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Taking Stock: Young Stallions Dominate Derby Points Leaders

Led by Three Chimneys's Gun Runner (Candy Ride {Arg}), young stallions with either first- or second-crop representatives account for 11 of the 20 leading point getters for the GI Kentucky Derby, and quite a few of these stallions, Gun Runner included, have the top 12 leading points earners for the GI Longines Kentucky Oaks as well.

First-Crop 3-year-olds

Gun Runner, whose first crop is three, has, incredibly, sired four individual Grade I winners so far, the latest of which is Zedan Racing's remarkable Taiba, who won the GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby Saturday in only his second lifetime start. A $1.7-million purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Florida Select 2-year-olds in training sale, Taiba has earned 100 Derby points, tying him for fifth place on the list with Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}) and Gold Square's Cyberknife (Gun Runner), a $400,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase who won the Gl Arkansas Derby the weekend before. Gun Runner is also represented by Klaravich Stables's Early Voting, who lost Saturday for the first time in three starts when second by a neck to Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo) in the GII Wood Memorial S. Early Voting, who has 50 points, was a $200,000 Keeneland September yearling.

Among filles, Gun Runner has the undefeated Grade I winner Echo Zulu, last year's champion 2-year-old filly, with 130 points for the Oaks (as well as Shotgun Hottie, outside the top 12 with 41 points). A $300,000 Keeneland September yearling who races for L and N Racing and Winchell Thoroughbreds, Echo Zulu is second only to Kathleen O. with 150 points.

Echo Zulu won her season debut in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks by a nose from Hidden Connection (Connect), a Grade III winner at two from the first crop of Lane's Ends's Connect (Curlin)–also the sire of 2-year-old Grade I winner Rattle N Roll, sixth most recently in the GI Toyota Blue Grass S. An $85,000 OBS June 2-year-old racing for Hidden Brook Farm and Black Type Thoroughbreds, Hidden Connection has 57 points for the Oaks, which puts her among the leading 12.

Juddmonte's late Arrogate (Unbridled's Song) hasn't dazzled like Gun Runner, but his first-crop daughter Secret Oath is one of the best 3-year-old fillies in the country. She was third last out in the Arkansas Derby to Cyberknife and prior to that had dominated fillies at Oaklawn, including a 7 1/2-length score in the GIII Honeybee S. A homebred for Briland Farm, Secret Oath has 80 points for the Oaks, but note that Yuugiri (Shackleford), who won the GIII Fantasy at Oaklawn when Secret Oath took on the boys and has 114 points for the Oaks, was a well-beaten third in the Honeybee.

Coolmore America's Cupid (Tapit) is the sire of first-crop daughter Desert Dawn, an Arizona-bred who won the GII Santa Anita Oaks Saturday by a neck from the previously undefeated Adare Manor (Uncle Mo). She has 108 points for the Oaks and is a homebred for H and E Ranch.
GIII Gotham S. winner Morello (Classic Empire) lost for the first time in four starts in the Wood Memorial after a bad start, finishing sixth, and will reportedly not head to the Derby. Nevertheless, the first-crop son of Coolmore America's Classic Empire (Pioneerof the Nile) has 50 Derby points and races for Blue Lion Thoroughbreds, Craig Taylor, and Diamond T. Racing. He was a $250,000 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic 2-year-old.

Second-Crop 3-year-olds

Taylor Made's Not This Time (Giant's Causeway) is the sire of GII Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter, who leads all colts with 164 points for the Derby. Epicenter races for Winchell Thoroughbreds and was a $260,000 Keeneland September buy. Not This Time, who had his second top-level winner Saturday when first-crop 4-year-old filly Just One Time won the GI Madison S., is also represented by GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. winner Simplification, with 74 points. Simplification, who was third in the GI Curlin Florida Derby Saturday, races for Tami Bobo and was a $50,000 RNA at Keeneland November as a weanling. Both Epicenter and Simplification, by the way, are from Candy Ride mares–which is the reverse cross of Gun Runner, who is by Candy Ride from a Giant's Causeway mare.

Airdrie's Upstart (Flatter) has been a revelation this season. He's the sire of Jeff Drown's Zandon, a $170,000 Keeneland September yearling who won the Blue Grass Saturday and sits second on the Derby-points list with 114 behind Epicenter. Upstart is also the sire of Winngate's Kathleen O., a $275,000 OBS April 2-year-old who is undefeated in four starts and won the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks earlier this month.

Like Upstart, Darley's Nyquist (Uncle Mo) has contenders for both the Derby and Oaks with second-crop 3-year-olds. The Derby-winning stallion's son Slow Down Andy, a homebred for Reddam Racing, won the GIII Sunland Park Derby at the end of March and has 60 Derby points. Nyquist's filly Turnerloose likewise has 60 points for the Oaks. Owned by Ike and Dawn Thrash, Turnerloose won the GII Rachel Alexandra S. in February and most recently was fourth in the Fair Grounds Oaks behind Echo Zulu and Hidden Connection. The Thrashes purchased Turnerloose for $50,000 at Keeneland September.

Claiborne's resurgent Runhappy (Super Saver) is the sire of Smile Happy, with 70 points. A $185,000 purchase from the Fasig-Tipton Selected Yearlings Showcase, Smile Happy races in the colors of Lucky Seven Stable and was a Grade II winner last year. In two starts this season, Smile Happy was second in both the Blue Grass and the GII Risen Star S.

Hit It a Bomb (War Front), who stands at Spendthrift, is the sire of Magdalena Racing's Tiz the Bomb, winner of the GIII Jeff Ruby Steaks S. He sold for $330,000 at the same Fasig-Tipton select sale as Smile Happy and Cyberknife and has 110 points.

The late Laoban (Uncle Mo), who started his stud career at Sequel in New York and was later transferred to WinStar in Kentucky, is the sire of Cypress Creek Equine's and Whispering Oaks Farm's Un Ojo, winner of the GII Rebel S. Un Ojo, a one-eyed gelding, was most recently off the board in the Arkansas Derby but has 54 points for the Derby.

Among the filles, Crestwood's Firing Line (Line of David) is represented by Venti Valentine, owned by NY Final Furlong Racing and Parkland Thoroughbreds. Bred by NY Final Furlong and Maspeth Stable, the homebred won the GII Demoiselle S. last year and was second Saturday in the GIII Gazelle S. Venti Valentine has 94 points for the Oaks.

The 11 colts by these sires are Taiba, Cyberknife, Early Voting, Morello, Epicenter, Simplification, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Zandon, Tiz the Bomb, and Un Ojo. If you subtract the Japanese entrant–Crown Pride–that's 11 of 19, and if you add in four third-crop 3-year-olds with points in the top 20, then 15 of 19, or an astonishing 79% of the top domestic points earners for the Kentucky Derby this year, were conceived by stallions which had no runners at the time of conception.

Who are the sires of the third-crop 3-year-olds? Exported former Spendthrift stallion Race Day (Tapit) is the sire of White Abarrio, winner of the Florida Derby with 112 points, and Barber Road, second in the Arkansas Derby, with 58 points. Coolmore America's Triple Crown winner American Pharoah (Pioneerof the Nile) is represented by Forbidden Kingdom, who, until a last-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, was one of the leading hopes in California with 50 points. And Airdrie's Summer Front (War Front) is the sire of Summer Is Tomorrow, the second-place finisher in the G2 UAE Derby, with 40 points.

That's quite an endorsement for those that patronize or buy weanlings, yearlings, or 2-year-olds by unproven horses. And this isn't necessarily a fluke, either. A year ago, I wrote this piece, “First-Crop Success in Classics,” that examined the sires of U.S. Classic winners from 2001 to 2020 and noted that close to 50% of them were from either the first or second crops of their respective sires.
The four North American-breds by proven sires with Derby points are Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo), with 112; Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway), with 66; Messier (Empire Maker), with 40; and Zozos (Munnings), with 40.

Sid Fernando is president and CEO of Werk Thoroughbred Consultants, Inc., originator of the Werk Nick Rating and eNicks.

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Make It Big Battles Osbourne Through Stretch To Take Springboard Mile

Make It Big earned 10 qualifying points in the 2022 Kentucky Derby standings Friday night, winning the $401,200 Springboard Mile for 2-year-olds at Remington Park in Oklahoma City, Okla.

The top 2-year-old race of the Remington Park season provided the stage for the third win in a row to start the career of Make It Big, who has never raced on Lasix. Kentucky Derby points are awarded to horses only if they have not raced on the diuretic during the qualifying races. The other horse earning points in the Springboard was runner-up Osbourne, who gets four in the Derby standings. The third and fourth place finishers, Concept and Classic Moment, both from trainer Steve Asmussen's barn, competed with Lasix on Friday night.

Rick Sacco, racing manager for Make it Big's owner, Red Oak Stable in Ocala, Fla., was non-committal on where Make It Big's first start as a 3-year-old will be in 2022, but the dark bay colt by Neolithic, out of the Congrats mare Ruby on My Mind, won his first two races at Gulfstream Park in Hallandale Beach, Fla. The $120,000 purchase at the Ocala Breeders Sale Spring Sale of 2-year-olds in training has quickly earned his keep. He won $240,000 from the purse Friday and is now undefeated through three attempts with total earnings of $303,828.

“Yes, we will enjoy these Kentucky Derby points,” said Sacco, “but we will have to discuss where we send him next.”

Sarah Shaffer, trainer Saffie Joseph, Jr.'s assistant, was on hand for the victory, just having met the horse for the first time this week. She stables at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, La.

“He has a personality and a half,” she said. “We expected the cold weather to sharpen him up here.”

Temperatures were brisk in the high 40s when seven horses broke from the gate for the Springboard. Make It Big was feeling his oats in the warmup. Jockey Jose Ortiz was putting everything he had to keep the colt in his skin before the race.

“We really wanted to get him warmed up,” said Shaffer. “He's very smart. He knew what he was here for. Nice horse.”

Make It Big broke his maiden on Oct. 9 at Gulfstream, winning by 8 1/2 lengths at first asking. He then took down the $60,000 Ocala Stud Juvenile Sprint Stakes for Florida-breds at Gulfstream by 2 1/4 lengths on Oct. 30. Both of those wins came at seven furlongs and with jockey Edgard Zayas in the saddle. Friday night's Springboard was his first trip around two turns.

“The horse was two-for-two with Edgard,” said Ortiz, who shipped in from the East Coast for the mount. “Unfortunately, Edgard couldn't ride because he had to have surgery on his shoulder.”

Ortiz, the No. 4 rider in the country with his horses earning more than $24 million in 2021, wasn't a bad substitute and he rode Make It Big to perfection. He took the winner's circle photos with the garland of flowers wrapped around his shoulders from head to near his feet.

Ortiz let Make It Big settle in fifth down the backstretch and then asked for a run at the top of the stretch. By that time the colt was rolling and he engaged Osbourne who took the lead before the field left the final turn. Make It Big battled neck and neck with Osbourne throughout the length of the stretch, gaining a half-length win at the finish.

Osbourne is trained by Ron Moquett of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner fame, Whitmore. Osbourne, a 2-year-old gelded son of Tapiture, out of the Rock Hard Ten mare Planet Rock also has not raced on Lasix in three tries. He broke his maiden in his last start at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky., on Nov. 17 at seven furlongs. Julien Leparoux, his regular rider, fought gamely from the outside post position in the field of seven. He was three lengths ahead of third-place finisher Concept, winner of the $75,000 Kip Deville Stakes on Sept. 26 at Remington.

The remaining order of finish in the Springboard was Classic Moment (4th), Rowdy Rascal (5th), Revenir (6th), and Bye Bye Bobby (7th).

Make It Big was sent off at 6-5 odds as the betting favorite and paid $4.60 to win, $3.40 to place, and $2.60 to show. The winner cut into early fractions of :24.77 for the first quarter-mile, :49.22 for the half-mile, 1:14.94 for three-quarters of a mile, and 1:27.86 for seven furlongs. His winning time at the mile was 1:41.23 over the fast main surface.

Make It Big is doing his best to put his young sire, Neolithic, on the map. That stallion went to stud in 2018 and Make It Big was foaled in 2019. Neolithic has some classic bloodlines, being a son of Harlan's Holiday, and his stud fee might soar if this horse proves to be worthy on the Kentucky Derby trail. Neolithic's stud fee for 2022 is $5,000 for a live foal. Harlan's Holiday won $3.6 million in his racing career, including Grade 1 wins in the Florida Derby, the Blue Grass Stakes, and the Donn Handicap.

Make It Big is easily Neolithic's top earner among his progeny.

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Slow Down Andy Joins Five Others With 10 Kentucky Derby Qualifying Points

With his victory over 1-2 favorite Messier in Saturday's Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos racecourse in Cypress, Calif., Reddam Racing's Slow Down Andy earned 10 qualifying points for the May 7, 2022, Kentucky Derby. The Doug O'Neill-trained colt by Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist joins five others with 10 points each, two points behind the current leader, Mark Casse-trained Pappacap, runner-up behind Corniche in both the G1 American Pharoah Stakes and G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

Corniche, like other horses trained by Bob Baffert, is ineligible for Derby points and the Derby itself, as long as he is in the stable of the Hall of Fame horseman, who has been excluded through June 2023 from participation at all tracks owned by Churchill Downs Inc., including its flagship operation in Louisville, Ky., where the Derby is run.

Churchill Downs Inc. took the action against Baffert when it was revealed the 2021 Derby winner, Medina Spirit, failed a post-race drug test. No regulatory action has been taken against Medina Spirit or Baffert by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission, which has yet to schedule a hearing on the matter. Baffert and his attorneys contend the positive drug test for the corticosteroid betamethasone was the result of an ointment they said Baffert's veterinarian prescribed for a skin rash a month before the Kentucky Derby.

Medina Spirit's failed test was the fifth (and second for betamethasone) alleged violation compiled by Baffert over a 365-day period. His previous betamethasone positive test was for the champion filly Gamine after she finished third as the odds-on favorite in the 2020 Kentucky Oaks. She was disqualified and placed ninth.

The Baffert-trained duo of Messier finished second and Barossa finished third in the Los Alamitos Futurity but did not earn any points. Fourth-place finisher Durante, also from the O'Neill barn, finished fourth, earning one point.

The next qualifying points race on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is Friday's Springboard Mile at Remington Park, offering 10-4-2-1 points to the top four finishers.

Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks standings plus Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks race schedule

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Global Views: The Impact Of The Points System

In Global Views, Godolphin Flying Start trainees provide insight into practices experienced and observations taken on their worldwide travels. First-year trainee Marine Moussa examines the impact of the Kentucky Derby points system that was implemented nine years ago.

The 147th running of the Kentucky Derby is this Saturday and the excitement after four months of preparation has reached its climax. The 20 contenders have qualified for the Kentucky Derby through a points system that was implemented in 2013. The system, called 'The Road to the Kentucky Derby', features 20 races for the preparatory season and 16 for the championship series. The 'Run for the Roses' used to be much more accessible to horses who had done their best running at two, and sprinters, when graded stakes earnings criteria was used to gain a position in the starting gate. Now, qualification for the race is weighted heavily towards 3-year-olds that have done their best running more recently and in races over a mile or longer.

Has the quality of the Kentucky Derby field changed since the Road to the Kentucky Derby was implemented? A look at the median Beyer speed-figure of each Kentucky Derby field taken from each runner's last start before the Derby did not suggest so. Comparing Kentucky Derby fields under the points system with what they would have been with the old graded stakes earnings system could be a lead for further research. What we can observe is not so much a change in the quality of the field, but a difference in composition of the Derby field to select and favour 3-year-old horses with Classic-distance form.

Before 2013, more horses that had picked up significant earnings in 2-year-old races, and sprinters, were eligible for the Derby. These horses may have had good 2-year-old form, but may not have trained on into their 3-year-old campaigns or excelled in two-turn races. Take the recent example of last year's GI Champagne S. and GI Hopeful S. winner Jackie's Warrior (Maclean's Music): He was a very good 2-year-old and considered an early favourite for the Derby, but he has been beaten in both his tries around two turns, indicating that he is a sprinter/miler rather than a Classic-distance colt, and that is the route connections have now taken. Under the old graded stakes earnings system, Jackie's Warrior would have qualified for a position in the Derby off his early 2-year-old form. The new system is weighted towards 3-year-olds that can make an impact at the American middle distances and that have more potential to be Triple Crown winners. Since the points system was implemented in 2013, there have been two Triple Crown winners–American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018)–within three years; The most recent Triple Crown winners previously had been Affirmed in 1978 and Seattle Slew in 1977. The points system rewards horses that can win or place in races just before the Derby. The goal is to have more true 1 1/4 mile horses running in top form closer to the Derby. Horses that exclusively did their best running at two get fewer points and 3-year-old sprint races get none.

It is also interesting to consider how the switch to the points system might affect how the race is run. There have been a few instances where sprinters–horses that did their best running at less than a mile before and after the Kentucky Derby–ran in the Derby and pressed the pace and tired before reaching the stretch, helping to set the race up for a stalker or closer. In the 133rd running of the Kentucky Derby in 2007, Teuflesberg–who won the one-mile GIII Southwest S. prior to the Derby and the seven-furlong GII Woody Stephen S. after–pressed the front-running Hard Spun before fading to finish 17th. Hard Spun stayed on for second, and the winner was the post-time favourite Street Sense, who was 19th of the 20 runners early. Interestingly, Teuflesberg's son, Trinniberg, had a similar run in the Derby in 2012. He sat second and pressed Bodemeister through some of the fastest fractions in the history of the race. Like Hard Spun, Bodemeister held second and Trinniberg faded to 17th; just like his sire, he was backing up by the time he reached the mile marker. The winner was the stalking I'll Have Another. Trinniberg bookended his Kentucky Derby run with graded stakes wins over seven furlongs, and later that year was named champion sprinter after winning the GI Breeders' Cup Sprint over six furlongs. It is not impossible, of course, under the new system for a horse to press the pace and fade or fail to stay, but the points system at least favours horses that look likely to see out the trip.

The Road to the Kentucky Derby has changed the composition of the field and therefore the dynamic of the race. If the points system had been in place at that time, Teuflesberg and Trinniberg represent two examples of horses that would likely have not qualified for the race. The new points system has placed on emphasis on horses with 3-year-old middle-distance form and continues to preserve the prestige of ensuring a spot in the 'Run for the Roses.'

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