Instant Coffee | Horse Racing Free Tips

Grade III Double Feature for Fair Grounds Saturday

On Saturday at the Fair Grounds in New Orleans, the age-old wager known as the Daily Double will encompass a pair of Grade III races late on the card. The GIII Louisiana S. for older males will give way to a group of youthful 3-year-olds in the GIII Lecomte S., as they look to chase Kentucky Derby points that have expanded to 20-8-6-4-2 for the top five finishers.

Calhoun Looks to Continue Louisiana Hot Hand

Bret Calhoun continues to lead in the trainer standings during the meet for an award that he has yet to win, despite much success in the past. He has a trio of entries in the Louisiana S. with Mr. Wireless (Dialed In) being the most experienced stakes contender. The 5-year-old gelding is priced well at 5-1, but will probably be overshadowed by his stablemate Run Classic (Runhappy), who returned to racing last fall after being off for a year and a half. He was fourth in the $200,000 Tinsel S. at Oaklawn Park Dec. 17.

Standing in Calhoun's way is Brad Cox, who has a pair of runners entered that are drawn towards the outside. Of these, Zozos (Munnings) made some noise last spring along the Derby Trail when he won an optional claiming race at Oaklawn Feb. 11 by an impressive 10 1/4 lengths to become a 'TDN Rising Star'. A second to now-retired Epicenter in the GII Louisiana Derby and a 10th-place finish in GI Kentucky Derby followed before the homebred went to the bench. His tune-up at the Fair Grounds Dec. 17 tells us that he is ready for his 4-year-old debut. One other entry that merits consideration is Business Model (Candy Ride {Arg}). Sure to be a price at 15-1 on the morning-line, the Brendan Walsh trainee caught a slow pace in the Tenacious S. Dec. 26 that was not to his liking. The race shape could be much different this time around.

Derby Dreams Brewing for Gold Square's Instant Coffee

New stakes coordinator Stu Slagle has put together a solid field of eight for this year's Lecomte S., despite Paulo Lobo reporting that out of his two entries, Itzos (Bolt d'Oro) will scratch. Last year, Gold Square enjoyed the fruits of the Derby Trail when Cyberknife (Gun Runner) rallied to win the GI Arkansas Derby. They are back with Brad Cox for more rose-colored dreams with Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) who already has 12 Kentucky Derby points to his credit. After breaking his maiden first-out at Saratoga Sept. 3-with future GII Remsen S. Hero Dubyyuhnell (Good Magic) fourth–he was fourth in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland Oct. 8 to eventual GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Forte (Violence), but came back and won the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. at Churchill Downs Nov. 26. With Luis Saez in the irons once again, he will be heard from late in the game.

A major threat to Cox, who also has Tapit's Conquest (Tapit), is GIII Street Sense S. winner Two Phil's (Hard Spun). The colt broke his maiden at Colonial Downs July 18 at second asking, and after a romping win in the Shakopee Juvenile S. at Canterbury Park Sept. 17, the Larry Rivelli trainee was seventh in the Breeders' Futurity. Being forwardly placed is a essential for this runner, which will be Jareth Loveberry's tactical challenge. Confidence Game (Candy Ride {Arg}) should be the pacesetter and he has proven dangerous on the engine. Though he was fifth to Curly Jack (Good Magic) in the GIII Iroquois S. at Churchill Downs Sept. 17 after winning in his second career race in Louisville Aug. 13, he certainly showed grit going wire-to-wire under the Twin Spires against optional claimers Nov. 26. Bred by Summer Wind Equine LLC and out of a half-sister to Zenyatta (Street Cry {Ire}), he will be looking to ride the merry-go-round on Saturday.

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Instant Dividends From a Long Saga

It's not like you just add water. For the very possibility of reaping the ultimate harvest with Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro), on the first Saturday in May, has only been able to take root because the ending of even the longest stories, in this game, can always prove the start of a new chapter.

Having already demonstrated an aptitude for the Churchill surface in winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S., Instant Coffee resumes the Derby trail in the GIII Lecomte S. at the Fair Grounds on Saturday. And while those most immediately concerned in his performance are owners Gold Square LLC and the Brad Cox team, the colt also has the chance to script a heartening sequel to the poignant renunciation of a quest that had stirred much nostalgia in Maryland and beyond.

That Sagamore Farm happens to be registered as Instant Coffee's breeder is evidently more or less a quirk of bureaucracy. A deal had already been done for his dam Follow No One (Uncle Mo) to join the broodmare band at Upson Downs Farm in Goshen, Ky., and Instant Coffee was foaled, raised and prepared for sale there. But his existence nonetheless owes much to those years when Kevin Plank, as a proud son of Maryland, strove to restore Sagamore as a force in the Thoroughbred world.

It was here, of course, that Alfred G. Vanderbilt II bred Native Dancer before launching him on one of the greatest track careers in Turf history. “The Gray Ghost of Sagamore” subsequently achieved an enduring legacy at stud, notably via Raise A Native and Natalma, and is buried at the farm. And there were moments, during the Plank revival from 2007, when those specters found fresh company on the national stage: as when Shared Account (Pleasantly Perfect) won the GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf in 2010, and Global Campaign (Curlin) won the GI Woodward H. a decade later.

Even as the latter was preparing for his swansong in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic, however, it was announced that the farm was to be turned over to wheat and rye in support of Sagamore Spirit whiskey. Global Campaign ran an excellent third, and is now bidding to extend the farm's Turf heritage as a WinStar stallion. But for Hunter Rankin, the impressive young president of Sagamore's Thoroughbred program since 2015, it was time to find a new path in the industry.

Little could he realize that the twists and turns of fate had already reserved a wonderful consolation for the disappointing end of this particular adventure. For it was Rankin who bought Follow No One for Sagamore as a juvenile, at the OBS April Sale of 2016; and, after she failed to reach her reserve at $85,000 at the Keeneland November Sale in 2018, it was his father Alex who was able to agree terms with Plank to keep her for the family farm. Moreover it was Sagamore's final flourish with Global Campaign, trained by his cherished mentor Stan Hough, that helped to steer Rankin towards that horse's half-brother Bolt d'Oro (Medaglia d'Oro) as an appropriate first cover for Follow No One. The result is Instant Coffee.

So while the ambition to rekindle Sagamore as a beacon of the Maryland Turf was ultimately reduced to ashes, Rankin has been delighted to stoke up a final flame out of the embers; to have found a way, so to speak, of adding a little “more” to this great “saga”.

“Yeah, it's really cool,” he says. “I was very proud of what we tried to do there, of the effort that we put in to get where we were trying to go, which was to compete at the highest level and breed the best horses we could. It didn't work out, and I'm sure I'd go back and change some of things that we did, but we did our best and that's all you can do.

“Our goal was always to get a horse that would transcend Sagamore, and carry that brand whether we were in it or not: to have a horse to stamp the place, like Native Dancer did. Of course I'm not saying that Global Campaign is a Native Dancer. But it would be really nice for us to point to something and say that we did that while we were there. And, gosh, he just had so much talent-and he's the reason we bred this mare to Bolt d'Oro. So, yeah, what a great story.”

Follow No One was initially purchased by Gatewood Bell for just $20,000 at the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Yearling Sale. Pinhooked through Eddie Woods, she advanced her value to $100,000 when Rankin bought her for Sagamore the following spring.

“She was petite, not small by any means, but feminine,” Rankin says. “She's kind of a dainty type. She worked okay, 21.1, but she had little things, I guess you could pick her apart. But I talked to Eddie and he said, 'I think she's a really nice filly, she's sound, she'll run through her conditions and I could maybe get some black type for you.' And that's exactly what happened, he was dead on.”

Follow No One (who was so named by skier Lindsay Vonn) did grab third in a Laurel sprint on her only black-type start, but her overall record was fairly modest and, though she was out of a stakes-winning daughter of the KatieRich foundation mare Miss Mary Apples (Clever Trick), nobody was too interested when she was consigned for sale through Upson Downs as a 4-year-old.

“It was about the time that we were transitioning out of the breeding part of things at Sagamore,” Rankin explains. “After she RNA'd, we put her in foal and my dad, who had liked her on the farm, ended up buying her privately.”

Rankin had naturally admired Bolt d'Oro as a racehorse but especially favored him as a first mate for Follow No One because of his regard for his half-brother.

“We just thought, and still think, that Global Campaign will be a great sire,” he reasons. “So we wanted to support that line, and she did fit well with him: her pedigree matched up, and their body types seemed to mesh well too. Well anyway, we got the foal-and what a nice foal he was. She's a little offset, a little this and that, but her foals have been great. And he was great. He was a lot like her: not feminine, but very similar in that [elegant] body type. He became a very good-looking yearling, very sensible and straightforward.”

Though offered deep in the Keeneland September Sale, Instant Coffee made $200,000 from Joe Hardoon as agent and duly won on debut at Saratoga. Still inexperienced when just missing the frame from off the pace behind divisional champion elect Forte (Violence) in the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, he then banked 10 Derby starting points on his successful reconnaissance of Churchill.

Incidentally, Rankin reminds us of an overlooked distinction in another Kentucky horseman that day. For the same year that he pinhooked Follow No One, Gatewood Bell also bought a rather more expensive yearling at Saratoga for Cheyenne Stables: a $750,000 daughter of Tapit who won a couple of races before being sent to Into Mischief. The resulting filly is Hoosier Philly, who romped in the GII Golden Rod S. half an hour before Instant Coffee won. Bell, it seems, was only just getting going as a bloodstock agent when he joined Keeneland as Vice-President of Racing a couple of years ago!

Rankin himself has meanwhile engaged with a stimulating new project, having topped the second session of the Keeneland January Sale when signing a $650,000 docket for the promising young filly Ancient Peace (War Front) on behalf of Boardshorts Stables. But meanwhile there's an obvious personal fulfilment available in having brought together the dam of a potential Derby horse, as a residue of his time with Sagamore, with his parents' home operation. (It's a connection, by the way, that has already been fertile in the past: at Saratoga in 2018 Upson Downs consigned Shared Account's $350,000 daughter by Speightstown for Sagamore, and she became GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Sharing.)

“I help with all their matings and I love working with my dad,” Rankin says. “He and I are very close. It was always his dream to own a horse farm, and we moved out there from town when my mom was pregnant with me. And he built it from a single mare that he bought in 1983 with [the late] Bob Courtney, who was a legend around Lexington and like a second father to my dad. Everybody loved Bob, my dad was just lucky enough to know him and learn from him, very much the same way I have been with Stan.”

That foundation mare, Flash McAllister (Ward McAllister), cost just $24,000. Her granddaughter Tar Heel Mom (Flatter) was trained by Hough to win 11 of 31 starts and $832,892 in the family silks, including three graded stakes, and it's a dynasty that has been cultivated at Upson Downs for 40 years now. For this is an enduring passion that has placed Rankin's father, in daily experience, shoulder to shoulder with the Bluegrass community-a point worth stressing in view of the occasional flak he inevitably endures in his role as Chairman of the Board at Churchill Downs Inc.

Having served a stint with CDI himself, Rankin acknowledges the heartache and contention over the sale of Arlington, in particular, but emphasizes the authentic commitment to the wider sport that he found among colleagues there. And, be all that as it may, the one guarantee is that long and ardent embrace of life at the coalface-Upson Downs foals out 50 to 60 mares every year, the majority for longstanding clients-fully preserves his father in the respect of fellow horsemen.

Rankin Sr. has built up the farm parallel to his work as chairman of Louisville insurers Sterling G. Thompson Co. “From the day they moved out there he worked every weekend, all day, and then Monday through Friday he'd wake up at 5 a.m., go out on the farm until 7.30 and then go to work,” marvels Rankin. “He has lived and breathed it for a really long time. Like when we had that big cold snap recently, and the temperature's negative five, he was still out there breaking the water tanks. He shouldn't be doing that anymore, but he does. And you hope that all that hard work pays off for him, because he's such a great guy.”

Little wonder, then, that Rankin is so gratified by the rise of Instant Coffee. He knows that the Derby still remains a long way off; but he also knows that Cyberknife (Gun Runner), after disappointing the same connections in the Lecomte last year, regrouped to confirm himself one of the best of the crop. So who can say what flavors may yet percolate through the Instant Coffee story?

Follow No One, remember, has only just turned nine. She has a juvenile filly by Frosted but sadly aborted last year before being bred to Maclean's Music. All going well with that imminent delivery, her first son's flying start is scheduled to earn her an upgrade in fee this spring to Life Is Good.

“We're excited,” Rankin says. “There's a good nucleus on the farm right now, youngish mares either with nice family or that could run a little bit. But to have this horse running for one of those mares, foaled and raised at Upson Downs, it's a dream. When he won in November, one of the girls that helped raise him was in the winner's circle crying. So it's a neat story. And just for my parents, you'd love to have a really, really good horse come off the farm. They've raised Grade I winners, for clients, but you'd love to have something that had a chance at the big one.”

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Cox Unveils Plans for 3-Year-Old Colts

For the Brad Cox stable, the road to the GI Kentucky Derby will make a stop Saturday at Oaklawn where Verifying (Justify) will run in an allowance race. It will be his first start since finishing sixth in the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Cox will also send out Judo (Street Sense), who will not be among the favorites in the race. But even if the Cox pair falters, he'll still be loaded. The trainer, whose Mandaloun (Into Mischief) was placed first in the 2021 Derby with the disqualification of Medina Spirit (Protonico), has at least eight legitimate candidates for the Derby. Here's a look at his lineup:

Verifying: A $775,000 Keeneland September purchase, he was second in the GI Champagne S. before finishing mid-pack in the Juvenile.

“Hopefully, the race Saturday will be the start of a big year for him and everything will go well for him on Saturday,” Cox said. “After this race and if everything goes well Saturday we'll look for a Triple Crown prep.”

Loggins (Ghostzapper): Though he finished second behind eventual Juvenile winner Forte (Violence) in the GI Breeders' Futurity, Loggins served notice that day that he is a horse to be reckoned with. Of the two, Forte clearly had the better trip and Loggins was fighting back at the end. Afterward, Cox decided to pass on the Juvenile and freshen the horse up for the Derby. Loggins remains at WinStar Farm, where he went after the Breeders' Futurity for some R & R, but the trainer said he should arrive back at his Fair Grounds barn shortly. Cox remains undecided when it comes to Loggins's next race.

Victory Formation (Tapwrit): In his first try around two turns, Victory Formation won the Jan. 1 one-mile Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn by three lengths. Having passed the all-important distance test, he should be ready for a tougher assignment. Cox said the colt will go next in either the GII Rebel S. or the GII Risen Star S.

Angel of Empire (Classic Empire): Finished second behind stablemate Victory Formation in the Smarty Jones. His next start will be in either the Rebel or Risen Star.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro): Was last seen winning the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. on Nov. 26 at Churchill. That he's already won around two turns and at Churchill Downs are pluses. He will run next in the GIII Lecomte S. on Jan. 21 at Fair Grounds.

“He's doing well,” Cox said. “Since his last run we've been pointing to the Lecomte and have freshened him up a bit. He's been training very well here at the Fair Grounds.”

Jace's Road (Quality Road): Is coming off a huge run in the Dec. 26 Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds, which he won by 5 1/2 lengths and under wraps. He's been working regularly since and Cox said the GIII Southwest S. will be next for him.

Giant Mischief (Into Mischief): Suffered somewhat of a setback when he couldn't win the Springboard Mile S. at Remington as the 4-5 favorite. Nonetheless, he was second and ran well enough to suggest he still belongs in the Derby picture. Cox said the Rebel will be next.

“He had three runs as a 2-year-old and ran in mid-December,” Cox said. “I feel like he'll only need two starts before the Derby. We'll find out if we can earn enough points and if he's worthy of making it into the Derby.”'

Corona Bolt (Bolt d'Oro): Is 2-for-2 and was an impressive winner of the six-furlong Sugar Bowl S., where he earned a 97 Beyer figure. Can he stretch out?

“He's a good colt,” Cox said. “We will try him in the Southwest and will prepare him at the Fair Grounds for his first run around two turns. There's always a little bit of a question whether they want to go two turns. He's a horse with a lot of speed but he's also intelligent and seems to relax and respond to what the rider wants.”

Though Cox has officially won a Derby, he admits he'd like to get another one and do so with a horse who crosses the wire first. He's optimistic that within this deep group there may be that special horse.

“It is a very good group that we have,” he said. “I felt last summer that we had a very good group of colts. I feel fortunate and am very happy with where we are. But I'm the first to admit there's a long way to go before we get to the first Saturday in May and that things have to go right.

“The Derby is why I get up and do this every day. It means a tremendous amount to me and to everyone in our stable. It means a lot to the owners and the race really helps drive this game. It's the biggest race we have in America. For me, it would be great to win it the right way and cross the wire first.”

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Derby Top 12: The Point Race Begins

The first week of January doesn't have much in common with the first Saturday in May–with the exception that the inaugural TDN Top 12 has arrived to herald the coming of the seemingly far-off GI Kentucky Derby season. Get tied on and enjoy the ride.

1) ARABIAN KNIGHT (c, Uncle Mo–Borealis Night, by Astrology)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Zedan Racing Stables, Inc.; B-Corser Thoroughbreds LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $250,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP; $2,300,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $86,025. Last start: 1st Keeneland Maiden Special Weight, Nov. 5. KY Derby Points: 0.

It wasn't too long ago that ranking a colt who has zero experience beyond the maiden ranks as your Derby kingpin in the dead of winter would have been an audacious selection. But now, in this era where a Triple Crown “foundation” often consists of just two or three sophomore prep races, heading a list with a lightly experienced contender like 'TDN Rising Star' Arabian Knight isn't all that outlandish.

This powerful son of Uncle Mo ($250,000 KEESEP; $2.3 million OBSAPR sale-topper) didn't just “debut” on the Breeders' Cup undercard–his presence in Lexington on racing's championship weekend was a well-orchestrated unveiling by trainer Bob Baffert for owner Zedan Racing Stables. Fast and fluid off the mark going seven furlongs, this bay responded to rating from John Velazquez but still drew away responsively to win by a dazzling 7 1/4 lengths (97 Beyer Speed Figure).

“We took a big chance bringing him here to run,” Baffert said post-win. “Johnny asked me, 'How Good is he?' I said, 'You ride him like you rode Uncle Mo, because I think he's Uncle Mo.' And the way he moves; he's been working with older horses-unbelievable.”

Baffert told TDN via text on Sunday he's not ready to commit to a particular comeback race and that, “We are going slow with him. No rush to run him.” But Arabian Knight is now five works into his training at Santa Anita, including a bullet six furlongs on Dec. 30, so he's got to be getting close.

For the second straight year, Churchill Downs has banished Baffert from the Derby related to his under-appeal equine drug DQ from the 2021 Derby, and his trainees are prohibited from earning qualifying points. While this issue plays out in the courts and at the racing commission level, the focus for TDN's Top 12 writeups will be on the horses and not the trainer's eligibility status.

2) FORTE (c, Violence–Queen Caroline, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable; B-South Gate Farm (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $80,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $110,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 5-4-0-0, $1,595,150. Last start: 1st GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 40.

'TDN Rising Star' Forte stamped himself as the crop-topper among up to 1 1/16 miles, and he looms as the deserving favorite for the divisional championship in the Eclipse Award voting. Two Grade I wins in his only two route attempts underscore that this son of Violence has already checked some important boxes along his development arc.

Trainer Todd Pletcher has outlined a two-prep path to Louisville that includes a sophomore debut in the Mar. 4 GII Fountain of Youth S., followed by either the GI Florida Derby or the GI Blue Grass S. This two-time auction grad ($80,000 KEENOV; $110,000 KEESEP) has proven capable of carving out fortuitous trips while negotiating large fields, largely thanks to precision far-turn targeting over short-stretch configurations at Keeneland by jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr.

Owned in partnership by Repole Stable and St. Elias Stable, Forte outmuscled a tenacious runner-up by wresting back the lead in deep stretch of the 14-horse GI Breeders' Futurity S., and in the 10-horse GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile he adeptly reeled in the odds-on favorite while encountering no serious challengers late in the lane (100 Beyer).

Forte's biggest Derby obstacle might involve bucking a daunting historical trend: Since the advent of the Breeders' Cup in 1984, Juvenile winners have accounted for only two Derby wins (Nyquist and Street Sense) from 38 runnings.

3) CAVE ROCK (c, Arrogate–Georgie's Angel, by Bellamy Road)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Michael E. Pegram, Karl Watson, and Paul Weitman; B-Anne and Ronnie Sheffer Racing LLC (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $210,000 Wlg '20 KEENOV; $550,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-3-1-0, $748,000. Last start: 2nd GI FanDuel Breeders' Cup Juvenile presented by TAA, Nov. 4. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Cave Rock, who races with his head slung low in a style reminiscent of his sire, Arrogate, has been likened to a big, powerful football fullback by trainer Bob Baffert. But despite being very mature-looking physically, this imposing dual sales grad ($210,000 KEENOV; $550,000 KEESEP) got so keyed up prior to his second-place finish as the beaten fave in the Breeders' Cup that the mental duress surely cost him some on-track energy.

Owned by Mike Pegram, Karl Watson and Paul Weitman, this two-time Grade I winner unleashed a 104 Beyer in his two-turn debut, the GI American Pharoah S., while never appearing close to being fully extended.

But it was a different story a month later in the Juvenile, when Cave Rock was committed to the lead outside of a 70-1 shot through a :22.90 opening quarter, had trouble settling, then took command about halfway home with foes nipping at his heels. Approaching the far turn, it initially looked as if Cave Rock was cresting to a high cruising speed with a short-stretch finish ahead and main rival Forte six lengths behind.

But Forte was just getting wound up while Cave Rock was feeling the effects of his toil, and although Cave Rock initially met Forte's challenge, he came unhinged under left-handed stick work while languishing too long on his left lead in the stretch. He was no match for the winner, but Cave Rock left the impression that a better-focused version of him could be capable of reversing that result.

4) TAPIT TRICE (c, Tapit–Danzatrice, by Dunkirk)
O-Whisper Hill Farm LLC and Gainesway Stable (Antony Beck); B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $1,300,000 Ylg '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-1, $56,950. Last start: 1st Aqueduct Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 17. KY Derby Points: 0.

This gray son of Tapit who hammered for $1.3 million at KEESEP was bet down to second favoritism debuting at Aqueduct Nov. 6. A bit raw at the break of a one-turn mile from the outermost post, Tapit Trice got a decent schooling tucking in behind, then splitting horses before finishing with interest and galloping out ahead of the only two horses who beat him (73 Beyer).

Owned in partnership by Whisper Hill Farm and breeder Gainesway, this Todd Pletcher trainee learned from that experience by overcoming trip adversity to score in start number two, another one-mile-try, as the 17-10 fave Dec. 17 over a sealed, muddy Aqueduct surface.

Off slowly, Tapit Trice lagged but got maneuvered to the eight path to avoid getting pelted with kickback. It took him awhile to get into gear, tagging on to the end of the first flight about a half mile from home, then commencing a field-looping bid way out in the six path. He engaged the two leaders off the bend, maintained the upper hand when enduring some brushing and bumping from the outward-shifting second fave, then nailed the win by a neck without seeming one bit fazed by the stretch fight (89 Beyer).

The effort wasn't a spectacular, blow-away victory. But Tapit Trice completed his assigned task very capably while demonstrating there is raw, Derby-quality talent beneath a still-unpolished surface.

5) BANISHING (c, Ghostzapper–Dowager, by A.P. Indy)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-1-0-0, $42,000. Last start: 1st Fair Grounds Maiden Special Weight, Dec. 26. KY Derby Points: 0.

A chestnut with a distinctively jagged blaze, this Godolphin homebred by Ghostzapper out of an A.P. Indy mare started his career Nov. 13 in a one-turn-mile MSW at Churchill, breaking from post 12 and racing in the 10 path early while cruising up to be within two lengths of the lead through a well-contested pace.

Banishing was four wide into the turn, quickened 3 ½ furlongs out, then got within a nostril of the lead just before the field hit the top of the stretch. He initially seemed to tire from that stout middle move, but sparked back to life late in the lane only to lose a photo for fourth behind a favored winner and a third-place horse who came back to win at 3-5 odds in a subsequent Gulfstream MSW.

On Dec. 26 at Fair Grounds, this Brendan Walsh trainee added Lasix, stretched out to 1 1/16 miles, and was sent off as the 2-1 chalk. Unhurried out of the gate, he established position at the rail in a three-way go and kept edging away under pressure. Banishing was headed off the final turn but immediately met that affront, throttling open late while leaving the second and third faves reeling in his 8 ½-length wake.

He earned a 90 Beyer, and his maiden-breaking final clocking of 1:44.80 was .05 seconds faster than the same-distance Gun Runner S. for more experienced juveniles later on the card.

6) LOGGINS (c, Ghostzapper–Beyond Blame, by Blame)
'TDN Rising Star'. O-Spendthrift Farm LLC, Steve Landers Racing LLC, Martin S. Schwartz, Michael Dubb, Ten Strike Racing, Jim Bakke, Titletown Racing Stables, Kueber Racing LLC, Big Easy Racing LLC, and Winners Win; B-Popatop, LLC (KY); T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $460,000 Ylg '21 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $175,500. Last start: 2nd GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, Oct. 8. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Loggins ($460,000 FTSAUG) went off favored in the “loaded” (five next-out winners) Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, and if there was such an award as the best losing effort in a juvenile stakes, his second-place try behind the No. 2-ranked Forte would have slam-dunked it for 2022.

Running back in just three weeks after a 6 ½-furlong MSW winning debut, Loggins (trained by Brad Cox and carrying the colors of Spendthrift Farm in a 10-way partnership) established strong early inside positioning amid a crush of first-turn traffic, then was content to concede the lead while covered up in third at the fence on the backstretch.

He seized the top spot 4 ½ furlongs from the wire, and although the bid initially appeared premature, Loggins confidently chugged homeward before being accosted by Forte at the head of the lane. Forte muscled in on Loggins with one furlong left, but the less-experienced Loggins gamely responded by clawing back the lead for about six jumps before Forte eked out a neck victory at the finish.

Back in October, Cox had outlined a break for Loggins that would have the colt off for about 45 days and back in his Fair Grounds barn by December. But as of Sunday, Cox told TDN via text that Loggins still “required a little extra time” away and that his return to the track would be “soon” with no specific prep race as the target.

7) FAUSTIN (c, Curlin–Hard Not to Like, by Hard Spun) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Michael L Petersen. B-DATTT Farm (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $285,000 RNA yrl '21 KEESEP; $800,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $40,200. Last start: Maiden win at Santa Anita. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Faustin, a high-energy gray whose damsire and sire (Hard Spun and Curlin), ran second and third in the 2007 Derby, achieved 'TDN Rising Star' status in his Dec. 26 debut when he cuffed around a MSW sprint crew at Santa Anita in a manner more impressive than his 2 ¾-length winning margin and 89 Beyer might suggest.

Off a beat slow, this Bob Baffert trainee for owner Michael Lund Petersen was quickly hustled into contention by jockey Ramon Vazquez, but the hole they were aiming for closed just as the field cleared the gap. Continuously kept busy, Faustin accelerated as asked while Vazquez kept shifting laterally in an effort to pick a stalking spot, twice coming off the inside and then dropping back near the fence again in his run down the backstretch and through the turn.

At the head of the homestretch, Faustin lost momentum (but just momentarily) when he twice had to be snatched off heels and switched outward to clear rivals. But once he saw daylight, this colt ($285,000 RNA KEESEP; $800,000 OBSAPR) didn't need much encouragement to kick into a willing overdrive just outside the sixteenth pole.

Faustin was digging in and appeared to be relishing the task; in this era of top prospects racing only sparingly, he has already cleared the “overcomes adversity” hurdle well ahead of most of his peers.

8) SIGNATOR (c, Tapit–Pension, by Seeking the Gold) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds, Woodford Racing, Gainesway Stable, Phipps Stable, Ken Langone, Edward Hudson, Jr. and Lane's End Racing. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds. T-Claude McGaughey III. Sales history: $1,700,000 2yo '22 OBSAPR. Lifetime Record: 2-1-1-0, $71,250. Last Start: Maiden win at BAQ Oct. 14. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

With a pedigree topped by Tapit out of a Seeking the Gold mare, Signator wasn't expected to excel sprinting in his Sept. 16 debut. But after racing a bit greenly in upper stretch, this $1.7 million OBSAPR colt made the most out of that experience by finishing with a visual flourish through the final sixteenth to gain second before galloping out with purpose past the winner.

Start number two was a muddy mile over a drying-out Aqueduct surface, and as the 3-5 favorite, Signator absorbed some bumping out of the gate, then raced with his head cocked toward the infield under a snug grab down the backstretch. Through most of the far turn, Javier Castellano kept Signator on hold near the fence behind a four-horse wall while gambling that inside passage would open up, and when it did, Signator pulsed on through like a pro, earning 'TDN Rising Star' placement in the process.

Owned by an eight-way partnership, Signator was scratched from the Nov. 6 GII Nashua S. because of a wrenched ankle that has reportedly since healed. He rejoined trainer Shug McGuaghey's Payson Park string in Florida three weeks ago and just hit the work tab on Dec. 31. His pair of relatively low 73 Beyers might be cause for pause for some Derby prognosticators, but Signator rates higher on the “how he did it” scale rather than “how fast.”

9) VICTORY FORMATION (c, Tapwrit–Smart N Soft, by Smart Strike) 'TDN Rising Star' O-Spendthrift Farm & Frank Fletcher Racing Operations. B-Gainesway Thoroughbreds Ltd. (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $100,000 wnlg '20 KEENOV; $150,000 yrl '21 FTKJUL; $340,000 2yo '22 FTMMAY. Lifetime Record: SW, 3-3-0-0, $282,285. Last Start: 1st Smarty Jones S., Jan.1 at OP. Kentucky Derby Points: 10.

Well-bet, wire-to-wire winners have now captured the ungraded (but points-awarding) Smarty Jones S. at Oaklawn in five of the past six years after the coast-to-coast score by Victory Formation ($100,00 KEENOV; $150,000 FTKJUL; $340,000 EASMAY) on Sunday.

A 3-for-3 'TDN Rising Star' owned in partnership by Spendthrift Farm and Frank Fletcher Racing Operations, this son of Tapwrit's heavy lifting on Jan. 1 consisted largely of clearing a pesky 56-1 shot while breaking from post eight.

After an up-tempo opening quarter of :23.20, Flavien Prat reeled off consecutive quarters of :24.55, :24.61 and :25.78 to coast home unopposed by three lengths at 3-5 odds in 1:38.14 for the short-stretch mile (91 Beyer).

“This horse has a great mind. He doesn't overdo it in the morning. He settles and I think the farther the better,” said trainer Brad Cox. ” He's got a lot of natural speed.”

10) LITIGATE (c, Blame–Salsa Diavola, by Mineshaft) O-Centennial Farms. B-Nursery Place & Donaldson & Broadbent (Ky). T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $370,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 1-1-0-0, $46,750. Last Start: Aqueduct Maiden win Nov. 19. Kentucky Derby Points: 0.

Litigate, a $370,000 KEESEP buy for Centennial Farms, was sent to trainer Todd Pletcher. According to DRF's Formulator, that owner/trainer partnership is a first (at least as far back as the database goes), and it got off to a good start when this nice-striding son of Blame won at first asking sprinting 6 ½ furlongs at Aqueduct Nov. 19.

Javier Castellano asked Litigate for just enough speed to attain a sweet stalking spot behind a three-way battle for the lead, then patiently took the overland route four deep through the turn. Litigate responded to several judicious cracks of the crop in upper stretch, was still third at the eighth pole, but finished up respectably under brisk hand urging to win by three-quarters of a length (76 Beyer).

Litigate will next try a first-level allowance/optional claimer Dec. 8 at Gulfstream. Every entrant in the field of eight is first-time Lasix, with none of them entered for a tag.

11) INSTANT COFFEE (c, Bolt d'Oro–Follow No One, by Uncle Mo) O-Gold Square LLC. B-Sagamore Farm (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $200,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-2-0-0, $322,815. Last Start: Won Nov. 26 GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Kentucky Derby Points: 12.

Instant Coffee (Bolt d'Oro) sprung a 14-1 upset at Saratoga in his seven-furlong debut, then was one of four next-out stakes winners to emerge from the key Breeders' Futurity S. at Keeneland, a race in which he rallied from tenth to get fourth. That effort was good enough to merit favoritism in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. Nov. 26 at Churchill.

This $200,000 KEESEP colorbearer for Gold Square, LLC, and trainer Brad Cox was slightly hesitant at the start, then kicked into a smooth stride. After going four wide into the first turn, Instant Coffee tucked into the three path to be a midpack fifth behind a slow pace down the backstraight, then was roused assertively by Luis Saez some 3 ½ furlongs from home while again four deep on the bend.

He gave up even more ground off the final turn, but doing so freed Instant Coffee from a logjam of tiring horses toward the inside, and he responded to Saez' repeated rousing with a grinding tenacity. He momentarily shied from the outward shifting of a more physically imposing rival shortly after grabbing a brief lead at the eighth pole, but only for a stride or two before leveling off with purpose to win by 1 ¼ lengths.

Instant Coffee's lack of progression based on Beyers (debut of 85, then 81 and 82) kept him from being ranked higher at this early juncture of the season.

12) JACE'S ROAD (c, Quality Road–Out Post, by Silver Deputy) 'TDN Rising Star' O-West Point Thoroughbreds & Albaugh Family Stables LLC. B-Colts Neck Stables (Ky). T-Brad Cox. Sales history: $510,000 yrl '21 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: SW & GSP, 4-2-0-1, $126,800. Last Start: Won Gun Runner S. at Fair Grounds Dec. 26. Kentucky Derby Points: 13.

'TDN Rising Star' Jace's Road, a $510,000 KEESEP son of Quality Road, got back to his winning ways in the Gun Runner S. Dec. 26 as the second betting choice after what trainer Brad Cox had described as a “meltdown” eighth-place try as the beaten fave in his previous stakes attempt.

Owned in partnership by West Point Thoroughbreds and Albaugh Family Stables, Jace's Road's Fair Grounds performance is best described as a no-nonsense wiring through moderate-tempo splits.

He got a bit of a break when the favorite stumbled at the start and was relegated to chase mode for most of the race, and the only challenger within sniffing distance of his 5 ½-length winning margin (90 Beyer) was a pick-up-the-pieces 23-1 long shot.

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