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Equibase Analysis: Run Classic Poised To Provide Big Upset In Louisiana Derby

This Saturday's Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby is the first “Road to the Kentucky Derby” points system race to offer the winner enough points (100) to guarantee a start in the gate on the first Saturday in May. The winner's share of the $1 million isn't bad either, but in spite of those two incentives only eight horses were entered.

The two most accomplished runners, Mandaloun and Midnight Bourbon, have traded wins on the run up to this race. Midnight Bourbon won the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in January but ended up third in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes four weeks later, that race won by Mandaloun.

Risen Star runner-up Proxy, who also finished second in the Lecomte, will attempt to turn the tables on his rivals. O Besos finished fourth and nearly six lengths behind third place finisher Midnight Bourbon in the Risen Star and may have his work cut out for him, as may both Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who finished sixth and ninth, respectively, in the race.

Hot Rod Charlie ships in from California off a big effort when beaten a neck and a nose for the win in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes and certainly fits with the best in this field. Last but certainly not least, Run Classic steps into stakes competition off a maiden win over the track in his second career start.

It is still early in the season, so much so that horses which have only run a couple of times can win Kentucky Derby prep races like the Louisiana Derby. This was evidenced last weekend when Concert Tour won the Rebel Stakes in only the third start of his career and his first in a two-turn race. Run Classic has already run two turns so that is not a question and in that regard he is one step further along as compared to Concert Tour. Run Classic debuted in mid-January in a sprint and finished second of 10, earning a 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the process.

Stretched out to a mile and one-sixteenth for career start number two four weeks later, on the same day as the Risen Star, Run Classic stalked the pacesetter while third in the early stages, put in a quick burst to get to the front with an eighth of a mile to go, then coasted home to an easy three and one-quarter length win. Although he earned a 90 figure, I feel he could have run faster if need be.

Putting those figures in perspective, likely Louisiana Derby betting favorite Mandaloun earned a 97 figure winning the Risen Star. Being as Run Classic is more lightly raced he may have more improving to do, as compared to Mandaloun and others already proven competitive in similar races. Specifically, making his third career start and second in a route, Run Classic has a lot of potential to leap frog over the more logical contenders and post the upset to win. That is exactly what By My Standards did to post the upset win in this race in 2019 at odds of 22/1 when winning the race after breaking his maiden in a route over the track one race earlier. By My Standards was trained by Bret Calhoun, who trains Run Classic, and that is precisely why I'm choosing Run Classic to post the upset win in the Louisiana Derby.

Hot Rod Charlie entered the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November off a maiden win in a route. Then in the Juvenile and making his second consecutive start in a dirt route, Hot Rod Charlie finished second at odds of 94 to 1, earning a career-best 100 in the process. Returning for his 3-year-old campaign at the end of January, Hot Rod Charlie proved his Breeders' Cup effort to be no fluke as he closed from fourth after stumbling at the start, missing the win by inches in a three horse photo. The 97 figure earned can logically by improved upon in his second start off a layoff so Hot Rod Charlie deserves strong consideration as a contender to win this race.

Mandaloun won the first two races of his career, both sprints, with a 97 figure in the best of the pair. Stretched out to two-turns for the first time in the Lecomte Stakes, Mandaloun was really no threat for wire-to-wire winner Midnight Bourbon but did finish just a head behind runner-up Proxy, perhaps because the winner got an uncontested lead and also because the winner had the experience of running two-turn races previously. Improving off the experience, Mandaloun turned the tables on Midnight Bourbon to win the Risen Star clearly by one and one- half lengths, equaling the 97 figure earned one month earlier. Since the distance of the Louisiana Derby is only one-sixteenth of a mile farther than the Risen Star, I don't see any issue with Mandaloun running his best here. Whether that best effort is good enough to beat the improving Run Classic and Hot Rod Charlie is the reason why this race will be a great one to watch and wager on.

The rest of the field, with their best representative Equibase Speed Figures, is Midnight Bourbon (99), O Besos (94), Proxy (97), Rightandjust (90) and Starrininmydreams (88).

Win Contenders:
Run Classic
Hot Rod Charlie
Mandaloun

Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby – Grade 2
Race14 at Fair Grounds
Saturday, March 20 – Post Time 6:44 PM E.T.
One Mile and Three Sixteenths
Three Year Olds
Purse: $1 Million

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California-Based Hot Rod Charlie Getting Revved Up For Louisiana Derby

If Doug O'Neill shows up in the Big Easy, you better take notice. The two-time Kentucky Derby winning trainer has invaded Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots for some major wins over the past decade and he'll try to do it again from his Santa Anita base in the March 20 TwinSpires Louisiana Derby (G2), when he sends Hot Rod Charlie in as a legitimate contender for the meet's centerpiece race.

The $1 million Louisiana Derby, run at 1 3/16 miles, offers 170 qualifying points for the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, on a 100-40-20-10 scale. First post for the March 20th program, which features seven other stakes including the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), will be at 11:20 a.m. CT.

Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss' Hot Rod Charlie brings some serious credentials to the Louisiana Derby. He was second to last year's 2-year-old champion Essential Quality in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile last November at Keeneland. The son of Oxbow was 94-1 that day but came within three quarters of a length of pulling off one of the biggest upsets in Breeders' Cup history. Hot Rod Charlie has the pedigree to be a star, as he's a half-brother to Breeders' Cup Sprint winner and Sprint Champion Mitole, which gave O'Neill confidence going in to the Juvenile, even though his stable star had just a maiden win to his credit at the time.

“Him being a half-brother to a Breeders' Cup winner like Mitole, we knew he had the class and the blood there,” O'Neill said. “He was training so well (going into championship day). He had routed well prior to going to Keeneland for the Breeders' Cup. He was 94-1 but he looked 9-5 to us and it was a great effort and we were very proud of him.”

Hot Rod Charlie took the rest of the year off after the Juvenile and returned January 30 in Santa Anita's Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3). He settled in fourth early and rallied nicely to finish third, beaten just a neck and nose for all the money behind the well-regarded Medina Spirit. Options are aplenty when you have a talented 3-year-old, but Fair Grounds and the Louisiana Derby made a lot of sense to O'Neill, for a myriad of reasons.

“We love the spacing and of course the distance,” O'Neill said. “I love the long stretch there at the Fair Grounds and the million-dollar purse doesn't hurt either. A lot of it was the timing too; we have a little bit of flexibility too, with the six weeks (to the Kentucky Derby). All that went into play and we're optimistic we'll get a big effort from him.”

Hot Rod Charlie shows a strong series of works at Santa Anita since the Robert Lewis, including a six-furlong move in 1:14.00 on March 6. O'Neill, who won the Kentucky Derby in 2012 with I'll Have Another and in 2016 with Nyquist, knows there's a balance between cranking up a horse too early in their 3-year-old season, which could leave the lemon a little dry come the first Saturday in May.

“We freshened him up a little bit (after the Juvenile) and he came back and ran a really tough race in the Bob Lewis,” O'Neill said. “From our experience, when you run that hard off the layoff, the best thing you can do is give them a little extra time before the next one. Just watching him train, he seems to get stronger as the distances go out in the morning.”

The Louisiana Derby is shaping up as one of the best renewals in years, with Mandaloun, Proxy, and Midnight Bourbon — the top-3 in the locally run Risen Star (G2) — all expected back, along with some strong new shooters as well. O'Neill won the Risen Star in 2007 with Notional and Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) in 2017 with Mistical Plan and in 2016 with Land Over Sea, so he knows what to expect when he rolls into town.

“We know going to the Fair Grounds it will be some tall grass and it won't be easy by any means,” O'Neill said. “The one good thing we know is Hot Rod Charlie can ship without a problem and fly to other places and run. The field is going to be tough, but for a million dollars you expect that. It's exciting every time you get to run in New Orleans. There's so much energy in the air. If you don't like New Orleans, you don't like life.”

According to Fair Grounds' racing secretary Scott Jones, the prospective field for the Louisiana Derby include: Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing, and William Strauss' Hot Rod Charlie (O'Neill); Juddmonte Farms' Mandaloun (Brad Cox); Godolphin's Proxy (Mike Stidham); Winchell Thoroughbreds' Midnight Bourbon (Steve Asmussen); Michael Shanley's Nova Rags (Bill Mott); Barrett Bernard, Tagg Team Racing, and West Point Thoroughbreds' O Besos (Greg Foley); Wayne T. Davis' Rightandjust (Shane Wilson); John and Diane Fradkin's Rombauer (Mike McCarthy); Tom Durant's Run Classic (Bret Calhoun); and Stewart Racing Stable and WinStar Farm's Starrininmydreams (Dallas Stewart).

The draw for the 108^th edition of the Louisiana Derby (G2) will take place live on the Fair Grounds simulcast feed and via Facebook live on Saturday, March 13th at 11:30 a.m. CT.

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Callaghan: ‘Lots Of Blue Sky Ahead’ For San Felipe Candidate Roman Centurian

Roman Centurian was beaten 12 ¼ lengths by Life Is Good in his debut race last Nov. 22, but after an impressive maiden win and a bang-up second by a neck to Medina Spirit in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30, Simon Callaghan is gearing up the son of Empire Maker for another go at Life Is Good in the G2 San Felipe Stakes on March 6.

“He's a very talented horse and I think the San Felipe will be a very interesting race,” said Callaghan, who conditions Roman Centurian for breeders Don Alberto Corporation, which also owns the colt along with Qatar Racing Limited. He was a $550,000 yearling purchase at the Keeneland September Sale.

“I think the San Felipe will reveal a lot, but again, Roman Centurian is a very good horse. I'm happy with him and looking forward to the race.”

Juan Hernandez, who rode Roman Centurian in the Lewis, will be back aboard in the San Felipe, Callaghan said.

Hernandez was in the irons today for a five-furlong workout in 1:00.40. “I was very happy,” Callaghan said. “It was a typical breeze for him. He moved good and finished up really well.”

Roman Centurian had an eventful trip in the 1 1/16-mile Lewis, trailing in the field of six after a half-mile, going five wide into the stretch, and bumping third-place finisher Hot Rod Charlie at the eighth pole.

According to the Equibase chart, Roman Centurian “could not get by the winner,” Medina Spirit, who, like Life Is Good, is trained by Bob Baffert.

“I think he's always going to have that style of closing,” Callaghan said, “but he definitely covered more ground in the Lewis and was kind of bumped; that didn't help him.

“It's five weeks from the Lewis to the San Felipe so we're going to see some progression in our horse. There's lots of blue sky ahead of him.”

The San Felipe is a major steppingstone to the Grade I, $750,000 Runhappy Santa Anita Derby on April 3 and offers 50 Kentucky Derby qualifying points to the winner, 20 to the runner-up, 10 to the third-place finisher and five to the fourth. The race was won last year by Authentic, who would go on to be named Horse of the Year.

Life Is Good is the 7-1 individual favorite in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wagering, while Roman Centurian is listed at 41-1. The mutuel field is favored at 3-1.

Roman Centurian calls Santa Anita home along with fellow Triple Crown hopefuls Life Is Good, Freedom Fighter, Medina Spirit and Concert Tour for Baffert; Dream Shake for Peter Eurton; and Hot Rod Charlie and The Great One for Doug O'Neill.

Also working Saturday morning were Medina Spirit (six furlongs in a bullet 1:12.40); San Vicente winner Concert Tour (four furlongs in 47.20); and Louisiana Derby-bound Hot Rod Charlie and San Felipe contender The Great One (five furlongs in 1:02 and 1:01.20, breezing, respectively).

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‘He’s Got Game’: Baffert Impressed By Medina Spirit’s Gutty Victory In Robert B. Lewis

Move over, Authentic.

In a performance even more surreal than Authentic's Kentucky Derby triumph, Medina Spirit upstaged Bob Baffert's newly minted Horse of the Year Saturday, staring defeat in the eye down the homestretch and refusing to blink, holding off two pursuers through the last quarter mile to win the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes in a stretch run for the ages.

It wasn't Jaipur and Bill Shoemaker and Ridan and Manuel Ycaza going neck and neck for a mile and a quarter in the 1962 Travers, Jaipur on the outside eventually winning by a nose, but the three-horse battle down the lane in the Lewis will do until the next thing comes along.

(Aside to readers: It's worth watching the '62 Travers and hear announcer Fred Capossela's distinctive, halting, staccato, call. Comedian Robert Klein does a classic impression of 'Cappy' who when asked by his wife what he wants for dinner, responds with, 'I'll have Caesar salad first, roast beef second, mashed potatoes third, peas and carrots fourth …).”

Even Baffert thought he wasn't going to win after Roman Centurian and Hot Rod Charlie hooked pacesetting Medina Spirit at the head of the stretch. As it was, Medina Spirit, who led virtually from the start after breaking from the rail, prevailed by a short neck over Roman Centurian, with Hot Rod Charlie a nose back in third.

“I thought he was beat,” Baffert said after the race.

All was well on Sunday with Baffert's record 10th Lewis triumph safely in the archives.

“He was gutty as could be, showed some grit, and that's what you want to see,” Baffert said Sunday morning. “He's got game. He beat a good field and the California horses (on the Triple Crown trail) are pretty strong.”

Baffert now has the enviable but challenging assignment of deciding on Medina Spirit's next race, as he must with individual Kentucky Derby Future Wager favorite Life Is Good, among others in his barn of well-stocked sophomore bluebloods.

“We'll just go week by week,” Baffert said. “I don't really plan anything out. I'll wait a couple weeks before I decide. As a matter of fact, I wasn't even going to run in the Lewis until the last minute. I decided I liked the way he (Medina Spirit) worked, put him in there, didn't want to be sittin' on him, breezing him. Sometimes they get hurt just working them, so I'd just rather put a race into him.

“We're learning about the horse. It wasn't an ideal way for him to run that way yesterday (on the lead from the rail), but his hand was sort of set from the start when he broke a little slow and he (Abel Cedillo) couldn't really take him back. He never had a chance to really get him out like he did the last time (second to Life Is Good in the Sham).

“There was a lot of speed yesterday, and from a different post he could have relaxed more. But it was good for him, he got something out of it and showed there's a lot of quality.

“It puts him right up with what's out there now. We still haven't seen any American Pharoahs or Justifys yet, but Medina Spirit's win makes Life Is Good look better, too.

“This next couple months you'll see a lot of horses change.”

As to Spielberg, who finished a disappointing fourth, beaten just over 11 lengths, Baffert said, “He was never really in it. He didn't like dirt in his face. He didn't show up, but they'll do that.”

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