Making Claims: Nevills Defends His Eclipse Awards Ballot

In “Making Claims,” Paulick Report bloodstock editor Joe Nevills shares his opinions on the Thoroughbred industry from the breeding and sales arenas to the racing world and beyond.

It's early January, and you know what that means: Eclipse Award voters have begun sharing their ballots on social media, and no matter who they picked, outrage ensues from the folks who disagree.

I've got an Eclipse vote, and it's made public as a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters bloc of voters, so in the interest of transparency, I'll share here how I filled out my ballot, along with my reasoning for each category.

If you think I'm off-base with any of my votes, just remember these two things: First, the voting is closed, so nothing I say here can swing any undecided voters. Second, back in 2011, one intrepid voter chose Drosselmeyer as champion turf male in a campaign where his lone start on grass was a seventh-place effort. No matter how much we might disagree on who should be placed where, please understand that someone out there will go further off the deep end than any of us could imagine and cancel me out. Eclipse Award voters are an eclectic bunch.

With that out of the way, let's get down to business.

2-Year-Old Male
1. Essential Quality
2. Jackie's Warrior
3. Fire At Will

While I certainly can't fault anyone for giving Jackie's Warrior a mulligan for his fourth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, and instead focusing on his brilliant campaign up to that point, two things swung it toward Essential Quality for me.

First, when they faced off head-to-head on the biggest stage of their lives in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, Essential Quality got there first. The juvenile dirt races hold a lot of weight for me, especially in a deep field like we had this year. Second, Essential Quality had a bit more depth to his game. Where Jackie's Warrior got to the front early to do his damage, Essential Quality showed he could be a Grade 1 horse battling for the lead or coming from behind, and he did it twice beyond a mile. That professionalism gave him the edge.

2-Year-Old Female
1. Vequist
2. Dayoutoftheoffice
3. Aunt Pearl

Vequist was the only horse in the division with two Grade 1 wins, and if she was going to split the series with Dayoutoftheoffice, I'd rather have the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies in my win column than the Frizette. All due respect to Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Aunt Pearl, but the lack of depth in North America's juvenile turf platoon and its schedule compared to their dirt contemporaries makes it hard to put a turf horse on top on either of the baby divisions.

3-Year-Old Male
1. Authentic
2. Tiz the Law
3. Happy Saver

The first two were slam dunks. Authentic won the Derby and Breeders' Cup Classic, both over Tiz the Law, who would have gotten the nod if he'd have won either one of those races. There is such a wide gap to the third spot that it allowed for some creativity. Happy Saver got the call by virtue of beating older competition in the G1 Jockey Club Gold Cup.

For the record, I need you all to appreciate the level of restraint it took for me to keep my real champion 3-year-old of 2020 off the ticket: a gelding named Underscore who ran fourth in his only career start back in March, who is now working toward his second career when he's not busy receiving hugs and mints.

3-Year-Old Female
1. Swiss Skydiver
2. Shedaresthedevil
3. Harvey's Lil Goil

Pretty simple here. If a filly wins a Triple Crown race, it's going to take a mountain of evidence against her to knock her off the perch. Fortunately, Swiss Skydiver had a deep resume to justify the spot beyond her centerpiece victory, with four other graded stakes triumphs, including the G1 Alabama Stakes. Shedaresthedevil, who bested Swiss Skydiver in the Kentucky Oaks and never ran a bad one in 2020, was a clear second, completing an outstanding exacta for new Lane's End resident Daredevil.

Older Dirt Male
1. Improbable
2. Vekoma
3. Global Campaign

I'll be the first to admit that after watching Improbable lose as the favorite again and again as a 3-year-old, I never thought he'd get it together enough to become more than the occasional fluke Grade 1 winner. A year later, here I am eating my words after he became one of the few consistent pillars of an older male division that saw a lot of its potential stars struggle with injury and consistency. Improbable crisscrossed the map and beat everyone else in the division he needed to beat.

I could have shaken the bottle, pulled out a lot of other names to fill out the bottom of the ticket and felt the same about it, but consistent, strong efforts at the highest levels got Vekoma and Global Campaign there for me. In a year where practically every serious contender either got hurt or got exposed when the chips were really down, showing up to work with your lunchpail was enough.

Older Dirt Female
1. Monomoy Girl
2. Serengeti Empress
3. Valiance

In terms of margin of victory, Monomoy Girl might be the biggest runaway winner of this year's divisions. She went unbeaten in four starts this year, including her pièce de résistance in the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

Serengeti Empress was probably the best horse with the worst luck this year, just missing a couple of graded stakes wins after running with a ton of heart. Even with the near-misses, she was incredibly versatile, winning graded stakes at both the sprint and route distances. Valiance got good at the right time, and proved she belonged with a win in the G1 Spinster Stakes and a second to Monomoy Girl in the Distaff.

I struggled with what to do with Midnight Bisou. She ran huge in the Saudi Cup (and she might end up being named the winner someday if the right people decide there's enough evidence to take Maximum Security down), she looked like the Midnight Bisou we all know and love in her G2 Fleur de Lis romp, and she was unlucky to get nipped in the G1 Personal Ensign. What kept her off the ticket for me was the incomplete feeling I had when I looked at her record. She only raced three times – twice on U.S. soil – she only won once (as of the time this was published), and she didn't win a North American Grade 1. When I crossed out her name from the running lines and separated the campaign from the brand recognition behind the horse that ran it, the bid lost a lot of its luster.

Male Sprinter
1. Whitmore
2. Vekoma
3. Volatile

Not a great year for this division in terms of true standouts. Like the Older Dirt Male division, there were a lot of struggles here with form and health that made this division tough to sort out. When that happens, the Breeders' Cup gains a lot more weight, almost by default. Whitmore ran the race of his life to win the Breeders' Cup Sprint, and while his campaign had its fair share of misfires, he did enough with his supporting efforts to put him on top.

Vekoma and Volatile were both lightly raced in 2020, and I don't love that, but they both went undefeated and won their Grade 1 races with gusto. No one else, save for maybe C Z Rocket, had a case that could stack up to that.

Female Sprinter
1. Serengeti Empress
2. Bell's the One
3. Glass Slippers

First, let's address the elephant in the room: Where's Gamine?

My policy for Eclipse voting is if the glacially-paced gears of horse racing's justice system are fast enough to pop a horse for a positive drug test and disqualify them from a race, they're off my ticket regardless of what they do for the rest of their campaign. When Gamine was taken down from her Oaklawn Park optional claimer earlier this year due to a lidocaine positive, she ceased being eligible for year-end honors in my eyes.

I didn't vote for La Verdad in 2015 when she was a contender in this division after she got taken down from the G2 Honorable Miss Stakes for a clenbuterol positive. She ended up winning the Eclipse anyway by eight votes over Wavell Avenue. If I were to venture a guess, Gamine will take this trophy home by a much wider margin, regardless of what I think, but I won't be part of it.

So, that leaves us with a closely matched race between Serengeti Empress and Bell's the One. Bell's the One bested Serengeti Empress by a nose in the G1 Derby City Distaff, while Serengeti Empress nosed out her foe for second in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. If we're pretending Gamine doesn't exist, that's a draw in my eyes. Serengeti Empress had an additional Grade 1 sprint win in the Ballerina, while Bell's the One only had a Grade 3 win to counter, putting the decision to rest.

Male Turf Horse
1. Channel Maker
2. Zulu Alpha
3. Instilled Regard

Filling out the award winners in this division is often a bleak affair, given how much time North America's turf males spend beating each other up, then losing to fillies and Europeans when the lights are the brightest, but this might be the least convincing group of contenders I've seen in any division since I've had a vote.

Let's get this over with. I don't tend to put European-based horses on top unless their case is so convincing that I have no other choice, and that didn't happen this year. Channel Maker was the only horse in the division with two Grade 1 wins, Zulu Alpha won a good Grade 1 in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and never threw a clunker, and Instilled Regard's spot could have gone to a lot of different horses, but I liked his big wins more than the other contenders. Next.

Female Turf Horse
1. Rushing Fall
2. Tarnawa
3. Starship Jubilee

I've seen a lot of votes go for Tarnawa, and I wouldn't be mad if she won it, given the strength of her globetrotting campaign and her impressive win against males in the Breeders' Cup Turf. However, as I laid out, I prefer to give it to a domestic horse if at all possible, and Rushing Fall came a hard-trying neck in the Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Turf away from a perfect campaign. The only thing missing from Rushing Fall's resume is an Eclipse Award, and I think she gets it here.

Steeplechase Horse
1. Abstain
2. Abstain
3. Abstain

I've had people say I should have my Eclipse vote taken away for abstaining from the steeplechase category every year. They don't seem to realize I abstain out of respect. Nothing in my job requires me to take even a passive interest in the steeplechase races. I know none of the players, the races are often held at venues I'm not familiar with in terms of geography or esteem, and I'm not aware of the unwritten class system that can separate one Grade 1 race from another (like how winning the Kentucky Derby means more than winning the Malibu Stakes). It's an entirely different culture.

If a group of basketball writers were brought in to decide the Eclipse Awards, people would erupt, and rightfully so. It would be disrespectful to the hard work done by an entire industry to have someone outside the circle decide who among them was the best. That's why I leave the steeplechase division to the people who know what they're doing, and don't let my uninformed vote interfere with that. Someone will get a trophy whether I vote or not.

Owner
1. Godolphin
2. Klaravich Stables
3. Gary Barber

Unless a partnership is practically synonymous with each other (like Klaravich Stables and William Lawrence were for a long time), I tend to see this award as one for individuals over groups. Barring outstanding circumstances like a Triple Crown winner, I look for solid high-level success in an Outstanding Owner candidate, with enough depth to fill out the ranks. Godolphin got its Grade 1 bona fides with probable champion Essential Quality and Fair Maiden, while finishing among the nation's leaders by wins, graded wins, and earnings. I could have put Klaravich Stables or Gary Barber in the top spot and slept just as well at night, but the blue team just stood out a little more for me this year.

Breeder
1. WinStar Farm
2. Godolphin
3. Peter E. Blum Thoroughbreds

My criteria is a little more fluid in this category than others. I like to reward a small breeder if they can pull multiple major stars out of a small broodmare band, but short of that, I've got to lean on the numbers and the big wins. WinStar Farm was responsible for the top two in my champion 3-year-old female voting – Swiss Skydiver and Shedaresthedevil – who accounted for the Preakness Stakes and Kentucky Oaks respectively. None of the other major players could match that duo, and that's before we add Grade 1 winners Global Campaign and Paris Lights to the fold.

Jockey
1. Irad Ortiz Jr.
2. Joel Rosario
3. John Velazquez

Irad Ortiz hit the big double of winning some of the sport's biggest races in 2020 while also showing up to work every day to compile impressive numbers. He netted two Breeders' Cup races and the Pegasus World Cup, while also comfortably leading the nation by both wins and earnings while racing on North America's top circuits. This decision was tougher than it sounds, but if the object of the game is to win races and make money, Irad did it the best.

Apprentice Jockey
1. Alexander Crispin
2. Yarmarie Correa
3. Santos Rivera

It was a tight race between the top two. Crispin finished second in the jockey standings at the long Delaware Park meet, and third during one of Laurel Park's meets, while also picking up a win in the First State Dash Stakes at Delaware Park. Correa won the riding title at Thistledown's long meet and is currently holding strong in the standings at Mahoning Valley Race Course. As much as I love the Midwest, the Mid-Atlantic circuit is deeper water, and the stakes win helped put Crispin on top.

Unrelated, since it was in an Arabian race and doesn't count in the Eclipse voting, but Crispin was also responsible for one of the best rides I've seen all year, both in the skill of the thing and the caliber of the horses he beat to do it. Remember what I said about different cultures in horse racing? Trust me when I tell you how big of an effort this was in the scope of Arabian racing.

Trainer
1. Brad Cox
2. Chad Brown
3. Steve Asmussen

Brad Cox won four Breeders' Cup races, including two of the biggest prizes: the Distaff and the Juvenile. He also took home the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks, La Troienne, and Breeders' Futurity, and he was near the top of the list in just about any meaningful category out there. Chad Brown had a ton of Grade 1 success, but a general lack of variety beyond turf races in those wins and a quiet Breeders' Cup put him in the place position. Steve Asmussen's giant barn put up its usual bulk numbers, and he had several Grade 1 trophies to fill it out at the top.

Horse of the Year
1. Authentic
2. Improbable
3. Monomoy Girl

If Authentic won the Breeders' Cup Classic, he was going to be Horse of the Year. If Improbable had won the Classic instead of running second to Authentic, he would have been Horse of the Year. If they both flopped and an upset winner took it, it would be hard to put a horse with just four starts on top, but Monomoy Girl would have certainly been a big one in that discussion.

As it stands, Authentic got hot at the right time when the Kentucky Derby was still going to be in May, he stayed hot over the summer when the Derby moved to September, and he blossomed into a star when it mattered most late in his campaign. Looking at the whole of the season for anyone with a serious bid at the title, nobody else made sense in the top spot.

The post Making Claims: Nevills Defends His Eclipse Awards Ballot appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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Stallion-Making Potential For Improbable and Promises Fulfilled

When considering stallion potential, brilliance and precocity are rarely left out of the equation. But a unique find emerges when a headlining juvenile can carry out his talent as a sophomore and even as an older horse before beginning his stud career.

Two of WinStar Farm’s new recruits for 2021, Improbable (City Zip) and Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), showed brilliance early on in their careers as flashy debut winners before each went on to become stakes winners at three and four.

We spoke with WinStar’s David Hanley on the pair of Grade I-winning additions.

Improbable (City Zip), $40,000

“The thing that was so impressive about this horse was his soundness,” Hanley said of four-time Grade I winner and Eclipse candidate Improbable. “From when he went to Bob Baffert as a 2-year-old, he never missed a day, never had an issue. He was so consistent. Every week you asked how he worked and Bob’s response was, ‘awesome.'”

In his 15 career starts over three years, Improbable ran in the money in all but four.

“I think that soundness is really important for his future as a sire because in the world we live in today, soundness is such a factor,” Hanley said. “This horse with his mechanics, the way he moved and how sound he was, if he passes that on to his progeny, it gives him a great shot to have a lot of runners.”

A $200,000 Keeneland September purchase, Improbable was a debut winner for the same owner-trainer connections that campaigned another speedy chestnut in Triple Crown winner Justify (Scat Daddy). He followed up with a 7 1/4-length victory in the Street Sense S. on the 2018 Breeders’ Cup undercard while earning a ‘TDN Rising Star’ nod.

He wrapped up his 2-year-old season with a win in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity, defeating eventual Grade I-winning stablemate Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) by five lengths.

“He ran that race in the fastest time of the previous 10 years,” Hanley noted. “He really was a top-class 2-year-old and always showed that. From when we broke him in the spring, he just had it together.”

From there, Improbable ran second in the GII Rebel S. and again in the GI Arkansas Derby behind Omaha Beach (War Front).

He finished fourth in the GI Kentucky Derby, and although he registered a victory in the Shared Belief S. at Del Mar’s summer meet, the chestnut couldn’t land a graded stakes win in the later half of his 3-year-old year.

“I think after going through the Derby, he got a little bit frazzled and kind of lost his way a bit through the rest of his 3-year-old season,” Hanley admitted. “He got very fired up in the gate and was running his races very hard on the bridle and not settling. But then as a 4-year-old when he got back to Bob in the spring, suddenly he was working a bit more relaxed. He was working unbelievably and showed it on the racetrack when he won three straight Grade I races with 105, 106 and 108 Beyers.”

Hanley notes Improbable’s 4 1/2-length win over barnmate and champion Maximum Security (New Year’s Day) in the GI Awesome Again S. as his strongest race of the Grade I trio.

“When Drayden Van Dyke took hold of him and he got on the bridle and let him run, he just exploded. I think that was a really super impressive performance.”

Equally as memorable was his two-length victory in last summer’s GI Whitney S.

“He was always in control of that race,” Hanley said. “He traveled easily just off the pace and when Irad [Ortiz] took the lead, he just drove off from there.”

While Improbable ran second behind Authentic (Into Mischief) in his final career start in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, he earned a 108 Beyer and a 2 Ragozin, the fastest of the race, while traveling over six lengths farther than the winner.

Improbable retired with earnings of over $2.7 million as the leading earner for his sire City Zip, who passed away when Improbable was a yearling.

“City Zip was a wonderful sire,” Hanley said. “He sired 72 stakes winners, six champions, and was a wonderful racehorse himself. So I think that’s a sire line that’s going to produce some good stallions.”

Improbable is a son of the winning A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, whose stakes-winning dam Our Rite of Spring (Stavinsky) is a half-sister to Grade I winner and sire Hard Spun (Danzig).

“City Zip was by Carson City, who was out of a Blushing Groom mare. Interestingly, Our Rite of Spring is by Stravinsky, who is also out of a Blushing Groom mare. So I think that’s huge sire-making pedigree potential,” Hanley said.

With other top sires in Awesome Again, Giant’s Causeway and Candy Ride (Arg) hailing from the Blushing Groom line on their damside, Hanley said he believes with Blushing Groom on both Improbable’s top and bottom side, his pedigree shows a unqiue potential.

“He’s also out of a really deep Darby Dan family,” he added. “He comes from one of their great foundation mares Banquet Bell, who herself was the dam of a Kentucky Derby and Belmont S. winner and a champion.”

Already booked to 160 mares for this season, Improbable has been popular with the breeders.

“He is what I would consider a medium-sized horse,” Hanley said. “He’s tremendously well made. He’s got great length from his hip to his hock and great leverage behind. He really hits the ground, as Drayden Van Dyke said, ‘like a cloud.'”

From the beginning, Hanley says, Improbable’s most noticeable quality was his exceptional movement–an asset that has proven to be useful in attracting a strong book of mares for his initial season at stud.

“From the first few times we worked him on the farm as a

2-year-old, he would breeze a quarter and then just gallop around the track like there was no end to him,” Hanley said. “He had great motion and everything came easy to him. As Bob Baffert said, he’s one of the prettiest-moving horses you could ever see and I think that’s something that’s going to stand him in good stead if he can produce that in his foals.”

Promises Fulfilled (Shackleford), $10,000

“I think his trademark was how genuine he was,” Hanley said of five-time graded stakes winner Promises Fulfilled. “He would go as fast as he could and when the other horses would come to him, he would bear down and give everything he had. He would drop down and stick his head out and give his all every time.”

Recruited and trained by Dale Romans for Robert Baron, Promises Fulfilled was a four-length debut winner at two before taking an allowance at Keeneland and running third in the GII Kentucky Jockey Club S. to wrap up his juvenile season.

He continued on the Derby trail at three with a victory in the GII Fountain of Youth S., breaking first and never giving up the lead to defeat Strike Power (Speightstown) and champion Good Magic (Curlin) by 2 1/4 lengths.

The speedy chestnut broke on top in his next two starts, clocking a :45.77 half mile going head-to-head with Justify (Scat Daddy) in the GI Kentucky Derby, but failed to stay on to finish in the money.

 

He realized his full potential after turning back in distance in the later half of his 3-year-old season with consecutive wins in the GIII Amsterdam S., GI H. Allen Jerkens S. and GII Phoenix S.

“It was quite an amazing performance to go through what he did in the spring trying to stretch out and then come back and be as competitive as he was,” Hanley said. “That was the period of time when we started to think he was a really serious horse.”

A win the following summer in the GII John Nerud S. with a career-high 108 Beyer sealed the deal, and WinStar bought in on the millionaire earner soon after.

“He was very fast out of the gates, always on pace and really let himself down in his races to finish up strong,” Hanley said. “He ran six sub-:44.4 times in graded races.”

After a layoff following his 4-year-old season, an issue days before his next start kept Promises Fulfilled from racing on at five in 2020.

“It was kind of unfortunate because he was a year from running when he went to stud, so people are quick to forget just how good of a 3-year-old he was,” Hanley said. “But we’re really excited about him because we think he was a horse with a lot of speed and ability.”

Promises Fulfilled retired with earnings of nearly $1.5 million and ran in the money in 10 of his 17 career starts.

“One thing that I think marks this horse’s character is that fact that he was able to go through the Kentucky Derby preps, run in the Kentucky Derby and then come back and win a Grade I going seven furlongs. It speaks to the character and quality of horse that he was.”

Hanley noted that breeders have been surprised that the sprinter’s physical reflects more of a two-turn type mold.

“He’s quite a big horse, with a lot of leg under him and a lot of stretch to him,” he said. “So it’s interesting that he was as fast as he was. We’re really excited to see what kind of foals he’ll produce because with his pedigree, speed and physique, he’s capable of getting two-turn horses that have some speed.”

The son of Shackleford is out of the Marquetry mare Marquee Delivery, who herself is Grade III placed but is also the dam of three additional black-type horses. Promises Fulfilled’s half-sister Marquee Miss (Cowboy Cal) was a five-time stakes winner.

“Shackleford was by Forestry (Storm Cat), so it’s a speed sire line,” Hanley said. “Shackleford himself was out of the mare Oatsee, who is by Unbridled. So you can see where Shackleford got his leg and size, and where Promises Fulfilled got it as well.”

He continued, “I think he’ll put a bit of size and stretch into his mares. He could fit anything. He was such a fast horse, and he did win going a mile and a sixteenth and looks like a two-turn horse, so anything is possible.”

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Value Sires for 2021, Part I: New KY Sires

Welcome to our annual survey of covering options in Kentucky for the forthcoming breeding season. As usual, we’ll start with the rookies and work our way through the preceding intakes, before trying to eke out some value among the more established stallions.

A wholly subjective exercise, clearly–so apologies if your fellow doesn’t make our “value podium.” Every farm is understandably sensitive about the reputation of its stallions, for whom opportunity can be so fleeting and about whom fashions can swell or fade on the flimsiest grounds. We’ll do our best to be fair, and polite. It’s all guesswork at this stage, after all, educated or otherwise. And, in the end, individual breeders will decide for themselves what they feel to be right for their own mares.

The choices they might make in an ideal world, after all, are often very different from what may feel necessary in the real one. Very likely, the priority is making sure you get paid enough for your yearling not just to clear fee and keep, but to retrieve something on what you once gave for the mare herself; and still have a little left over to keep the lights on.

Perhaps it’s only from the luxury of this pulpit that I might try to do something dumb like breed a racehorse. Naïve as it may be, however, I do persist in the belief that there should eventually be nothing more commercial, when you’re trying to make a mare or build a family, than to get some winners on the page. Since this time last year, of course, the market has absorbed some frightening shocks. Arguably this is precisely the time, with the fast bucks slowing down, to take a somewhat longer view on your mare. But the whole concept of “value” can encompass a spectrum of strategies, and I’ll do my best to acknowledge that.

In response to the crisis, the farms have certainly done their bit. With the international market showing welcome signs of resilience, and vaccinations on the horizon, generous fee cuts have given breeders every incentive to keep the faith. This, remember, is a community that needs patience and perspective at the best of times. Your 2021 cover typically won’t have a bottom line until you get to the 2023 yearling sales, and it would be nice to think the economy might have spluttered back into growth by then.

Improbable | Jon Siegel

All that said, to me it looks as though the scythe has been restored to its hook for the sires we feature today. Measured against a market so full of temptingly reduced fees, the newcomers as a class look brutally expensive. But you can’t blame the farm accountants, the commercial market’s infatuation with unproven sires having in recent years become ever more compressed–to the point that selling nominations has often become uphill work even for stallions entering only their second year.

I have banged this drum too often to weary you by reprising the argument here. Suffice to say that the majority of those we examine today start at a fee that will simply keep dwindling, to the point that many will pack their bags for an overseas or regional program; and even the few that do eventually achieve viable careers in Kentucky will typically have to ride out a dip first.

Nonetheless there will be value lurking among them. Most obviously because it’s a question of demand, rather than supply: their fees may never again be so high, nor will their stock ever enjoy the same premium at the sales ring. Each crop, moreover, will have its Not This Time.

The son of Giant’s Causeway was “gold” on our podium when introduced at $15,000 (and remained so when clipped to $12,500 last year). Anyone charitable enough to ascribe that oil-strike to judgement, rather than luck, hopefully won’t be expecting something similar every time. And we’ll have to decide, when revisiting his intake, whether Not This Time can retain a step on that podium at $40,000!

Nowadays, moreover, new stallions can offer extra value when so many farms incentivize even a little perseverance by, for instance, offering lifetime rights for repeat breeders.

One of the most significant recent developments in the stallion market is the way that the pioneer of such schemes, B. Wayne Hughes, is upgrading the caliber of animal to which they apply. Into Mischief himself having started out as a blue-collar experiment, Hughes is now welcoming a succession of authentic Classic types to Spendthrift with the potential to revive the heyday of Nashua, Raise a Native and Seattle Slew.

McKinzie | Benoit

Last year the first, second and joint-third highest fees among the new stallions were all charged at Spendthrift. This time round, rival farms have looked to their laurels but Hughes again stands top of the heap with much the most expensive of the intake, at $75,000–a son, of course, of his remarkable champion sire.

Spendthrift had been quick to double down on Into Mischief, hosting his first-crop star Goldencents as a cheaper alternative to a sire whose fee would soon climb beyond the reach of most. And the success of AUTHENTIC (Into Mischief–Flawless, by Mr. Greeley) in the postponed GI Kentucky Derby has broken priceless new ground for the farm flagship. For here is immediate evidence that the amelioration of Into Mischief’s books as his fee went up–still $45,000 when Authentic was conceived–would enable him to stretch his trademark speed and become a legitimate Classic sire.

Authentic is the only black-type winner under his first two dams but that doesn’t tell a fraction of the story. His unraced granddam (whose half-sister produced the dam of two Grade I winners) died after delivering just three foals, one of which was a 13-length winner on debut, only to bow a tendon on her next start. That was Flawless, and Authentic is only her third starter. The next two dams were both graded stakes winners, but what I really like about Authentic’s page is a ghostly pattern of Ruffian: her half-brother Icecapade recurs top and bottom, while her sire Reviewer gave us the dam of Mr. Greeley.

Yes, they were handing out track records like bobble hats at the Breeders’ Cup; and maybe maturing sophomores would clock 2:00.61 in the Derby more often if they ran it in September every year. But there’s no gainsaying Authentic’s effortless speed. His class-high speed figures were founded on a wonderfully fleet action, which made him look something special even when still a gawky beginner in the GIII Sham S. His gate-to-wire dash guarantees Authentic commercial traction and, as a leggier and stretchier model, the right mares will entitle him to continue dad’s work round that second turn.

Game Winner | Alys Emson

Would I trade two foals by Omaha Beach for one by his new barnmate? Nope. But that’s just a personal take on the most expensive stallion of the last intake, whose revised price we will visit in the next instalment of this series. We know that Authentic will make his fee function, at least through his first cycle, because he’s the most accomplished son of a freakish stallion now standing at $225,000. And nobody, such is the nature of the business today, will be looking past that initial phase for now.

Just as was the case in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic, Authentic’s closest pursuer in terms of fees is IMPROBABLE (City Zip–Rare Event, by A.P. Indy) at $40,000. He matured into a most accomplished older horse, with a Grade I hat trick, but WinStar will doubtless be emphasizing what a very smart juvenile he was, too: spectacular on the Breeders’ Cup undercard, he then beat Mucho Gusto (Mucho Macho Man) by five in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity. Though a creditable fifth past the post in the Derby, he looked closer to the finished article in his third campaign.

Certainly it would be gratifying to see another son assist Collected in carrying the torch for City Zip, a set-your-clock force for good in his stock. And Improbable’s granddam is a half-sister to none other than Hard Spun, just one decoration to a bottom line extending to the Darby Dan foundation mare Banquet Bell (Polynesian), i.e. the family of Little Current (Sea-Bird {Fr}) and company.

Improbable has always been a slick mover, and that completes a pretty comprehensive package: pedigree, class, toughness, balance. No less than we should expect, at this kind of money–but he is at a farm, like Authentic, that will secure him numbers and then it will be over to him.

War of Will | Maryland Jockey Club

Next off the grid, at $30,000, extends Bob Baffert’s influence on this intake into a third crop. MCKINZIE (Street Sense–Runway Model, by Petionville) goes to Gainesway with a similar profile to Improbable, as a GI Los Alamitos Futurity winner (albeit in the stewards’ room) who really confirmed his standing at four, similarly winning the GI Whitney S. and placing in the GI Breeders’ Cup Classic. Persevering this year did not really pay off as it deserved, but at least he reiterated his versatility by adding a Grade II success at seven furlongs to his earlier GI Malibu S. score at that trip.

Bottom line is that he’s a Grade I winner at two, three and four, with 11 triple-digit Beyers to his name. That’s the kind of mettle the breed could do with, nowadays, and perhaps traces to a family seeded with some pretty left-field influences: he combines two Mr. Prospector sire lines but his first three dams are by Petionville, Houston and Navajo. This kind of stuff can be pretty invigorating, as one glance at American Pharoah’s family tree will confirm. So while McKinzie is the only Grade I winner out of a Petionville mare, it has all stacked up somehow: his dam, a very smart runner in her own right, has three half-sisters who have also produced a graded stakes winner.

So we’re plainly looking at some kind of genetic vigour, as well as vigour on the track, and don’t let his admirable durability deceive you that McKinzie’s stock will need time. His dam made 10 juvenile starts, sandwiching her third in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies with two Grade II wins; and the next dam won four times at two, including a couple of Listed prizes.

Starting on the same peg at Lane’s End is GAME WINNER (Candy Ride {Arg}–Indyan Giving, by A.P. Indy), who completes Baffert’s lock on the top four. You have to feel sympathy for connections, who felt there was more to come after he derailed halfway through his sophomore campaign but never got him back on track. But if breeders have to dust off his juvenile championship, they will find it a worthwhile exercise–reminding them how he reeled off three Grade Is after winning on debut, culminating in a decisive defeat of Knicks Go (Paynter) in the GI Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Maximum Security | Horsephotos

He trained on well, too, running the race-fit Omaha Beach (War Front) to a nose on his resumption, while sixth home in the Kentucky Derby was a respectable effort after a messy trip.

A pedigree that superficially hurries through the generations soon repays closer attention. His first three dams have produced just 10 foals between them, through sundry misfortunes, and Game Winner’s only sibling to have started is Grade II winner Flagstaff (Speightstown); while his granddam is champion Fleet Indian (Indian Charlie), who counted two Grade Is among 13 wins from 19 starts. And you can’t complain about the compression of a pedigree that ends up taking you through the Striking branch of La Troienne’s line.

Genes certainly support a fee of $25,000 for WAR OF WILL (War Front–Visions Of Clarity {Ire}, by Sadler’s Wells) at Claiborne.

For a start, he foreshortens access to the two premier branches of the Northern Dancer dynasty in a fashion that is rare today: he’s a grandson of Danzig out of a Sadler’s Wells mare. And what a family that mare represents. His fifth dam is the matriarch Best In Show; closer up, he’s a half-brother to a Group 1-winning juvenile; and their stakes-winning dam is a half-sister to the brilliant miler Spinning World (Nureyev) out of a Group 1-placed half-sister to Chimes of Freedom (Private Account), herself an elite operator and dam of two others in Aldebaran (Mr. Prospector) and Good Journey (Nureyev).

War of Will parlayed this glittering international page into Classic success on dirt plus a Grade I success when switched back to grass for his third season. With his sire rising 19, the chance is there for War of Will to establish himself as a transatlantic influence, obviously at a more accessible fee. He certainly looks the part.

It was War of Will, notoriously, who took the nudge that cost MAXIMUM SECURITY (New Year’s Day–Lil Indy, by Anasheed) the Kentucky Derby. Little could we realise how even the furore over his disqualification would be surpassed by the far graver infringements subsequently alleged about his trainer. One way or another, he could never quite confine headlines to what was plainly a pretty freakish talent: by renouncing the GI Preakness for a 1-20 defeat, for instance, and then when diverted from the Breeders’ Cup by colic. Nor did he build conclusively on what was, in the circumstances, an important Grade I for his new trainer this year. But the bottom line is 10 wins in 14 starts for a rating of 122, and the hapless victim of so much controversy now gets the chance to create a fresh legacy of his own, starting out at Ashford off $20,000.

Vekoma | Sarah Andrew

Maximum Security is another whose first couple of dams introduce pretty exotic names, in Anasheed and Cresta Rider. But a third dam by Double Jay–who was foaled in 1944!–is a throwback I love: he was a fantastic broodmare sire. Anyhow we’ve already remarked how variegation of this kind is no bar to success, and his dam is a three-parts sister to a very hardy multiple Grade I winner in Flat Out (Flatter). Relative to Maximum Security’s accomplishments, the fee takes full account of the fact that he has been a bundle of surprises throughout, for better or worse; and he will reliably be given every chance to write a redemptive final chapter. Put it this way, he has more obvious credentials to make his fee work than when carrying a lesser claiming tag on his debut!

Also launched at $20,000 is VEKOMA (Candy Ride {Arg}–Mona de Momma, by Speightstown) at Spendthrift. He, too, always carried an air of unconventionality–in his case, that highly idiosyncratic action. But there was no arguing with its efficiency, and it is a real shame that he was consecutively derailed just as he was confirming his class both at three and four. At least he went out on a high, in the stallion-making GI Met Mile.

An unbeaten GIII Nashua S. winner at two, he won the GII Blue Grass S. decisively only to disappear for 11 months after his Derby disappointment. On his return he looked much closer to the finished article: after a stylish comeback, he was plainly at home in the slop when romping in the GI Carter H., but no such qualifications were required when he sealed his status as one of the most lavishly talented animals around in what turned out to be his swan song, just a click off the track record.

Though confined to eight starts across three seasons, Vekoma fully established his class and versatility, with Grade I wins at seven, eight and nine furlongs. There’s no mystery as to where it comes from, either. He owed his efficacy in the slop to a dam who won her Grade I in similar conditions, but a more important inheritance was her sisterhood to Mr. Greeley (Gone West) and to the second dams of Street Sense (Street Cry {Ire}) and Paradise Woods (Union Rags). Moreover Vekoma’s fourth dam is Lianga (Dancer’s Image), whose elite scores in Europe were similarly both in sprints and at a mile. She is also the third dam of Coolmore’s rags-to-riches sire Danehill Dancer (Ire).

Volatile | Sarah Andrew

Sadly Vekoma’s dam, lost the year she delivered him, won’t be decorating the page further; but the credentials of Candy Ride as a sire of sires grow all the time. This must be his fastest son to stud, moreover, with the precocity to clock a 97 Beyer in the Nashua. Assuming he doesn’t reproduce that quirky gait, Vekoma can make the grade.

Another offering ‘V’ for velocity is VOLATILE (Violence–Melody Lady, by Unbridled’s Song), launched by Three Chimneys at $17,500. It would have been mouthwatering to see the pair of them square up in top form for a race like the GI Forego. Unfortunately Volatile was likewise unable to see things through, confined to three starts as a sophomore and another three this year. But these latter confirmed his blossoming as an authentic speedball: dazzling on his return, he then detonated a 1:07.57 romp in the Aristides S., missing the track record by a sliver; and put a formal Grade I seal on his resumé at Saratoga.

Admittedly he was allowed to tee up his wild closing fractions that day, having controlled the early pace against just three rivals. But an $850,000 yearling tag tells you all you need to know about his looks, as the most expensive son of his flourishing sire; and his second dam is Lady Tak (Mutakddim), a dual Grade I winner over seven at Saratoga–and whose own granddam Dangerous Star (Dark Star) was one the 10 foals of the remarkable Dangerous Dame. Of these, eight mustered a grand total of three starts between them; the other two, however, were the elite winners and producers Hidden Talent and Heavenly Body, both also by Dark Star. This is a family fertile in classy horses on both sides of the Atlantic.

Though himself held up by a setback at two, Volatile’s full-sister as a juvenile became their sire’s first stakes winner as early as May. So breeders can hope to match commercial speed with corresponding precocity. If that happens, Volatile looks highly eligible to achieve the momentum so critical to a young sire in the freshmen’s table.

With so many new sires in the Kentucky marketplace for 2021, stay tuned as we continue to cover more than a dozen others in tomorrow’s instalment.

 

The post Value Sires for 2021, Part I: New KY Sires appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Baffert-Trained 2-Year-Olds Rate Most Attention In Weekend Stakes At Del Mar

Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert is scheduled to send out 9-5 morning line favorite Private Mission and two other 2-year-old fillies in a field of eight for Saturday's $100,000 Desi Arnaz Stakes and 6-5 favorite Spielberg to face five 2-year-old male rivals in Sunday's Grade III, $100,000 Bob Hope this weekend at Del Mar.

Baffert increased his Breeders' Cup victory total to 17 last Saturday with the wins by Gamine in the $1 million Filly & Mare Sprint and the 1-2 finish of Authentic and Improbable in the $6 million Classic at Keeneland. He then spent a day or two saying good bye to Authentic, Improbable and Pacific Classic winner Maximum Security – fifth in the Breeders' Cup Classic – as they went off to Lexington, KY., area farms where they'll stand stud.

Authentic went to Spendthrift, Improbable to Winstar and Maximum Security to Ashford Stud.

Three's a crowd, even for Baffert, but seeing horses of great accomplishment off to second careers is a part of racing's annual cycle.

“You don't want to see them go, but we have more good horses around. I have great clients (who provide),” Baffert said this morning from Santa Anita. “You can't think about the past too much, you look ahead.”

Baffert has older horses like Mucho Gusto and Roadster to look forward to campaigning in 2021 and it will be no surprise to anyone who has followed racing to any degree recently if a heretofore unknown soon-to-be 3-year-old emerges from the shedrow as a major Kentucky Derby contender. (Especially if the Derby is held on the first Saturday in May again).

Of immediate concern to Baffert, however, are the upcoming stakes here. Having returned from Kentucky and undergone 72 hours of isolation before returning to work at Santa Anita, he'll be making his first Crosby season appearance here on Saturday.

In addition to Private Mission, an Into Mischief filly, Baffert has Varda (6-1) and Heels Up (8-1) to look after in the Desi Arnaz. Private Mission and Varda were both $750,000 auction purchases. Heels Up sold for $350,000.

“They're all winners, and it's not easy to win races out here,” Baffert said. “They're all training well, but it could be a tough race. Looks like Richard Mandella (Astute, 3-1) and John Sadler (Queengol, 4-1) have some good ones in there.”

Speilberg, a $1 million purchase a year ago, will be coming back two weeks after breaking his maiden in his fourth career start – two of them against Grade I competition. Baffert has saddled the winner four times in six runnings of the Hope, the initial graded stakes of the Crosby meeting. Spielberg, a son of Union Rags, will be shortened to seven furlongs and put on the same course where he finished second, 1 ¾ lengths behind Dr. Schivel, in the Del Mar Futurity on September 7.

“He came out of the last one very well and the seven-eighths should be OK for him,” Baffert said. “And he runs well at Del Mar.”

Spielberg has the maiden win and two runner-up finishes last summer on his record here.

The field from the rail for Saturday's Desi Arnaz: Plum Sexy (Heriberto Figueroa, 12-1); Private Mission (Drayden Van Dyke); Canoodling (Umberto Rispoli, 12-1); Varda (Abel Cedillo); Queengol (Juan Hernandez); Miss Costa Rica (Flavien Prat, 10-1); Astute (Mike Smith), and Heels Up (Victor Espinoza).

The field from the rail for Sunday's Bob Hope: Ambivalent (Mario Gutierrez, 7-2); Spielberg (Cedillo, 6-5); Weston (Van Dyke, 3-1); Coastal Kid (Tyler Baze, 15-1); Red Flag (Espinoza, 6-1), and Uncle Boogie (Prat, 5-1).

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