The TDN Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for January 14

With the year having just begun, it will take a while for the picture for the GI Kentucky Oaks to come into focus. For now, the fillies who thrived last year dominate this Top 10 list, but that can, and likely will, change as the calendar works its way toward the first Friday in May and new names emerge in the major preps for the Oaks.

It is, at the very least, a solid group, headed by GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Vequist, who will be named the champion 2-year-old filly of 2020. For her, and several others on the list, it will all come down to whether or not they peaked at two or if they have made a successful transition from their freshmen campaigns to their 3-year-old campaigns.

Saturday’s racing will include the first 2021 Oaks prep of any kind as a field of nine will compete in the Silverbulletday S. at Fair Grounds. All eyes will be on Sun Path, a blowout winner of an allowance race in New Orleans last month. She is trained by Brad Cox, who won last year’s Oaks with Shedaresthedevil (Daredevil).

1). VEQUIST (Nyquist–Vero Amore, by Mineshaft)

With victories in the GI Spinaway S. and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies last year, she was clearly the most accomplished 2-year-old filly of 2020. There’s nothing not to like about the daughter of Nyquist, who has displayed speed, class and the ability to win around two turns and at a mile-and-a-sixteenth.

Soon to be named the champion 2-year-old filly of 2020, Vequist had her first work of 2021 Saturday when she breezed a half-mile in 49.45 at Palm Meadows.

“Right after the Breeders’ Cup we sent her to Barry Eisman’s place in Ocala for a little R & R,” trainer Butch Reid said. “She had a nice six weeks off while there and I then brought her to Palm Meadows. She had her first breeze Saturday and went a nice half-mile in 49 and change. That served to wake her up. All systems are go.”

And how has she done since her break?

“There are a couple of guys in my barn here at Palm Meadows who happened to be in our barn last summer at Saratoga and they remarked how much she had grown and how much weight she had put on since last summer,” Reid said. “Sometimes, it’s a little deceiving to your own eyes when you see them every day, but these guys hadn’t seen her in six months and they thought she looked like a different horse. They did a sensational job with her at Ocala. She’s put on weight and she’s really maturing.”

Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Feb. 27
Kentucky Oaks Points: 24

2). SUN PATH (Munnings–Touch the Star, by Tapit)

Could be the best among the “new faces” that did not run in the Breeders’ Cup. After finishing second in her debut, the ‘TDN Rising Star’ won a maiden at Churchill by three lengths and followed that up with a 12 3/4-length romp in an allowance on Dec. 18 at Fair Grounds. She is a full-sister to Bonny South, the winner of the 2020 GII Fair Grounds Oaks.

“At this stage of the game, she’s better [than Bonny South],” Cox said. “She showed more this summer than Bonny showed as a 2-year-old. She’s got a long way to go to catch up to Bonny’s accomplishments, but at this stage of the game, there’s more talent and speed there and she does things maybe a touch easier.”

Owned by Juddmonte Farms, trained by Cox and ridden by Florent Geroux, she is certainly in capable hands. Cox has won two of the last three runnings of the Kentucky Oaks.

Her one flaw may be how she gets out of the gate. She broke through the gate prior to the start of the allowance race and she also had gate problems in her two previous starts.

Will be in action this weekend, heading the Silverbulletday.

Next Start: Silverbulletday S., FG, Jan. 16
Kentucky Oaks Points: 0

3). DAYOUTOFTHEOFFICE (Into Mischief–Gottahaveadream, by Indian Charlie)

Like Vequist, Dayoutoftheoffice spent some time in Ocala relaxing after she finished second in the Juvenile Fillies and only recently returned to the Tampa Bay Downs barn of trainer Tim Hamm.

“She’s put on some weight and she seems happy,” Hamm said. “She’s doing great.”

The daughter of Into Mischief snuck up on a lot of people when she won the GIII Schuylerville S. at Saratoga by six lengths as a 19-1 outsider. She followed that up with a two-length win in the GI Frizette S. and was the third choice in the Juvenile Fillies at 4-1. She ran well that day to finish second, but it was a performance that raises some questions. In her first try around two turns, she led in the stretch before Vequist ran by her for the win. Could she have distance limitations? That’s a question that will likely be answered early on in 2021.

Hamm said she will make her 3-year-old debut in either the Davona Dale or the GIII Honeybee S. on March 6 at Oaklawn.

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 18

4). TRAVEL COLUMN (Frosted–Swingit, by Victory Gallop)

Another Brad Cox runner and ‘TDN Rising Star’ who prospered later on in the year and now has designs on the Kentucky Oaks. A $850,000 purchase at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling sale, she didn’t run particularly well when a distant third in the GI Darley Alcibiades S., but was a much different horse when recording an impressive win in the GII Golden Rod S. at Churchill Downs. She wound up last behind moderate fractions after being knocked around at the start and had to alter course in the stretch to find running room. Still, she prevailed by a length. Daughter of Frosted looks like she can improve and should be a major player on the road to the Oaks.

Next Start: GII Rachel Alexandra S. presented by Fasig-Tipton, FG, Feb. 13
Kentucky Oaks Points: 12

5). MALATHAAT (Curlin–Dreaming of Julia, by A.P. Indy)

There appears to be a lot of upside to this filly who went for seven figures at the yearling sales and now runs for Shadwell Stable. The ‘TDN Rising Star’ is three for three and already has a win at a mile-and-an-eighth, in the GII Demoiselle S. at Aqueduct. That she is by Curlin suggest that the best is yet to come.

In some respects, the Demoiselle was not her most impressive performance. Sent off at 2-5, she looked beaten in mid-stretch but had enough class to grind out a win by three-quarters of a length in a race run over a sloppy track.

“She was never comfortable and not running into a spot I wanted,” jockey John Velazquez said afterward. “She never really put that much effort into keeping a spot. Finally, when I tipped her out heading to the quarter-pole, she started running.”

While this could be the year that Malathaat blossoms, she will need to run faster. Her best Beyer number so far is the 83 she got when winning the Tempted S. She got a 76 in the Demoiselle.

Next Start: GII Davona Dale S., GP, Feb. 27
Kentucky Oaks Points: 10

6). GIRL DADDY (Uncle Mo–Cara Marie, by Unbridled’s Song)

Daughter of Uncle Mo was a creditable third in the Juvenile Fillies, losing the place position by a nose, in what was her first career defeat. She earned a 90 Beyer figure that day, the best of her brief career. She had been impressive in her two earlier starts, a maiden win at Ellis Park and a two-length victory in the GIII Pocahontas at Churchill Downs. There are no serious knocks on the ‘TDN Rising Star’, but she may have to improve to be able to beat the likes of Vequist and some others. Will try to give trainer Dale Romans his first Oaks win.

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

7). SIMPLY RAVISHING (Laoban–Four Wishes, by More Than Ready)

Hard to get a read on this filly. Trainer Ken McPeek, so adept at finding quality horses at the sales for modest prices, plucked this one out of the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky October Yearling sale for $50,000. She won her first three races, including the GI Alcibiades, and it looked like she might be on her way to championship honors. Instead, she finished fourth in the Breeders’ Cup and followed that up with a fourth-place finish in the Golden Rod as the 7-10 favorite. At the very least, she will need to return to the form she showed in the Alcibiades to be considered a top Oaks contender. Did she peak too early?

Next Start: Undecided
Kentucky Oaks Points: 13

8). KALYPSO (Brody’s Cause–Malibu Cove, by Malibu Moon)

Early indications are that the California-based 3-year-old fillies are not a particularly strong group. The Beyer numbers for most of their races have been on the slow side. For now, Kalypso looks as good as any. A $240,000 purchase at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Select Yearling Sale, she improved quite a bit to win the GII Santa Ynez S. over stablemate Frosteria (Frosted), who is still a maiden, for the Bob Baffert barn. The Santa Ynez is a seven-furlong race, so she still needs to show that she can thrive at longer distances. While this one is not worthy as of yet of cracking the top three or four, it would be a mistake to discount anything that Baffert sends out.

Next Start: GII Las Virgenes S., SA, Feb. 6
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

9). VARDA (Distorted Humor–She’ll Be Right, by Sky Mesa)

Another horse from the Baffert stable, the good news is that she is a Grade I winner, which she accomplished in the GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos. The bad news is that she hasn’t run nearly fast enough to be considered among the best in her division. Sent off at 17-1 in the five-horse Starlet, her time for the mile-and-a-sixteenth was 1:44 2/5, good for just a 68 Beyer. That puts her 25 points behind Vequist’s best. That doesn’t mean she can’t improve. But will need to post a significantly faster number before climbing to the top of this list.

Next Start: GII Las Virgenes S., SA, Feb. 6
Kentucky Oaks Points: 14

10). SOUPER SENSATIONAL (Curlin–Kateri, by Indian Charlie)

She’s never run outside of Canada and has only raced on a synthetic surface, so she is a bit of an unknown as she heads into Saturday’s Silverbulletday at Fair Grounds. A $725,000 buy at the 2019 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Yearling sale, she runs for Live Oak Plantation and trainer Mark Casse. The ‘TDN Rising Star’ looked outstanding in her two career starts, winning easily in a maiden event at Woodbine before following that up with a four-length win in the Glorious Song S. Another who is by Curlin, so there’s no reason why she won’t keep getting better.

Next Start: Silverbulletday S., FG, Jan. 16
Kentucky Oaks Points: 0

 

 

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Charlatan Likely to Saudi Cup Next

After Charlatan (Speightstown) worked a half-mile Saturday in :49.80 at Santa Anita, trainer Bob Baffert reported that his Grade I winner will likely make his next start in the Feb. 20 Saudi Cup. Charlatan is coming off a dominant win against a quality field in the Dec. 26 GI Runhappy Malibu S., his first after being sidelined following the GI Arkansas Derby May 2.

Charlatan has been invited to the GI Pegasus World Cup on Jan. 23 at Gulfstream, but will likely pass that race. Should Charlatan pass the Pegasus, the role of favorite will go to Knicks Go (Paynter), who will be ridden by Joel Rosario.

“He breezed today and it was a very, very nice work,” Baffert said of Charlatan. “We are leaning toward the Saudi Cup. I don’t want to bring him back too quick. He came out of the Malibu really well. He always showed that he was a brilliant horse.”

Continued Baffert, “When he won the Malibu he wasn’t really super keyed up for it. He ran a lot better than I thought he would. I thought he could win and I thought he would run well.”

So far as his top 3-year-old colts go, Baffert has begun plotting a course for Life is Good (Into Mischief) and Medina Spirit (Protonico), the one-two finishers in the GIII Sham S.

“Life is Good came out of his race really well,” he said. “We are looking, maybe, at the [GII] San Felipe [S. Mar. 6] for him. That could change. He will be nominated to everything, but it will either be the San Felipe or the [GII] Rebel [S. Mar. 13] for him.”

“I don’t know what we’re going to do with Medina Spirit. He will also be nominated to everything. What I usually do this time of year with horses like him that are breezing, they are all nominated everywhere and whoever breezes the best gets on a plane.”

Gamine (Into Mischief), the leading contender for the Filly & Mare Sprinter title, recently returned to the Baffert stable after spending time at Trifecta Farm and has yet to resume serious training. She won the GI Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint in her most recent start.

“We gave her a little break and it looks like she filled out a bit,” Baffert said. “I’ll probably aim her for the [GI] Derby City Distaff S. at Churchill during Derby week.”

In Varda (Distorted Humor), Kalypso (Brody’s Cause) and Frosteria (Frosted), Baffert has a trio of contenders on the road to the Apr. 30 GI Kentucky Oaks. He said Varda and Kalypso will likely go next in the GII Las Virgenes S. Feb. 6. He said he would find a maiden race for Frosteria before putting her back in stakes competition.

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Brody’s Cause Filly Kalypso Proves Best As Santa Ynez Favorite

In a performance befitting her short odds, Bob Baffert's Kalypso showed good early speed and took command turning for home en route to a facile 1 ¾-length victory in Sunday's Grade 2, $200,000 Santa Ynez Stakes at Santa Anita in Arcadia, Calif.  Ridden for the first time by Joel Rosario, Kalypso got seven furlongs in 1:23.42 and provided Baffert with his record sixth win in the Santa Ynez, an early prep for both the Grade 2 Santa Anita Oaks and the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks.

Breaking from the far outside in a field of six sophomore fillies, Kalypso – from the first crop by Spendthrift Farm stallion Brody's Cause – enjoyed an early neck advantage on longshot Brilliant Cut, who broke from the rail.  Heading up the backside, these two were head and head with Kalypso obviously well within herself.  Turning for home, Kalypso asserted her dominance and she went on to a most impressive win as much the best.

“She broke good and put me right into the race, in a good position,” said Rosario, who notched his third stakes win through five days of racing.  “I'm just happy to be on her.  She was the best horse and she'll be better going longer distances.”

Most recently a close second going a mile and one sixteenth in the G1 Starlet at Los Alamitos Dec. 5, Kalypso was off as the 4-5 favorite and paid $3.80, $2.80 and $2.20.

“She has natural speed and she's a really fast filly,” said Baffert, who scratched morning line favorite Varda earlier but still ran three fillies.  “She had the lead for a long time in the (Starlet), backing up it's a big difference to go seven eighths.  The way she broke today, she was in a good spot and she was really training well coming into this race…

“I would try her long again, as they get older, they are maturing.  You can slow her down a little bit, like today she was pretty relaxed.  She wasn't too rank where she went real fast but we'll just see how (she) comes out of it.”

Owned by David A. Bernsen, LLC, Rockingham Ranch and Chad Littlefield, Kalyspo picks up 10 qualifying points to the Kentucky Oaks on April 30 and with her first graded stakes win, is now 5-2-2-1.  With the winner's share of $120,000, she increased her earnings to $245,600.

Updated Kentucky Oaks points leaderboard

Ridden by Mike Smith, Frosteria rallied four-wide from well off the pace to outrun Brilliant Cut by 1 ½ lengths.  The second choice at 7-2, Frosteria, a Godolphin homebred also trained by Baffert, paid $3.60 and $2.80.

Off at 30-1 with Ricky Gonzalez, the Doug O'Neill-trained Brilliant Cut finished 3 ½ lengths clear of Queengol and paid $5.80 to show.

Runner-up Frosteria picked up four Kentucky Oaks qualifying points, while Brilliant Cut got two and Queengol, one.

Baffert, who won last year's Santa Ynez with Bast, entered today's proceedings tied with D. Wayne Lukas with five lifetime wins in the race, which was run for the 70th time today.

Fractions on the race were 22.53, 45.13 and 1:10.18.

Live racing returns with first post time for a nine-race card on Friday at 12:30 p.m. All of Santa Anita's races are available free of charge at santaanita.com/live and fans can watch and wager via 1st.com/Bet.

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Kalypso a Revelation in Santa Ynez

David Bernsen, Rockingham Ranch and Chad Littlefield’s Kalypso (Brody’s Cause), the 4-5 favorite, strode home an easy winner of the GII Santa Ynez S. at Santa Anita Sunday, becoming the second graded winner from the first crop of her Grade I-winning sire. Cutting back to seven furlongs following a runner-up effort behind her Santa Ynez-scratched stablemate Varda (Distorted Humor) in the 1 1/16-mile GI Starlet S. last month, the chestnut filly broke sharply and had the advantage in the early strides. But she was soon joined by Brilliant Cut (Speightstown) and those two rivals battled through fractions of :22.53 and :45.13. Kalypso took charge nearing the stretch and, once she found her best stride, powered away in the final furlong to finish 1 3/4 lengths in front under a hand ride as stablemate Frosteria (Frosted)–still a maiden–made late progress to be second for the fourth time in four lifetime starts. Brilliant Cut was third.

“She broke good and put me right into the race, in a good position,” said winning jockey Joel Rosario, who was riding Kalypso for the first time in the Santa Ynez. “I’m just happy to be on her. She was the best horse and she’ll be better going longer distances.”

Kalypso provided trainer Bob Baffert with his record sixth win in the Santa Ynez a day after he got back on the Triple Crown trail with the one-two finishers–Life is Good (Into Mischief) and Medina Spirit (Protonico)–in Saturday’s GIII Sham S.

“She has natural speed and she’s a really fast filly,” Baffert said of Kalypso, who was one of three fillies he saddled in the Santa Ynez. “She had the lead for a long time in the [Starlet], backing up, it’s a big difference to go seven-eighths. The way she broke today, she was in a good spot and she was really training well coming into this race, so it’s pretty exciting that she got a win.”

Kalypso opened her career with a third-place effort going 5 1/2 furlongs at Del Mar Aug. 15 and was second at that track and trip Sept. 5 before breaking her maiden going six furlongs in the Oct. 18 Anoakia S. She had a 2 1/2-length advantage in upper stretch before being overtaken by Varda in the 1 1/16-mile GI Starlet S. at Los Alamitos last time out Dec. 5 and was shedding the blinkers for this second graded stakes attempt.

“I would try her long again, as they get older they are maturing,” Baffert said of future plans for Kalypso. “You can slow her down a little bit, like today she was pretty relaxed. She wasn’t too rank where she went real fast, but we’ll just see how they come out of it. The other filly [Frosteria], I think I’ll just run her in a maiden race.”

Pedigree Notes:

Brody’s Cause, winner of the 2016 GI Toyota Blue Grass S., was  represented by 2020 GIII Iroquois S. winner Sittin on Go, as well as GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. runner-up Smiley Sobotka and GII Best Pal S. runner-up Girther.

Malibu Cove, a full-sister to multiple graded winner Prospective, produced a filly by Hit It a Bomb in 2019 and a colt by Mor Spirit in 2020. She was bred back to Jimmy Creed. The mare is also a full to Enhanced, who produced last year’s GIII Bashford Manor S. third-place finisher Herd Immunity (Union Rags).

Sunday, Santa Anita
SANTA YNEZ S.-GII, $200,500, Santa Anita, 1-3, 3yo, f, 7f, 1:23.42, ft.
1–KALYPSO, 122, f, 3, by Brody’s Cause
                1st Dam: Malibu Cove, by Malibu Moon
                2nd Dam: Spirited Away, by Awesome Again
                3rd Dam: Cape North, by Capote
   1ST GRADED STAKES WIN. ($240,000 Ylg ’19 FTKJUL). O-David
A Bernsen, LLC, Rockingham Ranch & Chad Littlefield;
B-Spendthrift Farm LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert; J-Joel Rosario.
$120,000. Lifetime Record: GISP, 5-2-2-1, $245,600. Werk Nick
   Rating: B. Click for eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Frosteria, 120, f, 3, Frosted–Hystericalady, by Distorted
Humor. O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Bob Baffert. $40,000.
3–Brilliant Cut, 120, f, 3, Speightstown–Polish a Diamond, by
The Factor. ($160,000 Wlg ’18 KEENOV; $160,000 Ylg ’19
KEESEP). O-ERJ Racing LLC, David Kenney, William Strauss,
Dennis and Doug O’Neill; B-McCauley Farm & Speightstown
Syndicate (KY); T-Doug F. O’Neill. $24,000.
Margins: 1 3/4, 1HF, 3HF. Odds: 0.90, 3.60, 30.90.
Also Ran: Queengol, Nasreddine, Exotic West. Scratched: Varda.
Click for the Equibase.com chart, the TJCIS.com PPs or the free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. VIDEO, sponsored by Fasig-Tipton.

 

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