Katie Davis | Horse Racing Free Tips

NYRA Looks Out for Its Customer; Good for Them

The Week in Review by Bill Finley

It's not often in this sport that John Q. Horseplayer gets a break, but that's exactly what happened last week when it was revealed that NYRA was no longer accepting bets from the so-called computer-assisted wagering (CAW) players on its Empire Six wager. The Empire Six wager joined the Cross Country Pick 5 and the late Pick 5 as NYRA wagers that are no longer available to the CAW players.

The computer players use algorithms that predict the probability of a particular outcome. If their programs tell them that a horse has a 50-50 chance of winning and is 3-1 they will bet accordingly. They use the same methods for most pools and bet huge amounts of money. Because they receive rebates in the neighborhood of 10%, they don't even have to show a profit on their bets, just as long as their rebates are bigger than their losses.

The number of bettors out there using these methods is minimal, no more than six or seven groups. But they bet so much money that they can severely tilt the pools and drive down prices by significant numbers. The Thoroughbred Idea Foundation estimates that CAW play accounts for as much as 35% of all monies wagered on U.S. racing. That would mean their annual handle is about $3.5 billion.

Not that they are doing anything wrong or breaking any rules. These are very smart and innovative people who are willing to risk huge sums of money and have designed computer programs that put them several steps ahead of the average player. A case can be made that they deserve every last nickel they have made betting on racing, not just in the U.S. but around the globe.

CAW players are, for obvious reasons, coveted by most American tracks. Tracks make money off of their percentage of the betting handle. Taking a micro view of how the business of racing works, why would any track turn away customers that might be betting tens of millions of dollars every year on their product?

If only it were that simple.

This is pari-mutuel wagering, gambling's version of survival of the fittest. The successful bettors are taking advantage of the unsuccessful ones. It's their money that they are winning, not the house's money. With the CAW phenomenon, which appears to be growing all the time, betting on the horses has turned into a matter of the whales vs. minnows. The whales have been gobbling up the minnows and after a while all the minnows will be gone.

It's already happening. The CAW players are pumping billions into the pools across the country, which is a fairly recent phenomenon, yet handle has been stagnant over recent years when it comes to real numbers and has declined sharply when adjusting for inflation. That can only mean that a lot of those who might bet $20 on a race, $200 on a card and play the races once or twice a week have been driven out of the game. Horseplayers only have so much money to spend on the sport and once you tap them out they are going to move on.

The regular players are getting particularly hurt in the jackpot wagers. The pools build up on their losing dollars and are too often scooped up by the CAW players, sometimes on a mandatory payout date.

NYRA took a look at this and, obviously, had some concerns.

“We are trying to level the playing field with these particular multi-race wagers so it's not tilted towards those folks with distinct advantages, meaning complicated algorithmic trading tools and an extremely high volume,” NYRA spokesman Pat McKenna told Steve Byk on his “At the Races” radio show.

McKenna noted that NYRA can operate differently from other tracks because it is a not-for-profit and doesn't always have to adhere to the bottom line. It would be far more difficult for a Churchill Downs track or a Stronach Group track to turn away the CAW money. But even NYRA hasn't gone so far as to ban the CAW players all together. They are still welcome in all other pools and they are the reason why so many horses go into the gate at 4-1 and drop to 8-5 during the running of the race, which is a terrible look for the sport. CAW wagers go directly into the pools and can be played at the very last second.

The status quo is not sustainable. Every day that this persists, another casual horseplayer gives up on the game. Racing cannot do without these everyday players. After a while, you're going to have nothing left but whales vs. whales.

But good luck trying to get a for-profit track to turn away bettors willing to wager millions on their product. Probably the best anyone can hope for would be for NYRA to extend the exclusion into other pools and for other non-profit tracks like Del Mar and Keeneland to also experiment by barring CAW players from some pools.

This is a serious problem for the sport and it's not going away. At least NYRA is trying to make a bad situation better.

Dream Shake Impresses

There were expectations that a star would emerge from Sunday's fifth race at Santa Anita, a maiden special weight going 6 1/2 furlongs. It happened, but just not with the horse everyone was expecting to win.

Sent off at 20-1, 'TDN Rising Star' Dream Shake (Twirling Candy) turned in what might have been the most impressive 3-year-old debut so far this year. Trained by Peter Eurton and ridden by Joel Rosario, he kicked into high gear in the stretch and won going away, by 4 3/4 lengths.

Eurton admitted that he never envisioned such a performance.

“He went way beyond my expectations,” he said. “I had never really challenged him whatsoever. He was an unknown. For him to have closed and ran fourth with a nice finish and a nice gallop-out would have been satisfying, especially against the field of horse we were facing. There were a lot of horses in there that people thought highly of.”

All indications are that the horse will be even better when stretching out.

“He acts like, to me, a two-turn horse,” Eurton said. “He's not ultra quick but neither is he slow. Once he gets going, he covers quite a bit of ground. Going two turns is, hopefully, in the cards for his next race.”

Eurton said he has not picked out the next start for Dream Shake but said a stakes race is a possibility.

The same race included a rare bad showing from the Bob Baffert barn. He entered two highly regarded first time starters in Bezos (Empire Maker), the 3-5 favorite, and Tivoli Twirl (Twirling Candy) only to have them both get beaten by 15-plus lengths. That was bad news for the people who foolishly bet on Bezos in the Derby Future wager before he had even had a start, sending him off at 26-1. The Baffert horses deserve a second shot, but it seems highly unlikely now that either one will make the GI Kentucky Derby.

The Katie Davis Saga

Earlier this week, we wrote about Katie Davis's unhappiness over the New York Gaming Commission's coupled entries rule.

The real point of the story is that she is being penalized by what is quite possibly the silliest, most out-of-touch rule on the books over at the Gaming Commission. There's no valid reason why her mounts must run as an entry with husband Trevor McCarthy's mounts when the two are in the same race. Protecting the betting public is one thing, but it's completely unnecessary in this situation.

This is hurting Davis. It is hurting McCarthy. And it's cutting into NYRA's handle. It's well past the point where the Gaming Commission should have revisited the rule and taken it off the books.

The post NYRA Looks Out for Its Customer; Good for Them appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Katie Davis Says NYRA Racing Office Discouraging Trainers From Riding Her

Jockey Katie Davis has alleged that the NYRA racing office has been telling trainers not to ride her because of a New York State Gaming Commission rule that requires that horses running in the same race ridden by a husband and a wife must be coupled. Davis recently married Trevor McCarthy and both are riding at Aqueduct this winter.

Because of the rule, any time McCarthy and Davis compete in the same race there is one less betting interest than normal because of the Gaming Commission rule. The TDN estimates that, on average, each time the coupling rule goes into effect, NYRA loses about $90,000 in handle because of the loss of a betting interest.

“Maybe two weeks after I started here, trainers were starting to tell me they wanted to name me on a horse,” she said. “They'd say, 'It's not me, it's the racing office.' They've been telling trainers if they name me on a horse the race won't go. You've got the racing office convincing trainers that if they really want a race to go they had better name someone else.”

Davis said she has heard the same story from several trainers.

“I've heard this from a lot of the trainers, pretty much everybody I ride for,” she said.

“I understand there is a horse shortage and the racing office is doing its best to put together a card, but they shouldn't do it at the expense of someone's career. That isn't right,” said Davis' agent, Mike Monroe.

Through spokesperson Pat McKenna, NYRA denied Davis's allegations.

“These accusations are completely false and without merit,” McKenna said. “In fact, NYRA has consistently advocated for modernized rules regarding coupled entries in New York state and we will continue to do so for the benefit of New York racing as a whole.”

Davis and McCarthy, who were married in mid-December, came to New York after riding in Maryland and were unaware of the Gaming Commission rule. Starting Jan. 1, the Gaming Commission began to enforce the rule regarding married riders. Through Feb. 5, McCarthy has had 12 winners at the meet from 122 mounts. Davis has gone just one for 43. She picked up her first winner Friday, one race after crossing the wire first only to get taken down by the stewards for interference. Their ruling came after her brother, Dylan Davis, claimed foul against her. Horses ridden by siblings, like brothers Irad and Jose Ortiz, do not have to be coupled.

Davis said she has no intention of returning to Maryland.

“Trevor and I have decided to stick together and not let these people walk all over us,” she said. “It's not fair. I'm just trying to make a living and there's no reason for me to stop riding here.”

Davis has hired an attorney, who has asked the Gaming Commission to issue an emergency rule rescinding the current rule covering married riders.

In a letter sent to Robert Williams, the executive director of the New York State Gaming Commission, lawyer William Gotimer Jr. wrote: “This rule has added to the many difficulties female riders face in pursuit of their careers and should be rectified. Due to application of this anachronistic rule Ms. Davis must make a choice between entering into the Constitutionally protected state of matrimony and furthering her career. This is not something that should be mandated by a government agency.”

The post Katie Davis Says NYRA Racing Office Discouraging Trainers From Riding Her appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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The Week in Review: Mutuels Entry Rule for Married Jockeys Gets Costly and Confusing in New York

First thing Monday morning, common sense should be enough to get the New York State Gaming Commission (NYSGC) to quickly re-examine a rule that has been on the books for decades, but just surfaced with controversy over the weekend, one race into the 2021 Aqueduct meet.

But in case reason isn’t enough to spark regulators into action, here’s an alarming lost-revenue estimate that might get their attention: Every time the mounts of recently married riders Trevor McCarthy and Katie Davis are mandated to be coupled in the wagering–as required by a regulation ostensibly designed to protect the sport from spousal collusion–the handle has the potential to plummet by $90,000 per race.

Considering the newlyweds rode against each other in six decreased-field races at Aqueduct over the first three days of the meet Jan. 1-3, the running total of theoretically vanished handle now stands at $540,000–with that number ticking upward every time entries are drawn with a 1 and 1A appearing where there realistically should be two distinct betting interests.

Those estimates are based on Aqueduct’s handle-per-interest figure of $90,509 from January 2020, when field size averaged 7.1 starters per race (the source is this national handle chart published last year by Horse Racing Nation).

Although it’s impossible to project the precise amount of handle that evaporates when you lose a betting interest by forcing two independently owned and trained horses into a single mutuel coupling, the comparable per-interest January 2020 figure for Aqueduct (third-highest in the nation for that period) offers a reasonable approximation. Even if the rounded $90,000 per-interest estimate is off by a bit, the potential cumulative handle loss has already spiraled well into six figures–in addition to igniting plenty of confusion.

At a time when tracks nationwide are competing fiercely to maintain attractive field sizes, New York’s antiquated rule is creating a competitive disadvantage for Aqueduct.

It also has the potential to damage the mount-booking business for both McCarthy and Davis, who are trying to re-establish themselves on the New York circuit.

And then there’s the blowback of bad press and undesirable negative attention on social media. People opposed to the rule far outnumber those speaking up in favor of it, and the regulation is being described as sexist, misogynistic, and generally not grounded in reality.

Dave Grening of DRF.com first broke the story last week about McCarthy and Davis getting hitched in mid-December, and how their post-honeymoon plans called for both of them to relocate from Maryland to ride together in New York this winter.

McCarthy, the son of retired mid-Atlantic jockey Michael McCarthy, rode at Aqueduct during the 2018 winter meet. Davis, the daughter of retired New York jockey Robbie Davis, is one of three siblings currently active as jockeys.

They both rode in separate Aqueduct races Dec. 31, but when the Jan. 1 entries were drawn, the couple had mounts in two common races. That necessitated a 1 and 1A coupling, as per state rule 4025.10 (f), which states, “All horses trained or ridden by a spouse, parent, issue or member of a jockey’s household shall be coupled in the betting with any horse ridden by such jockey.”

Since the outset of pari-mutuel wagering in America nearly 100 years ago, it has been customary to–in theory, at least–protect betting integrity by treating two horses that have some sort of commonality (same owner or trainer, or involvement of family relatives) as one betting entity. The idea is that if there is some attempt by the related parties to manipulate the outcome of the race, the “two for one” betting model is supposed to disincentivize them from profiting by arranging for the longer-priced horse to win the race.

But over the decades, and especially in the past few years, racing jurisdictions have largely relaxed or eliminated entry coupling rules because A) They don’t seem as necessary or effective as they were once thought to be; and B) The sport needs every betting interest it can get to bolster handle, the chief driver of which is field size.

New York’s rule does not prohibit siblings from competing while uncoupled in the same race–unless they live in the same household. That’s why the Ortiz brothers–Jose and Irad, Jr.–can compete against each other without forcing a betting entry, and it’s the same reason why the Davis siblings–Jacqueline, Dylan, and Katie–have all ridden together in the same race without triggering a three-way coupling.

Every state is different in its mutuel coupling rules. And if you are familiar with any given racetrack, you can probably glance at an overnight and know who is dating (or cohabitating) with whom, or take a good guess at which longtime allies might be inclined to collude, even if they are not at all related. Because no rule could possibly police against the myriad ways participants could try to conspire to fix a race, why is New York picking on married couples while drastically eroding a racetrack’s potential to generate handle?

It’s mind-boggling to think that most states have rules in place that create clear paths for convicted felons to regain their racing licenses, and many jurisdictions have welcomed back jockeys who have been caught illegally shocking horses with electrical devices.

Yet if two upstanding jockeys with not even a hint of a history of race fixing say “I do,” New York in 2021 still regards the couple with pari-mutuel suspicion in the form of a scarlet-letter 1A winking accusingly on the tote board.

McCarthy and Davis are hardly the first married couple to face resistance to competing on even terms in the same race. In 1995, the Illinois Racing Board (IRB) repealed its regulation that prohibited married couples from riding against each other when that rule kept jockey John Hundley and his wife, apprentice Lisa Nuell, from competing together at Fairmount Park.

“This is the 1990s, not the 1880s. I don’t believe we should be trying to keep women barefoot and pregnant,” then-IRB commissioner Richard Balog said at the time, adding that the rule was “sexist and works against women.”

Married jockeys Amy Duross and Harry Vega were similarly prohibited from competing against each other by the Suffolk Downs stewards in 1998 until the Massachusetts Racing Commission overturned that decision. Around the same time, married jockeys Michelle Luttrell and Freddie Castillo moved their tacks to Suffolk, where that precedent allowed them to also compete without restrictions.

More recently, Kassie Guglielmino and Jake Samuels, married in 2017, have battled near the top of the standings at various tracks in the Pacific northwest and in Arizona.

McCarthy and Davis have expressed frustration at New York’s out-of-step rule, but they have taken the high road in pointing out its shortcomings. Over the weekend, Davis thanked supporters on Twitter, while McCarthy wrote that the couple will respect and follow the rule. “I will continue to do my best as will my wife and keep moving forward no matter what obstacles are thrown at us,” he added.

But by the end of Sunday, New York’s coupled spouses rule had devolved into yet another sub-level of absurdity.

Davis was named at entry time to ride in the ninth race. McCarthy was not, but midway through the afternoon he picked up a vacated mount in that race. Because those two mounts ridden by the spouses had not been coupled at the time of entry, McCarthy’s horse–and just McCarthy’s horse–was forced to run for purse money only.

“It’s too confusing for me to even explain,” Aqueduct broadcast handicapper Andy Serling said pre-race when alerting the public to the reason why McCarthy’s mount was showing as scratched on the tote board. “I’m not that smart.”

Even though the mounts ridden by Davis and McCarthy finished off the board, Pick 4, 5, and 6 wagers placed before McCarthy’s horse was taken out of the betting (when it was 30-1 on the morning line) were treated as scratches that converted to valid tickets on the betting favorite–who, of course, ended up winning the race.

A rule change at most racing commissions generally first must be proposed, voted upon at a public meeting, published in the state register, pass a public commentary period of about 45 days, come up again for a final vote by commissioners, and then be certified by an office of administrative law before it goes into effect. The process often takes months, or the better part of a year in some jurisdictions.

But the NYSGC, like many commissions, has broad powers to implement emergency rule-making if it deems such changes are in the immediate best interest of the sport.

Here’s hoping that an estimated $90,000 per-race handle hit–plus the associated chaos–qualifies as an emergency, and that the NYSGC steps up and makes a swift change in its mutuel coupling of married jockeys rule.

The post The Week in Review: Mutuels Entry Rule for Married Jockeys Gets Costly and Confusing in New York appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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‘It’s Not The 1800s Anymore’: Davis Calls For Rule Coupling Married Riders To Be Dropped

Newlywed jockeys Trevor McCarthy and Katie Davis were made aware of a unique rule earlier this week stating that if a husband and wife are riding against each other in the same race, their horses have to be coupled as one betting interest, according to published reports.

McCarthy and Davis, who were married in mid-December, were both upset to find out about this little known rule. While Davis says that the trainers she rides for will not let the rule stop them from using her, the couple is worried that the rule could have a negative impact on McCarthy's business.

“Trevor is worried it might affect his business, and if it does it could come down to me choosing to make a living or not, and that's not fair,” Davis told Bloodhorse.com's Bob Ehalt. “It's not the 1800s anymore. The rule needs to be changed. We are very competitive. We don't give each other a shot. We're both trying 150% when we ride against each other.”

Davis has reached out to the Jockeys' Guild for help combatting the rule, but she has been told by sources that it could take six months for the rule to be dropped. New York Racing Association (NYRA) senior vice president of racing operations Martin Panza says that NYRA has no power to change the rule even if they do not agree with it.