Tapit-sired maiden workmate, then finishing about a half-length to the good at the wire before continuing in front through a six-furlong gallop out of 1:15.80.

11) SOLE VOLANTE (g, Karakontie {Jpn}—Light Blow, by Kingmambo)
O-Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, Andie Biancone & Limelight
Stables Corp. B-Flaxman Holdings Limited (KY). T-Patrick
Biancone. Sales History: $6,000 yrl ’18 KEESEP; $20,000 2yo ’19
OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-4-1-1, $323,310.
Last Start: 6th GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Sam F. Davis S., TAM, Feb. 8,
1st Pulpit S., GP, Nov. 30, 2nd GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay
Derby, TAM, Mar. 7.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, Sept. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 30.

Sole Volante will be up against the grain of conventionality as he points to the Derby as the lone remaining Top 12 contender still based in Florida: he’s a gelding who generally trains over the turf at Palm Meadows, he’s cutting it close for eligibility points (currently 19th on the cutoff list with 30), and he’ll be sporting a 78-day layoff line by the time the first Saturday in September rolls around. Yet the son of Karakontie had a solid-enough early-career foundation of turf and dirt races (all at 7 1/2 furlongs or longer)–replete with Beyers in the 90s range (four times)–to think that he should be able to bounce back off a summer freshening better than some of his peers. Sole Volante is a light-framed stayer who probably won’t require a ton of work to get race ready over the next 4 1/2 weeks. Even though his Breeders’ Cup Mile-winning sire’s sweet spot was eight furlongs, his dam’s only win in England was in a 14-furlong race, so the 10-furlong Derby is theoretically within his scope.

12) MAX PLAYER (c, Honor Code—Fools in Love, by Not For Love)
O-George E. Hall & SportBLX Thoroughbreds Corp. B-K&G
Stables (KY). T-Linda Rice. Sales History: $150,000 RNA yrl ’18
KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 4-2-1-1, $273,500.
Last Start: 3rd GI Belmont S., BEL, June 20
Accomplishments Include: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 1
Next Start: GI Runhappy Travers S., SAR, Aug. 8.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40

This first-crop Honor Code colt ($150,000 KEESEP RNA) currently rates as a “work in progress” type of sophomore, and Saturday’s Runhappy Travers S. should provide a clearer read on where he stands and where he’s headed, progression-wise. He has yet to run a poor race (2-1-1 from four starts). But one of those wins was a Parx maiden against only five rivals and the other was in the Feb. 1 GIII Withers when he pressed a tiring favored pacemaker into submission through moderate fractions. Max ran third in the Belmont S. behind Tiz the Law, and that effort was credible considering this inexperienced colt was coming off a 4 1/2-month layoff. But now that five horses have run back out of the Belmont, that race doesn’t look as strong on paper as did six weeks ago: Four Belmont starters have come back and lost next-out graded stakes, while one returned to win an allowance at Colonial Downs.

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