Jockey Club Gold Cup | Horse Racing Free Tips

Equibase Analysis: Mystic Guide Likely To Best Happy Saver In Suburban

Although this Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban Stakes drew just six entrants, it is still likely to prove to be a very exciting race because of two horses – Happy Saver and Mystic Guide. Both 4-year-olds and lightly raced, Happy Saver won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup last October and returned to the races at the end of May for a big win, while Mystic Guide returns from three months off after having won the Grade 1, $12 million Dubai World Cup in March, having finished second in the Jockey Club Gold Cup the only time he faced Happy Saver previously.

The contention does not end there, with Informative entering the race off a 79 to 1 upset in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes last month. Moretti finished third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Stakes last month following 10 months away from the races and finished second in last year's Suburban so appears to fit here. Max Player and Prioritize round out the field and appear off form, with Max Player coming into the race off a poor sixth place effort in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special and with Prioritize having finished fifth in the same race.

Assuming Mystic Guide is ready to run following a bit over three months off, I think he is more probable to win than Happy Saver based on his win in the Dubai World Cup near the end of March. Now with a record of 4-2-2 in eight career starts, Mystic Guide won the Jim Dandy Stakes last summer as a 3-year-old in only the fifth start of his career, before stretching out to 10 furlongs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Belmont last October. In that race, Mystic Guide rallied to make the lead by a head with an eight of a mile to go over Happy Saver but was beaten three-quarters of a length at the end, earning a then career-best 104 ™ Equibase® Speed Figure in the process.

Taking four and one-half months off to mature, Mystic Guide made short work of six other horses in the Razorback Stakes in his 2021 debut in February with a 108 figure, before easily defeating 11 other horses in the Dubai World Cup at the distance of the Suburban. The World Cup effort earned a 115 figure, and considering the Suburban will be his third start of the year we can expect even better. Having put in a nice series of workouts since returning to North America, including a best of 33 drill one week ago at the distance of a half-mile, Mystic Guide gets a slight edge over a very worthy opponent in Happy Saver.

Happy Saver actually earned the best ™ figure of his career in his second career start, last July at Saratoga at nine furlongs. The 116 figure was tremendous being as he had only run once before, winning his debut by five lengths in June at the distance of seven furlongs. Easily winning the Federico Tesio Stakes in September, Happy Saver set his sights on the Jockey Club Gold Cup at this 10 furlong trip and put away Mystic Guide in the final yards to earn a 109 figure. Rested nearly eight months, Happy Saver returned to beat a non-descript field of allowance foes as expected at the end of May with a 99 figure. Considering how well he ran in his second career start last July, we can expect Happy Saver to improve markedly off his 2021 debut and that is why the second match between him and Mystic Guide can be expected to be one to behold.

Informative was disregarded at 30 to 1 two races back when finishing second in an allowance race and earning a career-best 103 figure, then one month later ran even better. In the Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth on June 12, Informative rallied from last of 10 to win by a length when completely dismissed by bettors at 79 to 1 odds. The 110 figure appears legitimate and as it is as good as the 108 figure Mystic Guide earned winning the Razorback Stakes and the 109 figure Happy Saver earned winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup, and considering it could be improved upon as Informative is a 4-year-old like the other two contenders, this upstart can't be dismissed as a contender in this race.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Max Player (99), Moretti (106) and Prioritize (107).

Win Contenders:
Mystic Guide
Happy Saver
Informative

Suburban Stakes – Grade 2
Race 10 at Belmont Park
Saturday, July 3 – Post Time 5:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Quarter
Four Year Olds and Upward
Purse: $400,000

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Undefeated Happy Saver, Dubai World Cup Winner Mystic Guide Top Saturday’s Suburban

Wertheimer and Frere homebred Happy Saver puts his undefeated record on the line in Saturday's Grade 2, $400,000 Suburban, a 10-furlong test for 4-year-olds and up at Belmont Park.

The 135th renewal of the Suburban, which is a “Win and You're In” qualifier to the Grade 1, $6 million Breeders' Cup Classic in November at Del Mar, will be televised live on NBC as part of a show airing from 5 p.m. to 6 p.m. Eastern.

The Suburban will feature the one-two finishers of October's Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup won by Happy Saver by three-quarters of a length over Godolphin homebred Mystic Guide, who enters from a win in the Group 1 Dubai World Cup at Meydan.

A rail-riding Happy Saver, with Irad Ortiz, Jr. up, tracked Tacitus from third position with Mystic Guide to his outside in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, contested over a fast Belmont main track.

Mystic Guide moved outside of the pacesetter late in the turn as Happy Saver waited for racing room behind rivals that finally emerged when Tacitus came off the rail on the turn for home. Mystic Guide put a nose in front inside the final eighth, but Happy Saver squeezed up the rail to secure the win.

Trained by Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher, Happy Saver won four starts in his sophomore season, including the Federico Tesio in September at Laurel Park. The Super Saver chestnut launched his 4-year-old campaign on May 28 with a one-length score in an optional-claiming mile on Big Sandy.

Pletcher said Happy Saver, who worked a half-mile in 49.26 seconds Sunday on the Belmont dirt training track, has returned bigger and better as a 4-year-old.

“I think as an older horse he's a little more laid back in some of his works. He always performs well and he's really filled out and matured,” said Pletcher, who won the 2017 Suburban with Keen Ice.

Pletcher said the stretch out in distance will suit Happy Saver.

“For the way he ran in the Jockey Club Gold Cup last year, he's proven he likes that distance and that race looks even stronger now with what Mystic Guide has done,” said Pletcher.

Pletcher will also saddle Repole Stable and Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners' Moretti.

A 5-year-old son of Medaglia d'Oro, out of the Grade 1-winning Concerto mare Rigoletta, Moretti is a half-brother to 2017 Grade 1 Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile-winner Battle of Midway.

The consistent bay, who sports a record of 12-4-4-2 with purse earnings of $304,150, launched his current campaign with an even third in the Grade 2 Brooklyn presented by Northwell Health on Belmont Stakes Day.

Last June, Moretti captured the 11-furlong Flat Out over a sloppy Belmont main track by 5 1/4-lengths ahead of a distant second to Tacitus in last year's Suburban. He completed 2020 with a 1 1/2-length win in the 1 3/4-mile Birdstone in August at Saratoga, a title Pletcher said Moretti will have a chance to retain on August 5.

“The further the better for him,” said Pletcher. “He ran OK in here last year and this would be a nice bridge to the Birdstone to try and defend his title there.”

Ortiz, Jr. retains the mount on Happy Saver from post 6, while Flavien Prat picks up the mount on Moretti from the inside post.

Mystic Guide, trained by Mike Stidham, will be making his first appearance since capturing the Dubai World Cup on March 27 at Meydan.

The Ghostzapper chestnut, out of the multiple Grade 1-winning A.P. Indy mare Music Note, made the grade in the Grade 2 Jim Dandy in September at Saratoga ahead of his runner-up effort to Suburban rival Happy Saver in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out his sophomore season.

Mystic Guide, who has paired with Belmont Stakes-winning rider Luis Saez for his two starts this season, opened his current campaign in impressive fashion with a six-length win in the Grade 3 Razorback Handicap on a sloppy track on February 27 at Oaklawn Park, garnering a career-best 108 Beyer Speed Figure.

“Obviously, we don't really know how much the sloppy track played into that number,” said Stidham. “He came back in the Dubai World Cup and made the number look like it was real, which was good. We've given him plenty of time and he's had three months since that race to bounce back. Looking at him train and his weight and his coat, he's an absolute picture right now.”

Stidham said Mystic Guide will need to improve to turn the tables on Happy Saver.

“He needs to be faster. The bottom line is that they're both very good horses,” said Stidham. “I'm not taking anything for granted. I know Happy Saver has never been beaten and it won't be an easy race for us. I just hope we have the best horse.”

Stidham said Saez, who will pilot Mystic Guide from post 4, could be a difference maker on Saturday.

“Luis has ridden him in both races this year and he has a tremendous amount of confidence in the horse and that will play a big part,” said Stidham. “I couldn't ask to have a more talented rider on him. We have things set up for as good an effort as he's ready for.”

Informative, trained by Uriah St. Lewis for his family's Trin-Brook Stables, enters from a last-to-first score in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile at odds of 79-1 on June 12 at Monmouth Park.

The 4-year-old Bodemeister chestnut has racked up 25 career starts with three wins and three seconds, and picked up his first graded black type last out when besting Ny Traffic by one-length, garnering a career-best 99 Beyer.
Manny Franco has the call from post 2.

William L. Clifton, Jr.'s multiple graded stakes placed Prioritize, a 6-year-old Tizway gelding, finished a closing fifth last out in the Grade 3 Pimlico Special on May 14 at Pimlico Race Course.

Prioritize made his first nine starts on turf, including a third in the 2018 Grade 2 Hill Prince at Belmont, before trainer Jimmy Bond switched the bay to dirt for his last seven efforts.

The versatile Prioritize ran third in the Grade 1 Woodward Handicap in September at Saratoga ahead of a fourth in the Jockey Club Gold Cup to close out his campaign.

Joel Rosario retains the mount from post 3.

George E. Hall and SportBLX Thoroughbreds' Max Player, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, is in search of his first win since capturing the Grade 3 Withers on February 1, 2020 at Aqueduct Racetrack.

The 4-year-old Honor Code colt ran third in both the Grade 1 Belmont Stakes and Grade 1 Runhappy Travers following his Withers win for former conditioner Linda Rice.

Transferred to Asmussen for a fall campaign, Max Player finished fifth in both the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby and Grade 1 Preakness in a Triple Crown campaign schedule which was readjusted due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Max Player opened his season with an off-the-board effort in the Group 1 Saudi Cup at King Abdulaziz Racecourse in February and ran sixth last out in the Pimlico Special.

Ricardo Santana, Jr. has the call from post 5.

The Suburban is carded as the closing race on Saturday's 10-race program. First post is 1 p.m. Eastern.

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May 28 Insights: Happy Saver Returns at Belmont

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3rd-BEL, $96K, Alw/Opt. Clm, 4yo/up, 1m, 2:02 p.m. ET

Wertheimer and Frere's undefeated Grade I winner HAPPY SAVER (Super Saver) is slated to make his first start since October in this one-mile allowance/optional claiming affair early on Friday's card at Belmont. Debuting last June with a powerful 5 1/2-length score going seven local furlongs that earned 'TDN Rising Star' honors. Repeating with a four-length success when stretched out to two turns at Saratoga, the homebred passed his first stakes test in annexing the Federico Tesio S. at Laurel. Eschewing a try at the GI Preakness S. to take on older horses in the GI Jockey Club Gold Cup, the chestnut earned a hard-fought victory over subsequent G1 Dubai World Cup hero Mystic Guide (Ghostzapper). Trainer Todd Pletcher decided not to try the colt in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic and instead prepare him for a 4-year-old campaign, and Happy Saver shows a half-dozen breezes split evenly between Palm Beach Downs and Saratoga, most recently going five furlongs in 1:01 3/5 (3/13) May 21 at the Spa. TJCIS PPs —@JBiancaTDN

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Stidham Shipping Mystic Guide To Dubai World Cup ‘With A Lot Of Confidence’

Known as a top-tier trainer in the U.S. for decades, Mike Stidham now, finally, takes his well-respected show on the road with his first starter outside North America, Godolphin's Mystic Guide. The winner of more than 2,100 races has brought the son of Ghostzapper along patiently, but a one-sided victory in February's $600,000 Razorback Handicap (G3) convinced him that a trip to the UAE for the $12 million Dubai World Cup (G1) is an obvious next step.

“We felt really confident that he had moved forward from last year, his 3-year-old year,” Stidham explained. “We could tell just by the way he was training and how he seemed mentally and physically. We felt we had him ready to go to Oaklawn Park and run a good race, but then we got there there was rain and a sea of slop on the track. You don't know for sure how they're going to handle a wet track like that, although his dam (multiple G1 winner) Music Note won a Grade 1 in the slop, so that gave us a little confidence. Then when you watch the race, you see he was four- and five-wide on the turns–you worry about that–but then he pulled away like he did in the stretch and earned a 108 Beyer (Speed Figure), which exceeded our expectations.

“Sometimes you worry, when a horse goes far past their top number, that there could be a good chance of a 'bounce,' but he's certainly come out great and he's looking fantastic,” the 48-time graded stakes-winning conditioner continued. “He's back here at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans and will have a work here before we ship. I have no reason to believe he's going to regress, so we'll see how he handles the travelling. If all is well, we'll get an easy breeze over the track at Meydan.”

A well-made chestnut with a flashy blaze, the blue-blooded homebred is another in a long line of graded stakes performers brought along deliberately by the Stidham operation that is co-spearheaded by longtime assistant Hilary Pridham. The training yard has flourished with an impressive breadth of runners, including juveniles, older horses, sprinters, routers, dirt and turf runners. The highlight reel includes G1-winning fillies Sutra, Two Altazano, Her Emmynency and Zipessa, as well as G2/G3-winning older males Synchrony, Manzotti and Willcox Inn–but it is in the last few years, when teaming with Godolphin, that the bar has been raised.

As recent as last weekend, Godolphin, Stidham and jockey Luis Saez–Mystic Guide's expected pilot in Dubai–joined forces to bring home Micheline in the Hillsborough Stakes (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs, the ninth graded stakes Stidham has won for HH Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum. Mystic Guide has earned two of those, including Saratoga's Jim Dandy (G2) in decisive style over Jesus' Team, whom he likely faces again in Dubai. That effort was part of a carefully crafted sophomore season for the three-time winner from seven starts (never worse than third).

“We've made the same types of decisions with him throughout his career,” Stidham said. “Through the whole of his 3-year-old year, we had temptations to run in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after his big maiden win and then the postponed Kentucky Derby (G1). We never felt he was quite ready to win those races just yet. He was a step behind where he needed to be for us to feel confident, so we waited for 3-year-old races like the Peter Pan and the Jim Dandy. It was the right thing to do. You could see him gradually improving as the year went on.

“We decided to try him in a Grade 1 in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and he ran a great race to be second, improving again, but we felt like he wasn't quite where he needed to be to win the Breeders' Cup Classic,” he continued. “We just did what was right for him and never forced him into any spot. We gave him a break, but he never left the track, and we were able to fresh him over the winter. Now we're reaping the rewards of doing that.”

A charismatic type who is loved around the Stidham barn, Mystic Guide enters the 10-furlong (2000m) contest on March 27 as a favorite of tipsters, as well.

“He's straight-forward and is an easy-galloping horse on the track,” Stidham continued. “He can be a little aggressive around the barn, but he's a really intelligent horse. I have had a lot of really great older turf horses, but I haven't had an older dirt handicap horse like him, so it's a lot of fun for me.”

Stidham's relationship with Godolphin is part of the recent expansion and resulting success the 'Boys in Blue' have had in America, including 2020 champion Essential Quality with Brad Cox and once-beaten star Maxfield with Brendan Walsh. Stidham, like many of the trainers working for the operation, is justifiably hopeful for an even brighter future.

“It's been an unbelievable time,” he explained. “To have horses like Mystic Guide, his half-brother Gershwin, Micheline, (G2 Del Mar Derby winner) Pixelate and Proxy, who could be a (Kentucky) Derby horse–it's a lot of really amazing things going on right now. I have to pinch myself, sometimes, because I've been in the business 45 years and watched these horses with other trainers. For me to actually have a couple is pretty outstanding.

“When we get our 2-year-olds in April, we may get 15 or 20 of them, and you immediately see the stallion power with sires like Hard Spun, Tapit, Curlin, Medaglia d'Oro and others that are coupled with mares like Panty Raid (G1-winning dam of Micheline) and Music Note. It's only a matter of time before the pedigrees line up. I really want to thank and congratulate Jimmy Bell and Dan Pride at Godolphin for doing a fantastic job diversifying things and spreading these horses throughout the country with all these trainers.”

First things first, as Stidham is doing anything but resting on his laurels. The 18% lifetime conditioner is fixated on his first global success when he starts Mystic Guide against a field that likely includes Jesus' Team, as well as G1 Champions Cup winner Chuwa Wizard, multiple graded stakes winner Sleepy Eyes Todd and UAE stars Salute the Soldier and Military Law.

“We're going there with a lot of confidence,” Stidham concluded. “I think the track will suit him and one of his best races was going a mile and a quarter. From what I've seen watching previous Dubai World Cups, it looks like you don't want to be too far back and he's a tactical horse. He can be laying in a forward-type of position at that distance and we know he can get the distance. With all those things included, I'm very optimistic about our chances.”

Luck permitting, Mystic Guide and the remainder of the American DWC contingent are expected to arrive in Dubai on March 17, St Patrick's Day. Stidham and Pridham will join soon after to oversee final preparations.

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