Senor Buscador Gears Up for Dirt Mile

Joe Peacock, Jr.'s Senor Buscador (Mineshaft), who earned a berth in the field for next Saturday's GI BigAss Fans Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile via his mild upset in the GIII Ack Ack S. at Churchill Downs Oct. 1, tuned up for that engagement with a 'solid' five-furlong work in the company of his GII Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance-bound stable companion Sheriff Brown (Curlin) beneath jockey Francisco Arrieta at Keeneland Thursday morning.

“We got what we wanted,” trainer Todd Fincher said. “Senor Buscador started about six lengths back and got to the target a little faster and caught up by the three-eighths. He waited a bit not wanting to go by too fast and really started working at the quarter pole.”

Fincher surmised that Senor Buscador, who finished three lengths clear of his company, covered his final three furlongs from the eighth pole to the three-quarter pole in :34 and change.

“Sheriff Brown is better with a target, but he was the hunted today,” said Fincher, whose GI Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint contestant Slammed (Marking) is set to breeze Friday morning.

Also on the Thursday morning tab was Hot Peppers (Khozan), who went five furlongs on her own in 1:02.20 in :12.60, :24.80, :38 and out three-quarters in 1:16. Family Way (Uncle Mo), pre-entered for the GI Maker's Mark Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, went five-eighths in 1:00.80, the fastest of seven at the distance Thursday morning.

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Third Time’s The Charm For Runhappy’s Half-Sister, Rarify

6th-Keeneland, $99,588, Msw, 10-27, 2yo, f, 5 1/2f, 1:05.38, ft, 3 3/4 lengths.
RARIFY (f, 2, Justify–Bella Jolie, by Broken Vow) opened her account with a pair of seconds at Saratoga earlier this summer, trying both 6 and 6 1/2 furlongs. The half-sister to Runhappy (Super Saver), Ch. Sprinter, MGISW, $1,496,250, Thursday's 2-5 chalk, raced with blinkers for the first time over her shortest distance yet and settled into a stalking position early while racing in the three path into the far turn. Fanned out wider still, Rarify loomed outside of the leaders at the top of the lane, struck the front with a furlong to run, and drew away convincingly despite hanging on her left lead to win by 3 3/4 lengths. Malibu Toast (Tapwrit) checked in second. A $750,000 yearling and the 21st winner for her freshman sire (by Scat Daddy), Rarify's only younger sibling is a yearling half-brother by Speightstown. Her dam visited Charlatan for the 2023 season. Sales History: $750,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 3-1-2-0, $101,675. Click for the Equibase.com chart or VIDEO, sponsored by TVG.
O-Jonathan Poulin, Westerberg, Mrs. John Magnier, Derrick Smith & Michael B. Tabor; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Wesley A. Ward.

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The Sale of the Flightline Share: ‘It Will Be Like Buying a Picasso’

What will the share of Flightline, to be sold Nov. 7 at the Keeneland November sale, go for and what are the factors that will set that price? The TDN reached out to two experts to get their opinions.

Paul Manganaro is a horse owner who frequently buys stallion seasons and shares. He owns shares in 20 horses. His uncle, Anthony Manganaro, is among the owners of Flightline.

TDN: In general, what are the criteria involved when people try to evaluate what a stallion share is worth?

PM: Depending on the farm, people use different math and different equations. But, basically, the simple formula is when you take your stud fee with a first-year stallion you want to get your money out in his first four years. That's very difficult to do, especially with a quality prospect like a Flightline. As is the case with real estate, the good stuff, the top-of-market stuff, you're going to have to pay a premium. There's another formula farms use. Say they figure a stallion will produce 400 live foals in first four years, so whatever that stud fee is times the 400 foals, that's the value of the horse.

TDN: When you buy stallion shares, what are the factors you take into account?

PM: There are several major criteria you have to look at, starting with a horse's pedigree and race record. Then there's his conformation. People want to look at these horses and see how they match up. If they are a good-looking horse you will get more interest than if they are a not a well-conformed horse. Then they look at the syndicate structure. How many shares are there, 40 or 50? You'll get a bigger cut if there are only 40 shares compared to 50 shares. What's very important to most farms and to myself and others is: who are your partners? Are they strong breeders and can they support the horse with good mares? Who is the syndicate manager going to be? Lane's End is a well-established farm, a stallion-making farm. They have a strong clientele, a good advertising program and they price their horses right. So you know he's going to get the best opportunity. He ticks every single box. And like with any other business, it's about supply and demand. If there are five shares available and 200 people want one, then t thenhat drives up the price.

TDN: So, how much do you think the share will sell for?

PM: This such a unique situation. Usually when you go to buy a share a farm will call you up and say we have 40 shares at $300,000 each and do you want one? You evaluate all the criteria and you say yes or no. This is something I've never seen. They are offering one share to the whole wide world and through a bidding process. The market will dictate the price. If he dominates in the Breeders' Cup like he dominated in all his other races it could bring anything. It will be like buying a Picasso. Why is a Picasso worth $80 million or 100 million? It's just paint and oil on canvas. Why would anybody pay $100 million for that? It's because Picasso is famous and if you want one there is a limited supply. If the Flightline share brings $3 million does that mean the horse is worth $3 million times 40? No. Because you're not selling 40 of them, you're selling one. The market will dictate the value. But there will be a premium because we haven't seen a prospect like this in decades. The two horses recently sent to stud that had his charisma are American Pharoah and Justify, but they went to a farm that doesn't syndicate horses to the general public. They are held in house. So this is the rarest of rarest gems.

It's like with anything else. You want to buy a yearling and think the horse is worth $250,000 then two people want the horse and it goes for $600,000. Then that's what the horse is worth, $600,000.  If I think a horse is worth $200,000 and it sells for $500,000 I'm not saying the buyer is stupid. The number becomes $500,000 because that's what someone was willing to pay for it. People see things through different sets of glasses. It's the same with this. Whatever this sells for, that is what it is worth.

TDN: What if he loses the GI Breeders' Cup Classic? How will that affect the price?

PM: There will be an initial shock. But within 48 hours people will remember how special he was. Even the great Zenyatta lost a race. Muhammad Ali lost fights. The Dodgers got knocked out and everyone expected them to win the World Series. It's a horse race and he will be facing the best in the world. I don't think a loss would tarnish his reputation. He has five wins, all of them in tremendous fashion. People will still remember him as one of the most talented horses we've seen in the last 20 years. I don't think it will have any effect because he'll be moving on to a different career.

Fred W. Hertrich III is an owner, breeder and former chairman of the Breeders' Cup. He owns shares in numerous stallions.

TDN: Let's get right to it. What do you think the share in Flightline will sell for?

FH: It's going to bring more money than most people anticipate because of the thrill, the dream, the opportunity. That's what we sell every day in this business. We are all dreamers and this is the ultimate dream. The thrill of the horse and the dream. I am excited about it because it is such a positive thing and is so unique. Most often, with stallion syndications there is language in the agreement in which you must agree to not sell shares or seasons at public auction. They don't want to create a false market, good or bad. That's why this is an opportunity we have not seen before.

No one knows what it is worth until the last person bids, and if they do, they are Houdini . This going to give someone the opportunity to participate with one of the greatest horses we've seen in the last 10 years. If he runs next year, they'll be on the front line as an owner watching him race and there's a chance he could race around the world. How do you put a price on that thrill? It's kind of like when Elon Musk said who wants to bid on a seat to go to the moon? What is it worth? It's worth whatever someone is willing to pay for the thrill of being able to do that. The shareholders in the horse have put this opportunity out to the public and somebody is going to buy in and have the thrill of a lifetime. People have asked me what do you think this will bring. No one can predict that.

TDN: Could there be the type of bidding war that send this into the stratosphere?

FH: Absolutely. Maybe there's a wife out there who wants to give this to her husband for their 50th anniversary and can spend whatever she wants to spend to give her husband this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and she's not going to stop until she gets the horse. What would that do to the price?

It's like when I sell a horse. I might think the horse will bring $200,000 and lo and behold nobody bids over $50,000. Then with the next one I think it will also sell for $200,000 and there are two people who really want it and it sells for $700,000. That's because both people really wanted the horse and they bid against one another.

TDN: Have you ever seen anything like this before?

FH: No, there's never been anything like this before. That's why it is so unique. Kudos to the people involved who are doing this. Kudos for them coming up with and how they are promoting it. They are selling the ultimate dream.

Editor's Note: Coolmore purchased Justify for a reported $75 million. Theoretically that would value his shares (even though he was never syndicated) at $1.875 million.

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Appleby Aiming To Outstrip Last Year’s Breeders’ Cup Hat-Trick

NEWMARKET, UK–The Breeders' Cup has special resonance for Charlie Appleby, who trained his first Grade I winner at the championships not four months into his tenure as trainer for Godolphin back in 2013.

That important first milestone was provided by Darley homebred Outstrip (GB) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}) in the Juvenile Turf, and if the American race fans didn't pay much attention to Appleby that day, they do now, for it was a win which set the tone for the years to follow, not just at the Breeders' Cup, but in top-level races in North America generally. Rarely does an Appleby runner under-perform when sent stateside, and more often than not they will return with another trophy to add to the overflowing sideboards in the trainer's office at Moulton Paddocks in Newmarket. 

Behind his desk, neatly spaced, are three matching trophies from Del Mar last year, when Appleby and his newly-crowned champion jockey for 2022, William Buick, took Del Mar by storm. As important as those victories were for the racing stable, the icing on the cake for Sheikh Mohammed's vast breeding operation was the fact that Yibir (GB), Space Blues (Ire) and Modern Games (Ire) are all homebred sons of Darley's flagship stallion, Dubawi (Ire).

“It was a big win,” says Appleby casting his mind back to Outstrip while catching up with some Australian racing on TV before heading out to oversee his first lot. “And it was one of those very surreal moments. To stand at Santa Anita with that backdrop and watching your first Grade 1 winner go by the line…”

He tails off, momentarily reliving a significant moment in his own career, which has gone from strength to strength in subsequent seasons to see him crowned champion trainer in Britain last year for the first time. It is a title he is odds-on to retain as 2022 draws to a close.

“Look, I'd been in the operation for a long time before that, so you always know what these moments mean, but when you're holding that trophy, and my name was next to it, that does really give you an amazing feeling, and a feeling that you want more,” he adds.

“So the Breeders' Cup always been a meeting that we've campaigned. I'm not saying we've campaigned hard, but I feel that we've always tried to find the right horses to be the most competitive anyway. And thankfully, it's so far been a lucky hunting ground.”

In 2017 came the turn of Wuheida (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the Filly & Mare Turf, while Line Of Duty (Ire) (Galileo {Ire}) gave Appleby his second strike in the Juvenile Turf the following year. That race has now gone the trainer's way three times, though last year's success was not without drama. One of his two intended starters in the race, Albahr (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}), became fractious in the stalls, forcing him and his stablemate Modern Games to be removed from the gates. In a tumultuous few moments ahead of the start, it initially appeared as if both horses had been scratched from the race, but eventually Modern Games and Buick were reinstated and went on to win, with chaos ensuing for punters. 

“Last year was an amazing year. I felt that we added plenty of drama to the meeting as well,” says Appleby with no little understatement.

“Walking away with three homebred winners and all three of them by Dubawi, I did say to the team there, as much as we say 'well, that was great', we must try harder next year to better that. That might take a little bit of surpassing though, because it was a huge achievement by everybody and we were very proud to walk off the racetrack with what we'd achieved.”

Indeed, it will be hard to top those results at Keeneland this year, but the Appleby team—and the trainer consistently refers to the stable's success as 'we' rather than 'I'—certainly plans to give it a good old rattle.

The one thing I'm confident of with Naval Crown is that he's got gate speed in abundance

The seven runners bound for Kentucky all came through their last piece of fast work on Wednesday in good heart, and will continue with routine canters until shipping on Saturday. With Space Blues now at Kildangan Stud in Ireland and Yibir not travelling, it falls to Modern Games to lead the raiders as he bids to add the Breeders' Cup Mile to his victory last year. In the interim, he became Appleby's third Guineas winner of 2022 when landing the Poule d'Essai des Poulains, following the victory of the late Coreoebus (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) in the 2000 Guineas and Native Trail (GB) (Oasis Dream {GB}) in the Irish 2,000 Guineas. Modern Games has already made another trip back across the Atlantic this year to win the GI Woodbine Mile. 

“When unfortunately Coroebus didn't turn up for the Sussex Stakes, it was felt that Modern Games was the substitute. But he posted one of the closest finishes to Baaeed when finishing second in the Sussex. He then went to Canada and won very well there,” says Appleby. 

“Then with the QEII on Champions Day, as the rain came down again on the day, I thought 'should we really be running this horse?'. But he was in great order, and as always, he went out on his shield, finishing second in ground that William said he hated from start to finish. 

“It won't be too soft at Keeneland. I imagine Kinross will start favourite, but he's up there and in great order.”

The statuesque Rebel's Romance (Ire) (Dubawi {Ire}) is one of two Godolphin runners, along with Nations Pride (Ire) (Teofilo {Ire}), being aimed at the Breeders' Cup Turf, claimed last year by Yibir. The four-year-old has had quite the season, with four straight wins culminating in back-to-back Group 1s in Germany over 1m4f.

Appleby says of Rebel's Romance, “He's a past UAE Derby winner and he went out to America on the back end of that winter in Dubai to potentially participate in the Kentucky Derby, but he met with setbacks out there so that didn't materialise. We went back out to Dubai to try and continue his dirt career, which again didn't materialise last winter, but he's been a revelation since we switched him to the turf.

“He stays well, he's got the experience, he's well travelled. I think he's a big player on the night. He'll be joined by Nation's Pride, who's a three-year-old coming into it with a similar profile to Yibir. Obviously they both won the Jockey Club Derby Invitational en route to the Breeders' Cup. But prior to that, Nation's Pride does bring a bit more American experience to the table as well.”

That experience  was provided by the son of Teofilo heading straight from his eighth-place finish at Epsom in the Derby to take second in the GI Belmont Derby before winning the GI Saratoga Derby.

Appleby adds, “Nations Pride will probably go off favourite on the day. William [Buick] will ride him and James [Doyle] will ride Rebel's Romance; they're two live players.”

If he gets a good draw, [Silver Knott] is probably the horse they've all got to beat realistically

The trainer is also double-handed in the Turf Sprint with the Dubawi duo of Naval Crown (GB) and Creative Force (Ire), who finished first and second, a neck separating them, in the G1 Platinum Jubilee S. at Royal Ascot.

“They are both rock solid little horses,” states Appleby. “Creative Force had a break after the summer and we were delighted with his reappearance run on Champions Day, finishing third. He's definitely come forward for that run.

“Naval Crown has got quicker, dare I say it, as the season's gone on. But it hasn't quite gone right for him since the Platinum Jubilee. He ran a good race in the July Cup [when second to Alcohol Free] but was disappointing on very quick ground [at Haydock] and then obviously disappointed on the soft ground on Champions Day. “But the one thing I'm confident of with Naval Crown is that he's got gate speed in abundance. That's what's needed over there, so that's a tick for him. He's got experience and I think he'll enjoy being back on a turning track.”

Appleby also takes aim once more at the Juvenile Turf, this time with the smart Silver Knott (GB) (Lope De Vega {Ire}), who already has a pair of Group 3 wins to his credit, and whose yearling half-brother by Dubawi was recently recruited to the Godolphin team for next year to the tune of 1,500,000gns at Tattersalls. 

“His form has worked out quite well and, dare I say it, he has a profile similar to Outstrip,” notes the trainer. “He's competed at a nice level and a sounder surface will suit him, so hopefully we will get that. If he gets a good draw, he's probably the horse they've all got to beat realistically.”

Completing the septet is the G3 Sirenia S. winner Mischief Magic (Ire) (Exceed And Excel {Aus}), who was subsequently fourth to Blackbeard (Ire) in the G1 Middle Park S. and will line up in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. 

“He's got plenty of natural pace and he's definitely a player,” Appleby adds.

“As we all know, you've got to have a lot of luck around there. You've got to travel well, you've got to acclimatise well. And in the shorter-distance events, you have to have a draw. So there's still a few more hurdles to get over, but it's an exciting team to be taking out there.”

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