Tag: Justin Mustari

With horses coming from all around the world and many of them meeting each other for the first time, the two-day Breeders' Cup World Championships is a prodigious challenge for handicappers but also offers tremendous opportunity for big payoffs and even life-changing scores. Full fields, top-class horses and a vast wagering menu make Breeders' Cup an exhausting and exhilarating handicapping and money-management exercise.

In this latest edition of Breeders' Cup Buzz, we sought out the opinions of some top handicappers to share how they approach this event, whether they are participating in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge (BCBC) live money tournament or playing the races on their own.

Amy Brantley

So the best two days of racing are upon us!  At least, they are my favorite two days of racing. I have to prepare my plan of attack not just for betting the races but competing in the Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge. It may sound strange but I take two different approaches to my handicapping when preparing for betting and competing.

First, these two days provide the best value for making a life-changing score and that is the focus for how I handicap and structure my bets. There is a tremendous amount of information (data and video) that can be accessed from multiple sources; however, I have found too much information creates chaos. Therefore, once the pre-entries post, I begin researching the past performances and replays, trainer angles, European shipper statistics and value payouts from past Breeders' Cup races. I do want to give a positive experience shoutout to STATS Race Lens. I began using this program and creating my personal angles approximately a year ago and have realized positive returns.

My main focus for BC wagering is horizontal. The pick fours, fives and sixes get my full attention. I target two or three races in which I find two key horses per race. I then build my tickets around those races. The races I identify as ones with great value I go deep. Of course, I then pray for great racing luck!

Lastly, with respect to the BCBC, I focus more vertical in my wagering structure because of the rules of the tournament (win, place, show, daily doubles, exactas trifectas). Thus, my handicapping of a particular race goes into more detail to lay out how I see the race playing out to determine the exacta and trifecta outcomes. Even though I do use the same sources of data, my analysis of the race gets more granular. This differs from my approach of “covering” a race for horizontal wagers where I will go deep. Also, in tournament play I am focusing on the races that are distances and surfaces where I have had greater success and feel I have more confidence. It is hard to be an expert of every race condition so I definitely have my preferences from class, distance and surface that play heavily in my tournament play. Good luck to everyone during the two best days of racing!
– Amy Brantley is a 12-time NHC qualifier and member of the NHC Players Committee

R. Scott Coles

The Breeders' Cup can be one of the best betting opportunities of the year if you are willing to be patient. The fields are so competitive that strong opinions on logical horses can often overpay. I spend a lot of time with pool selection and building bets around the best pools for my opinions and bankroll. There is no reason to play every race, but it takes more discipline than I usually have on weekends like this. Some of my most profitable weekends have been where I hit a couple big pick 3's or doubles and didn't invest as much in the always tempting pick 6's.

I spend a lot of time with replays and trip notes throughout the year and key in on horses I have saved in my virtual stables. I do extensive work with back-testing angles specific to Del Mar in STATS Race Lens to help highlight horses that might have a sneaky edge in a certain race. STATS also helps with back-testing some breeding angles and in researching the overseas shippers. Finally, I try to put it all together and see who makes the most sense with the potential pace of each race.
– R. Scott Coles was the 2019 Horseplayer of the Year and winner of the National Horseplayers Championship

Justin Mustari

I personally do not approach the Breeders' Cup from a handicapping standpoint much different than I would for any other day. I may start my process a couple days sooner but until entries and post positions are set, I would most likely not start handicapping. Other than the occasional emotional connection to a horse would be the only time I would be handicapping that specific race. That horse this year is One Timer running in the Juvenile Turf Sprint. My family and I are good friends with the connections of One Timer, so best of luck to them.

Once post positions are drawn, I use Brisnet PP's and Ragozin to do all my handicapping. My approach to the BCBC is a lot different than the NHC due to the format of “live money.” I plan around getting through day 1 with a minor increase in bankroll. Day 1 is not historically known for big scores. I like to position myself in a way that allows me to always have a chance on Day 2. By that I mean, a chance to reach the projected score I shoot for to win the contest. The hardest part of this contest Is being willing to go all in or close to it if needed. The winner will usually score over six figures in bankroll which most likely won't happen betting the race minimum.

When it comes to my live money betting style, I am not a player betting small chasing for a crazy outcome, kind of like I did in the NHC with the 19-1. I am not afraid to play huge exactas or trifectas because the pools during the Breeders' Cup allow it. When it's all said and done the guys who are at the top of the leaderboard are usually the ones who weren't afraid to bet. Good luck to everyone competing!
– Justin Mustari is the 2021 NHC Champion and Horseplayer of the Year

Tom Quigley

The Breeders' Cup is the most intense period of handicapping for horseplayers at any point during the entire year. My advice is to do as much prep work in advance as humanly possible leading up to Day 1 on Friday, which includes watching race replays (and workout videos), researching pedigrees, and trying to predict the pace scenario for each individual race.

In addition to that, and perhaps most importantly, is to strategize on how you are going to attack the card from a wagering standpoint. Most of us will have the handicapping data needed to identify the main contenders, but you should spend just as much time thinking about what wagering pools you will be playing and how you will be extracting the most value from them!

Lastly, despite the hours of prep work you may (and should) have put in, don't be rigid once Championship Day arrives. Conditions often change. A speed (or anti-speed) bias may unexpectedly develop, a key contender may scratch, a horse you may love could get overbet and/or look worse than anticipated in the paddock, etc. Be alert to every handicapping factor at all times, providing yourself every opportunity to make a huge score!
– Horseplayer Tom Quigley is VIP Player Concierge at Santa Anita, where he hosts pre-race handicapping seminars each racing day and Tweets out paddock observations at @Quigleys_Corner

Vic Stauffer

I tend to handicap the Breeders' Cup pretty much the same as any big day of racing, but the Breeders' Cup is a thousand-pound gorilla. One of the ways I've been successful as a handicapper is a work ethic that leaves literally no stone unturned, using all tools. I'll look at Daily Racing Form past performances, incorporate Thorograph and will do replays.

Replays are a laborious issue because of all the horses entered and the number of races. These two days are the only time I will look at replays of the last three races of every horse on the two cards, including the non-Breeders' Cup races that are part of the BCBC (Breeders' Cup Betting Challenge tournament). It's a lot of work, but it pays off. I'll say this is tedious, but then I'll remind myself that the next replay I watch will be the one that wins the BCBC for me.

My only betting is in the tournament, where you play dramatically different than you do at a regular day at the races with a bankroll. It's very much like the World Series of Poker. You have to look at the dollars in your bankroll as chips, not as actual dollars. If you didn't, you wouldn't be three races in and be $30,000 up and look to be all in with that $30,000. If you don't do that, you're not going to win.
– Vic Stauffer is Oaklawn track announcer and an NHC regular who has won numerous handicapping tournaments around the country, including the 2021 Pacific Classic Betting Challenge at Del Mar

Michelle Yu

When I'm looking at Breeders' Cup it definitely makes it hard because there's quality top to bottom. I like to look for a horse who was able to overcome because in the Breeders' Cup you have to be good AND lucky. A horse that was able to win despite a troubled trip, or maybe with the pace not exactly to their liking, shows that they don't need everything to be perfect to bring an A race. Also, I think workouts leading up to BC are very important. Horses generally train to peak on a certain day and it can be pretty evident in the morning if that is not the case.

Overall I still try to keep to my same betting strategies as I do the rest of the year. Things that I like, I still like; things that I don't, I don't. I don't want to talk myself on to a horse if they don't fit those parameters. Because wagering is all about the numbers; you have to maintain consistency. Otherwise you don't know what works and what doesn't.

My favorite bets for Breeders' Cup weekend are always the pic fours. Especially if there's a race I like a price horse because then I feel like I can build my ticket around helping on that price.  I think that's probably backwards from a lot of people who like to try and build around a single!

I also love the doubles: the Juvenile Fillies to the Distaff and the Juvenile to the Classic. Doubles like that are super fun for me. Anytime they do head-to-heads as well, I'm always in on those.
– Michelle Yu is an on-air host and reporter based at Santa Anita who has covered racing around the world. She previously worked for trainers Ron Moquett and Steve Asmussen and is married to Santa Anita-based horseman Ryan Hanson.

The post Breeders’ Cup Buzz: How Top Handicappers Approach The ‘Best Two Days Of Racing’ appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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