Weekend Lineup: Kentucky Derby Prep Season Heating Up

The racing spotlight focuses on the Road to the Kentucky Derby this weekend, with three qualifying points races to be run on New Year's Day at Aqueduct, Oaklawn and Santa Anita. A total of 17 points are offered in each race on a 10-4-2-1 basis to the top four finishers.

A fourth race for 3-year-olds, the Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park, is not a points race but kicks off the road to the G1 Florida Derby, traditionally one of the most productive races that leads to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May.

Aqueduct's $150,000 Jerome, run at one mile around one turn, has drawn a field of eight 3-year-olds. Fourteen have been entered in Oaklawn's $250,000 Southwest, run at a mile around two turns. Five are scheduled to go postward in the $100,000 Sham, a Grade 3 race run around two turns at one mile at Santa Anita. Two of the five are trained by Bob Baffert, whose horses are not eligible for Kentucky Derby points due to his being excluded from all Churchill Downs tracks after Medina Spirit, first-place finishers in the 2021 Kentucky Derby, failed a post-race drug test.

In addition to the races for Triple Crown hopefuls, there are two other graded stakes on Santa Anita's New Year's Day program: the G2 Joe Hernandez for older turf sprinters running on the picturesque downhill turf course; and the G3 Robert J. Frankel for fillies and mares going 1 1/8 miles on the infield grass oval.

Here's a brief look at the four 3-year-old races (all times Eastern).

Saturday

3:50 p.m. – Jerome at Aqueduct

The Jerome was first run in 1866 and has been won by some legendary horses, but that was when it was contested during the fall. Since being moved to January, it has not attracted classic prospects.

This year's field is led by Jeremiah O'Dwyer-trained Cooke Creek, an Uncle Mo colt who was 2-for-2 at Delaware Park before a good second to Baffert-trained Rockefeller in the G3 Nashua Stakes Nov. 7. He draws the inside post and will be ridden by Manny Franco. Starting from the outside post will be the Rudy Rodriguez-trained Hagler, the expected pacesetter who won back-to-back sprint races at Belmont and Aqueduct and is making his stakes debut. Jorge Vargas Jr. rides.

Jerome entries

4:42 p.m. – Mucho Macho Man at Gulfstream Park

Morning line favorite Strike Hard has a win over the Gulfstream surface at the same distance as the Mucho Macho Man but disappointed in his only stakes start for trainer Matthew Williams when sent to Churchill Downs for a seventh-place finish in the G3 Iroquois Stakes in September. Junior Alvarado rides. Graphic Detail, a Practical Joke colt trained by Hall of Famer Bill Mott, won at first asking at Belmont Park Nov. 6 and has been training steadily at Payson Park. Red-hot Luis Saez has the mount.

Mucho Macho Man entries

6:13 p.m. – Smarty Jones at Oaklawn

Oaklawn has built a formidable series of races for 3-year-olds leading to the Triple Crown. After Saturday's Smarty Jones comes the $750,000, G3 Southwest Stakes on Jan. 29; the $1 million, G2 Rebel on Feb. 26; and the $1,250,000, G1 Arkansas Derby on April 2.

The Smarty Jones appears to be a wide open contest, with Chris Hartman-trained Kavod – a $50,000 claim at Churchill Downs in November – the only stakes winner in the field of 14. He won the six-furlong Advent Stakes at Oaklawn Dec. 3. Home Brew, a Street Sense colt from the Brad Cox barn, comes off a solid allowance win going a mile at Oaklawn Dec. 4 and is the morning line favorite. He began his career in Maryland with Kelly Breen and was transferred after that race to Cox, finishing second in a Nov. 14 Churchill Downs allowance race before his local win. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen has a trio entered in the Smarty Jones, but two of them – Cairama and Cool Papa G – drew the 11 and 12 posts, respectively, posing a serious challenge for their riders. His best hope may rest with All in Sync, breaking from the two post under Ricardo Santana Jr. A 12-1 longshot breaking from the rail is Kenny McPeek-trained Dash Attack, a Munnings colt who captured his debut at Oaklawn by 1 1/4 lengths. David Cohen rode him that day and will be aboard again on Saturday.

Smarty Jones entries

7:00 p.m. – Sham at Santa Anita

Rockefeller and Newgrange represent the barn of Bob Baffert, who dominates California races for 2- and 3-year-olds on dirt. Rockefeller comes off a win in the G3 Nashua after being sent to  Belmont in November and Newgrange won at first asking at Del Mar. Mackinnon, third in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf for trainer Doug O'Neill, is testing the main track for the first time since his debut at Santa Anita last May. Oviatt Class is a talented horse who would benefit from a quick pace. He was an unlucky fifth behind Corniche in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile for trainer Keith Desormeaux and his brother, Hall of Fame jockey Kent Desormeaux.

Sham entries

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TVG Plans ‘Year In Review’ Feature For New Year’s Eve

Horse racing fans can tune into TVG on New Year's Eve at 6:00 p.m. ET/3:00 p.m. PT on Friday for a special “Year in Review” feature. The network will take a look back at memorable racing moments throughout 2021 including Triple Crown prep races, the Breeders' Cup from Del Mar and international racing. On Saturday, newly-minted 3-year-olds will compete for Kentucky Derby (G1) points in the $250,000 Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, $100,000 Sham Stakes (G3) from Santa Anita and the $150,000 Jerome Stakes from Aqueduct.

TVG's Caleb Keller will be reporting live from Oaklawn Park on Saturday. The Smarty Jones Stakes will offer 10-4-2-1 points towards a spot in the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby and the race has drawn a full field of fourteen. Home Brew, one of two contenders for trainer Brad Cox, has been installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite and will be ridden by Florent Geroux. A homebred son of Street Sense for Gary and Mary West, he has one two of his three starts and will be making his stakes debut.

Kentucky Derby points will be up for grabs at Santa Anita in the $100,000 Sham Stakes (G3), one of four graded stakes races on the card along with the $250,000 Joe Hernandez Stakes (G2), $200,000 La Canada Stakes (G3) and the $100,000 Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3). Todd Schrupp, Britney Eurton, Christina Blacker, Scott Hazelton, Dave Weaver and Kurt Hoover will be reporting live from Santa Anita throughout the day with exclusive interviews, analysis and features.

Gulfstream Park has a loaded card featuring six black-type events on Saturday. Larry Collmus and Andie Biancone will be reporting live from the track with interviews and expert analysis. The featured event is the $150,000 Mucho Macho Man Stakes, a one mile contest for 3-year-olds. Strike Hard, fresh off of an allowance win at Gulfstream in December, is the 2-1 morning line favorite for trainer Matthew Williams and will have Junior Alvarado in the irons as he faces five rivals.

In addition to racing from Oaklawn Park and Santa Anita TVG will be featuring racing from Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, Fair Grounds, Aqueduct and more. Fans can tune in on TVG, TVG2 and the Watch TVG app which is available on Amazon Fire, Roku and connected Apple TV devices.

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Equibase Analysis: Hagler Could Throw Knockout Punch In Jerome Stakes

Eight horses are entered in Saturday's $150,000 Jerome Stakes, which kicks off the Road to the Kentucky Derby for 2022 in New York. The rest of the series consists of the Withers Stakes on Feb. 5 and the Gotham Stakes on March 5 before culminating in the Wood Memorial Stakes on April 9.

Leading this field is a pair of recent stakes placed runners in Cooke Creek and Ohtwoohthreefive. Cooke Creek won the Rocky Run Stakes in October and was most recently second in the Grade 3 Nashua Stakes in November, while Ohtwoohthreefive missed by a nose in the Central Park Stakes on turf near the end of November and tries dirt for the first time for his seventh career start.

Mr Jefferson also enters the Jerome off a stakes try, as he was fourth of eight in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Belmont four weeks ago. Rumble Strip Ron finished second in the Best of Ohio Stakes in October which was a race restricted to horses bred in Ohio, and he enters the race off a claiming race in November so this will be a big test.

Then there are a quartet of recent winners, including Hagler, who broke his maiden in October and then bested allowance company on Dec. 16. The other recent winners, Courvoisier, Smarten Up and Unbridled Bomber, all enter the Jerome Stakes off maiden wins and will attempt to prove they belong at this level.

Top contenders:

Hagler gets a great outside post for this one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct and appears to be the type who can be on the lead or just off the pace from the start, which is an advantage in many ways. He and jockey Jorge Vargas, Jr. can wait a few strides to see if another horse wants the lead at the start, at that point taking up a stalking position, or if no other horse wants the lead Hagler can take command. The latter is exactly what he did in his most recent race on Dec. 16 at Aqueduct where he led from start to finish.

Prior to that, on Oct. 29, Hagler stayed in second for the first half-mile before drawing off to win by four and one-half lengths. Both victories came with Vargas, Jr. in the saddle, and the first of the two earned an 84 ™ Equibase Speed Figure which, if logically improved on in the colt's third start off a layoff, puts him in range of the top horse's figures in the field.

Those top figures belong to the other two main contenders: Ohtwoohthreefive (93) and Cooke Creek (89). Trainer Rudy Rodriguez has a very good 20 percent win rate when stretching a horse out in distance at Aqueduct (per Race Lens) over the last two years, with a +38 percent return on investment and a median win payoff of $13. As such, I expect Hagler to win his third race in a row and put his name squarely into the Road to the Kentucky Derby with a big effort in the Jerome Stakes.

Ohtwoohthreefive has raced exclusively on turf to date, with a record of 1-2-2 in six races. His best effort came in his most recent race on Nov. 27 in the Central Park Stakes, where he rallied to lead with an eighth of a mile to go then battled nose-and-nose down to the wire, losing by inches at the finish. Nevertheless, the 95™ figure he earned is the best by any horse in the field. Whether that type of effort is transferrable to dirt does not appear to be a question as his sire is Union Rags, himself a talented colt on dirt including a win in the 2012 Belmont Stakes. Additionally, trainer George Weaver has a creditable five-for-16 record when moving a horse from turf to dirt over the last 12 months. Jockey Kendrick Carmouche rode Ohtwoohthreefive for the first time that day and rides back in the Jerome, and if the early pace is hotly contested this colt could be the one to get up in time and win.

Cooke Creek is the only horse in the Jerome Stakes field with a stakes win, and that win came at the same mile trip as this race. He won his debut when sprinting easily in September with a 76 figure then stretched out to a mile and won the Rocky Run Stakes in October, earning an 89 figure. Trying much tougher foes in the Nashua Stakes in November, Cooke Creek was no match for winner Rockefeller when second the entire length of the stretch but he was nearly three lengths clear of the next horse, earning an 86 figure in the process. With jockey Manuel Franco riding back after getting familiar with the colt in the Nashua, Cooke Creek certainly can win this race with just slight improvement off his Rocky Run effort.

The rest of the field, with their best ™ Equibase Speed Figures, is Courvoisier (85), Mr Jefferson (82), Rumble Strip Ron (77), Smarten Up (71) and Unbridled Bomber (82).

Win contenders, in preference/probability order:
Hagler
Ohtwoohthreefive
Cooke Creek

Jerome Stakes
Race 8 at Aqueduct
Saturday, Jan. 1, 2022 – Post Time 3:50 PM E.T.
One Mile
Three Year Olds
Purse: $150,000

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Nashua Runner-Up Cooke Creek Headlines Saturday’s Jerome

Cheyenne Stable's Cooke Creek takes his first step on the Kentucky Derby trail in Saturday's 152nd renewal of the $150,000 Jerome, a one-turn mile for newly-minted sophomores, at Aqueduct Racetrack.

Inaugurated in 1866, the Jerome, which offers 10-4-2-1 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the top-four finishers, is slated as Race 8. First post on the nine-race New Year's Day card is 12:20 p.m. Eastern.

Trainer Jeremiah O'Dwyer said he is looking forward to Cooke Creek's sophomore debut.

“He's a very game horse and very honest. He loves to train and a very forward going horse,” O'Dwyer said. “The type of horse he is, I think he'll be a better 3-year-old – and he'll have to be to stay going along the road we hope he can stay on, chasing those nice stakes races and maybe get a few Kentucky Derby points along the way.”

The Uncle Mo colt made his first two starts at Delaware Park, graduating on debut in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint in September ahead of a gutsy half-length score around two turns in the one-mile Rocky Run on Oct. 16.

He enters from a good second in the Grade 3 Nashua, a one-turn mile won by the well-regarded Rockefeller on Nov. 7 at Belmont Park.

With returning rider Manny Franco up, Cooke Creek tracked the speedy Rockefeller from third position and advanced four-wide through the stretch run, comfortably earning the place honors by 2 3/4-lengths over Judge Davis.

“He's not very quick to go through his gears. It takes him a little while to get into top gear, but once he does he gets that stride going,” O'Dwyer said. “He was never going to beat Rockefeller that day, but he was still gaining the whole way towards the line and he always gallops out good.

“The more distance he gets, the better he's going to be,” O'Dwyer added. “I know we're going a one-turn mile here again, but I'm looking forward to getting him going two turns again after this next race.”

O'Dwyer said he gave the colt a short break after the Nashua and he has since breezed him back twice, including an easy five-eighths in 1:02.80 on Dec. 24 at Laurel Park.

“We backed off on him for 30 days after his last race to let him grow and get a little bit stronger,” O'Dwyer said. “I think there's more improvement in him. He's done nothing wrong so far. He's had two breezes since his last race and breezed good both times, so we'll let him take his chance there on Saturday. He's a lovely looking horse and very strong. He needs to go and run now.”

In order to topple a talented field of eight on Saturday, Cooke Creek will have to overcome the inside post.

“I'm not delighted about the one-hole, but hopefully there's enough speed in there that he can get into his own nice rhythm,” O'Dwyer said. “I see him in the middle to the second half of them and hopefully he'll be running them down towards the finish.”

O'Dwyer boasts past Derby prep success at the Big A having won the 2019 Grade 2 Remsen with Shotski, which also marked the first graded win for the conditioner.

He said he appreciates the opportunity to train the talented Cooke Creek, who is out of the graded-stakes winning Bernardini mare Genre.

“He's a homebred for great owners. They've supported me for the last few years, always sending a couple our way,” O'Dwyer said. “This seems to be the nicest one we've had for them yet and hopefully he can take us a little bit further up the ladder.”

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James Politano's Ohtwoohthreefive will make his dirt debut for trainer George Weaver out of a narrow nose loss to Sy Dog in the 1 1/16-mile Central Park over the Aqueduct outer turf on Nov. 27.

A veteran of six starts, Ohtwoohthreefive graduated in a restricted event on Oct. 15 traveling one-mile over Belmont's Widener turf and followed up with an even fifth in the 1 1/16-mile Awad over the same course on Nov. 5.

Blair Golen, the New York-based assistant for Weaver, said Ohtwoohthreefive benefited from a more prominent trip under returning rider Kendrick Carmouche in the Central Park after a wide outing in the Awad.

“The way the race worked out [in the Awad], it just put him in a real wide trip,” Golen said. “Last time, Kendrick rode him and he didn't have to get out so wide and he put him a little bit closer. The way the race panned out was perfect for him.”

Golen said Carmouche was pleased with how the colt moved over the dirt during a five-eighths breeze in 1:01.66 Dec. 19 over the Belmont training track.

“Kendrick said he hits the ground on the dirt the same as he does on the turf,” Golen said. “He's always breezed well over it and done everything right. I don't have any complaints with him.”

By Union Rags and out of the Galileo mare Urban Hill, Ohtwoohthreefive was purchased for $20,000 at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training.

Golen said the improving bay has matured over the course of his 2-year-old campaign.

“He's just got a lot bigger,” Golen said. “He was always kind of a round horse and a little smaller but George took him to Saratoga and when he came back to me at Belmont he was bigger and more muscled. He really filled out and mentally matured, too.”

Carmouche will guide Ohtwoohthreefive from post 3.

Hill 'n' Dale Equine Holdings and James D. Spry's Courvoisier will make his stakes debut after a fourth-out graduation traveling nine furlongs on Dec. 2 at the Big A for trainer Kelly Breen.

A $600,000 purchase at the 2019 Keeneland November Breeding Stock Sale, Courvoisier is by Tapit and out of the multiple Grade 1-winning Giant's Causeway mare Take Charge Brandi.

Courvoisier, who worked five-eighths in 1:01.44 Dec. 24 over the Belmont dirt training track, will exit post 6 under Jose Ortiz.

Trainer Michael Trombetta, who won the 2020 Jerome with Independence Hall, returns with another son of Constitution in R. L. Johnson's Maryland homebred Mr Jefferson, who will look to make amends following a distant fourth in the nine-furlong Grade 2 Remsen on Dec. 4 at Aqueduct.

Mr Jefferson exited the outermost post 8 under Kendrick Carmouche in the Remsen and was caught four-wide into the first turn. The chestnut chased wide through the final turn, but could not make a dent on the widening margins of Mo Donegal who nosed out Zandon for the win.

“The slow pace hurt his chances a little bit and it made him go wide. They were bottled up, but I think the top two horses were very good horses,” Trombetta said.

Mr Jefferson graduated at second asking in his dirt debut traveling six furlongs on Aug. 25 at Colonial Downs. Following a distant fourth in a return to grass in October at Laurel Park, Mr Jefferson added blinkers and defeated winners at 1 1/16 miles over the Laurel main track on Nov. 4.

Trombetta said he added blinkers to provide focus rather than speed.

“Like most horses, it helps him with his focus a little bit,” Trombetta said. “He's a bigger colt and a longer-striding colt. His best attribute is that he can cruise along pretty comfortably and keep himself in the race.”

Mr Jefferson has breezed back twice at Fair Hill since the Remsen, including a five-furlong effort in 1:02 flat on Dec. 24 as he prepares to cut back to one turn.

“He's training well and I'm happy with him. I think he'll like the distance,” Trombetta said.

Mr Jefferson, who will exit post 7 under Mychel Sanchez, is out of the Malibu Moon mare Clockstrucktwelve – a half-sister to multiple stakes-winner Never Enough Time.

Ron Paolucci Racing's Rumble Strip Ron, an Ohio-bred son of Klimt, enters from a runner-up effort in a six-furlong claiming sprint on Nov. 20 at Churchill Downs won by Kavod, who exited that effort to win the Advent at Oaklawn Park.

Trained by Anthony Quartarolo, Rumble Strip Ron won a claiming mile three starts back at Churchill ahead of a runner-up effort in the 1 1/16-mile Best Of Ohio Juvenile in October at Mahoning Valley Race Course.

Rumble Strip Ron will emerge from post 4 under Eric Cancel.

Unbridled Bomber, trained and co-owned by James Ryerson with Edward Potash and Brad Yankanich, graduated by a neck last out traveling a one-turn mile over Big Sandy on Nov. 7.

The $35,000 purchase at the OBS Spring Sale of 2-Year-Olds in Training has posted a series of sharp works over the Belmont dirt training track, including a bullet half-mile in 47.55 Dec. 23.

The Upstart colt, out of the Eddington mare Unbridledexplosion, will leave from post 2 under Dylan Davis, who piloted last year's Jerome winner Capo Kane.

E. V. Racing Stable's Hagler enters on a two-race win streak for trainer Rudy Rodriguez, who won the 2013 Jerome with Vyjack.

Hagler graduated at second asking in a 6 1/2-furlrong maiden special weight sprint on Oct. 29 at Belmont, drawing clear by 4 1/2-lengths to garner a 78 Beyer Speed Figure. He followed with a front-running win last out in a seven-furlong optional-claiming sprint on Dec. 16 at the Big A.

The Florida-bred Tapiture colt, out of the Latent Heat mare Ambitious Dancer, is a full sibling to stakes winner Sky of Hook.

Jorge Vargas, Jr. retains the mount from the outermost post 8.

Rounding out the field is Happy Tenth Stable's Smarten Up, who was scratched out of Wednesday's Parx Juvenile by trainer Alfredo Velazquez. The American Freedom chestnut romped to a nine-length maiden win last out at third asking traveling one mile and 70 yards on Nov. 22 at Parx.

Anthony Salgado, aboard for all three career starts, is named to ride from post 5.

America's Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the winter meet at Aqueduct Racetrack on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

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