The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for April 11

Prep season for the GI Kentucky Oaks is over and we have a pretty good idea of who is going to be in the race and which ones are the horses to beat. With three major preps–the GI Ashland S., the GII Santa Anita Oaks and the GIII Gazelle S.–all run over the weekend, there was plenty of movement in our Top 10. But the very solid Tarifa (Bernardini) maintains the top spot for Brad Cox.

Here's a look at the latest installment of our Kentucky Oaks Top Ten:

1) TARIFA (f, Bernardini–Kite Beach, by Awesome Again)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star', MGSW, 5-4-0-0, $518,925. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 3.

Had someone done something spectacular in the GI Ashland S. at Keeneland, 'TDN Rising Star' Tarifa might have been knocked down a peg. It didn't happen that way. Tarifa's stablemate, Impel (Quality Road), who was getting all the hype prior to the Ashland ran third, but does not have enough points to get into the Oaks. There's just no knocks on Tarifa, who is four-for-five lifetime and is riding a three-race winning streak. She faced a tough bunch in the GII Fair Grounds Oaks Presented by Fasig-Tipton and prevailed. She's more steady than spectacular, but you know she will show up on Oaks Day for trainer Brad Cox, who will be seeking his third win in this race.

2) LESLIE'S ROSE (f, Into Mischief–Wildwood Rose {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Whisper Hill Farm; B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock Services (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,150,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star', GISW, 4-3-0-1, $467,800. Last start: WON GI Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 115. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3

The Ashland was easily the best Oaks prep run so far this year, so you have to give a lot of credit to the winner, 'TDN Rising Star' Leslie's Rose. She was bought by owner Mandy Pope at Keeneland September for $1.15 million and got her career off to a fast start, with two straight wins, including a 9 1/4-length romp in her debut. But she stubbed her toe when third at odds of 3-10 in the GII Davona Dale S. on a day when she had no excuses. The betting public all but gave up on her in the Ashland, sending her off at 9-1. It now looks like she may fulfill her potential after all. Trainer Todd Pletcher has won the race four times and will tie all-time leaders Woody Stephens and Wayne Lukas with a win.

3) THORPEDO ANNA (f, Fast Anna–Sataves, by Uncle Mo) O-Brookdale Racing, Inc., Mark Edwards, Judy B. Hicks & Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek); B-Judy Hicks (Ky); T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales history: $40,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star', GSW, 4-3-1-0, $584,363. Last Start: WON GII Fantasy S., Mar. 30. Kentucky Oaks Points: 105. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

Still another 'TDN Rising Star,' she sold for just $40,000 at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Fall Yearling Sale. Trainer Kenny McPeek has a knack for finding good horses that didn't cost a lot and this is the latest example. She won her first two races by a combined margin of 17 1/2 lengths before finishing second in the GII Golden Rod S. as an odds-on favorite. But she was back at her best when scoring an easy four-length win in the GII Fantasy S. The Fantasy will be her only prep for the Oaks, but there's little doubt that McPeek willl have her tight enough and ready for the Kentucky Oaks.

4) JUST F Y I (f, Justify–Star Act, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-George Krikorian (Ky); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Filly, GISW, 4-3-1-0, $1,433,250. Last start: 2nd in GI Ashland S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 90. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

All things considered, she didn't run badly in the Ashland, even if it was her first career defeat. Trainer Bill Mott had to play catch-up after she missed a start in the GII Davona Dale S. with a fever. That meant she had to run well in the Ashland to have enough points to make the Oaks. She had a good trip under Junior Alvarado and looked to be within striking distance at the top of the stretch, but couldn't deliver the knockout punch. Every reason to believe she will run better in the Oaks.

5) POWER SQUEEZE (f, Union Rags–Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again) O-Lea Farms, LLC; B-Forging Oaks Farm, LLC (Ky); T-Jorge Delgado. Sales history: $50,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $90,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-0, $337,450. Last start: WON GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, Mar. 30. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

She flew in under the radar when winning the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks at odds of 11-1. It was her fourth straight win and her third straight in stakes company for high-percentage trainer Jorge Delgado. She originally sold for $50,000 at Keeneland September and then for $90,000 at OBS June. Has seemed to get better as the distances have gotten longer and is 2-for-2 around two turns.

6) WHERE'S MY RING (f, Twirling Candy–Mapit, by Tapit) O-Michael McMillan; B-Don Alberto Corporation (Ky); T-Val Brinkerhoff. Sales history: $100,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 8-1-3-1, $202,620. Last start: WON GIII Gazelle S., Apr. 6. Kentucky Oaks Points: 125. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

You have to give trainer Val Brinkerhoff a lot of credit. He could have stayed on the West Coast with this filly, but that would mean facing off against the Baffert monsters in the GII Santa Anita Oaks. So he shipped her across the country to run in the Gazelle at Aqueduct, where the competition would be lacking. In fact, Where's My Ring was a maiden after seven starts coming into the race, but still went off as the 5-2 favorite. The win was more than good enough to get her into the Oaks, but the competition will much tougher than what she faced last Saturday at the Big A.

7) WAYS AND MEANS (f, Practical Joke–Strong Incentive, Warrior's Reward) O/B-Klaravich Stables (Ky); T-Chad Brown. Lifetime Record: GISP, 'TDN Rising Star,' 3-1-2-0, $165,750. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

Is currently 16th on the leader board when it comes to her getting into the Oaks, so trainer Chad Brown is going to have to hope for some defections. But if she gets in, she can absolutely win. After romping by 12 3/4 lengths in her debut, she was second in the GI Spinaway S., but came out of that race with a chip in an ankle. That's why she didn't make her 3-year-old debut until the Mar. 30 GIIGulfstream Park Oaks. She had a tough trip that day, but managed to run second. Every reason to believe she will be better next time out, whether that's in the Oaks or not.

8) OUR PRETTY WOMAN (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Dazzletown, by Speightstown) O-Courtlandt Farms; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC & Godolphin; T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $900,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $150,200. Last start: 2nd Mar. 23 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 3.

She's 17th on the points list, so is another one who is going to need a break to make it into the Oaks starting gate. Trained by Steve Asmussen, this $900,000 Keeneland yearling purchase won her first two starts and then faced the acid test when meeting Tarifa in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She ran a huge race that day, finishing second, losing by just three-quarters of a length. She's lightly raced and didn't make her debut until Jan. 18 of this year. So there's plenty of room for improvement.

9) WEST OMAHA (f, West Coast–Birthday Bash, by Medaglia d'Oro) O/B-Gary and Mary West (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record:  SW & MGSP, 6-2-3-1, $369,250. Last Start: 2nd GII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 90. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

After she won the Silverbulletday S. Presented by Fasig-Tipton, she looked like she'd be a major player in this division for Brad Cox. Instead, she ran third in the GIII Honeybee S. and second in the Fantasy S. It looks like the rest of the division has caught up to her and passed her. Will need to improve to contend in the Oaks.

10) LEMON MUFFIN (f, Collected–Pelt, by Canadian Frontier) O-Aaron Sones & Julie Gilbert; B-Mr & Mrs Theodore Kuster & Collected Syndicate (Ky); T-D W Lukas. Sales history: $20,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $140,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 7-1-4-0, $324,000. Last Start: 7th GII Fantasy S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.

Sometimes the Wayne Lukas-trained horses run their best when it is least expected. Lemon Muffin was terrible in the Fantasy, losing by 10 3/4 lengths. She was a different horse in her prior start when winning the Honeybee by 3 1/2 lengths at odds of 28-1. She was still a maiden at the time and had never gone beyond seven furlongs. But instead of that race vaulting her forward, it seemed to have caused her to take a step in the wrong direction. Will be a big longshot in the Oaks, but you can never throw the cagey Lukas out.

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Mystik Dan Confirmed for Arkansas Derby, Catching Freedom Possible

Trainer Kenny McPeek confirmed that GIII Southwest S. winner Mystik Dan (Goldencents) is pointing for the GI Arkansas Derby Mar. 30. McPeek said Mystik Dan returned to the Fair Grounds shortly after his eight-length victory in the Southwest, which was postponed a week because of winter weather.

According to McPeek, the 21-day return to the GII Rebel S. factored into McPeek's decision to train Mystik Dan up to the Arkansas Derby. McPeek originally sent Mystik Dan to the Fair Grounds to prepare for the Southwest after arctic temperatures, snow and rain halted training at Oaklawn for 11 days (Jan. 13-23). Mystik Dan recorded three published workouts at Oaklawn–Dec. 23, Dec. 29 and Jan. 12–before heading south.

“He's doing well,” said McPeek, who has divisions at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds. “I skipped a breeze with him this weekend because the track was horrendous, and he'll get teed up for the Arkansas Derby in the next month.”

McPeek indicated Mystik Dan's upcoming works in advance of the Arkansas Derby will be in New Orleans.

“He might come up, like, a week early to work over the track or he may come a few days before the race,” McPeek said.

Mystik Dan kicked off 2024 with a fifth-place finish, beaten 3 1/4 lengths by Catching Freedom, in the Smarty Jones S. Jan. 1.

According to trainer Brad Cox, the Arkansas Derby is also a possibility for Catching Freedom (Constitution).

“Very pleased with the effort,” Cox said. “It looks like he came out of it well.”

Cox won the 2022 Arkansas Derby with Cyberknife and last year with Angel of Empire, who, like Catching Freedom, is owned by Albaugh Family Stables.

“I think right now everything's in play–the Arkansas Derby, Louisiana Derby [Mar. 23], Blue Grass S. [Apr. 6],” Cox said. “I might even throw the Wood [Memorial, Apr. 6] in there. Don't think we would do the Florida Derby or the Santa Anita Derby. But those four races will be on his radar, and we'll pick the one we're thinking makes the most sense. Obviously, he ran well in Arkansas. That gives us some confidence if that's the route to go.”

Catching Freedom (25 points) and Mystik Dan (21) rank fifth and sixth, respectively, on the latest Kentucky Derby leaderboard released by Churchill Downs. The Arkansas Derby offers 200 points (100-50-25-15-10, respectively) to its top five eligible finishers toward Kentucky Derby.

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Kenny McPeek Joins TDN Writers’ Room Podcast

No one was hotter last week than trainer Kenny McPeek, who won two stakes at Oaklawn over the weekend, one a prep for the GI Kentucky Derby, the other a prep for the GI Kentucky Oaks. McPeek scored with the filly Band of Gold (Preservationist), who, at 24-1, won the Martha Washington S. Two races later, it was the colt Mystik Dan (Goldencents), who was an impressive eight-length winner of the GIII Southwest S. at odds of 11-1. That meant there was plenty to talk about when McPeek joined this week's TDN Writers' Room podcast presented by Keeneland. McPeek was the Green Group Guest of the Week.

Though Mystik Dan had been a bit inconsistent during his brief career, McPeek said he always knew the colt had ability.

“This horse is really fast,” McPeek said. “He has been from the beginning. Initially, I ran him twice in sprint races and afterward I kind of regretted it a little bit because we had to retool him a little bit. He's so quick, but you had to kind of re-teach him and he needed to learn how to go longer. What he did this past weekend was pretty special in the sense that we've been teaching him to sit off horses. Let him just go easy and then learn to utilize that speed. The last three furlongs, it looked like he was shot out of a cannon.”

McPeek has won the GI Preakness S. and the GI Belmont S., but a Derby win has eluded him. He came close with his first ever runner Tejano Run (Tejabo), who was second in 1995. But, overall, he is 0-for-9 in America's greatest race. How badly does he want to add a Derby win to his resume?

“For me, being from Kentucky, it is a big deal,” McPeek said. “I think any horse trainer wants to win a race like that. But it's got to come together on its own. If it happens, it happens. If it doesn't, it doesn't. I'm not going to put all my eggs in the one basket and say I haven't won the Derby so I haven't had a full career.”

Band of Gold was a badly beaten fifth in the Untapable S., but McPeek wasn't about to give up on her after she won her debut, a maiden race at Churchill Downs.

“Any filly that wins first time out like she did at Churchill Downs is obviously talented,” he said. “I think that she got a little confused in her second start at the Fair Grounds. We ran her in the Untapable, but she never really figured out what she was supposed to do out there. She was the one that we somewhat had to regroup with.”

In the stallion spotlight segments, the podcast featured Coolmore's Tiz the Law (Constitution), who stands for a fee of $20,000. The focus was also on Audible (Into Mischief), who stands at WinStar Farm for a fee of $15,000.

Elsewhere on the podcast, which is also sponsored by the Pennsylvania Horse Breeders Association, 1/ST Racing, West Point Thoroughbreds, and XBTV.com, the team of Randy Moss, Bill Finley and Zoe Cadman reviewed the ultra-impressive win by Nysos (Nyquist) in the GIII Robert B. Lewis. Because he is trained by Bob Baffert, who remains under a ban at Churchill Downs, he cannot run in the Derby. The panel agreed that the absence of Nysos and the other Baffert runners could turn into the type of controversy that could overshadow the race itself. The discussion also included the GIII Holy Bull S., in which the heavily favored champion Fierceness (City of Light) didn't have the best of trips on his way to a third-place finish. All agreed that it was a subpar race from a horse who shows signs that he can't handle adversity. The podcast closed with a look at the story of trainer Jeffrey Englehart, who is facing a two-year suspension for clenbuterol, which he insists was administered to the horse before it came into his barn.

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Kenny McPeek’s Mystik Dan Upends Oaklawn’s Southwest

One of four Kentucky Derby preps run Saturday, the $800,000 GIII Southwest S. at Oaklawn Park was the richest. It also promised to be the most wide-open betting contest and it didn't disappoint as a mud-splattered 11-1 MYSTIK DAN (c, 3, Goldencents–Ma'am, by Colonel John) pulled the upset for trainer Kenny McPeek. Last fall's Ed Brown S. winner Just Steel (Justify) got up for second while GIII Street Sense S. winner Liberal Arts (Arrogate) secured third. The Southwest offers points on a 20-10-6-4-2 scale for the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Out from the 10 post in the mud, Mystik Dan broke sharply only to angle over to the rail and settle midpack under Brian Hernandez, Jr. Otto the Conqueror (Street Sense), winner of the Springboard Mile S. in December, set a :23.56 and :47.95 pace up front with his ears pricked while previously undefeated race favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Carbone (Mitole) pressured him from the outside. Meanwhile, Mystik Dan bided his time on the rail, with Hernandez carefully concealing the power about to be unleashed. Just Steel, keen early in fourth, collared Otto the Conqueror from the outside off the turn and looked to be running easily while Mystik Dan, so close to the rail he could have scraped paint, found a seam and burst through. The two spent the briefest of moments on even terms before Mystik Dan thumbed his nose at the competition, simply forgetting to stop as he looked stronger with every stride and sailed home eight lengths to the good after being geared down late. It was a visually impressive performance as Just Steel held for second, a neck over a closing Liberal Arts, who was nine lengths clear of the rest.

An open-daylight maiden sprint winner at Churchill in November, Mystik Dan brought a field-best 96 Beyer Speed Figure into the Southwest. Last seen finishing fifth behind Catching Freedom (Constitution) in Oaklawn's Smarty Jones S. on New Year's Day at his first try at the Southwest distance, he had faded in the stretch that day after pressing the pace.

McPeek and Hernandez also teamed up to win Oaklawn's Kentucky Oaks points race on Saturday–the $250,000 Martha Washington S.–with longshot Band of Gold (Preservationist). The pair of victories marked the first wins by each of the veterans in both of the races.

Well clear in the stretch | Coady/Robi Heffington

Pedigree Notes:

A homebred for the team of Lance Gasaway, Daniel Hamby, and 4G Racing LLC, Mystik Dan is out of a Colonel John mare bred by the late Lucy Bassett and originally trained by McPeek. Ma'am, out of a full-sister to GI Hollywood Futurity and GII Lane's End Breeders' Futurity winner Siphonic (Siphon {Brz}), also hails from the same family as GISW Laragh (Tapit), MGSW and sire Summer Front (War Front), and MGSW & GISP Dixie Dot Com (Dixie Brass). Ma'am has a 2-year-old Unified filly named Yes Ma'am and a yearling Knicks Go filly named Ford's Ma'am for the same team. She was bred to Wells Bayou for 2024.

Two-time GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile winner and Spendthrift sire Goldencents has 27 black-type winners worldwide. Mystik Dan is his seventh graded winner while also being the 10th black-type winner out of a daughter of Colonel John. The latter was last reported to be standing in Korea.

 

Saturday, Oaklawn
SOUTHWEST S.-GIII, $800,000, Oaklawn, 2-3, 3yo, 1 1/16m, 1:43.67, my.
1–MYSTIK DAN, 118, c, 3, by Goldencents
                1st Dam: Ma'am, by Colonel John
                2nd Dam: Lady Siphonica, by Siphon (Brz)
                3rd Dam: Cherokee Crossing, by Cherokee Colony
1ST BLACK TYPE WIN, 1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. O/B-Lance
Gasaway, Daniel Hamby & 4G Racing LLC (KY); T-Kenneth G.
McPeek; J-Brian Joseph Hernandez, Jr. $408,000. Lifetime
Record: 5-2-1-0, $510,110. Werk Nick Rating: A+++. *Triple
Plus* Click for the eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree. Click for
the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree.
2–Just Steel, 117, c, 3, Justify–Irish Lights (Aus), by Fastnet Rock
(Aus). 1ST GRADED BLACK TYPE. ($500,000 Ylg '22 KEESEP).
O-BC Stables, LLC; B-Summerhill Farm (KY); T-D. Wayne Lukas.
$136,000.
3–Liberal Arts, 119, c, 3, Arrogate–Ismene, by Tribal Rule.
O/B-Stephen Ferraro & Evan Ferraro (KY); T-Robert Medina.
$68,000.
Margins: 8, NK, 9. Odds: 11.40, 10.30, 4.90.
Also Ran: Awesome Road, Common Defense, Otto the Conqueror, Carbone, Linebacker, Charleston, Magic Grant, Wynstock. Scratched: Maycocks Bay.
Click for the Equibase.com chart and the TJCIS.com PPs. VIDEO, sponsored by FanDuel TV.

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