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The Friday Show Presented By Breeders’ Cup: Hoping To ‘Raise The Bar’ With Our Handicapping

If trainer Bob Baffert can do it, so can we. Days after the Hall of Famer pledged to “raise the bar” in hopes that his high-powered stable can avoid any more failed drug tests (Baffert has had four of them them in three states this year), the Paulick Report gang is inspired to up our game, too. Full disclosure: publisher Ray Paulick is the only known Paulick Report staffer to have flunked a drug test, and the statute of limitations on that transgression have long passed.

We haven't hired any spinmeisters, lawyers or veterinarians, but we've consulted with some of the smartest people we know to help us unravel the daunting handicapping challenges that lie ahead in the five Future Stars Friday races and nine championship events on Saturday that comprise this year's Breeders' Cup at Keeneland in Lexington, Ky.

The aforementioned Paulick, along with editor in chief Natalie Voss, bloodstock editor Joe Nevills and news editor and pony rider to the European stars Chelsea Hackbarth share their astute observations about this year's Breeders' Cup. We think they're astute, but it just might be the scopolamine talking.

If that's not enough, track announcer Larry Collmus, who will call the Breeders' Cup for NBC Sports, offers some insights into how he prepares for this big event and recounts a past race call that caused him to age several years in a matter of minutes.

You don't want to miss this week's Friday Show.

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Breeders’ Cup Presents The News Minute: Can O’Brien Regain Magical Touch?

Two horses have been withdrawn from Saturday's Breeders' Cup world championship races at Keeneland race course in Lexington, Ky.: Inthemidstofbiz from the Filly & Mare Sprint and One Master from the Mile. That follows the news on Wednesday that morning line favorite Vekoma is out of Saturday's Breeders' Cup Sprint.

The scratch of One Master opens the gate for Order of Australia to draw into the Mile from the also-eligible list. The colt by the Galileo stallion Australia is one of six runners expected to run in Breeders' Cup races on Saturday for trainer Aidan O'Brien, who has three entered in the Future Stars Friday races.

In today's edition of the News Minute, Ray Paulick reviews O'Brien's impressive Breeders' Cup statistics: he's second all-time in starts and money won and fourth in wins. But he points out that O'Brien's Breeders' Cup record since 2016 has been anything but “magical.”

Paulick also reveals who he thinks might be the speed of the speed in Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint.

Watch the Breeders' Cup News Minute below.

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Breeders’ Cup Weekend is Here!

Featuring five deep, competitive fields and plenty of intrigue, Future Stars Friday will get the two-day, 37th Breeders’ Cup World Championships festivities underway from historic Keeneland Race Course. First post on the all-stakes card at the bucolic oval, hosting the Breeders’ Cup for the second time, is 11:30 a.m. ET, with the first Breeders’ Cup race set to run at 2:30 p.m. All in all, 184 horses were entered in the 14 World Championship races, which conclude with the highly-anticipated GI Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic, slated for 5:18 p.m. Saturday.

Perfect weather is expected for both days, with sunny skies and temperatures in the low 70s.

Speed will take center stage first in the 5 1/2-furlong GII Juvenile Turf Sprint, which was shaken up when expected heavy favorite Golden Pal (Uncle Mo) drew the 14-hole in a race that features three European shippers and nine stakes winners.

Euro participation picks up significantly in the GI Juvenile Turf, with half of the 14 entrants making their first starts in North America. The one-mile test is one of the most wide open races of the two days, as evidenced by the chilly 5-1 morning-line quote on favored Mutasaabeq (Into Mischief). Aidan O’Brien-trained player Battleground (War Front) is the first foal out of Found (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}), winner of the 2015 GI Breeders’ Cup Turf at Keeneland.

The GI Juvenile Fillies is next, as a short on quantity, long on quality seven-horse group lines up. The race storyline centers around undefeated 9-5 chalk Princess Noor (Not This Time), who has been dominant in all three starts but is yet to crack an 80 Beyer. Three more unblemished fillies give America a strong hand in the GI Juvenile Fillies Turf, as Wesley Ward’s Campanelle (Ire) (Kodiac {GB}) returns home off a Group 1 win in France, and graded stakes winners Aunt Pearl (Ire) (Lope de Vega {Ire}) and Plum Ali (First Samurai) loom large.

The GI TVG Juvenile closes out Friday’s action, and all eyes will be on Jackie’s Warrior (Maclean’s Music). The four-for-four colt has barely broken a sweat in four brilliant outings, including two Grade I triumphs, but faces an abundance of early speed and must navigate two turns for the first time.

Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup action gets underway with the GI Filly & Mare Sprint at 12:02 p.m. Gamine (Into Mischief), who has been brilliant in conquests of the GI Acorn S. and GI Longines Test S. but has also twice tested positive for a banned substance, is installed as a 7-5 favorite. A wide-open GI Turf Sprint headlined by multiple Grade I-winning mare Got Stormy (Get Stormy) follows, and Complexity (Maclean’s Music) drew wide as the favorite in the GI Big Ass Fans Dirt Mile. A deep and international field will contest the GI Maker’s Mark Filly & Mare Turf, as six-time Grade I winner Rushing Fall (More Than Ready) looks for her second Breeders’ Cup win in her likely career finale.

The GI Sprint, which lost its morning-line choice when Vekoma (Candy Ride {Arg}) scratched Thursday, comes next, and a clash of continents provides one of the deepest fields of the weekend in the GI FanDuel Mile. The marquee matchup of champion Monomoy Girl (Tapizar) and potential Horse of the Year Swiss Skydiver (Daredevil) dominates the intrigue of a 10-horse GI Longines Distaff, and Europe appears to have the GI Longines Turf cornered with a powerful six-horse contingent headed by seven-time Group 1 winner and 2018 Turf runner-up Magical (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}).

The curtain will close with one of the deepest Classic fields in recent memory. Bob Baffert sends out the formidable trio of Improbable (City Zip), thrice a Grade I winner this year, GI Kentucky Derby hero and narrow GI Preakness S. runner-up Authentic (Into Mischief) and controversial champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day). Dazzling GI Runhappy Travers S. and GI Belmont S. conqueror Tiz the Law (Constitution) will try to salt away both the 3-year-old championship and a Horse of the Year crown, and Grade I-winning millionaire Tom’s d’Etat (Blame) rounds out the top contenders.

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Versatility ‘Never Hurts’: United Could Be The Early Leader Or Could Stalk Pace In The Turf

United will be back this weekend to contest his second Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Turf, and his connections will no doubt be hoping he can turn around last year's painfully-close second-place finish behind Bricks and Mortar.

This year, trainer Richard Mandella said he'll be coming in with a new weapon: a running style discovered in his win in the G2 John Henry Turf Championship last time out.

“We decided to just jump him out, put him on the lead, and stay out of trouble,” said Mandella. “He'd been in trouble the race before and it may have cost him winning. We thought we'd let him jump out there and he really liked it. It gives us the feeling that we have options now to do whatever feels best.”

Previously, United had been prone to stalk an early leader going at a slow or moderate pace, and wait farther back off a hot pace. It's possible the newfound versatility could give him an edge over the many European invaders in the race, including formidable foes in Magical (IRE) and Mehdaayih (GB), but Mandella wasn't tipping his hand when it came to race strategy on Thursday.

“It never hurts to have the versatility option to go either way,” Mandella said. “But it's too early — I haven't seen enough of the field yet to handicap and figure out what our best strategy is. I'll pretty much leave that up to Flavien Prat, a great jockey.”

United has been first or second in all his starts going back to the 2019 John Henry, and Mandella said he feels good about the gelding coming into the weekend. He does anticipate a challenger in Channel Maker, the Bill Mott trainee who won this year's Sword Dancer by an impressive 5 3/4 lengths, but he doesn't focus too much on other horses, preferring to keep eyes on his own work.

Since he's a gelding, Mandella said it's likely United will be back for a 6-year-old campaign. He'd tried to take the horse to this year's G1 Dubai Sheema Classic, but evolving travel lockdowns due to COVID-19 meant he brought the horse to Dubai, schooled him in the paddock, and promptly learned they had to head home. It might be nice to try again, Mandella said in a press conference Thursday, depending upon what international travel protocols are by March 2021.

“I fully intend to keep him around as long as he's healthy and happy,” said Mandella.

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