The Kentucky Oaks Top 10 for April 4

It's come down to the last few preps. An outstanding field will meet Friday at Keeneland in the GI Ashland S. Four horses on our Top 10 list will take part in that race. At Aqueduct, they'll be vying for a spot in the field for the GI Kentucky Oaks in the GIII Gazelle S. At Santa Anita, fillies will contest the GII Santa Anita Oaks, but the horse expected to be he heavy favorite, Kinza (Carpe Diem), is trained by Bob Baffert and is therefore ineligible to run in the Oaks. By Saturday evening, we should know who will be running in the Oaks and who the favorites will be.

Here's a look at the latest installment of our Kentucky Oaks Top Ten:

1) TARIFA (f, Bernardini–Kite Beach, by Awesome Again) O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star', MGSW, 5-4-0-0, $518,925. Last start: WON Mar. 23 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 150. Next Start:
GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 4.
If the Oaks were run today, Tarifa would be the favorite. She emerged this year for trainer Brad Cox and has won three straight races, including the GII Fair Grounds Oaks, Presented by Fasig-Tipton and the GII Rachel Alexandra S., Presented by Fasig-Tipton. She is good, seems to be getting better and no one is better with 3-year-old fillies than her trainer, Brad Cox. The only way she won't be the favorite is if stablemate Impel (Quality Road) puts on a show in the Ashland on Friday at Keeneland.
Tarifa's top Beyer, the 95 that she earned in the Fair Grounds Oaks is the best this year among all 3-year-old fillies.

2) IMPEL (f, Quality Road–Your Love, by Flatter) O/B-Juddmonte (Ky); T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star' 2-2-0-0, $115,200. Last Start: WON Oaklawn AOC, Mar. 3. Kentucky Oaks Points: 0. Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, April 5.
If Tarifa loses in the Oaks, it may only be because stablemate Impel is faster. She looked nothing less than sensational when winning a Mar. 3 allowance at Oaklawn by 8 1/2 lengths. She got a 91 Beyer that day. A Juddmonte homebred, she faces the acid test in the Ashland, which will be her stakes debut. She's the 2-1 morning-line favorite. But with just two starts under her belt, does she have enough seasoning? Is she ready to be tested by some of the best in the division? Those questions should be answered Friday and a win by Impel may make her the horse to beat on the first Friday in May.

3) THORPEDO ANNA (f, Fast Anna–Sataves, by Uncle Mo) O-Brookdale Racing, Inc., Mark Edwards, Judy B. Hicks & Magdalena Racing (Sherri McPeek); B-Judy Hicks (Ky); T-Kenneth McPeek. Sales history: $40,000 yrl '22 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-3-1-0, $584,363. Last Start: WON GII Fantasy S., Mar. 30. Kentucky Oaks Points: 105. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.
This 'TDN Rising Star' cracks the list for the first time this year and lands on the No. 3 spot after her impressive win in the GII Fantasy S. at Oaklawn. A bargain buy at the 2022 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall yearling sale for $40,000, her breakthrough race was a Nov. 10 allowance at Churchill which she won by nine lengths, earning an 87 Beyer. She faltered a bit in her next start when finishing second in the GII Golden Rod S. as the odds-on favorite. But she roared back with the authoritative win in the Fantasy in what was her first start this year. Trainer Kenny McPeek has had a lot of success with yearling purchases in the neighborhood of $40,000. It looks like he has done it again.

4) JUST F Y I (f, Justify–Star Act, by Street Cry {Ire}) O/B-George Krikorian (Ky); T-Bill Mott. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo filly, GISW, 3-3-0-0, $1,317,750. Last start: WON Nov. 3 GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies. Kentucky Oaks Points: 40. Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, April 5.
The champ is back. After being scratched from the GII Davona Dale S. because of a fever, she has been re-routed to the Ashland. With her coming off a five-month layoff and with the Oaks being the main goal, how ready will trainer Bill Mott have her? But the main question that remains is this: is she fast enough? Despite a 3-for-3 record last year, an Eclipse Award and a win in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, her Beyer numbers suggest she's not quite as good as she looks on paper. She needs to step up her game, but there's no reason she can't do just that.

5) JODY'S PRIDE (f, American Pharoah–Jody's Song, by Scat Daddy) O-Parkland Tbreds & Sportsmen Stable; B-Mr. Steve Weston (Ky); T-J Abreu. Lifetime Record: MSW & GISP, 4-3-1-0, $590,250. Last start: WON Mar. 2 Busher S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 65. Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, April 5.
She's a little like Just F Y I. She doesn't run particularly fast, but she just keeps on winning. After finishing second and losing by just a neck to Just F Y I in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, she returned with an easy win over outclassed rivals in the Busher Invitational S. at Aqueduct. Her connections were going to keep her in New York for the Gazelle, but changed their minds and have wound up instead in the Ashland. To show how tough the Ashland is, she is 8-1 on the morning line. She would have been an odds-on favorite in the Gazelle, so it's a bit puzzling that the connections wound up going to Keeneland instead of staying in New York.

6) POWER SQUEEZE (f, Union Rags–Callmethesqueeze, by Awesome Again) O-Lea Farms, LLC; B-Forging Oaks Farm, LLC (Ky); T-Jorge Delgado. Sales history: $50,000 yrl '22 KEESEP; $90,000 2yo '23 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: GSW, 6-4-1-0, $337,450. Last start: WON GII Gulfstream Park Oaks, Mar. 2. Kentucky Oaks Points: 120. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.
She came into the GII Gulfstream Park Oaks riding a three-race winning streak, which included a pair of stakes races. But she was totally overlooked Saturday at Gulfstream, going off at 11-1. She beat the 1-2 favorite and much hyped Ways and Means (Practical Joke), winning by a neck. She was ridden in the Gulfstream Park Oaks by Daniel Centeno. It will be interesting to see if the journeyman keeps the mount. After sprinting earlier in her career, she is 3-for-3 around two turns. Don't go to sleep on this one.

7) KOPION (f, Omaha Beach–Galloping Ami, by Victory Gallop) O-Spendthrift Farm; B-Tall Oaks Farm (Ky); T-Richard Mandella. Sales history: $270,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-1-0, $116,600. Last start: 2nd Feb. 10 GIII Las Virgenes S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 20. Next Start: GII Santa Anita Oaks, SA, April 6.
May be the only California-based filly to make it to the Kentucky Oaks. She goes Saturday in the GII Santa Anita Oaks and will once again face her nemesis, Kinza. If the race runs to form, Kinza will win and Kopion will be second. That would give Kopion enough points to make it into the field for the Oaks, where she could be in the neighborhood of 15-1. Then again, if Kinza is as good as some people think, doesn't Kopion deserve a lot of credit for finishing second behind her?

8) WAYS AND MEANS (f, Practical Joke–Strong Incentive, Warrior's Reward) O/B-Klaravich Stables (Ky); T-Chad Brown. Lifetime Record: GISP, 'TDN Rising Star,' 3-1-2-0, $165,750. Last start: 2nd Mar. 30 GII Gulfstream Park Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, May 3.
She romped in her maiden debut at Saratoga and then finished second in the GI Spinaway S., despite the fact she took a chip off her right ankle and was lame afterward. That meant a long trip to the sidelines before she launched her comeback in the Gulfstream Park Oaks where she did everything right but win. She was steadied going into the first turn, raced wide throughout and then made what appeared to be a winning move in the stretch. She just ran out of gas in the final sixteenth, which is perfectly understandable. Trainer Chad Brown is eyeing the Oaks, but says he's worried his filly won't have enough points to make it into the field of 14.

9) OUR PRETTY WOMAN (f, Medaglia d'Oro–Dazzletown, by Speightstown) O-Courtlandt Farms; B-Woods Edge Farm, LLC and Godolphin; T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $900,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSP, 3-2-1-0, $150,200. Last start: 2nd Mar. 23 GII Fair Grounds Oaks. Kentucky Oaks Points: 50. Next Start: GI Kentucky Oaks, CD, May 3.
A $900,000 yearling buy, the daughter of Medaglia d'Oro gave divisional leader Tarifa all she could handle in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She battled every step of the way before finishing second by three-quarters of a length. It was only her third start and first in a stakes, so she has plenty of room for improvement. She's quick from the gate and may be the one setting the pace in the Oaks. If she gets a good trip, there's no reason why she can't win.

10) LESLIE'S ROSE (f, Into Mischief–Wildwood Rose {Ire}, by Galileo {Ire}) O-Whisper Hill Farm; B-John D. Gunther & Eurowest Bloodstock Services (Ky); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,150,000 yrl '22 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 'TDN Rising Star', GSP, 3-2-0-1, $89,950. Last start: 3rd Mar. 2 GII Davona Dale S. Kentucky Oaks Points: 15. Next Start: GI Ashland S., KEE, April 5.
A $1.15-million purchase at Keeneland September by Into Mischief, she is 2-for-3 lifetime. This Todd Pletcher trainee has the potential to be a very good horse. She just needs to prove it in stakes company. At odds of 3-10, she was third in the Davona Dale in her stakes debut and was beaten 2 1/4 lengths. It wasn't a terrible effort, but she was somewhat of a disappointment. She must run well in the Ashland and pick up some points in order to earn a spot in the Oaks field.

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Juddmonte Juggernaut! Laurel River Wins Dubai World Cup By An Imposing Margin

DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES — When the late Arrogate overcame a world of trouble to win the 2017 G1 Dubai World Cup, many racing fans said it was the best performance in the history of the race. To some, it rates right up there with some of the best performances ever seen.

It's entirely possible that Juddmonte's Laurel River (Into Mischief) managed to upstage him Saturday with an absolutely stunning, front-running tour-de-force in the $12-million G1 Dubai World Cup at Meydan, a result that even those closest to him may not have anticipated.

Winner of the 2022 GII Pat O'Brien S.–where a horse called Senor Buscador (Mineshaft) was third–Laurel River was somewhat controversially withdrawn from that year's GI Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, a race for which he was likely to be favored. Sidelined for a spell, Juddmonte elected to transfer their homebred from Bob Baffert to the Dubai-based stable of leading trainer Bhupat Seemar in the summer of 2023.

To say things were off to an inauspicious beginning in the Emirates would be an understatement of monumental proportions. Laurel River faded tamely to finish seventh in the G3 Al Shindagha Sprint on local debut in late January, but as disappointing as that effort was, he bounced back to post an equally emphatic 6 3/4-length victory in the G3 Burj Nahaar on Super Saturday to punch his ticket to World Cup night.

Conventional wisdom dictates that winning the Burj Nahaar leads to a start in the G2 Godolphin Mile over the same course and distance on the big night, but Seemar and the Juddmonte braintrust called an audible and routed the six-year-old to the G1 Dubai World Cup instead: a race 12 times as valuable, but incrementally more challenging on a few levels, not least the 2000-metre distance of the race. Additionally, the Godolphin Mile was likely to attract the speedy Saudi Crown (Always Dreaming) and defending champion Isolate (Mark Valeski), and opting for the World Cup would eliminate the possibility of a suicidal pace duel.

“I feel like the 10 furlongs is a stretch for him, but that is a speed-favoring track and he might be the lone speed,” Juddmonte's Garrett O'Rourke told the TDN when World Cup plans were confirmed Mar. 7.

After drawing 12 of 12 at Wednesday's barrier draw at the Armani Hotel in the Burj Khalifa, many would have further downgraded the chances of Laurel River, reasoning that a horse already questionable to see out the trip would have to go hard–perhaps too hard–in order to secure the front. After all, another speedball–Panthalassa (Jpn) (Lord Kanaloa {Jpn})–had similar misfortune at the draw last year and dropped away to finish well down the field.

But there would be no such repeat Saturday evening, as Laurel River decisively surged into a clear lead with a half-mile to travel and went on to score by 8 1/2 lengths, the largest margin of victory in a World Cup at Meydan.

“I'm still coming to terms with what's happened,” Seemar said. “I think it'll probably sink in in another day or two. It's absolutely amazing. [Jockey] Tadhg [O'Shea] said this morning 'we're drawn 12, I'm not going to be two-minded about it, I'm going to go forward.'”

And go forward he did, sliding over to lead three off the inside with a circuit to travel as he had Military Law (GB) (Dubawi {Ire}) and Dura Erede (Jpn) (Duramente {Jpn}) for early company. As they turned towards the backstretch, Defunded (Dialed In) circled up so as not to sit wide the trip, and the two of them controlled the pace through the middle stages.

They put the better part of a half-dozen lengths on Dura Erede and the rail-skimming international favorite Kabirkhan (California Chrome) rounding the turn, and by the time Laurel River passed the 600-meter pole, it was really all over but the shouting. Showing no signs of stopping as he hit the top of the lane, Laurel River opened up by perhaps as many as 10 lengths  and jogged it in from there.

Senor Buscador got first run on defending champion Ushba Tesoro (Jpn) (Orfevre {Jpn}), but was run down on the wire for second while adding another $1.2 million to his $10-million grab in the G1 Saudi Cup Feb. 24.

“He brings it every time, he ran a really good race,” said trainer Todd Fincher. “He might have started his run a little early trying to catch Laurel River and maybe that cost us a placing. Hats off to Laurel River, he freaked on everybody there.”

Of the winner, Seemar added, “”He's got so much natural pace. He comes out of the gate and this is why we ran him over six furlongs [in the Al Shindagha].

“Tadhg was able to get some easy fractions and then I saw Defunded coming on his outside but he just kept on going further. I expected to see all the closers flying at him but he kept going.”

For the better part of two decades, O'Shea has pounded the pavement on the Emirates Racing Authority, and he was basking in the afterglow of his Saturday achievements. He also guided Tuz (Oxbow) to an open-lengths success in the G1 Dubai Golden Shaheen, his second in three years after missing by a nostril with defending champion Switzerland in 2023.

“I've been fortunate enough to have had Dubai World Cup night winners but you don't get many opportunities and I'm going to be forever grateful to Juddmonte for keeping me on the horse, they could use anyone and they're a worldwide operation that's really successful,” said O'Shea.

“When he had his first run for the stable, we thought he'd disappointed, but we never lost faith. He was explosive last time and I said the other morning to Bhupat, I pulled him aside and said I'd never ridden a horse with his ability ever. And he'd just done an easy work on his own.

“With the dirt you can't be half-hearted, you have to go forward. If he didn't stay, he didn't stay. We were aware of that. The main thing that won the race, it's easy to say when you win, but I was able to keep filling him up and filling him up.”

Kabirkhan sat a good inside trip, but failed to go on in the lane and finished eighth, beaten over 18 lengths.

“He was beaten a long way out,” commented his jockey Pat Dobbs. “I knew leaving the back straight he wasn't the same horse as before.”

Of the remaining Americans, Newgate (Into Mischief), Crupi (Curlin) and Clapton (Brethren) finished a distant eighth, ninth and 10th, respectively.

Pedigree Notes:

Laurel River is the 20th Grade I winner for Into Mischief and is bred on the same cross over Empire Maker responsible for 'TDN Rising Star' and GI Kentucky Derby winner Mandaloun, while other top-level winners from Fappiano-line mares include champion Covfeve, Gina Romantica, Doppelganger and Atone. Additional stakes winners by Into Mischief out of Empire Maker dams include Grade III scorers Occult and Center Aisle and Juddmonte's late Taraz.

On paper, Laurel River is bred to stay the mile and quarter and perhaps further, as his first two dams are by Belmont S. winners. Juddmonte purchased Laurel River's second dam Soothing Touch for $550,000 at the 2005 Keeneland September sale, and while she didn't work out as a racemare, she's excelled in the breeding shed.

The mare is the dam of six winners from 10 to race, including her first foal Emollient (Empire Maker), victorious in the 2013 GI Central Bank Ashland S. and the Juddmonte-sponsored GI Spinster, and her four winners as a broodmare include G2 Prix de Malleret winner Raclette (GB) (Frankel {GB}) and French listed winner Ardent (Frankel {GB}).  Soothing Touch has also accounted for Hofburg (Tapit), a stakes winner and third in the GI Belmont S; and stakes winner Courtier (Tapit).

The second foal from Soothing Touch, Laurel River has a 2-year-old half-sister by Constitution, a yearling half-brother by that son of Tapit and produced a full-sister to Laurel River four days after his victory in the Burj Nahaar.

Saturday, Meydan, Dubai
DUBAI WORLD CUP SPONSORED BY EMIRATES AIRLINE-G1, AED12,000,000, Meydan, 3-30, 3yo/up, 10f, 2:02.31, fs.
1–LAUREL RIVER, 126, h, 6, by Into Mischief
                1st Dam: Calm Water, by Empire Maker
                2nd Dam: Soothing Touch, by Touch Gold
                3rd Dam: Glia, by A.P. Indy
1ST GROUP 1 WIN. O-Juddmonte; B-Juddmonte Farms Inc
(KY); T-Bhupat Seemar; J-Tadhg O'Shea. $6,960,000. Lifetime
Record: GSW-US, 10-6-1-0-1, $7,470,676. Click for the
free Equineline.com catalogue-style pedigree. Werk Nick
Rating: A+++. *Triple Plus*. Click for the
eNicks report & 5-cross pedigree.
2–Ushba Tesoro (Jpn), 126, h, 7, Orfevre (Jpn)–Millefeui Attach
(Jpn), by King Kamehameha (Jpn). (¥25,000,000 Wlg '17
JRHAJUL). O-Ryotokuji Kenji Holdings Co Ltd; B-Chiyoda Farm
Shizunai (JPN); T-Noboru Takagi. $2,400,000.
3–Senor Buscador, 126, h, 6, Mineshaft–Rose's Desert, by
Desert God. O-Sharaf Mohammed Al Hariri & Joe R Peacock Jr;
B-Joe Peacock Sr & Joe Peacock Jr (KY); T-Todd W Fincher.
$1,200,000.
Margins: 8HF, NK, 4 3/4.
Also Ran: Wilson Tesoro (Jpn), Dura Erede (Jpn), Derma Sotogake (Jpn), Defunded, Kabirkhan, Newgate, Crupi, Clapton, Military Law (GB). Click for the ERA chart & video.

 

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Juddmonte Nominate Early-Season Targets for Gosden Stars

Arrest (Ire), who filled the runner-up spot in the G1 St Leger at Doncaster on his final start of 2023, is being prepared to make his return to action in the G3 John Porter S. at Newbury on Saturday, April 20.

Though no match for the high-class Continuous (Jpn) (Heart's Cry {Jpn}) on Town Moor, Arrest showed that he belongs at the top level with an admirable effort in defeat, having previously failed to give his running when sent off the 4/1 favourite for the G1 Derby at Epsom. The son of Frankel (GB) had put himself in the picture for the blue riband when running out a wide-margin winner of the G3 Chester Vase S. on the Roodee, while his runner-up finish in the St Leger was preceded by a second pattern-race victory when landing the G3 Geoffrey Freer S. at Newbury.

A return to the last-named venue is now on the agenda for the John and Thady Gosden-trained Arrest as he embarks on what his connections hope will be a productive four-year-old campaign in the top middle-distance events.

“He was consistent all year apart from the Derby, which I think was our own fault,” said Barry Mahon, European racing manager for owners Juddmonte. “John, Thady and myself got wrapped up a little bit in it being the Derby and we probably shouldn't have run as the ground was a bit quick and the track obviously didn't suit.

“He showed his true form on his next couple of starts and has wintered very well. John and Thady were very happy with him when speaking to them last week and the current plan, all being well, is to start in the John Porter. I think we will start off at middle-distances and see how we go. If he shows us in the middle of the summer he wants a bit further, then we will try it. But I think he has shown enough class at a mile and a half to suggest he can be competitive in those top mile-and-a-half races throughout the year.”

Mahon also issued a positive update on fellow Gosden trainee Laurel (GB) (Kingman {GB}), who has been on the sidelines since finishing down the field in last year's G1 Lockinge S. at Newbury. Beaten just once in four starts prior to that, when runner-up in the 2022 G1 Sun Chariot S. at Newmarket, Laurel reportedly has the G2 Duke Of Cambridge S. at Royal Ascot as her main target in the first part of the season.

“Laurel is back in training and John and Thady are happy with her,” Mahon added. “She's just having a slow preparation with a view to getting her to Royal Ascot later in the year, so we will probably just give her a prep run at the end of May or the beginning of June and then it will be straight to Royal Ascot if all is well with her. She is in good shape and seems to have got over her little injury, so with a bit of luck, if she stays injury free she could be an exciting prospect for the year.”

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Wednesday’s Racing Insights: Arrogate Juddmonte Homebred Filly Debuts at Gulfstream

4th-GP, $89k, Msw, 3yo/up, f/m, 1m, 2:38 p.m. ET
   Juddmonte homebred SIDAMARA (Arrogate) kicks off her career for Hall of Famer Bill Mott. The 3-year-old is out of 2012 GI Darley Alcibiades S. winner and Canadian champion 2-year-old filly Spring in the Air (Spring At Last), who brought $1.65 million from Nawara Stud at the 2015 KEENOV sale. Spring in the Air's Nawara Stud-bred 5-year-old gelding Find (GB) (Frankel {GB}) was second in the 2022 G3 Jersey S. Sidamara is the 9-5 morning-line favorite. TJCIS PPS

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