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From the TIF: The Future of Derby Futures & Modernizing Betting

The speed of legal sports betting's expansion across America in the last four years has surprised even the most bullish advocates. On any given day in a majority of states, Americans can bet on just about any outcome in the world of sports.

The next point in a game of tennis. The total runs in the next inning of a baseball game. The number of corner kicks for a team in a soccer match.

But if you legally wanted to bet on the Kentucky Derby other than the day before or day of the race, you have but a few weekends to place pari-mutuel bets, in limited pools, and through underdeveloped advanced deposit wagering.

Churchill Downs offered five opportunities to bet Derby futures for its 2022 edition, to be run this coming Saturday. Win and exacta pools were available, as well as a bet on the winner's sire and the sires of the exacta finishers. Total handle across all of the Derby-only pools was $1.88 million. An Oaks/Derby double future was offered and handled less than $85,000.

Roll back the clock to 2002 and Derby future betting was just three pools over three weekends with win betting only. Total handle that year was a combined $1.5 million which when adjusted for inflation, equates to about $2.36 million today. Despite additional pools and dates, interest measured by inflation-adjusted handle is down about 20%.

Sports betting is not legal in Kentucky at present, but that would not preclude Churchill Downs from striking future deals with operators in states that permit fixed-odds betting on racing.

The opportunity for the Kentucky Derby and its qualifying series to dominate the landscape in coming years is strong. While pari-mutuel futures on the big race have stagnated, a far more diverse market of fixed-odds opportunities should be within reach.

Click here to read the rest of this piece from the Thoroughbred Idea Foundation.

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Epicenter Morning-Line Favorite in Final Derby Future Wager

Fans will have the final pari-mutuel opportunity to bet on this year's GI Kentucky Derby in advance of the May 7 race beginning Thursday at noon ET through Saturday at 4:30 p.m. ET for Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (“KDFW”). Pool 5 of the KDFW features 24 betting interests and the 5-1 early morning-line favorite is Winchell Thoroughbreds' GII TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby winner Epicenter (Not This Time).

Unlike the previous three-day Kentucky Derby Future Wager opportunities, Pool 5 will feature an early start Thursday and will close Saturday prior to the first Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series event held that day. Nine individual betting interests in Saturday's pool are expected to run in that day's GI Toyota Blue Grass S., GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby and GII Wood Memorial S.

Here is the complete field for Pool 5 of the KDFW (with sire, trainer and morning-line odds): #1 Barber Road (Race Day, John Ortiz, 50-1); #2 Charge It (Tapit, Todd Pletcher, 12-1); #3 Crown Pride (Jpn) (Reach the Crown {Jpn}, Koichi Shintani, 50-1); #4 Cyberknife (Gun Runner, Brad Cox, 12-1); #5 Early Voting (Gun Runner, Chad Brown, 20-1); #6 Emmanuel (More Than Ready, Pletcher, 20-1); #7 Epicenter (Steve Asmussen, 5-1); #8 Ethereal Road (Quality Road, D. Wayne Lukas, 50-1); #9 Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah, Richard Mandella, 8-1); #10 In Due Time (Not This Time, Kelly Breen, 50-1); #11 Messier (Empire Maker, Tim Yakteen, 8-1); #12 Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo, Pletcher, 20-1); #13 Morello (Classic Empire, Asmussen, 20-1); #14 Pioneer of Medina (Pioneerof the Nile Pletcher, 30-1); #15 Simplification (Not This Time, Antonio Sano, 15-1): #16 Slow Down Andy (Nyquist, Doug O'Neill, 50-1); #17 Smile Happy (Runhappy, Kenny McPeek, 6-1); #18 Summer Is Tomorrow (Summer Front, Bhupat Seemar, 50-1); #19 Tawny Port (Pioneerof the Nile, Cox, 50-1); #20 Tiz the Bomb (Hit It a Bomb, McPeek, 12-1); #21 White Abarrio (Race Day, Saffie Joseph, Jr., 8-1); #22 Zandon (Upstart, Brown, 20-1); #23 Zozos (Munnings, Cox, 30-1); #24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (15-1).

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Final Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pushed to Next Week

The fifth and final pool of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW), which was scheduled for Mar. 31-Apr. 2, will be delayed one week and now will run Thursday, Apr. 7 through Saturday, Apr. 9.

“Our future wager selection committee met Monday and wanted to use a few key horses within the top 23 betting interests, specifically the filly Secret Oath, who runs in Saturday's Arkansas Derby, and the runner-up in last weekend's UAE Derby, Summer Is Tomorrow,” said Darren Rogers, Churchill Downs' Senior Director of Communications and Media Services.

“Upon learning that a pivot to next week wasn't complicated from a technical standpoint, we reached out to the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission for approval to move Pool 5 to next week. We truly believe this is in the best interest of bettors to delay the wager by one week to allow a clearer picture after this weekend's Florida Derby, Arkansas Derby and Jeff Ruby Steaks, and to better understand the status of horses who intend to ship to Churchill Downs for Kentucky Derby 148.”

The field of 24 betting interests will be announced Tuesday. The three-day pool will run April 7-9 and close prior to the first Road to the Kentucky Derby Championship Series race that Saturday afternoon (time to be announced).

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Forbidden Kingdom Made Future Wager Favorite

Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah), the dominant winner of this past Saturday's GII San Felipe S. owned by micro-share syndicate MyRacehorse and Spendthrift Farm, has been installed the 5-1 morning-line favorite in the fourth of five Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) pools. Wagering will be offered Friday through Sunday.

The 24 betting interests are as follows (new interests denoted with an asterisk): #1 Barber Road (Race Day, 50-1); #2 Call Me Midnight (Midnight Lute, 50-1); #3 Charge It* (Tapit, 30-1); #4 Classic Causeway (Giant's Causeway, 15-1); #5 Cyberknife* (Gun Runner, 50-1); #6 Early Voting (Gun Runner, 30-1); #7 Emmanuel (More Than Ready, 15-1); #8 Epicenter (Not This Time, 8-1); #9 Ethereal Road* (Quality Road, 50-1); #10 Forbidden Kingdom (American Pharoah, 5-1); #11 In Due Time (Not This Time, 30-1); #12 Major General (Constitution, 50-1); #13 Mo Donegal (Uncle Mo, 12-1); #14 Morello* (Classic Empire, 10-1); #15 Pioneer of Medina* (Pioneerof the Nile, 30-1); #16 Rattle N Roll (Connect, 20-1); #17 Shipsational* (Midshipman, 50-1); #18 Simplification (Not This Time, 12-1); #19 Smile Happy (Runhappy, 6-1); #20 Un Ojo* (Laoban, 50-1); #21 White Abarrio (Race Day, 15-1); #22 Zandon (Upstart, 12-1); #23 Zozos* (Munnings, 50-1); and #24 “All Other 3-Year-Olds” (6-1).

The lone Kentucky Oaks Future wager will also be offered this weekend, with champion 2-year-old filly Echo Zulu (Gun Runner) getting the morning line nod at 4-1 over streaking Secret Oath (Arrogate).

The entire KOFW field is as follows: #1 A Mo Reay (Uncle Mo, 30-1); #2 Ain't Easy (Into Mischief, 20-1); #3 Awake At Midnyte (Nyquist, 20-1); #4 Bernabreezy (Bernardini, 50-1); #5 Bubble Rock (More Than Ready, 30-1); #6 Classy Edition (Classic Empire, 15-1); #7 Echo Zulu (Gun Runner, 4-1); #8 Fannie and Freddie (Malibu Moon, 30-1); #9 Favor (Pioneerof the Nile, 20-1); #10 Goddess of Fire (Mineshaft, 20-1); #11 Hidden Connection (Connect, 50-1); #12 Ice Orchid (Super Saver, 50-1); #13 Juju's Map (Cox, 10-1); #14 Kathleen O. (Upstart, 8-1); #15 Nest (Curlin, 8-1); #16 Nostalgic (Medaglia d'Oro, 20-1); #17 Sandstone (Street Sense, 15-1); #18 Secret Oath (Arrogate, 6-1); #19 Shahama (Munnings, 30-1); #20 Turnerloose (Nyquist, 15-1); #21 Venti Valentine (Firing Line, 15-1); #22 Veterans Highway (Quality Road, 50-1); #23 Yuugiri (Shackleford, 50-1); and #24 “All Other 3-Year-Old Fillies” (10-1).

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