Jon Green | Horse Racing Free Tips

Derby Diary: It’s a Wrap

“That's it, time to go home.” – Unnamed Churchill Downs usher, at approximately 7:15 pm EST.

I let those words pass through me after watching our horse Helium run his eyeballs out for over nine of the 10 furlongs, in arguably the most important races of his (and my) career.

A few minutes prior I felt like I was living in an alternate universe. I was so excited when Julien Leparoux guided Helium out of the starting gate to sit a mere 2-3 lengths off the eventual winner, Medina Spirit, cruising the first four furlongs in about 47 seconds. Helium sat chilly for another three furlongs until Two-Year-Old Champion Essential Quality loomed outside of him, when Julien had to ask for more from our colt. To my amazement, Helium initially surged forwardly with that rival and heading into the top of the stretch, it looked as if our boy was in real striking distance of the leaders. At that point I was so laser focused on our maroon and white silks that it seemed as if time was slowing down, even if I could feel the adrenaline in my veins surging. For a few more moments, I honestly thought that Helium was going to hit the board in the Kentucky Derby.

And just like that, all the weeks of planning, strategizing, organizing, corresponding, talking, interviewing, packing, traveling, and handicapping washed away as Helium faded to an eighth-place finish.

Of course, there are many silver linings to this story–first and foremost is that we actually ran a horse in the Kentucky Derby. Helium improved as a racehorse and showed that he can compete with some of the most talented three-year-olds in the country.

So, despite not hitting the board in Saturday's race, I am pleased to report that I did manage to cross some bucket-list Items off my list.

Successfully managed a horse into the Kentucky Derby.
Spent quality time with my family and friends.
Received countless emails, texts and direct messages from well-wishers. I cannot thank you all enough for that.
Inspected and evaluated our 2020 and 2021 foal crops.
Made the fabled pre-Derby pilgrimage from the barn area to the paddock with my father and best friend.

On the flight home from the Kentucky Derby, I couldn't help thinking that emotional hangovers are worse than physical ones. When you consume a bit too much alcohol, you can drink tons of water, throw down a few Advil and even make yourself regurgitate in order to rid yourself of any toxins. But it will take a longer period of time to purge myself of the internal questions about how we could have given Helium a better chance to place in the Derby. This certainly was a great learning experience, and one that I will never forget.

Final thought: I realize how special it is to have one of this year's Kentucky Derby entrants and really tried to embrace every moment of it. I want to thank Sue Finley and everyone at the TDN for providing me with the opportunity to share my inner thoughts with you. And as the Churchill Downs usher so eloquently put it: “That's it, time to go home.”

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Derby Diary: A Pre-Derby Day Of Distraction

The NFL Draft is one of my favorite non-sporting events of the year. Since I was a little kid, I pored over NCAA guides, NFL magazines and mock drafts. It is probably one of the primary reasons why I wanted to be a sportscaster/writer when I was growing up. I always marveled at professionals who could consistently and accurately predict if a college player was going to be a professional athlete.

So, one day before the Kentucky Derby, I took a page out of that book and went to Lexington to look at our mares, foals and yearlings. My primary goals were to take conformation notes on our horses, discuss which ones would be entered into the upcoming yearling sales and get an idea of how our current group of mares were doing physically.

It also provided the perfect distraction for me. A day out in the sun and fresh air would keep my mind away from the excitement and anxiety that will surely befall me this evening.

My wife Michelle and I met with our equine manager, Jeff Hayslett of Taylor Made Farm. Jeff has been working with us for almost 25 years and has been extremely influential with our breeding program. I consider him our most valuable advisor when it comes to our mares and matings; rarely do we make a major decision on that front without seeking his advice.

We looked at newborn foals by Bernardini, Hard Spun, Distorted Humor, More Than Ready, Medaglia d'Oro, and Kitten's Joy and mares carrying Street Sense, Uncle Mo, Constitution, Nyquist, War of Will and Medaglia d'Oro foals. I was reminded of how much our breeding program has developed over the years. We used to own mares in-foal to O.K. By You, Rare Performer, Young Bob, Big Burn, Cannonade, Rare Brick, etc. Not that we are pedigree snobs by any means. In fact, we have been very lucky buying prospects by less-proven stallions (our Champion filly Jaywalk is a daughter of Cross Traffic, Helium is by Ironicus, and Do It With Style was by Pancho Villa). But now we focus on mating to more commercial stallions in our breeding program and buying athletes with less popular pedigrees for our racing operation.

This weekend I will review my notes and Jeff's insight with my parents and sketch out a game plan for the upcoming yearling sales. The majority of our foal crop will be entered into one of the upcoming sales and we handicap which sale will be the best venue for each. Some foals will require extra time due to a late foaling date. They will be pointed to the October Sale, as are some of the less commercially pedigreed ones. We will also discuss which of our top prospects will be entered into the Fasig-Tipton select sales and which ones will be pointed for the Keeneland September Sale. But all the yearlings are discussed and graded with our full intention on trying to maximize their sales price.

So just like the NFL scouts, we too are attempting to project and pre-determine which of our athletes have the best attributes for future success.

On our drive back to Louisville my phone started to explode with the report that King Fury was scratched out of tomorrow's Kentucky Derby. That news shook me to the core and reminded me that although we are one day away from running, we are still a long way from watching our horse compete in the Derby. The racing gods are a cruel and fickle crew.

Jon Green is the General Manager for DJ Stable, and is chronicling his Kentucky Derby experience with Helium in the 2021 Derby.

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Derby Diary: Destination Louisville

We departed New Jersey today-destination Louisville. The flight took almost two hours and thankfully was without incident.

But, in reality, the journey to this time and place began almost 40 years ago when my dad tore his Achilles while playing tennis. Back then, the best way to treat a ruptured tendon was to be placed in a cast from your ankle to your upper hip and keep your body as immobile as possible. Well, anyone who knows my dad understands that this directive was going to be short-lived. As someone once said to me decades ago, “Your father's mind is as active as a long-tailed cat at a rocking chair convention.”

So, after a few days of restlessness, my mother instructed me (at the age of nine) to take my dad out of the house. Anywhere out of the house was fine as far as she was concerned. So, I pushed my father in his wheelchair around the block a few times until a neighbor mercifully stopped us to talk about the weather, sports, the new house being built at the end of the street, etc. When those topics were exhausted, our neighbor asked if we wanted to join him at Monmouth Park – he had a $5,000 claimer who was the favorite.

The short story is that the horse won, we got our pictures taken in the winner's circle, cashed a few tickets and killed a hot summer day. On our ride home, I could see the wheels of my father's brain spinning. For the remainder of the summer, he pored over the IRS tax code seeking feverishly for horse-related depreciation schedules, hobby-loss rules, and passive vs. active definitions–yes, it's as exciting as it sounds.

That summer begat the beginning of two successful businesses-D.J. Stable and the Green Group. The former is our family-owned racing and breeding operation. The latter is my father's tax and accounting firm which specializes in the horse industry.

Technically the two businesses are mutually exclusive. But there is so much cross-over due to both groups being actively involved in our boutique industry. There are countless times when we attend sales seeking our next potential Grade I contender and end up consulting with a Green Group client about their taxes or reviewing a business opportunity. The bottom line is that we basically eat, drink, and sleep the horse business. We have found that it is the ultimate challenge trying to (as we call it) sweep the ocean back with a broom.

So now I sit here in a hotel room in Louisville, Kentucky on the last Thursday in April (not the same sexy ring as the first Saturday in May) and reflect on all the twists and turns through which our Thoroughbred career has taken us. What if my dad had not torn his Achilles tendon? What if our neighbor's claimer failed to hit the board? What if my father's interest that summer had turned to baseball instead of horse racing? What if we had not met Aron Yagoda, Mark Casse, Bo Hunt, Dr. Pugh and Susie Hart, Jeff Hayslett, the Taylor brothers from Taylor Made Sales, Bill Betz, Kim Valerio, and countless other people who have had such a positive impact on our success? What if last year's two-year-old sales were not delayed and someone else bought Helium? And finally, what if we ran out of luck, money and/or patience before we bought or bred Graded winners like Do It With Style, November Snow, Songandaprayer, Jaywalk, etc.?

The above life moments all lined up this way for a reason. So far it launched two successful businesses, provided my family with a remarkable shared interest, and presented countless opportunities for excitement (and heartbreak). Hopefully there will be more flights to Breeders' Cups, Oaks, Derbies and other Graded Stakes that I can share with my family. But for right now, I'm going to enjoy this one.

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Derby Diary: A Lifetime of a Chance

Being a Certified Financial Advisor, and the son of a CPA, I follow trends and calculate odds constantly. You can say it is in my blood to rationally analyze a set of variables and predict a logical outcome.

When the Kentucky Derby entries were announced, it was no surprise mathematically that those horses represented such a small amount of the overall foal crop. The 20 horses who line up in this Saturday's starting gate represent approximately 1/10 1% of the registered foals born in 2018 (20 of 19,925).

Basically, the odds of winning the Kentucky Derby is equivalent to:

– Finding a four-leaf clover on a hike – 1 in 10,000

– Being struck by lightning – 1 in 11,000

– Dating a Celebrity – 1 in 11,000

– Dying in a canoeing accident – 1 in 12,000

– Having a household income of less than $200,000, and subsequently being audited by the IRS – 1 in 18,000. (As the son of an accountant, I had to include this statistic)!

Knowing the odds are EXTREMELY stacked against us to even have a Derby starter, why do I feel so emotional heading into this weekend's race? Part of the reason for the uneasy feelings are the odds themselves–the sheer unlikeness of having an undefeated starter in the Kentucky Derby is overwhelming. Add into the equation the fact that my family has been in the business for about 40 years, started in over 14,000 races, won roughly 2,300 times, and competed at about 25 different racetracks nationwide makes this pending opportunity a long time coming.

We have raced horses in various weather conditions such as snowstorms, cloud bursts, fog, wind sheers, headwinds, tail winds, heat, humidity and occasionally hail.

We have lost races because the jockey went too fast or too slow, didn't listen to the pre-race instructions, should have ignored those instructions because the race fell apart, got boxed in or “just wasn't feeling it.” Our horses have not liked the surface or the distance, engaged in a speed duel, broke through the gate, got left at the gate, washed out in the paddock, lost a shoe, didn't like dirt in its face, didn't like being pinned to the rail, went too wide, got bothered or intimidated by another horse, needed to be gelded, was “horsing,” was in too tough, didn't ship well, needed blinkers, needed to have the blinkers cut back or removed, needed the race, speed wasn't holding (if you had a front runner), couldn't run down the speed (if you had a closer), didn't see the winner passing him until it was too late, got to the front and stopped, bled, had a temperature, was popping an abscess, didn't like running at night, and my favorite-bolted away from its own shadow. I am confident that I am forgetting some excuses, but you get my point.

The good news is that all of the above horses galloped out well after the wire.

So, when you have a horse who has overcome all of those possible conditions, and still remains undefeated, you get a little excited. Because despite the odds (and racing gods) being against you, here we stand a few days away from fulfilling a dream that has been 40 years in the making.

I look forward to chronicling the events of this week with you and appreciate your support for our horse Helium (Ironicus).

Jon Green is the General Manager of DJ Stables and a co-host of the TDN Writers' Room podcast. He is writing a daily diary about his first Kentucky Derby experience as an owner.

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