improbable | Horse Racing Free Tips

OBS Spring Kicks off Busy Under-Tack Week

The Ocala Breeders' Sales Company launched an action-packed week of under-tack shows ahead of its Spring 2-year-olds in Training Sale, which will run from Apr. 16 through Apr. 19.

A total of eight juveniles–half fillies and half colts–led the way Sunday morning with joint :9 4/5 moves. WinStar's freshman sire Improbable was the only sire to be represented by a pair of session-topping workers–Hip 131, a colt out of I Know That Mom (Distorted Humor) (S G V Thoroughbreds LLC), and Hip 133, a colt out of MSW and MGSP I'm Betty G (Into Mischief) (Wavertree Stables). Also among the fastest eighth-working colts Sunday was Hip 87, a Florida-bred colt by Neolithic out of Harbor Sunset (Fast Anna) (Grassroots Training & Sales LLC), in addition to a Florida-bred son of Army Mule, Hip 108, out of GSP Hermione's Magic (Forest Wildcat) (Envision Equine, Agent).

Leading the fillies Sunday were Hip 28, a daughter of Gun Runner out of Forest Valentine (Forestry) (de Meric Sales, Agent VIII) ; Hip 32, a Florida-bred by Girvin out of Foxy Mischief (Into Mischief) (Six K's Training & Sales LLC, Agent VI) and Hip 102, a Kentucky-bred daughter of Authentic out of GSP Heavenly Hill (City Zip) (Grassroots Training & Sales LLC).

The connections of Hip 173 (Grade I Investments) hope that lightening can strike twice for Florida's freshman sire Win Win Win, who had a filly bring $1.8 million to top the final session of the OBS March sale. Out of Lookin At Lucky's Jilly, the Sunshine State-bred filly is from the family of Grade I winners Roman Ruler and El Corredor.

A pair of juveniles posted a session-heading :20.3 quarter miles Sunday. Hip 166 (Tom McCrocklin), a filly by Uncle Mo, recorded the day's co-fastest time at the distance. A half-sister to GISP Be You (Curlin), the May 16 foal is out of Jacaranda (Congrats), herself a half-sister to Group 2 scorer Boynton (More Than Ready), in addition to dual Grade I winning sire Constitution. A colt by freshman sire Mr. Money (Hip 9) equaled the day's fastest time for Omar Ramirez Bloodstock. The Florida-bred is out of Fast City (Half Ours).

Sessions begin each day at 8 a.m. The breeze schedule for the remaining days are–hips 174-345 on Monday; hips 346-518 on Tuesday, hips 519-690 on Wednesday; hips 691-863 on Thursday; hips 864- 1035 on Friday; and hips 1036-1208 on Saturday.

The post OBS Spring Kicks off Busy Under-Tack Week appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

Who Will Be This Year’s Leading Freshman Sire? We’ve Asked the Experts

It's that time again. The first major 2-year-old sale, the March OBS sale, is in the books and the buyers, sellers and bloodstock agents have had their chance to evaluate this year's freshman sires. So who do they like? We asked the experts listed below to give us their pick for leading freshman sire and an under-the-radar stallion they expect will have a big 2024.

Liz Crow: “I really liked the Improbables at the OBS March breeze show. It's very sad that he passed away. I thought he had, overall, the most impressive breeze show. That doesn't always indicate who's going to be the leading freshman sire, but I have found in the past that it's a good model that tells you the horse is going in the right direction and that they have some 2-year-old speed. Overall, I was very impressed with his horses. Volatile is my sleeper pick. He had, overall, a good breeze show as well. And he bred a lot of mares, something around 180. I landed on quite a few of them that had nice works and he was speedy himself and, being by Violence, comes from a good line of 2 year olds. With the number of mares he had and with the solid breeze show he had I rank him high on the list.”

Phil Hager: “In terms of the quality that I've seen so far it's a toss-up between Authentic and McKinzie. A lot of the Authentics I have seen look really nice. Some look like they could be early, but a lot of them look like horses that can go on and go two turns. The McKinzies look like they might develop a little later in the year, but they seem to have a lot of quality. Both were well supported and will go to a lot of good trainers. My sleeper is Caracaro. That horse could run. I used to work at Crestwood, so I knew the horse's story. He had quite a few that worked really well at the March sale. I don't know if that was a surprise, but they were consistent.”

Mike McMahon: “McKinzie is my pick. I've owned three or four already. Not only were they in demand at the sales but they were all good looking horses. I haven't had a bad one yet. The one we bought to go racing with, if all is right, he will be pretty exceptional. I feel like I have a good group of McKinzies and have a good feel for them. His 2 year olds breezed just as well as they were supposed to. My sleeper is Vekoma. It's a tough choice because I like several stallions that stand for $10,000 or less and are real bargains. Vekoma has the speed to be a sire, the sire line and the pedigree. I've loved the ones we have been around.”

Jon Green: “I was most impressed with the Improbables. His passing is unfortunate. He had a couple of horses who were on our short list for the 2-year-old sale and last year we saw 10 to 12 of his yearlings that we liked at the yearling sales. I think he will be an outstanding freshman sire. The sleeper is Tom's d'Etat. We bought two of his yearlings and I got outbid on one at the March sale. He won't be a juvenile stallion that throws precocious 2 year olds. Just like him, as they get older. I think you'll see them hitting the winner's circle in graded stakes.They will get better with age.”

Connor Foley: Based on what I saw at the OBS sale, my pick for leading freshman sire would be Tiz the Law. They breezed well enough as a group and I thought they all had a lot of race-horse characteristics to them. Horses can breeze fast, but you still have to ask yourself the question, are they going to go on to be good race horses? They had that look to me. For my sleeper pick, I was impressed by the horses by Thousand Words.”

Zoe Cadman: “Volatile is my pick for leading freshman sire. Like last year's freshman sire Mitole, Volatile was also brilliantly fast and trained by one of the masters of the game in Steve Asmussen. How he ever paid $20 to win on debut is just beyond me. He was brilliantly fast and being out of an Unbridled's Song mare I see no reason why his babies won't go two turns . They made a great showing at the recently concluded OBS 2-year-old sales showing not only class, which is so important, but also some stretch and athleticism. Marette Farrell, who I work closely with at the sales, scooped one up out of the Lothenbach dispersal who we absolutely love. My under-the-radar pick was going to be Vekoma. But his 2-year-olds are no longer a secret. The were incredibly well received at both the yearling sales and at OBS March. The Farrell team bid on and secured several. So, I'm going with Complexity who stands for $12,500 at Airdrie stud, as my sleeper. He has it all. He was a Grade I winner at two and also the Kelso winner at four. His 2 year olds looked great skipping over the OBS surface and I am looking forward to seeing them hit the racetrack soon.”

Mark Casse: “I have to go with War of Will, who I trained. I have something like 20 of his offspring and they're training very well. They're going to be very versatile. He was a versatile horse who could run on dirt or grass. My sleeper is Win Win Win. The horses by him have been very impressive on the track.”

David Ingordo: “I have to go with Game Winner. He was 2-year-old champion and he got a good book of mares. They look the part. We got a bunch of them that we bought to race that act precocious, but also high class, not cheap. He's my No. 1 pick. My sleeper is Honor A.P. I don't think they'll win going 4 ½ furlongs by any means, but you have the A.P. Indy line that is not Tapit. He was precocious enough, but I think he'll be a source of Classic type blood. I can see him getting a horse in the Breeders' Cup Classic or, earlier on, him getting a 2-year old in races like the American Pharoah and the Breeders' Futurity.”

Terry Finley: We have a couple of Game Winners we like and I know people liked him in Ocala. The McKinzies look like they have a lot of quality to them. I was very impressed with him at the yearling sales and at Ocala, where they sold well. He's got a good shot to come up with a big one and a horse who is going to slant those stats. I like them both but I'll go with Game Winner as my top pick and McKinzie as my sleeper.

The post Who Will Be This Year’s Leading Freshman Sire? We’ve Asked the Experts appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

WinStar Farm Stallion Improbable Euthanized

WinStar Farm stallion Improbable (City Zip), the champion older male of 2020 and a 'TDN Rising Star', was euthanized late last night at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington after suffering from ataxia behind, a condition which causes poor voluntary muscle control, the farm said in a release early Sunday.

“He was sent to Rood and Riddle yesterday morning to determine the exact cause of the ataxia,” said Elliott Walden, president, CEO, and racing manager of WinStar Farm. “He was responding well to treatment, but went to lie down in his stall, and fell awkwardly. As a result, he broke his right tibia, which could not be repaired.”

Improbable won three consecutive Grade I races in 2020, taking the GI Hollywood Gold Cup at Santa Anita, the GI Whitney S. at Saratoga and the GI Awesome Again S. at Santa Anita en route to Eclipse honors at season's end.

Undefeated at two, Improbable broke his maiden at first asking at 'The Great Race Place' in late September of 2018. He followed that up with a score in the Street Sense S. at Churchill Downs in early November, which earned him a 'TDN Rising Star' badge for the effort.

Improbable winning the Whitney | Sarah Andrew

Improbable's juvenile year ended with a five-length win going 1 1/16 in the GI Los Alamitos Futurity. His time of 1:41.18 was the fastest in over a decade.

A stakes winner each season from two to four, Improbable concluded his career with a runner-up finish in the GI Breeders' Cup Classic in 2020.

All told, he won seven starts, six of them stakes, and earned $2,729,520 for owners WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and SF Racing.

“These horses are our life, and we work every day to take care of them the best way we know how,” said Dr. Natanya Nieman, general manager and resident veterinarian at WinStar Farm. “The whole team is reeling. Improbable gave us many great moments to share with our partners, our team, and the whole racing community. It is tragic.”

Bred in Kentucky by St. George Farm and G. Watts Humphrey Jr., Improbable was acquired by Maverick Racing and China Horse Club for $200,000 out of the Taylor Made Sales Agency consignment at the 2017 Keeneland September Sale.

Out of the A.P. Indy mare Rare Event, the 8-year-old stallion was bred to 329 mares in his first two books and is represented by his initial crop of 2-year-olds this year, including a colt out of the stakes-placed Inaugurate (Empire Maker) that was purchased by trainer Jimmy DiVito, agent, for $475,000.

The post WinStar Farm Stallion Improbable Euthanized appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post

David Hanley on Improbable’s Encouraging Start

WinStar will launch four new stallions with first two-year-olds in 2024: Global Campaign, Improbable, Promises Fulfilled, and Tom's d'Etat, and it's Improbable who has come out swinging first at the sales. At OBS March, four of his colts brought six figures, selling for $475,000, $400,000, $300,000, and $250,000 and a first-crop filly fetched $140,000. The $400,000 colt, out of Libby's Tail, who breezed in 9.4 for Eddie Woods-one of three Improbables to hit that mark–was purchased in partnership by David Hanley, the Senior Vice President of Bloodstock Services at WinStar Farm, which stands Improbable. We talked to Hanley about the young sire.

TDN: What has the reaction to Improbable's first two-year-olds been like at the sale this week?

DH: People have liked them. We're extremely bullish on this horse because he was such a sound, top racehorse, having won four Grade Is over three years of training. He was also second in the Arkansas Derby and in the Breeders' Cup Classic. So he was a really exceptional athlete. The thing about him was how sound and how good a mover he was on the racetrack. He ran for three years and had 85 works in between all those races, and he never came back to the farm except to be freshened on one occasion. So he was an extremely sound and tough racehorse. He wasn't the biggest horse. But once we got him under tack, his athleticism on the racetrack was incredible. And when you looked at his works, every one was a carbon copies of the previous one. He worked five furlongs in a minute, and was so consistent. So we were waiting to see if he transferred that athleticism to his two-year-olds. And we're very happy to see that out of the ones he had here, there were four or five of them really showed up as very, very athletic horses. So we're really excited about the future with them.

TDN: You bought one yourself.

DH: We gave $400,000 for one (hip 395) and we were underbidder on another one. This horse was a leggy horse with a lot of scope and his breeze was really, really exceptional. His gallop out was spectacular. I was on the backside and he went by me like he could go around again after going in :9 4/5. And that's really what impressed us. I had seen him at Eddie Woods's and I was impressed with how he breezed out there. He had that tremendous bounce off his back end, and he did his breeze with ease. He wasn't under stress to do it. So, what we felt when we saw him was that he was very, very athletic and looked like he'd go two turns.

TDN: What is Improbable like himself, and is he stamping these two-year-olds?

DH: He wasn't the biggest horse himself in being by City Zip. What is very encouraging is that he seems to be throwing progeny with leg and stretch and with his motion and his athleticism. He got a great book of first mares. On the class performance index, his first book of mares was second only to what Authentic got. So these are the two-year-olds we're seeing now. The way the stallion business is right now, people wait and see. So, at $15,000 (from an initial stud fee of $40,000), I think he's great value right now and based on what his two-year-olds are like, we're really excited about what runners he's going to have. Obviously, he's in that third year and people are just waiting to see what happens.

TDN: He won Grade Is at two and four. What does that say to you?

Improbable (#2) rearing up in the gate before the start of the Whitney | Sarah Andrew

DH: He was a very good, undefeated two-year-old, winning the Los Al Futurity, and also the Street Sense at Churchill on the Breeders' Cup undercard, as well as his maiden. And then at three, quite honestly, he lost his way a little bit. He was second in the Arkansas Derby, but he had an incident in the gate in the previous race, the Rebel. That was in the spring of his three-year-old year. He was always an uptight horse, and after that, he was a little bit tentative in the gate and I think it affected his performance. But then he matured and relaxed and really showed just how good a horse he was as a four-year-old. So I think that was kind of how his career developed. It wasn't through any unsoundness or ability. But then we really saw what he was when he overcame all of that as a four-year-old, winning the Hollywood Gold Cup, Whitney, and Awesome Again and running second in the Breeders' Cup Classic to Authentic. Bob Baffert, the incredible horseman that he is, did such a good job getting him back to his best form.

All the trainers were saying these two-year-olds were beautiful movers. But we had to wait and see if they were going to show you that speed and, and he's answered that question with these :9 4/5 breezers. So that's very encouraging.

The post David Hanley on Improbable’s Encouraging Start appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

Source of original post