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Hong Kong Racing Study Guide: Previewing The International Races

Some early, random thoughts on the Hong Kong International Races (HKIR) coming up on Dec. 10.

Click here the latest information on the HKIR

VASE

I think that Shahryar will be the strongest play of the four HKIR races. He is a multiple Group 1 stakes winner and the 2,400 meters of the Vase (G1) will be perfect for him having won the Sheema Classic (G1) in 2022 and the Japanese Derby (G1) in 2021 at the trip. Yes, it's been a long time since he had his picture taken but, in my opinion, he has this group over a barrel.

In the Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), he saved ground throughout but found himself lacking room coming out of the final turn. Three times, his rider Cristian Demuro had to tap on the brakes when he looked for room on the outside. He went back to the inside but by then, Auguste Rodin had stormed through the narrow gap and won over Up to the Mark. Shahryar was a half-length behind in third and had Demuro stayed on the inside, he might have gotten the trip that Ryan Moore got aboard Auguste Rodin.

The son of the immortal Deep Impact should thrive on the ground at Sha Tin and looks too tough for this group.

SPRINT

The Sprint (G1) will showcase the world's highest rated sprinter in local hero Lucky Sweynesse. The winner of eight races from 10 starts here last year, he won three Group 1 stakes at the Sprint's distance of 1,200 meters. He was sixth in this race last year when he was stuck in traffic due to a very slow pace and will be out for revenge.

Trainer Manfred Man ran Lucky Sweynesse on opening day in September and was second to Victor the Winner while conceding a hefty 20 pounds. Six weeks later, he was victimized by a very slow pace and his dramatic surge missed by a whisker while conceding 14 pounds to Sight Success. Last out in the Jockey Club Sprint (G2), he overcame another dawdling pace while only conceding five pounds to Victor the Winner.

His middle sectionals have been sensational and now he should get the right set-up with a bigger field and stronger pace. He seems to thrive on work so his fourth start of the young season should have him at a peak. Wellington is still going strong and the top Euro invader looks to be Highfield Princess, a 6-year-old mare that seems to be better going five furlongs than six. Lucky Sweynesse should rule here at short odds.

CUP

Romantic Warrior made history when he shipped to Australia and won the Cox Plate (G1). He won the Cup (G1) last year in a tour-de-force performance in stakes record time but that was off a domestic preparation. How he bounces back from his trip remains to be seen and he will have to contend with Aidan O'Brien's Luxembourg, a Group 1 stakes winner at two, three and four. Last out, he was a half-length behind Auguste Rodin in the Irish Champion Stakes (G1) going this distance and should be the main danger to Romantic Warrior.

MILE

Golden Sixty is now eight years old and hasn't run since April 30 last year when he won the Champions Mile (G1) in good time. He won four of five starts last year but lost the Mile (G1) to California Spangle when Zac Purton put on a riding clinic and held on by a nose after controlling the race. Purton has been replaced by Matthew Chadwick aboard California Spangle who still could be the one to catch in the deep stretch.

Golden Sixty's barrier trials look solid enough but, without a prep race at the age of eight, how will the multiple Horse of the Year do first out? Older horses can fool you and I will be curious to see what his weight will be. The son of Medaglia d'Oro raced last year at around 1,120 pounds and I wouldn't want him to show up much higher than that.

As fast as California Spangle can be, he can sit and stalk and at level weights will be tough again. Beauty Eternal won the Jockey Club Mile (G2) last out for Zac Purton who was getting his revenge over California Spangle when he flew home in 22.75 seconds. Purton can sit off the pace going into the turn then see how the race is unfolding.

Japan has five entrants in the Mile and the highest rated are Danon the Kid, who will need a fast pace to set up his closing kick, and Serifos, who won the Mile Championship (G1) last year against a strong field in good time.

Dick Powell is a seasoned horse racing professional with over 35 years of experience in all aspects of the industry. His horse racing consultant business handles business and legislative issues. He is an acknowledged expert on domestic and international simulcasting, account wagering, player rewards/incentives, gaming at racetracks and fan education.

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America’s Day At The Races To Expand Coverage Of Oaklawn Park

The New York Racing Association Inc. (NYRA) announced Sunday that America's Day at the Races, the acclaimed national telecast produced by NYRA in partnership with FOX Sports, will expand its coverage of the 2023-24 meet at Oaklawn Park.

Highlighted by the Grade 1, $1.5 million Arkansas Derby on March 30, the 2023-24 Oaklawn Park meet opens on Friday, December 8 and continues through Saturday, May 4. The 2023-24 Oaklawn meet will include 47 stakes races over the course of 66 race days at the Hot Springs, Arkansas oval.

As part of a multi-year agreement, America's Day at the Races will feature daily analysis and handicapping of Oaklawn Park racing as well on-site coverage from NYRA television personalities throughout Opening Weekend, Smarty Jones weekend, Rebel weekend, Arkansas Derby weekend, Apple Blossom weekend and Oaklawn Handicap weekend.

Additionally, NYRA and Oaklawn Park will offer a new Cross Country Pick 5 wager each day when both Aqueduct Racetrack and Oaklawn Park conduct racing. The special wager will first be offered on Friday, December 8.

The Cross Country Pick 5 requires bettors to pick the winner of five select races from Aqueduct Racetrack and Oaklawn Park. The minimum bet for the multi-track, multi-race wager is 50 cents.

Wagering on the Cross Country Pick 5 is available on ADW platforms and at simulcast facilities across the country with each day featuring a mandatory payout of the net pool.

America's Day at the Races will present daily coverage and analysis of the fall meet at Aqueduct Racetrack on the networks of FOX Sports. For the complete broadcast schedule, visit https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing/tv-schedule.

NYRA Bets is the official wagering platform of Aqueduct Racetrack, and the best way to bet every race of the fall meet. Available to horseplayers nationwide, the NYRA Bets app is available for download today on iOS and Android at www.NYRABets.com.

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Pick 6 Carryover Of $35,164 On Saturday’s Cigar Mile Program At Aqueduct

Saturday's card at Aqueduct Racetrack will feature a Pick 6 carryover of $35,164 after the multi-race wager went unsolved on Friday's nine-race program.

The $1 Pick 6 returned $11,721.50 to bettors who selected 5-of-6 winners correctly.

The sequence kicked off in Race 4 with the Jesus Romero-trained Hang Tight [No. 3, $61] upsetting a nine-furlong claiming tilt with Luis Rivera, Jr. aboard. The Chad Brown-trained Nikitis [No. 1, $6] followed in Race 5 with a narrow graduation over Curlin's Girl in a seven-furlong maiden special weight with Manny Franco up.

Race 6 saw the Isaac Castillo-piloted My Man Matty [No. 5, $15] capture a six-furlong state-bred allowance for trainer Bruce Levine, one race before Heman Harkie guided Blu Grotto [No. 10, $6.70*] back to the winner's circle for conditioner Rudy Rodriguez in a one-mile claimer.

The Linda Rice-trained Hot Fudge [No. 5, $5.20*] lived up to her 8-5 favoritism in Race 8 when taking a one-mile optional claimer for fillies and mares with Jose Lezcano at the helm.

With just one horse covered in the final leg, the Robert Klesaris-trained Flight Control [No. 7, $75.50] posted the biggest upset in the sequence when graduating on debut in Race 9, a six-furlong maiden for state-bred juvenile fillies, with Eliseo Ruiz in the irons.

Saturday's Pick 6 sequence begins in Race 5 at 1:48 p.m. Eastern and includes the Grade 2, $250,000 Demoiselle in Race 7, the Grade 3, $200,000 Go for Wand in Race 8, the Grade 2, $250,000 Remsen in Race 9 and the Grade 2, $500,000 Cigar Mile Handicap presented by NYRA Bets in Race 10. First post for the 10-race card is 11:50 a.m.

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Accretive Could Gravitate To Cigar Mile Handicap Victory

Saturday's Grade 2, $750,000 Cigar Mile Handicap brings a full field of 12 together running the one-turn mile trip at Aqueduct.

Three of the group will be returning on four weeks rest after competing in Grade 1 Breeders' Cup races and all three were well-beaten but fit at the level based on top races prior to that. Hoist the Gold is one of the trio, having won the Grade 2 Phoenix Stakes in October prior to a sixth-place effort in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. Three Technique finished eighth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint after victory in the Grade 2 John A. Nerud Stakes two races prior. Senor Buscador won the Grade 2 San Diego Handicap in July and most recently was seventh in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

Others bring top credentials into the race, particularly a trio that just finished first, second and third in the Grade 2 Forty Niner Stakes at this distance and at Aqueduct on October 28. In the Forty Niner, previously known as the Kelso Handicap, Everso Mischievous was victorious by a half-length over Dr Ardito, with Accretive another nose behind in third.

Among the others, Coastal Mission has won eight of nine races this year including six in a row, though none were graded stakes, the most recent being in the West Virginia Breeders' Classic Stakes. Offaly Cool won the M.P. Ballezzi Appreciation Mile Stakes in mid-October and hopes to run as well in his first graded stakes try. High Oak earned his best placing in a stakes race this year when second in the Grade 3 Bold Ruler Stakes near the end of October and also won the Grade 2 Saratoga Special last year as a two year old. Cascais has only run three times but makes his second start following a fine second place finish after nearly a year off for Chad Brown, who also saddles Accretive and Dr Ardito.

Pipeline has a couple of in the money finishes in stakes races in his career, most recently when third in the Grade 1 Forego Stakes in the summer of 2022, but he has not been competitive in three races this year. Castle Chaos rounds out the field, entering the race off an allowance level win and running in a stakes race for the first time.

Main win contenders:

Accretive gets slight preference among the top three finishers in the Forty Niner because of a “common race” handicapping theory which has had a good deal of success over the years. This theory states that when two or three horses finish close together in a previous race, often their positions will be reversed the next time they meet.

This theory has a lot of value in handicapping this year's Cigar Mile, because although he was third, beaten a half-length at the finish, Accretive might have won the Forty Niner if not for what occurred at the start. When the gates opened, Accretive broke just a bit to his right and a bit slowly and almost veered into the horse just outside of him. Jockey Irad Ortiz, Jr. had to correct Accretive to his left, and in doing so the horse lost a couple of lengths. Finding himself four lengths back after a half-mile, as compared to within a half-length in his two victories this year, Accretive was then also forced to go about five paths wide on the far turn. Nevertheless, Accretive fought gamely to be within a half-length of the lead with yards to go, but that early expenditure of energy cost him the needed kick, so much so that he was passed late and lost second place by a nose.

Prior to the Forty Niner, Accretive earned a career-best 110 Equibase Speed Figure when beaten just a length and a half by Cody's Wish in the Vosburgh Stakes. Considering Cody's Wish put on a show to win the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile in his next start after the Vosburgh, we can conclude Accretive is going to run the best race of his career (with a clean start) and may be the one to beat in this year's Cigar Mile Handicap.

Dr Ardito found himself 11 lengths behind the early leader after a half-mile of the Forty Niner had been run, and 10 lengths behind eventual winner Everso Mischievous. However, jockey Manny Franco, who has now ridden the horse in 11 of his 12 career starts, got Dr Ardito to pick up the pace on the far turn, getting to within four lengths of the leader at that stage of the race. After running five paths wide on that turn, Dr Ardito put in a visually impressive late run to come up just a half-length short, earning a 103 figure just one point shy of the winner. Dr Ardito truly loves the Aqueduct main track, where he has won five of seven races and has finished second in two others, the fastest of which earned a 107 figure which is higher than the career-best 104 figure Everso Mischievous earned in his most recent race and not far from the Accretive's 110 best figure. Certainly if the pace is fast as it was in the Forty Niner. Dr Ardito has a chance to run past the field and win.

There's no knocking Everso Mischievous, who has won four of six races and finished second in the other two. His figures have improved consistently all season, from 97 in June to 98 in August, to 99 in September, to 104 winning the Forty Niner. In that race, Everso Mischievous moved up from second and engaged in a three horse battle on the turn before emerging with a half-length margin and holding the same margin to the wire. As a three year old, Everso Mischievous still has improving to do, and as such has every right to win his second graded stakes in a row.

The rest of the field, with their best Equibase Speed Figures, is Cascais (103), Castle Chaos (102), Coastal Mission (114), High Oak (93), Hoist the Gold (111), Offaly Cool (111), Pipeline (105), Senor Buscador (115) and Three Technique (110).

Win Contenders, in preference order:

Accretive

Dr Ardito

Everso Mischievous

Cigar Mile Handicap – Grade 2, $500,000

Aqueduct

Saturday, December 2 – Race 10. Post Time 4:12 p.m. ET

One Mile, 3-Year-Olds and Upward

Ellis Starr is national racing analyst for Equibase

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