`Chuck’ Puts Next Generation on Derby Trail

It's not what you would think. Not the invincible, fist-pumping, chest-bumping days. No, the real bond is forged exactly where the rest of us would least imagine—in the moments of disappointment, moments of doubt. That's where you really learn about each other.

“Honestly, thinking back, what I remember most is those bus rides back from games we lost,” says Patrick O'Neill. “And that's crazy to say. We were very competitive. Second or third, pretty much every year we played in the Ivy League. But it's those losses where you really get to know who you can trust; what people's characters are; who you can lean on when you play a bad game, or vice versa. Those are the memories that stay with you. Those were the times where I needed them, or they needed me. And we were always there for each other.”

But that kind of intensity, by definition, can't extend a lifetime. These were young men of elite accomplishment, in both intellectual and physical capacity; and they were entitled to corresponding ambition. When they left Brown University, they knew that the world would gradually have to look a little different: they would have to think about careers, courtship, maybe someday starting a family. And that implied a dread you would never want to admit to yourself, when still in your early twenties. What if life was never again to be lived in quite the same pitch?

Patrick wouldn't presume to compare what they had shared to military service. He has too much respect for veterans to do that. But maybe it's as close as you can get, outside uniform and within the law.

“Football is violent, it's aggressive, oftentimes scary out there,” he reflects. “And you grow this brotherhood. 'I got your back, you got my back.' You have that competitive spirit. You win together, you lose together. We've seen each other cry, we've seen each other get hurt, we've seen each other triumph.

Dan Giovacchini, Eric Armagost, Alex Quoyeser, Patrick O'Neill and Reiley Higgins at the Breeders' Cup | Patrick O'Neill photo

“So we have these four amazing years where we spend literally every waking minute with each other. Woke up in the same house, went to work out together, breakfast together. Often you're in the same classes. Film studies together, football practice together. And, at the end of the day, fun together as well.

“And then you graduate, and go off into the real world. Now each one of us, we're very fortunate. We got the jobs we worked so hard for, through college and internships and all through our education. But, to some degree, there's this hole in your life.”

So they decided to form a racing partnership, just to keep those precious ties from getting too loose. It wasn't even Patrick's idea. The other guys always knew that he was mad about the ponies. During their senior year, he insisted on adding TVG to their cable package, and they knew that his uncle trained out in California. In fact, he was still in his freshman year when Doug O'Neill and his brother and assistant Dennis won the Kentucky Derby itself with I'll Have Another (Flower Alley). The year after Patrick graduated, they did it again with Nyquist (Uncle Mo). So this, his friends saw, was not just a quirky obsession; this was pretty much a family business.

Not for his dad, admittedly.  As the oldest of four brothers, Dave O'Neill had seen the other side of the coin. Their father—Patrick's grandfather, that is, for whom he is named—had an infectious enthusiasm for racing back in Detroit, but equally contagious were his wagers. One would lead to another, and the oldest of his boys learned a wariness of the track. Doug and Dennis saw only the excitement, and after graduating from high school they were immediately walking hots. But Dave felt that someone in the family should maintain an even keel. He went to the University of Michigan through a caddie scholarship, and then broke down the next door with a great job in telecommunications out west.

But life being what it is, the brothers received very different dividends for their staking plan in the gamble of life. Dave grew sick of corporate America after the telecoms sector crashed in the early 2000s and, since Patrick's mom Margie was originally from Hawaii, that's where they moved for a new start. On the flip side, Doug and Dennis went from winning $8,000 claimers at Bay Meadows to transforming Lava Man (Slew City Slew) into a triple Hollywood Gold Cup winner with a ticket to the Hall of Fame. Patrick was captivated, albeit from afar now that they had moved to islands 3,000 miles away.

Tragically, his other uncle Danny died of melanoma at just 38; and then his father was diagnosed with a similar condition in his mid-50s. They gave him maybe six months or so. Patrick was by then at Brown, literally half a world away from Hawaii, and that was a lot to deal with.

“But he ended up making it two years,” Patrick says. “And I could not be more thankful to him for making my graduation. What an amazing brother he was to my uncles, husband to my mom, and dad to myself and my sisters. Looking back, yes, there was a lot going on. But I was very blessed to have such great support around me, with the O'Neills and my mom's side as well, and then all these amazing friends. We remember him, and he's definitely on this ride with us today.”

Hot Rod Charlie (#9, right) wins the $1,000,000 Grade II Louisiana Derby at the Fair Grounds | Hodges Photography

Because some ride it's turning out to be. As we've noted already, it was four of those amazing friends—Eric Armagost, Dan Giovacchini, Reiley Higgins and Alex Quoyeser—who had to talk Patrick into investing in his uncle's barn. Patrick agreed that the football brotherhood had to stick together. They had all ended up on the West Coast, but obviously they were no longer living in each other's pockets. A couple of years ago they had a reunion, and Patrick organized a backside pass at Del Mar. They had a tour of the barn, met Doug and Dennis, cheered home a winner for the team.

“And they were like, 'Wow, this sport is incredible!'” remembers Patrick. “And being smart, career-oriented guys, they said, 'Look, you kind of have an inside path in a lot of this: you know all about breeding, you have this great connection through Doug and Dennis. We should think about creating a syndicate.' And for me personally, knowing my grandpa's story, I was pretty adamant against it. But slowly they convinced me. But I said, 'Well, if we're going to do this, we're going to do it the right way. We're going to create an LLC; we're going to have an operating agreement; we're going to treat it like a diversified portfolio, and leverage Dennis at the sales, and Doug and Team O'Neill for the training.'”

They started with a share in a couple of OBS juveniles. One broke exactly even. The other “we got totally crushed on.”

“So we probably had one bullet left, in terms of continuing our business,” Patrick recalls. “And we got a call that fall from Dennis, at the Fasig-Tipton October Sale. As you know, typically Dennis doesn't buy yearlings. But he said, 'I'm looking at this colt, he's a half to Mitole (Eskendereya), and he's gorgeous. He's not just a sprinter: he's athletic, he's everything I look for in a horse.'”

There was a leg left, would the boys be interested? This was just before the Breeders' Cup, where Mitole would go on to nail down a divisional title. His sibling should have been unaffordable but—”all credit to Dennis”—they got him for $110,000. If his sire wasn't especially commercial, great: his racing career was a perfect template. Just like Oxbow, Hot Rod Charlie took four attempts to break his maiden but is now legitimately on the Classic trail.

When he sneaked into the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile field, they looked at the pari-mutuel board and saw that “Chuck”, as they call him, was 94-1. They shrugged. What a blast, just to be there. Then they watched in astonishment as Hot Rod Charlie cruised into contention and then took over at the top of the stretch. Though ultimately just caught by Essential Quality (Tapit), he pushed the champ all the way. “We were going berserk,” says Patrick. “We were hitting each other, jumping, chairs were getting thrown.”

So who still missed the football field now? Suddenly this could even be a Kentucky Derby horse. True, “Chuck” was beaten on his return in the GIII Robert B. Lewis S. and, albeit he finished really well, the two who held him didn't do much for the form next time. But then, last Saturday, Hot Rod Charlie won the longest trial of all in the GII Louisiana Derby. The giant shadow of Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) loomed over their frontrunner turning in, but plucky “Chuck” just kicked again and saw him off decisively. Next stop Louisville, first Saturday in May.

“In the paddock Midnight Bourbon looked incredible, as Steve Asmussen's horses usually do,” Patrick reflects. “And when he ranged up, I was like, 'Uh-oh, this is not good.' But our guy's just so tough. He doesn't care that he's a hand shorter than Midnight Bourbon. All he knows is he wants to get to that finish line first.

“Doug and his team have done such an amazing job with him. In the Lewis, at a mile and 1/16th against two really good horses, he was probably 75 percent fit after 90 days off. Then with the seven weeks to this race, he'd never been training better. He's always been a lean horse but he's finally filling out.”

One thing Patrick can't stress enough. His guys only have one leg in this horse, and would hate for their youth and enthusiasm to distract too much attention from their more seasoned partners. He knows that for Bill Strauss, and the Roadrunner syndicate of Greg Helm, a bone fide Derby contender crowns much a longer and deeper investment in the game—not just financially, but in terms of their own passion and commitment.

“They could very much have been like, 'Oh my God, who are these young rascals?'” Patrick says. “And they could not have been cooler or greater. They say, 'I love this sport. I want it promoted to the younger generation. You guys are doing that, and should do it as much as you can. Keep going.' These are two amazing individuals. And that's what happens, when you go on a ride like this. From people you didn't know at all, you end up with friends you'll have forever. Greg and Bill will be mentors to me and my friends for the rest of our lives.”

Strauss joined the youngsters and their families and girlfriends to celebrate in New Orleans last Saturday, and whatever happens in Louisville the whole group will be enjoying every second. As the Turf evangelist within his group, moreover, Patrick has loved to see the passion and the knowledge bloom among his novice buddies.

“That's my inside joke to them,” he says with a laugh. “I tell them, 'You guys are screwed for the rest of your lives.' You're going to have this ride. And then we're all going to be chasing this feeling, and this type of horse, for the next 20 years. So I'm able to tell them how lucky they are. They ask so many questions, like who is this Tapit guy who wins every race? And what are these Ragozins, and Beyers, and Thoro-Graphs? But it's great, for me personally, because I love this sport so much and having great young talent come into it is huge.

“No joke, it gives me chills, to see some of the best friends in my life so happy right there in the winner's circle. That's one of the best feelings in the world. This sport that I grew up in, that means so much to my family—and they are hooked. It shows you what a great world this is, and that if we market it properly, who knows what it could be for this next generation?”

As the one who understands the odds still to be overcome, Patrick is trying not to think too far ahead; especially with the Breeders' Cup this year returning to what is nowadays his local track. He knows to take everything one step at a time. But “Chuck” has the potential to be a precious vehicle for the whole industry. For one thing, as the final bequest of Edward A. Cox Jr., he already has a bunch of people in his corner—from his late breeder's grandchildren (well over three dozen of those, at the last count) to that old sage Bill Landes at Hermitage Farm. Bob and Sean Feld, too, will be hoping that Hot Rod Charlie can continue to magnify the skill with which they pinhooked a $17,000 short yearling. But the biggest deal of all is if young people on the outside see just how much fun these boys are having.

With such momentous stakes, then, they do well to remember the lessons learned together on the football field. To some people, sport is too frivolous to justify the emotion and money that many of us pour into it. But we only do that because it really teaches us about life, and about each other; because we know how true a mirror it holds up to the world.

“I don't even know if this whole thing is a million-to-one,” Patrick says. “It might be more like a billion-to-one. We really try to keep each other's feet on the ground. That's the input that I always received from my dad, from Doug and Dennis: about all the ups and downs in life. I respect LeBron James so much, but he's perfect physically, he's super smart and an amazing athlete. But then you also have guys like Steph Curry, who's six three. They figure it out. Those are the people that resonate because they have to get through tough experiences, tough times.

“So yes, sport is an amazing analogy for life. And if you can properly navigate college sports, it helps you to deal with other trials and tribulations. So with Hot Rod Charlie, obviously I hope he never loses another race again. But we'd be foolish to think that will be the case. There will be a time when he doesn't run to his best, and we're going to sit there and have five seconds to sulk about it. But then we're going to realize that life goes on, and that we still have each other. Just like a loss in football. You keep moving forward. Because all the amazing experiences you're going through together are never going to be

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Hot Rod Charlie Vaults To Four In NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll

Hot Rod Charlie's frontrunning victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby on March 20 was enough to elevate the son of Oxbow in this week's National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA) Top 3-Year-Old Thoroughbred Poll.

Trained by Doug O'Neill, Hot Rod Charlie finished second in last year's Breeders' Cup Juvenile and began his sophomore campaign with a third-place run in the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30. In the wake of his victory in the Louisiana Derby – the colt's first graded stakes triumph – Hot Rod Charlie earned 261 points to move into the fourth spot on the poll.

Unbeaten juvenile champion Essential Quality maintained his top position in the rankings, notching 30 first-place votes and 381 points ahead of his expected run in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes on April 3. Concert Tour, winner of the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, moved up to second with 7 first-place votes and 328 points with Greatest Honour, the expected favorite for Saturday's Grade 1 Florida Derby, ranking third with 2 first-place votes and 313 points.

Medina Spirit sits fifth behind Hot Rod Charlie with 177 points while Life Is Good (138 points) dropped to sixth after it was announced he was off the Triple Crown trail due to injury. Risk Taking (97 points) is seventh followed by Midnight Bourbon (85), Helium (71), and Spielberg (49).

There was little movement in this week's NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll with Grade 1 winner Charlatan continuing to lead the way with 24 first-place votes and 364 points. Two-time Eclipse Award winner Monomoy Girl (12 first-place votes, 337 points) remains second followed by champion filly Swiss Skydiver (2 first-place votes, 274 points) and Knicks Go (1 first-place vote, 271 points).

Grade 1 winner Colonel Liam moves up into the fifth position with 211 points in the aftermath of his victory in the Grade 2 Muniz Memorial Classic Stakes this past weekend. Mystic Guide (1 first-place vote, 161 points) ranks sixth ahead of his slated start in the Dubai World Cup followed by
Idol (147 points), Maxfield (81), Shedaresthedevil (53), and champion female sprinter Gamine (48).

The NTRA Top Thoroughbred polls are the sport's most comprehensive surveys of experts. Every week eligible journalists and broadcasters cast votes for their top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 basis. All horses that have raced in the U.S., are in training in the U.S., or are known to be pointing to a major event in the U.S. are eligible for the NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll. Voting in the Top Three-Year-Old Thoroughbred Poll concludes following the Belmont Stakes on June 5 and the Top Thoroughbred Poll is scheduled to be conducted through November 6.

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The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23

No, the world didn't tilt off its axis last Saturday. But there was a seismic shift within the Top 12 rankings. 'TDN Rising Star' Life Is Good (Into Mischief) was declared off the GI Kentucky Derby trail with a left hind ankle chip, and two other highly rated contenders failed to fire in the GII Louisiana Derby. But new shooters have filled the vacuum–as always. The cadence quickens while the plot thickens inside the six-week mark to Derby 147.

1) GREATEST HONOUR (c, Tapit–Tiffany's Honour, by Street Cry {Ire})
O/B-Courtlandt Farms (KY). T-Claude R. McGaughey III. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 6-3-1-2, $351,940.
Last Start: 1st GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S., GP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 1st GIII Holy Bull S.
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 60.

There was plenty of upheaval in the standings behind Greatest Honour over the weekend while the Top 12 kingpin enjoyed a drama-free final tune-up prior to Saturday's GI Curlin Florida Derby. This Tapit-sired Courtlandt Farms homebred is a powerful, long-striding stayer who isn't afraid to face adversity square-on. After starting his career by closing admirably at shorter distances in deep New York MSW races, Greatest Honour dialed in to a winning groove at Gulfstream, pulling off the rare feat of closing to win from well off the tailgate in three straight 1 1/16-mile races (over a short-stretch configuration that tilts the advantage to speedsters). During that streak, Greatest Honour overcame dealing with a loose horse in his allowance win, uncoiled with a devastating stretch kick despite not being fully focused in the GIII Holy Bull S., then re-rallied in the GII Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth S. (FOY) after getting clipped by a rival and losing momentum on the far turn. Trainer Shug McGaughey has been quietly confident this bay is a “longer-the-better” type of sophomore attempting to follow the same FOY/Florida Derby/Louisville path that McGaughey's only previous Kentucky Derby winner, Orb (Malibu Moon), took while winning all three of those races in 2013. The two main knocks against Greatest Honour are 1) his comparatively low Beyer Speed Figures (career best of 89, twice); and 2) his come-from-behind running style, which can be a hindrance in a 20-horse race like the Derby where closers are at the mercy of traffic.

2) ESSENTIAL QUALITY (c, Tapit–Delightful Quality, by Elusive Quality)
O/B-Godolphin (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: Ch. 2yo Colt & MGISW, 4-4-0-0, $1,785,144.
Last Start: 1st GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity, 1st GI TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Next Start: GII Toyota Blue Grass S., KEE, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 40.

Tapit-sired 'TDN Rising Star' Essential Quality is Blue Grass bound, and the selection of that Toyota-sponsored Grade II Keeneland stakes was the most logical among the next-race options that were being considered for this Godolphin homebred. This athletic gray with a streak of aggression earned his juvenile championship over that surface when winning the GI Claiborne Breeders' Futurity S. and the GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile there last autumn; as of this writing, no other Top 12 contenders are committed to that race. Essential Quality holds more than a few Derby aces at this stage of the season: he scores highly in terms of tactical prowess, has posted top-notch speed numbers that keep arcing upward; he's won in the slop and has won at Churchill. Now that Hot Rod Charlie (Oxbow), the 94-1 runner-up in the Juvenile, has broken through with a win in the Louisiana Derby (see below), I can no longer keep carping that Essential Quality didn't beat many horses of consequence in the Breeders' Cup (the second, third, and fifth horses have now all won stakes). But it's imperative to respect history, and the fact remains that only two of 36 Juvenile winners (5.5%) have gone on to win the Derby. Even if you widen that metric to include all the 1-2-3 finishers in the entire history of the Juvenile, the Breeders' Cup still rates as a very poor prognosticator of Derby success, with only four Derby winners emerging from those 108 in-the-money Juvenile finishers (3.7%).

3) CONCERT TOUR (c, Street Sense–Purse Strings, by Tapit)
O/B-Gary & Mary West Stables Inc (KY); T-Bob Baffert. Lifetime Record: MGSW, 3-3-0-0, $756,600.
Last Start: 1st GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star', 1st GII San Vicente S., SA, Feb. 6
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

'TDN Rising Star' Concert Tour burst into the Top 12 after his 4 1/4-length thrashing of the GII Rebel S. field at Oaklawn Mar. 13. This Street Sense homebred for Gary and Mary West torqued out a convincing score thanks to deft piloting by jockey Joel Rosario. Concert Tour broke running and forced rail-drawn favorite and 'TDN Rising Star' Caddo River (Hard Spun) to concede both the fence and the lead. Concert Tour maintained a margin of a length down the backstretch, then edged away under his own power while a clearly flustered Caddo River was fully driven and eventually cracked. No other closers were in it to win it, and this colt ran up the score while looking strong doing so. Based on the visually impressive nature of the victory, I thought Caddo River's 94 Beyer might have clocked in higher (it matched his last-out GII San Vicente S. win). But the effort was just the third-fastest of four 1 1/16 miles races at Oaklawn that afternoon, slower than two stakes and only 0.19 seconds faster than an allowance (all for older horses). Something to think about down the line: Rosario might have to choose between Concert Tour and Hot Rod Charlie, the other new shooter ranked right behind him at No. 4.

4) HOT ROD CHARLIE (c, Oxbow–Indian Miss, by Indian Charlie)
O-Roadrunner Racing, Boat Racing LLC & William Strauss; B-Edward A Cox (KY); T-Doug O'Neill. Sales history: $17,000 Ylg '19 FTKFEB; $110,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-1-2, $1,005,700.
Last Start: 1st GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20
Accomplishments: 2nd GI Breeders' Cup Juvenile, KEE, Nov. 6; 3rd GIII Robert B. Lewis S., SA, Jan. 30
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 110.

What do you get when you breed the dam of 2019 sprint champ Mitole to the wire-to-wire winner of the 2013 GI Preakness S.? The answer is Hot Rod Charlie, a determined son of Oxbow who solidified his status as a Top 12 contender with a 99-Beyer win in the 1 3/16-mile Louisiana Derby. For everyone who thought his 94-1 near-miss in the Breeders' Cup was a fluke (that would include me), Saturday's gritty win should serve notice that this two-time Fasig-Tipton sales grad ($17,000 FTKFEB; $110,000 FTKOCT) reliably scores higher in tenacity than many of his peers at this point in the Triple Crown chase. Hot Rod Charlie broke running, and when jockey Joel Rosario sensed no other rivals were eager to assume command, he forged to the front with stalker Midnight Bourbon (Tiznow) applying pressure from the outside. Five-sixteenths from the wire, Midnight Bourbon appeared primed to pounce but could not wrest away the lead, and Hot Rod Charlie kept outkicking him under judicious handling by Rosario (guiding home his nation-leading 11th graded stakes winner of 2021). “Working with him in the morning, he relaxes and you don't have to get him in the race,” Rosario said. “He handled the distance very well. Very impressive. With [Midnight Bourbon] coming on his outside, he really fought back. He doesn't have to be on the lead. He can do anything. He can be a little bit off the pace and will run the same way.”

5) SPIELBERG (c, Union Rags–Miss Squeal, by Smart Strike)
O-SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Golconda Stables, Siena Farm LLC, & Robert Masterson. B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (Ky). T-Bob Baffert. Sales history: $1,000,000 yrl '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & MGISP, 8-2-3-1, $413,200.
Last Start: 2nd GIII Southwest S., OP, Feb. 27
Next Start: GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27.
Accomplishments: 1st GII Los Alamitos Futurity,
2nd GI Runhappy Del Mar Futurity, 3rd GI American Pharoah S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 17.

Spielberg will go next in the Florida Derby, and that's an unusual move for trainer Bob Baffert. Despite being loaded with talented 3-year-olds every season and often having to shop for non-conflicting stakes to keep them apart, this Grade I prep never seems to be on Baffert's radar screen. In fact, Baffert has only started horses at Gulfstream on four occasions over the last four years, and each was in the GI Pegasus World Cup (two wins, a second, and a seventh). Spielberg, a $1-million KEESEP colt, is by Union Rags, who was a narrowly beaten third at 2-5 odds in the 2012 Florida Derby. Union Rags then ran seventh in the Kentucky Derby, skipped the Preakness, but won the GI Belmont S. by edging out the Baffert-trained Paynter (Awesome Again) by a neck. “He's a great-feeling horse,” Baffert said of Spielberg, who has eight starts worth of experience, but is currently parked at 16th on the qualifying list with 17 points. “He came out of [the GIII Southwest S.] in great shape,” Baffert added, explaining that Spielberg still needs to work on some gate issues. An awkward start in the slop at Oaklawn left this chestnut with far too much work to do, yet he still closed with purpose to get second behind juvenile champ Essential Quality.

6) CADDO RIVER (c, Hard Spun–Pangburn, by Congrats)
O/B-Shortleaf Stable (KY). T-Brad Cox. Lifetime Record: SW, 5-2-2-0, $196,092. Last Start: 5th GII Rebel S., OP, Mar. 13.
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Next Start: GI Arkansas Derby, OP, Apr. 10
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Caddo River looked uncomfortable every step of the trip en route to a subpar fifth at 6-5 odds in the GII Rebel S., but the result was so aberrational that he deserves reconsideration in the GI Arkansas Derby. This 'TDN Rising Star' will need to rebound big-time in that final Kentucky Derby prep because right now he's on the outside looking in, ranked 24th with only 10 qualifying points. Caddo River didn't seize the lead from his inside post and jockey Florent Geroux opted to concede the pacemaking to Concert Tour, which would have been fine except that this Hard Spun homebred for Shortleaf Stable was rank and refused to settle. By the time Geroux finally let him go, Concert Tour had momentum and confidence while Caddo River boiled over as a result of self-inflicted duress three-sixteenths from the wire. Trainer Brad Cox said Caddo River emerged from that meltdown none the worse for wear; in the best-case scenario the colt perhaps got a decent schooling out of it. But it's now an open question as to whether Caddo River can round into a multi-dimensional threat, because the only two races he's won have been the ones in which he led at every call.

7) MIDNIGHT BOURBON (c, Tiznow–Catch the Moon, by Malibu Moon)
O-Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC; B-Stonestreet Thoroughbred Holdings LLC (KY); T-Steve Asmussen. Sales History: $525,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: GSW & GISP, 7-2-2-3, $461,420.
Last Start: 2nd GII Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby, FG, Mar. 20.
Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Risen Star S., FG, Feb. 13; 1st GIII Lecomte S., FG, Jan. 16, 3rd
GI Champagne S., 2nd GIII Iroquois S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 66.

Midnight Bourbon ran hard and ran well when second in Saturday's Louisiana Derby, but his challenges were stoutly repulsed by convincing victor Hot Rod Charlie. Ranked second in qualifying points with 66, this $525,000 KEESEP colt by Tiznow has earned his way into a Derby starting spot, and he will bring some upside to Louisville that could make him an intriguing wiseguy play at odds in the 20-1 range. He is the only 3-year-old in the nation to have run three 93 or better Beyer figures since January (96 in each of his last two efforts), and you can't quibble with his stamina-centric foundation of seven races at a mile or longer. Where the argument in favor of Midnight Bourbon starts to erode, though, is when you consider that he hasn't truly evolved into a horse who can seal the deal under pressure in the stretch. His GIII Lecomte S. score was aided by being able to control a moderate tempo, and he twice had the lead between calls in the GII Risen Star S. but couldn't parlay that optimal positioning into a win.

8) KNOWN AGENDA (c, Curlin–Byrama {GB}, by Byron {GB}) O/B-St Elias Stable (KY); T-Todd Pletcher. Sales history: $135,000 RNA Ylg '19 FTSAUG. Lifetime Record: 5-2-1-1, $104,600.
Last Start: 1st GP allowance, Feb. 26.
Next Start: Possible for GI Curlin Florida Derby, GP, Mar. 27
Accomplishments: 3rd GII Remsen S., AQU, Dec. 5
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 2.

By late March, you're hoping that your Derby contender already has his “learning curve” races behind him, and if that's the case for Known Agenda in the Florida Derby, look out. Discount this colt's third-place try (beaten nine lengths) in the sloppy GII Remsen S. and overlook his twilight-zone Tampa fifth in the GIII Sam F. Davis S. (double-digit lengths off the pace for the first time) and what do you see? How about a Curlin colt who beat No. 1 kingpin Greatest Honour in a New York MSW back in November and was later an 11-length Gulfstream winner Feb. 26 over the same track and distance as Saturday's Florida Derby? Now things could get interesting for this Todd Pletcher-trained $135,000 RNA at FTSAUG, who just celebrated his third birthday Mar. 22. The blinkers that Known Agenda added for last month's allowance-optional claiming blowout will stay, but the Lasix this colt got for the first time in that much-improved race won't be allowed in the Florida Derby because of new phase-out drug rules being implemented in Triple Crown prep races this spring.

 9) PREVALENCE (c, Medaglia d'OroEnrichment, by Ghostzapper)
O/B-Godolphin (KY); T-Brendan Walsh. Lifetime Record: 2-2-0-0, $52,800.
Last Start: 1st Allowance/Opt. Clm., GP, Mar. 11
Next Start: Uncommitted
Accomplishments: 'TDN Rising Star'
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 0.

'TDN Rising Star' Prevalence was the easiest kind of winner at 1-10 odds when gliding home under light encouragement in a Mar. 11 allowance-optional claimer over a one-turn mile at Gulfstream. This Godolphin homebred broke fluidly, conceded the lead while pressing the pace, engaged the leader on the far turn, then took over at the quarter pole and had no anxious moments in the stretch. From a progression standpoint the effort should serve as a useful tightener for a looming stakes engagement. Prevalence had spiked a fever and missed some February training, so he's on the prowl for qualifying points in order to earn a berth in Louisville. But questions remain as to whether the timing is right for a run for the roses: Prevalence may be 2-for-2, but he's yet to attempt two turns and will need to come off Lasix in order to face stakes company. It's also worth noting that he ran a slower Beyer number against winners than he did in his debut, regressing from an 87 to an 83.

 10) HELIUM (c, 3, Ironicus–Thundering Emilia, by Thunder Gulch) O-D J Stable LLC; B-Teneri Farm Inc &
Bernardo Alvarez Calderon (KY); T-Mark Casse. Sales history: $55,000 Ylg '19 FTKOCT. Lifetime Record: GSW, 3-3-0-0, $287,763.
Last Start: 1st GII Lambholm South Tampa Bay Derby, TAM,
Mar. 6. Next Start: GI Kentucky Derby, CD, May 1
Accomplishments: 1st Display S., WO, Oct. 18.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 50.

Helium's connections are forging an unconventional route to Louisville that won't include another prep race. That will leave an eight-week gap between this colt's 84-Beyer victory at 15-1 odds in the GII Tampa Bay Derby and the first Saturday in May. Jon Green, the manager of DJ Stable, told TDN the plan will be to train this $55,000 FTKOCT (and subsequently privately purchased) first-crop Ironicus colt at Palm Meadows, then ship to Churchill three weeks out from the Derby. “Is it perfect? It's not perfect. Are there risks? Yes. But we feel what's best for the horse is to give him the time and slowly peak him into the Kentucky Derby,” Green said. He added that the riding assignment for the 3-for-3 colt has yet to be decided (Tampa-based Jose Ferrer was Helium's most recent jockey while Emma-Jayne Wilson rode in the two Woodbine victories). “Jose did a great job on him,” said Green. But, “for the same reason riding Jose at Tampa Bay made sense, you have to have somebody who has the experience in big races and the experience at Churchill Downs. That's no disrespect to Jose, but I would think we would need to explore other opportunities.”

 11) RISK TAKING (c, 3, Medaglia d'Oro–Run a Risk, by Distorted Humor) O-Klaravich Stables Inc; B-G Watts Humphrey Jr (KY); T-Chad Brown. Sales history: $240,000 Ylg '19 KEESEP. Lifetime Record: 4-2-0-0, $182,530
Last Start: 1st GIII Withers S., AQU, Feb. 6.
Next Start: GII Wood Memorial S., AQU, Apr. 3.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 10.

Risk Taking was beaten nearly 10 lengths in each of his first two career tries, but his pedigree (by Medaglia d'Oro out of a Distorted Humor mare) suggested that neither six furlongs on the dirt nor yielding turf at 1 1/16 miles were going to be his sweet spot anyway. This $240,000 KEESEP bay woke up at 5-1 odds when tasked with nine furlongs on the main track at Aqueduct, then followed that win with another smart 1 1/8 mile-score in the GIII Withers S. That victory earned an 89 Beyer, and Risk Taking caught the eye by cruising along comfortably in stalk mode before quickening when cued to reel in a tiring pacemaker. He'll go two months between starts when attempting the GII Wood Memorial S. to decide if he's Derby-bound, but trying to get a read on this colt by scrutinizing his company lines doesn't yield much insight: nine rivals out of his two Aqueduct wins have now come back to make subsequent starts, and they've collectively managed only two next-out victories.

12) MEDINA SPIRIT (c, Protonico–Mongolian Changa, by Briliant Speed)
O-Zedan Racing Stables. B-Gail Rice (FL). T-Bob Baffert. Sales History: $1,000 ylg '19 OBSWIN; $35,000 2yo '20 OBSOPN. Lifetime Record: GSW, 4-2-2-0, $165,200.
Last Start: 2nd GII San Felipe S., SA, Mar. 6
Next Start: GI Runhappy Santa Anita Derby, SA, Apr. 3
Accomplishments: 2nd GIII Sham S.
Equineline PPs. KY Derby Points: 14.

Every Top 12 list should include at least one Cinderella-type horse, and this Protonico colt who hammered for relatively short money ($1,000 at OBSWIN and  $35,000 OBSOPN) is it. This Bob Baffert-trained overachiever owns two wins and also twice ran second behind now-injured Life Is Good, and he's been a very capable workmate in the mornings for some of the better-bred and more expensive sophomores in Baffert's deep stable. Baffert earlier this year likened Medina Spirit to his 1997 Derby winner Silver Charm, who was similarly not an overly expensive OBS-sold colt ($16,500 OBSAUG yearling, $100,000 OBSAPR). Baffert also expressed a belief that this colt is more effective pressing the pace rather than setting it, so look for that strategy in the Apr. 3 GI Santa Anita Derby.

On the Bubble (in alphabetical order):

Collaborate (Into Mischief): This $600,000 FTSAUG 'TDN Rising Star' just turned three Mar. 22 and will aim to cap his birthday week with an upset in Saturday's Florida Derby. A geared-down 12 1/2-length MSW blowout win going a one-turn mile Feb. 27 (90 Beyer) signals this tall, athletic, fluid mover could make the jump in class.

Defunded (Dialed In): Here's your Santa Anita Derby sleeper. Impressive, easy win (83 Beyer) in MSW sprint right after the GI Santa Anita Derby; with stablemate Life Is Good out, he could get tossed into the deep end of the pool by Baffert.

Hidden Stash (Constitution): Only one gaining in the stretch of two Tampa stakes; mildly intriguing for a potential wake-up if he goes in the Blue Grass and gets a hot pace to chase.

Mandaloun (Into Mischief): Trainer Cox said “We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance” after this 'TDN Rising Star' was a beaten-fave no-show in the Louisiana Derby. “Right now I'll probably nominate him to the [Apr. 10 GIII Stonestreet] Lexington [S. at Keeneland] and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason. He ran out of horse fairly quickly.”

Roman Centurian (Empire Maker): Second in three-way photo in GIII Lewis; 'TDN Rising Star' listed last week as “probable” for Wood Memorial.

Rombauer (Twirling Candy): Last-to-first winner of the El Camino Real Derby was initially aiming for the Wood in New York, but defection of Life Is Good means he'll now stay in SoCal to contest Santa Anita Derby.

Triple Tap (Tapit): 'TDN Rising Star' and half-bro to Triple Crown winner American Pharoah owns an eye-catching MSW score sprinting. Baffert said post-race that he didn't want to rush this colt, but now that soph star Life Is Good is out of Derby consideration, this potential phenom  might advance on the depth chart.

Weyburn (Pioneerof the Nile): It's not often that you see a 46-1 shot earn a 95 Beyer against stakes company like this colt did in the one-turn-mile GII Gotham S. A stretch-out to nine furlongs in the Wood will test his mettle.

The post The TDN Derby Top 12 for March 23 appeared first on TDN | Thoroughbred Daily News | Horse Racing News, Results and Video | Thoroughbred Breeding and Auctions.

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Louisiana Derby Aftermath: Hot Rod Charlie Back to California; Mandaloun May Run In Lexington

The dust has settled after a thrilling 14-race card Saturday at Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots, with the TwinSpires.com Louisiana Derby (G2) and Oaks (G2) in the rearview mirror. Both the local Derby and Oaks offered 100-40-20-10 qualifying points for the May 1 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, and the April 30 Longines Kentucky Oaks, and several of the top finishers emerged with both races firmly on their calendar.

The connections for several of the major players had a chance to sleep on the results, evaluate how their respective horses came out their races, and plot a path to Churchill Downs. Fair Grounds media caught up with several trainers Sunday morning to get their thoughts moving forward.

Louisiana Derby:
Doug O'Neill, trainer, Hot Rod Charlie (Leandro Mora was trainer of record in Louisiana Derby) (1st): Charlie looked great this morning. He flies back to California on Tuesday. I love the spacing (six weeks) leading up to the Kentucky Derby. It's ideal. He's proven to travel well. I'm very proud of my nephew Patrick (with Boat Racing). He's a real good young man and I'm very excited for him and all of the owners. 

Scott Blasi, assistant trainer to Steve Asmussen, Midnight Bourbon (2nd): Big effort and he's another horse (like Clairiere) that's just going to continue to improve. I don't think distance will be an issue with him and the timing, back to the Derby, off this series here, there will be plenty of time to freshen up and run his best race. We'll train here for a week and ship a week from Sunday (the 28th). 

Greg Foley, trainer, O Besos (3rd): We all want to go forward after yesterday. The only question we had was the distance, and he answered that pretty good. He galloped out past the winner. We've got 25 (derby qualifying) points. If we got second, we wouldn't have to think about it, but now we have to hope we get in. we just have to wait and see. I don't want to run him back (before the Derby). I don't think it will affect our training. He's a dead-fit horse. We'll get hi back home next week (to Churchill Downs) and we'll just wait and see. If it gets us in, great, if it doesn't, oh well, we'll go from there. I'd like to try and get in the big one and hopefully that will get it done. At least we're not wondering any more (about the distance). 

Mike Stidham, trainer, Proxy (4th): He came back in good condition. I will discuss it with the Godolphin team and decide which direction we go in next.

Brad Cox, trainer, Mandaloun (6th as the 6-5 favorite): We couldn't come up with any reasons for the dull performance. We'll get him back to Kentucky, see how he trains, and then go from there. I've thought about it, but I think right now I'll probably nominate him to the Lexington (G3, April 10 at Keeneland) and we'll see. He was done at the half-mile pole, so I don't think the distance was the reason (he was so dull). He ran out of horse fairly quickly. He handled everything in the paddock, so to show up and get beat by those horses we had run so well against, that was obviously disappointing. He's not that bad. We were the favorite. It's almost like you'd like to see a reason or an excuse but we aren't seeing it yet. The six weeks (to the Derby) is almost a blessing. I don't think it's a bad thing. We'll see how he trains. I'm not going to change too much with him. He bounced out of it in good shape, scoped good, no issues. He'll probably go to Churchill at some point later this week. 

The post Louisiana Derby Aftermath: Hot Rod Charlie Back to California; Mandaloun May Run In Lexington appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.

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