This Saturday's $1 million Toyota Blue Grass Stakes drew a field of 11 3-year-olds aspiring to make their marks and move on to the Kentucky Derby in four weeks. The winner's share of 100 points on the “Road to the Derby” makes it a certainly that horse can run in the “Greatest Two Minutes in Sports” next month, but even finishing third (worth 30 points) could be enough for some horses which already have a few points to their names.
Leading the field is Tapit Trice (50 points to date), winner of the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby last month and having won three races in a row. Tampa Bay Derby runner-up Classic Car Wash (26 points) hopes to run as well or better in the Blue Grass Stakes and make his way on to the big dance on May 6. Raise Cain (54 points) is another strong contender, having proven he belongs near the top of the division with a decisive seven and one-half length win last month in the G3 Gotham Stakes in New York.
Verifying (14 points) was stakes placed last year as a 2-year-old when second in the G1 Champagne Stakes and finished fourth as the betting favorite in the G2 Rebel Stakes in his most recent race. Blazing Sevens (16 points) won the Champagne last fall before a fourth place effort in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile. However, his only start this year resulted in an eighth of nine finish in the G2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Sun Thunder (34 points) got on everyone's radar with a big finish from 10th to second in the G2 Risen Star Stakes in February, but that was followed up by a non-threatening fifth place effort in the G2 Louisiana Derby two weeks ago.
Hayes Strike (7 points) just won the non-graded Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Race Course in Maryland and he was competitive last fall as a 2-year-old when third in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes so appears to fit with these. Scoobie Quando (8 points) rallied fast in the stretch for second in the John Battaglia Stakes five weeks ago and is another lightly raced and potentially improving prospect. Clear the Air (5 points) earned five points when rallying for fifth in the Gotham and appears to need a lot of improvement to earn significant points in this race. Mendelssohns March and Major Blue complete the field of 11, with both entering stakes competition for the first time.
Analysis and top contenders:
I am going to start with Classic Car Wash, not because he's superior to the three likely public choices in Tapit Trice, Verifying and Raise Cain, but because it is very likely he will offer the highest odds of the quartet. The colt continues to improve with every start, having raised his 
Equibase® Speed Figures in four straight races, from 77, to 80, to 86 and then to 95. That last effort came when finishing second of 12 to Tapit Trice in the Tampa Bay Derby four weeks ago. In that race, Classic Car Wash began in ninth in the field of 12, advanced to fourth with a quarter mile to run, was third with an eighth of a mile to run, then made the lead and was accelerating before Tapit Trice showed his late kick to go by in the final sixteenth of a mile. I particularly like it when horses lead late in a race even if beaten by another horse or two because it shows they understand what their task is and they can respond to the jockey's cues to accelerate when needed. Now getting the services of Javier Castellano and with that last race 95 figure just three points below the top speed figure (98, by Tapit Trice) in the field, Classic Car Wash only has a slightly lesser probability than the top betting choice, but will offer about four times the return and that is why he is my top choice to win this year's Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Tapit Trice started showing excellent physical ability and mental toughness in the second start of his career last December when battling head-and-head in the final eighth of a mile, prevailing by a neck. The 96 figure earned at the time was very strong for a 2-year-old in December, comparable to the 98 figure Blazing Sevens earned winning the Champagne Stakes in October. In his third career start Tapit Trice pulled off to an eight-length win with the same 96 figure, then when sent to post as the prohibitive betting choice in the Tampa Bay Derby, he did not disappoint. Starting out 11th of 12 in that race, Tapit Trice showed little early speed until about three-sixteenths of a mile to run when reminded to start running harder by jockey Luis Saez. Continually passing horses, the colt went from 4 1/2 lengths back with an eighth of a mile to go to draw off by two lengths, using big strides to gobble up the ground. Horses have won the Blue Grass Stakes coming from far back and certainly the field high last race 98 figure earned in the Tampa Bay Derby can be improved upon in this race. On the other hand, there may be few horses interested in leading early in this race and the pace may be slower than average, which has potential to hamper the same kind of late kick Tapit Trice showed in his most recent race.
Verifying was highly regarded in the Rebel Stakes near the end of February, entering the gate as the 3 to 2 betting choice. This was because prior to that, in his 3-year-old debut in January, he had won easily by five lengths and earned an extremely strong 102 figure. Last fall Verifying proved to fit with the best 2-year-olds when making the lead late in the Champagne Stakes before being passed by winner Blazing Sevens, but he (as well as Blazing Sevens) did not follow through on that promise when finishing sixth of 10 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile. Allowed to mature over the winter, Verifying returned to win in his 3-year-old debut, with that 102 figure effort before his fourth place Rebel effort. Although disappointing, the poor quality of that effort might be discounted in favor of his previous top effort. This is because he wasn't as aggressively ridden in the Rebel as he had been previously and never really established a good position, particularly in the critical early stages of the stretch run when he was in traffic and continued to weave in and out behind other horses to find a clear path to run. With a jockey change to Tyler Gaffalione, this half-brother to champion Midnight Bisou ($7.4 million in earnings) may be able to get the lead shortly after the start and lead all the way to redeem himself in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes.
Raise Cain burst on the scene last month in the Gotham Stakes with an upset win at 23 to 1 odds. He had run well when second at the same odds two races prior to that in the Gun Runner Stakes, but after a non-threating fifth in another stakes it appeared to bettors he was not improving. That was not to be the case, as Raise Cain showed a lot of moxie when he rallied from seventh with a quarter mile to go, got completely stopped in traffic, then re-accelerated to forge to the front and draw off with a 91 figure. Since that race, Raise Cain has been working very nicely at Keeneland in the morning and gets the services of Joel Rosario, so can be expected once again to be passing many, if not all, in the stretch run of this race.
The rest of the field, with their best Equibase® Speed Figures, is Blazing Sevens (98), Clear the Air (94), Hayes Strike (91), Mendelssohns March (83), Major Blue (91), Scoobie Quando (94) and Sun Thunder (94).
Win Contenders:
Classic Car Wash
Tapit Trice
Verifying
Raise Cain
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes – Grade 1
Race 9 at Keeneland
Saturday, April 8 – Post Time 5:15 PM E.T.
One Mile and One Eighth
Three Years Old
Purse: $1 Million
T.V.: NBC 4:30 – 6 P.M. Eastern Time
The post Equibase Analysis: Classic Car Wash Offers Best Value In Blue Grass Stakes appeared first on Horse Racing News | Paulick Report.
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